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00:00:15
Yeah.
00:00:22
Welcome, everyone to fantasy Foresight, the podcast where your host and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com coming to you from the Rambo Fix your company studios.
00:00:32
I'm Ben, and I'm Jay.
00:00:34
You ready to get rolling, J? You know it.
00:00:36
Let's do this.
00:00:37
All right, let's go.
00:00:41
Welcome in everyone.
00:00:42
It is Sunday, October 11th.
00:00:44
We've got our guy Steve at f f Underscore Encyclopedia with us.
00:00:48
We've got a whole new list of buys and sells verse, their aggregate projections heading into week five.
00:00:53
And once again, fantasy Foresight, the podcast is live.
00:00:56
How you doing today, J? Then you know, we thought Week five was gonna be, you know, redemption week for this podcast.
00:01:05
And we thought maybe things might settle down and get back to normal, but already news this morning.
00:01:10
Ah, game postponed.
00:01:12
Maybe another one on the way.
00:01:14
It's just not going to be Ah, calm season in the NFL.
00:01:18
You know what the drama I love It gives us something to talk about.
00:01:22
Keeps everything interesting.
00:01:23
So I'm ready to go, man.
00:01:25
Steve, how are you doing this morning? I'm doing pretty well.
00:01:29
I actually woke up this morning.
00:01:30
Had a little bit of like the playoff PBJ is in my stomach, probably because you know it was a Browns fan.
00:01:39
This is playoff type atmosphere when you're three and one playing another three teams.
00:01:43
Eso a little nervous but really excited.
00:01:46
Just watch football on.
00:01:47
Thanks for having me on guys.
00:01:48
Always a good time and looking forward to the episode.
00:01:51
Glad to have you back absolutely on just a quick disclaimer.
00:01:55
If this is your first time listening, just know that we're speaking in terms of single Q b full PPR redraft by default and all of our fantasy finishes as well as fantasy points per game.
00:02:05
Calculations are based on full PPR Limited two weeks one through 16 according to fantasy pros dot com.
00:02:11
Alright, you know, we came into this by cells episode with two more players to give you wanna buy and want to sell? Uh, then we're actually going to deliver.
00:02:22
Why? Because we just got the news that Stupid cove it has now canceled or postponed a game for us that was already moved back to 5 p.m.
00:02:32
Eastern time tomorrow.
00:02:33
On Monday, I was looking forward to yet another doubleheader on Monday night football.
00:02:37
That's the one of the little perks of this whole situation.
00:02:40
But now more positive test people not doing what they should be doing.
00:02:44
You guys a millionaire professionals lock it up so we can get our football.
00:02:48
Thank you very much.
00:02:49
So we have now.
00:02:50
Quick, you know, we need to give you a little bit of an alert to that.
00:02:54
Tuesday game is also in jeopardy.
00:02:57
So just, you know, set your lineups today with the expectation of those guys.
00:03:01
May not be going because right now the Tennessee Titans had another positive tests in their front office or coaching staff hasn't been together for 12 consecutive days.
00:03:10
It I just don't see a path to where that game is going to be played between Buffalo and Tennessee on Tuesday.
00:03:16
So with that in mind, adjust your lineups accordingly.
00:03:20
You know there's other countries in the world that got this whole virus licked already.
00:03:25
Like it's it's over.
00:03:26
Just saying, Do what you gotta dio we need our football e o.
00:03:32
Yeah, we're not gonna go into all the names that we could have been doing way better with all this, and now it's costing us um, NFL games, and I'm sick of it.
00:03:39
So we have got a list of 13 total buys and sells for you.
00:03:43
I'm sorry.
00:03:44
11 Total buys and sells for you this week.
00:03:46
Six BIS five cells and first stop.
00:03:50
We're starting off with Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew.
00:03:54
His current aggregate projection is quarterback 24.
00:03:57
Total foresight is buying that, giving him a rank of Q B 11 heading into Week five.
00:04:02
The Jags air on the road at Houston today at one PM Houston somehow is a 5.
00:04:07
5 point favorite.
00:04:08
Uh, the over under is 54 a half, so they are expecting points to be scored over there in Vegas and a total foresight.
00:04:15
Gardner Minshew has the fourth best quarterback strength of schedule this week.
00:04:20
Now moving over to pro football focus.
00:04:21
He does have the 11th worst pass block advantage when you look at his offensive line vs the opposing defensive line, and when you look at his individual wide receiver verse defensive back matchups, his wide receivers have the 18th, 26 41st overall ranked individual wide receiver Devi matchups, respectively, on then also a pro football focus.
00:04:41
They give him the second best quarterback matchup this week, so it looks like it's all online form this this week.
00:04:47
Gardner has been a top 15 quarterback in three or four weeks this season, and all he has to do this week is beat quarterback 24.
00:04:55
Plus, he's averaged more than 320 past yards over the past three weeks, and the Titans have allowed seven past touchdowns.
00:05:03
I'm sorry the Texans not to tighten The Texans have allowed seven pass touchdowns with no interceptions, two opposing quarterbacks over the first four weeks this season, not Onley in my buying Gardner verse, that aggregate projection of quarterback 24.
00:05:17
But I also think he's streamer worthy this week.
00:05:20
You know, I got to say, Look, we're fantasy foresight.
00:05:23
We're growing our brand.
00:05:24
We're a small company, you know, working our way up in this world and in this industry.
00:05:29
And it's just interesting to see when that when a place like pro football focus has all their metrics and their metrics line up with our metrics.
00:05:37
It's it's kind of nice to see it all come together like that.
00:05:41
We have the fourth best quarterback strength of schedule for Gardner Minshew this week.
00:05:45
Pro football focus.
00:05:46
That gives him the second best.
00:05:47
Um, but you know, with the with the other wrecks that you mentioned then the 11th worst past block advantage and then what his wide receivers were facing.
00:05:55
I kind of like our our metric a little bit better to be honest with you, but still, that's a far cry from Q B 24.
00:06:01
I expect him to easily beat that.
00:06:03
However, last week I thought everything made sense in this world and very, very little of it came true.
00:06:09
But you know, the tiebreaker this week for me is I'm trading in the RV and I'm upgrading.
00:06:15
That's gotta be a good sign.
00:06:17
I'm buying Gardner Minshew its RV week.
00:06:20
Let's go, buddy O.
00:06:23
J.
00:06:25
Um, I will also by Gardner Minshew this week.
00:06:28
Uh, it just makes too much sense to do anything otherwise, you know, given everything that you know, Benny laid out before us.
00:06:35
And at the end of the day, quarterback 24.
00:06:39
We saw it last week, even even in a game where men she comes out, you know, struggles early on, struggles to get anything going they fall behind.
00:06:46
Well, he's still gonna garbage time his way to putting up a decent stat line and being fantasy relevant for the week.
00:06:53
So, you know, like you said, man, he's definitely on the streaming radar this week.
00:06:58
He has to be and, you know, quarterback 24.
00:07:01
I I just kind of find that laughable that that's his aggregate production on the week.
00:07:05
Yeah, between buys and co vid, you're already down four quarterbacks, and if we lose tomb or you're down tomb or so you think he's gonna be one of the worst quarterbacks and fantasy this week, we disagree.
00:07:16
Uh, it makes total sense that we would be right.
00:07:18
So, of course, we'll probably get this one wrong.
00:07:19
We're gonna move on to somebody else.
00:07:22
We've got Carolina Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
00:07:25
He's currently aggregate projected Q B 19 total foresight is buying that as well.
00:07:30
Enlist him his Q B 13 this week.
00:07:32
The Panthers are on the road at Atlanta today at 1 p.m.
00:07:36
Atlanta is a two point favorite with a nice over under a 53.
00:07:38
5 At total foresight.
00:07:41
You can see that Teddy B has the second best quarterback strength of schedule this week.
00:07:45
Now at pro football Focus, you can also see he does have the fifth worst pass block advantage this week.
00:07:51
But his top three wide receivers are all inside the top 45 individual wide receiver.
00:07:56
Db matchups on.
00:07:58
He also has given a pro football focus.
00:08:00
The 17th ranked quarterback match up this week.
00:08:03
This season.
00:08:04
For me, it comes down to this.
00:08:05
Facing the Falcons defense has equated to the Q B one overall in both Week one and Week two, and a Raj just finished is the Q B three overall just last week.
00:08:18
Plus, even the the hapless tandem of Nick Foles and mixed Robiskie combined for over 300 pass yards verse the Falcons in Week three.
00:08:28
So clearly everyone can pass against Atlanta just like Minshew.
00:08:33
Not Onley in my buying Teddy versus his aggregate projection of q B 19.
00:08:37
But I also think he is streamer worthy this week, all right, you know what? Because this makes so much sense and it's a plus match up and everything.
00:08:46
I'm going to sell Teddy Bridgewater.
00:08:48
Why? Because I have D J.
00:08:50
Moore on a lot of my teams and I really need him to finally step up and produce this season.
00:08:56
And it all makes sense for all the reasons you just stated.
00:08:59
So of course it won't happen.
00:09:01
And that's the Onley reason.
00:09:02
That is the Onley reason I am selling Teddy Bridgewater this week because it just makes too much sense.
00:09:10
I mean, I can't blame you for that logic.
00:09:13
However I do have to buy this one is.
00:09:16
Well, like you said Jay, it just makes too much sense.
00:09:20
Does e mean you look at the matchup? Uh, you know Atlanta.
00:09:25
You know whether Julio is completely healthy or not? You know, Calvin Ridley is off the injury report.
00:09:30
They have plenty of weapons there.
00:09:32
Carolina's defense isn't really, could it? Also, you just you have to imagine there's gonna be a fair amount of points that were put up in this one.
00:09:40
And you know, even if Mike Davis gets a couple of TDs on the ground, I have to think that Bridgewater will.
00:09:46
He'll find his way.
00:09:47
He'll climb up to around 300 yards and a score to, and that puts him easily right over quarterback, 19 on the week So I'm gonna go ahead and buy this one as well.
00:09:56
And I think that that's probably Bridgewater's floor.
00:09:59
There's obviously potential where he does finish inside the top 12 this week.
00:10:05
Yes, sir.
00:10:06
And J, you know, I hear you, man, but me and Steve, we gotta We gotta stay true and understand that, like all of our indicators, it'll mean something.
00:10:14
And, you know, but I can't.
00:10:16
Neither of us can fault you for going your way to my logic on the next one.
00:10:20
Oh, hey, The next one is one of the few bright spots of this fantasy season for me and my league of record.
00:10:26
And we're talking about Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson.
00:10:30
Hey is currently aggregate projected RB 18 in Week five.
00:10:34
Total foresight is buying that has him all the way up at RB six.
00:10:38
Uh, the Jags are on the road like we said with Menchu at Houston today at one, Houston is almost a six point favorite.
00:10:45
Don't know how.
00:10:46
45 40 54 a half over under For that game.
00:10:50
At total foresight, you can see that James Robinson has the second best running back strength of schedule this week.
00:10:56
He does have the ninth worst run block advantage, but I'll say this.
00:11:00
James Robinson is average more than 110 total yards per game so far this season, and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden just came out yesterday and said he wants to make sure J.
00:11:11
Rob gets more second half touches, which also alludes to more involvement in the passing game because they tend to be down so far this season in the second half.
00:11:20
And we saw this play out already last week as J.
00:11:23
Rob was the Onley Jags running back toe log, a single target in Week four.
00:11:28
He had four targets, and not even Chris Thompson had one.
00:11:32
It's only taken four weeks, but it sounds like they finally realized they have a bell cow stud in Jacksonville.
00:11:39
I'm all in on J.
00:11:40
Robert running back 18 this week.
00:11:43
It's a buy for me, and I've just got to say real quick.
00:11:46
I picked this guy up in Week one to be my Flex behind CMC and Mostert.
00:11:50
He was never intended to be the RB one on my roster and the man has still served very well in that position.
00:11:58
Like, if there are people in your league still not believing in J Rob, go get him.
00:12:03
All right, I'm gonna sell J Rob.
00:12:05
And here's my reasoning.
00:12:06
Why? Uh, like you said, Jay Gruden said he needs to be more involved in the second half, and that would all lead.
00:12:12
Well, you'd think home run, he's gonna be an r b one, so of course it's not gonna happen.
00:12:17
What have we done? So, yes, we have heard coaches come out and say, you know, whatever they're going to say, and then you get to game time in the exact opposite eso all lies like you said, Ben.
00:12:29
So I'm gonna say no, that's not gonna happen.
00:12:31
And even, maybe more so than that, nobody has had worse luck so far this fantasy season than foresight.
00:12:38
Ben over there in the fact that he's riding him in a do or die week in his league of record.
00:12:43
I got to say, I gotta go with what's happened so far this season.
00:12:47
He's gonna be on the short end, so I'm gonna sell James Robinson.
00:12:53
Man, I have toe be honest with you guys.
00:12:55
I'm really tourney on this one.
00:12:58
You know, I've been just spinning my wheels the whole time.
00:13:00
Both of you guys have been giving her reasoning for buying or selling James Robinson this week.
00:13:05
Uh, you know, actual mind, Um, or just you know what? Well, some of why I'm tourney is, you know, I am going to buy into Menchu having a decent week, and you know that I also wanna buy into James Robinson.
00:13:19
But then also, you know, we finally the Houston Texans finally rid themselves of Bill O Brien e.
00:13:24
I think that that team is probably going to come out and play like it's the Super Bowl, you know, in rally around Romeo Coronel eso.
00:13:33
You know, I could see it being a tougher sledding type of day.
00:13:36
However, James Robinson, you know, running back 18 on the week.
00:13:42
That's such a oh, I'm gonna tell you, man, you know what Here and you say that gets me thinking Maybe this will be a run heavy game, and I am all for that.
00:13:52
Let's get some David Johnson and some James Robinson heavy Carey's well in like like many alluded to I I do think that, you know, even even when If they find themselves in a situation where the game script is going away from running the football, they still need to find ways to get him the ball through the Oeiras.
00:14:11
Well, he's shown that he is more than capable off catching the ball, the backfield, making big plays and so much more so than Chris Thompson.
00:14:20
So, um, I'm gonna go ahead and buy.
00:14:24
I'm gonna buy.
00:14:25
I think he just I think he just squeaks in there like he'll he'll finish above running back 18 on the week.
00:14:30
But it's gonna be pretty close, but I'm gonna buy the one week that they actually heavily involved him in the passing game was Week three.
00:14:38
He had six catches on six targets for 83 yards.
00:14:41
Um, you know, I mean, this guy should be game script proof if you watch him the number one correlative stat in fantasy football when it comes to these wide receivers running backs, tight ends is yards per game.
00:14:55
And when the man's averaging over 100 total yards per game this season and they they've still been taking him off the field for old man Chris Thompson.
00:15:02
If that stops and they only take him off the field when he needs it.
00:15:05
Dude could be elite for the rest of the year if he could stay healthy if he's game script proof.
00:15:10
So I need you this week.
00:15:12
Jay. Rob. Come through for me, brother.
00:15:14
Uh, next up.
00:15:16
A guy that I am surprised in 2020 heading into Week five made our buy list on this podcast.
00:15:23
But this is really all This is where we're at with this cove in football season, and you may have to depend on a guy like New York Giants running back Devonta Freeman.
00:15:33
He's currently aggregate projected RB 38 total.
00:15:36
Foresight is buying that.
00:15:37
Enlist him is our B 27 heading into Week five.
00:15:40
The Giants are on the road at Dallas today at 4:25 p.m.
00:15:44
Dallas is a nice 8.
