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00:00:01
Yeah.
00:00:03
Okay.
00:00:05
Yeah. What's up, everybody? We alive.
00:00:07
I'm having far fewer technical difficulties.
00:00:11
And I was on Thursday nights stream, so that is a very positive thing to get us started with.
00:00:18
For those of you who are with us on Thursday, you know, we had to do three different iteration of the stream.
00:00:23
Hopefully, that's not gonna be the case here tonight as we are going Thio breakdown every single game for you as we always do on Saturday night before the big NFL Sunday.
00:00:34
I have Henry with me at Hank Time Sports.
00:00:37
I am at Sun Holes on Sports.
00:00:40
Um, I always say this and were never able to do it, but I think we're gonna try and keep this within an hour tonight.
00:00:46
Um, it might be more doable since there's a few games that are obviously off the slate.
00:00:51
Do joining us in the comments section here.
00:01:00
Soon as I'm just gonna fire off this tweet here and we are ready to go.
00:01:06
So as mentioned, this is our gambling show here on Hillary sports.
00:01:11
You can accept this every single Saturday.
00:01:13
We here tonight got a fat in parlay that I really love that I'll give at the end of the stream and yeah, that.
00:01:28
Ah, lots more football to talk about here.
00:01:30
As we start with the week for Slate, it is actually my best bet of the week right off the bat.
00:01:38
Um, as if you're live joining us live.
00:01:40
Thank you for being with us live.
00:01:42
Thank you for checking out the re stream.
00:01:44
Appreciate all of you watching.
00:01:46
If you'd like to follow along with us, I am just going to go right down in the order that draftkings has.
00:01:52
This has these games listed.
00:01:54
It starts with the Seahawks and the Miami Dolphins.
00:01:57
This to 5.
00:02:02
5 in favor of the Seahawks.
00:02:04
I've got this line in all different kinds of ways.
00:02:07
Just took 5.
00:02:08
5 about an hour ago.
00:02:09
I've also got the Seahawks at 66.
00:02:10
5 and tease them all the way up to eight.
00:02:14
Um, I simply think the Seahawks are a much better team even without Chris Carson.
00:02:19
I think Russell Wilson is unstoppable right now.
00:02:22
Um, and I just don't see another huge week on the horizon. Four.
00:02:27
Fitzpatrick, Although I do kind of like Devante Parker is a fantasy play this week.
00:02:31
I like the Seahawks here, especially as at 5.
00:02:35
5.
00:02:36
I liked him at 6.5, so of course I love him at 5.5.
00:02:39
Um, maybe something fishy? Kind of, you know? Why is this line only 5.
00:02:43
5? I'm not quite sure.
00:02:45
Are the Dolphins just better than we think? Or is there something else going on? Henry, how do you read this game? What do you make of that 5.
00:02:51
5 point line? Well, this is a fun one to start off with, I think for sure.
00:02:57
Especially with you being on the opposite side of the line movement here, Jake.
00:03:01
So I'm excited to dive into this a little more.
00:03:03
Just looking at the lines out in Las Vegas.
00:03:07
That's where I like thio.
00:03:09
Kind of.
00:03:10
Even though I'm obviously not out in Vegas, I'd like to reference those lines just because I feel like you're not gonna get much of a better sense of the market that when you're looking out there as far as total this stuff this open 6.
00:03:21
5, um, out there and a Z, Jake said Five and a halfs, pretty much across the board here now.
00:03:28
I've been hearing a lot of Sharps throughout the week.
00:03:31
A lot of smart people who like Miami in this spot, and I think it's the general perception that this game is gonna be a shootout, right? So Chris Carson, I think, is, uh, probably going to suit up for this game.
00:03:46
I'm seeing game time decision now, so that's a boost.
00:03:49
Thio Seattle's offense.
00:03:50
Just having the running game to complement Russell Wilson in the passing game.
00:03:54
My biggest concern for Seattle is there gonna be without Jamal Adams, and this is a defense that has not been particularly impressive.
00:04:02
You're these first three weeks.
00:04:03
I know they've won every single game, but it let's be honest.
00:04:06
Russell Wilson has been just untouchable here.
00:04:09
These first three weeks, the defense has been giving up a lot of points and now you're down your safety and that is troublesome to me.
00:04:17
I think Ryan, Patrick and the Dolphins offense will be able to score, and well, I don't know if they'll keep pace the whole way.
00:04:27
Uh, I agree with you, obviously, here I think Seattle is the better team and at least should win this game.
00:04:34
Well, I don't know if they'll keep pace the whole way.
00:04:36
I am worried about, like maybe like a sneaky back to recover.
00:04:39
So when this line was hovering around 6.
00:04:40
5 7, I think there were there might have been 7.
00:04:43
5 at one point here in the week.
00:04:46
That would be a little rich, I think, for me to back the Seahawks at that point 5.
00:04:51
5, definitely little more doable here with this recent line move.
00:04:55
Uh, the other thing.
00:04:56
Just, you know, to keep in mind for this game.
00:04:59
This is about as far of a road trip is You can make in the NFL, right? Pacific Northwest, all the way down to South Florida s.
00:05:05
So this is quite the haul for Seattle.
00:05:07
Miami is coming off playing Thursday night last week, so they've got a little more rest a good spot for them.
00:05:12
Uh, and, you know, while they're probably not gonna be able to surprise, uh, Seattle and Russell Wilson like they were Gardner Minshew, Um, you know, this is a It's kind of a difficult spot here. for the Seahawks.
00:05:25
I'm seeing totals on this game right now.
00:05:29
Hovering around.
00:05:30
So 54 half, I think, is what I've got.
00:05:34
Yeah.
00:05:35
54 4 and a half.
00:05:37
I can't bet this game under.
00:05:39
That's the other injury on the Miami side.
00:05:41
We already discussed Jamal Adams firing.
00:05:43
Jones is gonna be out for this game for Miami.
00:05:45
That's their top corner.
00:05:47
There is no way I'm pulling the string under here, so I think if I were gonna bet it, it would be at the current price.
00:05:54
I like your Seattle pick.
00:05:56
Uh, those older lines.
00:05:57
I would probably be behind back on Miami, but I think this game is definitely gonna be issued out.
00:06:03
Like you said.
00:06:04
A lot of things leaning in the favor of Miami here, right? I mean, Seattle's got to travel.
00:06:09
Miami had the extra time off.
00:06:11
Seattle's down, their best defender, everything leaning towards the direction of Miami.
00:06:15
I just don't think it matters.
00:06:16
I think Seattle is that good of a football team.
00:06:18
I am a little bit worried about, like you said a back door cover.
00:06:22
Ryan Fitzpatrick never gives up.
00:06:24
Obviously, he's like he's the king of scoring touchdowns with, like, 13 seconds left to go, even though Miami's down by, you know, 13 or 15 or whatever, but he usually sticks one in the end zone.
00:06:35
It could cost you end up costing you to cover.
00:06:37
Um, I teased them all the way up Thio minus eight at one point earlier this week because I was getting, like, plus 1 30 money for it or something, and figured it was worth the shot.
00:06:47
Especially since I'm on them in three different bets at more favorable lines.
00:06:52
But I'm not so confident in the eight.
00:06:55
I feel pretty good about the 5.
00:06:56
5 Aziz.
00:06:58
Long as Fitzpatrick's doesn't do something to me right at the end.
00:07:01
There don't love the total either way, But of course, you're gonna go over if you are going to pick one of that one of these or one of the two here.
00:07:09
Um, I think both offenses are going to be able to score on the opposing defense.
00:07:14
So obviously you know, the over is is the better bet here, But I'm not in love with with that either side of the total.
00:07:23
So I'm gonna be sticking to my 5.
00:07:24
5 and just to cross my fingers and hope that they can cover the eight along the way as well.
00:07:29
Um, so yeah, that's Ah, that is the first game on the slate.
00:07:35
Should be a good one.
00:07:36
Russell Wilson, of course, with 13 touchdown passes in the first three weeks sets an NFL record and, uh, is looking to continue on that M V P type season down in Miami.
00:07:46
Second game of the slate eyes, a game that I threw out during our start sit um, Stream on Thursday, I threw it out there.
00:07:55
The Ravens minus 13.5.
00:07:56
I said, Book it, Take it.
00:07:58
I don't think Washington is gonna be able to score on this Ravens team at all.
00:08:01
I think the Ravens offense is gonna bounce back.
00:08:04
Lamar didn't even have 100 yards passing against Kansas City last week.
00:08:08
I think he reds that wrong line is off the Ravens early on in the week, I think like Tuesday, I got on the Ravens and they were minus 13 so I have it locked in at minus 13.
00:08:21
I don't mind minus 14 but I like the 13 13.
00:08:24
5 better if you could still find that total on this game is 45 a half.
00:08:29
Um, again, That line scares me just because I don't think Washington is gonna be able to score at all.
00:08:35
So I definitely I'm avoiding the over on this game Unless you're banking on the Ravens scoring? I don't know.
00:08:40
35 40 points themselves.
00:08:43
What do you think of this game, Henry Ravens right now favored by 14.
00:08:49
I think this is just gonna be another game where we see Dwayne Haskins struggle and whether Alex Smith is ready or not.
00:08:57
Uh, it might be Kyle Allen to start, but the Washington football team is gonna have a new starting quarterback here, if not next week.
00:09:03
It might be the week after.
00:09:04
I really feel like after the comments last week, Ron Rivera.
00:09:09
He knows what he's got here.
00:09:10
This move starting Haskins who? I don't know where you've come down on him, Jake. Exactly.
00:09:16
I've been saying all along.
00:09:17
He's not ready to start in the NFL, and he may never be, but, you know, you at least gotta let the kid developed.
00:09:24
He's not there right now.
00:09:25
Eso Ron River has done this to appease management, and then they can move on.
00:09:30
And I think that's gonna be coming sooner rather than later after this game.
00:09:35
Because, like you said, I don't see Washington having a whole ton of success offensively in this game.
00:09:41
Uh, the Ravens.
00:09:43
For all their struggles against the run last year, they are ranked number two through the first three weeks.
00:09:49
Again adjusted run.
00:09:50
Defensive efficiency on.
00:09:53
That's according to football outsiders.
00:09:55
D v O A.
00:09:57
Antonio Gibson is not gonna have a prayer in this game.
00:10:00
I think Baltimore Game script is going to see the Ravens jump out to a lead.
00:10:04
That's gonna put more pressure on Haskins.
00:10:06
And then it's just gonna be pinning the years back here for this Ravens pass rush, Um, looking at the lines out in Las Vegas.
00:10:15
It opened at 12.
00:10:17
I'm seeing it even 12 and it is at 14 across the board and even two touchdowns.
00:10:22
There's 1 14.
00:10:23
5, and I don't know exactly what the stipulations are on a fanduel super boost, but I was informed today that you are able to play the Ravens.
00:10:36
I think it was 12.
00:10:38
5 a two plus 1 10 through Fanduel.
00:10:41
That's about I'm taking.
00:10:43
I like that a lot based on just the line moves that we've seen here.
00:10:47
That's the best of the number that you're going to get at this point.
00:10:50
That's almost opening Vegas line.
00:10:51
Andi also.
00:10:52
I just think Baltimore wins this game easy for some ridiculous stat I heard this week.
00:10:58
Road favorites of two touchdowns, like like Baltimore in this spot are like 16 and two.
00:11:04
I think it was 80 s in the last 18.
00:11:07
I'm not sure how far back that goes exactly.
00:11:10
It's gonna be a little ways, because I feel like you're not gonna have too many of this larger road favorite like this, but from ridiculous success rate that favors Baltimore.
00:11:19
So, uh, if you're able to play that at Fanduel, I like that a lot.
00:11:25
It's not the only massive line we're gonna talk about today.
00:11:28
Obviously, when we get to it, the Rams line is pretty big as well, but they are not on the road.
00:11:34
So that's the difference between the Rams and the Ravens here, I think also to you, you mentioned about how Ron Rivera started Dwayne Haskins to kind of appease management and stuff.
00:11:45
Um, that very that very fact, mixed with the fact that it's Alex Smith behind him, makes me think that the Redskins are actually a sneaky candidate to end up with Trevor Lawrence.
00:11:57
Obviously, it's been between, you know, the big name, the big, uh, the big time, Um, conversation with who's gonna land him has been, you know, Jets.
00:12:06
Should the Jets moved on from Sam Donald, maybe draft him.
00:12:09
Is it going to be the, uh, Jaguars? Obviously, from the beginning of the season, that's been the talk.
00:12:14
Jaguar is gonna go all in 16 draft.
00:12:16
Trevor Lawrence.
00:12:17
Whatever.
00:12:18
I think.
00:12:19
I think that if you could put your money we saw with Arizona When Cliff Kingsbury came, Kingsbury came in.
00:12:33
Obviously, Josh roses there who? They spent a very high draft pick on.
00:12:37
Um, joining Haskins is here now who they spent a high draft draft pick on.
00:12:41
But the thing is, when you're NFL coach, um, around there is a little bit different because he's not a new NFL coach like Cliff Kingsbury.
00:12:47
But when you're in NFL, coach was just hired at a by a new franchise.
00:12:52
You have to get your guy like you have to have your guy, your ride or die type guy because you can't come in and deal with what you were given or deal with.
00:13:02
You know, the previous coaching staffs selection, because if things don't go right for you, I mean, if we've seen how short of a leash a lot of NFL coaches have, and again, Ron Rivera might be different because of, you know, people's respect that he has for him and the fact he's been in the league forever.
00:13:19
But your new NFL head coach, you come in, you got to set everything up with your guys your way because if the sink it starts toe, if the ship starts to sink and you're the one that's gonna be blamed for it, you have to make sure that you know you were the one who put everything in order that you're not, I guess, going down because of somebody else's choices because of somebody else's selection.
00:13:41
So you're gonna wanna get your guy in there fully like I guess I had ride or die with.
00:13:48
That is not Dwayne Haskins for him I don't think that's Alex Smith for him, either.
00:13:51
So I think you know, I could see them, them drafting another quarterback, Whether it's Trevor Lawrence or not.
00:13:57
You got to get a fresh, some fresh blood in there.
00:13:59
You gotta get your guy in there and establish your team, your roster moving forward.
00:14:04
And I think that's what Ron Rivera is gonna dio eso, no matter who is under center for the remainder of this Washington football season.
00:14:11
I don't think that we see that same player there next year.
00:14:16
Yeah, I completely agree.
00:14:17
And I think that's a huge reason why.
00:14:19
You know, everyone's like, Oh, Kyle Allen sucked last year and yet Washington goes out and brings them in.
00:14:24
Ron Rivera has familiarity there and knowing, you know, we didn't even know if Alex Smith would make it back, Uh, when the team made that signing.
00:14:33
Now things are looking better.
00:14:35
He's still not ready.
00:14:36
But just having Kyle and turn to that's one of the other reasons why I think Haskins time a starting quarterback here is just it's it's numbered here in terms of maybe even days.
00:14:47
At this point, we could even see Kyle Allen tomorrow and I Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked because Ron Rivera has that familiarity with him in the time in Carolina.
00:14:56
And I think I kind of got a bad rap last year, too.
00:14:58
I mean, I know there were a lot of interceptions.
00:15:01
There were a lot of dubious throws, Sure, in terms of injuries and just quality of Lee.
00:15:10
I know it's not much better in Washington right now, but I don't think Ron Rivera would hesitate to turn him if he has Thio.
00:15:17
And one other point I wanted to make on this game. Chase Young.
00:15:20
If you haven't heard he is out with a groin injury so that just, you know, plays right into I think, what the Ravens they're gonna be able to do here offensively, they're coming off a disappointing loss.
00:15:31
Lamar Jackson, then company.
00:15:33
They'll come out pretty turned up, I think here, Right off the gun.
00:15:39
Yeah, I'm comfortable with the Ravens in this spot.
00:15:41
And the other thing about Kyle Allen is you know, we've seen a lot worse, right? Like we've seen.
00:15:45
It's not like, you know, we've seen Nathan Peterman.
00:15:47
We've seen him come into games and we've seen what he can dio.
00:15:50
We've seen a guy like Brock Osweiler, you know, come in and have a Kyle Allen like performance for a couple weeks, and he populated into an $18 million contract or whatever it was per year contract.
00:16:00
Like I you know, we've seen worse than Kyle Alan before and again.
00:16:03
I don't think that Rivera rolls forward with Allen is a long term starter, but might be that Gap guy that he's familiar with.
00:16:10
He might be trying to groom him for a long term backup and then go go draft his guy in the upcoming draft.
00:16:16
It's and Washington is set up because their defense is so good they're set up to have a turnaround like we're seeing with the Cardinals.
00:16:23
I mean, the Cardinals were really bad under Josh Rosen and under I don't even remember who was their coach before Cliff Kingsbury.
00:16:29
But you make a few changes.
00:16:31
You bring in a quarterback, you bring in, uh, you know, quarterback that works well with the new head coach.
00:16:35
Now, look it. They're winning games.
00:16:37
They turn things around within two seasons.
00:16:38
I think Washington has the potential to do that as well, but they're not gonna do it with Dwayne Haskins or really anybody in that quarterback room right now.
00:16:46
Yeah, You can't tell me Kyle Allen is not better than Dwayne Haskins.
00:16:50
Right now.
00:16:51
I just I That's not even an argument for May, based on what we saw last year and what we're still seeing now and asking, and I totally agree with you football team has got an intriguing future here.
00:17:00
I think if you shore up obviously the offensive line, you're gonna wanna gonna wanna look at the secondary and then the quarterback situation to me, the second most important, arguably second, most important position, I think after quarterback on an NFL team is the defensive line.
00:17:22
I know the offensive line is very important, but when you have a defensive line that could dictate a game like Washington's has the talent to do and mind you, they're all young, so they're only going to continue to get better here.
00:17:34
It's an exciting future if they draft right, and that's been a big if with this franchise, I believe rib Eric and turn that around full trusted riverboat run full trust in riverboat Ron and I believe they have the assets to try and make some sort of exciting trade down the line.
00:17:50
If they wanted to do so as well again, Maybe kind of mirroring the cardinals and what we're seeing out in Arizona s O.
00:17:57
Of course, that's all coming in the future for Washington this week.
00:18:02
Uh, they're gonna get killed.
00:18:03
They are going to get killed by Baltimore.
00:18:05
You could pretty much lock that in.
00:18:07
Um, next, we have a game that has really been kind of difficult for me.
00:18:13
I've been staring at all week long.
00:18:15
I don't know what to do with it.
00:18:16
I don't want to totally avoid it.
00:18:17
I kind of like the Lions in this situation.
00:18:20
Although, um, you know, the states just have such a dominant running game and I can never trust the Lions.
00:18:29
Of course.
00:18:30
Saints Saints Lions Game is what we're talking about.
00:18:33
Minus three point favorites are the Saints total is sitting at 54 which is just seems to be a very popular number this week.
00:18:41
Got a lot of games between 54 56 on the slate New Orleans favored by three over the Detroit Lions.
00:18:50
I just don't know what to do with this game.
00:18:52
What do you think? What are you on this game? This is one of my favorite picks of the week.
00:18:58
I am Ride or die with the Detroit Lions and I may very well die by them this season.
00:19:03
But they came through for me last week.
00:19:05
I'm going back to the gun.
00:19:06
I like the Lions still catching a field goal here.
00:19:09
It was better here, a different points throughout the week when it was higher.
00:19:13
It opened four out in Vegas, it's been I've seen 4.5.
00:19:17
I've seen some fives throughout the week.
00:19:19
I believe I like this in at 4.5.
00:19:23
It would have been yesterday, I think.
00:19:25
Andi, today this line has seen movement down from 4 to 3.
00:19:28
5 and now even field goals across the board.
00:19:31
Uh, I think you're gonna have offense in this game.
00:19:34
I don't trust I can't trust Detroit's defense, but I also don't trust the New Orleans defense.
00:19:40
They looked a little shaky here against both Las Vegas Raiders and the Packers.
00:19:46
Just let him up last week s.
00:19:47
So there's some issues on the defensive side of the ball from New Orleans.
00:19:51
Ah, out generous.
00:19:56
Jenkins is also out.
00:19:59
Then we go to the offense.
00:20:00
Michael Thomas.
00:20:01
He's once again not going to be playing for the States.
00:20:05
There are so many injuries on both sides of the ball for New Orleans, that's not even all of them.
00:20:09
Uh, if I pull up their injury report here, I can give you a better look.
00:20:16
Eso Jenkins Lattimore Marcus Davenport, defensive lineman.
00:20:20
He did not practice.
00:20:22
He's out for a week For Jared Cook.
00:20:24
The tight end is banged up, Um, and then another defensive lineman, Noah Spence.
00:20:29
He looks to be active in this game, but those were just key losses in the secondary that plays right into what the lines wanna do offensively, which is throw.
00:20:36
Kenny Golladay is only going to continue to be better here.
00:20:39
Uh, he gets back into the swing of things.
00:20:42
This will be his second game back for Detroit.
00:20:46
I like the Lions here at home.
00:20:48
Both teams were one and two.
00:20:49
Both teams really need this game.
00:20:51
I like to try a lot.
00:20:54
I was on them coming into the year as we all know.
00:20:57
It didn't work out for me a couple weeks ago in screen Day.
00:21:00
Uh, really, though, if we're being honest, the line should be two in one.
00:21:04
It shouldn't have lost Week one to Chicago.
00:21:07
And I thought last week, going on the road and earning a win against the undefeated Arizona team and a defense that was forcing Kyler Murray into mistakes.
00:21:14
Zach and I on the show last week.
00:21:16
We just are.
00:21:17
One issue with Detroit in that game was How are they gonna be able to slow down this offense? Force three interceptions? And that's how you slow him down.
00:21:25
They thoroughly played Arizona.
00:21:27
They should one by MAWR classic line special to take it down to a field goal there at the end.
00:21:32
But I like the Lions catching the points here in this one.
00:21:35
I could see a game where the Saints win by a field goal, so even at the even three, it's still a play for me.
00:21:41
Uh, you know, it was better earlier in the week.
00:21:44
I might even Sprinkle money line to on Detroit.
00:21:47
I haven't ruled that out of the equation, although I haven't done it yet.
00:21:50
Still wishy washy.
00:21:51
There I mean, I've got I've got no arguments.
00:21:55
Like I said, I didn't really know how to read this game.
00:21:58
I, of course, like the fact that the lions have Kenny Golladay.
00:22:01
Well, the Saints don't have Michael Thomas.
00:22:04
Um so I like that for the Lions would have been more comfortable if I could get him at 4.5.
00:22:09
I think I might just avoid the line of three.
00:22:12
Although I think if anything, I think you're right.
00:22:14
I think the Lions probably were slightly better than they looked in the first couple weeks because they were without Golladay and because they were living through that stench of that Bears come back.
00:22:25
You know, that's gonna hang over you for a few weeks.
00:22:27
I think the Lions maybe are better than what they've looked early on.
00:22:33
They beat the Cardinals.
00:22:34
The Cardinals are not a team to sneeze at, so I don't mind the Lions in this in this spot either, although I'm not big, um, not big on this game, but also I probably will not be betting this game.
00:22:44
So Henry says the lions, I implore you all thio believe Henry and take the lion's um, so, yeah, I guess where I'm the Lions this game, it is worth noting the Detroit secondary is kind of banged up to, But when the Saints don't have Michael Thomas, I mean, who are we seriously worried about here, Emmanuel Sanders? And I guess trick Juan Smith has been kind of the more popular pickup in terms of fantasy football.
00:23:08
Just because of seeming to have a mortar stable floor in Thomas's absence.
00:23:14
I'm not convinced either one of them is a really threat to what Detroit is gonna be able to do in terms of their own offensive attack.
00:23:22
Eso Yeah, I'm pretty much all in on this one.
00:23:26
It's one of my favorites here of the week and thank you to act Ventura and by bike y for the we're catching the re stream.
00:23:41
However you take in the content here, we appreciate it.
00:23:44
We're here doing it for you because obviously, um, we all make our own bets and everything in our own time, so we're going to make our bets either way.
00:23:52
But we want to share this information to help everybody makes some money and, uh, appreciate everybody that checks out our content and especially goes out of their way and tips us.
00:24:03
We appreciate you all.
00:24:04
So thank you.
00:24:05
Bye bye.
00:24:06
Kuai and act Ventura moving on now to another bet that I actually do have an opinion on this time around.
00:24:13
It is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs the L. A. Chargers.
00:24:16
Uh, total of 42 a half.
00:24:20
That's another sneaky total that I think the Chargers may just have trouble scoring, so you might have trouble hitting that over unless the Bucks really explode.
00:24:27
But the Bucks minus seven, is a comfortable bet for me this week because the Bucks have been averaging, I think, like 24 points somewhere in, uh in that area.
00:24:38
Well, the the Chargers have been averaging, like 17 points.
00:24:43
They scored 16 2 different times in Week one and Week three.
00:24:47
And then, of course, they scored 20 in their week to match up against Kansas City, which was probably their best play a game of the year.
00:24:55
Other than that, though, they've been held to 16 points twice.
00:24:59
Um, I think obviously Chris Godwin is out.
00:25:02
I think that could affect the Buccaneers on offense a little bit, but I also really like this Buccaneers defense.
00:25:08
I think they're gonna be able to hold the Chargers in.
00:25:10
Check a zoo.
00:25:12
We know Justin Herbert will be getting his third start in a row.
00:25:14
Tyrod Taylor still out because of that lung.
00:25:19
The beginning is lung punctured.
00:25:20
Ah, couple weeks back, minus seven.
00:25:23
Is ah, comfortable bet for me.
00:25:25
I would think that this line should be up in, like, the 88.
00:25:29
5 type range.
00:25:30
But it is at seven.
00:25:32
I like seven for the Buccaneers.
00:25:34
How do you feel? Well, I'm going to start with the total I think for this game.
00:25:40
Eso out in Las Vegas.
00:25:41
This is again reemphasizing the point of you wanna be, make sure you shop around to find the best line for how you're planning to attack a game based on your handicap.
00:25:51
There's totals ranging a full point here.
00:25:53
We got 42 42 a half at most books, but then there's also a 43 s o that one point.
00:26:00
You know, it's crazy to say that, but you want to get that one extra point depending on which side you're on for me.
00:26:06
I don't really have a play on the total, but I completely agree with you here.
00:26:09
This is gonna be a low scoring game.
00:26:11
Might be one of the lowest scoring of the week.
00:26:13
I don't really see either offense doing a whole lot, and it's basically because both defense's are really, really good.
00:26:20
Todd Bowles has Tampa Bay's defense just playing lights out Football here through the first two weeks adjusted.
00:26:26
I believe they were number two overall top five, both individually against the run and the past and the charges.
00:26:32
Not too bad, either.
00:26:33
And you look at some of the matchups that they've had, namely Kansas City, but also Carolina's offense.
00:26:38
Uh, not bad.
00:26:40
You know, Matt Rule bringing his system here to the NFL level on their hovering, I believe just outside the top 10 adjusted eso not having Melvin Ingram.
00:26:50
That's a concern for the Chargers.
00:26:51
But I think this game is gonna be low scoring because when you look at Tampa Bay on offense, Jake mentioned Chris Godwin industry.
00:26:58
There's no Leonard Burnett for this game.
00:26:59
That's gonna be a bigger role for Ronald Jones, who you know, mixed feelings about him.
00:27:03
I don't like him as a running back s So I think that is that hurts the Tampa Bay rushing attack.
00:27:10
S o e.
00:27:11
Think both offenses.
00:27:12
They're definitely gonna struggle in this game looking at the Chargers offense as far as injuries.
00:27:17
The offensive line, it's it's really, uh, it's really becoming almost a mirror image of last year.
00:27:25
Mike Constant, the center.
00:27:26
We already know he's out for the year, but significant injury concerns here coming into the weekend, I don't know the updated status exactly on these guys.
00:27:35
I can try and find it as we go along.
00:27:36
But Bryan Bulaga the tackle.
00:27:39
Storm Norton, the backup tackle and trade turner, the Guard are all dealing with injuries.
00:27:44
Uh, all were questionable.
00:27:45
He's coming into the day.
00:27:46
Thio even suit up this week, and none of them practiced on Friday.
00:27:50
That's usually not a good sign.
00:27:52
So no Tyrod Taylor, Obviously, Justin Herbert.
00:27:55
He might be really in a lot of trouble back there in the pocket, giving how good this Tampa defense is.
00:28:05
Those offensive line is shaping up to be with that, said the low total.
00:28:11
I'm projecting a defensive game here and you're giving me a spread of seven.
00:28:15
I've even seen 7.
00:28:16
5 still lingering around offshore here today.
00:28:19
All right, I like the chargers.
00:28:21
If you're giving me the spread.
00:28:23
I wrote an article in this game.
00:28:24
It's alright.
00:28:25
Flurry sports that order.
00:28:26
Be sure to go check that out if you want a more in depth breakdown.
00:28:29
Uh, it's just too much, I think for me toe lay a touchdown in a game where I really if I'm betting the total, I wanna bet this total under s.
00:28:39
So I think that the charges at seven or if you can still get a 7.5.
00:28:43
I know that line was moving down, back to and even touched down, uh, throughout the day here at my board, right now in Vegas, So I would expect it to move that direction elsewhere.
00:28:56
But I'll take the full touch down here, and, uh, you know, this is gonna be an ugly offensive football game.
00:29:02
What can I say? But I think because of that, I like l a toe kind of maintain striking distance in this one.
00:29:11
And Justin Herbert is getting, you know, incredibly value time, right? Incredibly valuable starting time right now.
00:29:19
Every week that goes by, you know, even though they're not exploding on offense.
00:29:23
I just think every week that goes by, it's gonna be harder and harder and harder to go back to Taylor.
00:29:27
And again.
00:29:28
We've talked about this ad nauseum in previous streams, but I think Taylor again because of Ah, very miss Unfortunate, um, mishandling of a situation here.
00:29:40
I'm now going to be run out of another job, as I think.
00:29:43
This is Justin Herberts team moving forward.
00:29:45
I just like I like the Bucks in this spot, uh, Browns versus Cowboys.
00:29:53
There's another game that I've been kind of struggling with, which is a common theme for me across this week for Slate.
00:29:58
I've been pretty confident in a number of games in the previous three weeks, and there's just a lot of games this week that make me a nisi.
00:30:05
Uh, at first I would like to say the Cowboys, we're gonna cover four.
00:30:10
But then start to think a little bit about how the Cowboys have struggled mightily.
