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00:00:04
three.
00:00:05
Dio, can you hear me do this like it is super loud and annoying.
00:00:08
It's no out.
00:00:10
Okay, we're good anyway.
00:00:11
Just kind of sounds like you're like going like this against the might.
00:00:15
Should be good.
00:00:16
Now let me when you tweeted out another link here.
00:00:26
Well, dio dio share on Twitter.
00:00:34
Okay, just went out.
00:00:44
Okay? Those watching the replay? Apologies.
00:00:50
As you can see, a bit different background for me.
00:00:52
This is not ah, well, we put together a green screen.
00:00:56
This is a new background because of the living group sitting like 2 ft away from my TV, where the router is with a like a 1 ft cord plugged into my laptop with a TV tray and ah, shoebox elevating by computer.
00:01:13
My £110 dog on my lap.
00:01:16
It's just his great time over here, but we are here to talk about betting.
00:01:20
Ah, where you cut off in the middle of a thought on the Broncos? Yeah, uh, all I was saying about the Broncos.
00:01:28
Really? Um, as I pulled up their schedule here again, but they played the Titans in week one.
00:01:34
That is in Denver.
00:01:36
Um, I think.
00:01:37
I think you know, again, as as I have mentioned on the grief last dream, I just think it's gonna be a struggle for a lot of offenses in Week one anyways, because you have a lot of contact or time together.
00:01:52
Anything.
00:01:53
I don't know what Ryan Tan.
00:01:54
It's gonna look like I'm Derrick Henry, probably still going to dominate.
00:01:57
But if you can focus a lot on him and shocking down, you know von Miller, um, that Denver defense still takes care of business.
00:02:04
You gotta go up and play in the elements.
00:02:06
I think it's a favorable matchup for the Broncos, Week one.
00:02:09
But then in the following weeks, they play the Steelers Buccaneers, get a bit of a break with the Jets, and they play the Patriots.
00:02:16
So it's not gonna be a very easy start.
00:02:19
Um, no matter what you think about the Patriots about Cam Newton at that point, they're gonna have four weeks under their belt.
00:02:24
Bill Belichick's gonna have stuff figured out.
00:02:26
Figure out how this team's gonna operate and I could be a a bit of a rough start there for the Broncos after they steal Week one against the Titans, but I do lean on the over 7.
00:02:38
5 just to reiterate.
00:02:40
I think they could hit eight wins.
00:02:42
Um, and I don't want to lay the juice on an under bed, either, so I'd rather risk a little bit more on a plus 1 18 bet over 7.5.
00:02:51
So those are my feelings on the product, and I need you to cool it a little bit with a week one that $1000 Parlay needs that Titans win at the very end.
00:03:00
So let's if I have to hedge, I will.
00:03:03
But knowing me, I probably still wouldn't Ah, that is a Monday game next Monday night game.
00:03:08
So second Monday night came to the very last game of the week.
00:03:13
So if it comes down to that, I trust I'll hopefully make a smart decision.
00:03:18
But we will find out.
00:03:20
But we'll get into that game a different day.
00:03:23
I do think Titans when? But let's go.
00:03:26
Noah.
00:03:27
Zach has a 53 to 1 on 19 barley.
00:03:30
Is that I believe yeah, Week one.
00:03:33
I think it looks pretty delish works.
00:03:34
There's one or two teams that you know.
00:03:37
Ah, bit questionable, but 53 to 1.
00:03:40
I mean, that's that's a heck of a payoff.
00:03:43
Worth it? Worth it all calculated Teoh, Eat all nine lakhs.
00:03:48
How about that? Easy.
00:03:50
I like it.
00:03:52
The hard, uh, not hard to pull off a 19 parlay when you pick nine winners.
00:03:56
A kid winners it, but easy.
00:04:00
Let's move on to the Super Bowl champs, kicking off Thursday at Kansas City Chiefs.
00:04:05
Last year they went 12 and four when Total sat at 11.5.
00:04:10
This is a tricky one for me.
00:04:12
I think it is at a really good spot.
00:04:14
I have them winning 12 games again, so it is slightly over.
00:04:18
But it is.
00:04:19
It's right on that mine.
00:04:20
I feel like they are injury or two away from swaying a couple games.
00:04:24
So what's your thoughts on the Chiefs? Yes, Speaking of injuries, you got to remember that the Chiefs won 12 and four last year, while Patrick Mahomes missed a few weeks.
00:04:34
Should have missed return, probably made a miraculous recovery with that knee.
00:04:38
Matt Moore wasn't awful of, but they did only lose one game under Matt Moore.
00:04:42
They lost one early in the season and then they lost the game that afternoon, homes came back, and then they went on a nine with a nine a game win streak to win the Super Bowl.
00:04:51
Of course, I think the Chiefs are at least as good, if not better than here.
00:04:56
I haven't officially announced this on Twitter yet, but I think I'm gonna roll with the Chiefs.
00:05:01
Is back to back Super Bowl champions.
00:05:03
UM, 11.
00:05:05
5 is, you know, a bit of a higher line that I would like.
00:05:10
I do like that push.
00:05:11
So I wish it was sent at 11.
00:05:13
I think it's entirely possible that, like you said, they drop a game or they do have an injury.
00:05:18
Something happens, and they are that 11 5 type team.
00:05:22
Uh, even with that being said, I'm going to roll with the over 11.
00:05:27
5 minus 1 21.
00:05:29
I just don't think you can bet against this Chiefs team.
00:05:31
I just don't think you can bet um, against Patrick Mahomes.
00:05:35
And if he is there for all 16 games, there's no reason they shouldn't go at least 12 and four again.
00:05:40
So I'm taking the over a little bit of juice at 1 21.
00:05:43
But that's fine.
00:05:45
Yeah.
00:05:46
Points, but has the best odds minus 1 20.
00:05:49
Bet MGM has the best under odds at plus 1 10.
00:05:55
Yeah, what's more likely, they win 12 games or 11 games? It really does seem like 12 right? But still losing four games, you know? Yeah, it's exactly And and like I said, they did it.
00:06:10
Ah, with Matt Moore.
00:06:12
He was.
00:06:13
He only lost 11 game last year.
00:06:15
But then Patrick Mahomes wasn't fully himself on that first week.
00:06:18
He came back, played fine.
00:06:19
But, you know, it was.
00:06:20
Still, they were still timid with him a bit and ended up dropping that game as well.
00:06:23
If passed from homes, is healthy all 16 weeks.
00:06:27
If even if you know, they even if cried, cried Edwards, who Layer isn't everything that they're building among up to be.
00:06:34
I think he's still gonna be a serviceable running back.
00:06:36
They have not really had started running backs in their backfield for the most part anyway.
00:06:41
Kareem Hunt obviously was a big part of that team.
00:06:45
He's gone.
00:06:46
They go on and win a Super Bowl so they don't need a stud running back in order to find success.
00:06:51
They've got a lot of talent on the outside, I think, Um, I think, Ah, what's his name? I just had it in my mind.
00:07:00
Um, it'll come to me.
00:07:02
Meco Hardman.
00:07:03
Thank you.
00:07:04
Um, I think Michael Hardman is a underrated player in fantasy.
00:07:09
This year, I was able to get him really, really deep in a few of my drafts.
00:07:12
I think he's gonna play a big part in this Kansas City offenses.
00:07:15
Well, I just don't see them losing.
00:07:18
Six games are five or six games.
00:07:21
Excuse me? Not very easily, at least, right.
00:07:24
Like there's still wiggle room for them to have a couple down weeks.
00:07:29
We're not predicting them to go 16.
00:07:30
And now here, um, they're just not built toe have a Super Bowl hangover.
00:07:36
You know, there's some teams where you can predict it, but yeah, it would take a lot, I think.
00:07:42
Yeah.
00:07:43
And I think, um, you know, you see, a lot of guys will get paid and they just don't have the career changes.
00:07:50
They don't have a great year after whatever.
00:07:52
I think the exact opposite things gonna happen. Patrick Mahomes.
00:07:55
I think he's still gonna get better.
00:07:56
People also forget I'm maybe they don't but like they don't give enough credit to pass from homes age.
00:08:01
This guy's only been in the league for a few years.
00:08:03
He's really young.
00:08:04
He's going to get better.
00:08:05
He's going to keep him very coachable.
00:08:07
Guy is, he's gonna win more Super Bowls, and I think this year is just as possible as any other year that they repeat.
00:08:14
Um, I think Andy Reid is in a great, great mindset.
00:08:18
Ah, prepared to take this team to high, high high levels, So if you're betting against them, I'm not quite sure what thought processes I would like to hear.
00:08:29
It may be, ah, if any of you that are watching live or anybody that watches the replay of this stream are down on the Chiefs, for whatever reason, please enlighten Zack and I, but I just don't see completely agree.
00:08:45
Let's go to Sin City.
00:08:47
New team.
00:08:48
Las Vegas Raiders 17 and nine last season over under set at 7.5.
00:08:55
Man.
00:08:56
I've been going back and forth on this.
00:08:57
I had them winning eight games, which would be the over, but who? I don't know, man.
00:09:02
This secondary is horrendous.
00:09:06
Um, I'm really debating about it cause I need a lack this in probably tonight.
00:09:13
I'll probably go seven games.
00:09:14
Theo under what's your thoughts? Yeah, I agree with you there.
00:09:19
Draftkings has this line at seven.
00:09:22
So either way you take it.
00:09:23
You have that potential for a push, but the under is is giving you a favorable line at minus one or four.
00:09:29
I think the chances are they go under.
00:09:32
Chances are a lot higher than going over anyways.
00:09:35
Ah, I got him at seven and nine at their best.
00:09:37
I've said it many times.
00:09:39
I just don't think eventually wants this Raiders team find success once grew and find success.
00:09:45
I just don't think it's going to be Derek Carr That's under center.
00:09:49
I think they're gonna have to move on from him at some point.
00:09:52
I think this might be his final year there, especially if they do go seven and nine again.
00:09:57
Then all of a sudden you're looking at, you know, um, Gruden's staring at Year five of his 10 year contract and they haven't won.
00:10:04
You know they've won as many games.
00:10:06
The Chiefs have won in the last two years like that's not.
00:10:09
That's not something that you just can keep rolling forward and try and push through their building up talent around them.
00:10:15
Obviously, we like Darren Waller.
00:10:16
We like Josh Jacobs, but they're gonna have to be really good in their division.
00:10:21
Um, because they are playing, you know, the Saints Patriots of the Buccaneers, all the same themes that we've been talking about through the A F C West here, Not easy games.
00:10:33
And, ah, teams that the Raiders have not matched up well with in the past.
00:10:39
I think that the Chargers air gonna have their number.
00:10:41
I think the Chiefs are gonna beat him twice.
00:10:43
And the Broncos, they're not gonna be an easy out for them as well.
00:10:47
Eso the Raiders might have another tough year, and then again, I was sudden.
00:10:51
You're looking at a 10 year, $100 million contract and you're already halfway through this thing.
00:10:56
You haven't even really sniffed the playoffs, so I think it's another average year.
00:11:00
I'm gonna take the under seven just because that's the more favorable line.
00:11:05
So either way, I think you might push this because I do think they're gonna win seven games, but more likely gonna win six games in eight games, I would say in their first round, rookie cornerback is out with an injury.
00:11:19
I think you might be missing a couple games.
00:11:22
That's huge, because the secondary already wasn't good.
00:11:25
Now they're horrendous and at risk of losing to the Panthers Week one, because all the Panthers want to do is pass.
00:11:31
That's the thing, too, is this offense has not been known to churn out points.
00:11:34
Eso if you ain't got a really bad defense and they're gonna have to score 30 to 35 points to compete every week, that's I don't like that.
00:11:43
I think there are offensive line still solid.
00:11:45
I think Josh Jacobs is good, I think.
00:11:48
Losing title.
00:11:49
Williams the wide receivers.
00:11:50
A big loss cause now you're relying on two rookie starting wide receivers and, ah, Hunter Renfroe, who's a second year, I think, second or 30 receiver and Darren Waller, who's kind of a second year tight knit.
00:12:04
He's been the league for a little bit but is not super experience, so there's a lot of inexperience and overall I've been discounting teams with inexperienced this year just because of lack of prep time, lack of time together and stuff like that.
00:12:18
So along the same pattern there.
00:12:21
But just talking about dare car really quick cause I was on a couple podcasts.
00:12:25
We're talking to Matt McCoy, another expert in the industry, And we were We were discussing their car for a little bit. Interesting.
00:12:34
Staff came up.
00:12:36
Doesn't matter. The down.
00:12:37
So 1st, 2nd, 3rd or fourth down their cards, average death.
00:12:42
The target is essentially the same on every single down, which is horrible.
00:12:47
That's crazy.
00:12:48
It's crazy just because it just shows mentally he doesn't.
00:12:52
He doesn't get it like physically.
00:12:54
I think he's a good quarterback.
00:12:55
Physically, Mentally.
00:12:57
I don't think he gets It shows he's not passing to the sticks or just trying to pick up.
00:13:02
You know what he needs or he doesn't understand what he's seeing or the game around him.
00:13:08
And you don't Grudin.
00:13:10
He is an exercise in those guy, and you need to know and love football, and it doesn't seem I dare car is that so? I think you're right.
00:13:18
I don't think he's the guy there.
00:13:20
Situational football is another big phrase that Gruden would always use.
00:13:25
He would use that in his Q B camp TV show when he was in the Monday night booth.
00:13:30
Situational football and what you just said about Derek Carr does not make me think at all.
00:13:34
He, you know, understands or even, um, I guess, processes the different situations that you're in.
00:13:42
When do you need to throw it? Were throw a pass the sticks one commune when do not throw it deep and take the yards that are being given to you underneath all of those types of things.
00:13:50
If you're averaging the same exact thing down to one through four, that nuts agreed.
00:13:58
Let's move on to the last time the division and a team I've been talking up all offseason, so I'm sure you already know which side I'm on.
00:14:05
Los Angeles Chargers When five and 12 last year quarterback switched to Tyrod Taylor this year over under set at seven.
00:14:13
I'm going over before the Derwin James injury.
00:14:16
I had them winning 10 games.
00:14:18
I have it all the way down to eight games now and I think if I knew they were going to get Earl Thomas, which I think they will.
00:14:24
I would put them at nine.
00:14:26
So I think they're comfortably in.
00:14:28
Over.
00:14:29
What about you? As do I? I have them at 18 8.
00:14:33
Still pretty comfortable over though, cause I have them dropping.
00:14:36
Maybe one random game.
00:14:37
I think they have all the potential to go hide in seven.
00:14:40
Listen to the front end of this schedule.
00:14:42
I believe they could go five and eight through the front end of the schedule of the EPA.
00:14:46
Favorable Week 10.