00:15:45
5 point favorite, and that game has an over under of 53.
00:15:50
A total foresight.
00:15:51
You can see that the Giants running backs have the eighth best running back strength of schedule this week.
00:15:56
They do have the six worth worst run block advantage, but I will say this.
00:16:01
Last week, Freeman lead the Giants backfield with 15 total touches versus Galman six, and Dion Lewis is three.
00:16:10
He converted those 15 looks into our B 24 overall.
00:16:14
He should get as much or more opportunity this week verse a much less daunting defense.
00:16:19
And this time all he has to do is outpaced running back 38 all by that and your ability to flex him this week if you need Thio.
00:16:28
Um, sorry, just addressing some commissioner issues in our league of record coming up this morning.
00:16:33
Oh, boys, for some charity requests.
00:16:36
No kidding.
00:16:37
Listen, man, we take pride in how difficult our league of record is.
00:16:41
We make it extremely difficult with short benches.
00:16:44
We adopted one Covic Onley relief spot heading into this season, knowing Cove it was going to wreak havoc online ups.
00:16:53
And now it's been brought forward that we should have replacements and things like that to allow for players.
00:16:59
And the answer is going to be a resounding no.
00:17:02
Our league is our league because of how difficult it is, but we'll put it up to a vote anyways and see what the membership has to say.
00:17:09
For Devonta Freeman.
00:17:12
I am going to sell.
00:17:14
Also this week.
00:17:16
I've seen his involvement.
00:17:18
I just you know, I just don't think he's going to be as involved in the passing game. Aziz.
00:17:25
He needs to be looked running back.
00:17:27
38 shouldn't be hard to eclipse.
00:17:29
I I understand that.
00:17:30
But for that reason, it just won't make sense that he can even beat RB 38.
00:17:34
So he's gonna finish in his RB 45 I'm gonna be correct and selling Devonta Freeman.
00:17:41
Yeah, I'm actually going to go ahead and sell.
00:17:43
Freeman is well this week and the primary reason being, I think that I just think that, you know, it's at Dallas.
00:17:50
Dallas is they're reeling right now.
00:17:53
They just got embarrassed last week, and, you know, I just think that they're going to come out and pretty much just bury the Giants in this one.
00:18:01
And you know, Freeman, I just don't think the opportunities will be there for him and what he does get.
00:18:06
I just don't think he'll produce to that level so that that's where I met with Devonta Freeman this week.
00:18:12
I'm gonna go ahead and sell, Yeah, sound logic, the the thing that I think saves him is he was.
00:18:17
He was very involved in the passing game.
00:18:19
So if this game script does get out of hand, uh, he could still have this fantasy days that way and my other.
00:18:26
The other reason that I like him this week is because I just think that Rams defense, which he actually put up our B 24 numbers verse last week, is just night and day.
00:18:34
Better than that Dallas defense.
00:18:35
So RB 38.
00:18:37
It's not that hard to come by.
00:18:38
I understand your guy's rationale, and it's, you know, it's a lot more fun when it's not just straight chalk and straight consensus on this podcast under here.
00:18:46
The varying ideas, uh, moving on to our next guy this week at the wide receiver position.
00:18:51
We've got Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
00:18:54
You might be asking yourself, though he's an obvious start.
00:18:56
Why is he on this list? Well, his aggregate projection seems really low to me at wide receiver. 17.
00:19:03
Uh, total foresight is buying that emphatically as we have enlisted his wide receiver three this week.
00:19:08
The Bills air at Tennessee hopefully on Tuesday, Tuesday at 7 p.
00:19:13
m.
00:19:14
on a total force that you can see that digs in the wide receivers for the Bills have the seventh best strength of schedule at the position this week.
00:19:20
The and pro football focus.
00:19:22
You can see they have the 13th ranked pass block advantage and for the individual wide receiver defensive back match up, it's a little lower, but it's Stefon Diggs.
00:19:31
He's an immense talent, but it does only come in at the 39th ranked individual match up this week.
00:19:37
But again, it's wide receiver 17 and we're talking about stuff on digs in that offense this season.
00:19:42
And Digs is wide Receiver six on the year in fantasy points per game and so far is the fifth most consistent wide receiver in football.
00:19:51
Thus far, he has met or exceeded his current aggregate projection of wide receiver 17 2 out of four times this season and verse that Titan secondary This week.
00:20:00
I'm buying his ability to meet or exceed wide receiver 17 for the third time in 2020.
00:20:05
Yeah, I don't think he's gonna maybe get to wide receiver three this week because Tennessee, you know their defense tends to play pretty darn tough and that that team in general tends to play teams Very tough.
00:20:17
I'm not sure this games even gonna happen anyway, so I'm not too concerned about it.
00:20:21
But the reason I'm going to buy digs is because I'm facing him in multiple leagues.
00:20:27
So I'm hoping the fact that I buy him means that he's gonna make me wrong and not live up to WR 17 which I could really use in those other leagues and pick up some wins this week.
00:20:37
So I'm gonna buy Stefon Diggs this week. Let's go, buddy.
00:20:41
Yeah, I'm right there with both you guys.
00:20:43
I think that I think he'll smash wide receiver 17 this week.
00:20:47
Actually, um, Tennessee, you know, traditionally, they are pretty tough defensively, and they fare a lot better, I think, against teams not definitely not through the air.
00:20:58
I think that, you know, they've been picked on quite a bit through the air this season.
00:21:02
So, you know, I just I think Stefon Diggs is going to smoke them.
00:21:06
So But, you know, we don't know if we'll even see that happened this week.
00:21:10
They might not even play.
00:21:12
Don't you love talking about games that might not even happen.
00:21:14
It's exactly I'm sitting here.
00:21:16
I'm like, Man, don't Don't Don't rack your mind too hard on this one ba*****t.
00:21:19
Steve, the next one.
00:21:20
Just ah, man, I could, uh, let's let's roll.
00:21:24
But let's roll into it.
00:21:26
Well, I think you might be looking past start next by and looking at your personal quarterback if I had to. Adventure.
00:21:33
You are talking about Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Dalton.
00:21:37
Schultz.
00:21:38
Hey, is aggregate projection tight end, 32.
00:21:42
That's why I'm rolling my eyes.
00:21:44
Like, of course, he should smash this.
00:21:46
I had to check that three times to make sure we were.
00:21:48
Actually, all of our feeds were getting in aggregate Projections for my was like, That's gotta be an error.
00:21:53
That can't be right.
00:21:54
No, it's right.
00:21:55
I don't know what people are doing or thinking, but there's not even 32 different tight end ones in the NFL this week, and we've got Enlisted a title and 30.
00:22:04
Okay, anyways, Obviously, total foresight is buying that because we have him listed as tight and five this week.
00:22:12
Home verse.
00:22:14
The Giant. Today it's 4 25.
00:22:16
Dallas again, is an over under They haven't over under 53 in this game, and there are 8.
00:22:21
5 point favorite.
00:22:22
Dalton Schultz has the best foresight, strength of schedule this week on a pro football focus.
00:22:29
You can see that the Cowboys have the 11th ranked pass block advantage on he does, though Dalton Schultz to have just the 20th ranked tight end match up this week.
00:22:38
Now, I'm not sure if Dalton Schultz is going to be tight end five this week, but I guarantee you, this guy is going to finish better than tight and 32 easy bye for me. I feel like I'm cheating.
00:22:48
Yeah, I'm with you, man.
00:22:50
Like, I wanna I wanna sell just because it makes absolutely zero sense that he wouldn't be able to eclipse tight end 32.
00:22:58
But, you know, you stated it.
00:22:59
There aren't even 32 teams playing this week, So all he has to do is be better than the worst starting tight end in the league in an air raid.
00:23:06
Essentially offense in a plus matchup.
00:23:09
So I mean, like even even for the impossible toe happen, he still has to be tight and 32 so I gotta buy this.
00:23:17
Yeah.
00:23:18
You know, it's funny with this one just because, you know, I my thought processes.
00:23:23
Yeah.
00:23:24
I don't think he'll perform very well this week because I think that New York's gonna get buried.
00:23:29
This will be a game that Dallas can just run Zeke down their throats.
00:23:33
They don't have to throw the ball much.
00:23:34
Dalton Schultz has put up some nice numbers and some extremely high volume passing games, but tied in 32.
00:23:42
Hey, will, It's like hell.
00:23:44
Still find a way.
00:23:45
I'm sure to get a handful.
00:23:47
You get one catch for one yard and be tight and 32 like that's it.
00:23:51
So so, yeah, this is one with, you know, I think he's I could see him landing on the low end, tight end to kind of radar this week, but, you know, tight and 32 I have toe.
00:24:06
I have to buy that.
00:24:07
So absolutely.
00:24:09
By 100% it's just Yeah, it's just a strange one, Like buying a guy.
00:24:14
You don't think it's really gonna have a decent game, But I honestly, I feel like you know that even I don't know, I feel like they're still gonna be plenty of past volume.
00:24:24
It's not that hard to be a tight end.
00:24:26
12 and Act loves thrown into his tight ends, but anyways, we're on the same page.
00:24:32
He's gonna be tight end 32 we'll just see what happens in that ballgame.
00:24:35
Moving on to our five cells for this week.
00:24:39
First up is who I thought Jay was.
00:24:41
Just alluding to is his Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz.
00:24:46
He is.
00:24:47
Currently he's currently aggregate projected.
00:24:49
Q B 11 total foresight agrees with you, Jay.
00:24:51
They are selling, and we have him listed as quarterback 20 to a total foresight.
00:24:56
The Eagles air at Pittsburgh today at one PM Pittsburgh is somehow just a seven point favorite, and the over under is 44 points.
00:25:04
Carson Wentz This week, folks has the worst quarterback strength of schedule in all of football.
00:25:10
At pro football focus, It gets worse.
00:25:13
They list him with the worst past block advantage this week, and it did Keeps getting worse.
00:25:19
He has the 23rd rain quarterback matchup at at Pro Football Focus and then also when looking at his wide receiver verse defensive back matchups, two of his three wide receivers have the 5th and 6th worst individual wide receiver DB matchup ranks, and his best one is 61st.
00:25:38
So from a fantasy perspective, once has drastically improved in the last two weeks versus the first two.
00:25:45
However, I just can't get past that worst ranked foresight, strength of schedule and pro football. Focus.
00:25:52
Past block advantage.
00:25:53
His wide receiver DB matchups are tough and his own matchup rank is, too.
00:25:57
And additionally, I worry about the quantity of big hits Carson is going to take this week verse that Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
00:26:04
So I'm selling his ability to be a Q B one all day.
00:26:08
I just hope the poor guy makes it through this game.
00:26:11
Uh, you know, the Eagles? They let Nick Foles go.
00:26:15
They didn't want to trade Carson Wentz.
00:26:17
They could have gotten a hall for once.
00:26:19
At that time, I wonder what they could get for once.
00:26:21
Now, probably not nearly the same price tag, and they let a guy go who led them to a Super Bowl? It was Super Bowl M V P.
00:26:28
I wonder if they're second guessing themselves on that decision, but yeah, then listen.
00:26:33
Pittsburgh maybe with the sole exception of Indianapolis at this point, this season has the best defense in this league right now, the way they are playing.
00:26:42
So the way Carson Wentz, even though he's been getting a little bit better week over week.
00:26:47
I mean, that's just a tough matchup.
00:26:48
He has nobody really to throw the ball to.
00:26:51
That offense has looked pretty poor, an anemic, and I just There's no way he's going to finish as a Q B one this week, a za, much as I want to be contrarian sometimes because things happen that just don't make sense.
00:27:04
I just don't see it this week for Philadelphia.
00:27:07
So I'm gonna agree.
00:27:08
And I'm gonna sell Carson ones.
00:27:10
Yeah, you know, aggregate projected rank of Q B 11.
00:27:15
It just really makes me wonder some of these people out there.
00:27:18
They're doing rankings on a weekly basis.
00:27:20
Like how I mean first come from Yeah.
00:27:24
I mean, what is there there? People out there that have him was like You be five this week and it's helping pull that number up.
00:27:30
I don't know, but to think that Carson Wentz going to finish this a Q B one this week just seems absolutely insane.
00:27:37
He's lacking past weapons.
00:27:39
Their offensive line is busted up.
00:27:42
Struggling Carson Wentz themselves gonna get busted up in this one.
00:27:45
And Carson Wentz has been inaccurate.
00:27:49
He's struggling.
00:27:50
He's got happy feet back.
00:27:51
I mean, it just I I can't like vomit quarterback 22 that, I mean, maybe he'll finish their, um maybe so, yeah, I have to sell this one.
00:28:03
So this might be one of the more emphatic cells I've ever had on this show.
00:28:09
Just good Lord, I'll tell you what.
00:28:14
When I when I go through and then picking these buys and sells every week, I do try to find the biggest numeric discrepancies from Ah, single position.
00:28:22
Like Carson Wentz was the hardest sell by our mechanical total foresight this week.
00:28:28
Let me throw some bonus onto this last week in, uh in Fantasy Pro's Quarterback rankings, total foresight was number five overall in Q B ranking accuracy.
00:28:42
Total foresight has him ranked as q b 22.
00:28:45
So just take that into account.
00:28:48
Yeah, yeah, don't don't player Carson Wentz this week, man, if you're thinking about playing Carson Wentz, please tweet one or all of us, and I guarantee you we will find a better one week option than Carson Wentz at the Pittsburgh this week.
00:29:02
Have you guys seen Pittsburgh's defense? Man? They got a bunch of killers over there.
00:29:06
Stay away from Pittsburgh's defense, man.
00:29:08
I hate it for the Browns, anyways.
00:29:10
Next up, we've got another cell of the week in Arizona.
00:29:14
Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake.
00:29:16
Speaking of crazy agri it projections, this guy is projected to be RB five this week total for sites selling that understands that he has a plus match up with the Jets.
00:29:27
And so we're bringing him in his RB 15.
00:29:29
Um uh, That's what I think compared to what he's done so far this year.
00:29:34
And the Cardinals are on the road versus that hapless Jets team who still have Adam Gates there at the helm.
00:29:39
So it's still gonna be crazy.
00:29:41
That's today at one PM Zona is a seven point favorite with an over under of 47 a half.
00:29:47
Now, for some reason, foresight, strength of schedule has him with the sixth best.
00:29:51
I understand it's the Jets, but at pro football focus, they list them.
00:29:55
The Cardinals, with the fifth worst run block advantage this week.
00:29:59
That's very surprising, Uh, peek behind the curtain type of stats where everybody is just projecting all.
00:30:04
It's gonna be a great game for everybody playing against the Jets.
00:30:07
Well, it looks like you might have a little bit more advantage passing the ball than you will running it.
00:30:11
So they and there are very pass happy team over there in Arizona, so that could play right into their hands.
00:30:17
Drakes best finish this season is R B 17 and that was all the way back in Week one.
00:30:23
And since then he hasn't even been a top 30 running back even one time.
00:30:28
And now he's supposed to be the running back five overall this week? Nope.
00:30:33
Not for me, man.
00:30:34
Not even verse the Jets.
00:30:36
In fact, I think his total foresight rank of R B 15 represents his ceiling this week.
00:30:42
Big time.
00:30:43
So for me? Yeah.
00:30:44
Listen, you know, we spoke about it on our last podcast that Kenyan Drake was noticeably absent late in their game last week.
00:30:51
We don't know if he picked up a little something injury wise, or if if he's even been nursing something so far, which would explain some of his lack of quality performances after being really one of the hottest commodities in the running back position during draft season.
00:31:06
So you know, it's just tough for me.