00:30:17
Um, in the early portions of games here, uh, might be a closer game than than the four point spread.
00:30:25
Brown's might even win this game outright, depending on how the Cowboys play.
00:30:29
I just don't I don't know what to do.
00:30:31
I miss one either.
00:30:32
So I'm glad I'm hosting tonight because I'm able to defer to you.
00:30:36
Uh, more often.
00:30:37
We've got the Cowboys favored by four points with a total of 56.
00:30:42
Where you got for this game? I'm shocked, Jake.
00:30:45
You're having trouble supporting your Uncle Mike here in this key that they haven't.
00:30:50
They haven't made it easy.
00:30:51
They have not made it easy, I'll tell you that. Yeah.
00:30:54
You know, what hasn't made it easy is the Dallas defense.
00:30:56
They have not looked good here these first few weeks for any.
00:31:00
They've been going enough against them. Good offenses.
00:31:02
The Rams, the Seahawks, the Falcons Even that's a good offense.
00:31:07
As bad as that team has been here.
00:31:08
And it's frustrating for us betters as they have been here, Um, these first few weeks.
00:31:13
But, you know, the Cleveland offenses talented, and I think the weakness of the Cowboys defense is the secondary.
00:31:22
So I'll be curious to see how much that might change the Browns thinking offensively whether they'll let Baker Mayfield air it out a little more Or if they're just going to stick with this nasty running back tandem of Chubb and Kareem Hunt out of the backfield, that's enough to wear down.
00:31:37
Even I think the best run defense is in this league.
00:31:39
So no matter how you slice it, I think Cleveland will be able to move the football.
00:31:44
Uh, with that said, the Brown secondary is also not too inspiring totals at 56 across the board out in Las Vegas as we speak and I think it's justified.
00:31:56
This is gonna be another shootout.
00:31:57
And, you know, we've seen offensive records be smashed left and right here these first three weeks.
00:32:02
We even saw a Broncos Jets game sale over the total on Thursday.
00:32:08
I think it's just gonna continue with a lot of these games, and we're seeing, uh, you know, it's funny.
00:32:13
We're seeing the books at their lines, like you wouldn't be saying that about a week at all last year, you know, maybe if you were lucky and all the matchups just kind of fell that way.
00:32:36
But these air, it's an extreme, you know, the books are going to get hammered on over bets forever, and that's what the public loves to play is over that eso we're going to see maybe some or unders, I think coming this week ast faras this one.
00:32:49
I don't really have a play on that total.
00:32:51
I I kind of want to play it under, but I can't do it.
00:32:55
ISAF are as the line.
00:32:58
I'm the person who's tend Thio, inclined to believe that Dallas is a little overvalued every single week, just based on public perception.
00:33:08
And so that kind of makes me want a piece of the Browns here, especially at 4 3.5.
00:33:13
So we're seeing now.
00:33:14
So we're seeing a little bit of a move here on the market toward Cleveland, and that makes me kind of feel like that might be the right side in this one.
00:33:21
It's just gonna be a back and forth game.
00:33:24
I could see it easily coming down to a field goal.
00:33:26
If I'm doing anything, it's the Browns.
00:33:28
3.5 or better.
00:33:30
Uh, but no, no strong feeling on this one either.
00:33:34
I guess I'll side with you there.
00:33:37
Yeah, and I think you know, it's just interesting because the number one thing that people were saying early on in the season was, Oh, you know, I'm betting the unders or I'm putting more you know, I'm taking the defense's over the offense because no, not much, really practice time, no preseason stuff like that across the board.
00:33:58
So So I think, too, that the bookies are like they know that people love.
00:34:03
They love to bet the over public loves to bet over.
00:34:05
So if you could inflate these, if you inflate these numbers a little bit, you're still going to get an influx of money on the overs, even though you're inflating the lines a little bit.
00:34:14
And then chances are, you know more.
00:34:16
More often than not, that's gonna be a good day for you as the bookie when you can inflated by a few points when and you know you're still going to get a mass influx of bets on the over, so I don't know, maybe that's kind of what we're seeing this week.
00:34:27
Or maybe it is just that offenses are just absolutely hammering.
00:34:31
These defense is even the best defense is, and the lines have moved accordingly.
00:34:36
Um, could be a little bit of both.
00:34:37
Obviously, book is always trying to make themselves a few extra books.
00:34:41
I think it is both.
00:34:42
I like what you're the the Quite a lot.
00:34:48
Actually, I think you're seeing higher totals this week because the books got to do something right, like we can't keep losing money.
00:34:55
They're in this to win, probably even more so than most bettors are.
00:35:00
But at the same time, the offenses are to me, at least just from the and looking at the box scores.
00:35:10
The offenses are a step ahead of the defense's.
00:35:11
And, you know, I was having a conversation with somebody today, just like why that might be.
00:35:15
And I was one of those people coming into the season.
00:35:17
I was kind of wondering, you know, our defense is gonna be even further ahead here to start a season than they typically hard.
00:35:24
You know, a normal NFL season.
00:35:26
You're probably going to see your lowest scoring games early on, and then maybe at the end, you know, depending on injuries and such with quarterback play and, uh, like down the stretch of the season.
00:35:37
But usually the offenses air take a little bit of time to warm up, and that's not the case at all this year, and I think for me it comes down to the different preseason and training camp that Waas, like you said, You you have to get on the field in practice tackling.
00:35:53
There's just been so much terrible tackling these first few weeks in these Games that that I've watched and I'm sure I'm sure if you've watched the NFL game, you've seen some poor tackling your these first few weeks.
00:36:07
What's happening? Left and right offensively, you would think that you need to be on the field to practice plays and such.
00:36:15
I feel almost feel like I'm having a change of thought.
00:36:17
And maybe I could scheme up a play better over a zoom meeting and I could send.
00:36:21
You know, we could look at these different things and then go out and execute them.
00:36:25
And when the tackling technique is just not there like it typically would be coming into a year, that's the best explanation I have for it right now.
00:36:35
To be honest with you.
00:36:36
Uh, it's crazy, though, be the offense we've seen and that's why I think to me a game like this, where everything we've seen the first few weeks.
00:36:45
Bad defense is on both sides, offenses with plenty of talent on both sides.
00:36:49
It makes you think it should go over this line.
00:36:52
I hardly ever you wanna play a total of 56 or better or higher, I should say, not better.
00:37:00
Hire.
00:37:01
I hardly ever wanna play that over and I don't wanna play this one over.
00:37:04
I got it.
00:37:05
I feel like it should go over based on the eye test.
00:37:08
But this line, at this point, the books have caught up.
00:37:11
And so that's why if if I were to do anything with that total, it be under.
00:37:15
So that's that's one where I just kind of I'm curious to see how this game plays on.
00:37:19
And a lot of these games with these high totals like that this week.
00:37:23
Yeah, I mean, that is such a high number.
00:37:25
It's like, you know, you could have you could have a game that's like, let's see if I could do my quick, quick math like 31 to 24 which is still a pretty decently high scoring game, and that that would still hit the under, I believe, right, so that's how high this line is exactly.
00:37:39
So that's that's a bit scary.
00:37:41
Um, it'll be interesting.
00:37:43
It's a C.
00:37:45
What actually ends up happening as far as public money when when the game kicks off.
00:37:49
But like we've said, people love their overs.
00:37:52
Um, many people, especially not sharp betters, um, aren't aren't gonna be scared.
00:37:57
A lot of people like to see a I'm gonna go, like, you know, like maybe if this line was only like, 49 or something, they'd be like, Why is the line so low? That's weird.
00:38:09
But like 56 they're like, Yeah, hammer it.
00:38:11
It's gonna be a shootout blah, blah blah.
00:38:12
So it's like, I don't know, there's so many different thought processes, processes that go into this, especially for the casual better, which again you have to always remember, like when you're talking data ****ysis and sharp betting and everything.
00:38:25
Ah, majority of money comes in on people that are just betting on a whim, just betting because they think they know something or betting because they're a fan of the team or whatever.
00:38:33
So that's always the thing to remember with gambling, like there is your sharp money there is your sharp ****ysis and stuff.
00:38:39
But then a majority of it is just people throwing money at the wall.
00:38:42
So overs and lines and totals like I felt like an idiot for not taking the over on Thursday, like 41 with I don't care if, like how bad the quarterbacks are.
00:38:57
Whatever.
00:38:58
Like points, it's still the NFL.
00:38:59
It's not like they're going to go out like and it's not gonna be 10 to 6 or 13 to 10 like it's very rare to get a game like that unless it's an actual, you know, um, high level competitive defensive game, which is just not what we were going to get on Thursday.
00:39:15
So, man, like you said that that totals flew over.
00:39:18
I felt like an idiot.
00:39:19
Like, How do you not take the over on the 41 line between the teams like that? Man, I just I don't know. I felt dumb.
00:39:26
I was on the wrong side Thursday and I really don't want to get into it.
00:39:29
Yeah, wrong side waas.
00:39:31
And that was my jet, so Yeah, Well, yeah, I mean, and the Jets.
00:39:37
Yeah, that's too. Oh, boy.
00:39:40
Let's just skip over them.
00:39:41
But you have to be.
00:39:43
You have to beat the Broncos in that spot.
00:39:44
You have to, and yet they were not able to.
00:39:48
But we will continue moving forward.
00:39:50
Uh, talking about the Arizona Cardinals in the Carolina Panthers.
00:39:54
This is another game that I mean, not thio.
00:40:01
Uh, thought out ****ysis Here.
00:40:03
It's just simply I like the Cardinals offense against the Panthers Defense.
00:40:11
Panthers offensive.
00:40:14
Ah, pretty good offense against the bad defense versus a pretty good defense against a very average offense.
00:40:20
Uh oh, you're only needing to cover by a field goal if you're Arizona.
00:40:25
I think not that they got embarrassed by the Lions because it wasn't, You know, it was a close, close game the whole time, but I think that they have a bit of a bounce back week.
00:40:34
I think that the Panthers are slightly overrated right now just because they have been able to stay in games.
00:40:39
But again, we came in.
00:40:41
Don't forget, we came into this season talking about how the Panthers are going to be one of the worst teams in the league are gonna be in the running for Trevor Lawrence like don't forget who the Panthers actually are at the end of the day s o I like the Arizona Cardinals minus three here, uh, total that I've got on draftkings as 51 a half.
00:41:01
Yeah, different once a lot of 50 ones and a half and a couple 52.
00:41:09
Uh, this one open 3.
00:41:10
5.
00:41:11
And like Jake said, it isn't even feel terrible right now.
00:41:14
I don't have a play on this game.
00:41:15
Uh, to your point, though, saying Carolina's overrated.
00:41:18
I think Arizona is still overrated right now in terms of the betting market of public perception.
00:41:25
You know, last week I saw it coming.
00:41:28
I don't know, and I don't like to toot my own horn, and I'm by no means trying to do that here.
00:41:34
It just felt like the classic spot.
00:41:36
And I didn't see three picks from Kyler Murray coming, and I don't think that will happen again.
00:41:41
Aziz, that is the Lions defense is I think the Panthers defense is somehow worse.
00:41:46
Uh, but, you know, Arizona is gonna be one of those teams where they have a couple of nice winds.
00:41:54
Everybody gets excited.
00:41:56
And then last week, a game that they're favored.
00:41:58
By what? That line close.
00:41:59
Probably around 5 5.
00:42:00
5, I think. Right.
00:42:02
5 5.
00:42:03
5 is Yeah, yeah, and they go out and lose it outright.
00:42:06
So, uh, coming west to east.
00:42:09
I can't back the cardinals here.
00:42:11
That's a That's a long road trip.
00:42:15
This is a home game for them.
00:42:16
Eso I'm scared off of the spread looking at the total.
00:42:22
You know, again it feels like it should go over, and I almost want to play it under what we thought of Carolina last week.
00:42:28
I know the Chargers air not quite as explosive oven offense as Arizona.
00:42:33
Is the defense out of their own? Uh, not too bad.
00:42:38
Arizona's got a lot of injuries in the secondary.
00:42:41
That's gonna be something to keep a nigh on here going into this week's game, Uh, I think Teddy Bridgewater and company should be able to move the ball against them.
00:42:53
And that's something that worries me if I'm a Cardinals backer or an under backer, because I think the Cardinals should be able to put up points as well.
00:43:01
Uh, Jake, do you have anything else on this? There's one other name.
00:43:04
I wanna look up and just make sure I get his story right here for this morning.
00:43:08
Yeah, I just think the other thing that you should consider, especially if you're thinking about about the over because I kind of like the under here, too, is that I think the Cardinals, they're going to score points.
00:43:18
But the Panthers have had trouble the last two weeks scoring points, and it's because they played good defense is in Week one.
00:43:25
They played against the Raiders, who have a trash defense.
00:43:28
Andi, Obviously, they had Christian McCaffrey in Week one as well.
00:43:31
They were able to put 30 points on the board the last two weeks without Christian McCaffrey and against good offenses.
00:43:37
They scored 70.
00:43:38
Excuse me against good defense is they scored 17 against the Buccaneers and just 16 against the Chargers.
00:43:43
The Cardinals have a good defense.
00:43:45
Uh, maybe not as good as the Buccaneers.
00:43:47
Probably on par with the Chargers, with all the injuries that the Chargers have right now.
00:43:52
But I just don't see a lot of points, E.
00:43:55
I mean, if you get to 20 points this weekend as the Panthers, you're doing pretty good, Andi.
00:44:00
I think the Cardinals were going to be able to put out more than that.
00:44:02
Obviously, I think that the letdown game came for the chart for the Cardinals last week against a team in the Lions who is better than the Panthers.
00:44:11
So I don't really see to let down weeks coming like that again, within.
00:44:24
Doable for the Cardinals here, who again? I think they had their letdown game last weekend against a little bit better team in the lion's.
00:44:29
I don't think Panthers really are gonna be able to do too much on offense against the Cardinals, so I think if the Cardinals score, UH, 24 points arm or in this game, but I think they win and cover both.
00:44:42
So a couple of things I'll throw counter arguments this point.
00:44:48
Arizona's defense, like you said they are and adjusted efficiency right now through the first three weeks, solid against both the run and the past.
00:45:05
The big thing I wanna look at here, though, and you let me know if this impacts your decision any Christian Kirk missed last week.
00:45:16
I do believe I have that right and he's a game time decision again this week.
00:45:21
The other Cardinals receiver is a game time decision.
00:45:23
Is DeAndre Hopkins on? That would be a bigness if he's unable to go.
00:45:28
It's an ankle injury for Hopkins.
00:45:32
Let's see here, looking at practice reports throughout the week, he was not at the open portion for media availability.
00:45:45
Um, if there is no DeAndre Hopkins, that definitely has to throw Wrinkle into Arizona is looking to do offensively here.
00:45:54
And, you know, like I said, that banged up secondary.
00:45:57
I don't have the exact names and who is hurt right now I could try and find those.
00:46:01
Um, there's just too much going on here, injury wise and especially if Hopkins is out, I don't wanna have.
00:46:09
I guess I'll say I don't wanna have money on the Cardinals and come to regret that is how I'm approaching this game.
00:46:16
So it's a path for me.
00:46:18
Um, but, uh, well, I guess, Let me ask you a question.
00:46:22
What would Hopkins being out of this game? What would that do to you if you already had a Cardinals bet? Or let's say it's an hour before kickoff.
00:46:31
DeAndre Hopkins is out.
00:46:33
How are you approaching this line.
00:46:35
Assuming it stays at three, I'd probably just be off the game then.
00:46:39
I mean, down for happens is a difference maker.
00:46:41
It's especially without Kirk out there.
00:46:43
I mean, he is, um, the high light of this Cardinals offense right now.
00:46:48
Obviously, you could argue Kyler Murray, but DeAndre Hopkins didn't go out and throw three interceptions last week.
00:46:53
So I would say, DeAndre Hopkins is probably the pivotal point of this office.
00:47:01
No, I don't I don't like this bet.
00:47:02
I'm not locked into a bet with the Cardinals right now.
00:47:05
Um, so I think if you are interested in betting this game, which I am, a long as those guys are ready to g o, I'd say Wait all the way up until 10 minutes to kick off the lock in your bet.
00:47:16
Then, once you know who's playing and who's not.
00:47:19
And if if there's no Deandra happens, take that 10 bucks or whatever your unit is, and put it elsewhere, or just or just save it.
00:47:27
You know, I think Deandra have.
00:47:28
I think, a bet on the Cardinals without DeAndre Hopkins is slight, slightly foolish, no matter who they're playing against.
00:47:33
But I think DeAndre Hopkins.
00:47:35
We'll find a way to G o.
00:47:36
Um I mean, you don't want start off, too, and, Oh, and be one of the hot teams everybody's talking about.
00:47:43
And then just all of a sudden, a couple weeks later, you're two and two because your best player couldn't couldn't make the make it onto the field.
00:47:50
I think Hopkins gonna find a way to push through and play how impactful he will be.
00:47:55
You know, I guess that's that's to be seen.
00:47:57
But just having him out on the field, he's just one of those guys, you know, having him out on the field, Having him dressed up just does, uh, does immensely mawr for your team.
00:48:07
It takes away your top coverage by the defense, all that kind of stuff.
00:48:11
So Hopkins is the difference maker here.
00:48:13
I will give you that.
00:48:16
Yeah, I guess it's just concerning for May, and obviously we hope everyone can play through injuries and be out there if they were able to.
00:48:23
He didn't practice all week, though, Uh, Larry, for sure.
00:48:29
There was a full practice Friday, popped up on the injury report, though, and then Kirk was limited Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
00:48:36
I don't know it.
00:48:37
Za tough called determine whether he'll be out there and then as far as the Cardinals secondary, Drakkar Patrick, no practice Friday.
00:48:45
He's questionable.
00:48:46
And then, UH, two safeties Buddha Baker and Chris Van Joe both did not practice all week and are both already ruled out for this game.
00:48:56
That's concerning.
00:48:57
And I know they're Carolina's offense.
00:49:01
It's it's first year here with that rule.
00:49:04
There's a lot of moving parts.
00:49:05
Christian McCaffrey's not there.
00:49:06
I think Mike Davis has stepped in and really done well for him.
00:49:09
I'm not necessarily concerning there, but when you have field stretcher like Robby Anderson, you got a guy who can basically run fourth till down the field or work across the middle wide receiver.
00:49:24
I think the Panthers going to get there is in this game, Uh, and I think you know, it's It's been minimal line movement on Carolina, down from 3.
00:49:32
5, opening to three now across the board.
00:49:36
But and it's this one's this one's Skerry.
00:49:40
Given the injury concerns.
00:49:42
I think for Arizona, so definitely I think we're in agreement.
00:49:46
If you are interested in betting this game.
00:49:48
Wait until closer to kick off.
00:49:50
No reason to gambling is the definition of gambling.
00:49:57
If you do lock in a bet on the Cardinals here tonight, just wait so closer to kick off time when you have more information and your money will be better off moving on to.
00:50:10
Aziz were still got two games to go in the noon slate and before we move into the afternoon.
00:50:17
But it's the Vikings versus the Houston Texans.
00:50:22
I think I'm going to go against my word.
00:50:25
I think I'm gonna go against myself and actually bet on the Texans this game.
00:50:29
Um, I think the Texans off fence is set up.
00:50:33
Thio, expose this Vikings defense.
00:50:36
I just I mean, we've seen how bad the Vikings defense Viking secondary in general has been.
00:50:42
Um, actually, I like Randall Cobb is a flex play this week.
00:50:46
Uh, quite a bit, actually.
00:50:48
A Randall Cobb has 154 yards, nine catches and a touchdown across the last two weeks.
00:50:55
Um, so that's just something that to keep in mind I don't like the Vikings.
00:51:01
I think they're extremely overrated.
00:51:02
I think they're probably now with Nick Foles, probably the worst team in the NFC North, especially with the Lions looking like they have the ability to surge a little bit now.
00:51:13
3.
00:51:14
5 points would like it better if it was three, but I don't I think it's gonna end up being that close of a game anyhow, unless the Vikings actually can click offensively because I'm not a big fan of the Houston Texans defense.
00:51:26
I'm just not anybody that has, you know, watched any of our content or listen to me knows I'm not a fan of the Texans across the board, but I think this is just, ah, a situational.
00:51:36
But for me, I like them in this spot against the Vikings.
00:51:38
So give me some of that minus 3.
00:51:40
5 for the Houston Texans, another high total 53 a half on this game.
00:51:47
I'm completely in agreement.
00:51:48
I did an article on this game as well.
00:51:50
You can check out over a flurry sports that organ and the pick, uh, to round out that article.
00:51:54
Spoiler alert Texans minus 3.5.
00:51:57
I like Houston a lot in this game.
00:51:59
Both teams aero in three.
00:52:00
Both teams are obviously desperate for a win.
00:52:03
The Vikings have shown me nothing.
00:52:05
Thio make me feel confident in backing them.
00:52:07
Other than Thea offense actually came to play last week, and I think that Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson Connection.
00:52:13
That's gonna be something to watch.
00:52:15
And also a key for Minnesota here, even beyond this year.
00:52:19
Uh, you know, if this team climbs back into more of a contender level status, trading away digs.
00:52:27
Jefferson was the first round pick, the guy who was supposed to come in and fill that role.
00:52:30
So last week, that was definitely encouraging.
00:52:33
If you are a Vikings backer, I think Jefferson's legit.
00:52:37
I like I like him a lot.
00:52:38
I think he's a good and he's really good, good young player.
00:52:41
Yeah, 100%.
00:52:42
You get the assets for digs.
00:52:44
I mean, I think you know, long as Jefferson pans out, I think that was all around for what shall issue as well, getting back to this game.
00:52:57
The line opened it four out in Vegas and it actually saw different movement throughout the week.
00:53:03
It jumped up.
00:53:04
I believe Houston got up to his high.
00:53:07
I want to say it's 5.
00:53:08
5, maybe even six early on in the week, and it's been just kind of trending back down.
00:53:14
Sent fours.
00:53:16
So we're back to the opening line.
00:53:18
Fours and a few 3.
00:53:19
5 out on the Las Vegas market for this game.
00:53:25
I, you know, with line movement going back in favor of the Vikings.
00:53:30
Uh, how concerning is that? I guess for me, it's just not.
00:53:35
I think the Shawn Watson is gonna have a field day with this secondary.
00:53:41
David Johnson been getting good run.
00:53:42
Duke Johnson might even be back for this game.
00:53:44
How big of a role play, but it's just another pass catcher there.
00:53:49
We've seen the Texans.
00:53:50
They're starred for someone to kind of step up and really take over a bigger role with, uh, the aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins No longer in this offense, it just hasn't happened yet.
00:54:02
Uh, those were interesting stats you throughout on Randall Cobb will be excited to see how he does this game.
00:54:07
I'm not dead.
00:54:09
I'm not off Will Fuller entirely just yet.
00:54:13
Speaking of Will Fuller in that article I wrote on this game of Fleury Sports, or GTA, hold up a ****** knife fight prop for this game.
00:54:26
And I'm going to give this to you, Jake, and we'll see where you're coming in on this s o.
00:54:31
You have to pick all four.
00:54:32
Correct.
00:54:33
It's more or less. And they're all player yardage totals.
00:54:35
Okay, if you do pick four out of four, correct over a ****** knife fight on this prop, you're gonna win eight times you're buying, so there's high stakes here.
00:54:44
And remember, if you sign up with ****** knife fight and use the promo code flurry, you get a matching $50 up to matching deposit up to $50.
00:54:57
There we owe and $53 just for signing up.
00:55:00
So if you sign up, you deposit 50 bucks, you're gonna have $105 to play within your account.
00:55:06
That's right.
00:55:07
Thank you, Jake. You're saving me butchering the promo.
00:55:09
But anyway, so if we go in and I'm not suggesting you put all of your free $50 on this one drop, you'll probably want to play it in other areas as well.
00:55:19
But we have the Shawn Watson over under 285 and a half passing yards.
00:55:25
We've got Kurt Cousins over under 263 and a half.
00:55:28
Passing yards will follow her over unders 72 a half receiving yards and Dalvin cook over under 80.
00:55:36
5 rushing yards.
00:55:38
Jake, I know you touched on the secondary is both being bad in this game.
00:55:41
I agree.
00:55:42
I was deflated to see Houston did not sign Earl Thomas this week over concerns about what he would do to the locker room.
00:55:49
Which when your secondary is that bad, I don't know if I agree with that decision.
00:55:54
But anyway, where do you stand on this ****** knife fight? Problem? Um, well, without looking into it too deeply, I think I would dio I think I would go over on everything except for Kirk Cousin passing Kirk cousins passing yards.
00:56:14
I think I might go.
00:56:15
Wait, What's the number on cousins again? Passing yards.
00:56:18
Let me get that for you.
00:56:19
2 to 60.5.
00:56:23
Sure. Yeah, I'll go under.
00:56:25
Kirk Cousins so far has 623 total passing yards across three games, so he's averaging 207 So you you've got a you know, about a 50 yard cushion there, and I, of course I do like to have, you know, I do like to have uncooked Thio have played a huge part in this game, but I'll say under on Kirk Cousins over on their other three.
00:56:50
That's without any deep ****ysis.
00:56:53
I guess that's probably where I would go.
00:56:55
And that is exactly how I broke that prop down.
00:56:59
I believe in the article, uh, to your point about Kirk Cousins, um, and the average.
00:57:06
And you kind of did quick math there that I could do my head.
00:57:08
But yeah, he has yet to throw for that yardage amount in any game this season.
00:57:12
And just looking at last week, you know, put up 30 points and he had the big day.
00:57:17
Justin Jefferson had what 100 35 yards receiving still did not hit that number.
00:57:21
So as bad as this Houston secondary is, I think think the Texans might be able to generate some pass rush up front.
00:57:29
Eso Yeah, I was over on the three out of the four, and way basically saw that the same way I will try and pull up that referral link.
00:57:37
Four ****** knife fight on.
00:57:40
Believe that in the chat here as Jake goes on to the next game.
00:57:44
Yeah, ****** knife fight.
00:57:46
If you haven't heard of it, go check it out.
00:57:47
We can promote all we want, but until you just kind of go scan through their website and see how awesome, uh, their platform is.
00:57:54
You're not going to really get the full scope of what ****** night flight has to offer.
00:57:57
So go check it out.
00:57:58
If you sign up, make sure you use promo code.
00:58:09
It is the Jacksonville Jaguars versus Cincinnati Bangles.
00:58:12
I'm actually really looking forward to watching this game.
00:58:15
I believe the line has moved, um, towards Jacksonville a little bit.
00:58:20
I think the Bengals at one point and Henry will have this information for sure.
00:58:24
But I think the Bengals openness three point favorites there now.
00:58:27
2.5 point favorites.
00:58:29
The total is 49.
00:58:31
This total scares me because, really, I mean both both of these offenses could be, I don't know.
00:58:38
They're just unpredictable for me at this point.
00:58:40
With two very young quarterbacks under center, I think it'll be a fun game to watch overall, and I think the Bengals are primed to get their first win here 2.5.
00:58:51
So inside of a field goal, I'll take the Bengals.
00:58:54
Just, um, just because I think they're gonna win the game and there's more value with the 2.
00:59:00
5 than there is with the minus 1 30 on the money line.
00:59:04
S o.
00:59:05
I would ruin Bangles here, even though I don't really have a strong lean either way.
00:59:09
What do you got on this game, Henry? Man, this is a classic case of a team being overvalued based on what they did the first two weeks, right, The Jaguars air field goal favorites against Miami at home Thursday Night Football.
00:59:22
They get smacked, and now they turn around and go back to their underdog role against Cincinnati.
00:59:27
Who? Yeah, they tied last week.
00:59:28
But there you have to have a wind.
00:59:30
So Jacksonville's got one more wind than Cincinnati.
00:59:33
The line is correct here.
00:59:34
The Jaguars are actually taking a little money.
00:59:37
It opened a field goal out in the desert on git is 2.
00:59:41
5 across the board.
00:59:42
There's one little three hanging on at wind currently, and it's a +105 watts.
00:59:49
So that is soon to be gone as well.
00:59:51
So the Jaguars getting a little bit of action there on the spread where the day actions been on this game is the total.
00:59:56
This total opened 44 it is sense sped up 49 49 a half.
01:00:03
You have those still out in the Vegas market? Uh, there's a lot of ways you can look at this.
01:00:11
The Jaguars defense is not good.
01:00:13
I think we all know that if I pull up adjusted efficiencies for both.
01:00:17
Defense is, though, we got Jacksonville down at number 29 in the NFL.
01:00:23
They are top 10 though, against the run, so I don't see a whole lot of Joe Mixon in this game for Cincinnati.
01:00:30
Of course, the Bengals have not been really been getting a lot of production out of him is fixed.
01:00:33
It's fantasy owners would know right now, and you know, I'll ask you that question.
01:00:39
I guess after I finish up this this whole spiel Jake.
01:00:41
It's more fantasy related than betting, but back to defensive efficiency.
01:00:45
Cincinnati is top 10 overall there, number nine number eight against the past and not quote is good against the run.
01:00:52
Bengals defense is sneaky.
01:00:53
Good, I think, compared to what a lot of people thought coming into the year, given how bad the Jacksonville offensive line is, I like Cincinnati a lot in this game.
01:01:03
I think that with the 2.
01:01:04
5 the line movement down to 2.
01:01:06
5, that makes me in, enticed your toe that Cincinnati on this game, the threes, the 3.
01:01:13
5 that might have been out there during the week.
01:01:16
It was kind of take it or leave it.
01:01:18
But going back to the total of the point, I was ultimately trying to make them all over the place here.
01:01:22
This movements too far.
01:01:24
I don't wanna bet this game over 49 I don't even know if I want to get it over 48.
01:01:29
At that point you're looking at, if we split down the middle, both teams need to score 24 plus points.
01:01:36
I don't know that I see that happening.
01:01:38
I really don't I know James Robinson is emerging for the Jaguars.
01:01:42
I know Gardner Minshew in June mania.
01:01:45
It can happen at any moment when we least expect it.
01:01:49
Uh, I just don't see it in this one.
01:01:53
And I think for that reason and also Jacksonville success defending the run, I could see a situation where, you know, the Bengals put up points that maybe it takes a little while for job er on the passing game to get it going in this one s o, I would be looking if I were at this game, just vastly better poll of 49 we've been talking about The books are moving their totals up this week based off the highest scoring games the first three weeks.
01:02:24
And here you have a total that opens at 44 it gets that up 5 5.5 points.
01:02:29
That's that's too far for me.