00:14:48
So all you gotta do is find three more wins on the back end of the schedule.
00:14:52
They start off the season with the Bangles.
00:14:54
Tough matchup week, too.
00:14:55
With the Chiefs.
00:14:56
Obviously probably gonna lose that one.
00:14:58
But then you go, Uh, handers, you got jets two weeks after that.
00:15:03
Dolphins after that Jag wires after that.
00:15:05
And then Raiders after that.
00:15:07
Then here comes the ah, the week 10 by week that I was telling you about.
00:15:13
Then it gets a little tougher with the Broncos Bills, Patriots, Falcons on, and you end the season with Raiders Broncos chiefs.
00:15:21
But if you can find a way to pick up three of those games on the back end, which all be it will be difficult.
00:15:28
I mean, by that time of the season, the Patriots are not gonna be an easy out Falcons.
00:15:32
Who knows what they're gonna be.
00:15:33
But they should be, Ah, competitive this year.
00:15:36
And then you got three division games, including the Chiefs, to end the season.
00:15:40
But all you gotta do is find two or three games on that back in.
00:15:43
You're gonna catch this bet again.
00:15:45
Let me just really quickly read the teams that they're playing early on.
00:15:50
I never mind.
00:15:51
I won't cause my computer fourth closed like it always does.
00:15:54
Um, all right, let's go. L A Chargers.
00:16:02
No, I can't write hate when that happens.
00:16:05
Anyways, Their plan.
00:16:07
The Panthers, the Bangles.
00:16:09
Ah, bad teams.
00:16:10
And they're playing.
00:16:11
I'm always to the Jets and they get to play in three weeks in a row.
00:16:13
So, uh, you can stomp.
00:16:15
It doesn't matter how what teams are playing.
00:16:17
If you can stop teams three weeks in a row going into the bye week, get yourself feeling really good.
00:16:23
Even with the competitive back end of the schedule, I think the charges will be able to piece something together.
00:16:28
Derwin James.
00:16:29
Being out is a big loss for me there. Derwin James.
00:16:32
Two huge hater.
00:16:33
If you think back to his Florida State State days, he would just blow people up safety that was always in the backfield.
00:16:39
He's a good player, but he's not the whole defense.
00:16:42
You still got studs like Ingram and Bosa.
00:16:45
And who knows? You might have some young guys to that are gonna be able to eat because of the offensive line Gonna be so focused on those other pass rushers.
00:16:52
I think this team has potential to win even more games than were saying, but 18 8 seems like a pretty safe, but so I'm gonna try and catch the over 7.
00:17:01
5 lots of juice.
00:17:03
So it seems like the line makers ah, didn't want to move that line up it all.
00:17:08
But I wanted to make you pay for it.
00:17:10
If you were gonna take the over.
00:17:11
It's at minus 1 41 which is one of the, uh, larger lines that we have talked about here overall.
00:17:19
But I don't think you're gonna have to worry about it.
00:17:22
No, and they have playmakers, every single level of their defense, which is huge and talking about the secondary.
00:17:30
You know, they have Casey Hayward, who we know is one of the best corners in the league.
00:17:35
They brought in Chris Harris Jr.
00:17:36
Who's another one of the best corners in league.
00:17:39
I can't remember the second safety they have, but he's a stud outside of Derwin James, then Gus Bradley, defensive coordinator connection with Earl Thomas in Seattle.
00:17:48
I would assume moral times comes in eventually, once the dust settles and they can figure out what the contract is.
00:17:54
But if he comes into play safety for the Chargers, I don't know, man like, I don't think this team loses that many games and just decide No talking about fantasy for a little bit, the schedule you just talked about if they're not losing those games, Tyrod Taylor is that dude for the season, right like that, you can trust him for fantasy, and this is one of the biggest sleepers and fantasy for especially quarterback.
00:18:21
He is, I think, like 1/30 quarterback going off the board, maybe lower.
00:18:27
So he's free and he is going to be a start this year.
00:18:31
Yeah, and I I think to? The more I look at it, I just don't see Herbert getting much time because you're gonna be in position to make the playoffs at least compete for Not if you can go five and five and three, maybe even six and three through those first 10 weeks up until you're bye week.
00:18:49
You're not gonna throw Justin Herbert in there even if you lose.
00:18:53
You know, 34 games in a row when it's coming down to the stretch and you end the season with three division games.
00:18:58
That's in the house when you throw in your rookie quarterback for the first time.
00:19:01
So as long as they can get through Week 10 and having over 500 record, I think Tyronn Taylor job is very safe.
00:19:09
Um, I think he's gonna play just fine.
00:19:11
Tyrod Taylor has played fine at every single one of this stops.
00:19:15
It's just none of this seems that he played for were ready for that type of quarterback in that type of situation.
00:19:21
I guess they were still looking for bigger and better.
00:19:24
They were still up and coming with the Bills and the Browns and they were bad enough teams to get in position for a very high draft pick, a high, highly touted quarterback.
00:19:35
I don't think that's where the Chargers are right now.
00:19:37
Obviously, they got their quarterback already last year with Herbert, but I think that the team is better right now than probably both the Bills and the Browns were during Tyrone's 10 year at both of those organizations.
00:19:52
I think he's going toe play just fine, and I think the Chargers are going to compete.
00:19:57
Those last few weeks are gonna be tough because you're gonna have the Broncos who are also problem possibly going to be competing.
00:20:04
The Chiefs Week 17.
00:20:07
You might be able to pick that game up because the Chiefs probably will be resting their starters.
00:20:11
I'm sure their playoff spot is going to be safe and must have playing for number one overall seed or something like that.
00:20:18
Ah, but the back end of the schedule is going to be Tyrod.
00:20:21
Taylor is time to shine and, man, if he's able to win like nine games with this team or something like that, I I feel bad for him because it's almost like he's gonna be booted out again.
00:20:33
Same same thing is his last two teams.
00:20:35
Even though he played just fine.
00:20:38
He doesn't turn the ball over that much, but there is a guy already in the wings waiting S o.
00:20:44
I think it's his team this year beyond this year.
00:20:47
I mean, he's gonna have to ball out.
00:20:48
He's gonna be active.
00:20:49
Probably like an M V P candidate.
00:20:51
In order to work here is John for next year as well, But so far, our throughout the season.
00:20:57
Excuse me, Tyrod Taylor seems like a guy you can bank on and also going back to the, uh, charges defense.
00:21:03
They create a lot of turnovers.
00:21:04
Casey Hayward is always towards the top of the interception list.
00:21:08
He's perennial All star.
00:21:10
He's a guy that the Packers just left.
00:21:12
Walk away for God knows what reason, and he's he's made a home for himself out in the sun out in San Diego and Los Angeles, obviously loves playing in that defense, and he's not a guy that quarterbacks are afraid to throw at, either, which just benefits him even more because he's a good cover guy and he's a ball hawk.
00:21:30
He's he's ah, interception maniac.
00:21:32
So I think Tyrod Taylor and that offense could have extra possessions all throughout the course of the season.
00:21:38
Should win.
00:21:39
Some games should be great and fantasy one of the lowest drink defense of units in the entire league, according to the consensus.
00:21:48
Except for this guy, for whatever reason, on fantasy post my 10th ring defense this week, which is 18 spots higher than the consensus.
00:21:57
Tell me why. I don't know.
00:21:59
Ah, I would like to thank Go rams and let me be frank for tipping.
00:22:04
By the way, thank you.
00:22:05
It's very much appreciated any final thoughts about this division before we head over to the East? No, I think, um, if you got money on anybody but the Chiefs winning this division, I think your silly Ah, the Chiefs are obviously going to dominate within the division.
00:22:23
But it's up to the other three teams then, too.
00:22:26
Ah, see who is the elite team behind the Chiefs? There are probably gonna beat up on each other.
00:22:32
But if one of these teams can it sweep even one of the other teams, that gives them a huge advantage, they're all probably gonna lose majority of the games to the Chiefs.
00:22:40
Uh, good looking at it.
00:22:43
It's gonna be a competitive division all the way through.
00:22:46
I think the Raiders are probably in the worst spot of this division, Broncos and Chargers that we're gonna have a race all year long.
00:22:53
Is it gonna matter when we get to the playoffs? Eventually? Probably not, but still, it'll be fun to watch and something you touched on earlier that I want to bring up.
00:23:04
It's not necessarily related to this division, but we added another playoff spot for each conference, right? So next to wild card, not only does that improve playoff chances, if you're betting on that, but now that means only the one seed gets a bye week.
00:23:19
So we're looking at these weeks.
00:23:20
17 match ups and less.
00:23:22
Teams were going to be resting their players now because there's only one team getting a by.
00:23:26
They need to compete for it, and if they're in the running for it, you know it's less of a chance that they get a bye week.
00:23:33
So that's going to be a more competitive Week 17 which was by design.
00:23:37
So should be fun.
00:23:39
I think it'll bake it for more interesting football on the field, just in general, but also for fantasy.
00:23:45
I mean, most.
00:23:46
Most leagues probably don't run through Week 17 but if this becomes the standard ah, in in upcoming years, you might be able to do all 17 weeks in your fantasy leagues.
00:23:56
And it might make things even more interesting having competitive Week 17.
00:24:01
Obviously, whoever runs your league, whoever is the commissioner, that's gonna be up to them.
00:24:05
I'm not so sure I would want my championship running through Week 17.
00:24:09
But if it becomes I said it becomes regular, we see a few years of highly competitive week, 17 games.
00:24:14
That's just gonna add another potential leak to fantasy as well.
00:24:18
Exactly.
00:24:19
Love it.
00:24:20
Absolutely love it.
00:24:21
Let's go to the East, a division that's been predictable for the past two decades.
00:24:27
But now it's kind of turned upside down.
00:24:30
The Buffalo Bills, winning 10 games last year over under set at 8.5.
00:24:35
I think this is an easy over.
00:24:36
What do you think? Easy over Manning.
00:24:39
It's adding it to my list of favorite bets, Um, right at them going in nine and seven with the potential of repeating last year's 10 and six.
00:24:48
I think they stole a game or two last year.
00:24:51
I can't tell you which ones.
00:24:52
Specifically, I was looking earlier, but they had a few close calls.
00:24:56
Um, their defense made a few key stops for them.
00:24:58
But Josh Palin, I think, is going to keep getting better on digs.
00:25:02
How much of a difference he makes? Not quite sure, but he definitely doesn't make this team any worse.
00:25:08
I love Brown.
00:25:09
Ah, Singletary's good.
00:25:11
And I think Doug McDermott has kind of figured out the A F C East, um, figured out how to a win in that division and with the Patriots.
00:25:21
Such a question mark, I I favor the Bills toe win this division right now, and I'm going to be putting a future bet on them.
00:25:27
It's not huge.
00:25:28
I think it's like plus 2 20 or something like that.
00:25:31
For the Bills to win.
00:25:32
It still like that line.
00:25:34
Still like the possibility I think the Patriots are gonna be who will talk about a minute.
00:25:38
I think they're gonna be good enough to compete for the division, but I think the Bills are the more overall complete team I think they have more offensive talent.
00:25:47
And again, I think job.
00:25:48
Fallon is just going to continue to get better.
00:25:51
It still needs to work on his accuracy a little bit.
00:25:53
That's been his one big knock, but he's he's young.
00:25:56
Yet to eso nine and seven seems a pretty good possibility for me if you really are high on this team, which I actually think I might throw a small bet on this.
00:26:06
There's also another line, a secondary line of 9.5.
00:26:10
It's a little bit more risky, but instead of laying 1 43 year getting a plus 1 63 payouts, so it's a massive swing there.
00:26:19
If you are really high on this Bills team, take that over 9.
00:26:22
5 at plus 1 63.
00:26:25
Otherwise, if you want to play it safe, take the over eight point and I do have them winning 10 games again.
00:26:31
So again, it's a much tougher bet.
00:26:33
But I'm willing to take it for those odds, for sure.
00:26:37
And yeah, by far the most talented team in the division Patriots.
00:26:43
I'm not sure if this is a bold take or not.
00:26:45
I think patriots are the least talented team in the entire division.
00:26:48
They're the best coached, obviously.
00:26:50
But talent wise, this team is bottom 10 in the league for sure with ease.
00:26:57
This is somebody you could argue.
00:26:58
You know, the Jets do have players.
00:27:00
Of course they traded away Jamal Adams.
00:27:02
The Jets have layers.
00:27:03
They just don't work too well, cohesively.
00:27:05
So if you just want to talk straight up ah standpoint, I'd probably agree with you there.
00:27:10
The Patriots are lacking on offense terribly, terribly lacking on offense and their defense.
00:27:17
Last year looked phenomenal through about eight weeks, and then they turned completely pedestrian.
00:27:24
The defense is getting older as well.
00:27:26
Of course you got Thea, um, according twins and a couple other guys that have been staples of that defense forever.
00:27:32
But they're getting older and, uh, eventually they're just not gonna be the same players that they were.
00:27:38
We'll also you talk about the other guys.
00:27:40
Well, we'll jump right into the patrons here.
00:27:42
But the other guys you're talking about there not even there.
00:27:46
I think they lost six starters from their defense from last year.
00:27:49
No Calvin Calvin noise in Miami.
00:27:51
You have Collins and Detroit you had Ah Chong and High Tower Opt out.
00:28:00
Gone.
00:28:01
Think that guys are gone and I am sure they have talent to step up guys that can feel specific roles.
00:28:07
Patriots are good at it, but they're no names right now, so I don't know.
00:28:13
It's rough.
00:28:14
They won 12 games last year, the over under set of eight games just because of Bill Belichick.
00:28:20
And this is just because of Bill Belichick. I'm winning nine.
00:28:24
Ah, yeah, If it is that eight games, you know, like you said, you get the chance for a push.
00:28:30
That's good.
00:28:31
I'd highly doubt they would go under 18 8, I guess just because they're New England Yeah, I've got the line at 85 but I still was leaning over just because it's the same thing.
00:28:42
Um, all these years I've been saying, you know, I'm I'm not gonna bet against Tom Brady or I'm gonna prove it.
00:28:48
Hamp Ah, with Tom Brady.
00:28:50
When everybody said that he was completely done.
00:28:53
And now I'm gonna just feel the same way above Bill Belichick and his patriots.
00:28:58
I just don't I don't think just because Brady moved on the Patriots, all of a sudden become horrible team and our sub 500 team.
00:29:05
I can't remember the last time that bill ballots that coached a 500 team was it when he was with the Browns? I really don't even know.
00:29:12
Uh, so I just don't see them going 88 Even at 8.
00:29:16
5, I'm gonna take the over just on principle.
00:29:20
Uh, I still would avoid this line.
00:29:24
Overall, we're talking real.