00:31:09
Then, you know, you you mentioned that Profootballfocus gives him the for the fifth worst run block advantage this week.
00:31:15
While total foresight has him as the sixth best running back strength of schedule, maybe that run block advantage is the only thing preventing him from having the first ranked running, running back strength of schedule this week.
00:31:28
You know our our metrics.
00:31:29
Take a look at their rushing a team's rushing production for the running back position against their matchups.
00:31:35
What they've given up to the running back position.
00:31:37
So it's strictly fantasy.
00:31:39
Scoring related, Um, so again, ah, plus matchup from that aspect.
00:31:44
But, you know, I just his usages concerning the fact that he may be nursing an injury is concerning.
00:31:50
The fact that you know he really hasn't looked great this season is concerning.
00:31:54
So again, I think running back 15 is pretty generous and much more accurate than RB five.
00:32:00
There's no way I'm betting on him to meet or exceed RB five.
00:32:03
So I'm selling hard on this one.
00:32:06
Yeah, I'm going to sell to you guys, you know, I know.
00:32:08
Look like like you guys both alluded to.
00:32:11
Yeah, it's It's the Jets.
00:32:12
And, you know, I think people just assume that that's an easy team to run the football against this act.
00:32:17
It's really not in all actuality and and man Kenyan direct just hasn't looked that good And for, you know, a team that is this past happy is Arizona is they really don't get Drake involved in that part of the game.
00:32:30
Which is very, um, surprising that we haven't seen Mawr of that this season, and it's really hurt.
00:32:37
Kenyan drinks overall fantasy value this season, his lack of production in the passing game.
00:32:42
So, uh, to see him finish this week is our be five.
00:32:47
Is it in the realm of possibility? I guess if he has one of those Kenyan Drake blow up games, which he's done before, it could happen.
00:32:55
But I'm not gonna bet on that with what I've seen so far this season.
00:32:58
So that said, like I said, Yeah, a cell.
00:33:03
I'll be shocked if he gets there like I said, the only way he does if he just goes bonkers, which I guess you could say he's do.
00:33:10
But I sure wouldn't put money on it, totally agree on.
00:33:15
But moving on to our next guy we've got.
00:33:18
I don't think he's made this podcast at this season and we're talking about Indianapolis Colts running back rookie Jonathan Taylor.
00:33:25
Hey! Is currently aggregate projected RB seven this week.
00:33:29
Total Force itis selling that listing him is R B 17.
00:33:33
The Colts are at Cleveland today at 4 25.
00:33:37
The Vegas line is totally even with an over under of 48 on now, I will say a lot of people probably think the Browns and just think capitalist defense.
00:33:47
But total foresight lists Jonathan Taylor with the third worst running back strength of schedule this week.
00:33:53
It will be very interesting to see who is correct between that and pro football focus, because pro football focus gives them the best run block advantage heading into Week five.
00:34:03
For the sake of my Browns fandom, I hope total foresight is more correct on that piece than pro football.
00:34:09
Focus on listen, number one, his opposing defense is not the same old Browns.
00:34:15
In fact, let me tell you a little bit about these new Browns.
00:34:18
This team has found something, and for the first time in a long as I can remember, the Browns elected to skip their scheduled off day last Monday because they were that eager to get back to work.
00:34:30
The Browns have got something for this Colts team this week, so I personally do not believe that this is a career week for J.
00:34:37
T.
00:34:38
I say that because e say it that way because that's what would have toe happen for him to hit our B seven this week.
00:34:45
Because he's finished any other week.
00:34:47
He's only been our b 14.
00:34:49
R B seven is a definite self for me.
00:34:52
Man like this guy has finished s so far throughout the season.
00:34:56
I am pulling up our consistency.
00:34:58
Right now He's been RB 15 r b 14 r, b 23 r B 37.
00:35:04
So overall he is going to have by far his best game of the year, his best game of his career.
00:35:10
This week I'm selling that go browns, baby.
00:35:13
You know what, man? I am going to Bye.
00:35:19
I'm gonna be contrarian.
00:35:20
I'm gonna buy Jonathan Taylor.
00:35:22
I know the RB seven price tag is steep.
00:35:24
Pro football focus gives him the best run block advantage s I'm gonna go against our strength of schedule metric, a total foresight or a fantasy foresight dot com.
00:35:35
And I'm gonna go against total foresight in their ranking in their cell.
00:35:39
And I hope that I'm wrong because, you know, I I just this game I could see being a tougher physical game.
00:35:46
Uh, you know, I would really For the Browns.
00:35:49
I hope the Colts pass all over the field because that's gonna lead to turnovers.
00:35:53
But if they're smart, they're gonna lean on their run game.
00:35:56
Both teams should lean on that on their run games, and this could be a run heavy game.
00:36:01
So for that reason, I'm gonna say I'm gonna buy Jonathan Taylor, maybe both running back for both teams.
00:36:06
Really kind of go off this game and get in the end zone a couple of times, so I'm gonna buy it.
00:36:11
And if I'm wrong, I'm totally fine with that.
00:36:14
And it's gonna make me very happy.
00:36:17
Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and sell our B seven.
00:36:19
I do think I do think he'll flirt with you know he'll be in that RB one range.
00:36:25
I think you know, I think some of the reason we haven't seen Taylor get, you know, is many touches the last couple of weeks is when you just kind of look at the matchups and it hasn't been necessary to get him that involved.
00:36:36
They've been games that, you know, Indianapolis gets up ahead and they've just been able to kind of, you know, I guess saved their guy so to speak.
00:36:44
And I think this is one of those games where you know he'll probably get utilized a lot more than we've seen in the past couple of weeks.
00:36:51
They'll try, but when they're down and they got to pass the ball, I'm just getting, but that's what I mean.
00:36:57
I don't see him.
00:36:58
I don't think this is all at all.
00:37:00
And it hasn't been for opposing running backs.
00:37:02
This isn't a smash spot by any means for Jonathan Taylor.
00:37:05
Do I think he could get into the end zone? Sure, and do I think that he could get 60 70 yards on 18 to 20 carries.
00:37:12
Sure, and that's not gonna be a very good or efficient day.
00:37:15
And that will probably get him right around that RB one range.
00:37:18
But you know, when you're talking RB seven, uh, you've got to do a lot more than that in my mind.
00:37:23
So I'll go ahead and sell.
00:37:25
And you know, is you guys know I have him in our league of record.
00:37:28
Happy to be wrong.
00:37:30
But actually, forget that.
00:37:32
Not at the expense of my Cleveland Browns.
00:37:34
I want Jonathan Taylor to get smoked today.
00:37:36
I don't want him getting not a single yard.
00:37:40
I love it.
00:37:42
Oh, man, This is gonna be one of those days, Stevo, where we're either coming back on Tuesday.
00:37:47
Just Brown.
00:37:48
We're gonna win the Super Bowl or it's hello, darkness, my old friend.
00:37:50
And nothing in between.
00:37:52
Eso we've got two remaining cells left this week on this podcast before we get into my favorite segment of the week, which is Steve speculative Stashes and his stash and dash strategy.
00:38:02
But we've got a couple more guys that we want you to shy away from this week.
00:38:06
If you're even considering Cincinnati Bengals wide Receiver A. J.
00:38:10
Green. Please stop.
00:38:11
Hey! Is currently somehow the aggregate projection wide receiver 15 This week, 15 for a J.
00:38:19
Green total foresight is selling him and has him much more reasonably ranked as wide receiver 31 this week.
00:38:26
The Cincinnati The Cincinnati Bengals are on the road at Baltimore today at one PM Baltimore is a 12 point favorite over Under in.
00:38:35
This game is 50.
00:38:36
5 now, I will say, somehow I I am was surprised to see this.
00:38:41
Uh, we haven't a total foresight with the eighth best wide receiver strength of schedule this week, but I'll say that doesn't even matter to me.
00:38:49
That's good for the likes of Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.
00:38:51
The wide receivers actually produce in this offense, not guys that don't do anything like a J.
00:38:56
Green on a pro football focus.
00:38:58
You can see that the Bangles have the ninth worst past block advantage, and as Faras A J Green's individual wide receiver verse defensive back matchup that comes in with a ranking of 53rd not good.
00:39:11
Truthfully, A J.
00:39:13
Green shouldn't even be on this list.
00:39:15
His best finish this season has been wide receiver 43.
00:39:19
His best finish has been wide receiver 43 yet he's being projected as wide receiver 15 this week versus the Ravens.
00:39:28
That just feels negligent and irresponsible to me.
00:39:32
I'd be happy if a J Green just catches like five balls for 50 yards this week.
00:39:37
That be a mass improvement over his recent performances.
00:39:40
But wide receiver 15 Just stop. Obvious.
00:39:43
So, um yeah, I'm with you.
00:39:45
Hey, is a sell this week.
00:39:47
I can explain the foresight strength of schedule metric a little bit.
00:39:50
You know, you saw Dwayne Haskins throw for 300 yards against this Ravens defense last week, and now you get Joe Burrow a much more accurate in a much better passer at this point in both of their careers.
00:40:01
And you would expect that the Bangles, they're gonna be playing from behind like, usual against a very good Ravens team.
00:40:07
So it would make sense that they're gonna have to sling the rock and that the volume should be there, and they're gonna have to try to do something to try to keep up with Baltimore and undoubtedly get the win.
00:40:17
But they're gonna have to throw the ball.
00:40:19
But you're right, Ben.
00:40:20
That's just a plus for Boyd and Tee Higgins, the really the fantasy wide receiver.
00:40:26
One and two on this offense. A. J.
00:40:28
Green has just fallen down.
00:40:30
I wish I could give him credit, but I can't remember who said it this week on local radio when they had a national personality on.
00:40:36
But he said, at this point, A J.
00:40:37
Green is just another guy.
00:40:40
He's not the guy he used to be.
00:40:42
Um, you know, Sure, there's talent there.
00:40:45
Just not the same player at this stage of his career coming off yet another injury.
00:40:49
So, yeah, I've got to sell.
00:40:51
Why'd receiver 15? Steve, I gotta sell that hard once again.
00:40:56
Yeah.
00:40:57
I mean, good Lord, wide receiver 15.
00:41:00
Crazy.
00:41:01
Um, so obviously, I'm gonna sell.
00:41:05
I mean, I probably still sell them at wide receiver 31 to be honest, um, you know him Just finishing in that one time this whole year has never been wide receiver 31 this whole year.
00:41:16
And that's the thing, too, when you consider Okay.
00:41:19
Well, you know Cincinnati, I think that they kind of figured out we should run our offense through.
00:41:24
Joe Mixon worked out pretty well for us last week.
00:41:27
I'll be it.
00:41:28
Baltimore Very different opponent than the Jacksonville Jaguars.
00:41:32
But still, they need to have Joe mixing involved.
00:41:34
They need to keep it on the ground.
00:41:36
You know, you see here in the forecast 100% chance of heavy rain that doesn't scream.
00:41:41
Let's air it out all over the place this week, either.
00:41:43
So you know everything.
00:41:46
I mean, you could see the entire passing offense of the Cincinnati Bengals struggling in this one.
00:41:53
So a.
00:41:54
J. Green.
00:41:55
I'm just saying, like, Don't you know if you're if you're playing any cash games today, don't keep them out of your lineups, period.
00:42:01
Even if you think like I don't care if he's the cheapest player available for you to add to your roster, you're wasting a roster spot.
00:42:09
Take a shot with some upside somewhere else.
00:42:11
Don't play a J Green Best case scenario.
00:42:14
The Ravens were smart enough to say, Hey, you know, let's try to take Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd away.
00:42:21
Okay, Well, A J.
00:42:22
Green, even in a plus matchup against their secondary.
00:42:25
Like Ben said.
00:42:26
Five balls for 48 yards would be markedly your best game of the season.
00:42:32
So hey, yeah, Anyways, that's just my really low anyway.
00:42:37
Other player, anybody else, anybody.
00:42:41
The most expensive decoy in the NFL and nobody's even getting tricked anymore.
00:42:47
It's both my like, not not rostered pretty much at all Stashes.
00:42:53
I'd rather play both the guys I'm gonna talk about here shortly over a J. Green.
00:42:57
I mean, I benched him for guys like O. J.
00:43:00
You know, alluded to my terrible luck in our league of record this year.
00:43:04
So I'm bench and A J.
00:43:05
Green this week for guys like Greg Ward for had been guys like Tim Patrick.
00:43:09
Now it's Zakia ola media uh, you know, So it's just on and on it goes, man.
00:43:16
Just anybody but a J.
00:43:17
Green, which probably means he is going to be the wide receiver one in somebody's millionaire maker contest and draftkings this week makes perfect sense with 2020 eso.
00:43:26
Congratulations, whoever The contrarian homer for A J.
00:43:29
Green is out there.
00:43:30
A J Green stat line from week 52 catches, two touchdowns for two yards.
00:43:35
Yeah, no kidding.
00:43:36
And he ends up being wide receiver 14 barely making us wrong.
00:43:40
That would be so.
00:43:42
2020 Fantasy football.
00:43:44
All right, last one before we get out of here and move on to Steve.
00:43:48
Speculative Stashes.
00:43:49
We've got Miami Dolphins.
00:43:51
Tight end.
00:43:52
Might gets sick.
00:43:53
E uh, he he is currently projected as tight end five.
00:43:56
This week.
00:43:57
Total foresight is selling that we have him listed as tight end 13.
00:44:00
A respectable back end streamer type of tight end. For sure.
00:44:04
The Dolphins are at San Francisco today at 405 p.
00:44:08
M.
00:44:09
The Niners Aaron eight point favorite in this game as an over under a 51 points at total Foresight.
00:44:14
We list my kasicky with the second worst strength of schedule this week.
00:44:18
Pro football Focus agrees with us from the standpoint that they have the 12 worst past block advantage.
00:44:24
So there's not gonna be a ton of time for Fitz Magic to get the ball out.
00:44:27
But I will say pro football focus does give Kosecki the eighth best tight end match up this week.
00:44:33
And Steve, thank you for bringing up whether I do look at our Weather channel app in preparation for this podcast.
00:44:39
Weather has not been a factor in any of the games except the one that Steve just talked about with a J.
00:44:43
Green last week with, you know, high 70 with 100% chance of heavy rain.
00:44:48
Uh, no Other weather has is looking to factor into the rest of these games.
00:44:53
And that goes to my Kosecki and the Dolphins over there in San Fran as well.
00:44:57
Um, gas, Icky.
00:44:58
Has Onley finished as a top 20 top 20 tight end once this season, and it took him 11 targets in a week to shoot out with the Bills.
00:45:08
To accomplish that, I mean, he's only seen five total targets over the last two weeks.
00:45:13
I just don't see any indication that leads us to an aggregate projection of tight end five this week.
00:45:19
Me and total foresight are together all the way.
00:45:22
Didn't agree with disagree with total foresight.
00:45:24
One time in this episode, Hopefully it bodes well for us both.
00:45:28
I'm selling.
00:45:29
Let's go.
00:45:30
You know what? I am also going to sell.
00:45:32
I'm with you, man.
00:45:33
Just it's a tough matchup, man.
00:45:36
Tightened five.
00:45:37
Just a hard price tag to bet on.
00:45:40
So, you know, he's probably gonna finish.
00:45:42
It has tightened for now.
00:45:44
But what the heck? Uh, yeah, I'm gonna sell, and I'm there with both you guys.
00:45:50
I just think it's It's the logical thing to Dio.
00:45:56
What about this season has been logical? Steve, I know what you know. The chance.
