Good evening and welcome to the grid.
Irons presents the slate for Week one of the NFL season.
I'm here with Kyle Carol at Fantasy Reserve.
I'm Jeff Di Matteo I handle is at gridiron ratings.
Kyle, how you doing? Doing good man.
Football is less than we are about what, 14 15 hours away? So can't do much better than that.
It's like Christmas Eve almost.
I'm really sorry I had.
That's exactly how I feel.
I'm like, Come on.
I mean, lots of fantasy points under the tree.
So I know I'm thrilled.
I know we had a little bit of football on Thursday.
I think everybody in their dog has been talking about it, beating it to absolute death.
Clyde Edwards, Hilaire turns out, is good at football. Shocker.
You know, Pat Mahomes is still good at football.
Uh, you know, I think we've seen enough of that game that we probably need to go to in detail.
But what did you see? That kind of stood out to you.
I'll probably talk about Will fall or for the next six days, because we talked about him before, you know, with my home league.
I'm like, Man, I really wanna put will fall on my lineup because I know what the upside is And we talked about it and I ended up putting them in temporarily over Terry MacLaurin, who was my lock in guy.
And although he didn't do the big plays of the touchdowns, he got me 10 receptions and 120 yards.
So that's more than what I could have asked for.
And like you mentioned, it was like, Are you going to be OK if he ends up on your bench putting up those points and I'm like, No, I wouldn't be okay, So a lot of that's That's the biggest thing for me.
I need to see another week of him.
He's gonna be in there for me week to, regardless of what happens so, but I want to see what happens for two or three weeks to see if he's like the real deal.
What I believe in Will Fuller.
And if there's a couple things to take away, that number one is that he had 31% of their air yards and it doesn't get talked about enough.
Our fantasy performance and future, um, target share, etcetera.
So Will Fuller led the team in target? Share wasn't even close.
31% of the Air Yards, which is an astronomical figure.
Last year, the league leader only had 27%.
So that's a pretty big number.
No DeAndre Hopkins commanding the Rock.
I think we can expect, if healthy, Will Fuller to continue to see lots and lots of volume.
And that's a great thing if you got him in the 5th, 6th, 7th round this year.
And to kind of touch on, uh, Clyde Edwards aware while we're here and then we'll start talking d efs.
But I see a lot of tweets going around about the you know, he couldn't punch it in the goal line.
You know, he got stuff like 345 times in a row.
Darryl Williams was the perceived, you know, third down back.
I don't think you really have to worry about that.
Like Patrick, Mahomes threw the ball 32 times.
I believe is what it is.
You know when when they get in these shoot outs that they're eventually gonna have to get into by the whistle there is gonna be on the field, and everyone knew they were going to run the ball down there at the goal line.
So I don't know if any of those backs would have been able to score touchdowns down there, so I'm not concerned about it.
Fire him up the rest of season and don't look back.
Yeah, I would temper expectations on numbers of carries.
I don't think you're gonna get 20 plus carries every week, but you expect to see more target share and he'll be used.
If you've been watching football long enough to know who Brian Westbrook was for the Eagles back in the day, you know he is a very similar back to Westbrook.
He's built low to the ground.
He's good in pass pro.
He's like a lightning bolt when he's got the rock in his hands.
It is one of those players that he may do it three or four different ways, but he's going to get your fantasy points.
So you gotta love that.
Gotta love having him.
He was obviously a top five top six pick this season.
Once, you know, draft season really kicked off in earnest, so gotta love him.
I'm not worried about Darryl Williams at all, and I'm not worry about the goal line stuff, either, because Houston needs to get a little bit of credit here.
They looked great down by the goal line and they were really victimizing the interior of the chief.
So line that Chief so long really needs to get some work done.
And the same could be said for Houston's interior line.
I don't think either online really look that good truthfully, Um, but I don't expect to see Hilaire going between the tackles at the goal line for the entire season.
I expect to see more of those off tackle plays, those naked boots, maybe something off jet action to Tyree kill.
You know, there's plenty of things they could do by the goal line.
I just think the Chiefs knew they had the game in hand and they weren't necessarily trying to open up the whole playbook and give anyone anything.
So expect the playbook to open up quite a bit, absolutely.
And but like I said, you know, both defense's have really good pass rush.
We saw them torture each other's often some lines all night.
Still high scoring game, though, right? So it was still fun to watch almost every fantasy, you know, player that you were putting into your lineups, you know, except Randall Cobb for me.
Who? He just needed 10 points.
Randall Cop, Uh, I think everyone told you basically, you know, Ben Brandon cooks.
You don't want him out there in your lineup.
She's coming off, you know, a riel or he's coming off a soft tissue shelf tissue injury.
That was recent.
So hopefully you, you know, paying attention to that the Jordan Atkins show.
He kind of talked about of nowhere.
You knew it was gonna be one of these three tight ends, and he ends up being the guy.
And if you watch the game, Cris Collinsworth.
He was like, this guy's really athletic.
He was like giving you the breakdown.
And they all hype up the players on the field.
But he was, you know, this guy is a super athletic tight end.
All the metrics say that he can, you know, be a top tier athlete at this position and really be a fantasy points to your team so I don't know if he's worth a waiver wire pickup this week.
Or even, you know, being into your lineup next week for tight end getting on the field.
He could be worthwhile for D EFS here in a couple weeks.
Sure, I'll throw in a thought on.
Then we'll move on to the FS lineups here.
Uh, when it comes to Jordan Akins.
I'm actually watching him for a couple of years now, and he is a guy that's still ascending.
He's still learning.
The game is a little raw, decent route wrong, but he is exceptional with the ball in his hands when you go back and review Jordan Jenkins numbers over the last two seasons among their tight ends, he's number one in air yards.
He's number one in yards after the catch, and he's also right up there and catch rate.
He's exceptionally productive when they target him, but it seems like for whatever reason, Bill O'Brien just likes to keep him in that number two tight end role and keep him out there in 12.
You know, one running back to tight ends and put him out there in other situations that are maybe less obvious passing downs.
And then, of course, in recent years they were just funnel the ball to DeAndre Hopkins so that the target share for titles was super small.