00:29:25
Bet real money because the over is minus 1 50.
00:29:28
And I don't feel good enough about this team toe Leia. Mine.
00:29:31
It's one thing if you're talking almost even money, you're minus 1 10 or something.
00:29:34
Sure, I'm gonna take a shot.
00:29:35
But there are so many other ah teams and lines that I would rather put my money on you.
00:29:42
A $50 bet on this team, wouldn't you? What would that be like 30 $1930.
00:29:50
Um, why can't I do this meth 25 2025 bucks? Yeah, I I can't I can't do my math right now, but anyways, you're not be about 30 bucks, I believe.
00:30:01
Anyway, your money is much well spent on Ah, other other bets.
00:30:06
Other lines Just don't know what this Patriots squad is going to be.
00:30:10
But if you're gonna yank my leg, I will take the over again on Princess.
00:30:15
If they go 18 8, won't be super shocked.
00:30:18
If they go seven and nine on, I'm gonna start, be start being surprised.
00:30:23
Right? And I looked it up.
00:30:24
Bill Bell, check coaching record by year.
00:30:27
Last time you went under eight, Nate was his very first season in New England, where you went 5 11.
00:30:33
Since then, he's had one season with nine wins in the rest of double digit wins.
00:30:40
So yeah, I'm I'm Brady was there for most of it, but Tom Brady has was not always Tom Brady.
00:30:47
You know, he didn't he didn't have the best year of every single year of any quarterback ever.
00:30:53
They had absent flows of talent on defense talent around Brady.
00:30:57
And because of Bill Belichick, they still found a way to win all of these games.
00:31:01
Cam Newton is not a bum is not gonna be horrible.
00:31:05
They're gonna find ways to use them, um, and and to win without having to realize super heavily on him.
00:31:13
They do also play a few teams where I think they're kind of give me games and again they beat the Jets and the Dolphins.
00:31:20
They beat the pants off of them almost every single year.
00:31:23
Both teams.
00:31:24
We're gonna be better this year, but I just don't see Bill Belichick losing a ton of games within his own division.
00:31:31
And then, of course, they do play tough teams like the Seahawks and the Chiefs and the Texans and the Rams.
00:31:38
What Bill Bell check has beat all of those defense? Are all of those ah teams before he's outcoached.
00:31:44
All of those coaches before? So I think it's not a super safe, but but it's not a stretch here to try and cash this over completely.
00:31:56
Agree.
00:31:57
It's most likely a spot I'm going to avoid, I guess.
00:32:00
But, yeah, I'd lean over.
00:32:02
Let's go down to Miami, a team everyone thought was tanking last year, and then they stumbled into a few wins in a row.
00:32:09
Somehow they went five and 12.
00:32:14
What was that? Is they still got their guy anyways tanking? Not right.
00:32:19
Not trick like you don't even need to do any of that.
00:32:21
You still got your guy exactly, and they won five games.
00:32:24
The over under went up to 6.
00:32:25
5 this season.
00:32:28
They were big spenders in the off season.
00:32:31
They brought in a couple of really big money defensive players.
00:32:33
So Brian Floors is building his team.
00:32:36
I think he's doing a really good job, but I am going six and 10 which is the under.
00:32:42
What's your thoughts there? I'm going to six in 10 as well.
00:32:47
I think we're gonna have a classic Fitch Mint fits magic season where everybody's gonna be like, Oh, the Dolphins fits magic and he looks really good and then he just completely falls off a cliff.
00:32:56
Then it will be to a time, and it will take a few weeks for two or to get his feet wet.
00:33:01
He's not gonna come out in and just completely tear up.
00:33:03
Defense is like things up, so if you combine those a few weeks where it's magic, Eyes has no magic left and then a few weeks we're two is getting acclimated.
00:33:15
You have a whole stretch of games where the Dolphins will probably drop.
00:33:18
Ah, lot of games.
00:33:19
You might pick up a few on the front end of the back end of the season.
00:33:23
They don't have the easiest schedule either.
00:33:25
Again, playing teams will like the Patriots.
00:33:27
Bill fills.
00:33:28
Of course.
00:33:29
I think they're gonna beat him a few times.
00:33:30
Seahawks 40 Niners Broncos match up well with them.
00:33:34
Ah, you can just keep going down the list.
00:33:36
So it's it's going to be a better season.
00:33:38
Things are looking up for the Dolphins, but ah, it's still gonna be tough.
00:33:43
It's gonna be tough sledding.
00:33:44
And I don't think the Dolphins fans there should be really clamoring for two way to get into early either.
00:33:50
I think you gotta ride out.
00:33:52
Uh, what you've got with with Fitzpatrick, I think you gotta let this team kind of develop, see how good the defense is gonna be, and then when two was actually ready, Or maybe, ah, when you get like, a softer break, if you ah, a few weeks in a row where you're not playing top of the league teams, then you might want to throw to in there.
00:34:13
But I just don't think that he is going to step in and make a massive difference.
00:34:20
I think he's gonna be a good quarterback down the line, but he's also a pocket quarterback.
00:34:26
So if they can keep him, if they can allow him time and they can allow him to read the read the field, keep him safe, keep him upright.
00:34:34
I think two is gonna be really good, but if you throw him in, the offensive line is not at its best.
00:34:40
He's gotta run around, test out that hip make throat run, throws on the run, which he is good at but throws on the run in college of different than throws on the run in the NFL, especially against cornerbacks that are lightening fast compared toa half the teams at Alabama were playing.
00:34:56
You just can't make those same kind of desperate, not desperation.
00:35:00
But I guess close call throws in your rookie year as as an NFL quarterback.
00:35:05
So I think the Dolphins go six in 10 at their best, So I'm gonna take the under minus 1 34 as well.
00:35:13
Um, I said, I kind of wrote down, avoid this line they over achieved last year in a few ways on.
00:35:22
Then they have the, uh ah perfectly placed line.
00:35:29
Let's say I can't even read my my chicken scratch here.
00:35:33
But anyway, they have the tendency.
00:35:34
Basically, what I wrote was too.
00:35:38
Start start off.
00:35:40
Okay, uh, maybe try and piece of season together and then just a whole lot of nothing.
00:35:45
So I think that's what we're going to see again.
00:35:47
And then again to is gonna take some time to get acclimated.
00:35:50
Ryan Fitzpatrick just keeps on thriving.
00:35:54
He's making his money, He's gonna go out, He's gonna play his heart out.
00:35:58
You have no that all the time with Fitzpatrick, like he's going to try and win.
00:36:01
He beat the Patriots in a huge spot last year.
00:36:04
Fitzpatrick is Ah, fine, serviceable quarterback, but gonna be facing a lot of unfavorable matchups this year.
00:36:12
So the under 6.
00:36:14
5 is a pretty comfortable.
00:36:16
But for me, seven and nine would be I would be very impressed with the Dolphins.
00:36:20
They pull out seven games this year.
00:36:23
So if you're predicting fits magic early in the season, are you predicting that week one upset in fax, bro? Then I don't know about if I don't know about in Foxboro, I think I think it'll be a close game, but I don't know if it's a Tom Brady thing or Patriots thing overall, but they can't win in Miami.
00:36:42
They have no problem winning, in fact, grow.
00:36:44
UH, no matter.
00:36:45
No matter who So little hands.
00:36:48
What's that little hands? It's hot in Florida.
00:36:52
I'm docket 9.38 inches.
00:36:54
Looked it up.
00:36:55
Today, tiny hands can grip a football Tom Brady.
00:36:58
And that is ex ah, number one reason for why the Buccaneers? They're gonna stink this year as well.
00:37:02
Tom Brady's tiny little hands.
00:37:04
But yeah, for some reason, they just can't win down in Miami.
00:37:07
But again, they have no problem just throttling the Dolphins.
00:37:11
Week one and FAQ Boxborough.
00:37:13
I think we might see the same thing a little bit less about throttling because there is no time Brady but Dolphins.
00:37:19
I have them losing Week one to the Patriots for sure.
00:37:23
Uh, doesn't mean Fitzpatrick's not gonna have a good game.
00:37:26
No, doesn't mean he can't throw a few touchdowns.
00:37:28
Uh, run a few touchdowns.
00:37:30
We always see that our fits Magic Red Zone Flash.
00:37:33
Just 20 minutes, Week two and he's got 300 yards, four touchdowns through the air and two on the ground, and it's like running people over your lower his shoulder on anybody.
00:37:43
Oh, he will run you over yet, And he loves it, too.
00:37:45
He gets up and he's just jacked.
00:37:47
And, you know, that's the guy who started to age a little bit Harvard grad like there's plenty of reasons for him not to try and run you over.
00:37:54
But he's not gonna avoid you.
00:37:56
So I think fits magic.
00:37:57
Gonna have some fun up in Foxboro.
00:37:59
Is he gonna win? Is he gonna leave the Dolphins to a victory? Chances are probably not.
00:38:05
But again, um, there's hope for this Dolphins team and fits magic.
00:38:11
I think is the perfect bridge quarterback for them right now.
00:38:14
And, by the way, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
00:38:16
I think he has, like, third or fourth biggest hands out of any quarterback in the league just saying, Why would Miami take one? And they that's absolutely right.
00:38:27
Ah, there's a couple of spots Week one.
00:38:29
I know this isn't a Week one show, but there's Ah couple trapped games.
00:38:32
Really scary games.
00:38:34
I've seen a lot of people right up saying Patriots are the best survivor pick for Week one for Survivor pools This is not a gimme, especially with the people who Miami traded for, not traded for, like signed in the offseason like there's multiple Patriots that are now on that roster.
00:38:51
They know all the little things in Foxboro that they're gonna have to deal with.
00:38:55
It's not the same Fox, bro.
00:38:57
I don't know the fan capacity is gonna be, but obviously it's not the same.
00:39:01
That's a trap spot.
00:39:02
The other one is Washington against Philadelphia for offense of line reasons.
00:39:08
But yeah, so and just kind of close some thoughts here on the Dolphins, by the way.
00:39:17
No way am I talked to this game in Week one in a survivor pool, even even if you have by in five acts or whatever available, like, why would you take such a risk in the first week of basically just cost, you know, potentially tossing your money out the window? I like to take somewhat of an easy game, not like the easiest game possible.
00:39:35
I like to save those for later in the season, but enough survivor pool.
00:39:38
I like to take, you know, a virtual lock in the first two weeks just to feel good kind of see where they see how the teams are playing out, See how things are looking on the field.
00:39:47
And then I might start getting a little deeper into, um, closer calls there.
00:39:52
But avoiding that game in a survivor pool week one for sure.
00:39:55
Just want some last thoughts on the Dolphins schedule.
00:39:59
And when we might see to, uh, I think the perfect opportunity for two.
00:40:02
Uh, might come, let's see.
00:40:04
12345 So that would be week nine.
00:40:10
Then they have a bye week and then week 11.
00:40:13
I believe if I'm doing if I'm counting correct here, they play the Jets in back to back weeks.
00:40:18
Uh, okay, we lost Jake.
00:40:26
Let's finish up here talking about the Jets, okay? Hey, it was my Internet This time.
00:40:32
Jets went seven and nine last season.
00:40:35
Oh, chicks Here they back my computer decided to force close this tab.
00:40:39
This time I got to get there, OK, it's I don't know what's wrong with it, but anyway, as I was saying, if they only have one or two wins going into that back to back matchup against the Jets with the bye week in the middle.
00:40:54
I think that's the perfect time to try and play.
00:40:56
Two of the Jets are not an elite team.
00:40:58
Ah, you put him in there for the first week, see what he does.
00:41:02
See what you can do.
00:41:03
Then you take the bye week, study that film, uh, work with him a little bit, and then you come back and play that since same exact team again for a second week in a row.
00:41:12
I think that's a good situation for a young quarterback.
00:41:15
And but I don't think I don't think, Ah, at any point before that, you're gonna want to throw him in just to rattle off the teams that they played before those matchups against the Jets.
00:41:25
They have the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks, 40 Niners, Broncos, Chargers, Rams and then they also play the Cardinals and the Jaguars in there, which is, I think the Jags is when they can pick up their win.
00:41:38
Cardinals could go either way, but, I mean, that's a pretty brutal way to start off your season.
00:41:43
So if things if you're already aren't you know, one in one and eight or whatever through those first nine weeks, you might as well put to it in there again against the same team two weeks in a row.
00:41:54
I think that's a good situation for him, and I think that's my that might be when we see him this season, Who did they play after that? Second Jets can eso they go Jets, jets, and then Bangles, which I forgot to.
00:42:07
Ah, I forgot to throw that in there.
00:42:09
But that's another another favorable matchup a little bit.
00:42:12
Who knows how good the Bangles will or will not be by that point in the season.
00:42:16
But everybody's gonna want to see to overseas Joe Borough anyway.
00:42:19
If you go Jen, it's Bangles before having to face the Chiefs, Pats, Raiders and Bills down the line.
00:42:27
I mean, if you're gonna put him in at any point this season, you're not gonna wait again.
00:42:30
We kind of talked about it talking about Justin Herbert, but you're not gonna wait until week work 13 14 when you're facing the Chiefs and the Patriots and then ending your season with the Bills, you're probably gonna want to get his feet wet before that and two games in a row against the Jets and then the Bangles seems like the perfect opportunity.
00:42:49
And then you can see what this guy can do through those last four weeks.
00:42:54
Yeah, you're right.
00:42:55
I was wondering if they had, like, an opponent that with the really tough pass rush after the Jets, just because they're not gonna put two in behind this offensive line because they're terrible.
00:43:07
Um, I think they gave up the most sacks in the league last year to Fitzpatrick, who somehow wasn't hurt.
00:43:14
But ah, yeah, against those opponents, the only one that scares use the bills.
00:43:19
And this week, 17 and yeah, they'll be okay.
00:43:22
They'll put two running backs in the backfield of protecting if they need.
00:43:25
Teoh doesn't really.
00:43:27
And again, that gives.
00:43:28
Probably not it.
00:43:29
Probably being a lot more for the bills than the Dolphins.
00:43:31
So I mean, yeah, have if to was a little beat up where you do have any concerns or whatever, you You don't have to, you know, have him out there and risk him or anything.
00:43:40
You might even be able to go back to Fitzpatrick depending on how what the season calls for your well, a game against the Bills.
00:43:47
There we go.
00:43:48
There we go.
00:43:49
NFL narrative schedules already set up.
00:43:51
See, doing that.
00:43:53
Magic has come up huge in week 17 before, so why not throw him out there again? It to a is not going to make or break this Dolphins team.
00:44:00
They have a low ceiling already.
00:44:03
One that I don't think, too.
00:44:04
It really raises all that much in his first season.
00:44:07
But if you're gonna put him at all this first season, which you kind of have to write, you don't draft a guy that's that good and not play him at all s.