01:02:31
And I want to counter play that.
01:02:32
I think if I'm attacking this game and the fantasy question, leave myself.
01:02:40
I've been trying to decide what to do.
01:02:42
Um, I selling low on Joe Mixon or my riding this out as an owner.
01:02:46
And if I'm not a mixing owner, is there any Bilodeau intrigued for you as a non owner? I'm not really too interested in bringing in Joe Mixon.
01:02:59
Um, I just think there's other guys who you could probably get in a trade for about the same price.
01:03:06
Or it might even be a guy that you could get off the waiver wire.
01:03:09
Still, that's like doing something near Well, Joe Mixon is doing.
01:03:12
I just wouldn't be comfortable giving up too much for for mixing, Um, if you could sell them them on and get even.
01:03:19
You know something for him.
01:03:20
Even a tight end like a reliable tight end, because tight end has been such a difficult position to predict this year and such a, you know, all over the place.
01:03:28
If you could get if you could get a, uh, every week type of player for Joe Mix, and I'm definitely styling him right now, I have, um no, no problem with that, really? Because I think as as Joe Burrow gets better, and as this young receiving corps continues to develop and get better, I think that the focus is gonna be more on Joe Burrow more on passing the ball less on Joe Mixon, less on running the ball.
01:03:53
So I don't have Joe Mixon in any leagues.
01:03:56
This year, so I thankfully, don't really have to.
01:04:05
Anyways, he's one of those guys woke up 15 1 Week 18 next week and then two weeks after for the next two weeks.
01:04:11
After that, he'll put up four or five points like that's just been him throughout his entire career.
01:04:16
Eso I would say, if you could get something for him, get in every week, type of starter.
01:04:20
I definitely move them.
01:04:22
Um, but as far as bringing him in, I don't really have much interest in and bringing them in.
01:04:26
But I do like after everything you said, I do like the under 49.
01:04:30
Um, definitely.
01:04:31
Because like you said, I mean, I don't have to be a 2025 to 24 game and you're you're hitting that post right there.
01:04:39
I don't I don't see it either.
01:04:41
Um, I think, obviously, Joe Burrow has.
01:04:44
He's taking some licks in these first few weeks, and he's stood in there taking it like a man like he looks really, really good.
01:04:51
Gardner Minshew obviously had a big old ah big old goose egg in a game was a week to very good.
01:04:59
So I mean the potential of the potential to score is always there, of course, but, I mean, I just don't see this is a 24 25 type point point effort for each of these teams.
01:05:12
Either on, like you said.
01:05:13
Yeah, and he totally gets better up five points.
01:05:16
Like I'm pretty much gonna be on the opposite end of that unless you get in.
01:05:20
You know, if you if you get in on the movement when it has moved one out of five points.
01:05:25
But if you get in on the opposite side when it's already moved five points, I mean, that's the danger zone, man.
01:05:30
You're playing with fire right there.
01:05:32
Yeah, both offensive lines.
01:05:33
I didn't even touch on Cincinnati's offensive line.
01:05:35
That's a good point to Uber has been killed.
01:05:37
Eso they're not gonna be able to run the ball very effectively, giving a bad offensive line in a piece of Jaguar of defense.
01:05:43
That kind of falls in line with how I'm thinking here.
01:05:46
Cincinnati will get theirs.
01:05:47
But it's not gonna be as much as I think people would like to think, because it might take a minute in this one, so yeah, honestly, the opening line of 44.
01:05:58
To me, that feels like the one where I would have a tougher decision to make if I were gonna bet the total then this new line of 49 this is under all day.
01:06:08
And I'm gonna be curious to see if this gets a little buyback before kickoff.
01:06:11
Potentially tomorrow.
01:06:12
Yeah, this game smells like a 21 16 23 17 type of game.
01:06:19
Somewhere in there? Yeah, for sure.
01:06:22
Um, so, yeah, I think that's pretty much all we got on that game.
01:06:26
I did come up with another little Kirk cousins, stat.
01:06:29
Going back to the last game really quick, especially if you are interested in that ****** knife fight promo.
01:06:36
Kirk Cousins has thrown 25 26 27 passes in all three of these games, so let's say he's even on the upper end of that 27 passes.
01:06:46
In order to hit that to 60 threshold, he would have toe average 9.
01:06:51
62 yards per attempt, which is pretty high, especially for Kirk Cousins.
01:06:58
Um, so, yeah, I'm comfortably, I think after knowing that I'm comfortably on the under as far as that Kirk cousins, Prop goes.
01:07:06
Just wanted to throw that out there.
01:07:07
Oh, and by the way, he's only completed in the last two weeks.
01:07:11
11 passes and 16 passes each of the last two games.
01:07:15
So it's not like Kirk Cousins is lighting it up through the air by any means.
01:07:19
Uh, and also, those numbers are pretty swayed because he had 251 yards and three passing touchdowns last week.
01:07:26
Uh, in the week before that, he only had 113 yards through the air and zero passing touchdowns.
01:07:32
So, uh, yeah.
01:07:34
Anyway, those my cousin stats.
01:07:36
What did you have for yards per pass? Exactly that he would have to average.
01:07:43
Yeah, You said 9.
01:07:44
6 9.
01:07:45
62 Yeah, but for your research, uh, NFL quarterback yards per pass thrown, average yards per pass this season.
01:07:59
Number one, Jared Goff, 9.6.
01:08:03
And he's number one.
01:08:05
Number one.
01:08:06
Well, that makes me feel okay.
01:08:08
Yeah, so that makes me feel very good.
01:08:10
You're playing with, like, a 50 yard total.
01:08:12
Um, cushion.
01:08:13
You're playing with over about a yard and a half average cushion s.
01:08:18
Oh, yeah.
01:08:19
Head on over to ****** knife fight Use promo code flurry and hit the under on the cousins passing yards.
01:08:24
That seems like a pretty good one.
01:08:25
Lincoln promo code are in the chat in the chat.
01:08:29
Thank you very much, Henry.
01:08:31
As we I have officially moved out of the noon hour and into the afternoon.
01:08:36
We've got Let's see, 245 total games.
01:08:40
Thio talk about yet as we are nowhere near keeping it within an hour.
01:08:45
But we never are, so Oh, well, we, uh, continue here with the Giants and the Rams.
01:08:52
This was the other big spread that I had alluded to earlier on in the stream.
01:08:57
Rams air 13.
01:08:58
5 point favorites.
01:08:59
Um, some I mean it if you're gonna take the big if you're gonna take the big spread one out of these two big spreads between the Ravens and the Rams, I probably I don't know.
01:09:17
He was about to say I'm probably leaning rams, but now I don't know.
01:09:21
I do like the ramp spread, though 13.
01:09:22
5 the Rams have looked good.
01:09:24
Um, all year, the Giants have looked anything but good.
01:09:28
Um, Daniel Jones, I think is okay.
01:09:32
So I heard.
01:09:33
I heard Ah, crazy stat about Daniel Jones and I I might not get it 100% accurate, but, uh, here it goes.
01:09:41
I think Daniel Jones has started 16 games now in his career in his career.
01:09:45
I believe he's had some sort of turnover in 15 out of those 16 and he has had multiple turnovers in 11 out of the 16 games.
01:09:57
That is not good.
01:09:58
That is really, really, really bad.
01:10:01
Eso I don't like Daniel Jones on the line or excuse me and the Giants here, Um, especially against the Rams, who are a team who are gonna make you pay for turnovers.
01:10:11
They're gonna find a way to put the points on the board, even if it comes in the form of a field goal.
01:10:16
I think the lot or the Rams come out on D score quickly against the Giants.
01:10:21
I like Henderson a lot in that backfield.
01:10:24
Jared Goff, like you said, has the number one average for yards per attempt.
01:10:30
I mean, everything is going well for the Rams this year, whereas everything is going horribly wrong for the Giants.
01:10:35
13.5 points.
01:10:38
Give it to me.
01:10:39
I'll take 13.
01:10:40
5 l A Rams all day total is 48 on this game.
01:10:46
Yeah, the best of this number.
01:10:48
It spread wise is long gone.
01:10:50
It opened it nine out in Vegas and, uh, 13.
01:10:55
That was it.
01:10:56
And it is cut up 14 13.
01:10:58
5 across the board.
01:11:00
And I would just a much assume there's gonna be a little bit mawr movement toward the Rams before kickoff.
01:11:07
Just given public perception of the Giants.
01:11:09
Right now you're talking about Daniel Jones turnovers.
01:11:12
He has a lot of fumble problems, and you just It feels like you breathe on this guy and he's dropping the ball in the backfield.
01:11:18
And, you know, part of me is interested to see how to your work does offensively in this game.
01:11:24
First three games.
01:11:25
Pittsburgh, uh, San Francisco last week and oh, my God, I'm blanking on the one in between.
01:11:32
Who did they lose? The Bears was the three of the NFL's best defense.
01:11:35
Is that while the Rams, I think, have a very good defense, Very talented, obviously, Aaron Donald being the star of that unit, I don't know that they match the other three that the Giants have played in terms of, you know, overall team continuity, team defensive success.
01:11:53
I should put the just inefficiencies here.
01:11:56
I will do that in a moment for the Rams, but part of me wants to see if the Giants do do a little bit better offensively in this game.
01:12:03
With that, said New York's offensive line, just look so bad.
01:12:07
I could see her on Donald having a field backfield and blows in Daniel Jones direction balls.
01:12:15
It's gonna be on the ground.
01:12:17
So, like you said this Rams defense, they've done it over the years, and there's plenty capable of doing it here this year as well.
01:12:23
Just arriving off of turnovers.
01:12:25
Uh, I don't see the Giants hanging in this game at all.
01:12:31
I think this is a clear Rams win.
01:12:33
I've been higher on the Rams that a lot of people coming into the year Ram should really be 30 right now if not for a *** Regis pass interference called into that game against the Bills last week.
01:12:44
Uh, so I think this offense is just gonna go to town against this brutal giant secondary to put it kindly, I guess for them and the big thing for the Rams to the running game getting established.
01:12:59
Uh, that was what was missing in this office last year, and it was all on the shoulders of Jared Goff.
01:13:04
And whether it's Gerald Henderson or Malcolm Brown, or can makers get back in, the mix is well, going forward.
01:13:10
That's huge.
01:13:11
If Los Angeles is able to run the football, that's like, you know, the backbone of this offense.
01:13:15
So very encouraging there, looking at the total for this game.
01:13:21
Got it. A 48 48 a half.
01:13:23
Uh, man, you know, it's one where I feel like I want to bet it under.
01:13:28
And then I could just see, like, a stupid backdoor cover to the over s.
01:13:32
So I think that the total there is a past I think this game in general has got to be a pass for me.
01:13:37
I don't really have a play on it.
01:13:38
Um, given the new line of 13 that opening line of nine, the Ottomans fashion the rand's all day.
01:13:44
Yeah, I wish I would have seen that.
01:13:45
I would have put my life savings into that. Jeez.
01:13:48
Yeah, That was out in Las Vegas, where I feel like they tend to open we bit earlier than the rest of the country.
01:13:55
Adjusted efficiency.
01:13:56
Defensively, the Rams are ranked 21st in the league, 12th against the past and 25th against the run. Of course.
01:14:05
No, say, Guan Barkley.
01:14:06
Monte Freeman might have a bigger role of this game is the second week with the Giants.
01:14:09
So I guess do with those numbers what you will, bro.
01:14:16
I have a stat for you.
01:14:18
Are you ready for this? This is even more mind blowing than my than the Daniel Jones stat.
01:14:23
I just gave you, uh, as I mentioned and I was right 16 16 games.
01:14:28
He's got at least one turnover in 15 of those 16.
01:14:31
He's got multiple turnovers in 11 of those 16.
01:14:35
Now, listen to this.
01:14:36
When we break down the turnovers Daniel Jones in his career, this is just This is amazing to me.
01:14:42
In his career, which has only been 16 games, has a total of what the heck, I just had it here.
01:14:49
Alright has a total of 16 interceptions, so he's averaging one for every single game that he's ever played in 16 interceptions He has wanting from BLE Student.
01:15:01
20 fumbles, No.
01:15:03
16 interceptions, 20 fumbles he has.
01:15:07
He's two for two and lost fumbles this year, so he has two fumbles this year.
01:15:10
Both of them have been lost.
01:15:12
Last year over the span of 13 games, he fumbled 18 times, lost 11 of them.
01:15:18
So he has lost 13 fumbles on 20 actual fumbles and has thrown 16 interceptions.
01:15:25
So that's 29 turnovers that he's created over the course of 16 games.
01:15:33
29.
01:15:34
And he fumbled the ball seven more times on top of that, that they were lucky enough to get on 29 times.
01:15:41
Dude, and this guy, this this New York offensive line is not gonna be.
01:15:47
I'm sorry, Erin.
01:15:49
Donald's gonna be in the backfield at some point on Sunday, and you know, to my point of just, you know, you feel it feels like you breathe on Daniel Johnson.
01:15:57
He drops the football, man.
01:16:00
There could be multiple more falls on the ground, I think, uh, on site, being a jets and pretty much being all in on the hashtag tranq for Trevor.
01:16:12
Hashtag lose for Lawrence movement.
01:16:15
After Thursday, we're talking about Washington, maybe being a sneaky candidate to grab Lawrence.
01:16:20
At least you were.
01:16:21
The Giants cannot be ruled out of this conversation, and I know it's only a second year in the league.
01:16:28
But assuming Dave Gettleman might be on the outs here fairly soon, what will new regime want to Dio? And that was another part of the Washington conversation around a barrel coming in.
01:16:37
You gotta get your guy right.
01:16:39
If Daniel Jones plenty of talent on that offense, it is not clicked.
01:16:48
I don't think in that regard at all, and part of that has to go on him and all these turnovers as well.
01:16:54
Uh, I really could see the Giants and the Jets picking 12 in this draft and strength of schedule wise.
01:17:03
You know, I'm not saying we're both going to go on 16 but if we do the strength of Schedule Edge as being the worst team would have to be the Giants, right, playing in the n, F C East and uh, not playing through the n, f c and N f C West.
01:17:15
So well, we speak football team wants or something, you know e Well, and I think you're totally right.
01:17:22
All the arguments I made for Ron Rivera are you know, they're even more amplified for Joe Judge.
01:17:27
And he fits that Cliff Kingsbury comparison even better, Uh, than you know, the one that I threw out there.
01:17:33
Even better than, uh, riverboat Ron does.
01:17:36
I mean, a new guy and a big time.
01:17:39
Um uh, franchise, Tons of media, everything like that.
01:17:44
You're already already stuck.
01:17:46
You already gonna get slaughtered.
01:17:47
You might as well do it with the guy that you want as quarterback.
01:17:50
Not the guy that you were given, you know, um, but, man Daniels, those numbers of our mind, But I'm just a little comparison.
01:18:00
Um, So again, Daniel Jones fumbles 20 fumbles in his 16 year career.
01:18:06
13 of them lost.
01:18:07
Aaron Rodgers since 2005 has 18 total fumbles.
01:18:12
13 of them lost.
01:18:13
That's it.
01:18:14
He's lost 13 fumbles since 2000 and five, and he had five more.
01:18:18
That hasn't been recovered.
01:18:19
Aaron Rodgers also has a total of 84 interceptions.
01:18:23
So 84 That's 94.
01:18:25
He has ah, 102 turnovers.
01:18:29
And since 2005 total 102.
01:18:32
Daniel Jones has 30 and 16 games.
01:18:35
It's that's brutal.
01:18:38
That's brutal.
01:18:39
That's that's really bad.
01:18:40
So, yeah, I don't know if Daniel zones.
01:18:42
You know there are good things about him.
01:18:45
He can, you know, when he throws the ball, it looks all right.
01:18:48
But, man, you cannot win with a guy who turns the ball over an average of twice a game.
01:18:53
Especially, you know, I guess it's just I mean, Giants fans already know this were telling that we're not telling them anything that they don't know.
01:19:01
But Daniel Jones? That's his biggest knock.
01:19:04
Obviously incredible amount of turnovers.
01:19:08
Mind blowing, mind blowing anyways, taking the Rams in this game, uh, just to bring it full circle there.
01:19:16
Rams minus 13.
01:19:17
5 is what I'll be on Colts versus Bears.
01:19:21
This is another interesting game.
01:19:22
A ton of the even field goal games this week, week starting for the Bears, for as the kids like to call him Vidic.
01:19:35
Nick, Um, that being a nick falls, uh, playing for their dogs on Where did my draftkings go? Here.
01:19:46
Still three point underdogs to the Colts.
01:19:48
Um, it's not like the Colts have been you know, dominant.
01:19:51
Either they are too and one, but had to sc**** by to get one of those victories.
01:19:56
Bears are three, you know, on Lee a three point total.
01:20:01
Um, excuse me.
01:20:02
Three point spread in this game with a 43 point total.
01:20:06
How do you read this game here? Well, this game got moved, I believe right from the one o'clock window with the cancer. The postponement.
01:20:16
Rather, I should say, uh, Patriots chiefs.
01:20:19
Correct me if I'm wrong.
01:20:20
Right? This game wasn't well, Yeah.
01:20:21
Yeah, I got moved to the four o'clock window.
01:20:23
Or otherwise, they would have only been, I think, three games.
01:20:25
Three games total.
01:20:26
Now there's four.
01:20:28
Yeah or no.
01:20:29
Excuse me, There would have been two games total.
01:20:31
And now there's three.
01:20:33
Right? Okay. Yeah, that makes sense.
01:20:35
And one of those games have been giants.
01:20:36
Rams.
01:20:37
Which e don't know how many people are gonna be lining up to watch that one.
01:20:40
Yeah.
01:20:41
So out in Las Vegas.
01:20:43
Interesting.
01:20:44
This game opened a pick, and we've got threes across the board with 1 2.
01:20:47
5 at Mirage.
01:20:50
That is the lone holdout, minus 1 20.
01:20:53
So it seems to be going in favor of the cult's.
01:20:56
They're very soon as well.
01:20:58
Total is 43 43 even across the board.
01:21:05
You know, neither team has really been that impressive here the first three weeks.
01:21:09
It seems crazy to say that because the parish in three, you know, they could they could very well be, uh oh.
01:21:15
And three here, uh, to come from behind wins.
01:21:18
That certainly felt miraculous.
01:21:21
And then the game against the Giants there in week two, who we just talked about, They had to get a red zone stop there at the end of that game.
01:21:29
Just Oh, hang on after they blew a halftime lead of their own.
01:21:34
But for me, Nick Foles coming in and taking over the started here, that's gonna make all the difference for this offense.
01:21:38
And I'm really excited to see how it plays out.
01:21:42
Anthony Miller, I think, is going to get a huge boost from this fantasy football players.
01:21:46
If you're out there and listening, that's a guy I'm looking to scoop up.
01:21:50
If he is available in your league, uh, three.
01:21:54
Cohen Chicago lost him for the year.
01:21:59
That that's only gonna b'more work here for David Montgomery and his value boost as well.
01:22:05
Montgomery's a guy I'm just high on in general, both of fantasy and in NFL standpoint.
01:22:09
So I'm excited to see what he does with some or touches.
01:22:12
I really think it's just gonna be a boost of life.
01:22:15
I think Nick Foles fits this Matt Nagy scheme better.
01:22:19
Uh, then Travis Key Everwood.
01:22:21
And I understand the Bears starting the season with him trying Thio one last dish.
01:22:25
Justify using the number two overall pick one Mitchell Stravinsky a few years ago, and it just didn't work out.
01:22:35
Yeah, in case in case the Bears fans out there don't realize this.
01:22:39
I mean, I'm sure you've never heard this before, but both Patrick Mahomes and the Shawn Watson were in that same draft.
01:22:44
I don't know if anyone's ever told you that Bears fans, but you could have had either one of those guys.
01:22:49
Yeah, I believe Lamar Jackson to right.
01:22:51
So, uh, it's crazy.
01:22:55
Um, but anyway, looking at the Colts here just a little bit, I think Jonathan tailored it might be a struggle in this game.
01:23:03
You know, Chicago's defense for all the attention swirling around the spares offense.
01:23:08
Defense continues to impress.
01:23:10
Week in and week out, the Colts want to run the football.
01:23:13
I think they'll go in here looking to make that happen, but it might take a little while.
01:23:18
If I look adjusted numbers for the Bears, running the football would be the way to attack this defense.
01:23:25
They are fourth adjusted efficiency against the past, only 20th against the run eso that could fit right into what the Colts want to dio.
01:23:33
I don't think the last too much of Philip Rivers receivers, Air banged up Paris Campbell, of course, out.
01:23:38
And Michael Pittman, I believe, is missing.
01:23:40
This game is well for the Colts.
01:23:42
I could get his official status here in just a second, so it's gonna be a T y Hilton game as's faras pass catchers go, and he doesn't look great here these first few weeks.
01:23:53
Um, I don't have a strong play on this.
01:23:56
Either way, I almost almost one about 43 over.
01:24:02
If I'm looking at doing this one way, I think it would be over 43 or the Bears catching three.
01:24:09
Uh, nothing really jumping out here.
01:24:11
I guess that'll for me when I look at the lines.
01:24:14
Yeah, I like the Bears catching three as well.
01:24:16
Just because the Colts have not been enough and offense will be good enough to keep it.
01:24:24
Um, but keep it within a one score game the whole time.
01:24:27
Whether that's, you know, seven points or three points, I'm not quite sure, But I think the potential, um to win the game at the end of the game is gonna be there for either one of these teams.
01:24:37
I think it might come down to one of those final drives there with a chance for either one of these teams to actually win the game on that last possession.
01:24:47
That's just it gives.
01:24:48
That's the vibe that I get from from this game here.
01:24:51
And I think I think there's Post three is a pretty good bet.
01:24:56
I could see Nick Foles coming out and leading this team to victory once again.
01:25:00
I don't mind the bears plus 1 28 on the money line either.
01:25:04
Wouldn't throw a ton at that, But hey, not a bad plus money bet.
01:25:09
Um, because you're you're having to give up Thio, get the three points.
01:25:13
You're having to give up.
01:25:16
What is a T O minus 1 21 is where the past three is.
01:25:21
So if you like the Bears in this game, you think the Bears have any chance of winning.
01:25:24
That's obviously a pretty big swing.
01:25:27
That's almost a 50.
01:25:30
The swing of I don't know how how to put this, but the swing from minus 1 21 2 plus 1 28.
01:25:37
That's almost 50.
01:25:38
What is it? What are these? What's what's that even referred to as? Obviously, it's not points, it's not.
01:25:44
How do you even refer to that? I don't know.
01:25:47
Um, learning things live here.
01:25:49
What are you talking about? So I'm talking about, like, how would you phrase like? So I'm talking about the swing between If you bet plus three on the Bears, you have thio.
01:25:59
The payout is minus 1 21 but if you take the money line, the payout is plus 1 28.
01:26:04
So that's a swing.
01:26:05
The numbers.
01:26:06
That's a swing of 50 in there, but I don't know what to say.
01:26:09
Like a swing of 50.
01:26:10
What? It's not swing of 50 points or swing of 50 whatever but the payout is is greater by right.
01:26:18
So you're saying, essentially, you would be Justus comfortable Betting Bears Money line, which I actually am inclined, almost agree with.
01:26:27
You can't open to pick in a sense, move three points.
01:26:31
Uh, almost feels like a little too much for this game, especially with Nick Foles coming in.
01:26:36
That's a boost for Chicago's office. May.
01:26:38
You're saying that's better value than spread essentially right? Yeah, better value.
01:26:42
I just not for sure.
01:26:44
I just don't I'm gonna have to, like, look it up or find somebody that understands what I'm saying toe like, I just don't know, You know, obviously, because you could say, you know, it's ah, if you're getting plus three verses.
01:26:55
If you're laying two points, that's a swing of five points, right? But I don't know how to refer to the swing on the payout like the difference between minus 1 21 and plus 1 28.
01:27:05
Obviously, that's a 20.
01:27:07
That's Ah, 49 something swing 49 dollars.
01:27:12
If you're looking at you know, 100 you're laying 100 to win 100 plus 100.
01:27:17
You're essentially, it's a $49 swing there, I guess to put it in dollar terms, I've never really heard anyone refer to a swing over zero, though in the money line by that route.
01:27:26
But that would be I guess how I would make sense of it, right? Yeah, because, I mean, if you put if you put $100 on plus three, you're gonna get about 80 back.
01:27:35
But if you put $100 on plus 1 28 you're gonna make a new additional $28 on top of that.
01:27:43
Ah, 100.
01:27:45
So I guess it would be, Yeah, it would be a $50 swing, so yeah, thank you.
01:27:49
Definitely a good way to look attacking that game.
01:27:51
And I did pull up the Colts injury poor just Well, Jake was hemming and hawing trying to figure that out.
01:27:56
And I wasn't listening, so we had to re explain it.
01:27:58
On top of that, Michael Pittman is out for this game on T y.
01:28:02
Hilton also did not practice on Friday.
01:28:05
His game status is a simple dash on the injury report right now, so I don't even know who the Colts will have.
01:28:15
A receiver of Hilton cannot dio That might mean a lot of Mohali Cox and Jack Doyle both out of the tight end.
01:28:21
Spot it, that's That's not pretty.
01:28:24
So that makes me like.
01:28:40
And obviously that's just in terms of dollars.
01:28:42
There's a $50 swing there if you're talking between the spread and the money line.
01:28:47
So, uh, I don't know if you want to get a little bit risky.
01:28:50
You believe in the Bears? I would say, Definitely take the money line.
01:28:52
Um, you want to play a little bit safer, Take the points, but, you know, having to give up that minus 1 21 on the points.
01:28:58
I just don't really love that when you could get plus 1 28 on the money line.
01:29:03
Moving on now, just real quick.
01:29:05
Essentially, this credit thing, the Colts, You know, if your it doesn't exactly pan out.
01:29:10
If you do think if you calculate home field advantage mathematically, it's not three points every time.
01:29:15
Essentially, this new spread is saying the culture six points better on a neutral field.
01:29:20
I'm not buying that.
01:29:22
I think they're, you know, the more we've broken this game down looked at the injuries, etcetera, etcetera.
01:29:28
There is some value for me on the Chicago.
01:29:30
They're spread well And look what Nick Foles was able to do.
01:29:34
Not having taken first team reps just stepping in with only half a game to go and being able to orchestrate that. Come back.
01:29:41
Now, if you've got a game script with the ones, everything like that.
01:29:47
I mean, their offense should look, Justus good, if not better, as it looked on it with Nick Foles last week. Right on.
01:29:52
We know what we've gotten out of Philip Rivers and the, uh, Colts offense and then, especially if they have, if they beat up at wide receiver Yeah, like like you said, the more we talked about this, the more that I like the Bears.
01:30:04
So, uh, I don't know, I might bet on both.
01:30:06
I might take the points, just his insurance, But But the money Lina's well, because I do like the Bears in this spot this week against the colt.
01:30:14
Your point about Nick Foles.
01:30:15
He's made kind of a career of pulling rabbits out of the hat.
01:30:18
You know, coming in with teams are that's true last week and then when they've had time, When when you know Nick Foles is gonna be the starter.
01:30:24
It hasn't always worked out Look good. That's true.
01:30:27
That's true.
01:30:28
You know, that's not that's not going to sway me here.
01:30:30
If it's the same story this week, then I you know, who knows? We might see Mitch back in their e Don't want to go there.
01:30:39
That's it Would take some really, really, really awful play by Nick Foles to get Mitch back in there.
01:30:45
Especially like, maddening at this point, it just he probably rip all of his fingernails off and everything else first before before putting ah, mixed Robiskie back in.
01:30:55
But, um, anyways, I like the Bears here, and I think you do as well.
01:31:00
So yeah, go ahead and lock in the Bears Final afternoon game eyes the Bills versus the Raiders.
01:31:12
Another interesting game to me.
01:31:15
Um, I think the Bills defense has been slightly underwhelming compared to what most people were thinking and hoping that they would be over the course of the season.
01:31:25
Um, Josh Jones Electric.
01:31:28
I mean, there's nothing else you could say.
01:31:29
I obviously the Turk, the the questionable turnovers at that point.
01:31:35
At some point, some of the things that he does on the field.
01:31:37
They're very unorthodox.
01:31:38
That's a good word for it.
01:31:40
He plays the quarterback position in a very unorthodox way.
01:31:43
But man, is he fun to watch.
01:31:45
I've I've said it before in that draft class that we're all drafted 12 or whatever at this point in their careers.
01:31:56
Give me Josh Allen.
01:31:57
Like Josh Allen is the one that I want out of all those guys right now.
01:32:01
Baker Mayfield eventually might be able to, you know, make a run for it if he can.
01:32:05
If you can figure things out, um, or if he ever, you know, moves on from Cleveland, who knows what his career holds in the distant future.
01:32:15
But as of right now, I mean, give me Josh Allen.
01:32:17
This guy, he gets better every single every single week.
01:32:20
And like I said, you can.
01:32:21
You can question a few things that he does.
01:32:23
He's very unorthodox, but I love watching the kid play.
01:32:26
I think he's got a monster arm.
01:32:27
I think the bills are really good across the board.
01:32:30
If their defense just has, it hasn't been performing.
01:32:34
I like the Bills a lot, and then when you match them up against the Raiders, who really are another unpredictable team.
01:32:41
Darren Waller was completely shut down last week by New England.
01:32:45
Which, of course, wasn't a surprise because Bill Belichick probably spent, I say, I don't know, 50 hours watching.
01:32:51
They're watching Waller tape alone, so he probably knew exactly how Thio shut him down.
01:32:59
I just don't I don't I don't know.
01:33:01
I don't think the Bills are going to run away with this game by any means, but I also don't necessarily think that it's gonna come down to the wire.
01:33:09
I think it's the Bills.
01:33:10
Just take care of business.
01:33:11
Limit those turnovers.
01:33:12
They should be able to win, Um, 3.
01:33:14
5 points here.
01:33:16
So obviously, you're going to need more than a field goal, which I think the Bills are capable of doing.
01:33:21
Maybe you see this game differently than me.
01:33:23
Another 52 a half point total here.
01:33:29
Buffalo Bills are minus 1 77 on the money line.
01:33:33
Yeah, I just don't really see any other way that I want to take this game outside of the 3.
01:33:36
5 points in favor of the Bills.
01:33:38
What do you got on this game? Yes.
01:33:41
This game open 2.
01:33:42
5 out in Las Vegas in favor of the Bills is 3.
01:33:45
5 and a few threes, more threes than there were earlier in the day here, popping up on the Vegas market and I would get to three.