Um, but we'll talk more about Aitken's probably next week for our DFS primer, and we'll get into that a little bit more down the road here.
But I think people are tuning in right now because they really want to hear about who the heck are they playing for draftkings this week? You know who they're gonna line up because everyone wants to win the Millie and, uh, you know, hopefully we're gonna help you get there.
It's kind of the plan.
Unless, of course, we want e think we could familiar, right? That's that's the real plan.
You could get sick, you know, get hurt.
Yeah, Let's start doing some of the breakdown.
Sure, I'll feel some of the breakdown.
Sorry, A little bit delay there.
How about we shoot through position s so why don't we take a look? We'll go through.
Let's take a look at quarterbacks first and kind of see, you know what we're feeling there and kind of what's what's happening in the wide, wide world. That's a quarterbacks.
Um, you know, looking up Lamar Jackson first, you know he's top of the list at 8100.
It is actually not too bad of a price.
You know, considering guys like, you know, Christian McCaffrey, er or 10 10-K and even Michael Thomas is 9000, so he's actually relative to the other positions at a decent price.
Uh, you know, plays Cleveland.
He's probably going to be a top three quarterback, you know, he's a lock almost every week to be in that position.
I've actually put lineups in where I have, like, I put him in line ups and I'm like, Oh, this is a good team.
You know? I put this team together with the right price points, and it doesn't look like I'm hurting at one position or another.
So I think you know, the real thing that I wanna mention here is don't be afraid to put Lamar Jackson here line up just because the price is heavy, like he can still, when you're we like, if he comes out with ah, 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground and you know throws 180 with another touchdown.
That's probably gonna be plenty to be a tear breaker.
And that person is probably going to win the million dollars.
Well, you're talking about a point total there that would hit 34.
35 on draftkings scoring.
And that's gonna get you into your talking 4.
5 X on $8100 salary.
I mean, obviously, we'd all love to have Lamar Jackson, but we are constrained by salary.
So how about some mid priced guys? I mean, I love Lamar to I've actually got, um, roster in a bunch of leagues, and I have to, uh, really make our lineups with Jackson in there.
But who can we kind of lean on? Where some guys, that price point? Maybe that kind of 6 to $7000 range? Yeah, if it's in that range.
I like Josh Allen a lot.
I know it's a low over under, but at some point, you know you're playing a bad defense.
Your favored by I think they're favored by, like, 8.
5 points like it is a very low over under, but they're favored by a lot to still put up 24 25 points in this game, and I think what the athletes that they have in Stefon Diggs, John Brown is.
You know, he's a fantastic number two wide receiver.
He was still pretty consistent last year as the number one, but he has Speed and Cole Beasley underneath.
And, you know, I think just with this talent of wide receivers, he can break out.
And you know, all it takes is one big play, right? And if that big play comes in the third quarter after it's been a close game and he's already rushed for his 40 yards and a touchdown and he's thrown for his 180 all you have is just 40 yard long touchdown bomb.
That's gonna be the tear difference here, where you're getting close to that four X that we're talking about.
So Josh Allen, probably one of my favorite.
I think I have him pretty close to 20% of my own quarterbacks in that league or in this million acre gotcha.
I I look at Josh Allen and he, you know, some people love.
He scares me every week and I just I can never pull the trigger on it.
The guy I think I'm leaning on his eyes.
Matt Ryan Matt Ryan's coming in at 6700.
He's just a shade more expensive than Josh Allen.
Um, you know this game is gonna be a shootout.
Seattle's coming into Atlanta.
You know, Matt Ryan is throwing to Julio and Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst, and you got Todd Gurley is probably catch a few passes.
There's a lot of presumed fantasy production in that lineup at that point.
So taking Matt Ryan gives me exposure toe all of those guys, and I have the option to stack at that point.
Or I can step back and say, Hey, you know, take Ryan to get exposure to those guys while I go ahead and build, kind of, say, running back tight end stacks.
Or maybe double up on wide receivers for another quarterback.
And then I could get all of the highest scoring games in one line up.
So I really like Matt Ryan there.
What you're saying about Josh Allen? Hey, I don't think you're wrong.
He just you know, I personally struggled to be a Josh Allen fan.
And it's not that I don't want to cheer for the guy, but I don't wanna hear for the guy.
No, it's not easy because, you know, last year he didn't like you.
Look at his, um, rookie season, right? He has 17 rushing touchdowns the first two years in his rookie season.
He was terrible, throwing the ball.
He only played 11 games and he had eight rushing touchdown.
But you look now, progression of you know, 52% completion percentage to 58 last year.
You know, he increased his touchdown percentage drop his interception percentage, you artist total.
And last year he was very consistent.
He ended up like a quarterback one overall and fantasy season long, but he never had the boom games.
And so I just think when you have the natural progression, have a very solid coaching staff, their inbox hello and the only thing they did was add talent.
Right? Zack Moss doesn't upgrade over Frank bore.
Stefon Diggs isn't up right over.
Whoever they Robert Foster was probably who had been that Wide receiver three last year.
So that's just kind of where I'm going, you know, for what you're saying, That's what I expect to the outlier in.
You know, people aren't gonna want to play Josh Allen because the low over under, but he could be the guy that could be a low percentage, mid level guy.
But I love me some.
Brian, you know, have him a lot of dynasty till he's He's always severely underrated.
As a pastor, he's guaranteed, like, 4500 yards.
Okay, well, I'll pick you back.
One more point for you on Josh Allen, though he's also got a rushing for.
He's one of those guys where he is like an early career Cam Newton, where he can kick in a rushing touchdown regularity.
You know he's got a 20% chance the land you rushing touchdown any given week.
And then if he kicks in a few rushing yards, even if he's not getting it done with his arm and all those athletes you mentioned, he's still reasonable floor.
So there is some good news there.
Let's take a look at two sleepers and we'll move on to running back about a couple of guy instead of maybe in that sub $6000 area.
Maybe we spent up at wide receiver running back some other positions like who to place that your dad would be like eso.
I have the two guys that I like a lot.
Then it's Tyrod Taylor at 5600.
I just think what you just mentioned about Josh Allen.