00:44:15
So I think that about six weeks span there, um, up until you play the bills is the perfect opportunity.
00:44:23
Chiefs are another team, though, that you're gonna be able to really test your young quarterback against Chief Star, confusing defense to read time.
00:44:30
And Matthew always freaks have back there.
00:44:32
If you can hold your own against the Chiefs, that's a good sign.
00:44:36
Completely agree.
00:44:37
And who would draft a quarterback in the first round and not playing good? Good thoughts, Jake.
00:44:43
Well, I don't know.
00:44:45
Shots at the Packers here don't mean when you have an Rogers and also shouldn't drafted Jordan love in first round.
00:44:51
Anyways, gasp to uh is different than Jordan love, and I don't think that that's bold.
00:44:57
Take. You heard it here first.
00:44:59
Let's go.
00:45:00
Let's set this clip all around.
00:45:02
Yeah, I can't believe I said that.
00:45:04
But to was better than Jordan.
00:45:05
Look, I said, I don't know. I don't know.
00:45:09
We'll find out.
00:45:10
That's what we'll do.
00:45:11
We'll find out. Maybe.
00:45:13
You know what? Maybe Jordan loves air next. Taysom Hill.
00:45:16
We can hope threw him out there.
00:45:18
Let's finish with the A F C East with the toughest team for me and the team.
00:45:24
I am still.
00:45:25
Honestly, I'm still thinking about what I'm gonna do with them.
00:45:29
The New York Jets.
00:45:30
They want seven games last year, obviously, they were missing Sam Donald for a big stretch over Under said at 6.
00:45:35
5, so they're expected to regress.
00:45:38
Honestly, this team has such a negative or around, um, pick because of Adam case.
00:45:43
That's pretty much it.
00:45:45
Adam cases a moron, by all accounts, but they made good decisions in the off season like front office made the right decisions, investing in the offense of line that did their thing defense took a big hit, obviously trading away Jamal Adams.
00:46:00
I have them winning six games, so going under the man, I feel like I'm over.
00:46:08
I feel like I'm just glossing over the good moves that they didn't make.
00:46:12
And maybe they're better than people are giving them credit for.
00:46:15
So talk me out of changing it to an over.
00:46:18
But I can't do that because I'm on the under as well.
00:46:22
Um, again, so much juice with this under minus 1 50 Eso I don't I don't love it.
00:46:29
I'm not running to throw my money at it, but ah, they've made smart decisions.
00:46:33
They got better in some ways, but they also got worse in other ways, specifically on the defense with Jamal Adams.
00:46:39
I think since I think Sam Donald is still a turnover machine, So when you have a bad defense and you're giving the opposing offense extra chances, 2 to 4 extra chances, every single, every single game, that's going to be really hard.
00:46:53
It's gonna come back to bite.
00:46:54
You leave Ian Bell, you just don't he We've heard questions about him coming out of camp.
00:47:00
We I question his motivation.
00:47:03
Um, you know, I questioned whether he even wants to be with the Jets or not.
00:47:06
I don't know who is gonna be gone from this team First.
00:47:09
Adam Geyser lay beyond Bell.
00:47:10
Probably lay beyond Bell just cause it's easier.
00:47:13
I mean, it's easy to fire head coach to, but it's easy to cut a running back.
00:47:16
Get rid of a running back, doesn't care, but they do have money invested into him.
00:47:20
Um, I just think all around this Jets team is just a big pile of, like, just guys that I don't want.
00:47:29
Like like Sam.
00:47:30
Donna was not that I don't want him, but, like, there's other guys that I'd rather have been saying Donald right now, um, again turnover machine, Like I said.
00:47:38
And if you don't have a stud defense Thio, Thio, try and counter act all those offensive turnovers If you've got a ah, multimillion dollar, whatever it was $13 million year running back.
00:47:51
Who is being Oh, performed by a dinosaur basically in ah, in the backfield like those were just not good sign.
00:48:00
So I'm not high on this Jets team at all.
00:48:03
I think they are going to get beat up within the division alone.
00:48:08
And then again, you got to play the 40 Niners and all the other teams that we've been listing off here.
00:48:13
Uh, keeps.
00:48:14
It's just not a favorable schedule.
00:48:17
I think the Browns match up well with the Jets this year.
00:48:19
Baker Mayfield got his first ever win against the Jets.
00:48:22
I believe the last time that these two teams played, I think that the Browns are gonna beat them as well.
00:48:27
So you just start going on the list and you're like, Man, I find it hard to piece together a seven game win season for this Jets team.
00:48:34
So I'm taking the under, but again minus 1 50 it's not a bet that I love.
00:48:38
Probably avoiding this line as well seems to be a common theme throughout the A F C East years.
00:48:44
Lines that we want to avoid.
00:48:45
But I just don't see them winning seven games.
00:48:49
So looking at odds, shopper right now points but has the over under set at six.
00:48:56
So now we're talking, you get that push at six.
00:48:59
Do you think it's more likely they went seven games or five games? Man, it seems like they should be better then of five and 11 team, right? But I got to say five games like they're not good enough to go seven and nine in my In my opinion, unless they steal a game a couple games within their division, which is going to be tough.
00:49:21
I mean, the Patriots that Bill Belichick, Belichick has the Jets number.
00:49:26
No matter.
00:49:27
You know, that could be starting a high school quarterback.
00:49:29
And I think he's gonna beat the Jets.
00:49:31
So if they can't steal any games inside their division and then there Ah, tough of division and out of conference schedules schedule.
00:49:41
I just think they're more likely to win five games than they are seven.
00:49:46
I wouldn't take the I like the six a lot more with the potential of a push instead of 6.5.
00:49:52
But if you're taking the under, I guess I would rather have the 6.5.
00:49:55
It gives you an extra half a game to work with, Um, so I would probably stick with 6.
00:50:00
5 line if you're gonna lay this.
00:50:03
What is the payout, though Attached to that six line is it still won 50 on the over on the under under plus 1.
00:50:13
20. Oh, ****.
00:50:15
So that's so that's That's pretty scrumptious, actually.
00:50:18
So then, knowing that I might roll with the under six plus 1 20 potential of a push.
00:50:25
But, man, if they do go under, that's a significant swing.
00:50:30
A big time payout compared to minus 1 50.
00:50:34
Yeah.
00:50:36
Yeah, you're right.
00:50:38
I don't know.
00:50:40
I just feel like Adam Gates could do some stupid and somehow win seven games again.
00:50:45
I don't know.
00:50:46
He just seems like the guy is going to do just enough to keep his job, but not enough to get fired.
00:50:52
And people are frustrated by that in and of itself often, I don't know.
00:50:58
We'll see again.
00:50:59
It's a lie.
00:51:00
I don't want to stay away from the only line of this division.
00:51:02
I feel good about the bills, and I feel very good about it.
00:51:07
Yeah, me as well.
00:51:08
What? I mean, if you just if you just look over their schedule like they did not have a favorable schedule, they play.
00:51:16
They start off with the bills, bills should take care of business.
00:51:19
Then you got the 40 Niners and the colts who I know you're high on the Colts, you could be starting off easily.
00:51:24
Oh, and three.
00:51:26
And then you're gonna have to, you know, climb out of a hole.
00:51:28
As as you face teams like the Cardinals Chiefs, the Patriots.
00:51:35
Who knows what the Raiders are gonna be.
00:51:36
The Seahawks, the Rams and the Browns and the Patriots.
00:51:39
I mean, that's a brutal final four weeks to your schedule.
00:51:43
Seahawks Rams, Brown's Patriots.
00:51:46
So if you starting off on three and then you assume they go maybe Owen four down the stretch, they're gonna have to pick up seven wins.
00:51:54
It knows what's in those 10 games in the middle in order to cash in over bed.
00:51:58
That's that's a big ask.
00:52:02
Yeah.
00:52:03
So let's think back on the entire NFL.
00:52:07
Can you give your top three win total bets? I think mine would be Seahawks over.
00:52:15
Giants under bills.
00:52:17
Over.
00:52:18
Yeah, I've got I've got them all.
00:52:22
I got them all written out.
00:52:26
Uh, at least ideas.
00:52:28
OK, I gotta find that sheet cause I'm driving Iowa tomorrow to place on my bet.
00:52:33
So I've got them all written out somewhere.
00:52:36
Ah, here, this is Take a screenshot, everybody.
00:52:42
It's free money for, So I think the number my favorite overall.
00:52:47
But is the Giants under six? Unfortunately, the line has moved from one of minus 106 to minus 1 10.
00:52:55
Big what? Really, in the grand scheme of things, I was loving that 106 number, though essentially even money for a Giants team that is absolutely not going to win more than six games, that's probably my favorite.
00:53:05
But then I have a few bets that are kind of kind of tied for ones that I that I like a lot.
00:53:12
But they're not like my super favorite in the Cowboys over 9.
00:53:16
5 and the Saints over 10.
00:53:21
5 Cowboys come with a minus 1 50 payout.
00:53:25
Saints come with a minus 106 Payout.
00:53:28
Saints Air at 10.5.
00:53:29
It's a questionable line for a lot of people.
00:53:31
I still think they're going to go over my other two Favorite bets outside of the Giants are our beloved Packers over 8.
00:53:37
5 minus 1 37.
00:53:40
I just don't see the Packers losing six additional games this year.
00:53:43
All they have to do is go nine and seven.
00:53:45
I haven't looked this up, but I don't think the pay The Packers have gone 88 more than one time in the last dozen years, Like at least since Aaron Rodgers.
00:53:55
First year.
00:53:56
Um, I I don't see them going 18 8 again.
00:53:59
Don't quote me on that.
00:54:00
I could be wrong.
00:54:01
I haven't looked at the records, but they're not going 88 this year.
00:54:03
Packers over 8.
00:54:04
5 and then, AH, Seahawks over 9.5.
00:54:10
Just the disrespectful line is that, and I have talked about the Seahawks win.
00:54:15
Russell Wilson wins.
00:54:16
They should win at least 10 games this year, and you're getting a plus 1 10 payout.
00:54:22
So to answer your question, I also do kind of like the Bangles over 5.
00:54:25
5 minus 1. 34.
00:54:28
That's gonna be a small bet, though, So if you're asking me top three, I'm going.
00:54:32
Giants under six, Seahawks over 9.
00:54:35
5 and Cowboys over 9.5.
00:54:39
I think the bills would be just just outside that as an honorable mention.
00:54:45
Ah, with their line as well, which we just went over with.
00:54:50
Their line is half 8.5.
00:54:53
Yeah, so they're my honorable mention, but I would roll with the Giants, Cowboys and Packers.
00:54:59
If you're trying to narrow these bats down here, that's fair.
00:55:05
And I think we didn't cover.
00:55:07
You know, it's entirely pretty well and I feel good about him.
00:55:11
I feel good about the ones, he said, For whatever it's worth under Aaron Rodgers, I guess while he's been in the league, they went 87 and 1 2013 and then now you're talking about injuries to him.
00:55:24
But they went 7 to 9 2017 69 and 1 2018.
00:55:28
But yeah, and those, Yeah, both for the, you know, the off years, the odd years.
00:55:32
So, um, and with Aaron Rodgers healthy and again, Matt LaFleur has maybe over achieved, um in his first couple of years as a head coach.
00:55:42
But, uh, he, I don't think is going Teoh.
00:55:47
I don't think it's gonna put in eight and a team on the field.
00:55:49
I think Aaron Rodgers has so many things to motivate him this year, and I think the talent that they went 13 and three with last year is, you know, on on par with the talent that they've got this year.
00:56:01
Obviously, Um, no first round draft pick to work with.
00:56:05
To be beneficial out there.
00:56:07
Could have.
00:56:08
Could have had somebody to help our Rogers on the line.
00:56:10
Could have had an offensive weapon.
00:56:12
Could have had his defense of stud, but no, we go with a below average quarterback from a small school.
00:56:18
Um, you know, I die aggress on that, but my whole point is you win 13 games with this team last year.
00:56:25
I just don't see you coming out and putting up in 88 season this year.
00:56:29
I think I think the division is more favorable this year for the Packers.
00:56:35
I think the Vikings have taken a step back.
00:56:37
I think the bears are going to be the Bears.
00:56:39
And the Packers know how to beat the Bears and the lions.
00:56:44
I'm in the camp of men.
00:56:45
The lines you've got to start.
00:56:47
You gotta put a season together before I'm gonna start putting any respect on your name.
00:56:50
Like I like Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay is gonna have a big year for fantasy, obviously, But as a team as a whole, you can't tell me that the packers air scared of this Lions team at all, so I think that they're fine in division.
00:57:03
Even if you dropped two games in the division, your already over halfway to cashing this over Bette M 8.5.
00:57:10
So, uh, just doesn't it doesn't make much sense to me.
00:57:13
Why the Linus so low? I would have thought it would be in, like the 9.
00:57:17
5 range.
00:57:19
But obviously oddsmakers everybody else a lot lower on the Packers this year than I am, and that's not even secured is the Packers as a Packers fan? I mean, there's almost no team that I would look at and and say They're gonna go 18 8 after a 13 and three NFC Championship run type season.
00:57:36
Unless you lose your quarterback, you lose your you know, your studs on offense.
00:57:40
You trade away players on defense.
00:57:42
Then maybe we might be talking 18 8.
00:57:44
But the Packers did none of those things.
00:57:45
So, uh, roll with the Packers.
00:57:48
I'm I'm pretty confident on that one, and I believe, just to reiterate, I said, the Giants, Cowboys and Packers, my favorite three bets are actually the Cowboys, Packers and Saints.
00:57:59
I do love the Cowboys as well, but just a bit more juice on the Cowboys.
00:58:04
Which is why I'm putting them a rung lower so that the Cowboys and the Bills as honorable mentions outside the Dock three.
00:58:12
And I like all those.
00:58:14
I just like Seahawks more just because, as do I, yeah, si ox, I I believe in Russell Wilson.
00:58:21
But to your point about the Packers, one of the games that was scary was this week.
00:58:25
One matchup against the Vikings, right? And you and I are both pretty confident they're going to take it.
00:58:30
So I mean, there's one win in the division already.
00:58:34
Honest, I think Lions have no chance to win the division, but I think they're the scariest team for the Packers. Head to head.
00:58:41
I think Lions, for sure, win one game against us, maybe two.
00:58:46
But even with that, we should go.
00:58:49
It may at least historically, to go like the Lions for summaries and have been able to beat the Packers and years that they shouldn't like when they came into Lambeau, I think was it during the Packers? Ah, it was a few years back when the Packers went like 12 and four had another phenomenal season and the Lions came in and one and Lambeau, for the first time since, like 1992 or 99 or something crazy like that, and they absolutely should not have won that game.