01:33:54
I would prefer the three, if I could.
01:33:56
Yeah, totals ranging from 52 a half up to 53.
01:34:01
That is the total I'm looking to play over in this game.
01:34:04
I think it's gonna be There's gonna be a lot of points.
01:34:07
I could very well see the Bills getting the majority of that themselves.
01:34:12
This offense has been a lot of fun to watch here in these first few weeks, going up against the Raiders defense that is not good to begin with and has significant injury issues, particularly in the secondary.
01:34:25
It's a big Stefon Diggs spot.
01:34:26
I don't know who Las Vegas has that is gonna be able to cover him very effectively in this game.
01:34:34
With that said, though I don't know, I'm kind of struggling.
01:34:36
The late I guess, three and a half year with Buffalo part of me wants part of me wants to take the Raiders.
01:34:42
I feel like they're gonna, you know, they're gonna put up a fight in this game, eh? So I guess I'm kind of staying away from the spread on the total over would be the way I'm looking.
01:34:53
I know the theme of this show has been betting under totals that we feel like the books are catching up with.
01:34:58
This one still feels too low to May.
01:35:00
I think the bills will be able to get anywhere from 31 to 35 points of this five themselves, uh, in the way their defense has been playing.
01:35:08
I like Las Vegas to make up the difference there as well.
01:35:11
Uh, the Raiders injury wise on offense.
01:35:15
Henry Rugs is doubtful.
01:35:17
And then Brian Edwards has already been ruled out.
01:35:19
It's gonna need to be a Josh Jacobs game on the ground.
01:35:23
And also, they're gonna need more on the Darren Waller, Uh, just plain and simple.
01:35:27
And then 100 retro could be like a stinky flex play.
01:35:30
I think, uh, in fantasy this week, for sure.
01:35:33
Hey, put up a nice line last week and I could see him very much doing that again.
01:35:39
Looking at adjusted efficiency just because I was curious the bills were particularly poor, actually, against the run. 26.
01:35:46
So, uh, I could see a situation where, uh and that would go against an over bet.
01:35:56
It's still not going to sway me off of it on the Buffaloes.
01:35:58
Also 15th against the past.
01:36:01
I guess the big concern for me is, you know, is Derek are gonna be able to get it done with limited weapons.
01:36:08
And so with that, I bring into the conversation another ****** knife.
01:36:12
I project this one.
01:36:14
We only have to pick three out of four of these correctly and we still win.
01:36:18
2.
01:36:19
5 times are buying eso.
01:36:20
We got Derek Carr over under 270 a half passing yards.
01:36:25
Stefon Diggs over under 67 a half receiving yards.
01:36:30
Josh Jacobs over or under 80.
01:36:31
5 rushing yards.
01:36:33
Darren Waller over under 5.5.
01:36:36
Perceptions.
01:36:39
Oh, boy.
01:36:40
Um, so again, the Derek Carr one is kind of holding me up, but I like the Darren Waller over and receptions, I think, even though he was smothered last week in New England he still managed to catch is by the end of the game, um so and obviously his target share eyes typically a lot higher than that.
01:37:00
So I would like the over in that I definitely like the over and Josh Jacobs rush yards because, like you said, the Bills have not been that great against the run.
01:37:08
And Josh Jacobs has been, has been really good, um, going all the way back to some of the first streams that you and I and Zach ever did together.
01:37:16
You you asked me, right? I don't know what's wrong with you for, you know, not liking Josh Jacobs.
01:37:20
Because I love Josh Jacobs.
01:37:21
And ever since then I've come around, realized I was an idiot because you know Josh Jacobs is He's great.
01:37:25
He's a He's a monster.
01:37:27
Um, so I like the over on Josh Jacobs as well.
01:37:30
And then what was the other? What was the other prop there? Waller, Josh Jacobs, Derek Carr and Stefon Diggs.
01:37:37
I like the overdone Stefan days as well. Yeah.
01:37:40
Yep.
01:37:41
So for me, looking at playing this, it would be car I'd be going under.
01:37:45
I think I probably want to just too much going on here with the receivers and the injuries.
01:37:51
I think the Raiders will score.
01:37:53
But I think this is a big Josh Jacobs game going over for Jacobs.
01:37:58
Darren Waller.
01:37:59
You know, I think you got to go over with that.
01:38:02
Just given the injuries.
01:38:03
Uh, Derek Carr is gonna be throwing to him a lot in this game.
01:38:07
He's a primary target.
01:38:08
When on that digs is an easy overplay.
01:38:13
Good news.
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01:40:35
One last game to talk about on Sunday before we jump into the Monday night contest between the Packers and the Falcons.
01:40:43
Uh, Sunday night it's gonna be wrapped up by the Eagles taking on the 40 Niners.
01:40:49
Believe this line has moved a little bit, just like most of them have have this we have this week.
01:40:55
I think the last time I looked the Niners were only a seven point favorite.
01:40:58
Now they are a 7.
01:40:59
5 point favorite.
01:41:00
Pretty decent pay, although minus 106 on draftkings.
01:41:03
So you're getting nearly even money, Um, for the Niners minus 7.5.
01:41:08
Right now, I'm just in the camp where I don't believe in the Eagles.
01:41:12
And I do believe in the 40 Niners, despite all their injuries, despite everything that the 40 Niners have had going on, Kyle Shanahan has just taking it in stride, has come out and just dominated teams even without basically every single one of his starters.
01:41:27
It seems like I am in the camp of not betting against the 40 Niners until somebody comes out and shows me why I should be betting against the 40 Niners and this season.
01:41:44
So I'm just gonna roll with the 40 Niners again.
01:41:46
Believe they get George Kittle back this week.
01:41:49
So if you're making me take a point spread here, I'm going to take the 40 Niners.
01:41:55
Um, don't really don't know if I'll be betting this game if I'll be live bullets on this game or not, But I do.
01:42:01
Yeah, I do like the 40 Niners to both win this game and probably cover against the Eagles.
01:42:08
Alright, I am going to play Devil's Advocate, I guess for you on this one look a headlines out in Las Vegas on this game last week a Tsar Ca It was 3.5.
01:42:22
Now that you know the 40 Niners, I think should be favored.
01:42:25
Here's the home game.
01:42:26
Uh, they've looked impressive.
01:42:28
Despite all of their injuries.
01:42:30
The Eagles have looked terrible.
01:42:32
Uh, and the Eagles have got plenty of injuries of their own to.
01:42:35
Sean Jackson is out for this game.
01:42:37
Now.
01:42:38
I want to say I and I might have heard this correctly.
01:42:40
Three Eagles had one healthy wide receiver dressed and practicing this week, and that is Craig Ward, which is just absolutely insane.
01:42:49
Tight end Dallas Goddard is also out.
01:42:51
It's there in the same spot as they were last year.
01:42:53
They went out, they drafted all these offensive weapons and they drafted.
01:42:56
They got all these wide receivers and they're like, Oh, we're you know, we're gonna be good.
01:42:59
Injury bug won't get us this year.
01:43:01
Now we're three weeks in and you're in the same spot You were in last year.
01:43:04
Except you don't even have Dallas.
01:43:05
Got it.
01:43:06
Now you know, God, it was such a huge part of that offense last year, and now he's on IR.
01:43:10
Yeah, so and Carson Wentz has not looked good.
01:43:13
The offensive line is not held up in past approach to dealing with injuries of their own and the Philadelphia secondary that was supposed to be improved.
01:43:21
You know, going out in training for Darius Slay.
01:43:23
That is not worked out either.
01:43:24
Um, and yet McMullen's is starting on the other side.
01:43:30
The 40 Niners defense is and what they are.
01:43:33
Paper, I guess when you account for the injuries backfield still banged up, has to give should get a bit of a boost.
01:43:40
Deebo Samuel was activated off IR this week.
01:43:43
How effective he'll be in his first game back remains to be seen.
01:43:46
George Kittle is gonna be back in the fold, and yet look a headline based on this new line of 7 7.5.
01:43:52
In most places, it's the ultimate by low on the Eagles with how bad they've looked.
01:44:03
Touchdown, uh, why not? This is a team that needs to make something happen and I know no one is running away with the NFC East ahead of them.
01:44:12
If Dallas wins earlier in the day and the Eagles loses their full game and a half behind.
01:44:17
All right, this team, this team needs to get a win.
01:44:21
Andi, you know, it's not ideal.
01:44:25
The 40 Niners defense is gonna have their way.
01:44:27
This could be a low scoring game.
01:44:28
I wouldn't put that past anyone either side on this one.
01:44:32
So, looking at the total of 45 45 a half, I might be looking to play that under two.
01:44:37
Uh, but again, Same thing is we were talking about with the charges.
01:44:40
Bucks this low, total.
01:44:41
I'm projecting a game that could go under this total.
01:44:45
And you're telling me there's a you know, a full touchdown, plus full touchdown and hook in some places on the spread.
01:44:52
This is eagles for me.
01:44:54
Eagles territory.
01:44:56
Um, I'm on Philadelphia in this game, and it pains me to say it very, very strange way because I feel like if they just, you know, needles figure things out there.
01:45:08
Not this bad, are they? But yeah, they might prove me wrong, but that's that's the only place I got here.
01:45:15
I'm not laying 7.
01:45:17
5 and you were right last week. I was on the Giants last week.
01:45:19
Eagles are better than the Giants, so Oh, eagles are much better.
01:45:23
I mean, the Eagles.
01:45:24
The Eagles have 10 times better chance of covering the spread than than the Giants, but somehow are bigger underdogs want the Giants only like six point underdogs or 6.
01:45:35
5 point under three three and a half.
01:45:37
Oh, ****.
01:45:38
And you guys were on the Giants last week.
01:45:40
That was the opening kind for, uh, this Eagles game.
01:45:44
The Giants game started around 6.
01:45:46
5, and they just got sharp money all the way down.
01:45:49
All week long, this game has gone in the other direction.
01:45:52
I just think it's an overreaction to what 40 Niners were able to do against what I think we both agree is a terrible Giants team and the Eagles team that it just looked out of sorts in every single game so far.
01:46:03
That's got to change at some point.
01:46:04
I think, you know, injuries aside that you're giving me a full touchdown here against a team that's dealing with their own injuries, and I just think it's a market overreaction.
01:46:14
I think that's a lot of what's weighing into this.
01:46:16
Bet for me is you know, I don't love the Eagles as a team I want to bet on, but this number just feels too far off.
01:46:24
So that's the play, and that's that's totally fair.
01:46:28
And, like, you know, like Like I said, if you had any sort of belief that the Giants had a chance last week, you should definitely be believing that the Eagles have a chance this week, especially when you're getting 4.
01:46:40
5 extra points in your favor.
01:46:42
Like definitely, if you were a Giants better last week, you should be an Eagles better this week, even though Kittles back and things like that.
01:46:48
But I don't know.
01:46:50
I don't mind Nick Mullins.
01:46:51
I I just don't think that the drop, I think that the coaching is so great there that the drop off of the quarterback matters less already.
01:47:00
But then, when you're talking to drop off from Jimmy G to Nick Mullins, it's far less than the drop off of, say, Patrick Mahomes gets hurt and Chad Henny comes in, you know, like that's that's a drop off.
01:47:11
That's a difference.
01:47:12
You know, I just don't think that Nick Mullins is all that bad.
01:47:16
And I don't think Jimmy Garoppolo is all that great.
01:47:18
So, um, I think you're getting a lot of the same quarterback.
01:47:21
Obviously, Jimmy is bad, and now he's getting some healthy receiving target back.
01:47:29
I don't know.
01:47:30
I think Mullins and the and the Niners, until I see otherwise, um, are not again.
01:47:34
I don't love laying 7.5.
01:47:36
I'd much rather be laying three right now, but I'm just not prepared to bet against the Niners right now.
01:47:41
Um, especially against the Eagles.
01:47:44
Although, like you said, with the Eagles as terrible is that happen? And as backed into a corner as they are, maybe that makes them more dangerous.
01:47:51
So I don't know, Maybe I'm a fool, and I'm on on the complete wrong side of this game.
01:47:55
I guess we will see tomorrow night.
01:47:57
Uh, when Sunday night football hits the field, one of us is a fool.
01:48:01
Here.
01:48:02
It's either mayor you.
01:48:03
So you're right.
01:48:04
Last week, I'm hoping they prove me right.
01:48:06
This week, and then I don't have to feel like it's much of a fool.
01:48:09
And one final point I'll make because you were talking about coaching.
01:48:12
I think the Kyle Shanahan versus Joe Judge coaching matchup is a far greater mismatch.
01:48:19
Doug Peterson.
01:48:20
Oh, for sure, for sure, for sure.
01:48:24
First year.
01:48:25
So I mean, like I said every reason across the board, if you were on the Giants last week, you should be on Philadelphia this week.
01:48:32
I mean, every reason across the board says that you should be, um so, yeah, that's Sunday Night football we're gonna wrap up with Monday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and my Green Bay Packers.
01:48:46
This is the first time in three weeks that I am not just getting about the Packers spread.
01:48:51
I have hit on the Packers spread, and I have hit on Packer money or Packers as, uh, Moneyline underdogs.
01:48:58
Two out of the three weeks hit the spread.
01:49:01
All three weeks I've been all over the Packers.
01:49:04
I love me some Packers.
01:49:05
They've been great to me, Great for my fans.
01:49:07
I'm great for my checkbook this week.
01:49:11
I just can't I don't think I could make it for four.
01:49:14
I think this is I don't want to call it a sucker bet, but I kind of think it's a sucker bet here with as amazing as the Packers have been there, favored by a touchdown.
01:49:24
But they do have some injuries.
01:49:26
I mean, the Falcons choose.
01:49:33
Their defense is giving up a bunch of points late in the second half.
01:49:37
Um, I think that they are a more even match up for the Packers than some other people might think that they are this week.
01:49:44
And I just I don't love the Packers to cover the seven with an injured or a hobbled.
01:49:50
I guess you could call them, um, Davante Adams and then losing Alma's art.
01:49:55
I think Al Mazar has become a massive impact player in this Packers.
01:49:59
Often it's and even though they're still gonna be able to run that I don't love the Packers by seven.
01:50:07
I still like him on toe win the game, Um, but I think Atlanta stays inside the number and again we're talking 56 a half point total here, which I believe might be the highest out of any game.
01:50:20
And indeed it is.
01:50:21
The highest of any game that we've talked about here.
01:50:23
So Monday Night football, Obviously, people are expecting a shootout.
01:50:27
Expecting a lot of points from both teams.
01:50:29
You see, any way that this game goes under between these two high powered offense is And what do you think about the spread? I don't I don't think just off principle.
01:50:38
I don't think I'm gonna bet on Atlanta like, actually go live bullets on Atlanta.
01:50:41
But I do think they're gonna be able to stay inside the number this this week.
01:50:47
Yeah.
01:50:48
You know, Atlanta has been breaking the heart of betters weekend week out here, getting a full touchdown.
01:50:56
It's enticing.
01:50:58
Uh, I guess I just don't have a strong enough opinion right now to say, tell you to run and back the Falcons in this game.
01:51:07
Uh, this is a Atlanta team, though that quite conceivably could be three.
01:51:13
And oh, right now, right.
01:51:15
If they get a few more breaks to go their way against Seattle on, then just the two back to back awful collapses here in the past two weeks.
01:51:24
Um, they could at least be two in one.
01:51:26
No doubt about that offense is gonna be a premium in this game.
01:51:30
This is what was one of those games where the totals of 57.
01:51:33
And you know, I really don't know how this game goes under.
01:51:36
I think both sides are gonna be lighting it up.
01:51:39
I could see both sides eclipsing 30 points.
01:51:42
Uh, probably, maybe even more likely would be the winning side in the upper thirties.
01:51:47
Losing side in the lower thirties or upper twenties.
01:51:50
Um, yeah.
01:51:53
So I would be looking at over, I think if I were gonna play the total, that's probably the best that I have in this game.
01:51:58
Uh, the line opened as Green Bay minus five.
01:52:02
Getting better up two points.
01:52:04
Do with that.
01:52:05
What? You will control Hawkins in this spot, but, you know, this is just gonna be an offensive shootout.
01:52:13
I think both ways.
01:52:15
For me, losing Lazard hurts Green Bay.
01:52:18
But, you know, like you said, they get Adams back.
01:52:20
I am confident in both offenses, and Green Bay has got a by week toe Look forward to this is the home game.
01:52:28
And just I can't trust Atlanta right now.
01:52:32
I want I almost want to say the Falcons have to go in here and win this game outright.
01:52:39
That's not gonna happen.
01:52:40
It's it's just not and I can't even trust them Thio, you know, take seven points with them in a road game, then Atlanta is frustrating our animal.
01:52:51
See that? The packers for me and yeah, I mean, Atlanta last week.
01:52:57
I believe it was yeah, against the Bears and both of my 80 s pools.
01:53:02
I had them as my best bet, and anybody that plays the TS knows your best bet is worth two points is every other pick is worth one.
01:53:08
And I was celebrating all, like, the whole time.
01:53:11
I was just, like, so happy like, Oh, I hit my best bets easily.
01:53:14
You know, Atlanta comes back, gives up the game.
01:53:17
I lost both my best bet.
01:53:19
So, um, I don't know what's intriguing me.
01:53:22
Thio even believe in Atlanta a little bit here, except for the fact that just the Packers have been so good and Alan Lazard happy that offense that I think Atlanta will find a way to keep inside the number.
01:53:35
I don't see them winning this game.
01:53:37
I I just definitely don't, um Green Bay has been too good for that.
01:53:41
But, um, something Thio consider here, too.
01:53:44
And actually what, you know, this could come down Thio affecting the spread quite heavily.
01:53:50
Atlanta doesn't know who's who's kicking for them this week.
01:53:53
Uh, young, like who is is doubtful.
01:53:56
I don't know if Atlanta I haven't been, you know, up on up on the Atlanta kicking tryouts or anything, but I don't think Atlanta knows who's kicking for them this week.
01:54:04
On Gwen, You have Mason Crosby on the other side, who has been really good this year.
01:54:09
And the Packers.
01:54:10
Of course, I have all sorts of confidence in him.
01:54:12
If the Packers can kick the field goal and the Falcons can't, I mean that that could potentially prove to be a big factor in this game.
01:54:21
Yeah, very well, could young lady who is going to be out for this game from a fantasy team? I'm sure exactly what route are gonna be going at kicker, but it's not gonna be whoever the Falcons air trotting out there to keep bugles for them.
01:54:34
I could tell you that much.
01:54:36
Uh, Atlanta will get a boost offensively here in this game.
01:54:39
You know, we're talking about the monster.
01:54:40
Adam's coming back. Julio Jones is questionable.
01:54:42
I would expect to see him out there.
01:54:43
I think in this one.
01:54:44
This is go time for the Falcons.
01:54:46
After last week got away from them, it's gonna be all hands on tech.
01:54:50
Isn't Ridley questionable as well? Ridley is questionable.
01:54:55
That would almost be the receiver I would be more concerned about.
01:54:58
I think for Sunday for Monday night.
01:55:01
I'm sorry, uh, fantasy wise and put you in a tough spot being a day later than all the other games.
01:55:07
Uh, from a betting standpoint, I You know, as far as the spread goes, I only see this total climbing higher.
01:55:15
So I guess if you like the over which I don't like the under here, I'm gonna leave it at that.
01:55:20
You like the over Lock it in now.
01:55:22
Uh, faras the spread goes.
01:55:24
I want to get some more clarity on these injuries.
01:55:26
Andi, I think it will come down to who's in and who's out for whether or not I am actually a Falcons backer on Monday night and just one other statue to throw out there in favor of the over thes two teams two teams have not turned the ball over this season.
01:55:46
Matt Ryan has two interceptions, but outside of that, the Falcons don't have a single turnover.
01:55:51
The Packers have zero turnovers a squad through three weeks.
01:55:55
Zero fumble, zero interceptions.
01:55:57
Eso that bodes well for the over as well.
01:56:01
You're not going to have the offense over there turning, turning the ball over, um, and missing out on opportunities for points, I guess.
01:56:11
S Oh, yeah.
01:56:12
That's something to think about as well.
01:56:14
Anything else that you've got here as, uh, man, I said, we're gonna keep it inside of an hour.
01:56:20
And we're 3.
01:56:21
5 minutes away from two hours, but, uh, this is my favorite stream of the week.
01:56:27
I never mind talking, bedding, talking football.
01:56:29
Of course.
01:56:30
Anything else that's on your mind before we sign off here? Uh, yeah.
01:56:36
I got something else that's on my mind.
01:56:37
The yellow would 500 at Talladega Superspeedway tomorrow, uh, for NASCAR.
01:56:43
I'm deviating from NFL betting to NASCAR.
01:56:45
Betting I didn't have an article go out this week.
01:56:48
Um, things were kind of crazy on my end, but there are a few names I'm looking at here, Uh, for the superspeedways.
01:56:56
For those of you who don't know NASCAR when they run of these tracks, uh, they have a package that's mandated to them by the governing body.
01:57:04
And so it keeps, basically keeps speeds and check.
01:57:07
Because superspeedways thes long straightaways with high banking on the turns, Uh, speeds easily exceed 200 miles an hour.
01:57:14
And without this restrict or package, uh, they would be going, uh, just incredibly fast.
01:57:20
A tease places, uh, so a few names, though with that being said, I guess, uh, to finish that point, uh, playing field evens up.
01:57:29
Uh, and so you know, it's almost anybody's ballgame.
01:57:32
But being a playoff race this week, Uh, the one name among the playoff drivers that I'm looking at is actually the same guy was looking at back in the spring here, this track.
01:57:40
And that's Eric al Merola.
01:57:42
Hey is known for loving the superspeedway races.
01:57:46
He's 16 the one that draftkings right now toe win the race given it's a superspeedway, given its uneven playing field, Even the odds for the favorites in this race like a Denny Hamlin is the odds on favorite also tends to run well here at Talladega and has been very successful at Daytona.
01:58:03
The other superspeed around the NASCAR circuit.
01:58:06
Multiple 8 to 1 last week in Las Vegas and hardly odds on favorite on.
01:58:15
He was just plus 3 50.
01:58:16
So that just kind of tells you how the superspeedway evens up this playing field on.
01:58:22
We can look at a few non playoff drivers to that could be on the map here this week.
01:58:28
Ricky Stenhouse Jr is that wanting toe one.
01:58:31
Ty Dillon eyes at 80 to 1 and then a shout out special shout out to Brendan Gone in his final NASCAR race.
01:58:41
He's also at 80 to 1.
01:58:42
He's only running superspeedway schedules this year.
01:58:44
Finished top five at Daytona, though in the last race of the regular season.
01:58:49
Eso this is his last.
01:58:50
NASCAR rates one man team there.
01:58:53
Eso I'm pulling for him as the big underdog in this race.
01:58:56
He's 82 1, But yeah, yellow and 500 Tomorrow in the midst of your football starts at 2 p.m.
01:59:02
So be sure to check that out.
01:59:04
Talladega is my favorite tractor watch, so I'm all hands on deck for that one.
01:59:08
Yeah, That would be nice to have, you know, a nice feel good story there as well as hitting 80 80.
01:59:13
The one bet along the way.
01:59:21
A couple of bucks.
01:59:22
Yeah, that'd be really cool.
01:59:26
E like I like NASCAR for much of the same reasons as I like golf.
01:59:30
Of course, I'll bet in Gulf because there's literally unlimited so many things you can bet on.
01:59:34
You can bet on live every hole you can like.
01:59:36
There's a million things to bet on.
01:59:38
It was one of the reasons I love golf.
01:59:40
But, you know, the other thing is that almost every race, or almost every round, like the underdogs do have they have a legitimate shot.
01:59:48
I mean, and even if it's worth to throw, are worth it to throw even a few dollars that somebody like everything. The one.
01:59:54
Even if you put $2 on it like you're gonna 160 bucks if it ends up, you know, And like, $2 is nothing.
02:00:00
You can't even buy a slice of pizza with $2 but you could potentially win 101 160 bucks.
02:00:04
I like that about NASCAR much as much of the same as I like it with Gulf.
02:00:09
There's just value all across the board.
02:00:11
So if you actually know a little bit what you're talking about or you listen to somebody who does like Henry, Uh, there's, uh there's there's ample amounts or ample opportunity to make a decent amount of money.
02:00:22
So there you go.
02:00:23
There's some NASCAR picks for you.
02:00:26
That's what's so great about these superspeedways.
02:00:28
It's just pack racing.
02:00:30
You're always gonna get the big crash.
02:00:31
There's never a lack of entertainment.
02:00:33
That's the kind of racing I like.
02:00:35
It's other tracks, you know.
02:00:36
I get spaced out, and that's why you have such a variance in the odds at a place like Las Vegas, Atlanta, etcetera.
02:00:41
You're not gonna find that at Talladega.
02:00:44
Uh, and like Jake was saying, there's so many different ways to bet on these races.
02:00:49
Uh, you know, some of those guys we just talked about Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
02:00:53
You know a lot about him.
02:00:54
Toe win a 20 to 1.
02:00:55
You get plus 1 20 for a top 10 finish.
02:00:57
That's about I really like in this situation.
02:01:00
So, you know, you could do top tens, top threes top fives they have in race props.
02:01:06
Think about the best finish by manufacturer.
02:01:08
You can bet driver's head the head in matchups.
02:01:10
Um, draftkings has a really nice job putting these odds out.
02:01:13
But of course, other books have several NASCAR odds as well.
02:01:17
So should be throw some action on it all for it.
02:01:24
Especially Maybe if your bets aren't looking that great in the early window in football, maybe trying our change cards a little bit and, uh, get some action on NASCAR.
02:01:34
Um, I did promise moved a or just went on your football bets and then take all those winnings and, you know, put that on, put that on NASCAR.
02:01:46
Either way, Either way, you want to do it.
02:01:48
But I'd rather I'd rather take my winnings rather than be trying to chase.
02:01:52
Um, and of course, everybody bet responsibly, you know, want to throw that out there to um But I did promise.
02:01:59
Um I did promise that I would throw out my five team Moneyline parlay.
02:02:05
I also have a teaser that I really like that I'm gonna wrap up here.
02:02:08
I won't really go into depth too much about him, but I'll post them on my Twitter as well.
02:02:12
Um, by my picks at pick City, I give up free picks quite often on doing so again this week.
02:02:21
But I'm not giving out my best material because you gotta You gotta pay a few bucks for that.
02:02:26
But I have now The last two weeks hit each of my free parlays.
02:02:31
I hit my last free parlay last Monday with the Lightning money line, Air Lightning and Regulation and the Chiefs money line.
02:02:39
So my free probably have been on fire lately, so I will throw two more at you right here.
02:02:43
First is a five team Moneyline parlay.
02:02:46
Um, plus, it's gonna pay.
02:02:47
Plus 2 65.
02:02:49
You got the Sea Hawks, Buccaneers and Cardinals, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Cardinals and then just as a little extra on top.
02:02:59
I've got the Ravens and the Rams.
02:03:01
That's paying. Plus 2 65.
02:03:03
So Seahawks, Ravens, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Rams pays plus 2 65.
02:03:07
My other one is a 12 point teaser, which I love.
02:03:11
You got away a little bit of juice there, But man, 12 point teasers like they're almost there, nearly impossible to miss on.
02:03:16
So I've got my 12 point, Caesar here.
02:03:18
Seahawks are getting 6.
02:03:19
5 points.
02:03:21
Buccaneers air getting five points.
02:03:23
Ravens minus two and rams minus one.
02:03:26
That will pay out if you put 100 bucks on it. That will pay out $67.
02:03:30
So again, you're laying a little bit of a little bit of juice there.
02:03:33
But, I mean, how you're gonna lose that bet.
02:03:35
How are you gonna lose that? Bet you're not.
02:03:37
So there you go.
02:03:38
There's the two free part ways for this weekend.
02:03:40
You can check it.
02:03:42
That son holds on sport for other plays that I might throw out there.
02:03:45
Find me on Pick City as well as Zach.
02:03:48
You can find us both on pick City.
02:03:49
Both of us are Pixar.
02:03:51
Very reasonable.
02:03:52
My picks start for just 4. 99.
02:03:54
you get my entire card.
02:03:55
I think Henry will be on pick city eventually as well.
02:03:58
Um, check out pick city dot com Just in general.
02:04:01
Some amazing captures over there.
02:04:03
Great website for sports info of any kind as well.
02:04:07
You can click on the sports report.
02:04:09
Um, see some different articles that I and other writers right over there Pick city dot com Fantastic website.
02:04:16
Check it out.
02:04:17
Um, that my two free part ways That's some of that.
02:04:22
Some of Henry's very nice winning weekend.
02:04:26
I think that's all we've got tonight.
02:04:29
Aziz.
02:04:30
Uh, we move towards Yeah, that's all that I have written down that I wanted to cover.
02:04:36
So as we move towards Week four NFL Sunday kickoff, we appreciate you tuning in.
02:04:41
Thank you to all of you who, uh, tipped us.
02:04:44
Anybody who shares these shares these streams around, we appreciate it a ton and yeah, follow hang time.
02:04:51
Sports follow at Fleury Sports there.
02:04:53
I did the wrong hand again.
02:04:54
That's four weeks in a row.
02:04:55
Now.
02:04:56
I've done the wrong hand, and I, of course, am at Sun holds on sports.
02:04:59
Follow our fearless leader, Zach Brunner at fantasy Flurry, I believe, is his, um is his at on Twitter? Yeah.
02:05:09
Enjoy some football.
02:05:10
Hopefully you winsome bets.
02:05:11
We will talk to you on Monday night.
02:05:14
Have a fantastic weekend.
02:05:16
Everybody don't know if there's still some college football on.
02:05:18
I'm sure there's a big game going on yet tonight, but enjoy the rest of the night and enjoy NFL Week Sunday week for our NFL Sunday, Week four.
02:05:27
We will talk to you again on Monday.
02:05:29
Henry, have a good one.
02:05:31
And, uh, enjoy that race tomorrow to I don't know if I'll be tuning in, but enjoy it.
02:05:37
We will for sure. Have a good night, everyone.
02:05:39
All right.
02:05:40
Thank you, everybody.
02:05:41
And check out ****** Night fight as well.
02:05:42
Promo code flurry.
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Gonna get up to a $50 deposit match plus 5 $3 just for signing up and using the promo.
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NFL Week 4 Gambling Show. Breaking Down Every Game, Plus Best Bets!