It's that safe rushing floor and I can't remember in this book of mind with all my Tyrod Taylor statistics that I have on them because I like the guy so much, apparently.
But I think over his course of his starting career in Buffalo, he averaged, like, 33 rushing yards a game.
So that's just that's a floor that he gives you.
I think he averaged one rushing touchdown every four or five games.
You know, those air, the stacks where if everything goes the right way and they're playing in Cincinnati defense, which was really bad last year, you know, he could swing you up for like, Oh, he ended up on that four X, which is for him at 5600.
That's not a lot.
You're talking 25 26 points and you know you're happy on, and then one other guy that I way talked about it before last week.
But it's Derek Carr, and I don't know why.
I think I have the perception that no one wants to start them in the f s.
And I totally get it.
But that right there is going to be the reason for me why, You know, if he's low owned and if he shows out with 330 passing yards against a terrible care line of defense, then it's like, Oh, well, there you go, then.
Hopefully you saved that money there and put that money in other positions that are gonna be difference makers.
I can't wait to hear who you're gonna pick out of these guys down here Russian.
Well, I'm actually I'm gonna cosign Derek Carr.
And the only reason I'm co signing is the same reasons evolved.
Yeah, I'm gonna look like Derek are.
So here's I love the low ownership, and any time you can kind of differentiate your lineup, you could be a little contrary.
And it's a good thing.
And if you listen to fantasy Twitter, apparently Brian Edwards is gonna be, you know, Jerry Rice at, you know, peak Jerry Rice career.
You know, in week one And then you've got Henry rugs.
Who's got game breaking speed? You have Darren Waller and they're supposed to win, and I don't expect Jon Gruden with this group.
They get up early.
I don't think they're gonna take their foot off the gas.
And he wants to build some confidence for this team moving into their new stadium if they get ahead in the pile on.
And that could be a situation where Derek Carr could roll out of this game with 2 93 and suddenly or even 303 get 300 yard bonus from DK.
And we're talking about a game now where Hey, for a 59 $100 guy, I just got a 30 some odd point game I love six x out of my quarterback.
Uh, the other quarterback I'm looking at is actually probably gonna draw some collective groans.
But giving Mitch Stravinsky, uh, you know Mitchell, as his mother calls him 5400 close to a pump plays you're going to get, um, I do some lineups with your guy Tyrod, but Detroit's defense is not good there.
They're just not that good.
They didn't make enough editions in the off season that I would consider impactful.
You bring in Jamie Collins, you lose.
The safety play was okay.
They traded Quandary.
Digs like that group is not better by subtraction right now.
And I think it's safe to say that Robiskie is playing for his career and he's playing for his fifth year option.
He's playing for all these things that he needs to continue.
Thio, you know, basically to be an NFL quarter next.
So I'm expecting a big day out of him and specifically Allen Robinson.
He hooks up with Alan Robinson for a buck 20 and a score.
Then I would expect your basic to be going for 2 75 or so in a couple of scores.
So it could be a big day against Detroit, But yeah, those are my two guys, my sleepers.
I like him a lot.
I think, with travesty the thing that you know, if people are gonna like Oh, this guy doesn't know what he's talking about.
We have a ceiling for TBIs key, right? Like we saw it, it Z passing touchdowns and however unreal that is, You see, it and with their car.
You know, we haven't seen it with Tyrod Taylor.
We've maybe seen it once or twice, but at least with Robiskie, you know, he went on that tear the end of his rookie year.
It was like the six touchdown game was the breakout.
And then he went on to be.
I think he was like the quarterback seven from that week on to the end of the year.
I'm just pointing that out of thin air right there.
But I think that's what if it waas I mean, so we've seen the ceiling with him, and so you know, I like it.
Is that a great passer? Kinda like Josh Allen.
He's not a great passer, but he does run enough, and he does some other things just to kind of give you that forward. The fantasy valuable.
And at that price, you've probably patted your roster with two stud running backs or a stud running back in a couple of stud wideouts.
You're in a position where your lineup comes together in such a way where you're on that track for 200 total points and you're in contention for for big money, not just getting your you know, you're five or $10 entry fee back.
So let's go ahead and shoot it over to running backs.
So we know about the basics, right? Christian McCaffrey's a monster.
We know he's a monster.
He's hard to get in the lineup, but we know what he is.
Dalvin Cook 7900.
We know he is Alvin Kamara.
We know what these guys are.
So let's talk about a couple running back so there may be under $6500.
Some of those non elite guys who do we like in there, man? There are so many running backs.
I feel like I keep creating lineups because I want to get some of these running backs into my line up on def.
You're talking 65 or under.
You know, Miles Sanders was the guy.
But as we know today, he's not going to Washington, so he's going to be out week one.
I'm sure we'll get to Boston Scott in those guys here in a little bit.
We go further down the price point, but if you're talking just under 6500, I think we have to go back to that Seattle Atlanta game, and I kind of like Todd Gurley a little bit on Lee because it's the same retort that we've talked about with, um, Bill O Brien and David Johnson, right? Like you got this running back that is out.
Now you have to prove your point, right? Like you went out, you saw Todd Gurley just like they traded DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson.
So maybe it's not like, you know, the same extent, but they went out and they said, We want Todd Gurley on our team.
We don't think he's washed.
We think he's going to be this guy, and I think that they're gonna have to feed him the ball.
You look at Seattle and with the addition to Jamal Adams, I think there are a little bit better defensively, maybe in the air than they are on the ground.
And while I still like Matt Ryan, you know he throws his running backs.
The only reason Devante Freeman was relevant last year was because it is perception work, and the only reason Todd Gurley was relevant last year was because of his touchdowns on the ground.
So if You could get a little bit of both worlds where he has a Finally, he's in a balanced offense where he catches passes.
You know, he ran routes.
He just didn't get the target.
I think he had the lowest percentage of targets.
Her route run last year.
He was like bottom three.
They just didn't throw him the ball.
Now we'll find out we won.
And if it was more about the Todd Gurley thing or if it was more of a scheme thing with Jared Goff.
But I like him along.
He's pressing right at 6100 against the Seattle defense.