00:59:16
But they always find a way.
00:59:18
Eso But again, just as a whole.
00:59:21
The Lions really don't scare me.
00:59:23
They don't impress me as a team, either.
00:59:25
Um, Adrian Peterson being there now, it doesn't really do anything for me.
00:59:29
And again, even if the Packers dropped two games in the division that that means they're still based.
00:59:35
The 14 games and all you got to do is win nine games to cash this to cash this.
00:59:40
Ah, but so you take care of business in the division, as they always have as they should.
00:59:46
You're already halfway to cashing.
00:59:47
You've got another 10 games to sit back and relax, and you and you only need to win five of those.
00:59:53
I think it's a pretty easy bet for me.
00:59:56
I was trying to look up Stafford's record against Packers.
01:00:00
For some reason, this isn't Lemming search.
01:00:01
Very well.
01:00:03
Um, I know Stafford's killed the Packers.
01:00:08
He lost the last game by one point.
01:00:11
Time before that, he beat him in Lambeau one the time before that one.
01:00:16
The time before that one, the time before that Lost Lost.
01:00:23
So he won four games in a row before the one point lost last season.
01:00:27
But it just comes down to Mitt.
01:00:29
Had to had matchups. J.
01:00:32
Alexander can cover big wide receivers.
01:00:34
And I mean, that's all they're gonna do if they're just gonna jack up to Kenny Golladay.
01:00:39
But yeah, even so, one, maybe two losses against that.
01:00:44
Detroit's not gonna kill him.
01:00:46
Good bets.
01:00:48
We just made people rich, I think.
01:00:51
Uh, yeah, Saturday we might be back to talk.
01:00:55
Week one talk about how many panels there should be.
01:00:59
Ah, prop of how many penalties each game should have because I would bet the over in each one.
01:01:04
That's funny.
01:01:05
You should just go through and make those try and sell the lines to smocks, some books or something.
01:01:09
Smog makers.
01:01:11
I might try.
01:01:12
I might try just a couple of other I'll just throw a couple of their pets that I'm gonna be placing tomorrow.
01:01:18
I don't know if you want to do like a stream of overall favorite NFL bets or not, But I mean pretty much covered Mark from here.
01:01:25
I've got Bills a small at to win the A F C East.
01:01:28
I guess I overhyped that line.
01:01:30
Earlier, I thought it was in the two hundreds.
01:01:32
It's actually only plus 1 20 bills to win the A F C East.
01:01:35
Um, I've got the Packers winning the NFC North for a small bet plus 1 80.
01:01:41
NFC East winner.
01:01:42
The Cowboys are only minus 1 21.
01:01:45
Obviously, Ah, the only team that brought it probably gonna have to worry about is the Eagles.
01:01:49
I think they take care of business against the Eagles and win that division.
01:01:53
A minus 1 21 is a good line up on the Cowboys to win the NFC East.
01:01:59
I've got the A F C South winners, as this might not make any sense because I've been dumping on them for Ah, you know, months now, really, is the Texans the only reason I'm putting a very small amount on the Texas? The win is because I think that they match up halfway decently with the Titans.
01:02:18
I think the Titans it over a bit of overachievers last year.
01:02:22
I think the Texans have just as much of a shot in that division of anyone else and they're paying out. Plus 3 50.
01:02:28
I'm gonna probably just throw like 10 bucks at it. If I win.
01:02:31
Cool.
01:02:32
That's 35 bucks, if not, whatever it was $10.
01:02:34
Another one that I really like is the tokens to make the playoffs plus 2 20.
01:02:41
Yeah, that's not bad.
01:02:43
I took a bet.
01:02:44
If they stay healthy, I think they do make the playoffs.
01:02:46
So she wouldn't an extra spot.
01:02:48
They might squeak in, and, uh, they don't have to make it any noise in the playoffs.
01:02:52
Even they just got to make it in your cash.
01:02:54
Deployed? Yeah, yeah, like that Before, Like two, maybe 2.
01:03:02
5 months ago, I said, One of my favorite futures was the Bears toe in the NFC North.
01:03:07
They were third best odds.
01:03:09
They were, like, plus to something plus three something.
01:03:12
So I just figured as a value, but they were definitely worth it.
01:03:16
Um, let me pull it up right here.
01:03:18
I've got NFC North.
01:03:20
Chicago Bears are plus 3.
01:03:22
80 at the moment.
01:03:23
Yeah, like they're worth a couple of bucks.
01:03:25
I think, Um, just because I don't think the Vikings can win it, and I don't think Detroit can win it.
01:03:32
So say something happens drastic to the packers like that.
01:03:36
Make the switch to Jordan, love.
01:03:37
And they trade Aaron Rodgers away, maybe.
01:03:40
Ah, ah! Bear squeak.
01:03:42
Unde r the nine and seven Division Tramps.
01:03:45
Could you actually imagine that happening? I It would be such a **** show around here, like you thought The protest for everything else going bad was bad.
01:03:54
People have you writing Green Bay would be up in flames literally.
01:03:59
It's well, it's gonna be bad enough when they actually do.
01:04:03
Whatever happens with Rogers happens, it's gonna be bad enough.
01:04:06
But if they traded him away, its season If disaster loves for loved rookie year.
01:04:13
Oh, my.
01:04:14
Trade him to Dallas, which people hate anyways, but also trade.
01:04:18
I'm to McCarthy down there.
01:04:21
Just a convention behind deck.
01:04:23
Yeah.
01:04:24
Yeah, exactly.
01:04:26
Oh, good.
01:04:28
Yeah. Okay. Well, this is fun.
01:04:30
I'm sure we'll have a show tomorrow if you're going to Iowa.
01:04:33
Are you back for the show? Tomorrow are now.
01:04:35
Well, that's what last stream I had put in the slack that I mean, I'm gonna try and leave in the morning, but it's gonna be six hours in the car.
01:04:42
Plus, I got to create a draftkings account, put on my bets in, probably grab some food somewhere or something.
01:04:47
I'm gonna try and be back for sure, cause I planned on being back by the start of the Chiefs game, but I will hopefully be back for the stream.
01:04:56
If not, I'm gonna try and figure out how to do it on my cell phone.
01:04:59
I don't know if SportsCastr allow Is that or not? You can.
01:05:03
Okay, well, then I I should be able to be on the stream tomorrow night.
01:05:07
Um, but yeah, number one priority tomorrow is I wish I didn't have to drive all the way to to Iowa, but it's just just easier.
01:05:16
I looked into doing it in Illinois, but it's about a horse, a piece.
01:05:18
I'm right in the middle of Wisconsin, so it's about three hours either way.
01:05:22
And Illinois, you gotta go.
01:05:23
You gotta jump through more hoops.
01:05:25
There's a download that you can you can bet through draftkings on this app.
01:05:31
But you're not actually drink like betting on the draft case app, if that makes any sense.
01:05:35
So just get over Iowa, Place These draftkings numbers I've been looking at for weeks now, and hopefully a few months from now I'll be able to go to a nice dinner or something like that.
01:05:47
It's always nice.
01:05:48
It's always good when, like the future is come in, you completely forgot what you place in all of a sudden.
01:05:53
You look at your wallet and let go.
01:05:55
****.
01:05:56
Okay, let's go, Let's go! Yeah! Oh, and your F King says Thea, like I'm creating come for my brother to because they they're offering Chiefs +101 tomorrow night.
01:06:07
So up to $50 bet.
01:06:09
But there's no roll over.
01:06:10
There's no nothing attached to it.
01:06:11
So free 50 bucks.
01:06:13
If anybody's out there and, ah, as draftkings, I mean, it's literally free. $50.
01:06:20
Nobody.
01:06:21
His NFL has ever lost by 102 points, especially not the defending Super Bowl champions.
01:06:26
So every time there is a bit like that, it looks scary for a little bit.
01:06:33
And that makes me worried about this game's outcome because the Pat Mac If he did that with Fanduel with ah colts, it was a cold.
01:06:40
Plus, it's something that had to do with his number is something It was plus like 80 something, I think.
01:06:46
And they were down by, like, 40 something in the first half.
01:06:49
And it was like, If you feel like what the **** at like, this is stupid like, Yeah, that's the worst beetle.
01:06:56
Maybe a little nervous now.
01:06:58
Yeah, well, I mean, 54 like so on.
01:07:01
You know, I tweeted out cause I've still got some money left in my book.
01:07:05
You just cause I was the first book I ever used way back when I started Live Better not live betting sports betting because they were the only one that would take my debit card.
01:07:13
And I've heard many horror stories about, like, trying to cash out with them and whatever.
01:07:17
So I've never tried to CAFO And so I put all my money on two different NHL parlays at the beginning of of the NHL playoffs, and it was like $60 and I won.
01:07:29
So now I'm up to, like, 240 bucks in that my book account again So now I'm just like, uh, whatever.
01:07:35
So anyway, I did take the cost 54 with them.
01:07:39
But, I mean, that's a realistic, say, the Chiefs, I don't know, have the worst game of all time.
01:07:44
You realistically could lose that bet 101 safe.
01:07:49
I would.
01:07:50
I would hope so.
01:07:51
But I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
01:07:53
It's good or not. Tomorrow.
01:07:55
Thursday? Yeah. Tomorrow.
01:07:59
****.
01:08:00
I had so much work to do.
01:08:01
Let's go.
01:08:02
I need to write about eight more betting previous tonight.
01:08:05
Okay, so from us to you have fun making your money.
01:08:10
It'll be on Fleury, too.
01:08:11
But I'm gonna publish just a quick overview of, um, all the best bets, all the lines to avoid that Zach and I ah, referenced and covered over this little Siri's.
01:08:22
I will link the videos back in on that on that article as well to keep an eye out for that on Fleury Sports.
01:08:30
And it should be posted at pick citi dot com.
01:08:35
Good stuff.
01:08:36
Give us the following Here will be live every day during the fantasy season.
01:08:39
Batting fantasy, All that good stuff.
01:08:42
You'll see you guys next time
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AFC East & West Over/Under Win Totals!

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FlurrySports Livestreams @FlurrySports

Transcript hideup

00:00:04
three.
00:00:05
Dio, can you hear me do this like it is super loud and annoying.
00:00:08
It's no out.
00:00:10
Okay, we're good anyway.
00:00:11
Just kind of sounds like you're like going like this against the might.
00:00:15
Should be good.
00:00:16
Now let me when you tweeted out another link here.
00:00:26
Well, dio dio share on Twitter.
00:00:34
Okay, just went out.
00:00:44
Okay? Those watching the replay? Apologies.
00:00:50
As you can see, a bit different background for me.
00:00:52
This is not ah, well, we put together a green screen.
00:00:56
This is a new background because of the living group sitting like 2 ft away from my TV, where the router is with a like a 1 ft cord plugged into my laptop with a TV tray and ah, shoebox elevating by computer.
00:01:13
My £110 dog on my lap.
00:01:16
It's just his great time over here, but we are here to talk about betting.
00:01:20
Ah, where you cut off in the middle of a thought on the Broncos? Yeah, uh, all I was saying about the Broncos.
00:01:28
Really? Um, as I pulled up their schedule here again, but they played the Titans in week one.
00:01:34
That is in Denver.
00:01:36
Um, I think.
00:01:37
I think you know, again, as as I have mentioned on the grief last dream, I just think it's gonna be a struggle for a lot of offenses in Week one anyways, because you have a lot of contact or time together.
00:01:52
Anything.
00:01:53
I don't know what Ryan Tan.
00:01:54
It's gonna look like I'm Derrick Henry, probably still going to dominate.
00:01:57
But if you can focus a lot on him and shocking down, you know von Miller, um, that Denver defense still takes care of business.
00:02:04
You gotta go up and play in the elements.
00:02:06
I think it's a favorable matchup for the Broncos, Week one.
00:02:09
But then in the following weeks, they play the Steelers Buccaneers, get a bit of a break with the Jets, and they play the Patriots.
00:02:16
So it's not gonna be a very easy start.
00:02:19
Um, no matter what you think about the Patriots about Cam Newton at that point, they're gonna have four weeks under their belt.
00:02:24
Bill Belichick's gonna have stuff figured out.
00:02:26
Figure out how this team's gonna operate and I could be a a bit of a rough start there for the Broncos after they steal Week one against the Titans, but I do lean on the over 7.
00:02:38
5 just to reiterate.
00:02:40
I think they could hit eight wins.
00:02:42
Um, and I don't want to lay the juice on an under bed, either, so I'd rather risk a little bit more on a plus 1 18 bet over 7.5.
00:02:51
So those are my feelings on the product, and I need you to cool it a little bit with a week one that $1000 Parlay needs that Titans win at the very end.
00:03:00
So let's if I have to hedge, I will.
00:03:03
But knowing me, I probably still wouldn't Ah, that is a Monday game next Monday night game.
00:03:08
So second Monday night came to the very last game of the week.
00:03:13
So if it comes down to that, I trust I'll hopefully make a smart decision.
00:03:18
But we will find out.
00:03:20
But we'll get into that game a different day.
00:03:23
I do think Titans when? But let's go.
00:03:26
Noah.
00:03:27
Zach has a 53 to 1 on 19 barley.
00:03:30
Is that I believe yeah, Week one.
00:03:33
I think it looks pretty delish works.
00:03:34
There's one or two teams that you know.
00:03:37
Ah, bit questionable, but 53 to 1.
00:03:40
I mean, that's that's a heck of a payoff.
00:03:43
Worth it? Worth it all calculated Teoh, Eat all nine lakhs.
00:03:48
How about that? Easy.
00:03:50
I like it.
00:03:52
The hard, uh, not hard to pull off a 19 parlay when you pick nine winners.
00:03:56
A kid winners it, but easy.
00:04:00
Let's move on to the Super Bowl champs, kicking off Thursday at Kansas City Chiefs.
00:04:05
Last year they went 12 and four when Total sat at 11.5.
00:04:10
This is a tricky one for me.
00:04:12
I think it is at a really good spot.
00:04:14
I have them winning 12 games again, so it is slightly over.
00:04:18
But it is.
00:04:19
It's right on that mine.
00:04:20
I feel like they are injury or two away from swaying a couple games.
00:04:24
So what's your thoughts on the Chiefs? Yes, Speaking of injuries, you got to remember that the Chiefs won 12 and four last year, while Patrick Mahomes missed a few weeks.
00:04:34
Should have missed return, probably made a miraculous recovery with that knee.
00:04:38
Matt Moore wasn't awful of, but they did only lose one game under Matt Moore.
00:04:42
They lost one early in the season and then they lost the game that afternoon, homes came back, and then they went on a nine with a nine a game win streak to win the Super Bowl.
00:04:51
Of course, I think the Chiefs are at least as good, if not better than here.