00:46:02
The tight end landscape being what it is, I I understand that you can catch six balls for 68 yards and a touchdown and be right in that tight end five range.
00:46:12
I understand that I get that, but it's just all about the probability and odds off Kosecki doing that this particular week with this particular matchup.
00:46:22
And I just I can't get behind betting on that.
00:46:25
So I want and I'll sell.
00:46:27
Can you finish is tightened 10 14.
00:46:31
You know, in that range? Yeah, Absolutely.
00:46:33
I think that's a lot more likely.
00:46:34
Um, but tight end five.
00:46:36
I just can't Can't do it Won't do it never will do it.
00:46:40
So that's where I am that one.
00:46:43
No, no, no.
00:46:45
All right, all right.
00:46:46
That does it for our buys and sells this week.
00:46:48
Like I said, we had.
00:46:49
We had Tim.
00:46:50
Patrick has a buy.
00:46:51
We had Jerry Judy as a cell, but that game is not happening.
00:46:54
So I did all that research for nothing.
00:46:56
So thank you, co vid, um, but are my favorite segment every single week is Steve speculative stash Siri's If you've got some middling wide receiver five at the end of your bench, maybe like an a J.
00:47:08
Green, consider dropping them for you know, any handcuff like cheer fire backup, workhorse running back type of role or some guy that just has the ability where, if depending on the landscape this week could end up being one of the top waiver wire targets of Week six? So you know, just the stashing dash is just a fun little extra penny stock way to enjoy fantasy football every Sunday.
00:47:32
Just keep an eye on kickoff times.
00:47:34
Whoever just have that one spot at the end of your bench that you just like to rotate guys out and try and go for that Max upside.
00:47:41
So Steve taken away with your week five speculative Stashes as in tow, piggyback off of some of what you just said.
00:47:48
Benny is, um, yeah, more valuable, probably than any other kind of stash you can make is, you know, ensure you're running backs.
00:47:59
Ensure your opponents running backs.
00:48:02
And, you know, Ben mentioned Stash and Dash.
00:48:04
You know, it's just like a kind of a little slang saying we like toe have for hey, Thursday Night Football is going to kick off there.
00:48:13
Any guys available from that game, you could throw out the end of your bench that should the running back go down in front of them? Would that give them some instant? You know, at least flexibility in your league.
00:48:22
Would that put them in that running back? Three Running back to radar? You wanna have those guys on the end of your bench and come the end of the Thursday night game? Nobody was injured.
00:48:33
Okay, Dropping.
00:48:34
You have the 1 p.m.
00:48:35
Sunday slate coming up.
00:48:36
There's probably guys sitting around out there in your league throws.
00:48:39
Throw one of those guys that looks decent.
00:48:41
Should they become the starter at the end of the bench, see what happens.
00:48:45
4.
00:48:46
25 PM Slate comes up.
00:48:48
Drop the guy from 1 p.m.
00:48:50
If he isn't, you know, deem if you don't deem him worthy of holding him, drop him.
00:48:55
You got Sunday Night Football.
00:48:56
Same thing.
00:48:57
Monday Night Football this week, we got Tuesday night football and just keep it rolling.
00:49:01
S so long as you have that that burn in turn bench spot.
00:49:04
And I know I like to have that available.
00:49:06
There's many leagues is possible just for that reason.
00:49:09
Um, because, you know, I understand these air like lottery scratch off tickets pretty much you're probably not gonna hit on many, if any of them throughout a season.
00:49:18
But if you do this and you do it long enough often enough, you're bound to get something at some point in time.
00:49:25
So and it makes the games a little more fun and interesting, because you're just kind of like, Hey, this guy worth keeping Okay, cool.
00:49:32
No, I'll just go get somebody else.
00:49:34
So stash and dash do that as often as possible and especially with the running backs guys, especially the running backs.
00:49:42
Um, So what? That kind of little up P s a out of the way we will get into the actual players I have specifically that I think our stash worthy this week and I do have to admit is the season is the season rolls along, and I find this every year.
00:49:57
It does get harder and harder to try to find guys, especially this year, where you have co vid postponing games, canceling games, the rash of injuries because people are digging really deep just to find players to put in their rosters.
00:50:09
So I do like to try to focus on upcoming by weeks.
00:50:13
Aziz.
00:50:14
Well, because I think especially this season, you don't wanna wait until you're looking at replacing a guy the week of thereby because there's other opponents in your league.
00:50:24
They're looking to do the same thing.
00:50:25
So if you can stash a guy that you know you're not going to use this week, but with the thought, Hey, I can start this guy in place of my stuff that I'm losing for the week because guys, next week we have New Orleans, Las Vegas and Seattle all on by, and there's a lot of fancy relevant players.
00:50:43
We're talking Russell Wilson, D K.
00:50:44
Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Album camera, Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs.
00:50:52
That's a lot of players that people are gonna be going without next week's, say, Derek Carr.
00:50:57
I'm confused.
00:50:59
Well, he's the one guy we don't have.
00:51:02
Thio, obviously.
00:51:04
But you know, So what does jump right into it? You're gonna I don't think people should be starting Drew Brees, but some people still are, but everybody is starting Russell Wilson if they have them, but they're not gonna have them next week.
00:51:18
So look in advance at your quarterback landscape, and I really like adding Justin Herbert, quarterback of the Los Angeles Chargers.
00:51:28
He's only rostered, and 17% of leagues and guys he he's put up some nice fantasy numbers against defense is that are not fantasy friendly defense's um, And then next week, he's got the New York Jets, and we talked about earlier.
00:51:43
Jets aren't necessarily a team that you attack on the ground, which, by the way, Austin secular done for the foreseeable future.
00:51:49
So that's even more of a reason that we probably see, um, the Chargers air it out a little bit next week.
00:51:55
But, you know, you have the Jets traveling from New York all the way out to L. A.
00:52:00
Um, and that team might have already given up on the season.
00:52:03
Should have given up given up on the season by the time they make that trip.
00:52:06
I just think that that's kind of a smash spot for Herbert next week and certainly worth stashing to play for your Russell Wilson lost, you know, next week and that affect Kirk Cousins.
00:52:19
I throw in the same boat.
00:52:21
He I mean, he's a guy you could use.
00:52:23
This week is a streamer, but he's got Atlanta coming to town next week and the Vikings defense.
00:52:30
It's been terrible this season.
00:52:32
Atlanta can score points.
00:52:34
This I'm sure.
00:52:36
When the Vegas line comes out, we'll probably have, Ah, relatively high over under.
00:52:40
And if there's gonna be, ah, spot where Kirk Cousins can smash this 2020 season, it's going to be next week when they play the Atlanta Falcons.
00:52:49
So he's available in 71% of leagues right now because he's only rostered in 29 of them.
00:52:54
Yeah, there's some quick math right off the top of my head right there.
00:52:57
But e o.
00:53:01
I am an accountant after all, But so, yeah, I like both of those quarterbacks.
00:53:07
So if if you're if you've been rolling with Drew Brees for whatever reason and certainly for those who have Russell Wilson keep those two guys in mind and depending on you guys out there listening, you know your leagues.
00:53:17
You know how you know if you have to grab quarterbacks early, and if you do, definitely those are the guys to do it with.
00:53:23
So, um, I do have a couple of wide receivers that I consider pretty deep Stashes because one guy is roster, 2% of leagues and one guy's rostered and 0% of leagues.
00:53:34
But we'll start off with, uh, the mere bird wide receiver of the New England Patriots currently available in 98% of your leagues out there.
00:53:44
Um, you know this the guy that should get your attention a little bit simply for the fact that he's gotten 22 targets over the past three weeks uh, reeled in 14 of those for a buck 79.
00:53:55
And, you know, two of the three games that I'm speaking of, he scored 13 or more PPR points.
00:54:01
You know, we are talking about, you know, PPR formats here and given I listed off a lot of wide receivers that people are going to be out next week.
00:54:11
Um given that he's been seeing the targets, he's somebody that you could go and grab.
00:54:17
Stash, see, you know, just kind of see, um, What what his target share looks like this week? Well, actually, I'm sorry they're not even playing.
00:54:27
I take that back, but still somebody who's probably worth stashing just to see what his how he develops, moving forward if he continues to see the target share that he's been getting and a guy that I'm a little more excited about, probably just because he's 0% rostered.
00:54:42
So that just makes him even more intriguing to me.
00:54:45
But Jeff Smith, wide receiver of the New York Jets, another undrafted free agent.
00:54:53
Uh, this guy made his 2020 debut last week, and what got my attention is it's nine targets caught seven of them for 81 yards was over 15 PPR points.
00:55:04
Now this is just one game, very small sample size.
00:55:08
But when you was also with Flacco, another a piece of continuity from one week to this week, and that's a good point.
00:55:17
And so when you look at the New York Jets at the end of the day, this is a team that's gonna be behind in games will for the foreseeable future.
00:55:26
They'll be throwing the ball.
00:55:27
I mean, I know Adam gazes.
00:55:29
I mean, sorry. The guy's a moron.
00:55:31
He will try to find a way toe to run the ball, even when they're down 21 points.
00:55:36
But I digress.
00:55:37
But the point being there's gonna be targets to go around.
00:55:40
And there are targets to go around in New York because they don't have pass catchers.
00:55:45
Like I understand there's Jamison Crowder, but he this a guy that struggles to be healthy and on the field has his whole entire career.
00:55:52
And just because he's on the field doesn't mean that there's nowhere else the Balkan go to.
00:55:57
So the fact that Jeff Smith came in and had a really nice performance out of nowhere, it just, you know, got my attention.
00:56:06
He's somebody that you certainly aren't gonna throw out there and play him this week.
00:56:10
But stash him and just kind of see how he looks again.
00:56:13
It's one of those things where if he get 789 targets again this week, that's worth Rasta Ring and fantasy football, especially when you have all these guys that are gonna be on by next week, because, I mean, you're gonna have to put someone out there.
00:56:28
I'd rather put a guy out there that I think is gonna get 78 or nine targets with the potential to catch 567 balls and give me double digit PPR points like I like having a guy like that at the end of my bench that I could use Overall, you know, there's so many wide receivers out there like, Gosh, Randall Cobb that, you know, what's the up? What's the upside? He might get you a dozen points, but he also could give you four like he's done several times.
00:56:57
So yeah, And for all we know, by the end of 2020 just Smith might be the wide receiver one for the New York Jets.
00:57:04
You never know.
00:57:05
So and that's why it's a stash.
00:57:06
And, you know, I just That's a guy that was probably the most intriguing one I have for the week.
00:57:11
So we talked about stashing and dashing guys and, you know, we talked about ensuring running back, So that's really all I got for this week.
00:57:19
Well, Steve Oh, it's Ah, you know, it's a great philosophical and strategic pivot out of you to understand that, you know, the deeper in this season we go, the fewer speculative Stashes they're going to be.
00:57:30
But one thing every team does have to worry about eyes buys.
00:57:34
And so, like you said, you don't wanna be thinking about next week when everybody else is thinking about next week.
00:57:40
You wanna be thinking about next week now.
00:57:42
And if you have any burnable roster spots, start bolstering your roster for next week instead of just having a guy wasting space at the end of your bench.
00:57:49
So, Steve, I love that segment every single week.
00:57:52
And you know, you can also go check out Steve's great work at the, uh, foresight encyclopedia tab at fantasy foresight dot com to read all of the extensive notes that he gives about these speculative Stashes every week.
00:58:05
It's a great piece to read for sure.
00:58:07
So, uh, sorry to interrupt.
00:58:09
Really Quick goes right along with the whole, you know, stash thing and bye Weeks is I think, what we have to focus on even more when it comes to preparing for bye Weeks is in the past, you could look around your league, right? And you could say, Well, hey, you know, there's only this team and this team that are gonna be affected by the bye week.
00:58:28
They don't have positions I have.
00:58:30
Okay, I can wait till next week, but we have to start considering we don't know what teams are going to be playing every week, what games are gonna be postponed or canceled? And that's just besides the higher rate of injury that we're seeing.
00:58:42
So you know, it's like more than ever know when you have your key players on bye weeks and prepare for it.
00:58:49
Stash guys, For that reason, So sorry, but I'll let you get back Thio.
00:58:53
Oh, no worries that that was pretty much it, man.
00:58:55
And, uh, it did just come out, at least from I just got a Yahoo notification that Yahoo is going to be treating the Broncos and Patriots as if Week five is there by eso to that point, Steve, you don't know going into every week who's gonna be on a bike who's not what What's concerning, though, guys is this whole flip flop shift and buys works right now.
00:59:17
what's gonna happen in Week 10 when you can't teams already out of by, you're gonna give him two bis.
00:59:23
I mean, they could could get ugly, for sure, but you gotta plan ahead.
00:59:28
Football way, dio.
00:59:31
Just everybody just take a pause.
00:59:33
We'll just pause the season, and we will resume in a week or two.
00:59:36
That's a great idea, Steve.
00:59:38
I love that it could go a long as it needs to go.
00:59:40
Just give us our full slate of games, baby.
00:59:43
It'll be.
00:59:44
Perhaps there it is. J. C.
00:59:46
Between that and NFL Island Hawaii fantasy Foresight.
00:59:50
The podcast has all the solutions that these millionaires and billionaires can't come up with in the NFL.
00:59:55
Guys, come on now.
00:59:56
It's not that hard.
00:59:58
All right, So you guys got anything else before we get out of here and enjoy these games today? Let's go, man.
01:00:03
I am so sorry for today's slate.
01:00:05
Yes.
01:00:06
Go browns.
01:00:07
Indeed.
01:00:08
Everybody out there keep your eyes peeled to the news.
01:00:10
Keep your stash dash antennas up and, uh, you know, enjoy this slate of football while we've got it because we don't know if we're gonna have it for 16 weeks.
01:00:19
so enjoy it today on we will be back with you at eight.
01:00:23
Pm on Tuesday night to review this undoubtedly wild and crazy Week five And to give you all of your waiver wire targets And in two weeks, six can't wait.
01:00:34
And that wraps up this episode of fantasy foresight the podcast way.
01:00:39
Thank you for joining us.
01:00:40
Be sure to visit us as always at fantasy foresight dot com Use the links at the bottom of the page to find us across social media, including Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and wherever you pod.
01:00:54
We hope you enjoy the episode and we'll see you next.
01:00:56
Maybe you're right, But can you imagine how uncomfortable it must be to like one on one? Sit across the table from Adam? Gays? People probably just get a job to get him out of their office.
01:01:05
Bro. Get out of my office.
01:01:07
Yeah, okay.
01:01:08
You got a job? Leave me alone.
01:01:09
Stop looking at me.
01:01:11
Just dio be very busy.
01:01:12
E o oh, he'd be like, Have you seen that taco video? I was gonna say I'm sure they had, like, a good working relationship, But we all but But that's it.
01:01:41
Like I'm sure Adam Gates was pretty much like a yes man.
01:01:47
Yeah, precisely.
01:01:49
Then how much credit should a pilot get for flying a plane on autopilot? I mean, come on. Now.
01:01:56
You know, like you said, Jay, maybe he's, you know, this the smartest guy in the room, actually, in the way that he's like, Hey, I know, I know.
01:02:07
I don't know Jack about anything, but let me go parlay this into some head coaching jobs because people are dumb enough to give it to me and yeah, yeah, I don't know.
01:02:23
You'll never hear from me again. I promise.
01:02:25
Yeah.
01:02:26
Okay.
01:02:27
Someone want to send me, like, $3000? Yeah.
01:02:35
I was gonna say I gotta keep my expectations realistic down here, Uh
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FantasyForesight is broadcasting live!