That led up a lot of rushing yards last year, and you know, they didn't really add anything that they lost to Davian Clowney.
So I think they get a little softer on the defensive line.
Well, I don't sleep on my guy Jamal Adams.
They did add Jamal Adams, but I don't know if he impacts girly. He's probably an impact.
A guy like Hayden hurt, but I'm right there with you.
I love Todd Gurley.
Uh, you know, it's Week one right? You're not getting healthier than you are today and So if health is a concern autumn out there this week and you see what happens.
There's a I would say, a better than 50 50 chance that he could go for 120 total yards, arm or get you a touchdown in a handful of catches.
And that puts you in that 2025 point conversation where you're bouncing between three and four x And that's not a bad mix for a guy who's, you know, you're talking 6100 on DK.
That's not awful.
Uh, the guy I'd probably kick in is kind of an AED ending to that is actually going to be dependent on the weather.
So there are a ton of wildfires in California right now.
It's actually potentially impacting the 40 Niners game.
They may have to move it toe later in the afternoon Sunday or potentially to Monday night, or even change locations altogether.
And that guy's Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, is not likely to play due to a sickle cell trait.
Air quality is awful for him, so even if they manage to play it, it's bad enough to keep him out of the lineup, which means most of it is in line to see a lot more work than usual against in Arizona defense.
That though they've made some upgrades, I don't think they're going to stand up well against the 40 Niners offensive line and you can call me a homer.
40 Niners fan. I get it.
But you know most of the guy who can average 5 5.
5 yards a carry and he's explosive.
And so he gives you a lot, especially in a lineup that doesn't have Debo just went on the I.
You know, you've gotta use a rookie.
We don't really know what he's gonna be.
So they're gonna be leaning on guys like Kittel, Moster and Kendrick born to be alive over here.
And so it leads me to believe that he's in line for a ton of touches, which, hey touches equal volume.
Volume equals points.
Yeah, I like that a lot for anyone out there that has already made their lineups and you're looking looking pivot from mild stand.
You don't Boston Scott, because you already have that price differential between the two.
I've been pivoting to Rahima and almost all of my lineups because because of that, it's almost simultaneous of Wild Wild.
Tevin Coleman is almost guaranteed to miss the game, and I think the backup was Jeff.
It'll be Jeff Wilson and Jerick McKinnon.
And so I don't think they will for first chair and out there, you know, fresh off of his like third surgery in three years.
So, yeah, I like her.
He mustered a lot.
Well, let's talk about a couple backs.
Let's get some of those, you know, low dollar value guys, you know, who can we punt with it running back? We went and we got Lamar Jackson is our quarterback and we grabbed on Michael Thomas.
We need a cheap running back now to fill this lineup in.
So who do you like say under? I don't Let's call it 4500 under 4500 or you're getting way far down there.
You're getting way deep.
It was playable.
If it's under 4500, I think you're there.
Is on Lee a couple that you're really looking at.
We can kind of talk back and forth on these, and it's Zach Moss exactly broken up here? Sorry, I was like, Come on, give me my guy.
It's probably it.
It's Antonio Gibson, Chris Thompson.
And that's probably the end of list.
You know, You look at these guys.
I like Tevin Coleman a lot, and I'm looking at it right now.
He was at 4200 and maybe a guy before the whole situation.
You could sneak in there a little bit, but you know this at this point, he's off the table.
You know, Dalvin Cook just got his mega deal today, you know? So Alexander Madison's probably off the table against Green Bay.
Um, you could probably sneak in Chase Edmunds.
Maybe, but he's playing a tough 40 Niners defense, so I would probably pivot away from that.
You know, it's it's unfortunate because Antonio Gibson I liked a lot even when Adrian Peterson was still there is a value play, and now you almost can't play him like he's going to be so highly owned that you need to pivot away from him because I don't think he's guaranteed to give you that four X.
It was more of a punch shot anyway, because if you're trying to pair him with Christian McCaffrey, always $4000 it'll be low ownership.
But the general public, for the most part, that has caught up with Antonio Gibson at his price.
So if I had to pick one guy, it's probably Chris Thompson at this point.
And while the ceiling isn't as high as maybe it used to be, we've seen him in Washington where you know, not last year, but the year before in 2018.
It he was an RV one through the first four weeks of when he was healthy, and they're gonna have to keep up with Indianapolis.
I think Indianapolis is gonna steamroll the Jaguars this week.
They can't stop the running game.
They can't stop the passing game, so they're probably gonna be thrown into that situation.
And while you're bringing up your guys, I'm gonna look up the statistics that I saw a second ago on Gardner Minshew throwing to the running back.
But he targets the running back quite often, and we saw that last year with living for net.
Yeah, I had a ton of targets last year.
Well, so here's the thing.
I actually like Antonio Gibson.
Gibson is a kind of guy where he has, ah, that McCaffrey, you know, skill set.
And, you know, we're talking about D EFS, and we're talking about, you know, the Milly maker going after those big GPS.
You kind of need toe have these high upside guys.
You have to play those guys, especially with this cheap.
Yeah, he's super chalk.
And usually you want to avoid super chalk.
But at this point, when the Super Chalk is four grand, you can't sacrifice being at a positional disadvantage at wide receiver.
Your other running backs slot quarterback wherever.
Because you actually paid up for a guy like Zack Moss who make it a bunch of touches.
I like him quite a bit.
I'm rostered in a few spots.
Um, you need to kind of if you're playing three lineups, Gibson needs to be in one.
If you could get yourself, you know, a third knows you're there 33%.
That's probably pretty reasonable.
I've got Gibson in probably 40 or 50% of my lineup, so I'm running on.
I think right around 20 lineups in the Milly maker, and I think I've got Gibson in e don't know.
Yeah, 40 50% of my guess.
I have to go back into a hand tally.
I haven't done that.
Yeah, for me, it's probably because I went through this morning.
It was like checking out my lineups.
And I had a lot of Antonio Gibson in their e got 20 line upset and it was pretty close to, like, 50%.
So I was like, OK, I need thio probably down.
So I pivoted a little bit to some of these other guys.
Just a couple, but yeah, 30 30%.