126 Views
Henry John @HankTimeSports

Transcript hideup

00:00:01
Yeah.
00:00:03
Okay.
00:00:05
Yeah. What's up, everybody? We alive.
00:00:07
I'm having far fewer technical difficulties.
00:00:11
And I was on Thursday nights stream, so that is a very positive thing to get us started with.
00:00:18
For those of you who are with us on Thursday, you know, we had to do three different iteration of the stream.
00:00:23
Hopefully, that's not gonna be the case here tonight as we are going Thio breakdown every single game for you as we always do on Saturday night before the big NFL Sunday.
00:00:34
I have Henry with me at Hank Time Sports.
00:00:37
I am at Sun Holes on Sports.
00:00:40
Um, I always say this and were never able to do it, but I think we're gonna try and keep this within an hour tonight.
00:00:46
Um, it might be more doable since there's a few games that are obviously off the slate.
00:00:51
Do joining us in the comments section here.
00:01:00
Soon as I'm just gonna fire off this tweet here and we are ready to go.
00:01:06
So as mentioned, this is our gambling show here on Hillary sports.
00:01:11
You can accept this every single Saturday.
00:01:13
We here tonight got a fat in parlay that I really love that I'll give at the end of the stream and yeah, that.
00:01:28
Ah, lots more football to talk about here.
00:01:30
As we start with the week for Slate, it is actually my best bet of the week right off the bat.
00:01:38
Um, as if you're live joining us live.
00:01:40
Thank you for being with us live.
00:01:42
Thank you for checking out the re stream.
00:01:44
Appreciate all of you watching.
00:01:46
If you'd like to follow along with us, I am just going to go right down in the order that draftkings has.
00:01:52
This has these games listed.
00:01:54
It starts with the Seahawks and the Miami Dolphins.
00:01:57
This to 5.
00:02:02
5 in favor of the Seahawks.
00:02:04
I've got this line in all different kinds of ways.
00:02:07
Just took 5.
00:02:08
5 about an hour ago.
00:02:09
I've also got the Seahawks at 66.
00:02:10
5 and tease them all the way up to eight.
00:02:14
Um, I simply think the Seahawks are a much better team even without Chris Carson.
00:02:19
I think Russell Wilson is unstoppable right now.
00:02:22
Um, and I just don't see another huge week on the horizon. Four.
00:02:27
Fitzpatrick, Although I do kind of like Devante Parker is a fantasy play this week.
00:02:31
I like the Seahawks here, especially as at 5.
00:02:35
5.
00:02:36
I liked him at 6.5, so of course I love him at 5.5.
00:02:39
Um, maybe something fishy? Kind of, you know? Why is this line only 5.
00:02:43
5? I'm not quite sure.
00:02:45
Are the Dolphins just better than we think? Or is there something else going on? Henry, how do you read this game? What do you make of that 5.
00:02:51
5 point line? Well, this is a fun one to start off with, I think for sure.
00:02:57
Especially with you being on the opposite side of the line movement here, Jake.
00:03:01
So I'm excited to dive into this a little more.
00:03:03
Just looking at the lines out in Las Vegas.
00:03:07
That's where I like thio.
00:03:09
Kind of.
00:03:10
Even though I'm obviously not out in Vegas, I'd like to reference those lines just because I feel like you're not gonna get much of a better sense of the market that when you're looking out there as far as total this stuff this open 6.
00:03:21
5, um, out there and a Z, Jake said Five and a halfs, pretty much across the board here now.
00:03:28
I've been hearing a lot of Sharps throughout the week.
00:03:31
A lot of smart people who like Miami in this spot, and I think it's the general perception that this game is gonna be a shootout, right? So Chris Carson, I think, is, uh, probably going to suit up for this game.
00:03:46
I'm seeing game time decision now, so that's a boost.
00:03:49
Thio Seattle's offense.
00:03:50
Just having the running game to complement Russell Wilson in the passing game.
00:03:54
My biggest concern for Seattle is there gonna be without Jamal Adams, and this is a defense that has not been particularly impressive.
00:04:02
You're these first three weeks.
00:04:03
I know they've won every single game, but it let's be honest.
00:04:06
Russell Wilson has been just untouchable here.
00:04:09
These first three weeks, the defense has been giving up a lot of points and now you're down your safety and that is troublesome to me.
00:04:17
I think Ryan, Patrick and the Dolphins offense will be able to score, and well, I don't know if they'll keep pace the whole way.
00:04:27
Uh, I agree with you, obviously, here I think Seattle is the better team and at least should win this game.
00:04:34
Well, I don't know if they'll keep pace the whole way.
00:04:36
I am worried about, like maybe like a sneaky back to recover.
00:04:39
So when this line was hovering around 6.
00:04:40
5 7, I think there were there might have been 7.
00:04:43
5 at one point here in the week.
00:04:46
That would be a little rich, I think, for me to back the Seahawks at that point 5.
00:04:51
5, definitely little more doable here with this recent line move.
00:04:55
Uh, the other thing.
00:04:56
Just, you know, to keep in mind for this game.
00:04:59
This is about as far of a road trip is You can make in the NFL, right? Pacific Northwest, all the way down to South Florida s.
00:05:05
So this is quite the haul for Seattle.
00:05:07
Miami is coming off playing Thursday night last week, so they've got a little more rest a good spot for them.
00:05:12
Uh, and, you know, while they're probably not gonna be able to surprise, uh, Seattle and Russell Wilson like they were Gardner Minshew, Um, you know, this is a It's kind of a difficult spot here. for the Seahawks.
00:05:25
I'm seeing totals on this game right now.
00:05:29
Hovering around.
00:05:30
So 54 half, I think, is what I've got.
00:05:34
Yeah.
00:05:35
54 4 and a half.
00:05:37
I can't bet this game under.
00:05:39
That's the other injury on the Miami side.
00:05:41
We already discussed Jamal Adams firing.
00:05:43
Jones is gonna be out for this game for Miami.
00:05:45
That's their top corner.
00:05:47
There is no way I'm pulling the string under here, so I think if I were gonna bet it, it would be at the current price.
00:05:54
I like your Seattle pick.
00:05:56
Uh, those older lines.
00:05:57
I would probably be behind back on Miami, but I think this game is definitely gonna be issued out.
00:06:03
Like you said.
00:06:04
A lot of things leaning in the favor of Miami here, right? I mean, Seattle's got to travel.
00:06:09
Miami had the extra time off.
00:06:11
Seattle's down, their best defender, everything leaning towards the direction of Miami.
00:06:15
I just don't think it matters.
00:06:16
I think Seattle is that good of a football team.
00:06:18
I am a little bit worried about, like you said a back door cover.
00:06:22
Ryan Fitzpatrick never gives up.
00:06:24
Obviously, he's like he's the king of scoring touchdowns with, like, 13 seconds left to go, even though Miami's down by, you know, 13 or 15 or whatever, but he usually sticks one in the end zone.
00:06:35
It could cost you end up costing you to cover.
00:06:37
Um, I teased them all the way up Thio minus eight at one point earlier this week because I was getting, like, plus 1 30 money for it or something, and figured it was worth the shot.
00:06:47
Especially since I'm on them in three different bets at more favorable lines.
00:06:52
But I'm not so confident in the eight.
00:06:55
I feel pretty good about the 5.
00:06:56
5 Aziz.
00:06:58
Long as Fitzpatrick's doesn't do something to me right at the end.
00:07:01
There don't love the total either way, But of course, you're gonna go over if you are going to pick one of that one of these or one of the two here.
00:07:09
Um, I think both offenses are going to be able to score on the opposing defense.
00:07:14
So obviously you know, the over is is the better bet here, But I'm not in love with with that either side of the total.
00:07:23
So I'm gonna be sticking to my 5.
00:07:24
5 and just to cross my fingers and hope that they can cover the eight along the way as well.
00:07:29
Um, so yeah, that's Ah, that is the first game on the slate.
00:07:35
Should be a good one.
00:07:36
Russell Wilson, of course, with 13 touchdown passes in the first three weeks sets an NFL record and, uh, is looking to continue on that M V P type season down in Miami.
00:07:46
Second game of the slate eyes, a game that I threw out during our start sit um, Stream on Thursday, I threw it out there.
00:07:55
The Ravens minus 13.5.
00:07:56
I said, Book it, Take it.
00:07:58
I don't think Washington is gonna be able to score on this Ravens team at all.
00:08:01
I think the Ravens offense is gonna bounce back.
00:08:04
Lamar didn't even have 100 yards passing against Kansas City last week.
00:08:08
I think he reds that wrong line is off the Ravens early on in the week, I think like Tuesday, I got on the Ravens and they were minus 13 so I have it locked in at minus 13.
00:08:21
I don't mind minus 14 but I like the 13 13.
00:08:24
5 better if you could still find that total on this game is 45 a half.
00:08:29
Um, again, That line scares me just because I don't think Washington is gonna be able to score at all.
00:08:35
So I definitely I'm avoiding the over on this game Unless you're banking on the Ravens scoring? I don't know.
00:08:40
35 40 points themselves.
00:08:43
What do you think of this game, Henry Ravens right now favored by 14.
00:08:49
I think this is just gonna be another game where we see Dwayne Haskins struggle and whether Alex Smith is ready or not.
00:08:57
Uh, it might be Kyle Allen to start, but the Washington football team is gonna have a new starting quarterback here, if not next week.
00:09:03
It might be the week after.
00:09:04
I really feel like after the comments last week, Ron Rivera.
00:09:09
He knows what he's got here.
00:09:10
This move starting Haskins who? I don't know where you've come down on him, Jake. Exactly.
00:09:16
I've been saying all along.
00:09:17
He's not ready to start in the NFL, and he may never be, but, you know, you at least gotta let the kid developed.
00:09:24
He's not there right now.
00:09:25
Eso Ron River has done this to appease management, and then they can move on.
00:09:30
And I think that's gonna be coming sooner rather than later after this game.
00:09:35
Because, like you said, I don't see Washington having a whole ton of success offensively in this game.
00:09:41
Uh, the Ravens.
00:09:43
For all their struggles against the run last year, they are ranked number two through the first three weeks.
00:09:49
Again adjusted run.
00:09:50
Defensive efficiency on.
00:09:53
That's according to football outsiders.
00:09:55
D v O A.
00:09:57
Antonio Gibson is not gonna have a prayer in this game.
00:10:00
I think Baltimore Game script is going to see the Ravens jump out to a lead.
00:10:04
That's gonna put more pressure on Haskins.
00:10:06
And then it's just gonna be pinning the years back here for this Ravens pass rush, Um, looking at the lines out in Las Vegas.
00:10:15
It opened at 12.
00:10:17
I'm seeing it even 12 and it is at 14 across the board and even two touchdowns.
00:10:22
There's 1 14.
00:10:23
5, and I don't know exactly what the stipulations are on a fanduel super boost, but I was informed today that you are able to play the Ravens.
00:10:36
I think it was 12.
00:10:38
5 a two plus 1 10 through Fanduel.
00:10:41
That's about I'm taking.
00:10:43
I like that a lot based on just the line moves that we've seen here.
00:10:47
That's the best of the number that you're going to get at this point.
00:10:50
That's almost opening Vegas line.
00:10:51
Andi also.
00:10:52
I just think Baltimore wins this game easy for some ridiculous stat I heard this week.
00:10:58
Road favorites of two touchdowns, like like Baltimore in this spot are like 16 and two.
00:11:04
I think it was 80 s in the last 18.
00:11:07
I'm not sure how far back that goes exactly.
00:11:10
It's gonna be a little ways, because I feel like you're not gonna have too many of this larger road favorite like this, but from ridiculous success rate that favors Baltimore.
00:11:19
So, uh, if you're able to play that at Fanduel, I like that a lot.
00:11:25
It's not the only massive line we're gonna talk about today.
00:11:28
Obviously, when we get to it, the Rams line is pretty big as well, but they are not on the road.
00:11:34
So that's the difference between the Rams and the Ravens here, I think also to you, you mentioned about how Ron Rivera started Dwayne Haskins to kind of appease management and stuff.
00:11:45
Um, that very that very fact, mixed with the fact that it's Alex Smith behind him, makes me think that the Redskins are actually a sneaky candidate to end up with Trevor Lawrence.
00:11:57
Obviously, it's been between, you know, the big name, the big, uh, the big time, Um, conversation with who's gonna land him has been, you know, Jets.
00:12:06
Should the Jets moved on from Sam Donald, maybe draft him.
00:12:09
Is it going to be the, uh, Jaguars? Obviously, from the beginning of the season, that's been the talk.
00:12:14
Jaguar is gonna go all in 16 draft.
00:12:16
Trevor Lawrence.
00:12:17
Whatever.
00:12:18
I think.
00:12:19
I think that if you could put your money we saw with Arizona When Cliff Kingsbury came, Kingsbury came in.
00:12:33
Obviously, Josh roses there who? They spent a very high draft pick on.
00:12:37
Um, joining Haskins is here now who they spent a high draft draft pick on.
00:12:41
But the thing is, when you're NFL coach, um, around there is a little bit different because he's not a new NFL coach like Cliff Kingsbury.
00:12:47
But when you're in NFL, coach was just hired at a by a new franchise.
00:12:52
You have to get your guy like you have to have your guy, your ride or die type guy because you can't come in and deal with what you were given or deal with.
00:13:02
You know, the previous coaching staffs selection, because if things don't go right for you, I mean, if we've seen how short of a leash a lot of NFL coaches have, and again, Ron Rivera might be different because of, you know, people's respect that he has for him and the fact he's been in the league forever.
00:13:19
But your new NFL head coach, you come in, you got to set everything up with your guys your way because if the sink it starts toe, if the ship starts to sink and you're the one that's gonna be blamed for it, you have to make sure that you know you were the one who put everything in order that you're not, I guess, going down because of somebody else's choices because of somebody else's selection.
00:13:41
So you're gonna wanna get your guy in there fully like I guess I had ride or die with.
00:13:48
That is not Dwayne Haskins for him I don't think that's Alex Smith for him, either.
00:13:51
So I think you know, I could see them, them drafting another quarterback, Whether it's Trevor Lawrence or not.
00:13:57
You got to get a fresh, some fresh blood in there.
00:13:59
You gotta get your guy in there and establish your team, your roster moving forward.
00:14:04
And I think that's what Ron Rivera is gonna dio eso, no matter who is under center for the remainder of this Washington football season.
00:14:11
I don't think that we see that same player there next year.
00:14:16
Yeah, I completely agree.
00:14:17
And I think that's a huge reason why.
00:14:19
You know, everyone's like, Oh, Kyle Allen sucked last year and yet Washington goes out and brings them in.
00:14:24
Ron Rivera has familiarity there and knowing, you know, we didn't even know if Alex Smith would make it back, Uh, when the team made that signing.
00:14:33
Now things are looking better.
00:14:35
He's still not ready.
00:14:36
But just having Kyle and turn to that's one of the other reasons why I think Haskins time a starting quarterback here is just it's it's numbered here in terms of maybe even days.
00:14:47
At this point, we could even see Kyle Allen tomorrow and I Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked because Ron Rivera has that familiarity with him in the time in Carolina.
00:14:56
And I think I kind of got a bad rap last year, too.
00:14:58
I mean, I know there were a lot of interceptions.
00:15:01
There were a lot of dubious throws, Sure, in terms of injuries and just quality of Lee.
00:15:10
I know it's not much better in Washington right now, but I don't think Ron Rivera would hesitate to turn him if he has Thio.
00:15:17
And one other point I wanted to make on this game. Chase Young.
00:15:20
If you haven't heard he is out with a groin injury so that just, you know, plays right into I think, what the Ravens they're gonna be able to do here offensively, they're coming off a disappointing loss.
00:15:31
Lamar Jackson, then company.
00:15:33
They'll come out pretty turned up, I think here, Right off the gun.
00:15:39
Yeah, I'm comfortable with the Ravens in this spot.
00:15:41
And the other thing about Kyle Allen is you know, we've seen a lot worse, right? Like we've seen.
00:15:45
It's not like, you know, we've seen Nathan Peterman.
00:15:47
We've seen him come into games and we've seen what he can dio.
00:15:50
We've seen a guy like Brock Osweiler, you know, come in and have a Kyle Allen like performance for a couple weeks, and he populated into an $18 million contract or whatever it was per year contract.
00:16:00
Like I you know, we've seen worse than Kyle Alan before and again.
00:16:03
I don't think that Rivera rolls forward with Allen is a long term starter, but might be that Gap guy that he's familiar with.
00:16:10
He might be trying to groom him for a long term backup and then go go draft his guy in the upcoming draft.
00:16:16
It's and Washington is set up because their defense is so good they're set up to have a turnaround like we're seeing with the Cardinals.
00:16:23
I mean, the Cardinals were really bad under Josh Rosen and under I don't even remember who was their coach before Cliff Kingsbury.
00:16:29
But you make a few changes.
00:16:31
You bring in a quarterback, you bring in, uh, you know, quarterback that works well with the new head coach.
00:16:35
Now, look it. They're winning games.
00:16:37
They turn things around within two seasons.
00:16:38
I think Washington has the potential to do that as well, but they're not gonna do it with Dwayne Haskins or really anybody in that quarterback room right now.
00:16:46
Yeah, You can't tell me Kyle Allen is not better than Dwayne Haskins.
00:16:50
Right now.
00:16:51
I just I That's not even an argument for May, based on what we saw last year and what we're still seeing now and asking, and I totally agree with you football team has got an intriguing future here.
00:17:00
I think if you shore up obviously the offensive line, you're gonna wanna gonna wanna look at the secondary and then the quarterback situation to me, the second most important, arguably second, most important position, I think after quarterback on an NFL team is the defensive line.
00:17:22
I know the offensive line is very important, but when you have a defensive line that could dictate a game like Washington's has the talent to do and mind you, they're all young, so they're only going to continue to get better here.
00:17:34
It's an exciting future if they draft right, and that's been a big if with this franchise, I believe rib Eric and turn that around full trusted riverboat run full trust in riverboat Ron and I believe they have the assets to try and make some sort of exciting trade down the line.
00:17:50
If they wanted to do so as well again, Maybe kind of mirroring the cardinals and what we're seeing out in Arizona s O.
00:17:57
Of course, that's all coming in the future for Washington this week.
00:18:02
Uh, they're gonna get killed.
00:18:03
They are going to get killed by Baltimore.
00:18:05
You could pretty much lock that in.
00:18:07
Um, next, we have a game that has really been kind of difficult for me.
00:18:13
I've been staring at all week long.
00:18:15
I don't know what to do with it.
00:18:16
I don't want to totally avoid it.
00:18:17
I kind of like the Lions in this situation.
00:18:20
Although, um, you know, the states just have such a dominant running game and I can never trust the Lions.
00:18:29
Of course.
00:18:30
Saints Saints Lions Game is what we're talking about.
00:18:33
Minus three point favorites are the Saints total is sitting at 54 which is just seems to be a very popular number this week.
00:18:41
Got a lot of games between 54 56 on the slate New Orleans favored by three over the Detroit Lions.
00:18:50
I just don't know what to do with this game.
00:18:52
What do you think? What are you on this game? This is one of my favorite picks of the week.
00:18:58
I am Ride or die with the Detroit Lions and I may very well die by them this season.
00:19:03
But they came through for me last week.
00:19:05
I'm going back to the gun.
00:19:06
I like the Lions still catching a field goal here.
00:19:09
It was better here, a different points throughout the week when it was higher.
00:19:13
It opened four out in Vegas, it's been I've seen 4.5.
00:19:17
I've seen some fives throughout the week.
00:19:19
I believe I like this in at 4.5.
00:19:23
It would have been yesterday, I think.
00:19:25
Andi, today this line has seen movement down from 4 to 3.
00:19:28
5 and now even field goals across the board.
00:19:31
Uh, I think you're gonna have offense in this game.
00:19:34
I don't trust I can't trust Detroit's defense, but I also don't trust the New Orleans defense.
00:19:40
They looked a little shaky here against both Las Vegas Raiders and the Packers.
00:19:46
Just let him up last week s.
00:19:47
So there's some issues on the defensive side of the ball from New Orleans.
00:19:51
Ah, out generous.
00:19:56
Jenkins is also out.
00:19:59
Then we go to the offense.
00:20:00
Michael Thomas.
00:20:01
He's once again not going to be playing for the States.
00:20:05
There are so many injuries on both sides of the ball for New Orleans, that's not even all of them.
00:20:09
Uh, if I pull up their injury report here, I can give you a better look.
00:20:16
Eso Jenkins Lattimore Marcus Davenport, defensive lineman.
00:20:20
He did not practice.
00:20:22
He's out for a week For Jared Cook.
00:20:24
The tight end is banged up, Um, and then another defensive lineman, Noah Spence.
00:20:29
He looks to be active in this game, but those were just key losses in the secondary that plays right into what the lines wanna do offensively, which is throw.
00:20:36
Kenny Golladay is only going to continue to be better here.
00:20:39
Uh, he gets back into the swing of things.
00:20:42
This will be his second game back for Detroit.
00:20:46
I like the Lions here at home.
00:20:48
Both teams were one and two.
00:20:49
Both teams really need this game.
00:20:51
I like to try a lot.
00:20:54
I was on them coming into the year as we all know.
00:20:57
It didn't work out for me a couple weeks ago in screen Day.
00:21:00
Uh, really, though, if we're being honest, the line should be two in one.
00:21:04
It shouldn't have lost Week one to Chicago.
00:21:07
And I thought last week, going on the road and earning a win against the undefeated Arizona team and a defense that was forcing Kyler Murray into mistakes.
00:21:14
Zach and I on the show last week.
00:21:16
We just are.
00:21:17
One issue with Detroit in that game was How are they gonna be able to slow down this offense? Force three interceptions? And that's how you slow him down.
00:21:25
They thoroughly played Arizona.
00:21:27
They should one by MAWR classic line special to take it down to a field goal there at the end.
00:21:32
But I like the Lions catching the points here in this one.
00:21:35
I could see a game where the Saints win by a field goal, so even at the even three, it's still a play for me.
00:21:41
Uh, you know, it was better earlier in the week.
00:21:44
I might even Sprinkle money line to on Detroit.
00:21:47
I haven't ruled that out of the equation, although I haven't done it yet.
00:21:50
Still wishy washy.
00:21:51
There I mean, I've got I've got no arguments.
00:21:55
Like I said, I didn't really know how to read this game.
00:21:58
I, of course, like the fact that the lions have Kenny Golladay.
00:22:01
Well, the Saints don't have Michael Thomas.
00:22:04
Um so I like that for the Lions would have been more comfortable if I could get him at 4.5.
00:22:09
I think I might just avoid the line of three.
00:22:12
Although I think if anything, I think you're right.
00:22:14
I think the Lions probably were slightly better than they looked in the first couple weeks because they were without Golladay and because they were living through that stench of that Bears come back.
00:22:25
You know, that's gonna hang over you for a few weeks.
00:22:27
I think the Lions maybe are better than what they've looked early on.
00:22:33
They beat the Cardinals.
00:22:34
The Cardinals are not a team to sneeze at, so I don't mind the Lions in this in this spot either, although I'm not big, um, not big on this game, but also I probably will not be betting this game.
00:22:44
So Henry says the lions, I implore you all thio believe Henry and take the lion's um, so, yeah, I guess where I'm the Lions this game, it is worth noting the Detroit secondary is kind of banged up to, But when the Saints don't have Michael Thomas, I mean, who are we seriously worried about here, Emmanuel Sanders? And I guess trick Juan Smith has been kind of the more popular pickup in terms of fantasy football.
00:23:08
Just because of seeming to have a mortar stable floor in Thomas's absence.
00:23:14
I'm not convinced either one of them is a really threat to what Detroit is gonna be able to do in terms of their own offensive attack.
00:23:22
Eso Yeah, I'm pretty much all in on this one.
00:23:26
It's one of my favorites here of the week and thank you to act Ventura and by bike y for the we're catching the re stream.
00:23:41
However you take in the content here, we appreciate it.
00:23:44
We're here doing it for you because obviously, um, we all make our own bets and everything in our own time, so we're going to make our bets either way.
00:23:52
But we want to share this information to help everybody makes some money and, uh, appreciate everybody that checks out our content and especially goes out of their way and tips us.
00:24:03
We appreciate you all.
00:24:04
So thank you.
00:24:05
Bye bye.
00:24:06
Kuai and act Ventura moving on now to another bet that I actually do have an opinion on this time around.
00:24:13
It is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs the L. A. Chargers.
00:24:16
Uh, total of 42 a half.
00:24:20
That's another sneaky total that I think the Chargers may just have trouble scoring, so you might have trouble hitting that over unless the Bucks really explode.
00:24:27
But the Bucks minus seven, is a comfortable bet for me this week because the Bucks have been averaging, I think, like 24 points somewhere in, uh in that area.
00:24:38
Well, the the Chargers have been averaging, like 17 points.
00:24:43
They scored 16 2 different times in Week one and Week three.
00:24:47
And then, of course, they scored 20 in their week to match up against Kansas City, which was probably their best play a game of the year.
00:24:55
Other than that, though, they've been held to 16 points twice.
00:24:59
Um, I think obviously Chris Godwin is out.
00:25:02
I think that could affect the Buccaneers on offense a little bit, but I also really like this Buccaneers defense.
00:25:08
I think they're gonna be able to hold the Chargers in.
00:25:10
Check a zoo.
00:25:12
We know Justin Herbert will be getting his third start in a row.
00:25:14
Tyrod Taylor still out because of that lung.
00:25:19
The beginning is lung punctured.
00:25:20
Ah, couple weeks back, minus seven.
00:25:23
Is ah, comfortable bet for me.
00:25:25
I would think that this line should be up in, like, the 88.
00:25:29
5 type range.
00:25:30
But it is at seven.
00:25:32
I like seven for the Buccaneers.
00:25:34
How do you feel? Well, I'm going to start with the total I think for this game.
00:25:40
Eso out in Las Vegas.
00:25:41
This is again reemphasizing the point of you wanna be, make sure you shop around to find the best line for how you're planning to attack a game based on your handicap.
00:25:51
There's totals ranging a full point here.
00:25:53
We got 42 42 a half at most books, but then there's also a 43 s o that one point.
00:26:00
You know, it's crazy to say that, but you want to get that one extra point depending on which side you're on for me.
00:26:06
I don't really have a play on the total, but I completely agree with you here.
00:26:09
This is gonna be a low scoring game.
00:26:11
Might be one of the lowest scoring of the week.
00:26:13
I don't really see either offense doing a whole lot, and it's basically because both defense's are really, really good.
00:26:20
Todd Bowles has Tampa Bay's defense just playing lights out Football here through the first two weeks adjusted.
00:26:26
I believe they were number two overall top five, both individually against the run and the past and the charges.
00:26:32
Not too bad, either.
00:26:33
And you look at some of the matchups that they've had, namely Kansas City, but also Carolina's offense.
00:26:38
Uh, not bad.
00:26:40
You know, Matt Rule bringing his system here to the NFL level on their hovering, I believe just outside the top 10 adjusted eso not having Melvin Ingram.
00:26:50
That's a concern for the Chargers.
00:26:51
But I think this game is gonna be low scoring because when you look at Tampa Bay on offense, Jake mentioned Chris Godwin industry.
00:26:58
There's no Leonard Burnett for this game.
00:26:59
That's gonna be a bigger role for Ronald Jones, who you know, mixed feelings about him.
00:27:03
I don't like him as a running back s So I think that is that hurts the Tampa Bay rushing attack.
00:27:10
S o e.
00:27:11
Think both offenses.
00:27:12
They're definitely gonna struggle in this game looking at the Chargers offense as far as injuries.
00:27:17
The offensive line, it's it's really, uh, it's really becoming almost a mirror image of last year.
00:27:25
Mike Constant, the center.
00:27:26
We already know he's out for the year, but significant injury concerns here coming into the weekend, I don't know the updated status exactly on these guys.
00:27:35
I can try and find it as we go along.
00:27:36
But Bryan Bulaga the tackle.
00:27:39
Storm Norton, the backup tackle and trade turner, the Guard are all dealing with injuries.
00:27:44
Uh, all were questionable.
00:27:45
He's coming into the day.
00:27:46
Thio even suit up this week, and none of them practiced on Friday.
00:27:50
That's usually not a good sign.
00:27:52
So no Tyrod Taylor, Obviously, Justin Herbert.
00:27:55
He might be really in a lot of trouble back there in the pocket, giving how good this Tampa defense is.
00:28:05
Those offensive line is shaping up to be with that, said the low total.
00:28:11
I'm projecting a defensive game here and you're giving me a spread of seven.
00:28:15
I've even seen 7.
00:28:16
5 still lingering around offshore here today.
00:28:19
All right, I like the chargers.
00:28:21
If you're giving me the spread.
00:28:23
I wrote an article in this game.
00:28:24
It's alright.
00:28:25
Flurry sports that order.
00:28:26
Be sure to go check that out if you want a more in depth breakdown.
00:28:29
Uh, it's just too much, I think for me toe lay a touchdown in a game where I really if I'm betting the total, I wanna bet this total under s.
00:28:39
So I think that the charges at seven or if you can still get a 7.5.
00:28:43
I know that line was moving down, back to and even touched down, uh, throughout the day here at my board, right now in Vegas, So I would expect it to move that direction elsewhere.
00:28:56
But I'll take the full touch down here, and, uh, you know, this is gonna be an ugly offensive football game.
00:29:02
What can I say? But I think because of that, I like l a toe kind of maintain striking distance in this one.
00:29:11
And Justin Herbert is getting, you know, incredibly value time, right? Incredibly valuable starting time right now.
00:29:19
Every week that goes by, you know, even though they're not exploding on offense.
00:29:23
I just think every week that goes by, it's gonna be harder and harder and harder to go back to Taylor.
00:29:27
And again.
00:29:28
We've talked about this ad nauseum in previous streams, but I think Taylor again because of Ah, very miss Unfortunate, um, mishandling of a situation here.
00:29:40
I'm now going to be run out of another job, as I think.
00:29:43
This is Justin Herberts team moving forward.
00:29:45
I just like I like the Bucks in this spot, uh, Browns versus Cowboys.
00:29:53
There's another game that I've been kind of struggling with, which is a common theme for me across this week for Slate.
00:29:58
I've been pretty confident in a number of games in the previous three weeks, and there's just a lot of games this week that make me a nisi.
00:30:05
Uh, at first I would like to say the Cowboys, we're gonna cover four.
00:30:10
But then start to think a little bit about how the Cowboys have struggled mightily.