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Fantasy Foresight @FantasyForesight

Transcript hideup

00:00:15
Yeah.
00:00:22
Welcome, everyone to fantasy Foresight, the podcast where your host and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com coming to you from the Rambo Fix your company studios.
00:00:32
I'm Ben, and I'm Jay.
00:00:34
You ready to get rolling, J? You know it.
00:00:36
Let's do this.
00:00:37
All right, let's go.
00:00:41
Welcome in everyone.
00:00:42
It is Sunday, October 11th.
00:00:44
We've got our guy Steve at f f Underscore Encyclopedia with us.
00:00:48
We've got a whole new list of buys and sells verse, their aggregate projections heading into week five.
00:00:53
And once again, fantasy Foresight, the podcast is live.
00:00:56
How you doing today, J? Then you know, we thought Week five was gonna be, you know, redemption week for this podcast.
00:01:05
And we thought maybe things might settle down and get back to normal, but already news this morning.
00:01:10
Ah, game postponed.
00:01:12
Maybe another one on the way.
00:01:14
It's just not going to be Ah, calm season in the NFL.
00:01:18
You know what the drama I love It gives us something to talk about.
00:01:22
Keeps everything interesting.
00:01:23
So I'm ready to go, man.
00:01:25
Steve, how are you doing this morning? I'm doing pretty well.
00:01:29
I actually woke up this morning.
00:01:30
Had a little bit of like the playoff PBJ is in my stomach, probably because you know it was a Browns fan.
00:01:39
This is playoff type atmosphere when you're three and one playing another three teams.
00:01:43
Eso a little nervous but really excited.
00:01:46
Just watch football on.
00:01:47
Thanks for having me on guys.
00:01:48
Always a good time and looking forward to the episode.
00:01:51
Glad to have you back absolutely on just a quick disclaimer.
00:01:55
If this is your first time listening, just know that we're speaking in terms of single Q b full PPR redraft by default and all of our fantasy finishes as well as fantasy points per game.
00:02:05
Calculations are based on full PPR Limited two weeks one through 16 according to fantasy pros dot com.
00:02:11
Alright, you know, we came into this by cells episode with two more players to give you wanna buy and want to sell? Uh, then we're actually going to deliver.
00:02:22
Why? Because we just got the news that Stupid cove it has now canceled or postponed a game for us that was already moved back to 5 p.m.
00:02:32
Eastern time tomorrow.
00:02:33
On Monday, I was looking forward to yet another doubleheader on Monday night football.
00:02:37
That's the one of the little perks of this whole situation.
00:02:40
But now more positive test people not doing what they should be doing.
00:02:44
You guys a millionaire professionals lock it up so we can get our football.
00:02:48
Thank you very much.
00:02:49
So we have now.
00:02:50
Quick, you know, we need to give you a little bit of an alert to that.
00:02:54
Tuesday game is also in jeopardy.
00:02:57
So just, you know, set your lineups today with the expectation of those guys.
00:03:01
May not be going because right now the Tennessee Titans had another positive tests in their front office or coaching staff hasn't been together for 12 consecutive days.
00:03:10
It I just don't see a path to where that game is going to be played between Buffalo and Tennessee on Tuesday.
00:03:16
So with that in mind, adjust your lineups accordingly.
00:03:20
You know there's other countries in the world that got this whole virus licked already.
00:03:25
Like it's it's over.
00:03:26
Just saying, Do what you gotta dio we need our football e o.
00:03:32
Yeah, we're not gonna go into all the names that we could have been doing way better with all this, and now it's costing us um, NFL games, and I'm sick of it.
00:03:39
So we have got a list of 13 total buys and sells for you.
00:03:43
I'm sorry.
00:03:44
11 Total buys and sells for you this week.
00:03:46
Six BIS five cells and first stop.
00:03:50
We're starting off with Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew.
00:03:54
His current aggregate projection is quarterback 24.
00:03:57
Total foresight is buying that, giving him a rank of Q B 11 heading into Week five.
00:04:02
The Jags air on the road at Houston today at one PM Houston somehow is a 5.
00:04:07
5 point favorite.
00:04:08
Uh, the over under is 54 a half, so they are expecting points to be scored over there in Vegas and a total foresight.
00:04:15
Gardner Minshew has the fourth best quarterback strength of schedule this week.
00:04:20
Now moving over to pro football focus.
00:04:21
He does have the 11th worst pass block advantage when you look at his offensive line vs the opposing defensive line, and when you look at his individual wide receiver verse defensive back matchups, his wide receivers have the 18th, 26 41st overall ranked individual wide receiver Devi matchups, respectively, on then also a pro football focus.
00:04:41
They give him the second best quarterback matchup this week, so it looks like it's all online form this this week.
00:04:47
Gardner has been a top 15 quarterback in three or four weeks this season, and all he has to do this week is beat quarterback 24.
00:04:55
Plus, he's averaged more than 320 past yards over the past three weeks, and the Titans have allowed seven past touchdowns.
00:05:03
I'm sorry the Texans not to tighten The Texans have allowed seven pass touchdowns with no interceptions, two opposing quarterbacks over the first four weeks this season, not Onley in my buying Gardner verse, that aggregate projection of quarterback 24.
00:05:17
But I also think he's streamer worthy this week.
00:05:20
You know, I got to say, Look, we're fantasy foresight.
00:05:23
We're growing our brand.
00:05:24
We're a small company, you know, working our way up in this world and in this industry.
00:05:29
And it's just interesting to see when that when a place like pro football focus has all their metrics and their metrics line up with our metrics.
00:05:37
It's it's kind of nice to see it all come together like that.
00:05:41
We have the fourth best quarterback strength of schedule for Gardner Minshew this week.
00:05:45
Pro football focus.
00:05:46
That gives him the second best.
00:05:47
Um, but you know, with the with the other wrecks that you mentioned then the 11th worst past block advantage and then what his wide receivers were facing.
00:05:55
I kind of like our our metric a little bit better to be honest with you, but still, that's a far cry from Q B 24.
00:06:01
I expect him to easily beat that.
00:06:03
However, last week I thought everything made sense in this world and very, very little of it came true.
00:06:09
But you know, the tiebreaker this week for me is I'm trading in the RV and I'm upgrading.
00:06:15
That's gotta be a good sign.
00:06:17
I'm buying Gardner Minshew its RV week.
00:06:20
Let's go, buddy O.
00:06:23
J.
00:06:25
Um, I will also by Gardner Minshew this week.
00:06:28
Uh, it just makes too much sense to do anything otherwise, you know, given everything that you know, Benny laid out before us.
00:06:35
And at the end of the day, quarterback 24.
00:06:39
We saw it last week, even even in a game where men she comes out, you know, struggles early on, struggles to get anything going they fall behind.
00:06:46
Well, he's still gonna garbage time his way to putting up a decent stat line and being fantasy relevant for the week.
00:06:53
So, you know, like you said, man, he's definitely on the streaming radar this week.
00:06:58
He has to be and, you know, quarterback 24.
00:07:01
I I just kind of find that laughable that that's his aggregate production on the week.
00:07:05
Yeah, between buys and co vid, you're already down four quarterbacks, and if we lose tomb or you're down tomb or so you think he's gonna be one of the worst quarterbacks and fantasy this week, we disagree.
00:07:16
Uh, it makes total sense that we would be right.
00:07:18
So, of course, we'll probably get this one wrong.
00:07:19
We're gonna move on to somebody else.
00:07:22
We've got Carolina Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
00:07:25
He's currently aggregate projected Q B 19 total foresight is buying that as well.
00:07:30
Enlist him his Q B 13 this week.
00:07:32
The Panthers are on the road at Atlanta today at 1 p.m.
00:07:36
Atlanta is a two point favorite with a nice over under a 53.
00:07:38
5 At total foresight.
00:07:41
You can see that Teddy B has the second best quarterback strength of schedule this week.
00:07:45
Now at pro football Focus, you can also see he does have the fifth worst pass block advantage this week.
00:07:51
But his top three wide receivers are all inside the top 45 individual wide receiver.
00:07:56
Db matchups on.
00:07:58
He also has given a pro football focus.
00:08:00
The 17th ranked quarterback match up this week.
00:08:03
This season.
00:08:04
For me, it comes down to this.
00:08:05
Facing the Falcons defense has equated to the Q B one overall in both Week one and Week two, and a Raj just finished is the Q B three overall just last week.
00:08:18
Plus, even the the hapless tandem of Nick Foles and mixed Robiskie combined for over 300 pass yards verse the Falcons in Week three.
00:08:28
So clearly everyone can pass against Atlanta just like Minshew.
00:08:33
Not Onley in my buying Teddy versus his aggregate projection of q B 19.
00:08:37
But I also think he is streamer worthy this week, all right, you know what? Because this makes so much sense and it's a plus match up and everything.
00:08:46
I'm going to sell Teddy Bridgewater.
00:08:48
Why? Because I have D J.
00:08:50
Moore on a lot of my teams and I really need him to finally step up and produce this season.
00:08:56
And it all makes sense for all the reasons you just stated.
00:08:59
So of course it won't happen.
00:09:01
And that's the Onley reason.
00:09:02
That is the Onley reason I am selling Teddy Bridgewater this week because it just makes too much sense.
00:09:10
I mean, I can't blame you for that logic.
00:09:13
However I do have to buy this one is.
00:09:16
Well, like you said Jay, it just makes too much sense.
00:09:20
Does e mean you look at the matchup? Uh, you know Atlanta.
00:09:25
You know whether Julio is completely healthy or not? You know, Calvin Ridley is off the injury report.
00:09:30
They have plenty of weapons there.
00:09:32
Carolina's defense isn't really, could it? Also, you just you have to imagine there's gonna be a fair amount of points that were put up in this one.
00:09:40
And you know, even if Mike Davis gets a couple of TDs on the ground, I have to think that Bridgewater will.
00:09:46
He'll find his way.
00:09:47
He'll climb up to around 300 yards and a score to, and that puts him easily right over quarterback, 19 on the week So I'm gonna go ahead and buy this one as well.
00:09:56
And I think that that's probably Bridgewater's floor.
00:09:59
There's obviously potential where he does finish inside the top 12 this week.
00:10:05
Yes, sir.
00:10:06
And J, you know, I hear you, man, but me and Steve, we gotta We gotta stay true and understand that, like all of our indicators, it'll mean something.
00:10:14
And, you know, but I can't.
00:10:16
Neither of us can fault you for going your way to my logic on the next one.
00:10:20
Oh, hey, The next one is one of the few bright spots of this fantasy season for me and my league of record.
00:10:26
And we're talking about Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson.
00:10:30
Hey is currently aggregate projected RB 18 in Week five.
00:10:34
Total foresight is buying that has him all the way up at RB six.
00:10:38
Uh, the Jags are on the road like we said with Menchu at Houston today at one, Houston is almost a six point favorite.
00:10:45
Don't know how.
00:10:46
45 40 54 a half over under For that game.
00:10:50
At total foresight, you can see that James Robinson has the second best running back strength of schedule this week.
00:10:56
He does have the ninth worst run block advantage, but I'll say this.
00:11:00
James Robinson is average more than 110 total yards per game so far this season, and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden just came out yesterday and said he wants to make sure J.
00:11:11
Rob gets more second half touches, which also alludes to more involvement in the passing game because they tend to be down so far this season in the second half.
00:11:20
And we saw this play out already last week as J.
00:11:23
Rob was the Onley Jags running back toe log, a single target in Week four.
00:11:28
He had four targets, and not even Chris Thompson had one.
00:11:32
It's only taken four weeks, but it sounds like they finally realized they have a bell cow stud in Jacksonville.
00:11:39
I'm all in on J.
00:11:40
Robert running back 18 this week.
00:11:43
It's a buy for me, and I've just got to say real quick.
00:11:46
I picked this guy up in Week one to be my Flex behind CMC and Mostert.
00:11:50
He was never intended to be the RB one on my roster and the man has still served very well in that position.
00:11:58
Like, if there are people in your league still not believing in J Rob, go get him.
00:12:03
All right, I'm gonna sell J Rob.
00:12:05
And here's my reasoning.
00:12:06
Why? Uh, like you said, Jay Gruden said he needs to be more involved in the second half, and that would all lead.
00:12:12
Well, you'd think home run, he's gonna be an r b one, so of course it's not gonna happen.
00:12:17
What have we done? So, yes, we have heard coaches come out and say, you know, whatever they're going to say, and then you get to game time in the exact opposite eso all lies like you said, Ben.
00:12:29
So I'm gonna say no, that's not gonna happen.
00:12:31
And even, maybe more so than that, nobody has had worse luck so far this fantasy season than foresight.
00:12:38
Ben over there in the fact that he's riding him in a do or die week in his league of record.
00:12:43
I got to say, I gotta go with what's happened so far this season.
00:12:47
He's gonna be on the short end, so I'm gonna sell James Robinson.
00:12:53
Man, I have toe be honest with you guys.
00:12:55
I'm really tourney on this one.
00:12:58
You know, I've been just spinning my wheels the whole time.
00:13:00
Both of you guys have been giving her reasoning for buying or selling James Robinson this week.
00:13:05
Uh, you know, actual mind, Um, or just you know what? Well, some of why I'm tourney is, you know, I am going to buy into Menchu having a decent week, and you know that I also wanna buy into James Robinson.
00:13:19
But then also, you know, we finally the Houston Texans finally rid themselves of Bill O Brien e.
00:13:24
I think that that team is probably going to come out and play like it's the Super Bowl, you know, in rally around Romeo Coronel eso.
00:13:33
You know, I could see it being a tougher sledding type of day.
00:13:36
However, James Robinson, you know, running back 18 on the week.
00:13:42
That's such a oh, I'm gonna tell you, man, you know what Here and you say that gets me thinking Maybe this will be a run heavy game, and I am all for that.
00:13:52
Let's get some David Johnson and some James Robinson heavy Carey's well in like like many alluded to I I do think that, you know, even even when If they find themselves in a situation where the game script is going away from running the football, they still need to find ways to get him the ball through the Oeiras.
00:14:11
Well, he's shown that he is more than capable off catching the ball, the backfield, making big plays and so much more so than Chris Thompson.
00:14:20
So, um, I'm gonna go ahead and buy.
00:14:24
I'm gonna buy.
00:14:25
I think he just I think he just squeaks in there like he'll he'll finish above running back 18 on the week.
00:14:30
But it's gonna be pretty close, but I'm gonna buy the one week that they actually heavily involved him in the passing game was Week three.
00:14:38
He had six catches on six targets for 83 yards.
00:14:41
Um, you know, I mean, this guy should be game script proof if you watch him the number one correlative stat in fantasy football when it comes to these wide receivers running backs, tight ends is yards per game.
00:14:55
And when the man's averaging over 100 total yards per game this season and they they've still been taking him off the field for old man Chris Thompson.
00:15:02
If that stops and they only take him off the field when he needs it.
00:15:05
Dude could be elite for the rest of the year if he could stay healthy if he's game script proof.
00:15:10
So I need you this week.
00:15:12
Jay. Rob. Come through for me, brother.
00:15:14
Uh, next up.
00:15:16
A guy that I am surprised in 2020 heading into Week five made our buy list on this podcast.
00:15:23
But this is really all This is where we're at with this cove in football season, and you may have to depend on a guy like New York Giants running back Devonta Freeman.
00:15:33
He's currently aggregate projected RB 38 total.
00:15:36
Foresight is buying that.
00:15:37
Enlist him is our B 27 heading into Week five.
00:15:40
The Giants are on the road at Dallas today at 4:25 p.m.