Probably where I'm at now, I'd be looking for the upside play, but if you're kind of, you know, if you have a main line up and you're just giving up one or two guys per line up, I just think Antonio Gibson needs to be that guy that maybe you you know, you share the wealth a little bit and get him off your roster a little more than maybe you would like only because you need that difference maker.
Well, it's happened a wide receivers, because I know we're running a little long here today, so we know the elite guys, you know, kind of running back.
We know who the elite guys were.
Well, wide receiver, we know Michael Thomas.
We know Julio. We know devante.
We know those guys are awesome, and they're always gonna return value on some level.
Um, I really am curious about the Tampa Bay New Orleans game, so you might have unquestionable.
He's a little banged up going into Week one.
He's sitting at 6900.
Chris Godwin's just above him at 7100.
Here's what I'm complaining about.
If Mike Evans doesn't go, I think I'm avoiding Godman because what I don't want to see happen is God would end up on the outside on Lattimore Marshall Lattimore covering God one on the outside.
I think it takes away a lot of goblins inherent slot value, and it may actually boost hands back.
So if Evans doesn't go, I'm out on the temple White because that seems like it makes sense to you, because I'm not sure that even make sense to me.
Oh, yeah? Oh, yeah, no.
Then you would probably be out on Tom Brady is Well, then, for all the FS.
If Mike Evans isn't good.
I have not rostered.
I love Brady for the season.
I have not rostered him on one DFS lineup, and I love this matchup.
This is a high scoring matchup.
This is a game that should have a ton of points on a fantasy points.
I am really nervous because Evans is kind of that perfect counterbalance to God one.
And we don't know what Brady's bringing to the party with the group yet we don't see them play together is no pre season.
We've seen zero live snaps and Marshall Lattimore is known toe lock down Evans.
And if Evans is playing in their matched up, God wanted to play.
You gotta have them.
But I think of Evans is out.
I'm out on both receivers.
Yeah, well, if Evans is out, I hope you don't put them in any of your lineups.
I really hope that I'm always picking DFS line until, like you know, 1 58 and 30 seconds like I'm right there up with line still checking line, but we know D hops pretty legit.
Let's talk about some mid level guys.
Let's get into that sub $6500 price point.
You know who's the Who's the guy you like in there? I want to talk about digs, but you're gonna, you know, hurt my Josh Allen.
Love that. I apparently have.
So I'm gonna skip digs, and we will.
And he's pricing at 5900, which I don't have the status in front of you.
That has to be probably the lowest he's ever been priced.
I don't know what his average was last year, but you're talking, you know, Week one.
Why healthy against the Baltimore team? That, yes, has a really good defense.
Lost Earl Thomas, their backups.
Next, the Chuck Clark are gonna be two safeties.
They're they're shuffling through that.
They're gonna have to figure out who to play.
They have Marlon Humphrey out there.
They have Marcus Peters there.
If you've watched Marcus Peters like any sort of football in any time, you know, he either makes the big play touchdowns or he's giving up a big play.
There's no in between about it.
He's just he's the guy that likes the general routes and Odell Beckham.
You know, I like perception.
By 58 Odell Beckham is a top tier athlete when it comes to running routes.
He didn't like that top percentile.
And last year I hate you down.
E time you up, I got to stop you.
We gotta get credit where credit's due.
Reception perception is Matt.
I don't know why Hadfield e have another field gate statistics that I'll bring up a little bit.
It's crazy because I live in that Harman to I follow him on Twitter.
I like this stuff, but yes, thank you for that.
But you know, he grades out well, you know, he's a dynamic wide receiver and you know, you you see the Jarvis Landry, you know, news or whatever, but he's coming off the hip injury that required surgery in the offseason.
We'll see how well he comes out.
I think bigger is going to be Mawr Mawr Kirk Cousins because of the system that they're bringing from Minnesota.
I know that's a lazy comp, but they have a really good running game, which, you know, on the subject of that I'm fading.
Nick Chubb This week I like him as a running back, and I think they'll do decent.
But against that defense, I think they're gonna throw a little bit.
And you add Derek Wolfe and plays Campbell against their That's That's kind of where I get this soda Beckham thing where I think they're gonna have to throw the ball.
And so you're gonna be hopefully fighting against Marcus Peters, who will give up those one or two big plays.
Oh, you know, in this game and pricing at 5900, I don't think there's another wide receiver with as much upside, maybe D K.
Metcalf, 5800, that offers you that four x five x that you're looking forward when your when your million dollars.
Sure, well, actually like Odell, because I really do.
Like Marcus Peters matchup.
Peters is generally an undisciplined corner, and he does give up a lot of big plays.
He also gives up a lot of penalties, and he gets frustrated easily.
So I I really like Odell Beckham there, and I could see him on like a slap go just get on the inside shoulder of Peter's making the grab, and then he's off to the races.
That's what Beckham does best did it so well in New York for years, and I really hope to see some more of that and get him in kind of that.
Steph Digs kind of route tree that we saw Stansky run in Minnesota and then Landry kind of be more of that Adam feeling.
I wouldn't be shocked to see, you know, Landry come out and a fantasy Pro's had a story about you know him.
His usage will be game dependent.
The heck out of here. Everybody's usages. Game dependent.
That's the laziest thing I've ever seen.
Jarvis Landry will not be removed from the field in favor of State Rashard Higgins.
Guys gonna be on the field catching passes with Odell Beckham.
I think both of those guys are good plays at 5900.
The guy I like, though in that sub 6500 is actually Keenan Allen a little more expensive than your guys.
He's right on the ceiling there.
But Cincinnati has nothing on the back half.
Their secondary is bad.
The safety's air good.
They're good tacklers.
They're not really great in coverage.
And so my expectation is that Tyronn Taylor is gonna be feeding Keenan Allen, especially with Mike Williams being out so looking at that receiver group.
It's gonna be all Keenan Allen all Austin Meckler All Hunter Henry.
So give me all the Keenan Allen.
I'm pretty thrilled with it.
I've been able to match him up.
Receiver wise him, D K and D. J.
Moore getting three White House all under 6600 or all at or below 6600.
And it's allowed me toe rosters up with other great players.