00:30:17
Um, in the early portions of games here, uh, might be a closer game than than the four point spread.
00:30:25
Brown's might even win this game outright, depending on how the Cowboys play.
00:30:29
I just don't I don't know what to do.
00:30:31
I miss one either.
00:30:32
So I'm glad I'm hosting tonight because I'm able to defer to you.
00:30:36
Uh, more often.
00:30:37
We've got the Cowboys favored by four points with a total of 56.
00:30:42
Where you got for this game? I'm shocked, Jake.
00:30:45
You're having trouble supporting your Uncle Mike here in this key that they haven't.
00:30:50
They haven't made it easy.
00:30:51
They have not made it easy, I'll tell you that. Yeah.
00:30:54
You know, what hasn't made it easy is the Dallas defense.
00:30:56
They have not looked good here these first few weeks for any.
00:31:00
They've been going enough against them. Good offenses.
00:31:02
The Rams, the Seahawks, the Falcons Even that's a good offense.
00:31:07
As bad as that team has been here.
00:31:08
And it's frustrating for us betters as they have been here, Um, these first few weeks.
00:31:13
But, you know, the Cleveland offenses talented, and I think the weakness of the Cowboys defense is the secondary.
00:31:22
So I'll be curious to see how much that might change the Browns thinking offensively whether they'll let Baker Mayfield air it out a little more Or if they're just going to stick with this nasty running back tandem of Chubb and Kareem Hunt out of the backfield, that's enough to wear down.
00:31:37
Even I think the best run defense is in this league.
00:31:39
So no matter how you slice it, I think Cleveland will be able to move the football.
00:31:44
Uh, with that said, the Brown secondary is also not too inspiring totals at 56 across the board out in Las Vegas as we speak and I think it's justified.
00:31:56
This is gonna be another shootout.
00:31:57
And, you know, we've seen offensive records be smashed left and right here these first three weeks.
00:32:02
We even saw a Broncos Jets game sale over the total on Thursday.
00:32:08
I think it's just gonna continue with a lot of these games, and we're seeing, uh, you know, it's funny.
00:32:13
We're seeing the books at their lines, like you wouldn't be saying that about a week at all last year, you know, maybe if you were lucky and all the matchups just kind of fell that way.
00:32:36
But these air, it's an extreme, you know, the books are going to get hammered on over bets forever, and that's what the public loves to play is over that eso we're going to see maybe some or unders, I think coming this week ast faras this one.
00:32:49
I don't really have a play on that total.
00:32:51
I I kind of want to play it under, but I can't do it.
00:32:55
ISAF are as the line.
00:32:58
I'm the person who's tend Thio, inclined to believe that Dallas is a little overvalued every single week, just based on public perception.
00:33:08
And so that kind of makes me want a piece of the Browns here, especially at 4 3.5.
00:33:13
So we're seeing now.
00:33:14
So we're seeing a little bit of a move here on the market toward Cleveland, and that makes me kind of feel like that might be the right side in this one.
00:33:21
It's just gonna be a back and forth game.
00:33:24
I could see it easily coming down to a field goal.
00:33:26
If I'm doing anything, it's the Browns.
00:33:28
3.5 or better.
00:33:30
Uh, but no, no strong feeling on this one either.
00:33:34
I guess I'll side with you there.
00:33:37
Yeah, and I think you know, it's just interesting because the number one thing that people were saying early on in the season was, Oh, you know, I'm betting the unders or I'm putting more you know, I'm taking the defense's over the offense because no, not much, really practice time, no preseason stuff like that across the board.
00:33:58
So So I think, too, that the bookies are like they know that people love.
00:34:03
They love to bet the over public loves to bet over.
00:34:05
So if you could inflate these, if you inflate these numbers a little bit, you're still going to get an influx of money on the overs, even though you're inflating the lines a little bit.
00:34:14
And then chances are, you know more.
00:34:16
More often than not, that's gonna be a good day for you as the bookie when you can inflated by a few points when and you know you're still going to get a mass influx of bets on the over, so I don't know, maybe that's kind of what we're seeing this week.
00:34:27
Or maybe it is just that offenses are just absolutely hammering.
00:34:31
These defense is even the best defense is, and the lines have moved accordingly.
00:34:36
Um, could be a little bit of both.
00:34:37
Obviously, book is always trying to make themselves a few extra books.
00:34:41
I think it is both.
00:34:42
I like what you're the the Quite a lot.
00:34:48
Actually, I think you're seeing higher totals this week because the books got to do something right, like we can't keep losing money.
00:34:55
They're in this to win, probably even more so than most bettors are.
00:35:00
But at the same time, the offenses are to me, at least just from the and looking at the box scores.
00:35:10
The offenses are a step ahead of the defense's.
00:35:11
And, you know, I was having a conversation with somebody today, just like why that might be.
00:35:15
And I was one of those people coming into the season.
00:35:17
I was kind of wondering, you know, our defense is gonna be even further ahead here to start a season than they typically hard.
00:35:24
You know, a normal NFL season.
00:35:26
You're probably going to see your lowest scoring games early on, and then maybe at the end, you know, depending on injuries and such with quarterback play and, uh, like down the stretch of the season.
00:35:37
But usually the offenses air take a little bit of time to warm up, and that's not the case at all this year, and I think for me it comes down to the different preseason and training camp that Waas, like you said, You you have to get on the field in practice tackling.
00:35:53
There's just been so much terrible tackling these first few weeks in these Games that that I've watched and I'm sure I'm sure if you've watched the NFL game, you've seen some poor tackling your these first few weeks.
00:36:07
What's happening? Left and right offensively, you would think that you need to be on the field to practice plays and such.
00:36:15
I feel almost feel like I'm having a change of thought.
00:36:17
And maybe I could scheme up a play better over a zoom meeting and I could send.
00:36:21
You know, we could look at these different things and then go out and execute them.
00:36:25
And when the tackling technique is just not there like it typically would be coming into a year, that's the best explanation I have for it right now.
00:36:35
To be honest with you.
00:36:36
Uh, it's crazy, though, be the offense we've seen and that's why I think to me a game like this, where everything we've seen the first few weeks.
00:36:45
Bad defense is on both sides, offenses with plenty of talent on both sides.
00:36:49
It makes you think it should go over this line.
00:36:52
I hardly ever you wanna play a total of 56 or better or higher, I should say, not better.
00:37:00
Hire.
00:37:01
I hardly ever wanna play that over and I don't wanna play this one over.
00:37:04
I got it.
00:37:05
I feel like it should go over based on the eye test.
00:37:08
But this line, at this point, the books have caught up.
00:37:11
And so that's why if if I were to do anything with that total, it be under.
00:37:15
So that's that's one where I just kind of I'm curious to see how this game plays on.
00:37:19
And a lot of these games with these high totals like that this week.
00:37:23
Yeah, I mean, that is such a high number.
00:37:25
It's like, you know, you could have you could have a game that's like, let's see if I could do my quick, quick math like 31 to 24 which is still a pretty decently high scoring game, and that that would still hit the under, I believe, right, so that's how high this line is exactly.
00:37:39
So that's that's a bit scary.
00:37:41
Um, it'll be interesting.
00:37:43
It's a C.
00:37:45
What actually ends up happening as far as public money when when the game kicks off.
00:37:49
But like we've said, people love their overs.
00:37:52
Um, many people, especially not sharp betters, um, aren't aren't gonna be scared.
00:37:57
A lot of people like to see a I'm gonna go, like, you know, like maybe if this line was only like, 49 or something, they'd be like, Why is the line so low? That's weird.
00:38:09
But like 56 they're like, Yeah, hammer it.
00:38:11
It's gonna be a shootout blah, blah blah.
00:38:12
So it's like, I don't know, there's so many different thought processes, processes that go into this, especially for the casual better, which again you have to always remember, like when you're talking data ****ysis and sharp betting and everything.
00:38:25
Ah, majority of money comes in on people that are just betting on a whim, just betting because they think they know something or betting because they're a fan of the team or whatever.
00:38:33
So that's always the thing to remember with gambling, like there is your sharp money there is your sharp ****ysis and stuff.
00:38:39
But then a majority of it is just people throwing money at the wall.
00:38:42
So overs and lines and totals like I felt like an idiot for not taking the over on Thursday, like 41 with I don't care if, like how bad the quarterbacks are.
00:38:57
Whatever.
00:38:58
Like points, it's still the NFL.
00:38:59
It's not like they're going to go out like and it's not gonna be 10 to 6 or 13 to 10 like it's very rare to get a game like that unless it's an actual, you know, um, high level competitive defensive game, which is just not what we were going to get on Thursday.
00:39:15
So, man, like you said that that totals flew over.
00:39:18
I felt like an idiot.
00:39:19
Like, How do you not take the over on the 41 line between the teams like that? Man, I just I don't know. I felt dumb.
00:39:26
I was on the wrong side Thursday and I really don't want to get into it.
00:39:29
Yeah, wrong side waas.
00:39:31
And that was my jet, so Yeah, Well, yeah, I mean, and the Jets.
00:39:37
Yeah, that's too. Oh, boy.
00:39:40
Let's just skip over them.
00:39:41
But you have to be.
00:39:43
You have to beat the Broncos in that spot.
00:39:44
You have to, and yet they were not able to.
00:39:48
But we will continue moving forward.
00:39:50
Uh, talking about the Arizona Cardinals in the Carolina Panthers.
00:39:54
This is another game that I mean, not thio.
00:40:01
Uh, thought out ****ysis Here.
00:40:03
It's just simply I like the Cardinals offense against the Panthers Defense.
00:40:11
Panthers offensive.
00:40:14
Ah, pretty good offense against the bad defense versus a pretty good defense against a very average offense.
00:40:20
Uh oh, you're only needing to cover by a field goal if you're Arizona.
00:40:25
I think not that they got embarrassed by the Lions because it wasn't, You know, it was a close, close game the whole time, but I think that they have a bit of a bounce back week.
00:40:34
I think that the Panthers are slightly overrated right now just because they have been able to stay in games.
00:40:39
But again, we came in.
00:40:41
Don't forget, we came into this season talking about how the Panthers are going to be one of the worst teams in the league are gonna be in the running for Trevor Lawrence like don't forget who the Panthers actually are at the end of the day s o I like the Arizona Cardinals minus three here, uh, total that I've got on draftkings as 51 a half.
00:41:01
Yeah, different once a lot of 50 ones and a half and a couple 52.
00:41:09
Uh, this one open 3.
00:41:10
5.
00:41:11
And like Jake said, it isn't even feel terrible right now.
00:41:14
I don't have a play on this game.
00:41:15
Uh, to your point, though, saying Carolina's overrated.
00:41:18
I think Arizona is still overrated right now in terms of the betting market of public perception.
00:41:25
You know, last week I saw it coming.
00:41:28
I don't know, and I don't like to toot my own horn, and I'm by no means trying to do that here.
00:41:34
It just felt like the classic spot.
00:41:36
And I didn't see three picks from Kyler Murray coming, and I don't think that will happen again.
00:41:41
Aziz, that is the Lions defense is I think the Panthers defense is somehow worse.
00:41:46
Uh, but, you know, Arizona is gonna be one of those teams where they have a couple of nice winds.
00:41:54
Everybody gets excited.
00:41:56
And then last week, a game that they're favored.
00:41:58
By what? That line close.
00:41:59
Probably around 5 5.
00:42:00
5, I think. Right.
00:42:02
5 5.
00:42:03
5 is Yeah, yeah, and they go out and lose it outright.
00:42:06
So, uh, coming west to east.
00:42:09
I can't back the cardinals here.
00:42:11
That's a That's a long road trip.
00:42:15
This is a home game for them.
00:42:16
Eso I'm scared off of the spread looking at the total.
00:42:22
You know, again it feels like it should go over, and I almost want to play it under what we thought of Carolina last week.
00:42:28
I know the Chargers air not quite as explosive oven offense as Arizona.
00:42:33
Is the defense out of their own? Uh, not too bad.
00:42:38
Arizona's got a lot of injuries in the secondary.
00:42:41
That's gonna be something to keep a nigh on here going into this week's game, Uh, I think Teddy Bridgewater and company should be able to move the ball against them.
00:42:53
And that's something that worries me if I'm a Cardinals backer or an under backer, because I think the Cardinals should be able to put up points as well.
00:43:01
Uh, Jake, do you have anything else on this? There's one other name.
00:43:04
I wanna look up and just make sure I get his story right here for this morning.
00:43:08
Yeah, I just think the other thing that you should consider, especially if you're thinking about about the over because I kind of like the under here, too, is that I think the Cardinals, they're going to score points.
00:43:18
But the Panthers have had trouble the last two weeks scoring points, and it's because they played good defense is in Week one.
00:43:25
They played against the Raiders, who have a trash defense.
00:43:28
Andi, Obviously, they had Christian McCaffrey in Week one as well.
00:43:31
They were able to put 30 points on the board the last two weeks without Christian McCaffrey and against good offenses.
00:43:37
They scored 70.
00:43:38
Excuse me against good defense is they scored 17 against the Buccaneers and just 16 against the Chargers.
00:43:43
The Cardinals have a good defense.
00:43:45
Uh, maybe not as good as the Buccaneers.
00:43:47
Probably on par with the Chargers, with all the injuries that the Chargers have right now.
00:43:52
But I just don't see a lot of points, E.
00:43:55
I mean, if you get to 20 points this weekend as the Panthers, you're doing pretty good, Andi.
00:44:00
I think the Cardinals were going to be able to put out more than that.
00:44:02
Obviously, I think that the letdown game came for the chart for the Cardinals last week against a team in the Lions who is better than the Panthers.
00:44:11
So I don't really see to let down weeks coming like that again, within.
00:44:24
Doable for the Cardinals here, who again? I think they had their letdown game last weekend against a little bit better team in the lion's.
00:44:29
I don't think Panthers really are gonna be able to do too much on offense against the Cardinals, so I think if the Cardinals score, UH, 24 points arm or in this game, but I think they win and cover both.
00:44:42
So a couple of things I'll throw counter arguments this point.
00:44:48
Arizona's defense, like you said they are and adjusted efficiency right now through the first three weeks, solid against both the run and the past.
00:45:05
The big thing I wanna look at here, though, and you let me know if this impacts your decision any Christian Kirk missed last week.
00:45:16
I do believe I have that right and he's a game time decision again this week.
00:45:21
The other Cardinals receiver is a game time decision.
00:45:23
Is DeAndre Hopkins on? That would be a bigness if he's unable to go.
00:45:28
It's an ankle injury for Hopkins.
00:45:32
Let's see here, looking at practice reports throughout the week, he was not at the open portion for media availability.
00:45:45
Um, if there is no DeAndre Hopkins, that definitely has to throw Wrinkle into Arizona is looking to do offensively here.
00:45:54
And, you know, like I said, that banged up secondary.
00:45:57
I don't have the exact names and who is hurt right now I could try and find those.
00:46:01
Um, there's just too much going on here, injury wise and especially if Hopkins is out, I don't wanna have.
00:46:09
I guess I'll say I don't wanna have money on the Cardinals and come to regret that is how I'm approaching this game.
00:46:16
So it's a path for me.
00:46:18
Um, but, uh, well, I guess, Let me ask you a question.
00:46:22
What would Hopkins being out of this game? What would that do to you if you already had a Cardinals bet? Or let's say it's an hour before kickoff.
00:46:31
DeAndre Hopkins is out.
00:46:33
How are you approaching this line.
00:46:35
Assuming it stays at three, I'd probably just be off the game then.
00:46:39
I mean, down for happens is a difference maker.
00:46:41
It's especially without Kirk out there.
00:46:43
I mean, he is, um, the high light of this Cardinals offense right now.
00:46:48
Obviously, you could argue Kyler Murray, but DeAndre Hopkins didn't go out and throw three interceptions last week.
00:46:53
So I would say, DeAndre Hopkins is probably the pivotal point of this office.
00:47:01
No, I don't I don't like this bet.
00:47:02
I'm not locked into a bet with the Cardinals right now.
00:47:05
Um, so I think if you are interested in betting this game, which I am, a long as those guys are ready to g o, I'd say Wait all the way up until 10 minutes to kick off the lock in your bet.
00:47:16
Then, once you know who's playing and who's not.
00:47:19
And if if there's no Deandra happens, take that 10 bucks or whatever your unit is, and put it elsewhere, or just or just save it.
00:47:27
You know, I think Deandra have.
00:47:28
I think, a bet on the Cardinals without DeAndre Hopkins is slight, slightly foolish, no matter who they're playing against.
00:47:33
But I think DeAndre Hopkins.
00:47:35
We'll find a way to G o.
00:47:36
Um I mean, you don't want start off, too, and, Oh, and be one of the hot teams everybody's talking about.
00:47:43
And then just all of a sudden, a couple weeks later, you're two and two because your best player couldn't couldn't make the make it onto the field.
00:47:50
I think Hopkins gonna find a way to push through and play how impactful he will be.
00:47:55
You know, I guess that's that's to be seen.
00:47:57
But just having him out on the field, he's just one of those guys, you know, having him out on the field, Having him dressed up just does, uh, does immensely mawr for your team.
00:48:07
It takes away your top coverage by the defense, all that kind of stuff.
00:48:11
So Hopkins is the difference maker here.
00:48:13
I will give you that.
00:48:16
Yeah, I guess it's just concerning for May, and obviously we hope everyone can play through injuries and be out there if they were able to.
00:48:23
He didn't practice all week, though, Uh, Larry, for sure.
00:48:29
There was a full practice Friday, popped up on the injury report, though, and then Kirk was limited Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
00:48:36
I don't know it.
00:48:37
Za tough called determine whether he'll be out there and then as far as the Cardinals secondary, Drakkar Patrick, no practice Friday.
00:48:45
He's questionable.
00:48:46
And then, UH, two safeties Buddha Baker and Chris Van Joe both did not practice all week and are both already ruled out for this game.
00:48:56
That's concerning.
00:48:57
And I know they're Carolina's offense.
00:49:01
It's it's first year here with that rule.
00:49:04
There's a lot of moving parts.
00:49:05
Christian McCaffrey's not there.
00:49:06
I think Mike Davis has stepped in and really done well for him.
00:49:09
I'm not necessarily concerning there, but when you have field stretcher like Robby Anderson, you got a guy who can basically run fourth till down the field or work across the middle wide receiver.
00:49:24
I think the Panthers going to get there is in this game, Uh, and I think you know, it's It's been minimal line movement on Carolina, down from 3.
00:49:32
5, opening to three now across the board.
00:49:36
But and it's this one's this one's Skerry.
00:49:40
Given the injury concerns.
00:49:42
I think for Arizona, so definitely I think we're in agreement.
00:49:46
If you are interested in betting this game.
00:49:48
Wait until closer to kick off.
00:49:50
No reason to gambling is the definition of gambling.
00:49:57
If you do lock in a bet on the Cardinals here tonight, just wait so closer to kick off time when you have more information and your money will be better off moving on to.
00:50:10
Aziz were still got two games to go in the noon slate and before we move into the afternoon.
00:50:17
But it's the Vikings versus the Houston Texans.
00:50:22
I think I'm going to go against my word.
00:50:25
I think I'm gonna go against myself and actually bet on the Texans this game.
00:50:29
Um, I think the Texans off fence is set up.
00:50:33
Thio, expose this Vikings defense.
00:50:36
I just I mean, we've seen how bad the Vikings defense Viking secondary in general has been.
00:50:42
Um, actually, I like Randall Cobb is a flex play this week.
00:50:46
Uh, quite a bit, actually.
00:50:48
A Randall Cobb has 154 yards, nine catches and a touchdown across the last two weeks.
00:50:55
Um, so that's just something that to keep in mind I don't like the Vikings.
00:51:01
I think they're extremely overrated.
00:51:02
I think they're probably now with Nick Foles, probably the worst team in the NFC North, especially with the Lions looking like they have the ability to surge a little bit now.
00:51:13
3.
00:51:14
5 points would like it better if it was three, but I don't I think it's gonna end up being that close of a game anyhow, unless the Vikings actually can click offensively because I'm not a big fan of the Houston Texans defense.
00:51:26
I'm just not anybody that has, you know, watched any of our content or listen to me knows I'm not a fan of the Texans across the board, but I think this is just, ah, a situational.
00:51:36
But for me, I like them in this spot against the Vikings.
00:51:38
So give me some of that minus 3.
00:51:40
5 for the Houston Texans, another high total 53 a half on this game.
00:51:47
I'm completely in agreement.
00:51:48
I did an article on this game as well.
00:51:50
You can check out over a flurry sports that organ and the pick, uh, to round out that article.
00:51:54
Spoiler alert Texans minus 3.5.
00:51:57
I like Houston a lot in this game.
00:51:59
Both teams aero in three.
00:52:00
Both teams are obviously desperate for a win.
00:52:03
The Vikings have shown me nothing.
00:52:05
Thio make me feel confident in backing them.
00:52:07
Other than Thea offense actually came to play last week, and I think that Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson Connection.
00:52:13
That's gonna be something to watch.
00:52:15
And also a key for Minnesota here, even beyond this year.
00:52:19
Uh, you know, if this team climbs back into more of a contender level status, trading away digs.
00:52:27
Jefferson was the first round pick, the guy who was supposed to come in and fill that role.
00:52:30
So last week, that was definitely encouraging.
00:52:33
If you are a Vikings backer, I think Jefferson's legit.
00:52:37
I like I like him a lot.
00:52:38
I think he's a good and he's really good, good young player.
00:52:41
Yeah, 100%.
00:52:42
You get the assets for digs.
00:52:44
I mean, I think you know, long as Jefferson pans out, I think that was all around for what shall issue as well, getting back to this game.
00:52:57
The line opened it four out in Vegas and it actually saw different movement throughout the week.
00:53:03
It jumped up.
00:53:04
I believe Houston got up to his high.
00:53:07
I want to say it's 5.
00:53:08
5, maybe even six early on in the week, and it's been just kind of trending back down.
00:53:14
Sent fours.
00:53:16
So we're back to the opening line.
00:53:18
Fours and a few 3.
00:53:19
5 out on the Las Vegas market for this game.
00:53:25
I, you know, with line movement going back in favor of the Vikings.
00:53:30
Uh, how concerning is that? I guess for me, it's just not.
00:53:35
I think the Shawn Watson is gonna have a field day with this secondary.
00:53:41
David Johnson been getting good run.
00:53:42
Duke Johnson might even be back for this game.
00:53:44
How big of a role play, but it's just another pass catcher there.
00:53:49
We've seen the Texans.
00:53:50
They're starred for someone to kind of step up and really take over a bigger role with, uh, the aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins No longer in this offense, it just hasn't happened yet.
00:54:02
Uh, those were interesting stats you throughout on Randall Cobb will be excited to see how he does this game.
00:54:07
I'm not dead.
00:54:09
I'm not off Will Fuller entirely just yet.
00:54:13
Speaking of Will Fuller in that article I wrote on this game of Fleury Sports, or GTA, hold up a ****** knife fight prop for this game.
00:54:26
And I'm going to give this to you, Jake, and we'll see where you're coming in on this s o.
00:54:31
You have to pick all four.
00:54:32
Correct.
00:54:33
It's more or less. And they're all player yardage totals.
00:54:35
Okay, if you do pick four out of four, correct over a ****** knife fight on this prop, you're gonna win eight times you're buying, so there's high stakes here.
00:54:44
And remember, if you sign up with ****** knife fight and use the promo code flurry, you get a matching $50 up to matching deposit up to $50.
00:54:57
There we owe and $53 just for signing up.
00:55:00
So if you sign up, you deposit 50 bucks, you're gonna have $105 to play within your account.
00:55:06
That's right.
00:55:07
Thank you, Jake. You're saving me butchering the promo.
00:55:09
But anyway, so if we go in and I'm not suggesting you put all of your free $50 on this one drop, you'll probably want to play it in other areas as well.
00:55:19
But we have the Shawn Watson over under 285 and a half passing yards.
00:55:25
We've got Kurt Cousins over under 263 and a half.
00:55:28
Passing yards will follow her over unders 72 a half receiving yards and Dalvin cook over under 80.
00:55:36
5 rushing yards.
00:55:38
Jake, I know you touched on the secondary is both being bad in this game.
00:55:41
I agree.
00:55:42
I was deflated to see Houston did not sign Earl Thomas this week over concerns about what he would do to the locker room.
00:55:49
Which when your secondary is that bad, I don't know if I agree with that decision.
00:55:54
But anyway, where do you stand on this ****** knife fight? Problem? Um, well, without looking into it too deeply, I think I would dio I think I would go over on everything except for Kirk Cousin passing Kirk cousins passing yards.
00:56:14
I think I might go.
00:56:15
Wait, What's the number on cousins again? Passing yards.
00:56:18
Let me get that for you.
00:56:19
2 to 60.5.
00:56:23
Sure. Yeah, I'll go under.
00:56:25
Kirk Cousins so far has 623 total passing yards across three games, so he's averaging 207 So you you've got a you know, about a 50 yard cushion there, and I, of course I do like to have, you know, I do like to have uncooked Thio have played a huge part in this game, but I'll say under on Kirk Cousins over on their other three.
00:56:50
That's without any deep ****ysis.
00:56:53
I guess that's probably where I would go.
00:56:55
And that is exactly how I broke that prop down.
00:56:59
I believe in the article, uh, to your point about Kirk Cousins, um, and the average.
00:57:06
And you kind of did quick math there that I could do my head.
00:57:08
But yeah, he has yet to throw for that yardage amount in any game this season.
00:57:12
And just looking at last week, you know, put up 30 points and he had the big day.
00:57:17
Justin Jefferson had what 100 35 yards receiving still did not hit that number.
00:57:21
So as bad as this Houston secondary is, I think think the Texans might be able to generate some pass rush up front.
00:57:29
Eso Yeah, I was over on the three out of the four, and way basically saw that the same way I will try and pull up that referral link.
00:57:37
Four ****** knife fight on.
00:57:40
Believe that in the chat here as Jake goes on to the next game.
00:57:44
Yeah, ****** knife fight.
00:57:46
If you haven't heard of it, go check it out.
00:57:47
We can promote all we want, but until you just kind of go scan through their website and see how awesome, uh, their platform is.
00:57:54
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00:57:57
So go check it out.
00:57:58
If you sign up, make sure you use promo code.
00:58:09
It is the Jacksonville Jaguars versus Cincinnati Bangles.
00:58:12
I'm actually really looking forward to watching this game.
00:58:15
I believe the line has moved, um, towards Jacksonville a little bit.
00:58:20
I think the Bengals at one point and Henry will have this information for sure.
00:58:24
But I think the Bengals openness three point favorites there now.
00:58:27
2.5 point favorites.
00:58:29
The total is 49.
00:58:31
This total scares me because, really, I mean both both of these offenses could be, I don't know.
00:58:38
They're just unpredictable for me at this point.
00:58:40
With two very young quarterbacks under center, I think it'll be a fun game to watch overall, and I think the Bengals are primed to get their first win here 2.5.
00:58:51
So inside of a field goal, I'll take the Bengals.
00:58:54
Just, um, just because I think they're gonna win the game and there's more value with the 2.
00:59:00
5 than there is with the minus 1 30 on the money line.
00:59:04
S o.
00:59:05
I would ruin Bangles here, even though I don't really have a strong lean either way.
00:59:09
What do you got on this game, Henry? Man, this is a classic case of a team being overvalued based on what they did the first two weeks, right, The Jaguars air field goal favorites against Miami at home Thursday Night Football.
00:59:22
They get smacked, and now they turn around and go back to their underdog role against Cincinnati.
00:59:27
Who? Yeah, they tied last week.
00:59:28
But there you have to have a wind.
00:59:30
So Jacksonville's got one more wind than Cincinnati.
00:59:33
The line is correct here.
00:59:34
The Jaguars are actually taking a little money.
00:59:37
It opened a field goal out in the desert on git is 2.
00:59:41
5 across the board.
00:59:42
There's one little three hanging on at wind currently, and it's a +105 watts.
00:59:49
So that is soon to be gone as well.
00:59:51
So the Jaguars getting a little bit of action there on the spread where the day actions been on this game is the total.
00:59:56
This total opened 44 it is sense sped up 49 49 a half.
01:00:03
You have those still out in the Vegas market? Uh, there's a lot of ways you can look at this.
01:00:11
The Jaguars defense is not good.
01:00:13
I think we all know that if I pull up adjusted efficiencies for both.
01:00:17
Defense is, though, we got Jacksonville down at number 29 in the NFL.
01:00:23
They are top 10 though, against the run, so I don't see a whole lot of Joe Mixon in this game for Cincinnati.
01:00:30
Of course, the Bengals have not been really been getting a lot of production out of him is fixed.
01:00:33
It's fantasy owners would know right now, and you know, I'll ask you that question.
01:00:39
I guess after I finish up this this whole spiel Jake.
01:00:41
It's more fantasy related than betting, but back to defensive efficiency.
01:00:45
Cincinnati is top 10 overall there, number nine number eight against the past and not quote is good against the run.
01:00:52
Bengals defense is sneaky.
01:00:53
Good, I think, compared to what a lot of people thought coming into the year, given how bad the Jacksonville offensive line is, I like Cincinnati a lot in this game.
01:01:03
I think that with the 2.
01:01:04
5 the line movement down to 2.
01:01:06
5, that makes me in, enticed your toe that Cincinnati on this game, the threes, the 3.
01:01:13
5 that might have been out there during the week.
01:01:16
It was kind of take it or leave it.
01:01:18
But going back to the total of the point, I was ultimately trying to make them all over the place here.
01:01:22
This movements too far.
01:01:24
I don't wanna bet this game over 49 I don't even know if I want to get it over 48.
01:01:29
At that point you're looking at, if we split down the middle, both teams need to score 24 plus points.
01:01:36
I don't know that I see that happening.
01:01:38
I really don't I know James Robinson is emerging for the Jaguars.
01:01:42
I know Gardner Minshew in June mania.
01:01:45
It can happen at any moment when we least expect it.
01:01:49
Uh, I just don't see it in this one.
01:01:53
And I think for that reason and also Jacksonville success defending the run, I could see a situation where, you know, the Bengals put up points that maybe it takes a little while for job er on the passing game to get it going in this one s o, I would be looking if I were at this game, just vastly better poll of 49 we've been talking about The books are moving their totals up this week based off the highest scoring games the first three weeks.
01:02:24
And here you have a total that opens at 44 it gets that up 5 5.5 points.
01:02:29
That's that's too far for me.
01:02:31
And I want to counter play that.