00:15:44
Dallas is a nice 8.
00:15:45
5 point favorite, and that game has an over under of 53.
00:15:50
A total foresight.
00:15:51
You can see that the Giants running backs have the eighth best running back strength of schedule this week.
00:15:56
They do have the six worth worst run block advantage, but I will say this.
00:16:01
Last week, Freeman lead the Giants backfield with 15 total touches versus Galman six, and Dion Lewis is three.
00:16:10
He converted those 15 looks into our B 24 overall.
00:16:14
He should get as much or more opportunity this week verse a much less daunting defense.
00:16:19
And this time all he has to do is outpaced running back 38 all by that and your ability to flex him this week if you need Thio.
00:16:28
Um, sorry, just addressing some commissioner issues in our league of record coming up this morning.
00:16:33
Oh, boys, for some charity requests.
00:16:36
No kidding.
00:16:37
Listen, man, we take pride in how difficult our league of record is.
00:16:41
We make it extremely difficult with short benches.
00:16:44
We adopted one Covic Onley relief spot heading into this season, knowing Cove it was going to wreak havoc online ups.
00:16:53
And now it's been brought forward that we should have replacements and things like that to allow for players.
00:16:59
And the answer is going to be a resounding no.
00:17:02
Our league is our league because of how difficult it is, but we'll put it up to a vote anyways and see what the membership has to say.
00:17:09
For Devonta Freeman.
00:17:12
I am going to sell.
00:17:14
Also this week.
00:17:16
I've seen his involvement.
00:17:18
I just you know, I just don't think he's going to be as involved in the passing game. Aziz.
00:17:25
He needs to be looked running back.
00:17:27
38 shouldn't be hard to eclipse.
00:17:29
I I understand that.
00:17:30
But for that reason, it just won't make sense that he can even beat RB 38.
00:17:34
So he's gonna finish in his RB 45 I'm gonna be correct and selling Devonta Freeman.
00:17:41
Yeah, I'm actually going to go ahead and sell.
00:17:43
Freeman is well this week and the primary reason being, I think that I just think that, you know, it's at Dallas.
00:17:50
Dallas is they're reeling right now.
00:17:53
They just got embarrassed last week, and, you know, I just think that they're going to come out and pretty much just bury the Giants in this one.
00:18:01
And you know, Freeman, I just don't think the opportunities will be there for him and what he does get.
00:18:06
I just don't think he'll produce to that level so that that's where I met with Devonta Freeman this week.
00:18:12
I'm gonna go ahead and sell, Yeah, sound logic, the the thing that I think saves him is he was.
00:18:17
He was very involved in the passing game.
00:18:19
So if this game script does get out of hand, uh, he could still have this fantasy days that way and my other.
00:18:26
The other reason that I like him this week is because I just think that Rams defense, which he actually put up our B 24 numbers verse last week, is just night and day.
00:18:34
Better than that Dallas defense.
00:18:35
So RB 38.
00:18:37
It's not that hard to come by.
00:18:38
I understand your guy's rationale, and it's, you know, it's a lot more fun when it's not just straight chalk and straight consensus on this podcast under here.
00:18:46
The varying ideas, uh, moving on to our next guy this week at the wide receiver position.
00:18:51
We've got Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
00:18:54
You might be asking yourself, though he's an obvious start.
00:18:56
Why is he on this list? Well, his aggregate projection seems really low to me at wide receiver. 17.
00:19:03
Uh, total foresight is buying that emphatically as we have enlisted his wide receiver three this week.
00:19:08
The Bills air at Tennessee hopefully on Tuesday, Tuesday at 7 p.
00:19:13
m.
00:19:14
on a total force that you can see that digs in the wide receivers for the Bills have the seventh best strength of schedule at the position this week.
00:19:20
The and pro football focus.
00:19:22
You can see they have the 13th ranked pass block advantage and for the individual wide receiver defensive back match up, it's a little lower, but it's Stefon Diggs.
00:19:31
He's an immense talent, but it does only come in at the 39th ranked individual match up this week.
00:19:37
But again, it's wide receiver 17 and we're talking about stuff on digs in that offense this season.
00:19:42
And Digs is wide Receiver six on the year in fantasy points per game and so far is the fifth most consistent wide receiver in football.
00:19:51
Thus far, he has met or exceeded his current aggregate projection of wide receiver 17 2 out of four times this season and verse that Titan secondary This week.
00:20:00
I'm buying his ability to meet or exceed wide receiver 17 for the third time in 2020.
00:20:05
Yeah, I don't think he's gonna maybe get to wide receiver three this week because Tennessee, you know their defense tends to play pretty darn tough and that that team in general tends to play teams Very tough.
00:20:17
I'm not sure this games even gonna happen anyway, so I'm not too concerned about it.
00:20:21
But the reason I'm going to buy digs is because I'm facing him in multiple leagues.
00:20:27
So I'm hoping the fact that I buy him means that he's gonna make me wrong and not live up to WR 17 which I could really use in those other leagues and pick up some wins this week.
00:20:37
So I'm gonna buy Stefon Diggs this week. Let's go, buddy.
00:20:41
Yeah, I'm right there with both you guys.
00:20:43
I think that I think he'll smash wide receiver 17 this week.
00:20:47
Actually, um, Tennessee, you know, traditionally, they are pretty tough defensively, and they fare a lot better, I think, against teams not definitely not through the air.
00:20:58
I think that, you know, they've been picked on quite a bit through the air this season.
00:21:02
So, you know, I just I think Stefon Diggs is going to smoke them.
00:21:06
So But, you know, we don't know if we'll even see that happened this week.
00:21:10
They might not even play.
00:21:12
Don't you love talking about games that might not even happen.
00:21:14
It's exactly I'm sitting here.
00:21:16
I'm like, Man, don't Don't Don't rack your mind too hard on this one ba*****t.
00:21:19
Steve, the next one.
00:21:20
Just ah, man, I could, uh, let's let's roll.
00:21:24
But let's roll into it.
00:21:26
Well, I think you might be looking past start next by and looking at your personal quarterback if I had to. Adventure.
00:21:33
You are talking about Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Dalton.
00:21:37
Schultz.
00:21:38
Hey, is aggregate projection tight end, 32.
00:21:42
That's why I'm rolling my eyes.
00:21:44
Like, of course, he should smash this.
00:21:46
I had to check that three times to make sure we were.
00:21:48
Actually, all of our feeds were getting in aggregate Projections for my was like, That's gotta be an error.
00:21:53
That can't be right.
00:21:54
No, it's right.
00:21:55
I don't know what people are doing or thinking, but there's not even 32 different tight end ones in the NFL this week, and we've got Enlisted a title and 30.
00:22:04
Okay, anyways, Obviously, total foresight is buying that because we have him listed as tight and five this week.
00:22:12
Home verse.
00:22:14
The Giant. Today it's 4 25.
00:22:16
Dallas again, is an over under They haven't over under 53 in this game, and there are 8.
00:22:21
5 point favorite.
00:22:22
Dalton Schultz has the best foresight, strength of schedule this week on a pro football focus.
00:22:29
You can see that the Cowboys have the 11th ranked pass block advantage on he does, though Dalton Schultz to have just the 20th ranked tight end match up this week.
00:22:38
Now, I'm not sure if Dalton Schultz is going to be tight end five this week, but I guarantee you, this guy is going to finish better than tight and 32 easy bye for me. I feel like I'm cheating.
00:22:48
Yeah, I'm with you, man.
00:22:50
Like, I wanna I wanna sell just because it makes absolutely zero sense that he wouldn't be able to eclipse tight end 32.
00:22:58
But, you know, you stated it.
00:22:59
There aren't even 32 teams playing this week, So all he has to do is be better than the worst starting tight end in the league in an air raid.
00:23:06
Essentially offense in a plus matchup.
00:23:09
So I mean, like even even for the impossible toe happen, he still has to be tight and 32 so I gotta buy this.
00:23:17
Yeah.
00:23:18
You know, it's funny with this one just because, you know, I my thought processes.
00:23:23
Yeah.
00:23:24
I don't think he'll perform very well this week because I think that New York's gonna get buried.
00:23:29
This will be a game that Dallas can just run Zeke down their throats.
00:23:33
They don't have to throw the ball much.
00:23:34
Dalton Schultz has put up some nice numbers and some extremely high volume passing games, but tied in 32.
00:23:42
Hey, will, It's like hell.
00:23:44
Still find a way.
00:23:45
I'm sure to get a handful.
00:23:47
You get one catch for one yard and be tight and 32 like that's it.
00:23:51
So so, yeah, this is one with, you know, I think he's I could see him landing on the low end, tight end to kind of radar this week, but, you know, tight and 32 I have toe.
00:24:06
I have to buy that.
00:24:07
So absolutely.
00:24:09
By 100% it's just Yeah, it's just a strange one, Like buying a guy.
00:24:14
You don't think it's really gonna have a decent game, But I honestly, I feel like you know that even I don't know, I feel like they're still gonna be plenty of past volume.
00:24:24
It's not that hard to be a tight end.
00:24:26
12 and Act loves thrown into his tight ends, but anyways, we're on the same page.
00:24:32
He's gonna be tight end 32 we'll just see what happens in that ballgame.
00:24:35
Moving on to our five cells for this week.
00:24:39
First up is who I thought Jay was.
00:24:41
Just alluding to is his Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz.
00:24:46
He is.
00:24:47
Currently he's currently aggregate projected.
00:24:49
Q B 11 total foresight agrees with you, Jay.
00:24:51
They are selling, and we have him listed as quarterback 20 to a total foresight.
00:24:56
The Eagles air at Pittsburgh today at one PM Pittsburgh is somehow just a seven point favorite, and the over under is 44 points.
00:25:04
Carson Wentz This week, folks has the worst quarterback strength of schedule in all of football.
00:25:10
At pro football focus, It gets worse.
00:25:13
They list him with the worst past block advantage this week, and it did Keeps getting worse.
00:25:19
He has the 23rd rain quarterback matchup at at Pro Football Focus and then also when looking at his wide receiver verse defensive back matchups, two of his three wide receivers have the 5th and 6th worst individual wide receiver DB matchup ranks, and his best one is 61st.
00:25:38
So from a fantasy perspective, once has drastically improved in the last two weeks versus the first two.
00:25:45
However, I just can't get past that worst ranked foresight, strength of schedule and pro football. Focus.
00:25:52
Past block advantage.
00:25:53
His wide receiver DB matchups are tough and his own matchup rank is, too.
00:25:57
And additionally, I worry about the quantity of big hits Carson is going to take this week verse that Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
00:26:04
So I'm selling his ability to be a Q B one all day.
00:26:08
I just hope the poor guy makes it through this game.
00:26:11
Uh, you know, the Eagles? They let Nick Foles go.
00:26:15
They didn't want to trade Carson Wentz.
00:26:17
They could have gotten a hall for once.
00:26:19
At that time, I wonder what they could get for once.
00:26:21
Now, probably not nearly the same price tag, and they let a guy go who led them to a Super Bowl? It was Super Bowl M V P.
00:26:28
I wonder if they're second guessing themselves on that decision, but yeah, then listen.
00:26:33
Pittsburgh maybe with the sole exception of Indianapolis at this point, this season has the best defense in this league right now, the way they are playing.
00:26:42
So the way Carson Wentz, even though he's been getting a little bit better week over week.
00:26:47
I mean, that's just a tough matchup.
00:26:48
He has nobody really to throw the ball to.
00:26:51
That offense has looked pretty poor, an anemic, and I just There's no way he's going to finish as a Q B one this week, a za, much as I want to be contrarian sometimes because things happen that just don't make sense.
00:27:04
I just don't see it this week for Philadelphia.
00:27:07
So I'm gonna agree.
00:27:08
And I'm gonna sell Carson ones.
00:27:10
Yeah, you know, aggregate projected rank of Q B 11.
00:27:15
It just really makes me wonder some of these people out there.
00:27:18
They're doing rankings on a weekly basis.
00:27:20
Like how I mean first come from Yeah.
00:27:24
I mean, what is there there? People out there that have him was like You be five this week and it's helping pull that number up.
00:27:30
I don't know, but to think that Carson Wentz going to finish this a Q B one this week just seems absolutely insane.
00:27:37
He's lacking past weapons.
00:27:39
Their offensive line is busted up.
00:27:42
Struggling Carson Wentz themselves gonna get busted up in this one.
00:27:45
And Carson Wentz has been inaccurate.
00:27:49
He's struggling.
00:27:50
He's got happy feet back.
00:27:51
I mean, it just I I can't like vomit quarterback 22 that, I mean, maybe he'll finish their, um maybe so, yeah, I have to sell this one.
00:28:03
So this might be one of the more emphatic cells I've ever had on this show.
00:28:09
Just good Lord, I'll tell you what.
00:28:14
When I when I go through and then picking these buys and sells every week, I do try to find the biggest numeric discrepancies from Ah, single position.
00:28:22
Like Carson Wentz was the hardest sell by our mechanical total foresight this week.
00:28:28
Let me throw some bonus onto this last week in, uh in Fantasy Pro's Quarterback rankings, total foresight was number five overall in Q B ranking accuracy.
00:28:42
Total foresight has him ranked as q b 22.
00:28:45
So just take that into account.
00:28:48
Yeah, yeah, don't don't player Carson Wentz this week, man, if you're thinking about playing Carson Wentz, please tweet one or all of us, and I guarantee you we will find a better one week option than Carson Wentz at the Pittsburgh this week.
00:29:02
Have you guys seen Pittsburgh's defense? Man? They got a bunch of killers over there.
00:29:06
Stay away from Pittsburgh's defense, man.
00:29:08
I hate it for the Browns, anyways.
00:29:10
Next up, we've got another cell of the week in Arizona.
00:29:14
Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake.
00:29:16
Speaking of crazy agri it projections, this guy is projected to be RB five this week total for sites selling that understands that he has a plus match up with the Jets.
00:29:27
And so we're bringing him in his RB 15.
00:29:29
Um uh, That's what I think compared to what he's done so far this year.
00:29:34
And the Cardinals are on the road versus that hapless Jets team who still have Adam Gates there at the helm.
00:29:39
So it's still gonna be crazy.
00:29:41
That's today at one PM Zona is a seven point favorite with an over under of 47 a half.
00:29:47
Now, for some reason, foresight, strength of schedule has him with the sixth best.
00:29:51
I understand it's the Jets, but at pro football focus, they list them.
00:29:55
The Cardinals, with the fifth worst run block advantage this week.
00:29:59
That's very surprising, Uh, peek behind the curtain type of stats where everybody is just projecting all.
00:30:04
It's gonna be a great game for everybody playing against the Jets.
00:30:07
Well, it looks like you might have a little bit more advantage passing the ball than you will running it.
00:30:11
So they and there are very pass happy team over there in Arizona, so that could play right into their hands.
00:30:17
Drakes best finish this season is R B 17 and that was all the way back in Week one.
00:30:23
And since then he hasn't even been a top 30 running back even one time.
00:30:28
And now he's supposed to be the running back five overall this week? Nope.
00:30:33
Not for me, man.
00:30:34
Not even verse the Jets.
00:30:36
In fact, I think his total foresight rank of R B 15 represents his ceiling this week.
00:30:42
Big time.
00:30:43
So for me? Yeah.
00:30:44
Listen, you know, we spoke about it on our last podcast that Kenyan Drake was noticeably absent late in their game last week.
00:30:51
We don't know if he picked up a little something injury wise, or if if he's even been nursing something so far, which would explain some of his lack of quality performances after being really one of the hottest commodities in the running back position during draft season.