So, like that call outlet Z, let's try and pick up the pace.
Just a touch, because we are running a little longer than we'd like to this evening.
Is there anybody that you see that standing out saying that Sub $5000 category? Uh, that's not the Sean Jackson because, you know, that's in my guy.
That's in, like, 100% of my lineups.
You talk about it, we're going to show, Yeah, uh, not sub 5000.
But if we're going right over at 5100, it's Hollywood Brown, and this is totally you know, there's not a whole lot of statistics behind it.
Other than that second year leap, right? Like we talked about, we need we need to know what the ceiling is well.
Last year we won four receptions, 147 yard, two touchdowns.
That's your ceiling like the week winner.
That's your ceiling right there.
Greedy Williams, their first round pick from last year.
He's going to be out there. Other corner.
Grandell fit their safety that they draft in the second round, where they wanted to put on the field.
They're gonna be focused on the run game.
And so Hollywood.
Brown, who had that Lisfranc injury last year, got the screws removed in this off season.
He's fully healthy, you know.
He's gained a little bit of weight, which is good for him, because I think he was like, £176 last year when he came on Week one.
So I just see him and his, you know, really, speed in this offense is gonna have a lot of one on one coverage.
I think I like him a lot for his price.
I'll give you one of 4300, and I've been roster and in quite a few spots since Jalen Rieger, the rookie wide out for Philadelphia.
Um, I know you love to Sean Jackson, and that's fine.
No Alshon Jeffery, No Miles Sanders.
It's going to really open up a lot of touches within the offense, because I don't expect Boston Scott to get the full mile Sanders load.
So Carson Wentz is gonna be expected to carry this team.
Rigor will be operating in that primary receivable with D.
Jack's taking the top off.
So with those two guys, they could potentially both go.
You know, 3 80 a touchdown like that's not out of the realm of possibility that Washington back half is really, really bad again.
We're taking wide receivers that are just gonna bad secondaries, and Washington's is pretty bad.
So, yeah, I like I definitely like the Sean Jackson a little more when Raker wasn't supposed to play.
So I've swapped out for the Sean tradition.
Yeah, I swapped out some to Sean Jackson for some Breyer, and I've improved, you know, on some other positions in my line ups.
You know, that's what you have to do.
I try to wait till the last second to put in lineups to kind of avoid the situation, and now you're going through 20 lineups that part's kind of frustrating.
I do want to ask you one more guy that I only have in two of my lineups and it's Nikkila.
Reminds me of a lot of like that.
Calvin Benjamin for Cam Newton.
I don't really know what to expect.
Like he was like, I need some money.
I wanted to diversify my line.
It's a little bit.
So, like I said, he's only into my lineups as, like a flex option play, but maybe something to keep an eye on.
It was a really good athlete coming out of Arizona State, really, you know, sound route runner.
So keep an eye on him.
If he catches a touchdown and earns a little bit of praise from Cam Newton or Bill Belichick, check this week we could be talking about on next week on the DFS show.
That's very possible on Cam.
Does love a big guy receiver.
Um, let's fire over the tight end.
Uh, you know, so we know little we know Andrew's, you know, Waller and Earth's air up there and kind of that elite category right now.
Um, you know, let's talk about only tight ends under five grand.
You know, we know we know who the elite guys are, and we know Earth is gonna be in line for his touches.
And But, I mean, let's get some of these other lesser known lesser owned guys.
Who do you like? Yeah, there's a lot of them down there, and it's really easy to pivot from Kittel and Hurts and Waller because, you know, they're gonna be high owned.
Um, I have Uh huh.
A lot of Hawkinson at 4200.
I have a lot of Jack Doyle.
At 30 I lost the price on him. Once again.
It's like 34 36 at 3600 and Chris Herndon at 3300.
I mean, those guys, they're just so easy toe plug in, save a couple of $2000 and, you know, spend that money on the wide receivers and running backs you want.
Jack Doyle is definitely a floor play like we need to get that out of the way right now, like he is not the ceiling play you normally want in your line ups.
But if you have that high ceiling playing, you're like, Look, I just need to tight end who I know is probably going to get me at least 12 points.
It's probably Jack Doyle, like six receptions, 60 yards and a touchdown.
That's what you're praying for.
But it's very realistic that he gets that.
He's gonna be the safety valve.
He's gonna play into the line of scrimmage.
You know they have.
Michael Pittman is like the Red Zone threat.
They have the running game.
But Pittman's a rookie, you know.
So Jack Doyle, who could easily sneak in.
And he's real sure handed.
You know, he's a very, you know, secure guy.
So he's one that I like.
And then Chris Herndon is very good athlete to that.
Had the injuries last year very underrated.
I don't think he'll ever be under, probably if he has a good week. One.
He won't be under 4000 the rest of the season, because if he has a good week, woman is because people who will and there's no other traffic impact was there.
It is Jamison Crowder.
It's shot Perriman, maybe for a long bomb, and then it's him.
I like Herndon. I'm right there with you on Herndon.
You know that's the Bills secondary.
They've got, you know, Travis White and he's gonna take away the primary outside wide receiver.
They're not gonna move him inside with Crowder or Herndon.
Um, you know, they just lost Josh Norman in that secondary.
There is really good safety play in Buffalo.
They don't allow a lot of points to the tight end.
But, you know, Herndon is one of those guys where he's athletic enough where they can move him around in a way where he could probably get a few touches.
The Jets expect to be trailing in this game quite a bit.
So you might just get some garbage time at the tail end of this thing and maybe get a cheap touchdown.
And so, for 3300, it's just the side of a pump play.
I'm gonna give you one.
That's Ah, sleeper where he might be.
You know, we're talking deep sleeping like coma.
Uh, give me Dan Arnold from Arizona.
E knew you were gonna e Yeah, Here's the deal down.
Actually, he's a body athletic dude.
Right? So you you hear the name Dan Arnold? What you don't think of as a guy that runs the field like Kelsey, her stern burger or or any of these kinds of guys.
But they loved him near the end zone.
Last year, he was third on the team and goal line targets, and I expect against the 40 Niners who they should be trailing against to see plenty of work against your whiskey tart tarts.