00:04:56
I haven't officially announced this on Twitter yet, but I think I'm gonna roll with the Chiefs.
00:05:01
Is back to back Super Bowl champions.
00:05:03
UM, 11.
00:05:05
5 is, you know, a bit of a higher line that I would like.
00:05:10
I do like that push.
00:05:11
So I wish it was sent at 11.
00:05:13
I think it's entirely possible that, like you said, they drop a game or they do have an injury.
00:05:18
Something happens, and they are that 11 5 type team.
00:05:22
Uh, even with that being said, I'm going to roll with the over 11.
00:05:27
5 minus 1 21.
00:05:29
I just don't think you can bet against this Chiefs team.
00:05:31
I just don't think you can bet um, against Patrick Mahomes.
00:05:35
And if he is there for all 16 games, there's no reason they shouldn't go at least 12 and four again.
00:05:40
So I'm taking the over a little bit of juice at 1 21.
00:05:43
But that's fine.
00:05:45
Yeah.
00:05:46
Points, but has the best odds minus 1 20.
00:05:49
Bet MGM has the best under odds at plus 1 10.
00:05:55
Yeah, what's more likely, they win 12 games or 11 games? It really does seem like 12 right? But still losing four games, you know? Yeah, it's exactly And and like I said, they did it.
00:06:10
Ah, with Matt Moore.
00:06:12
He was.
00:06:13
He only lost 11 game last year.
00:06:15
But then Patrick Mahomes wasn't fully himself on that first week.
00:06:18
He came back, played fine.
00:06:19
But, you know, it was.
00:06:20
Still, they were still timid with him a bit and ended up dropping that game as well.
00:06:23
If passed from homes, is healthy all 16 weeks.
00:06:27
If even if you know, they even if cried, cried Edwards, who Layer isn't everything that they're building among up to be.
00:06:34
I think he's still gonna be a serviceable running back.
00:06:36
They have not really had started running backs in their backfield for the most part anyway.
00:06:41
Kareem Hunt obviously was a big part of that team.
00:06:45
He's gone.
00:06:46
They go on and win a Super Bowl so they don't need a stud running back in order to find success.
00:06:51
They've got a lot of talent on the outside, I think, Um, I think, Ah, what's his name? I just had it in my mind.
00:07:00
Um, it'll come to me.
00:07:02
Meco Hardman.
00:07:03
Thank you.
00:07:04
Um, I think Michael Hardman is a underrated player in fantasy.
00:07:09
This year, I was able to get him really, really deep in a few of my drafts.
00:07:12
I think he's gonna play a big part in this Kansas City offenses.
00:07:15
Well, I just don't see them losing.
00:07:18
Six games are five or six games.
00:07:21
Excuse me? Not very easily, at least, right.
00:07:24
Like there's still wiggle room for them to have a couple down weeks.
00:07:29
We're not predicting them to go 16.
00:07:30
And now here, um, they're just not built toe have a Super Bowl hangover.
00:07:36
You know, there's some teams where you can predict it, but yeah, it would take a lot, I think.
00:07:42
Yeah.
00:07:43
And I think, um, you know, you see, a lot of guys will get paid and they just don't have the career changes.
00:07:50
They don't have a great year after whatever.
00:07:52
I think the exact opposite things gonna happen. Patrick Mahomes.
00:07:55
I think he's still gonna get better.
00:07:56
People also forget I'm maybe they don't but like they don't give enough credit to pass from homes age.
00:08:01
This guy's only been in the league for a few years.
00:08:03
He's really young.
00:08:04
He's going to get better.
00:08:05
He's going to keep him very coachable.
00:08:07
Guy is, he's gonna win more Super Bowls, and I think this year is just as possible as any other year that they repeat.
00:08:14
Um, I think Andy Reid is in a great, great mindset.
00:08:18
Ah, prepared to take this team to high, high high levels, So if you're betting against them, I'm not quite sure what thought processes I would like to hear.
00:08:29
It may be, ah, if any of you that are watching live or anybody that watches the replay of this stream are down on the Chiefs, for whatever reason, please enlighten Zack and I, but I just don't see completely agree.
00:08:45
Let's go to Sin City.
00:08:47
New team.
00:08:48
Las Vegas Raiders 17 and nine last season over under set at 7.5.
00:08:55
Man.
00:08:56
I've been going back and forth on this.
00:08:57
I had them winning eight games, which would be the over, but who? I don't know, man.
00:09:02
This secondary is horrendous.
00:09:06
Um, I'm really debating about it cause I need a lack this in probably tonight.
00:09:13
I'll probably go seven games.
00:09:14
Theo under what's your thoughts? Yeah, I agree with you there.
00:09:19
Draftkings has this line at seven.
00:09:22
So either way you take it.
00:09:23
You have that potential for a push, but the under is is giving you a favorable line at minus one or four.
00:09:29
I think the chances are they go under.
00:09:32
Chances are a lot higher than going over anyways.
00:09:35
Ah, I got him at seven and nine at their best.
00:09:37
I've said it many times.
00:09:39
I just don't think eventually wants this Raiders team find success once grew and find success.
00:09:45
I just don't think it's going to be Derek Carr That's under center.
00:09:49
I think they're gonna have to move on from him at some point.
00:09:52
I think this might be his final year there, especially if they do go seven and nine again.
00:09:57
Then all of a sudden you're looking at, you know, um, Gruden's staring at Year five of his 10 year contract and they haven't won.
00:10:04
You know they've won as many games.
00:10:06
The Chiefs have won in the last two years like that's not.
00:10:09
That's not something that you just can keep rolling forward and try and push through their building up talent around them.
00:10:15
Obviously, we like Darren Waller.
00:10:16
We like Josh Jacobs, but they're gonna have to be really good in their division.
00:10:21
Um, because they are playing, you know, the Saints Patriots of the Buccaneers, all the same themes that we've been talking about through the A F C West here, Not easy games.
00:10:33
And, ah, teams that the Raiders have not matched up well with in the past.
00:10:39
I think that the Chargers air gonna have their number.
00:10:41
I think the Chiefs are gonna beat him twice.
00:10:43
And the Broncos, they're not gonna be an easy out for them as well.
00:10:47
Eso the Raiders might have another tough year, and then again, I was sudden.
00:10:51
You're looking at a 10 year, $100 million contract and you're already halfway through this thing.
00:10:56
You haven't even really sniffed the playoffs, so I think it's another average year.
00:11:00
I'm gonna take the under seven just because that's the more favorable line.
00:11:05
So either way, I think you might push this because I do think they're gonna win seven games, but more likely gonna win six games in eight games, I would say in their first round, rookie cornerback is out with an injury.
00:11:19
I think you might be missing a couple games.
00:11:22
That's huge, because the secondary already wasn't good.
00:11:25
Now they're horrendous and at risk of losing to the Panthers Week one, because all the Panthers want to do is pass.
00:11:31
That's the thing, too, is this offense has not been known to churn out points.
00:11:34
Eso if you ain't got a really bad defense and they're gonna have to score 30 to 35 points to compete every week, that's I don't like that.
00:11:43
I think there are offensive line still solid.
00:11:45
I think Josh Jacobs is good, I think.
00:11:48
Losing title.
00:11:49
Williams the wide receivers.
00:11:50
A big loss cause now you're relying on two rookie starting wide receivers and, ah, Hunter Renfroe, who's a second year, I think, second or 30 receiver and Darren Waller, who's kind of a second year tight knit.
00:12:04
He's been the league for a little bit but is not super experience, so there's a lot of inexperience and overall I've been discounting teams with inexperienced this year just because of lack of prep time, lack of time together and stuff like that.
00:12:18
So along the same pattern there.
00:12:21
But just talking about dare car really quick cause I was on a couple podcasts.
00:12:25
We're talking to Matt McCoy, another expert in the industry, And we were We were discussing their car for a little bit. Interesting.
00:12:34
Staff came up.
00:12:36
Doesn't matter. The down.
00:12:37
So 1st, 2nd, 3rd or fourth down their cards, average death.
00:12:42
The target is essentially the same on every single down, which is horrible.
00:12:47
That's crazy.
00:12:48
It's crazy just because it just shows mentally he doesn't.
00:12:52
He doesn't get it like physically.
00:12:54
I think he's a good quarterback.
00:12:55
Physically, Mentally.
00:12:57
I don't think he gets It shows he's not passing to the sticks or just trying to pick up.
00:13:02
You know what he needs or he doesn't understand what he's seeing or the game around him.
00:13:08
And you don't Grudin.
00:13:10
He is an exercise in those guy, and you need to know and love football, and it doesn't seem I dare car is that so? I think you're right.
00:13:18
I don't think he's the guy there.
00:13:20
Situational football is another big phrase that Gruden would always use.
00:13:25
He would use that in his Q B camp TV show when he was in the Monday night booth.
00:13:30
Situational football and what you just said about Derek Carr does not make me think at all.
00:13:34
He, you know, understands or even, um, I guess, processes the different situations that you're in.
00:13:42
When do you need to throw it? Were throw a pass the sticks one commune when do not throw it deep and take the yards that are being given to you underneath all of those types of things.
00:13:50
If you're averaging the same exact thing down to one through four, that nuts agreed.
00:13:58
Let's move on to the last time the division and a team I've been talking up all offseason, so I'm sure you already know which side I'm on.
00:14:05
Los Angeles Chargers When five and 12 last year quarterback switched to Tyrod Taylor this year over under set at seven.
00:14:13
I'm going over before the Derwin James injury.
00:14:16
I had them winning 10 games.
00:14:18
I have it all the way down to eight games now and I think if I knew they were going to get Earl Thomas, which I think they will.
00:14:24
I would put them at nine.
00:14:26
So I think they're comfortably in.
00:14:28
Over.
00:14:29
What about you? As do I? I have them at 18 8.
00:14:33
Still pretty comfortable over though, cause I have them dropping.
00:14:36
Maybe one random game.
00:14:37
I think they have all the potential to go hide in seven.
00:14:40
Listen to the front end of this schedule.
00:14:42
I believe they could go five and eight through the front end of the schedule of the EPA.
00:14:46
Favorable Week 10.
00:14:48
So all you gotta do is find three more wins on the back end of the schedule.
00:14:52
They start off the season with the Bangles.
00:14:54
Tough matchup week, too.
00:14:55
With the Chiefs.
00:14:56
Obviously probably gonna lose that one.
00:14:58
But then you go, Uh, handers, you got jets two weeks after that.
00:15:03
Dolphins after that Jag wires after that.
00:15:05
And then Raiders after that.
00:15:07
Then here comes the ah, the week 10 by week that I was telling you about.
00:15:13
Then it gets a little tougher with the Broncos Bills, Patriots, Falcons on, and you end the season with Raiders Broncos chiefs.
00:15:21
But if you can find a way to pick up three of those games on the back end, which all be it will be difficult.
00:15:28
I mean, by that time of the season, the Patriots are not gonna be an easy out Falcons.
00:15:32
Who knows what they're gonna be.
00:15:33
But they should be, Ah, competitive this year.
00:15:36
And then you got three division games, including the Chiefs, to end the season.
00:15:40
But all you gotta do is find two or three games on that back in.
00:15:43
You're gonna catch this bet again.
00:15:45
Let me just really quickly read the teams that they're playing early on.
00:15:50
I never mind.
00:15:51
I won't cause my computer fourth closed like it always does.
00:15:54
Um, all right, let's go. L A Chargers.
00:16:02
No, I can't write hate when that happens.
00:16:05
Anyways, Their plan.
00:16:07
The Panthers, the Bangles.
00:16:09
Ah, bad teams.
00:16:10
And they're playing.
00:16:11
I'm always to the Jets and they get to play in three weeks in a row.
00:16:13
So, uh, you can stomp.
00:16:15
It doesn't matter how what teams are playing.
00:16:17
If you can stop teams three weeks in a row going into the bye week, get yourself feeling really good.
00:16:23
Even with the competitive back end of the schedule, I think the charges will be able to piece something together.
00:16:28
Derwin James.
00:16:29
Being out is a big loss for me there. Derwin James.
00:16:32
Two huge hater.
00:16:33
If you think back to his Florida State State days, he would just blow people up safety that was always in the backfield.
00:16:39
He's a good player, but he's not the whole defense.
00:16:42
You still got studs like Ingram and Bosa.
00:16:45
And who knows? You might have some young guys to that are gonna be able to eat because of the offensive line Gonna be so focused on those other pass rushers.
00:16:52
I think this team has potential to win even more games than were saying, but 18 8 seems like a pretty safe, but so I'm gonna try and catch the over 7.
00:17:01
5 lots of juice.
00:17:03
So it seems like the line makers ah, didn't want to move that line up it all.
00:17:08
But I wanted to make you pay for it.
00:17:10
If you were gonna take the over.
00:17:11
It's at minus 1 41 which is one of the, uh, larger lines that we have talked about here overall.
00:17:19
But I don't think you're gonna have to worry about it.
00:17:22
No, and they have playmakers, every single level of their defense, which is huge and talking about the secondary.
00:17:30
You know, they have Casey Hayward, who we know is one of the best corners in the league.
00:17:35
They brought in Chris Harris Jr.
00:17:36
Who's another one of the best corners in league.
00:17:39
I can't remember the second safety they have, but he's a stud outside of Derwin James, then Gus Bradley, defensive coordinator connection with Earl Thomas in Seattle.
00:17:48
I would assume moral times comes in eventually, once the dust settles and they can figure out what the contract is.
00:17:54
But if he comes into play safety for the Chargers, I don't know, man like, I don't think this team loses that many games and just decide No talking about fantasy for a little bit, the schedule you just talked about if they're not losing those games, Tyrod Taylor is that dude for the season, right like that, you can trust him for fantasy, and this is one of the biggest sleepers and fantasy for especially quarterback.
00:18:21
He is, I think, like 1/30 quarterback going off the board, maybe lower.
00:18:27
So he's free and he is going to be a start this year.
00:18:31
Yeah, and I I think to? The more I look at it, I just don't see Herbert getting much time because you're gonna be in position to make the playoffs at least compete for Not if you can go five and five and three, maybe even six and three through those first 10 weeks up until you're bye week.
00:18:49
You're not gonna throw Justin Herbert in there even if you lose.
00:18:53
You know, 34 games in a row when it's coming down to the stretch and you end the season with three division games.
00:18:58
That's in the house when you throw in your rookie quarterback for the first time.
00:19:01
So as long as they can get through Week 10 and having over 500 record, I think Tyronn Taylor job is very safe.
00:19:09
Um, I think he's gonna play just fine.
00:19:11
Tyrod Taylor has played fine at every single one of this stops.
00:19:15
It's just none of this seems that he played for were ready for that type of quarterback in that type of situation.
00:19:21
I guess they were still looking for bigger and better.