00:31:06
So you know, it's just tough for me.
00:31:09
Then, you know, you you mentioned that Profootballfocus gives him the for the fifth worst run block advantage this week.
00:31:15
While total foresight has him as the sixth best running back strength of schedule, maybe that run block advantage is the only thing preventing him from having the first ranked running, running back strength of schedule this week.
00:31:28
You know our our metrics.
00:31:29
Take a look at their rushing a team's rushing production for the running back position against their matchups.
00:31:35
What they've given up to the running back position.
00:31:37
So it's strictly fantasy.
00:31:39
Scoring related, Um, so again, ah, plus matchup from that aspect.
00:31:44
But, you know, I just his usages concerning the fact that he may be nursing an injury is concerning.
00:31:50
The fact that you know he really hasn't looked great this season is concerning.
00:31:54
So again, I think running back 15 is pretty generous and much more accurate than RB five.
00:32:00
There's no way I'm betting on him to meet or exceed RB five.
00:32:03
So I'm selling hard on this one.
00:32:06
Yeah, I'm going to sell to you guys, you know, I know.
00:32:08
Look like like you guys both alluded to.
00:32:11
Yeah, it's It's the Jets.
00:32:12
And, you know, I think people just assume that that's an easy team to run the football against this act.
00:32:17
It's really not in all actuality and and man Kenyan direct just hasn't looked that good And for, you know, a team that is this past happy is Arizona is they really don't get Drake involved in that part of the game.
00:32:30
Which is very, um, surprising that we haven't seen Mawr of that this season, and it's really hurt.
00:32:37
Kenyan drinks overall fantasy value this season, his lack of production in the passing game.
00:32:42
So, uh, to see him finish this week is our be five.
00:32:47
Is it in the realm of possibility? I guess if he has one of those Kenyan Drake blow up games, which he's done before, it could happen.
00:32:55
But I'm not gonna bet on that with what I've seen so far this season.
00:32:58
So that said, like I said, Yeah, a cell.
00:33:03
I'll be shocked if he gets there like I said, the only way he does if he just goes bonkers, which I guess you could say he's do.
00:33:10
But I sure wouldn't put money on it, totally agree on.
00:33:15
But moving on to our next guy we've got.
00:33:18
I don't think he's made this podcast at this season and we're talking about Indianapolis Colts running back rookie Jonathan Taylor.
00:33:25
Hey! Is currently aggregate projected RB seven this week.
00:33:29
Total Force itis selling that listing him is R B 17.
00:33:33
The Colts are at Cleveland today at 4 25.
00:33:37
The Vegas line is totally even with an over under of 48 on now, I will say a lot of people probably think the Browns and just think capitalist defense.
00:33:47
But total foresight lists Jonathan Taylor with the third worst running back strength of schedule this week.
00:33:53
It will be very interesting to see who is correct between that and pro football focus, because pro football focus gives them the best run block advantage heading into Week five.
00:34:03
For the sake of my Browns fandom, I hope total foresight is more correct on that piece than pro football.
00:34:09
Focus on listen, number one, his opposing defense is not the same old Browns.
00:34:15
In fact, let me tell you a little bit about these new Browns.
00:34:18
This team has found something, and for the first time in a long as I can remember, the Browns elected to skip their scheduled off day last Monday because they were that eager to get back to work.
00:34:30
The Browns have got something for this Colts team this week, so I personally do not believe that this is a career week for J.
00:34:37
T.
00:34:38
I say that because e say it that way because that's what would have toe happen for him to hit our B seven this week.
00:34:45
Because he's finished any other week.
00:34:47
He's only been our b 14.
00:34:49
R B seven is a definite self for me.
00:34:52
Man like this guy has finished s so far throughout the season.
00:34:56
I am pulling up our consistency.
00:34:58
Right now He's been RB 15 r b 14 r, b 23 r B 37.
00:35:04
So overall he is going to have by far his best game of the year, his best game of his career.
00:35:10
This week I'm selling that go browns, baby.
00:35:13
You know what, man? I am going to Bye.
00:35:19
I'm gonna be contrarian.
00:35:20
I'm gonna buy Jonathan Taylor.
00:35:22
I know the RB seven price tag is steep.
00:35:24
Pro football focus gives him the best run block advantage s I'm gonna go against our strength of schedule metric, a total foresight or a fantasy foresight dot com.
00:35:35
And I'm gonna go against total foresight in their ranking in their cell.
00:35:39
And I hope that I'm wrong because, you know, I I just this game I could see being a tougher physical game.
00:35:46
Uh, you know, I would really For the Browns.
00:35:49
I hope the Colts pass all over the field because that's gonna lead to turnovers.
00:35:53
But if they're smart, they're gonna lean on their run game.
00:35:56
Both teams should lean on that on their run games, and this could be a run heavy game.
00:36:01
So for that reason, I'm gonna say I'm gonna buy Jonathan Taylor, maybe both running back for both teams.
00:36:06
Really kind of go off this game and get in the end zone a couple of times, so I'm gonna buy it.
00:36:11
And if I'm wrong, I'm totally fine with that.
00:36:14
And it's gonna make me very happy.
00:36:17
Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and sell our B seven.
00:36:19
I do think I do think he'll flirt with you know he'll be in that RB one range.
00:36:25
I think you know, I think some of the reason we haven't seen Taylor get, you know, is many touches the last couple of weeks is when you just kind of look at the matchups and it hasn't been necessary to get him that involved.
00:36:36
They've been games that, you know, Indianapolis gets up ahead and they've just been able to kind of, you know, I guess saved their guy so to speak.
00:36:44
And I think this is one of those games where you know he'll probably get utilized a lot more than we've seen in the past couple of weeks.
00:36:51
They'll try, but when they're down and they got to pass the ball, I'm just getting, but that's what I mean.
00:36:57
I don't see him.
00:36:58
I don't think this is all at all.
00:37:00
And it hasn't been for opposing running backs.
00:37:02
This isn't a smash spot by any means for Jonathan Taylor.
00:37:05
Do I think he could get into the end zone? Sure, and do I think that he could get 60 70 yards on 18 to 20 carries.
00:37:12
Sure, and that's not gonna be a very good or efficient day.
00:37:15
And that will probably get him right around that RB one range.
00:37:18
But you know, when you're talking RB seven, uh, you've got to do a lot more than that in my mind.
00:37:23
So I'll go ahead and sell.
00:37:25
And you know, is you guys know I have him in our league of record.
00:37:28
Happy to be wrong.
00:37:30
But actually, forget that.
00:37:32
Not at the expense of my Cleveland Browns.
00:37:34
I want Jonathan Taylor to get smoked today.
00:37:36
I don't want him getting not a single yard.
00:37:40
I love it.
00:37:42
Oh, man, This is gonna be one of those days, Stevo, where we're either coming back on Tuesday.
00:37:47
Just Brown.
00:37:48
We're gonna win the Super Bowl or it's hello, darkness, my old friend.
00:37:50
And nothing in between.
00:37:52
Eso we've got two remaining cells left this week on this podcast before we get into my favorite segment of the week, which is Steve speculative Stashes and his stash and dash strategy.
00:38:02
But we've got a couple more guys that we want you to shy away from this week.
00:38:06
If you're even considering Cincinnati Bengals wide Receiver A. J.
00:38:10
Green. Please stop.
00:38:11
Hey! Is currently somehow the aggregate projection wide receiver 15 This week, 15 for a J.
00:38:19
Green total foresight is selling him and has him much more reasonably ranked as wide receiver 31 this week.
00:38:26
The Cincinnati The Cincinnati Bengals are on the road at Baltimore today at one PM Baltimore is a 12 point favorite over Under in.
00:38:35
This game is 50.
00:38:36
5 now, I will say, somehow I I am was surprised to see this.
00:38:41
Uh, we haven't a total foresight with the eighth best wide receiver strength of schedule this week, but I'll say that doesn't even matter to me.
00:38:49
That's good for the likes of Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.
00:38:51
The wide receivers actually produce in this offense, not guys that don't do anything like a J.
00:38:56
Green on a pro football focus.
00:38:58
You can see that the Bangles have the ninth worst past block advantage, and as Faras A J Green's individual wide receiver verse defensive back matchup that comes in with a ranking of 53rd not good.
00:39:11
Truthfully, A J.
00:39:13
Green shouldn't even be on this list.
00:39:15
His best finish this season has been wide receiver 43.
00:39:19
His best finish has been wide receiver 43 yet he's being projected as wide receiver 15 this week versus the Ravens.
00:39:28
That just feels negligent and irresponsible to me.
00:39:32
I'd be happy if a J Green just catches like five balls for 50 yards this week.
00:39:37
That be a mass improvement over his recent performances.
00:39:40
But wide receiver 15 Just stop. Obvious.
00:39:43
So, um yeah, I'm with you.
00:39:45
Hey, is a sell this week.
00:39:47
I can explain the foresight strength of schedule metric a little bit.
00:39:50
You know, you saw Dwayne Haskins throw for 300 yards against this Ravens defense last week, and now you get Joe Burrow a much more accurate in a much better passer at this point in both of their careers.
00:40:01
And you would expect that the Bangles, they're gonna be playing from behind like, usual against a very good Ravens team.
00:40:07
So it would make sense that they're gonna have to sling the rock and that the volume should be there, and they're gonna have to try to do something to try to keep up with Baltimore and undoubtedly get the win.
00:40:17
But they're gonna have to throw the ball.
00:40:19
But you're right, Ben.
00:40:20
That's just a plus for Boyd and Tee Higgins, the really the fantasy wide receiver.
00:40:26
One and two on this offense. A. J.
00:40:28
Green has just fallen down.
00:40:30
I wish I could give him credit, but I can't remember who said it this week on local radio when they had a national personality on.
00:40:36
But he said, at this point, A J.
00:40:37
Green is just another guy.
00:40:40
He's not the guy he used to be.
00:40:42
Um, you know, Sure, there's talent there.
00:40:45
Just not the same player at this stage of his career coming off yet another injury.
00:40:49
So, yeah, I've got to sell.
00:40:51
Why'd receiver 15? Steve, I gotta sell that hard once again.
00:40:56
Yeah.
00:40:57
I mean, good Lord, wide receiver 15.
00:41:00
Crazy.
00:41:01
Um, so obviously, I'm gonna sell.
00:41:05
I mean, I probably still sell them at wide receiver 31 to be honest, um, you know him Just finishing in that one time this whole year has never been wide receiver 31 this whole year.
00:41:16
And that's the thing, too, when you consider Okay.
00:41:19
Well, you know Cincinnati, I think that they kind of figured out we should run our offense through.
00:41:24
Joe Mixon worked out pretty well for us last week.
00:41:27
I'll be it.
00:41:28
Baltimore Very different opponent than the Jacksonville Jaguars.
00:41:32
But still, they need to have Joe mixing involved.
00:41:34
They need to keep it on the ground.
00:41:36
You know, you see here in the forecast 100% chance of heavy rain that doesn't scream.
00:41:41
Let's air it out all over the place this week, either.
00:41:43
So you know everything.
00:41:46
I mean, you could see the entire passing offense of the Cincinnati Bengals struggling in this one.
00:41:53
So a.
00:41:54
J. Green.
00:41:55
I'm just saying, like, Don't you know if you're if you're playing any cash games today, don't keep them out of your lineups, period.
00:42:01
Even if you think like I don't care if he's the cheapest player available for you to add to your roster, you're wasting a roster spot.
00:42:09
Take a shot with some upside somewhere else.
00:42:11
Don't play a J Green Best case scenario.
00:42:14
The Ravens were smart enough to say, Hey, you know, let's try to take Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd away.
00:42:21
Okay, Well, A J.
00:42:22
Green, even in a plus matchup against their secondary.
00:42:25
Like Ben said.
00:42:26
Five balls for 48 yards would be markedly your best game of the season.
00:42:32
So hey, yeah, Anyways, that's just my really low anyway.
00:42:37
Other player, anybody else, anybody.
00:42:41
The most expensive decoy in the NFL and nobody's even getting tricked anymore.
00:42:47
It's both my like, not not rostered pretty much at all Stashes.
00:42:53
I'd rather play both the guys I'm gonna talk about here shortly over a J. Green.
00:42:57
I mean, I benched him for guys like O. J.
00:43:00
You know, alluded to my terrible luck in our league of record this year.
00:43:04
So I'm bench and A J.
00:43:05
Green this week for guys like Greg Ward for had been guys like Tim Patrick.
00:43:09
Now it's Zakia ola media uh, you know, So it's just on and on it goes, man.
00:43:16
Just anybody but a J.
00:43:17
Green, which probably means he is going to be the wide receiver one in somebody's millionaire maker contest and draftkings this week makes perfect sense with 2020 eso.
00:43:26
Congratulations, whoever The contrarian homer for A J.
00:43:29
Green is out there.
00:43:30
A J Green stat line from week 52 catches, two touchdowns for two yards.
00:43:35
Yeah, no kidding.
00:43:36
And he ends up being wide receiver 14 barely making us wrong.
00:43:40
That would be so.
00:43:42
2020 Fantasy football.
00:43:44
All right, last one before we get out of here and move on to Steve.
00:43:48
Speculative Stashes.
00:43:49
We've got Miami Dolphins.
00:43:51
Tight end.
00:43:52
Might gets sick.
00:43:53
E uh, he he is currently projected as tight end five.
00:43:56
This week.
00:43:57
Total foresight is selling that we have him listed as tight end 13.
00:44:00
A respectable back end streamer type of tight end. For sure.
00:44:04
The Dolphins are at San Francisco today at 405 p.
00:44:08
M.
00:44:09
The Niners Aaron eight point favorite in this game as an over under a 51 points at total Foresight.
00:44:14
We list my kasicky with the second worst strength of schedule this week.
00:44:18
Pro football Focus agrees with us from the standpoint that they have the 12 worst past block advantage.
00:44:24
So there's not gonna be a ton of time for Fitz Magic to get the ball out.
00:44:27
But I will say pro football focus does give Kosecki the eighth best tight end match up this week.
00:44:33
And Steve, thank you for bringing up whether I do look at our Weather channel app in preparation for this podcast.
00:44:39
Weather has not been a factor in any of the games except the one that Steve just talked about with a J.
00:44:43
Green last week with, you know, high 70 with 100% chance of heavy rain.
00:44:48
Uh, no Other weather has is looking to factor into the rest of these games.
00:44:53
And that goes to my Kosecki and the Dolphins over there in San Fran as well.
00:44:57
Um, gas, Icky.
00:44:58
Has Onley finished as a top 20 top 20 tight end once this season, and it took him 11 targets in a week to shoot out with the Bills.
00:45:08
To accomplish that, I mean, he's only seen five total targets over the last two weeks.
00:45:13
I just don't see any indication that leads us to an aggregate projection of tight end five this week.
00:45:19
Me and total foresight are together all the way.
00:45:22
Didn't agree with disagree with total foresight.
00:45:24
One time in this episode, Hopefully it bodes well for us both.
00:45:28
I'm selling.
00:45:29
Let's go.
00:45:30
You know what? I am also going to sell.
00:45:32
I'm with you, man.
00:45:33
Just it's a tough matchup, man.
00:45:36
Tightened five.
00:45:37
Just a hard price tag to bet on.
00:45:40
So, you know, he's probably gonna finish.
00:45:42
It has tightened for now.
00:45:44
But what the heck? Uh, yeah, I'm gonna sell, and I'm there with both you guys.
00:45:50
I just think it's It's the logical thing to Dio.
00:45:56
What about this season has been logical? Steve, I know what you know. The chance.