Not great in coverage.
He's more of that box safety, kind of the Landing Collins mold.
He's a good tackler, but he's not necessarily great coverage.
I could do, you know again, Arnold.
Anyway, he's looking down the middle of the field, making a few big plays for 3500 again, just the side of a punt play.
So he's a guy where if you're just making a yellow line up, which you know, I love to do that from time to time, just give me a bunch of dudes where I'm lying.
They've got a floor that literally zero, but he's got an upside that could be in the early thirties.
Yeah, exactly on he's that guy.
So if you roster Dan Arnold, you're really taking on the risk of saying you know what effort I'm going all in and I'm putting this guy down and I'm if he gets zero, I could live with it.
But if he gets 30 I'm getting paid.
So give you some Dan Arnold, you know, especially a tight in position.
This is true for long season.
You you have to go for the touchdown upside of these guys like, yes, the catches.
And there is, You know, the yards are great for a guy like Darren Waller, but if Darren Waller you know, last year he had a game, we had 104 134 receiving yards, didn't have a touchdown like that.
It's great, but that doesn't help you, you know, for your end goal.
You need that guy that oh, he can have.
He can somehow get end up with 130 rushing yards, but he's guaranteed the touchdown, and that's why you look at guys like Hawkins Were Kenny Golladay is out.
Dan Arnold, who's a red zone threat.
All it takes is one big Darren Ardell play, you know, some random time in the second quarter on a 40 yard corner out and then you're happy and then he still has the touchdown upside.
So that's why I like these later. Tight ends.
You know, we've talked about Hawkinson a little bit.
That's probably why we end up fading, hating Hurst a little bit because there's just so many weapons there.
While he will get the receptions and the yards, you know, he has to face Jamal Adams one.
But it's the touchdown upside.
And there there are plenty of touchdown guys there, right? So let's hit the Flex now with the Flex.
I mean, it could be anybody, right? We've talked about a bunch of dudes, and you can plug any of these guys into that flex spot.
But we're gonna focus on Let's grab a guy that we like.
That's maybe South of five grand.
Let's we like to try and find those you know? Who are those cheaper guys that weaken roster up.
You know, you've already mentioned to Sean Jackson.
You know, you've already talked about we talked about Kendrick born.
So who else do you like? Is there anybody floating around down there that you're kind of like, You know, that's worthwhile.
Let me put that dude in the flex.
Can I say Curtis Samuel not sound like a Curtis Samuel Truther.
Um, I love to do that.
You're I mean, if anybody's been following your work, they know that you are, in fact, a Curtis Samuel, especially how we found you and brought you on the gridiron ratings.
It was your Curtis Samuel love between is my Curtis Samuel love.
I will avoid Curtis Samuel.
I needed to see what Teddy Bridgewater does.
I just know that he's a great athlete.
Um, I think you know you need in these flecks options thoughts We need to go wide receiver, right? Like I'm gonna put the Boston Scots if you're not gonna play the intimate Gibson with guaranteed workloads.
And it's under this if it's just like 5200 under range, it has to be a wide receiver.
The hit rate on wide receivers performing three x four X is a lot higher than it is for running backs.
And that's just because it comes down to the simple fact that it catches worth more than a carry.
And it's a lot easier to break off a 40 yard catch than it is to break off a 40 yard run.
So when you get into these plays someone I like.
It's, you know, he's gonna be in a really high scoring game.
There's gonna be a lot of passing.
And then I you know, it gets really hard because it's really you get back to the guys We got to talk about Antonio Gibson.
Boston Scott Like it's gonna be those guys.
They're gonna be looking in your flex option.
But I do like Curtis.
Samuel is like a well, you know, someone someone could break off on this Vegas defense that Yeah, they're still trying to find their identity.
Why can't it be here to Samuel? Absolutely.
Yeah. I mean, yeah, I don't see anything wrong with all of that.
I mean, Curtis Samuel D J.
More of those guys were both, you know, in line for plenty of touches.
Uh, the guy that I think I like here is gonna be, I would imagine pretty low owned.
And that's gonna be Justin Jefferson.
So if they put Adam feeling out that number one spot where Digs was playing last season and they moved Jefferson fully into the slot, which is what he did in college ls We caught a gazillion balls from Joe Burrow in the slot and then really refined route tree. Already.
The kid can run good routes. He's fast.
He could do a little bit of everything he doesn't do.
He's not a world beater in any one category, right? He doesn't have the best hand, but they're really good.
He's not the fastest guy, but he's fast to know he's.
He does it all pretty well for 40 100 against Green Bay, all Green Bay has in their secondary.
That's really worth anything, is J.
Alexander and he's getting out of feeling and he's gonna follow feeling around.
So go ahead and take a person in a game where Minnesota is probably gonna be trailing and they're gonna have to throw it to somebody.
So Jefferson Herb Smith is another guy worth looking at.
So some of those you know, secondary and tertiary Minnesota pass catchers might be worth a look because Cousins is the season dude, and he could get it to the open guy.
Whether it's Jefferson, Herb Smith, Olabisi Johnson.
Any of those guys were definitely worth a look of the opponent.
Wider is here or flex.
Yeah, and for you know, everyone you know, grades out is a really good wide receiver, even on the outside.
So this is a reason to fade.
Adam feeling If you have him in any of your you know, any of your DFS lineup, their season long league, he's a really good Polish wide receiver in the slot and on the outside, so it wouldn't it wouldn't be a detriment to his receiving game if Justin Jefferson, Cesme or, um, slot work for the entire season.
So I want to get your you know your opinion on, you know, two things real quick, some some player versus guys that I've really been trying to figure out what I want to do.
And I talked about it yesterday whenever I came on its Marlon Mack against Jonathan Taylor.
And it's crazy that Jonathan Taylor is actually priced more.
I think 5700 is this price versus Marlon Mack 5300.
Now we can guarantee that Marlon Max gonna have the first carry of the game.
So my question to you is, do you think Marlon Matt conduce enough on this first drive and possibly fall in for a touchdown like you're paying playing probability at this point, right? Versus Jonathan Taylor.
They're gonna be up.