01:02:32
I think if I'm attacking this game and the fantasy question, leave myself.
01:02:40
I've been trying to decide what to do.
01:02:42
Um, I selling low on Joe Mixon or my riding this out as an owner.
01:02:46
And if I'm not a mixing owner, is there any Bilodeau intrigued for you as a non owner? I'm not really too interested in bringing in Joe Mixon.
01:02:59
Um, I just think there's other guys who you could probably get in a trade for about the same price.
01:03:06
Or it might even be a guy that you could get off the waiver wire.
01:03:09
Still, that's like doing something near Well, Joe Mixon is doing.
01:03:12
I just wouldn't be comfortable giving up too much for for mixing, Um, if you could sell them them on and get even.
01:03:19
You know something for him.
01:03:20
Even a tight end like a reliable tight end, because tight end has been such a difficult position to predict this year and such a, you know, all over the place.
01:03:28
If you could get if you could get a, uh, every week type of player for Joe Mix, and I'm definitely styling him right now, I have, um no, no problem with that, really? Because I think as as Joe Burrow gets better, and as this young receiving corps continues to develop and get better, I think that the focus is gonna be more on Joe Burrow more on passing the ball less on Joe Mixon, less on running the ball.
01:03:53
So I don't have Joe Mixon in any leagues.
01:03:56
This year, so I thankfully, don't really have to.
01:04:05
Anyways, he's one of those guys woke up 15 1 Week 18 next week and then two weeks after for the next two weeks.
01:04:11
After that, he'll put up four or five points like that's just been him throughout his entire career.
01:04:16
Eso I would say, if you could get something for him, get in every week, type of starter.
01:04:20
I definitely move them.
01:04:22
Um, but as far as bringing him in, I don't really have much interest in and bringing them in.
01:04:26
But I do like after everything you said, I do like the under 49.
01:04:30
Um, definitely.
01:04:31
Because like you said, I mean, I don't have to be a 2025 to 24 game and you're you're hitting that post right there.
01:04:39
I don't I don't see it either.
01:04:41
Um, I think, obviously, Joe Burrow has.
01:04:44
He's taking some licks in these first few weeks, and he's stood in there taking it like a man like he looks really, really good.
01:04:51
Gardner Minshew obviously had a big old ah big old goose egg in a game was a week to very good.
01:04:59
So I mean the potential of the potential to score is always there, of course, but, I mean, I just don't see this is a 24 25 type point point effort for each of these teams.
01:05:12
Either on, like you said.
01:05:13
Yeah, and he totally gets better up five points.
01:05:16
Like I'm pretty much gonna be on the opposite end of that unless you get in.
01:05:20
You know, if you if you get in on the movement when it has moved one out of five points.
01:05:25
But if you get in on the opposite side when it's already moved five points, I mean, that's the danger zone, man.
01:05:30
You're playing with fire right there.
01:05:32
Yeah, both offensive lines.
01:05:33
I didn't even touch on Cincinnati's offensive line.
01:05:35
That's a good point to Uber has been killed.
01:05:37
Eso they're not gonna be able to run the ball very effectively, giving a bad offensive line in a piece of Jaguar of defense.
01:05:43
That kind of falls in line with how I'm thinking here.
01:05:46
Cincinnati will get theirs.
01:05:47
But it's not gonna be as much as I think people would like to think, because it might take a minute in this one, so yeah, honestly, the opening line of 44.
01:05:58
To me, that feels like the one where I would have a tougher decision to make if I were gonna bet the total then this new line of 49 this is under all day.
01:06:08
And I'm gonna be curious to see if this gets a little buyback before kickoff.
01:06:11
Potentially tomorrow.
01:06:12
Yeah, this game smells like a 21 16 23 17 type of game.
01:06:19
Somewhere in there? Yeah, for sure.
01:06:22
Um, so, yeah, I think that's pretty much all we got on that game.
01:06:26
I did come up with another little Kirk cousins, stat.
01:06:29
Going back to the last game really quick, especially if you are interested in that ****** knife fight promo.
01:06:36
Kirk Cousins has thrown 25 26 27 passes in all three of these games, so let's say he's even on the upper end of that 27 passes.
01:06:46
In order to hit that to 60 threshold, he would have toe average 9.
01:06:51
62 yards per attempt, which is pretty high, especially for Kirk Cousins.
01:06:58
Um, so, yeah, I'm comfortably, I think after knowing that I'm comfortably on the under as far as that Kirk cousins, Prop goes.
01:07:06
Just wanted to throw that out there.
01:07:07
Oh, and by the way, he's only completed in the last two weeks.
01:07:11
11 passes and 16 passes each of the last two games.
01:07:15
So it's not like Kirk Cousins is lighting it up through the air by any means.
01:07:19
Uh, and also, those numbers are pretty swayed because he had 251 yards and three passing touchdowns last week.
01:07:26
Uh, in the week before that, he only had 113 yards through the air and zero passing touchdowns.
01:07:32
So, uh, yeah.
01:07:34
Anyway, those my cousin stats.
01:07:36
What did you have for yards per pass? Exactly that he would have to average.
01:07:43
Yeah, You said 9.
01:07:44
6 9.
01:07:45
62 Yeah, but for your research, uh, NFL quarterback yards per pass thrown, average yards per pass this season.
01:07:59
Number one, Jared Goff, 9.6.
01:08:03
And he's number one.
01:08:05
Number one.
01:08:06
Well, that makes me feel okay.
01:08:08
Yeah, so that makes me feel very good.
01:08:10
You're playing with, like, a 50 yard total.
01:08:12
Um, cushion.
01:08:13
You're playing with over about a yard and a half average cushion s.
01:08:18
Oh, yeah.
01:08:19
Head on over to ****** knife fight Use promo code flurry and hit the under on the cousins passing yards.
01:08:24
That seems like a pretty good one.
01:08:25
Lincoln promo code are in the chat in the chat.
01:08:29
Thank you very much, Henry.
01:08:31
As we I have officially moved out of the noon hour and into the afternoon.
01:08:36
We've got Let's see, 245 total games.
01:08:40
Thio talk about yet as we are nowhere near keeping it within an hour.
01:08:45
But we never are, so Oh, well, we, uh, continue here with the Giants and the Rams.
01:08:52
This was the other big spread that I had alluded to earlier on in the stream.
01:08:57
Rams air 13.
01:08:58
5 point favorites.
01:08:59
Um, some I mean it if you're gonna take the big if you're gonna take the big spread one out of these two big spreads between the Ravens and the Rams, I probably I don't know.
01:09:17
He was about to say I'm probably leaning rams, but now I don't know.
01:09:21
I do like the ramp spread, though 13.
01:09:22
5 the Rams have looked good.
01:09:24
Um, all year, the Giants have looked anything but good.
01:09:28
Um, Daniel Jones, I think is okay.
01:09:32
So I heard.
01:09:33
I heard Ah, crazy stat about Daniel Jones and I I might not get it 100% accurate, but, uh, here it goes.
01:09:41
I think Daniel Jones has started 16 games now in his career in his career.
01:09:45
I believe he's had some sort of turnover in 15 out of those 16 and he has had multiple turnovers in 11 out of the 16 games.
01:09:57
That is not good.
01:09:58
That is really, really, really bad.
01:10:01
Eso I don't like Daniel Jones on the line or excuse me and the Giants here, Um, especially against the Rams, who are a team who are gonna make you pay for turnovers.
01:10:11
They're gonna find a way to put the points on the board, even if it comes in the form of a field goal.
01:10:16
I think the lot or the Rams come out on D score quickly against the Giants.
01:10:21
I like Henderson a lot in that backfield.
01:10:24
Jared Goff, like you said, has the number one average for yards per attempt.
01:10:30
I mean, everything is going well for the Rams this year, whereas everything is going horribly wrong for the Giants.
01:10:35
13.5 points.
01:10:38
Give it to me.
01:10:39
I'll take 13.
01:10:40
5 l A Rams all day total is 48 on this game.
01:10:46
Yeah, the best of this number.
01:10:48
It spread wise is long gone.
01:10:50
It opened it nine out in Vegas and, uh, 13.
01:10:55
That was it.
01:10:56
And it is cut up 14 13.
01:10:58
5 across the board.
01:11:00
And I would just a much assume there's gonna be a little bit mawr movement toward the Rams before kickoff.
01:11:07
Just given public perception of the Giants.
01:11:09
Right now you're talking about Daniel Jones turnovers.
01:11:12
He has a lot of fumble problems, and you just It feels like you breathe on this guy and he's dropping the ball in the backfield.
01:11:18
And, you know, part of me is interested to see how to your work does offensively in this game.
01:11:24
First three games.
01:11:25
Pittsburgh, uh, San Francisco last week and oh, my God, I'm blanking on the one in between.
01:11:32
Who did they lose? The Bears was the three of the NFL's best defense.
01:11:35
Is that while the Rams, I think, have a very good defense, Very talented, obviously, Aaron Donald being the star of that unit, I don't know that they match the other three that the Giants have played in terms of, you know, overall team continuity, team defensive success.
01:11:53
I should put the just inefficiencies here.
01:11:56
I will do that in a moment for the Rams, but part of me wants to see if the Giants do do a little bit better offensively in this game.
01:12:03
With that, said New York's offensive line, just look so bad.
01:12:07
I could see her on Donald having a field backfield and blows in Daniel Jones direction balls.
01:12:15
It's gonna be on the ground.
01:12:17
So, like you said this Rams defense, they've done it over the years, and there's plenty capable of doing it here this year as well.
01:12:23
Just arriving off of turnovers.
01:12:25
Uh, I don't see the Giants hanging in this game at all.
01:12:31
I think this is a clear Rams win.
01:12:33
I've been higher on the Rams that a lot of people coming into the year Ram should really be 30 right now if not for a *** Regis pass interference called into that game against the Bills last week.
01:12:44
Uh, so I think this offense is just gonna go to town against this brutal giant secondary to put it kindly, I guess for them and the big thing for the Rams to the running game getting established.
01:12:59
Uh, that was what was missing in this office last year, and it was all on the shoulders of Jared Goff.
01:13:04
And whether it's Gerald Henderson or Malcolm Brown, or can makers get back in, the mix is well, going forward.
01:13:10
That's huge.
01:13:11
If Los Angeles is able to run the football, that's like, you know, the backbone of this offense.
01:13:15
So very encouraging there, looking at the total for this game.
01:13:21
Got it. A 48 48 a half.
01:13:23
Uh, man, you know, it's one where I feel like I want to bet it under.
01:13:28
And then I could just see, like, a stupid backdoor cover to the over s.
01:13:32
So I think that the total there is a past I think this game in general has got to be a pass for me.
01:13:37
I don't really have a play on it.
01:13:38
Um, given the new line of 13 that opening line of nine, the Ottomans fashion the rand's all day.
01:13:44
Yeah, I wish I would have seen that.
01:13:45
I would have put my life savings into that. Jeez.
01:13:48
Yeah, That was out in Las Vegas, where I feel like they tend to open we bit earlier than the rest of the country.
01:13:55
Adjusted efficiency.
01:13:56
Defensively, the Rams are ranked 21st in the league, 12th against the past and 25th against the run. Of course.
01:14:05
No, say, Guan Barkley.
01:14:06
Monte Freeman might have a bigger role of this game is the second week with the Giants.
01:14:09
So I guess do with those numbers what you will, bro.
01:14:16
I have a stat for you.
01:14:18
Are you ready for this? This is even more mind blowing than my than the Daniel Jones stat.
01:14:23
I just gave you, uh, as I mentioned and I was right 16 16 games.
01:14:28
He's got at least one turnover in 15 of those 16.
01:14:31
He's got multiple turnovers in 11 of those 16.
01:14:35
Now, listen to this.
01:14:36
When we break down the turnovers Daniel Jones in his career, this is just This is amazing to me.
01:14:42
In his career, which has only been 16 games, has a total of what the heck, I just had it here.
01:14:49
Alright has a total of 16 interceptions, so he's averaging one for every single game that he's ever played in 16 interceptions He has wanting from BLE Student.
01:15:01
20 fumbles, No.
01:15:03
16 interceptions, 20 fumbles he has.
01:15:07
He's two for two and lost fumbles this year, so he has two fumbles this year.
01:15:10
Both of them have been lost.
01:15:12
Last year over the span of 13 games, he fumbled 18 times, lost 11 of them.
01:15:18
So he has lost 13 fumbles on 20 actual fumbles and has thrown 16 interceptions.
01:15:25
So that's 29 turnovers that he's created over the course of 16 games.
01:15:33
29.
01:15:34
And he fumbled the ball seven more times on top of that, that they were lucky enough to get on 29 times.
01:15:41
Dude, and this guy, this this New York offensive line is not gonna be.
01:15:47
I'm sorry, Erin.
01:15:49
Donald's gonna be in the backfield at some point on Sunday, and you know, to my point of just, you know, you feel it feels like you breathe on Daniel Johnson.
01:15:57
He drops the football, man.
01:16:00
There could be multiple more falls on the ground, I think, uh, on site, being a jets and pretty much being all in on the hashtag tranq for Trevor.
01:16:12
Hashtag lose for Lawrence movement.
01:16:15
After Thursday, we're talking about Washington, maybe being a sneaky candidate to grab Lawrence.
01:16:20
At least you were.
01:16:21
The Giants cannot be ruled out of this conversation, and I know it's only a second year in the league.
01:16:28
But assuming Dave Gettleman might be on the outs here fairly soon, what will new regime want to Dio? And that was another part of the Washington conversation around a barrel coming in.
01:16:37
You gotta get your guy right.
01:16:39
If Daniel Jones plenty of talent on that offense, it is not clicked.
01:16:48
I don't think in that regard at all, and part of that has to go on him and all these turnovers as well.
01:16:54
Uh, I really could see the Giants and the Jets picking 12 in this draft and strength of schedule wise.
01:17:03
You know, I'm not saying we're both going to go on 16 but if we do the strength of Schedule Edge as being the worst team would have to be the Giants, right, playing in the n, F C East and uh, not playing through the n, f c and N f C West.
01:17:15
So well, we speak football team wants or something, you know e Well, and I think you're totally right.
01:17:22
All the arguments I made for Ron Rivera are you know, they're even more amplified for Joe Judge.
01:17:27
And he fits that Cliff Kingsbury comparison even better, Uh, than you know, the one that I threw out there.
01:17:33
Even better than, uh, riverboat Ron does.
01:17:36
I mean, a new guy and a big time.
01:17:39
Um uh, franchise, Tons of media, everything like that.
01:17:44
You're already already stuck.
01:17:46
You already gonna get slaughtered.
01:17:47
You might as well do it with the guy that you want as quarterback.
01:17:50
Not the guy that you were given, you know, um, but, man Daniels, those numbers of our mind, But I'm just a little comparison.
01:18:00
Um, So again, Daniel Jones fumbles 20 fumbles in his 16 year career.
01:18:06
13 of them lost.
01:18:07
Aaron Rodgers since 2005 has 18 total fumbles.
01:18:12
13 of them lost.
01:18:13
That's it.
01:18:14
He's lost 13 fumbles since 2000 and five, and he had five more.
01:18:18
That hasn't been recovered.
01:18:19
Aaron Rodgers also has a total of 84 interceptions.
01:18:23
So 84 That's 94.
01:18:25
He has ah, 102 turnovers.
01:18:29
And since 2005 total 102.
01:18:32
Daniel Jones has 30 and 16 games.
01:18:35
It's that's brutal.
01:18:38
That's brutal.
01:18:39
That's that's really bad.
01:18:40
So, yeah, I don't know if Daniel zones.
01:18:42
You know there are good things about him.
01:18:45
He can, you know, when he throws the ball, it looks all right.
01:18:48
But, man, you cannot win with a guy who turns the ball over an average of twice a game.
01:18:53
Especially, you know, I guess it's just I mean, Giants fans already know this were telling that we're not telling them anything that they don't know.
01:19:01
But Daniel Jones? That's his biggest knock.
01:19:04
Obviously incredible amount of turnovers.
01:19:08
Mind blowing, mind blowing anyways, taking the Rams in this game, uh, just to bring it full circle there.
01:19:16
Rams minus 13.
01:19:17
5 is what I'll be on Colts versus Bears.
01:19:21
This is another interesting game.
01:19:22
A ton of the even field goal games this week, week starting for the Bears, for as the kids like to call him Vidic.
01:19:35
Nick, Um, that being a nick falls, uh, playing for their dogs on Where did my draftkings go? Here.
01:19:46
Still three point underdogs to the Colts.
01:19:48
Um, it's not like the Colts have been you know, dominant.
01:19:51
Either they are too and one, but had to sc**** by to get one of those victories.
01:19:56
Bears are three, you know, on Lee a three point total.
01:20:01
Um, excuse me.
01:20:02
Three point spread in this game with a 43 point total.
01:20:06
How do you read this game here? Well, this game got moved, I believe right from the one o'clock window with the cancer. The postponement.
01:20:16
Rather, I should say, uh, Patriots chiefs.
01:20:19
Correct me if I'm wrong.
01:20:20
Right? This game wasn't well, Yeah.
01:20:21
Yeah, I got moved to the four o'clock window.
01:20:23
Or otherwise, they would have only been, I think, three games.
01:20:25
Three games total.
01:20:26
Now there's four.
01:20:28
Yeah or no.
01:20:29
Excuse me, There would have been two games total.
01:20:31
And now there's three.
01:20:33
Right? Okay. Yeah, that makes sense.
01:20:35
And one of those games have been giants.
01:20:36
Rams.
01:20:37
Which e don't know how many people are gonna be lining up to watch that one.
01:20:40
Yeah.
01:20:41
So out in Las Vegas.
01:20:43
Interesting.
01:20:44
This game opened a pick, and we've got threes across the board with 1 2.
01:20:47
5 at Mirage.
01:20:50
That is the lone holdout, minus 1 20.
01:20:53
So it seems to be going in favor of the cult's.
01:20:56
They're very soon as well.
01:20:58
Total is 43 43 even across the board.
01:21:05
You know, neither team has really been that impressive here the first three weeks.
01:21:09
It seems crazy to say that because the parish in three, you know, they could they could very well be, uh oh.
01:21:15
And three here, uh, to come from behind wins.
01:21:18
That certainly felt miraculous.
01:21:21
And then the game against the Giants there in week two, who we just talked about, They had to get a red zone stop there at the end of that game.
01:21:29
Just Oh, hang on after they blew a halftime lead of their own.
01:21:34
But for me, Nick Foles coming in and taking over the started here, that's gonna make all the difference for this offense.
01:21:38
And I'm really excited to see how it plays out.
01:21:42
Anthony Miller, I think, is going to get a huge boost from this fantasy football players.
01:21:46
If you're out there and listening, that's a guy I'm looking to scoop up.
01:21:50
If he is available in your league, uh, three.
01:21:54
Cohen Chicago lost him for the year.
01:21:59
That that's only gonna b'more work here for David Montgomery and his value boost as well.
01:22:05
Montgomery's a guy I'm just high on in general, both of fantasy and in NFL standpoint.
01:22:09
So I'm excited to see what he does with some or touches.
01:22:12
I really think it's just gonna be a boost of life.
01:22:15
I think Nick Foles fits this Matt Nagy scheme better.
01:22:19
Uh, then Travis Key Everwood.
01:22:21
And I understand the Bears starting the season with him trying Thio one last dish.
01:22:25
Justify using the number two overall pick one Mitchell Stravinsky a few years ago, and it just didn't work out.
01:22:35
Yeah, in case in case the Bears fans out there don't realize this.
01:22:39
I mean, I'm sure you've never heard this before, but both Patrick Mahomes and the Shawn Watson were in that same draft.
01:22:44
I don't know if anyone's ever told you that Bears fans, but you could have had either one of those guys.
01:22:49
Yeah, I believe Lamar Jackson to right.
01:22:51
So, uh, it's crazy.
01:22:55
Um, but anyway, looking at the Colts here just a little bit, I think Jonathan tailored it might be a struggle in this game.
01:23:03
You know, Chicago's defense for all the attention swirling around the spares offense.
01:23:08
Defense continues to impress.
01:23:10
Week in and week out, the Colts want to run the football.
01:23:13
I think they'll go in here looking to make that happen, but it might take a little while.
01:23:18
If I look adjusted numbers for the Bears, running the football would be the way to attack this defense.
01:23:25
They are fourth adjusted efficiency against the past, only 20th against the run eso that could fit right into what the Colts want to dio.
01:23:33
I don't think the last too much of Philip Rivers receivers, Air banged up Paris Campbell, of course, out.
01:23:38
And Michael Pittman, I believe, is missing.
01:23:40
This game is well for the Colts.
01:23:42
I could get his official status here in just a second, so it's gonna be a T y Hilton game as's faras pass catchers go, and he doesn't look great here these first few weeks.
01:23:53
Um, I don't have a strong play on this.
01:23:56
Either way, I almost almost one about 43 over.
01:24:02
If I'm looking at doing this one way, I think it would be over 43 or the Bears catching three.
01:24:09
Uh, nothing really jumping out here.
01:24:11
I guess that'll for me when I look at the lines.
01:24:14
Yeah, I like the Bears catching three as well.
01:24:16
Just because the Colts have not been enough and offense will be good enough to keep it.
01:24:24
Um, but keep it within a one score game the whole time.
01:24:27
Whether that's, you know, seven points or three points, I'm not quite sure, But I think the potential, um to win the game at the end of the game is gonna be there for either one of these teams.
01:24:37
I think it might come down to one of those final drives there with a chance for either one of these teams to actually win the game on that last possession.
01:24:47
That's just it gives.
01:24:48
That's the vibe that I get from from this game here.
01:24:51
And I think I think there's Post three is a pretty good bet.
01:24:56
I could see Nick Foles coming out and leading this team to victory once again.
01:25:00
I don't mind the bears plus 1 28 on the money line either.
01:25:04
Wouldn't throw a ton at that, But hey, not a bad plus money bet.
01:25:09
Um, because you're you're having to give up Thio, get the three points.
01:25:13
You're having to give up.
01:25:16
What is a T O minus 1 21 is where the past three is.
01:25:21
So if you like the Bears in this game, you think the Bears have any chance of winning.
01:25:24
That's obviously a pretty big swing.
01:25:27
That's almost a 50.
01:25:30
The swing of I don't know how how to put this, but the swing from minus 1 21 2 plus 1 28.
01:25:37
That's almost 50.
01:25:38
What is it? What are these? What's what's that even referred to as? Obviously, it's not points, it's not.
01:25:44
How do you even refer to that? I don't know.
01:25:47
Um, learning things live here.
01:25:49
What are you talking about? So I'm talking about, like, how would you phrase like? So I'm talking about the swing between If you bet plus three on the Bears, you have thio.
01:25:59
The payout is minus 1 21 but if you take the money line, the payout is plus 1 28.
01:26:04
So that's a swing.
01:26:05
The numbers.
01:26:06
That's a swing of 50 in there, but I don't know what to say.
01:26:09
Like a swing of 50.
01:26:10
What? It's not swing of 50 points or swing of 50 whatever but the payout is is greater by right.
01:26:18
So you're saying, essentially, you would be Justus comfortable Betting Bears Money line, which I actually am inclined, almost agree with.
01:26:27
You can't open to pick in a sense, move three points.
01:26:31
Uh, almost feels like a little too much for this game, especially with Nick Foles coming in.
01:26:36
That's a boost for Chicago's office. May.
01:26:38
You're saying that's better value than spread essentially right? Yeah, better value.
01:26:42
I just not for sure.
01:26:44
I just don't I'm gonna have to, like, look it up or find somebody that understands what I'm saying toe like, I just don't know, You know, obviously, because you could say, you know, it's ah, if you're getting plus three verses.
01:26:55
If you're laying two points, that's a swing of five points, right? But I don't know how to refer to the swing on the payout like the difference between minus 1 21 and plus 1 28.
01:27:05
Obviously, that's a 20.
01:27:07
That's Ah, 49 something swing 49 dollars.
01:27:12
If you're looking at you know, 100 you're laying 100 to win 100 plus 100.
01:27:17
You're essentially, it's a $49 swing there, I guess to put it in dollar terms, I've never really heard anyone refer to a swing over zero, though in the money line by that route.
01:27:26
But that would be I guess how I would make sense of it, right? Yeah, because, I mean, if you put if you put $100 on plus three, you're gonna get about 80 back.
01:27:35
But if you put $100 on plus 1 28 you're gonna make a new additional $28 on top of that.
01:27:43
Ah, 100.
01:27:45
So I guess it would be, Yeah, it would be a $50 swing, so yeah, thank you.
01:27:49
Definitely a good way to look attacking that game.
01:27:51
And I did pull up the Colts injury poor just Well, Jake was hemming and hawing trying to figure that out.
01:27:56
And I wasn't listening, so we had to re explain it.
01:27:58
On top of that, Michael Pittman is out for this game on T y.
01:28:02
Hilton also did not practice on Friday.
01:28:05
His game status is a simple dash on the injury report right now, so I don't even know who the Colts will have.
01:28:15
A receiver of Hilton cannot dio That might mean a lot of Mohali Cox and Jack Doyle both out of the tight end.
01:28:21
Spot it, that's That's not pretty.
01:28:24
So that makes me like.
01:28:40
And obviously that's just in terms of dollars.
01:28:42
There's a $50 swing there if you're talking between the spread and the money line.
01:28:47
So, uh, I don't know if you want to get a little bit risky.
01:28:50
You believe in the Bears? I would say, Definitely take the money line.
01:28:52
Um, you want to play a little bit safer, Take the points, but, you know, having to give up that minus 1 21 on the points.
01:28:58
I just don't really love that when you could get plus 1 28 on the money line.
01:29:03
Moving on now, just real quick.
01:29:05
Essentially, this credit thing, the Colts, You know, if your it doesn't exactly pan out.
01:29:10
If you do think if you calculate home field advantage mathematically, it's not three points every time.
01:29:15
Essentially, this new spread is saying the culture six points better on a neutral field.
01:29:20
I'm not buying that.
01:29:22
I think they're, you know, the more we've broken this game down looked at the injuries, etcetera, etcetera.
01:29:28
There is some value for me on the Chicago.
01:29:30
They're spread well And look what Nick Foles was able to do.
01:29:34
Not having taken first team reps just stepping in with only half a game to go and being able to orchestrate that. Come back.
01:29:41
Now, if you've got a game script with the ones, everything like that.
01:29:47
I mean, their offense should look, Justus good, if not better, as it looked on it with Nick Foles last week. Right on.
01:29:52
We know what we've gotten out of Philip Rivers and the, uh, Colts offense and then, especially if they have, if they beat up at wide receiver Yeah, like like you said, the more we talked about this, the more that I like the Bears.
01:30:04
So, uh, I don't know, I might bet on both.
01:30:06
I might take the points, just his insurance, But But the money Lina's well, because I do like the Bears in this spot this week against the colt.
01:30:14
Your point about Nick Foles.
01:30:15
He's made kind of a career of pulling rabbits out of the hat.
01:30:18
You know, coming in with teams are that's true last week and then when they've had time, When when you know Nick Foles is gonna be the starter.
01:30:24
It hasn't always worked out Look good. That's true.
01:30:27
That's true.
01:30:28
You know, that's not that's not going to sway me here.
01:30:30
If it's the same story this week, then I you know, who knows? We might see Mitch back in their e Don't want to go there.
01:30:39
That's it Would take some really, really, really awful play by Nick Foles to get Mitch back in there.
01:30:45
Especially like, maddening at this point, it just he probably rip all of his fingernails off and everything else first before before putting ah, mixed Robiskie back in.
01:30:55
But, um, anyways, I like the Bears here, and I think you do as well.
01:31:00
So yeah, go ahead and lock in the Bears Final afternoon game eyes the Bills versus the Raiders.
01:31:12
Another interesting game to me.
01:31:15
Um, I think the Bills defense has been slightly underwhelming compared to what most people were thinking and hoping that they would be over the course of the season.
01:31:25
Um, Josh Jones Electric.
01:31:28
I mean, there's nothing else you could say.
01:31:29
I obviously the Turk, the the questionable turnovers at that point.
01:31:35
At some point, some of the things that he does on the field.
01:31:37
They're very unorthodox.
01:31:38
That's a good word for it.
01:31:40
He plays the quarterback position in a very unorthodox way.
01:31:43
But man, is he fun to watch.
01:31:45
I've I've said it before in that draft class that we're all drafted 12 or whatever at this point in their careers.
01:31:56
Give me Josh Allen.
01:31:57
Like Josh Allen is the one that I want out of all those guys right now.
01:32:01
Baker Mayfield eventually might be able to, you know, make a run for it if he can.
01:32:05
If you can figure things out, um, or if he ever, you know, moves on from Cleveland, who knows what his career holds in the distant future.
01:32:15
But as of right now, I mean, give me Josh Allen.
01:32:17
This guy, he gets better every single every single week.
01:32:20
And like I said, you can.
01:32:21
You can question a few things that he does.
01:32:23
He's very unorthodox, but I love watching the kid play.
01:32:26
I think he's got a monster arm.
01:32:27
I think the bills are really good across the board.
01:32:30
If their defense just has, it hasn't been performing.
01:32:34
I like the Bills a lot, and then when you match them up against the Raiders, who really are another unpredictable team.
01:32:41
Darren Waller was completely shut down last week by New England.
01:32:45
Which, of course, wasn't a surprise because Bill Belichick probably spent, I say, I don't know, 50 hours watching.
01:32:51
They're watching Waller tape alone, so he probably knew exactly how Thio shut him down.
01:32:59
I just don't I don't I don't know.
01:33:01
I don't think the Bills are going to run away with this game by any means, but I also don't necessarily think that it's gonna come down to the wire.
01:33:09
I think it's the Bills.
01:33:10
Just take care of business.
01:33:11
Limit those turnovers.
01:33:12
They should be able to win, Um, 3.
01:33:14
5 points here.
01:33:16
So obviously, you're going to need more than a field goal, which I think the Bills are capable of doing.
01:33:21
Maybe you see this game differently than me.
01:33:23
Another 52 a half point total here.
01:33:29
Buffalo Bills are minus 1 77 on the money line.
01:33:33
Yeah, I just don't really see any other way that I want to take this game outside of the 3.
01:33:36
5 points in favor of the Bills.
01:33:38
What do you got on this game? Yes.
01:33:41
This game open 2.
01:33:42
5 out in Las Vegas in favor of the Bills is 3.
01:33:45
5 and a few threes, more threes than there were earlier in the day here, popping up on the Vegas market and I would get to three.