00:46:02
The tight end landscape being what it is, I I understand that you can catch six balls for 68 yards and a touchdown and be right in that tight end five range.
00:46:12
I understand that I get that, but it's just all about the probability and odds off Kosecki doing that this particular week with this particular matchup.
00:46:22
And I just I can't get behind betting on that.
00:46:25
So I want and I'll sell.
00:46:27
Can you finish is tightened 10 14.
00:46:31
You know, in that range? Yeah, Absolutely.
00:46:33
I think that's a lot more likely.
00:46:34
Um, but tight end five.
00:46:36
I just can't Can't do it Won't do it never will do it.
00:46:40
So that's where I am that one.
00:46:43
No, no, no.
00:46:45
All right, all right.
00:46:46
That does it for our buys and sells this week.
00:46:48
Like I said, we had.
00:46:49
We had Tim.
00:46:50
Patrick has a buy.
00:46:51
We had Jerry Judy as a cell, but that game is not happening.
00:46:54
So I did all that research for nothing.
00:46:56
So thank you, co vid, um, but are my favorite segment every single week is Steve speculative stash Siri's If you've got some middling wide receiver five at the end of your bench, maybe like an a J.
00:47:08
Green, consider dropping them for you know, any handcuff like cheer fire backup, workhorse running back type of role or some guy that just has the ability where, if depending on the landscape this week could end up being one of the top waiver wire targets of Week six? So you know, just the stashing dash is just a fun little extra penny stock way to enjoy fantasy football every Sunday.
00:47:32
Just keep an eye on kickoff times.
00:47:34
Whoever just have that one spot at the end of your bench that you just like to rotate guys out and try and go for that Max upside.
00:47:41
So Steve taken away with your week five speculative Stashes as in tow, piggyback off of some of what you just said.
00:47:48
Benny is, um, yeah, more valuable, probably than any other kind of stash you can make is, you know, ensure you're running backs.
00:47:59
Ensure your opponents running backs.
00:48:02
And, you know, Ben mentioned Stash and Dash.
00:48:04
You know, it's just like a kind of a little slang saying we like toe have for hey, Thursday Night Football is going to kick off there.
00:48:13
Any guys available from that game, you could throw out the end of your bench that should the running back go down in front of them? Would that give them some instant? You know, at least flexibility in your league.
00:48:22
Would that put them in that running back? Three Running back to radar? You wanna have those guys on the end of your bench and come the end of the Thursday night game? Nobody was injured.
00:48:33
Okay, Dropping.
00:48:34
You have the 1 p.m.
00:48:35
Sunday slate coming up.
00:48:36
There's probably guys sitting around out there in your league throws.
00:48:39
Throw one of those guys that looks decent.
00:48:41
Should they become the starter at the end of the bench, see what happens.
00:48:45
4.
00:48:46
25 PM Slate comes up.
00:48:48
Drop the guy from 1 p.m.
00:48:50
If he isn't, you know, deem if you don't deem him worthy of holding him, drop him.
00:48:55
You got Sunday Night Football.
00:48:56
Same thing.
00:48:57
Monday Night Football this week, we got Tuesday night football and just keep it rolling.
00:49:01
S so long as you have that that burn in turn bench spot.
00:49:04
And I know I like to have that available.
00:49:06
There's many leagues is possible just for that reason.
00:49:09
Um, because, you know, I understand these air like lottery scratch off tickets pretty much you're probably not gonna hit on many, if any of them throughout a season.
00:49:18
But if you do this and you do it long enough often enough, you're bound to get something at some point in time.
00:49:25
So and it makes the games a little more fun and interesting, because you're just kind of like, Hey, this guy worth keeping Okay, cool.
00:49:32
No, I'll just go get somebody else.
00:49:34
So stash and dash do that as often as possible and especially with the running backs guys, especially the running backs.
00:49:42
Um, So what? That kind of little up P s a out of the way we will get into the actual players I have specifically that I think our stash worthy this week and I do have to admit is the season is the season rolls along, and I find this every year.
00:49:57
It does get harder and harder to try to find guys, especially this year, where you have co vid postponing games, canceling games, the rash of injuries because people are digging really deep just to find players to put in their rosters.
00:50:09
So I do like to try to focus on upcoming by weeks.
00:50:13
Aziz.
00:50:14
Well, because I think especially this season, you don't wanna wait until you're looking at replacing a guy the week of thereby because there's other opponents in your league.
00:50:24
They're looking to do the same thing.
00:50:25
So if you can stash a guy that you know you're not going to use this week, but with the thought, Hey, I can start this guy in place of my stuff that I'm losing for the week because guys, next week we have New Orleans, Las Vegas and Seattle all on by, and there's a lot of fancy relevant players.
00:50:43
We're talking Russell Wilson, D K.
00:50:44
Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Album camera, Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs.
00:50:52
That's a lot of players that people are gonna be going without next week's, say, Derek Carr.
00:50:57
I'm confused.
00:50:59
Well, he's the one guy we don't have.
00:51:02
Thio, obviously.
00:51:04
But you know, So what does jump right into it? You're gonna I don't think people should be starting Drew Brees, but some people still are, but everybody is starting Russell Wilson if they have them, but they're not gonna have them next week.
00:51:18
So look in advance at your quarterback landscape, and I really like adding Justin Herbert, quarterback of the Los Angeles Chargers.
00:51:28
He's only rostered, and 17% of leagues and guys he he's put up some nice fantasy numbers against defense is that are not fantasy friendly defense's um, And then next week, he's got the New York Jets, and we talked about earlier.
00:51:43
Jets aren't necessarily a team that you attack on the ground, which, by the way, Austin secular done for the foreseeable future.
00:51:49
So that's even more of a reason that we probably see, um, the Chargers air it out a little bit next week.
00:51:55
But, you know, you have the Jets traveling from New York all the way out to L. A.
00:52:00
Um, and that team might have already given up on the season.
00:52:03
Should have given up given up on the season by the time they make that trip.
00:52:06
I just think that that's kind of a smash spot for Herbert next week and certainly worth stashing to play for your Russell Wilson lost, you know, next week and that affect Kirk Cousins.
00:52:19
I throw in the same boat.
00:52:21
He I mean, he's a guy you could use.
00:52:23
This week is a streamer, but he's got Atlanta coming to town next week and the Vikings defense.
00:52:30
It's been terrible this season.
00:52:32
Atlanta can score points.
00:52:34
This I'm sure.
00:52:36
When the Vegas line comes out, we'll probably have, Ah, relatively high over under.
00:52:40
And if there's gonna be, ah, spot where Kirk Cousins can smash this 2020 season, it's going to be next week when they play the Atlanta Falcons.
00:52:49
So he's available in 71% of leagues right now because he's only rostered in 29 of them.
00:52:54
Yeah, there's some quick math right off the top of my head right there.
00:52:57
But e o.
00:53:01
I am an accountant after all, But so, yeah, I like both of those quarterbacks.
00:53:07
So if if you're if you've been rolling with Drew Brees for whatever reason and certainly for those who have Russell Wilson keep those two guys in mind and depending on you guys out there listening, you know your leagues.
00:53:17
You know how you know if you have to grab quarterbacks early, and if you do, definitely those are the guys to do it with.
00:53:23
So, um, I do have a couple of wide receivers that I consider pretty deep Stashes because one guy is roster, 2% of leagues and one guy's rostered and 0% of leagues.
00:53:34
But we'll start off with, uh, the mere bird wide receiver of the New England Patriots currently available in 98% of your leagues out there.
00:53:44
Um, you know this the guy that should get your attention a little bit simply for the fact that he's gotten 22 targets over the past three weeks uh, reeled in 14 of those for a buck 79.
00:53:55
And, you know, two of the three games that I'm speaking of, he scored 13 or more PPR points.
00:54:01
You know, we are talking about, you know, PPR formats here and given I listed off a lot of wide receivers that people are going to be out next week.
00:54:11
Um given that he's been seeing the targets, he's somebody that you could go and grab.
00:54:17
Stash, see, you know, just kind of see, um, What what his target share looks like this week? Well, actually, I'm sorry they're not even playing.
00:54:27
I take that back, but still somebody who's probably worth stashing just to see what his how he develops, moving forward if he continues to see the target share that he's been getting and a guy that I'm a little more excited about, probably just because he's 0% rostered.
00:54:42
So that just makes him even more intriguing to me.
00:54:45
But Jeff Smith, wide receiver of the New York Jets, another undrafted free agent.
00:54:53
Uh, this guy made his 2020 debut last week, and what got my attention is it's nine targets caught seven of them for 81 yards was over 15 PPR points.
00:55:04
Now this is just one game, very small sample size.
00:55:08
But when you was also with Flacco, another a piece of continuity from one week to this week, and that's a good point.
00:55:17
And so when you look at the New York Jets at the end of the day, this is a team that's gonna be behind in games will for the foreseeable future.
00:55:26
They'll be throwing the ball.
00:55:27
I mean, I know Adam gazes.
00:55:29
I mean, sorry. The guy's a moron.
00:55:31
He will try to find a way toe to run the ball, even when they're down 21 points.
00:55:36
But I digress.
00:55:37
But the point being there's gonna be targets to go around.
00:55:40
And there are targets to go around in New York because they don't have pass catchers.
00:55:45
Like I understand there's Jamison Crowder, but he this a guy that struggles to be healthy and on the field has his whole entire career.
00:55:52
And just because he's on the field doesn't mean that there's nowhere else the Balkan go to.
00:55:57
So the fact that Jeff Smith came in and had a really nice performance out of nowhere, it just, you know, got my attention.
00:56:06
He's somebody that you certainly aren't gonna throw out there and play him this week.
00:56:10
But stash him and just kind of see how he looks again.
00:56:13
It's one of those things where if he get 789 targets again this week, that's worth Rasta Ring and fantasy football, especially when you have all these guys that are gonna be on by next week, because, I mean, you're gonna have to put someone out there.
00:56:28
I'd rather put a guy out there that I think is gonna get 78 or nine targets with the potential to catch 567 balls and give me double digit PPR points like I like having a guy like that at the end of my bench that I could use Overall, you know, there's so many wide receivers out there like, Gosh, Randall Cobb that, you know, what's the up? What's the upside? He might get you a dozen points, but he also could give you four like he's done several times.
00:56:57
So yeah, And for all we know, by the end of 2020 just Smith might be the wide receiver one for the New York Jets.
00:57:04
You never know.
00:57:05
So and that's why it's a stash.
00:57:06
And, you know, I just That's a guy that was probably the most intriguing one I have for the week.
00:57:11
So we talked about stashing and dashing guys and, you know, we talked about ensuring running back, So that's really all I got for this week.
00:57:19
Well, Steve Oh, it's Ah, you know, it's a great philosophical and strategic pivot out of you to understand that, you know, the deeper in this season we go, the fewer speculative Stashes they're going to be.
00:57:30
But one thing every team does have to worry about eyes buys.
00:57:34
And so, like you said, you don't wanna be thinking about next week when everybody else is thinking about next week.
00:57:40
You wanna be thinking about next week now.
00:57:42
And if you have any burnable roster spots, start bolstering your roster for next week instead of just having a guy wasting space at the end of your bench.
00:57:49
So, Steve, I love that segment every single week.
00:57:52
And you know, you can also go check out Steve's great work at the, uh, foresight encyclopedia tab at fantasy foresight dot com to read all of the extensive notes that he gives about these speculative Stashes every week.
00:58:05
It's a great piece to read for sure.
00:58:07
So, uh, sorry to interrupt.
00:58:09
Really Quick goes right along with the whole, you know, stash thing and bye Weeks is I think, what we have to focus on even more when it comes to preparing for bye Weeks is in the past, you could look around your league, right? And you could say, Well, hey, you know, there's only this team and this team that are gonna be affected by the bye week.
00:58:28
They don't have positions I have.
00:58:30
Okay, I can wait till next week, but we have to start considering we don't know what teams are going to be playing every week, what games are gonna be postponed or canceled? And that's just besides the higher rate of injury that we're seeing.
00:58:42
So you know, it's like more than ever know when you have your key players on bye weeks and prepare for it.
00:58:49
Stash guys, For that reason, So sorry, but I'll let you get back Thio.
00:58:53
Oh, no worries that that was pretty much it, man.
00:58:55
And, uh, it did just come out, at least from I just got a Yahoo notification that Yahoo is going to be treating the Broncos and Patriots as if Week five is there by eso to that point, Steve, you don't know going into every week who's gonna be on a bike who's not what What's concerning, though, guys is this whole flip flop shift and buys works right now.
00:59:17
what's gonna happen in Week 10 when you can't teams already out of by, you're gonna give him two bis.
00:59:23
I mean, they could could get ugly, for sure, but you gotta plan ahead.
00:59:28
Football way, dio.
00:59:31
Just everybody just take a pause.
00:59:33
We'll just pause the season, and we will resume in a week or two.
00:59:36
That's a great idea, Steve.
00:59:38
I love that it could go a long as it needs to go.
00:59:40
Just give us our full slate of games, baby.
00:59:43
It'll be.
00:59:44
Perhaps there it is. J. C.
00:59:46
Between that and NFL Island Hawaii fantasy Foresight.
00:59:50
The podcast has all the solutions that these millionaires and billionaires can't come up with in the NFL.
00:59:55
Guys, come on now.
00:59:56
It's not that hard.
00:59:58
All right, So you guys got anything else before we get out of here and enjoy these games today? Let's go, man.
01:00:03
I am so sorry for today's slate.
01:00:05
Yes.
01:00:06
Go browns.
01:00:07
Indeed.
01:00:08
Everybody out there keep your eyes peeled to the news.
01:00:10
Keep your stash dash antennas up and, uh, you know, enjoy this slate of football while we've got it because we don't know if we're gonna have it for 16 weeks.
01:00:19
so enjoy it today on we will be back with you at eight.
01:00:23
Pm on Tuesday night to review this undoubtedly wild and crazy Week five And to give you all of your waiver wire targets And in two weeks, six can't wait.
01:00:34
And that wraps up this episode of fantasy foresight the podcast way.
01:00:39
Thank you for joining us.
01:00:40
Be sure to visit us as always at fantasy foresight dot com Use the links at the bottom of the page to find us across social media, including Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and wherever you pod.
01:00:54
We hope you enjoy the episode and we'll see you next.
01:00:56
Maybe you're right, But can you imagine how uncomfortable it must be to like one on one? Sit across the table from Adam? Gays? People probably just get a job to get him out of their office.
01:01:05
Bro. Get out of my office.
01:01:07
Yeah, okay.
01:01:08
You got a job? Leave me alone.
01:01:09
Stop looking at me.
01:01:11
Just dio be very busy.
01:01:12
E o oh, he'd be like, Have you seen that taco video? I was gonna say I'm sure they had, like, a good working relationship, But we all but But that's it.
01:01:41
Like I'm sure Adam Gates was pretty much like a yes man.
01:01:47
Yeah, precisely.
01:01:49
Then how much credit should a pilot get for flying a plane on autopilot? I mean, come on. Now.
01:01:56
You know, like you said, Jay, maybe he's, you know, this the smartest guy in the room, actually, in the way that he's like, Hey, I know, I know.
01:02:07
I don't know Jack about anything, but let me go parlay this into some head coaching jobs because people are dumb enough to give it to me and yeah, yeah, I don't know.
01:02:23
You'll never hear from me again. I promise.
01:02:25
Yeah.
01:02:26
Okay.
01:02:27
Someone want to send me, like, $3000? Yeah.
01:02:35
I was gonna say I gotta keep my expectations realistic down here, Uh

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