Maybe he takes over in the second half and breaks off a big run of his own.
So where you playing that Marlon Mack vs Jonathan Taylor? You know that game that we're all trying to figure out? I'm not taking Marlon Mack anywhere I am.
I am taking some Jonathan Taylor.
I have him on rosters all over the place and I'm running lineups of DK with him.
Jonathan Taylor is probably the closest thing we have to Adrian Peterson.
When he came out from just a sheer size speed strength standpoint.
You know, Zeke is a better pure runner, but Taylor has three physical attributes as a just a powerful guy that can run you over, run around, you run past you.
It doesn't matter.
He is going to be in a position to put that on full display, that Jaguar's team is absolutely obliterated.
They got rid of all their defensive talent and Joe Schobert C on Lee, you know, run stopping asset.
They have because the Josh Allen, the past Russia, I don't count him.
The rest of that team is a mess.
Marlon Mack might get the first carry.
May I think Taylor out carries them.
He gets more yards, he gets more touchdowns if they both score and he may get fewer catches, Mac might get a few catches, but it's going to quickly become the Jonathan Taylor Show, and I expect him to have the same kind of oh my gosh, response that we gave quite Edwards layer after Thursday night's game after the Sunday Games were wrapped up and they're gonna say, Oh, well, these two great rookie backs blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Taylor has the kind of upside where he could be a 1400 yard back this year.
Yes, then, behind that old line comes around.
There's no reason for him to not go absolutely bananas.
Now, my raw string him up.
He 700 is my number one.
That probably not.
There's enough guys where I'm kind of I'm taking him.
I'm keeping him in some spots, but I'm not going all in.
I'm probably taking in about 30 ish percent getting fair exposure, but I still want some other guys to like I'm I'm pretty heavy on the Austin hecklers of the world.
I wanted a couple shares of Joe Mixon and I hopped in on those cheaper backs and I got some McCaffrey.
So I'm kind of bounced around.
I got a little bit of everybody, But don't be afraid to go after Taylor.
I have all the confidence in the world and I think he's gonna be a monster.
I'm not afraid of Marlon Mack at all.
All right, That's all I wanted to hear.
And then one quick, you could just pick one.
You don't have to, you know, go super and death.
And they were running kind of late here unintentionally.
But Tyler Lockett at 6500 or D.
K. Metcalf 5800.
Lock it e s e have a ridiculous man crush on the calf.
You know, Niners fan.
It hurts me to have that kind of man crush on a Seahawks player, but he's unbelievable, but he's still very wrong.
I, despite the stretch we saw last year and lock it, was hurt.
I don't think he's Russell Wilson's primary guy.
I still expect market to lead and catches get plenty of yard and still be that you know, any play could be a big play type guy, So give me lock it there, especially for the price.
And in that matchup where I don't know who's gonna cover him, they don't have anybody in their secondary that can run with them.
So it could get really messy for Atlanta Pretty fast.
Yeah, de case to the guy that you pair with Hollywood Brown and maybe other guy.
I think I have them paired with, like, Hollywood brown and Henry rugs, where it's like if all three of these guys hit, you're going to get, you know, times your money back because they're all gonna be, you know, top 12 guys.
But that's the game you play right and, you know probabilities is what it.
Well, speaking of probability, we won't spend a lot of time on defense.
There's really only two that I'm looking at.
It's the number one, actually.
No, there's three.
I'm sorry, the number one defense, which is the Bills 3700 against the Jets.
For obvious reasons, the Jets offense just isn't very good.
We don't expect to score a lot of points.
Um, yeah, The Washington defense is the lowest price Defense 2000 playing the Eagles, and you know they have lost Miles Sanders.
That aligns really beat up.
And I have a sneaking su****ion Chase Young is going to make a statement week one.
So we'll see how that plays out.
And then the other one that I have a little bit of exposure to was actually the Colts defense.
I took them against the Jaguars, so I was kind of like, you know, they had to forest Buck there, you know, they brought in Xavier Rhodes, even though he's probably washed.
You know, you got various Leonard.
They got some dudes on that defense, and it's possible they could lock up that run game enforcement shooter.
Win the game, and I like ornament shoe.
I mean, everyone loves the door, but I don't know if I trust him to put the game on his shoulders and and win an important division game in Week one with minimal offseason refs.
Yeah, and that's all.
What it really comes down to your right is they have no defense.
So the Colts could get off to an early lead pretty quickly.
And the Colts they're rushing defense is really good, so they could be forced into a position to have to throw the ball mint.
You will, and they have a decent pass rush.
I don't have my my thing up in front of me, but I think they were, like, 12 and Sacks last year, so I mean, they could get after the quarterback a little bit.
All it takes is a strip fumble touchdown.
And that's really what you're playing for is the touchdowns.
Which is why the Bills is so high.
Which is why we like the Washington football team, is they have a really good pass rush.
They have, like, four first round picks in that front seven.
So, you know, I like all three of those plays a lot.
Well, we're closing in on an hour, which is about 30 minutes longer than we usually would like to run.
So, uh, you know, we don't get stuck with us. Thanks for being there.
Vikings fan. 39.
Thank you so much for the tip. We appreciate you.
I love you very much.
If you guys have any specific DFS questions, right? Fielding lineup, very games.
Cash, G p p. Whatever.
You hit us up on Twitter.
Uh, my handle is at NFL.
Di Matteo D I m a t t e o or at gridiron ratings.
Kyle is at Fantasy Reserve.
Feel free to hit us up.
We're happy to help you out.
Anyway, we can, uh, kind of any closing words.
I really wish Darius Slate was playing in the Sunday morning games.
E could put him in my lineup.
I hope everyone wins their fantasy leagues this week, and hopefully one of us wins a million dollars.
Can't wait. Absolutely. Good luck.
Everybody. Feel free to hit us up.
Have a great night.
And a happy Sunday gridiron ratings channel will be back with you.
Noon tomorrow for a little pregame show.
We're gonna go around the horn, talk about all the games, the fantasy relevant players.
Make sure your starts sits there all set up.
Feel free to tune in.
Then we look forward to seeing you until then.
You can find the button bottom right