01:33:54
I would prefer the three, if I could.
01:33:56
Yeah, totals ranging from 52 a half up to 53.
01:34:01
That is the total I'm looking to play over in this game.
01:34:04
I think it's gonna be There's gonna be a lot of points.
01:34:07
I could very well see the Bills getting the majority of that themselves.
01:34:12
This offense has been a lot of fun to watch here in these first few weeks, going up against the Raiders defense that is not good to begin with and has significant injury issues, particularly in the secondary.
01:34:25
It's a big Stefon Diggs spot.
01:34:26
I don't know who Las Vegas has that is gonna be able to cover him very effectively in this game.
01:34:34
With that said, though I don't know, I'm kind of struggling.
01:34:36
The late I guess, three and a half year with Buffalo part of me wants part of me wants to take the Raiders.
01:34:42
I feel like they're gonna, you know, they're gonna put up a fight in this game, eh? So I guess I'm kind of staying away from the spread on the total over would be the way I'm looking.
01:34:53
I know the theme of this show has been betting under totals that we feel like the books are catching up with.
01:34:58
This one still feels too low to May.
01:35:00
I think the bills will be able to get anywhere from 31 to 35 points of this five themselves, uh, in the way their defense has been playing.
01:35:08
I like Las Vegas to make up the difference there as well.
01:35:11
Uh, the Raiders injury wise on offense.
01:35:15
Henry Rugs is doubtful.
01:35:17
And then Brian Edwards has already been ruled out.
01:35:19
It's gonna need to be a Josh Jacobs game on the ground.
01:35:23
And also, they're gonna need more on the Darren Waller, Uh, just plain and simple.
01:35:27
And then 100 retro could be like a stinky flex play.
01:35:30
I think, uh, in fantasy this week, for sure.
01:35:33
Hey, put up a nice line last week and I could see him very much doing that again.
01:35:39
Looking at adjusted efficiency just because I was curious the bills were particularly poor, actually, against the run. 26.
01:35:46
So, uh, I could see a situation where, uh and that would go against an over bet.
01:35:56
It's still not going to sway me off of it on the Buffaloes.
01:35:58
Also 15th against the past.
01:36:01
I guess the big concern for me is, you know, is Derek are gonna be able to get it done with limited weapons.
01:36:08
And so with that, I bring into the conversation another ****** knife.
01:36:12
I project this one.
01:36:14
We only have to pick three out of four of these correctly and we still win.
01:36:18
2.
01:36:19
5 times are buying eso.
01:36:20
We got Derek Carr over under 270 a half passing yards.
01:36:25
Stefon Diggs over under 67 a half receiving yards.
01:36:30
Josh Jacobs over or under 80.
01:36:31
5 rushing yards.
01:36:33
Darren Waller over under 5.5.
01:36:36
Perceptions.
01:36:39
Oh, boy.
01:36:40
Um, so again, the Derek Carr one is kind of holding me up, but I like the Darren Waller over and receptions, I think, even though he was smothered last week in New England he still managed to catch is by the end of the game, um so and obviously his target share eyes typically a lot higher than that.
01:37:00
So I would like the over in that I definitely like the over and Josh Jacobs rush yards because, like you said, the Bills have not been that great against the run.
01:37:08
And Josh Jacobs has been, has been really good, um, going all the way back to some of the first streams that you and I and Zach ever did together.
01:37:16
You you asked me, right? I don't know what's wrong with you for, you know, not liking Josh Jacobs.
01:37:20
Because I love Josh Jacobs.
01:37:21
And ever since then I've come around, realized I was an idiot because you know Josh Jacobs is He's great.
01:37:25
He's a He's a monster.
01:37:27
Um, so I like the over on Josh Jacobs as well.
01:37:30
And then what was the other? What was the other prop there? Waller, Josh Jacobs, Derek Carr and Stefon Diggs.
01:37:37
I like the overdone Stefan days as well. Yeah.
01:37:40
Yep.
01:37:41
So for me, looking at playing this, it would be car I'd be going under.
01:37:45
I think I probably want to just too much going on here with the receivers and the injuries.
01:37:51
I think the Raiders will score.
01:37:53
But I think this is a big Josh Jacobs game going over for Jacobs.
01:37:58
Darren Waller.
01:37:59
You know, I think you got to go over with that.
01:38:02
Just given the injuries.
01:38:03
Uh, Derek Carr is gonna be throwing to him a lot in this game.
01:38:07
He's a primary target.
01:38:08
When on that digs is an easy overplay.
01:38:13
Good news.
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That means you're gonna win 110 plus 27 a half.
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01:40:35
One last game to talk about on Sunday before we jump into the Monday night contest between the Packers and the Falcons.
01:40:43
Uh, Sunday night it's gonna be wrapped up by the Eagles taking on the 40 Niners.
01:40:49
Believe this line has moved a little bit, just like most of them have have this we have this week.
01:40:55
I think the last time I looked the Niners were only a seven point favorite.
01:40:58
Now they are a 7.
01:40:59
5 point favorite.
01:41:00
Pretty decent pay, although minus 106 on draftkings.
01:41:03
So you're getting nearly even money, Um, for the Niners minus 7.5.
01:41:08
Right now, I'm just in the camp where I don't believe in the Eagles.
01:41:12
And I do believe in the 40 Niners, despite all their injuries, despite everything that the 40 Niners have had going on, Kyle Shanahan has just taking it in stride, has come out and just dominated teams even without basically every single one of his starters.
01:41:27
It seems like I am in the camp of not betting against the 40 Niners until somebody comes out and shows me why I should be betting against the 40 Niners and this season.
01:41:44
So I'm just gonna roll with the 40 Niners again.
01:41:46
Believe they get George Kittle back this week.
01:41:49
So if you're making me take a point spread here, I'm going to take the 40 Niners.
01:41:55
Um, don't really don't know if I'll be betting this game if I'll be live bullets on this game or not, But I do.
01:42:01
Yeah, I do like the 40 Niners to both win this game and probably cover against the Eagles.
01:42:08
Alright, I am going to play Devil's Advocate, I guess for you on this one look a headlines out in Las Vegas on this game last week a Tsar Ca It was 3.5.
01:42:22
Now that you know the 40 Niners, I think should be favored.
01:42:25
Here's the home game.
01:42:26
Uh, they've looked impressive.
01:42:28
Despite all of their injuries.
01:42:30
The Eagles have looked terrible.
01:42:32
Uh, and the Eagles have got plenty of injuries of their own to.
01:42:35
Sean Jackson is out for this game.
01:42:37
Now.
01:42:38
I want to say I and I might have heard this correctly.
01:42:40
Three Eagles had one healthy wide receiver dressed and practicing this week, and that is Craig Ward, which is just absolutely insane.
01:42:49
Tight end Dallas Goddard is also out.
01:42:51
It's there in the same spot as they were last year.
01:42:53
They went out, they drafted all these offensive weapons and they drafted.
01:42:56
They got all these wide receivers and they're like, Oh, we're you know, we're gonna be good.
01:42:59
Injury bug won't get us this year.
01:43:01
Now we're three weeks in and you're in the same spot You were in last year.
01:43:04
Except you don't even have Dallas.
01:43:05
Got it.
01:43:06
Now you know, God, it was such a huge part of that offense last year, and now he's on IR.
01:43:10
Yeah, so and Carson Wentz has not looked good.
01:43:13
The offensive line is not held up in past approach to dealing with injuries of their own and the Philadelphia secondary that was supposed to be improved.
01:43:21
You know, going out in training for Darius Slay.
01:43:23
That is not worked out either.
01:43:24
Um, and yet McMullen's is starting on the other side.
01:43:30
The 40 Niners defense is and what they are.
01:43:33
Paper, I guess when you account for the injuries backfield still banged up, has to give should get a bit of a boost.
01:43:40
Deebo Samuel was activated off IR this week.
01:43:43
How effective he'll be in his first game back remains to be seen.
01:43:46
George Kittle is gonna be back in the fold, and yet look a headline based on this new line of 7 7.5.
01:43:52
In most places, it's the ultimate by low on the Eagles with how bad they've looked.
01:44:03
Touchdown, uh, why not? This is a team that needs to make something happen and I know no one is running away with the NFC East ahead of them.
01:44:12
If Dallas wins earlier in the day and the Eagles loses their full game and a half behind.
01:44:17
All right, this team, this team needs to get a win.
01:44:21
Andi, you know, it's not ideal.
01:44:25
The 40 Niners defense is gonna have their way.
01:44:27
This could be a low scoring game.
01:44:28
I wouldn't put that past anyone either side on this one.
01:44:32
So, looking at the total of 45 45 a half, I might be looking to play that under two.
01:44:37
Uh, but again, Same thing is we were talking about with the charges.
01:44:40
Bucks this low, total.
01:44:41
I'm projecting a game that could go under this total.
01:44:45
And you're telling me there's a you know, a full touchdown, plus full touchdown and hook in some places on the spread.
01:44:52
This is eagles for me.
01:44:54
Eagles territory.
01:44:56
Um, I'm on Philadelphia in this game, and it pains me to say it very, very strange way because I feel like if they just, you know, needles figure things out there.
01:45:08
Not this bad, are they? But yeah, they might prove me wrong, but that's that's the only place I got here.
01:45:15
I'm not laying 7.
01:45:17
5 and you were right last week. I was on the Giants last week.
01:45:19
Eagles are better than the Giants, so Oh, eagles are much better.
01:45:23
I mean, the Eagles.
01:45:24
The Eagles have 10 times better chance of covering the spread than than the Giants, but somehow are bigger underdogs want the Giants only like six point underdogs or 6.
01:45:35
5 point under three three and a half.
01:45:37
Oh, ****.
01:45:38
And you guys were on the Giants last week.
01:45:40
That was the opening kind for, uh, this Eagles game.
01:45:44
The Giants game started around 6.
01:45:46
5, and they just got sharp money all the way down.
01:45:49
All week long, this game has gone in the other direction.
01:45:52
I just think it's an overreaction to what 40 Niners were able to do against what I think we both agree is a terrible Giants team and the Eagles team that it just looked out of sorts in every single game so far.
01:46:03
That's got to change at some point.
01:46:04
I think, you know, injuries aside that you're giving me a full touchdown here against a team that's dealing with their own injuries, and I just think it's a market overreaction.
01:46:14
I think that's a lot of what's weighing into this.
01:46:16
Bet for me is you know, I don't love the Eagles as a team I want to bet on, but this number just feels too far off.
01:46:24
So that's the play, and that's that's totally fair.
01:46:28
And, like, you know, like Like I said, if you had any sort of belief that the Giants had a chance last week, you should definitely be believing that the Eagles have a chance this week, especially when you're getting 4.
01:46:40
5 extra points in your favor.
01:46:42
Like definitely, if you were a Giants better last week, you should be an Eagles better this week, even though Kittles back and things like that.
01:46:48
But I don't know.
01:46:50
I don't mind Nick Mullins.
01:46:51
I I just don't think that the drop, I think that the coaching is so great there that the drop off of the quarterback matters less already.
01:47:00
But then, when you're talking to drop off from Jimmy G to Nick Mullins, it's far less than the drop off of, say, Patrick Mahomes gets hurt and Chad Henny comes in, you know, like that's that's a drop off.
01:47:11
That's a difference.
01:47:12
You know, I just don't think that Nick Mullins is all that bad.
01:47:16
And I don't think Jimmy Garoppolo is all that great.
01:47:18
So, um, I think you're getting a lot of the same quarterback.
01:47:21
Obviously, Jimmy is bad, and now he's getting some healthy receiving target back.
01:47:29
I don't know.
01:47:30
I think Mullins and the and the Niners, until I see otherwise, um, are not again.
01:47:34
I don't love laying 7.5.
01:47:36
I'd much rather be laying three right now, but I'm just not prepared to bet against the Niners right now.
01:47:41
Um, especially against the Eagles.
01:47:44
Although, like you said, with the Eagles as terrible is that happen? And as backed into a corner as they are, maybe that makes them more dangerous.
01:47:51
So I don't know, Maybe I'm a fool, and I'm on on the complete wrong side of this game.
01:47:55
I guess we will see tomorrow night.
01:47:57
Uh, when Sunday night football hits the field, one of us is a fool.
01:48:01
Here.
01:48:02
It's either mayor you.
01:48:03
So you're right.
01:48:04
Last week, I'm hoping they prove me right.
01:48:06
This week, and then I don't have to feel like it's much of a fool.
01:48:09
And one final point I'll make because you were talking about coaching.
01:48:12
I think the Kyle Shanahan versus Joe Judge coaching matchup is a far greater mismatch.
01:48:19
Doug Peterson.
01:48:20
Oh, for sure, for sure, for sure.
01:48:24
First year.
01:48:25
So I mean, like I said every reason across the board, if you were on the Giants last week, you should be on Philadelphia this week.
01:48:32
I mean, every reason across the board says that you should be, um so, yeah, that's Sunday Night football we're gonna wrap up with Monday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and my Green Bay Packers.
01:48:46
This is the first time in three weeks that I am not just getting about the Packers spread.
01:48:51
I have hit on the Packers spread, and I have hit on Packer money or Packers as, uh, Moneyline underdogs.
01:48:58
Two out of the three weeks hit the spread.
01:49:01
All three weeks I've been all over the Packers.
01:49:04
I love me some Packers.
01:49:05
They've been great to me, Great for my fans.
01:49:07
I'm great for my checkbook this week.
01:49:11
I just can't I don't think I could make it for four.
01:49:14
I think this is I don't want to call it a sucker bet, but I kind of think it's a sucker bet here with as amazing as the Packers have been there, favored by a touchdown.
01:49:24
But they do have some injuries.
01:49:26
I mean, the Falcons choose.
01:49:33
Their defense is giving up a bunch of points late in the second half.
01:49:37
Um, I think that they are a more even match up for the Packers than some other people might think that they are this week.
01:49:44
And I just I don't love the Packers to cover the seven with an injured or a hobbled.
01:49:50
I guess you could call them, um, Davante Adams and then losing Alma's art.
01:49:55
I think Al Mazar has become a massive impact player in this Packers.
01:49:59
Often it's and even though they're still gonna be able to run that I don't love the Packers by seven.
01:50:07
I still like him on toe win the game, Um, but I think Atlanta stays inside the number and again we're talking 56 a half point total here, which I believe might be the highest out of any game.
01:50:20
And indeed it is.
01:50:21
The highest of any game that we've talked about here.
01:50:23
So Monday Night football, Obviously, people are expecting a shootout.
01:50:27
Expecting a lot of points from both teams.
01:50:29
You see, any way that this game goes under between these two high powered offense is And what do you think about the spread? I don't I don't think just off principle.
01:50:38
I don't think I'm gonna bet on Atlanta like, actually go live bullets on Atlanta.
01:50:41
But I do think they're gonna be able to stay inside the number this this week.
01:50:47
Yeah.
01:50:48
You know, Atlanta has been breaking the heart of betters weekend week out here, getting a full touchdown.
01:50:56
It's enticing.
01:50:58
Uh, I guess I just don't have a strong enough opinion right now to say, tell you to run and back the Falcons in this game.
01:51:07
Uh, this is a Atlanta team, though that quite conceivably could be three.
01:51:13
And oh, right now, right.
01:51:15
If they get a few more breaks to go their way against Seattle on, then just the two back to back awful collapses here in the past two weeks.
01:51:24
Um, they could at least be two in one.
01:51:26
No doubt about that offense is gonna be a premium in this game.
01:51:30
This is what was one of those games where the totals of 57.
01:51:33
And you know, I really don't know how this game goes under.
01:51:36
I think both sides are gonna be lighting it up.
01:51:39
I could see both sides eclipsing 30 points.
01:51:42
Uh, probably, maybe even more likely would be the winning side in the upper thirties.
01:51:47
Losing side in the lower thirties or upper twenties.
01:51:50
Um, yeah.
01:51:53
So I would be looking at over, I think if I were gonna play the total, that's probably the best that I have in this game.
01:51:58
Uh, the line opened as Green Bay minus five.
01:52:02
Getting better up two points.
01:52:04
Do with that.
01:52:05
What? You will control Hawkins in this spot, but, you know, this is just gonna be an offensive shootout.
01:52:13
I think both ways.
01:52:15
For me, losing Lazard hurts Green Bay.
01:52:18
But, you know, like you said, they get Adams back.
01:52:20
I am confident in both offenses, and Green Bay has got a by week toe Look forward to this is the home game.
01:52:28
And just I can't trust Atlanta right now.
01:52:32
I want I almost want to say the Falcons have to go in here and win this game outright.
01:52:39
That's not gonna happen.
01:52:40
It's it's just not and I can't even trust them Thio, you know, take seven points with them in a road game, then Atlanta is frustrating our animal.
01:52:51
See that? The packers for me and yeah, I mean, Atlanta last week.
01:52:57
I believe it was yeah, against the Bears and both of my 80 s pools.
01:53:02
I had them as my best bet, and anybody that plays the TS knows your best bet is worth two points is every other pick is worth one.
01:53:08
And I was celebrating all, like, the whole time.
01:53:11
I was just, like, so happy like, Oh, I hit my best bets easily.
01:53:14
You know, Atlanta comes back, gives up the game.
01:53:17
I lost both my best bet.
01:53:19
So, um, I don't know what's intriguing me.
01:53:22
Thio even believe in Atlanta a little bit here, except for the fact that just the Packers have been so good and Alan Lazard happy that offense that I think Atlanta will find a way to keep inside the number.
01:53:35
I don't see them winning this game.
01:53:37
I I just definitely don't, um Green Bay has been too good for that.
01:53:41
But, um, something Thio consider here, too.
01:53:44
And actually what, you know, this could come down Thio affecting the spread quite heavily.
01:53:50
Atlanta doesn't know who's who's kicking for them this week.
01:53:53
Uh, young, like who is is doubtful.
01:53:56
I don't know if Atlanta I haven't been, you know, up on up on the Atlanta kicking tryouts or anything, but I don't think Atlanta knows who's kicking for them this week.
01:54:04
On Gwen, You have Mason Crosby on the other side, who has been really good this year.
01:54:09
And the Packers.
01:54:10
Of course, I have all sorts of confidence in him.
01:54:12
If the Packers can kick the field goal and the Falcons can't, I mean that that could potentially prove to be a big factor in this game.
01:54:21
Yeah, very well, could young lady who is going to be out for this game from a fantasy team? I'm sure exactly what route are gonna be going at kicker, but it's not gonna be whoever the Falcons air trotting out there to keep bugles for them.
01:54:34
I could tell you that much.
01:54:36
Uh, Atlanta will get a boost offensively here in this game.
01:54:39
You know, we're talking about the monster.
01:54:40
Adam's coming back. Julio Jones is questionable.
01:54:42
I would expect to see him out there.
01:54:43
I think in this one.
01:54:44
This is go time for the Falcons.
01:54:46
After last week got away from them, it's gonna be all hands on tech.
01:54:50
Isn't Ridley questionable as well? Ridley is questionable.
01:54:55
That would almost be the receiver I would be more concerned about.
01:54:58
I think for Sunday for Monday night.
01:55:01
I'm sorry, uh, fantasy wise and put you in a tough spot being a day later than all the other games.
01:55:07
Uh, from a betting standpoint, I You know, as far as the spread goes, I only see this total climbing higher.
01:55:15
So I guess if you like the over which I don't like the under here, I'm gonna leave it at that.
01:55:20
You like the over Lock it in now.
01:55:22
Uh, faras the spread goes.
01:55:24
I want to get some more clarity on these injuries.
01:55:26
Andi, I think it will come down to who's in and who's out for whether or not I am actually a Falcons backer on Monday night and just one other statue to throw out there in favor of the over thes two teams two teams have not turned the ball over this season.
01:55:46
Matt Ryan has two interceptions, but outside of that, the Falcons don't have a single turnover.
01:55:51
The Packers have zero turnovers a squad through three weeks.
01:55:55
Zero fumble, zero interceptions.
01:55:57
Eso that bodes well for the over as well.
01:56:01
You're not going to have the offense over there turning, turning the ball over, um, and missing out on opportunities for points, I guess.
01:56:11
S Oh, yeah.
01:56:12
That's something to think about as well.
01:56:14
Anything else that you've got here as, uh, man, I said, we're gonna keep it inside of an hour.
01:56:20
And we're 3.
01:56:21
5 minutes away from two hours, but, uh, this is my favorite stream of the week.
01:56:27
I never mind talking, bedding, talking football.
01:56:29
Of course.
01:56:30
Anything else that's on your mind before we sign off here? Uh, yeah.
01:56:36
I got something else that's on my mind.
01:56:37
The yellow would 500 at Talladega Superspeedway tomorrow, uh, for NASCAR.
01:56:43
I'm deviating from NFL betting to NASCAR.
01:56:45
Betting I didn't have an article go out this week.
01:56:48
Um, things were kind of crazy on my end, but there are a few names I'm looking at here, Uh, for the superspeedways.
01:56:56
For those of you who don't know NASCAR when they run of these tracks, uh, they have a package that's mandated to them by the governing body.
01:57:04
And so it keeps, basically keeps speeds and check.
01:57:07
Because superspeedways thes long straightaways with high banking on the turns, Uh, speeds easily exceed 200 miles an hour.
01:57:14
And without this restrict or package, uh, they would be going, uh, just incredibly fast.
01:57:20
A tease places, uh, so a few names, though with that being said, I guess, uh, to finish that point, uh, playing field evens up.
01:57:29
Uh, and so you know, it's almost anybody's ballgame.
01:57:32
But being a playoff race this week, Uh, the one name among the playoff drivers that I'm looking at is actually the same guy was looking at back in the spring here, this track.
01:57:40
And that's Eric al Merola.
01:57:42
Hey is known for loving the superspeedway races.
01:57:46
He's 16 the one that draftkings right now toe win the race given it's a superspeedway, given its uneven playing field, Even the odds for the favorites in this race like a Denny Hamlin is the odds on favorite also tends to run well here at Talladega and has been very successful at Daytona.
01:58:03
The other superspeed around the NASCAR circuit.
01:58:06
Multiple 8 to 1 last week in Las Vegas and hardly odds on favorite on.
01:58:15
He was just plus 3 50.
01:58:16
So that just kind of tells you how the superspeedway evens up this playing field on.
01:58:22
We can look at a few non playoff drivers to that could be on the map here this week.
01:58:28
Ricky Stenhouse Jr is that wanting toe one.
01:58:31
Ty Dillon eyes at 80 to 1 and then a shout out special shout out to Brendan Gone in his final NASCAR race.
01:58:41
He's also at 80 to 1.
01:58:42
He's only running superspeedway schedules this year.
01:58:44
Finished top five at Daytona, though in the last race of the regular season.
01:58:49
Eso this is his last.
01:58:50
NASCAR rates one man team there.
01:58:53
Eso I'm pulling for him as the big underdog in this race.
01:58:56
He's 82 1, But yeah, yellow and 500 Tomorrow in the midst of your football starts at 2 p.m.
01:59:02
So be sure to check that out.
01:59:04
Talladega is my favorite tractor watch, so I'm all hands on deck for that one.
01:59:08
Yeah, That would be nice to have, you know, a nice feel good story there as well as hitting 80 80.
01:59:13
The one bet along the way.
01:59:21
A couple of bucks.
01:59:22
Yeah, that'd be really cool.
01:59:26
E like I like NASCAR for much of the same reasons as I like golf.
01:59:30
Of course, I'll bet in Gulf because there's literally unlimited so many things you can bet on.
01:59:34
You can bet on live every hole you can like.
01:59:36
There's a million things to bet on.
01:59:38
It was one of the reasons I love golf.
01:59:40
But, you know, the other thing is that almost every race, or almost every round, like the underdogs do have they have a legitimate shot.
01:59:48
I mean, and even if it's worth to throw, are worth it to throw even a few dollars that somebody like everything. The one.
01:59:54
Even if you put $2 on it like you're gonna 160 bucks if it ends up, you know, And like, $2 is nothing.
02:00:00
You can't even buy a slice of pizza with $2 but you could potentially win 101 160 bucks.
02:00:04
I like that about NASCAR much as much of the same as I like it with Gulf.
02:00:09
There's just value all across the board.
02:00:11
So if you actually know a little bit what you're talking about or you listen to somebody who does like Henry, Uh, there's, uh there's there's ample amounts or ample opportunity to make a decent amount of money.
02:00:22
So there you go.
02:00:23
There's some NASCAR picks for you.
02:00:26
That's what's so great about these superspeedways.
02:00:28
It's just pack racing.
02:00:30
You're always gonna get the big crash.
02:00:31
There's never a lack of entertainment.
02:00:33
That's the kind of racing I like.
02:00:35
It's other tracks, you know.
02:00:36
I get spaced out, and that's why you have such a variance in the odds at a place like Las Vegas, Atlanta, etcetera.
02:00:41
You're not gonna find that at Talladega.
02:00:44
Uh, and like Jake was saying, there's so many different ways to bet on these races.
02:00:49
Uh, you know, some of those guys we just talked about Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
02:00:53
You know a lot about him.
02:00:54
Toe win a 20 to 1.
02:00:55
You get plus 1 20 for a top 10 finish.
02:00:57
That's about I really like in this situation.
02:01:00
So, you know, you could do top tens, top threes top fives they have in race props.
02:01:06
Think about the best finish by manufacturer.
02:01:08
You can bet driver's head the head in matchups.
02:01:10
Um, draftkings has a really nice job putting these odds out.
02:01:13
But of course, other books have several NASCAR odds as well.
02:01:17
So should be throw some action on it all for it.
02:01:24
Especially Maybe if your bets aren't looking that great in the early window in football, maybe trying our change cards a little bit and, uh, get some action on NASCAR.
02:01:34
Um, I did promise moved a or just went on your football bets and then take all those winnings and, you know, put that on, put that on NASCAR.
02:01:46
Either way, Either way, you want to do it.
02:01:48
But I'd rather I'd rather take my winnings rather than be trying to chase.
02:01:52
Um, and of course, everybody bet responsibly, you know, want to throw that out there to um But I did promise.
02:01:59
Um I did promise that I would throw out my five team Moneyline parlay.
02:02:05
I also have a teaser that I really like that I'm gonna wrap up here.
02:02:08
I won't really go into depth too much about him, but I'll post them on my Twitter as well.
02:02:12
Um, by my picks at pick City, I give up free picks quite often on doing so again this week.
02:02:21
But I'm not giving out my best material because you gotta You gotta pay a few bucks for that.
02:02:26
But I have now The last two weeks hit each of my free parlays.
02:02:31
I hit my last free parlay last Monday with the Lightning money line, Air Lightning and Regulation and the Chiefs money line.
02:02:39
So my free probably have been on fire lately, so I will throw two more at you right here.
02:02:43
First is a five team Moneyline parlay.
02:02:46
Um, plus, it's gonna pay.
02:02:47
Plus 2 65.
02:02:49
You got the Sea Hawks, Buccaneers and Cardinals, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Cardinals and then just as a little extra on top.
02:02:59
I've got the Ravens and the Rams.
02:03:01
That's paying. Plus 2 65.
02:03:03
So Seahawks, Ravens, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Rams pays plus 2 65.
02:03:07
My other one is a 12 point teaser, which I love.
02:03:11
You got away a little bit of juice there, But man, 12 point teasers like they're almost there, nearly impossible to miss on.
02:03:16
So I've got my 12 point, Caesar here.
02:03:18
Seahawks are getting 6.
02:03:19
5 points.
02:03:21
Buccaneers air getting five points.
02:03:23
Ravens minus two and rams minus one.
02:03:26
That will pay out if you put 100 bucks on it. That will pay out $67.
02:03:30
So again, you're laying a little bit of a little bit of juice there.
02:03:33
But, I mean, how you're gonna lose that bet.
02:03:35
How are you gonna lose that? Bet you're not.
02:03:37
So there you go.
02:03:38
There's the two free part ways for this weekend.
02:03:40
You can check it.
02:03:42
That son holds on sport for other plays that I might throw out there.
02:03:45
Find me on Pick City as well as Zach.
02:03:48
You can find us both on pick City.
02:03:49
Both of us are Pixar.
02:03:51
Very reasonable.
02:03:52
My picks start for just 4. 99.
02:03:54
you get my entire card.
02:03:55
I think Henry will be on pick city eventually as well.
02:03:58
Um, check out pick city dot com Just in general.
02:04:01
Some amazing captures over there.
02:04:03
Great website for sports info of any kind as well.
02:04:07
You can click on the sports report.
02:04:09
Um, see some different articles that I and other writers right over there Pick city dot com Fantastic website.
02:04:16
Check it out.
02:04:17
Um, that my two free part ways That's some of that.
02:04:22
Some of Henry's very nice winning weekend.
02:04:26
I think that's all we've got tonight.
02:04:29
Aziz.
02:04:30
Uh, we move towards Yeah, that's all that I have written down that I wanted to cover.
02:04:36
So as we move towards Week four NFL Sunday kickoff, we appreciate you tuning in.
02:04:41
Thank you to all of you who, uh, tipped us.
02:04:44
Anybody who shares these shares these streams around, we appreciate it a ton and yeah, follow hang time.
02:04:51
Sports follow at Fleury Sports there.
02:04:53
I did the wrong hand again.
02:04:54
That's four weeks in a row.
02:04:55
Now.
02:04:56
I've done the wrong hand, and I, of course, am at Sun holds on sports.
02:04:59
Follow our fearless leader, Zach Brunner at fantasy Flurry, I believe, is his, um is his at on Twitter? Yeah.
02:05:09
Enjoy some football.
02:05:10
Hopefully you winsome bets.
02:05:11
We will talk to you on Monday night.
02:05:14
Have a fantastic weekend.
02:05:16
Everybody don't know if there's still some college football on.
02:05:18
I'm sure there's a big game going on yet tonight, but enjoy the rest of the night and enjoy NFL Week Sunday week for our NFL Sunday, Week four.
02:05:27
We will talk to you again on Monday.
02:05:29
Henry, have a good one.
02:05:31
And, uh, enjoy that race tomorrow to I don't know if I'll be tuning in, but enjoy it.
02:05:37
We will for sure. Have a good night, everyone.
02:05:39
All right.
02:05:40
Thank you, everybody.
02:05:41
And check out ****** Night fight as well.
02:05:42
Promo code flurry.
02:05:43
Gonna get up to a $50 deposit match plus 5 $3 just for signing up and using the promo.

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@DPN_Ray DK Metcalf calls for Jalen Hurts to start over Carson Wentz #NFL
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