00:19:24
They were still up and coming with the Bills and the Browns and they were bad enough teams to get in position for a very high draft pick, a high, highly touted quarterback.
00:19:35
I don't think that's where the Chargers are right now.
00:19:37
Obviously, they got their quarterback already last year with Herbert, but I think that the team is better right now than probably both the Bills and the Browns were during Tyrone's 10 year at both of those organizations.
00:19:52
I think he's going toe play just fine, and I think the Chargers are going to compete.
00:19:57
Those last few weeks are gonna be tough because you're gonna have the Broncos who are also problem possibly going to be competing.
00:20:04
The Chiefs Week 17.
00:20:07
You might be able to pick that game up because the Chiefs probably will be resting their starters.
00:20:11
I'm sure their playoff spot is going to be safe and must have playing for number one overall seed or something like that.
00:20:18
Ah, but the back end of the schedule is going to be Tyrod.
00:20:21
Taylor is time to shine and, man, if he's able to win like nine games with this team or something like that, I I feel bad for him because it's almost like he's gonna be booted out again.
00:20:33
Same same thing is his last two teams.
00:20:35
Even though he played just fine.
00:20:38
He doesn't turn the ball over that much, but there is a guy already in the wings waiting S o.
00:20:44
I think it's his team this year beyond this year.
00:20:47
I mean, he's gonna have to ball out.
00:20:48
He's gonna be active.
00:20:49
Probably like an M V P candidate.
00:20:51
In order to work here is John for next year as well, But so far, our throughout the season.
00:20:57
Excuse me, Tyrod Taylor seems like a guy you can bank on and also going back to the, uh, charges defense.
00:21:03
They create a lot of turnovers.
00:21:04
Casey Hayward is always towards the top of the interception list.
00:21:08
He's perennial All star.
00:21:10
He's a guy that the Packers just left.
00:21:12
Walk away for God knows what reason, and he's he's made a home for himself out in the sun out in San Diego and Los Angeles, obviously loves playing in that defense, and he's not a guy that quarterbacks are afraid to throw at, either, which just benefits him even more because he's a good cover guy and he's a ball hawk.
00:21:30
He's he's ah, interception maniac.
00:21:32
So I think Tyrod Taylor and that offense could have extra possessions all throughout the course of the season.
00:21:38
Should win.
00:21:39
Some games should be great and fantasy one of the lowest drink defense of units in the entire league, according to the consensus.
00:21:48
Except for this guy, for whatever reason, on fantasy post my 10th ring defense this week, which is 18 spots higher than the consensus.
00:21:57
Tell me why. I don't know.
00:21:59
Ah, I would like to thank Go rams and let me be frank for tipping.
00:22:04
By the way, thank you.
00:22:05
It's very much appreciated any final thoughts about this division before we head over to the East? No, I think, um, if you got money on anybody but the Chiefs winning this division, I think your silly Ah, the Chiefs are obviously going to dominate within the division.
00:22:23
But it's up to the other three teams then, too.
00:22:26
Ah, see who is the elite team behind the Chiefs? There are probably gonna beat up on each other.
00:22:32
But if one of these teams can it sweep even one of the other teams, that gives them a huge advantage, they're all probably gonna lose majority of the games to the Chiefs.
00:22:40
Uh, good looking at it.
00:22:43
It's gonna be a competitive division all the way through.
00:22:46
I think the Raiders are probably in the worst spot of this division, Broncos and Chargers that we're gonna have a race all year long.
00:22:53
Is it gonna matter when we get to the playoffs? Eventually? Probably not, but still, it'll be fun to watch and something you touched on earlier that I want to bring up.
00:23:04
It's not necessarily related to this division, but we added another playoff spot for each conference, right? So next to wild card, not only does that improve playoff chances, if you're betting on that, but now that means only the one seed gets a bye week.
00:23:19
So we're looking at these weeks.
00:23:20
17 match ups and less.
00:23:22
Teams were going to be resting their players now because there's only one team getting a by.
00:23:26
They need to compete for it, and if they're in the running for it, you know it's less of a chance that they get a bye week.
00:23:33
So that's going to be a more competitive Week 17 which was by design.
00:23:37
So should be fun.
00:23:39
I think it'll bake it for more interesting football on the field, just in general, but also for fantasy.
00:23:45
I mean, most.
00:23:46
Most leagues probably don't run through Week 17 but if this becomes the standard ah, in in upcoming years, you might be able to do all 17 weeks in your fantasy leagues.
00:23:56
And it might make things even more interesting having competitive Week 17.
00:24:01
Obviously, whoever runs your league, whoever is the commissioner, that's gonna be up to them.
00:24:05
I'm not so sure I would want my championship running through Week 17.
00:24:09
But if it becomes I said it becomes regular, we see a few years of highly competitive week, 17 games.
00:24:14
That's just gonna add another potential leak to fantasy as well.
00:24:18
Exactly.
00:24:19
Love it.
00:24:20
Absolutely love it.
00:24:21
Let's go to the East, a division that's been predictable for the past two decades.
00:24:27
But now it's kind of turned upside down.
00:24:30
The Buffalo Bills, winning 10 games last year over under set at 8.5.
00:24:35
I think this is an easy over.
00:24:36
What do you think? Easy over Manning.
00:24:39
It's adding it to my list of favorite bets, Um, right at them going in nine and seven with the potential of repeating last year's 10 and six.
00:24:48
I think they stole a game or two last year.
00:24:51
I can't tell you which ones.
00:24:52
Specifically, I was looking earlier, but they had a few close calls.
00:24:56
Um, their defense made a few key stops for them.
00:24:58
But Josh Palin, I think, is going to keep getting better on digs.
00:25:02
How much of a difference he makes? Not quite sure, but he definitely doesn't make this team any worse.
00:25:08
I love Brown.
00:25:09
Ah, Singletary's good.
00:25:11
And I think Doug McDermott has kind of figured out the A F C East, um, figured out how to a win in that division and with the Patriots.
00:25:21
Such a question mark, I I favor the Bills toe win this division right now, and I'm going to be putting a future bet on them.
00:25:27
It's not huge.
00:25:28
I think it's like plus 2 20 or something like that.
00:25:31
For the Bills to win.
00:25:32
It still like that line.
00:25:34
Still like the possibility I think the Patriots are gonna be who will talk about a minute.
00:25:38
I think they're gonna be good enough to compete for the division, but I think the Bills are the more overall complete team I think they have more offensive talent.
00:25:47
And again, I think job.
00:25:48
Fallon is just going to continue to get better.
00:25:51
It still needs to work on his accuracy a little bit.
00:25:53
That's been his one big knock, but he's he's young.
00:25:56
Yet to eso nine and seven seems a pretty good possibility for me if you really are high on this team, which I actually think I might throw a small bet on this.
00:26:06
There's also another line, a secondary line of 9.5.
00:26:10
It's a little bit more risky, but instead of laying 1 43 year getting a plus 1 63 payouts, so it's a massive swing there.
00:26:19
If you are really high on this Bills team, take that over 9.
00:26:22
5 at plus 1 63.
00:26:25
Otherwise, if you want to play it safe, take the over eight point and I do have them winning 10 games again.
00:26:31
So again, it's a much tougher bet.
00:26:33
But I'm willing to take it for those odds, for sure.
00:26:37
And yeah, by far the most talented team in the division Patriots.
00:26:43
I'm not sure if this is a bold take or not.
00:26:45
I think patriots are the least talented team in the entire division.
00:26:48
They're the best coached, obviously.
00:26:50
But talent wise, this team is bottom 10 in the league for sure with ease.
00:26:57
This is somebody you could argue.
00:26:58
You know, the Jets do have players.
00:27:00
Of course they traded away Jamal Adams.
00:27:02
The Jets have layers.
00:27:03
They just don't work too well, cohesively.
00:27:05
So if you just want to talk straight up ah standpoint, I'd probably agree with you there.
00:27:10
The Patriots are lacking on offense terribly, terribly lacking on offense and their defense.
00:27:17
Last year looked phenomenal through about eight weeks, and then they turned completely pedestrian.
00:27:24
The defense is getting older as well.
00:27:26
Of course you got Thea, um, according twins and a couple other guys that have been staples of that defense forever.
00:27:32
But they're getting older and, uh, eventually they're just not gonna be the same players that they were.
00:27:38
We'll also you talk about the other guys.
00:27:40
Well, we'll jump right into the patrons here.
00:27:42
But the other guys you're talking about there not even there.
00:27:46
I think they lost six starters from their defense from last year.
00:27:49
No Calvin Calvin noise in Miami.
00:27:51
You have Collins and Detroit you had Ah Chong and High Tower Opt out.
00:28:00
Gone.
00:28:01
Think that guys are gone and I am sure they have talent to step up guys that can feel specific roles.
00:28:07
Patriots are good at it, but they're no names right now, so I don't know.
00:28:13
It's rough.
00:28:14
They won 12 games last year, the over under set of eight games just because of Bill Belichick.
00:28:20
And this is just because of Bill Belichick. I'm winning nine.
00:28:24
Ah, yeah, If it is that eight games, you know, like you said, you get the chance for a push.
00:28:30
That's good.
00:28:31
I'd highly doubt they would go under 18 8, I guess just because they're New England Yeah, I've got the line at 85 but I still was leaning over just because it's the same thing.
00:28:42
Um, all these years I've been saying, you know, I'm I'm not gonna bet against Tom Brady or I'm gonna prove it.
00:28:48
Hamp Ah, with Tom Brady.
00:28:50
When everybody said that he was completely done.
00:28:53
And now I'm gonna just feel the same way above Bill Belichick and his patriots.
00:28:58
I just don't I don't think just because Brady moved on the Patriots, all of a sudden become horrible team and our sub 500 team.
00:29:05
I can't remember the last time that bill ballots that coached a 500 team was it when he was with the Browns? I really don't even know.
00:29:12
Uh, so I just don't see them going 88 Even at 8.
00:29:16
5, I'm gonna take the over just on principle.
00:29:20
Uh, I still would avoid this line.
00:29:24
Overall, we're talking real.
00:29:25
Bet real money because the over is minus 1 50.
00:29:28
And I don't feel good enough about this team toe Leia. Mine.
00:29:31
It's one thing if you're talking almost even money, you're minus 1 10 or something.
00:29:34
Sure, I'm gonna take a shot.
00:29:35
But there are so many other ah teams and lines that I would rather put my money on you.
00:29:42
A $50 bet on this team, wouldn't you? What would that be like 30 $1930.
00:29:50
Um, why can't I do this meth 25 2025 bucks? Yeah, I I can't I can't do my math right now, but anyways, you're not be about 30 bucks, I believe.
00:30:01
Anyway, your money is much well spent on Ah, other other bets.
00:30:06
Other lines Just don't know what this Patriots squad is going to be.
00:30:10
But if you're gonna yank my leg, I will take the over again on Princess.
00:30:15
If they go 18 8, won't be super shocked.
00:30:18
If they go seven and nine on, I'm gonna start, be start being surprised.
00:30:23
Right? And I looked it up.
00:30:24
Bill Bell, check coaching record by year.
00:30:27
Last time you went under eight, Nate was his very first season in New England, where you went 5 11.
00:30:33
Since then, he's had one season with nine wins in the rest of double digit wins.
00:30:40
So yeah, I'm I'm Brady was there for most of it, but Tom Brady has was not always Tom Brady.
00:30:47
You know, he didn't he didn't have the best year of every single year of any quarterback ever.
00:30:53
They had absent flows of talent on defense talent around Brady.
00:30:57
And because of Bill Belichick, they still found a way to win all of these games.
00:31:01
Cam Newton is not a bum is not gonna be horrible.
00:31:05
They're gonna find ways to use them, um, and and to win without having to realize super heavily on him.
00:31:13
They do also play a few teams where I think they're kind of give me games and again they beat the Jets and the Dolphins.
00:31:20
They beat the pants off of them almost every single year.
00:31:23
Both teams.
00:31:24
We're gonna be better this year, but I just don't see Bill Belichick losing a ton of games within his own division.
00:31:31
And then, of course, they do play tough teams like the Seahawks and the Chiefs and the Texans and the Rams.
00:31:38
What Bill Bell check has beat all of those defense? Are all of those ah teams before he's outcoached.
00:31:44
All of those coaches before? So I think it's not a super safe, but but it's not a stretch here to try and cash this over completely.
00:31:56
Agree.
00:31:57
It's most likely a spot I'm going to avoid, I guess.
00:32:00
But, yeah, I'd lean over.
00:32:02
Let's go down to Miami, a team everyone thought was tanking last year, and then they stumbled into a few wins in a row.
00:32:09
Somehow they went five and 12.
00:32:14
What was that? Is they still got their guy anyways tanking? Not right.
00:32:19
Not trick like you don't even need to do any of that.
00:32:21
You still got your guy exactly, and they won five games.
00:32:24
The over under went up to 6.
00:32:25
5 this season.
00:32:28
They were big spenders in the off season.
00:32:31
They brought in a couple of really big money defensive players.
00:32:33
So Brian Floors is building his team.
00:32:36
I think he's doing a really good job, but I am going six and 10 which is the under.
00:32:42
What's your thoughts there? I'm going to six in 10 as well.
00:32:47
I think we're gonna have a classic Fitch Mint fits magic season where everybody's gonna be like, Oh, the Dolphins fits magic and he looks really good and then he just completely falls off a cliff.
00:32:56
Then it will be to a time, and it will take a few weeks for two or to get his feet wet.
00:33:01
He's not gonna come out in and just completely tear up.
00:33:03
Defense is like things up, so if you combine those a few weeks where it's magic, Eyes has no magic left and then a few weeks we're two is getting acclimated.
00:33:15
You have a whole stretch of games where the Dolphins will probably drop.
00:33:18
Ah, lot of games.
00:33:19
You might pick up a few on the front end of the back end of the season.
00:33:23
They don't have the easiest schedule either.
00:33:25
Again, playing teams will like the Patriots.
00:33:27
Bill fills.
00:33:28
Of course.
00:33:29
I think they're gonna beat him a few times.
00:33:30
Seahawks 40 Niners Broncos match up well with them.
00:33:34
Ah, you can just keep going down the list.
00:33:36
So it's it's going to be a better season.
00:33:38
Things are looking up for the Dolphins, but ah, it's still gonna be tough.
00:33:43
It's gonna be tough sledding.
00:33:44
And I don't think the Dolphins fans there should be really clamoring for two way to get into early either.
00:33:50
I think you gotta ride out.
00:33:52
Uh, what you've got with with Fitzpatrick, I think you gotta let this team kind of develop, see how good the defense is gonna be, and then when two was actually ready, Or maybe, ah, when you get like, a softer break, if you ah, a few weeks in a row where you're not playing top of the league teams, then you might want to throw to in there.
00:34:13
But I just don't think that he is going to step in and make a massive difference.
00:34:20
I think he's gonna be a good quarterback down the line, but he's also a pocket quarterback.
00:34:26
So if they can keep him, if they can allow him time and they can allow him to read the read the field, keep him safe, keep him upright.
00:34:34
I think two is gonna be really good, but if you throw him in, the offensive line is not at its best.
00:34:40
He's gotta run around, test out that hip make throat run, throws on the run, which he is good at but throws on the run in college of different than throws on the run in the NFL, especially against cornerbacks that are lightening fast compared toa half the teams at Alabama were playing.
00:34:56
You just can't make those same kind of desperate, not desperation.
00:35:00
But I guess close call throws in your rookie year as as an NFL quarterback.
00:35:05
So I think the Dolphins go six in 10 at their best, So I'm gonna take the under minus 1 34 as well.
00:35:13
Um, I said, I kind of wrote down, avoid this line they over achieved last year in a few ways on.
00:35:22
Then they have the, uh ah perfectly placed line.
00:35:29
Let's say I can't even read my my chicken scratch here.
00:35:33
But anyway, they have the tendency.
00:35:34
Basically, what I wrote was too.
00:35:38
Start start off.
00:35:40
Okay, uh, maybe try and piece of season together and then just a whole lot of nothing.
00:35:45
So I think that's what we're going to see again.
00:35:47
And then again to is gonna take some time to get acclimated.
00:35:50
Ryan Fitzpatrick just keeps on thriving.
00:35:54
He's making his money, He's gonna go out, He's gonna play his heart out.
00:35:58
You have no that all the time with Fitzpatrick, like he's going to try and win.
00:36:01
He beat the Patriots in a huge spot last year.
00:36:04
Fitzpatrick is Ah, fine, serviceable quarterback, but gonna be facing a lot of unfavorable matchups this year.
00:36:12
So the under 6.
00:36:14
5 is a pretty comfortable.
00:36:16
But for me, seven and nine would be I would be very impressed with the Dolphins.
00:36:20
They pull out seven games this year.
00:36:23
So if you're predicting fits magic early in the season, are you predicting that week one upset in fax, bro? Then I don't know about if I don't know about in Foxboro, I think I think it'll be a close game, but I don't know if it's a Tom Brady thing or Patriots thing overall, but they can't win in Miami.
00:36:42
They have no problem winning, in fact, grow.
00:36:44
UH, no matter.
00:36:45
No matter who So little hands.
00:36:48
What's that little hands? It's hot in Florida.
00:36:52
I'm docket 9.38 inches.
00:36:54
Looked it up.
00:36:55
Today, tiny hands can grip a football Tom Brady.
00:36:58
And that is ex ah, number one reason for why the Buccaneers? They're gonna stink this year as well.
00:37:02
Tom Brady's tiny little hands.
00:37:04
But yeah, for some reason, they just can't win down in Miami.
00:37:07
But again, they have no problem just throttling the Dolphins.
00:37:11
Week one and FAQ Boxborough.
00:37:13
I think we might see the same thing a little bit less about throttling because there is no time Brady but Dolphins.
00:37:19
I have them losing Week one to the Patriots for sure.
00:37:23
Uh, doesn't mean Fitzpatrick's not gonna have a good game.
00:37:26
No, doesn't mean he can't throw a few touchdowns.
00:37:28
Uh, run a few touchdowns.
00:37:30
We always see that our fits Magic Red Zone Flash.
00:37:33
Just 20 minutes, Week two and he's got 300 yards, four touchdowns through the air and two on the ground, and it's like running people over your lower his shoulder on anybody.
00:37:43
Oh, he will run you over yet, And he loves it, too.
00:37:45
He gets up and he's just jacked.
00:37:47
And, you know, that's the guy who started to age a little bit Harvard grad like there's plenty of reasons for him not to try and run you over.
00:37:54
But he's not gonna avoid you.
00:37:56
So I think fits magic.
00:37:57
Gonna have some fun up in Foxboro.
00:37:59
Is he gonna win? Is he gonna leave the Dolphins to a victory? Chances are probably not.
00:38:05
But again, um, there's hope for this Dolphins team and fits magic.
00:38:11
I think is the perfect bridge quarterback for them right now.
00:38:14
And, by the way, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
00:38:16
I think he has, like, third or fourth biggest hands out of any quarterback in the league just saying, Why would Miami take one? And they that's absolutely right.
00:38:27
Ah, there's a couple of spots Week one.
00:38:29
I know this isn't a Week one show, but there's Ah couple trapped games.
00:38:32
Really scary games.
00:38:34
I've seen a lot of people right up saying Patriots are the best survivor pick for Week one for Survivor pools This is not a gimme, especially with the people who Miami traded for, not traded for, like signed in the offseason like there's multiple Patriots that are now on that roster.
00:38:51
They know all the little things in Foxboro that they're gonna have to deal with.
00:38:55
It's not the same Fox, bro.
00:38:57
I don't know the fan capacity is gonna be, but obviously it's not the same.
00:39:01
That's a trap spot.
00:39:02
The other one is Washington against Philadelphia for offense of line reasons.
00:39:08
But yeah, so and just kind of close some thoughts here on the Dolphins, by the way.
00:39:17
No way am I talked to this game in Week one in a survivor pool, even even if you have by in five acts or whatever available, like, why would you take such a risk in the first week of basically just cost, you know, potentially tossing your money out the window? I like to take somewhat of an easy game, not like the easiest game possible.
00:39:35
I like to save those for later in the season, but enough survivor pool.
00:39:38
I like to take, you know, a virtual lock in the first two weeks just to feel good kind of see where they see how the teams are playing out, See how things are looking on the field.
00:39:47
And then I might start getting a little deeper into, um, closer calls there.
00:39:52
But avoiding that game in a survivor pool week one for sure.
00:39:55
Just want some last thoughts on the Dolphins schedule.
00:39:59
And when we might see to, uh, I think the perfect opportunity for two.
00:40:02
Uh, might come, let's see.
00:40:04
12345 So that would be week nine.
00:40:10
Then they have a bye week and then week 11.
00:40:13
I believe if I'm doing if I'm counting correct here, they play the Jets in back to back weeks.
00:40:18
Uh, okay, we lost Jake.
00:40:26
Let's finish up here talking about the Jets, okay? Hey, it was my Internet This time.
00:40:32
Jets went seven and nine last season.
00:40:35
Oh, chicks Here they back my computer decided to force close this tab.
00:40:39
This time I got to get there, OK, it's I don't know what's wrong with it, but anyway, as I was saying, if they only have one or two wins going into that back to back matchup against the Jets with the bye week in the middle.
00:40:54
I think that's the perfect time to try and play.
00:40:56
Two of the Jets are not an elite team.
00:40:58
Ah, you put him in there for the first week, see what he does.
00:41:02
See what you can do.
00:41:03
Then you take the bye week, study that film, uh, work with him a little bit, and then you come back and play that since same exact team again for a second week in a row.
00:41:12
I think that's a good situation for a young quarterback.
00:41:15
And but I don't think I don't think, Ah, at any point before that, you're gonna want to throw him in just to rattle off the teams that they played before those matchups against the Jets.
00:41:25
They have the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks, 40 Niners, Broncos, Chargers, Rams and then they also play the Cardinals and the Jaguars in there, which is, I think the Jags is when they can pick up their win.
00:41:38
Cardinals could go either way, but, I mean, that's a pretty brutal way to start off your season.
00:41:43
So if things if you're already aren't you know, one in one and eight or whatever through those first nine weeks, you might as well put to it in there again against the same team two weeks in a row.
00:41:54
I think that's a good situation for him, and I think that's my that might be when we see him this season, Who did they play after that? Second Jets can eso they go Jets, jets, and then Bangles, which I forgot to.
00:42:07
Ah, I forgot to throw that in there.
00:42:09
But that's another another favorable matchup a little bit.
00:42:12
Who knows how good the Bangles will or will not be by that point in the season.
00:42:16
But everybody's gonna want to see to overseas Joe Borough anyway.
00:42:19
If you go Jen, it's Bangles before having to face the Chiefs, Pats, Raiders and Bills down the line.
00:42:27
I mean, if you're gonna put him in at any point this season, you're not gonna wait again.
00:42:30
We kind of talked about it talking about Justin Herbert, but you're not gonna wait until week work 13 14 when you're facing the Chiefs and the Patriots and then ending your season with the Bills, you're probably gonna want to get his feet wet before that and two games in a row against the Jets and then the Bangles seems like the perfect opportunity.
00:42:49
And then you can see what this guy can do through those last four weeks.
00:42:54
Yeah, you're right.
00:42:55
I was wondering if they had, like, an opponent that with the really tough pass rush after the Jets, just because they're not gonna put two in behind this offensive line because they're terrible.
00:43:07
Um, I think they gave up the most sacks in the league last year to Fitzpatrick, who somehow wasn't hurt.
00:43:14
But ah, yeah, against those opponents, the only one that scares use the bills.
00:43:19
And this week, 17 and yeah, they'll be okay.
00:43:22
They'll put two running backs in the backfield of protecting if they need.
00:43:25
Teoh doesn't really.
00:43:27
And again, that gives.
00:43:28
Probably not it.
00:43:29
Probably being a lot more for the bills than the Dolphins.
00:43:31
So I mean, yeah, have if to was a little beat up where you do have any concerns or whatever, you You don't have to, you know, have him out there and risk him or anything.
00:43:40
You might even be able to go back to Fitzpatrick depending on how what the season calls for your well, a game against the Bills.
00:43:47
There we go.
00:43:48
There we go.
00:43:49
NFL narrative schedules already set up.
00:43:51
See, doing that.
00:43:53
Magic has come up huge in week 17 before, so why not throw him out there again? It to a is not going to make or break this Dolphins team.
00:44:00
They have a low ceiling already.
00:44:03
One that I don't think, too.
00:44:04
It really raises all that much in his first season.
00:44:07
But if you're gonna put him at all this first season, which you kind of have to write, you don't draft a guy that's that good and not play him at all s.
00:44:15
So I think that about six weeks span there, um, up until you play the bills is the perfect opportunity.
00:44:23
Chiefs are another team, though, that you're gonna be able to really test your young quarterback against Chief Star, confusing defense to read time.
00:44:30
And Matthew always freaks have back there.
00:44:32
If you can hold your own against the Chiefs, that's a good sign.
00:44:36
Completely agree.
00:44:37
And who would draft a quarterback in the first round and not playing good? Good thoughts, Jake.
00:44:43
Well, I don't know.
00:44:45
Shots at the Packers here don't mean when you have an Rogers and also shouldn't drafted Jordan love in first round.
00:44:51
Anyways, gasp to uh is different than Jordan love, and I don't think that that's bold.
00:44:57
Take. You heard it here first.
00:44:59
Let's go.
00:45:00
Let's set this clip all around.
00:45:02
Yeah, I can't believe I said that.
00:45:04
But to was better than Jordan.
00:45:05
Look, I said, I don't know. I don't know.
00:45:09
We'll find out.
00:45:10
That's what we'll do.
00:45:11
We'll find out. Maybe.
00:45:13
You know what? Maybe Jordan loves air next. Taysom Hill.
00:45:16
We can hope threw him out there.
00:45:18
Let's finish with the A F C East with the toughest team for me and the team.
00:45:24
I am still.
00:45:25
Honestly, I'm still thinking about what I'm gonna do with them.
00:45:29
The New York Jets.
00:45:30
They want seven games last year, obviously, they were missing Sam Donald for a big stretch over Under said at 6.
00:45:35
5, so they're expected to regress.
00:45:38
Honestly, this team has such a negative or around, um, pick because of Adam case.
00:45:43
That's pretty much it.
00:45:45
Adam cases a moron, by all accounts, but they made good decisions in the off season like front office made the right decisions, investing in the offense of line that did their thing defense took a big hit, obviously trading away Jamal Adams.
00:46:00
I have them winning six games, so going under the man, I feel like I'm over.
00:46:08
I feel like I'm just glossing over the good moves that they didn't make.
00:46:12
And maybe they're better than people are giving them credit for.
00:46:15
So talk me out of changing it to an over.
00:46:18
But I can't do that because I'm on the under as well.
00:46:22
Um, again, so much juice with this under minus 1 50 Eso I don't I don't love it.
00:46:29
I'm not running to throw my money at it, but ah, they've made smart decisions.
00:46:33
They got better in some ways, but they also got worse in other ways, specifically on the defense with Jamal Adams.
00:46:39
I think since I think Sam Donald is still a turnover machine, So when you have a bad defense and you're giving the opposing offense extra chances, 2 to 4 extra chances, every single, every single game, that's going to be really hard.
00:46:53
It's gonna come back to bite.
00:46:54
You leave Ian Bell, you just don't he We've heard questions about him coming out of camp.
00:47:00
We I question his motivation.
00:47:03
Um, you know, I questioned whether he even wants to be with the Jets or not.
00:47:06
I don't know who is gonna be gone from this team First.
00:47:09
Adam Geyser lay beyond Bell.
00:47:10
Probably lay beyond Bell just cause it's easier.
00:47:13
I mean, it's easy to fire head coach to, but it's easy to cut a running back.
00:47:16
Get rid of a running back, doesn't care, but they do have money invested into him.
00:47:20
Um, I just think all around this Jets team is just a big pile of, like, just guys that I don't want.
00:47:29
Like like Sam.
00:47:30
Donna was not that I don't want him, but, like, there's other guys that I'd rather have been saying Donald right now, um, again turnover machine, Like I said.
00:47:38
And if you don't have a stud defense Thio, Thio, try and counter act all those offensive turnovers If you've got a ah, multimillion dollar, whatever it was $13 million year running back.
00:47:51
Who is being Oh, performed by a dinosaur basically in ah, in the backfield like those were just not good sign.
00:48:00
So I'm not high on this Jets team at all.
00:48:03
I think they are going to get beat up within the division alone.
00:48:08
And then again, you got to play the 40 Niners and all the other teams that we've been listing off here.
00:48:13
Uh, keeps.
00:48:14
It's just not a favorable schedule.
00:48:17
I think the Browns match up well with the Jets this year.
00:48:19
Baker Mayfield got his first ever win against the Jets.
00:48:22
I believe the last time that these two teams played, I think that the Browns are gonna beat them as well.
00:48:27
So you just start going on the list and you're like, Man, I find it hard to piece together a seven game win season for this Jets team.
00:48:34
So I'm taking the under, but again minus 1 50 it's not a bet that I love.
00:48:38
Probably avoiding this line as well seems to be a common theme throughout the A F C East years.
00:48:44
Lines that we want to avoid.
00:48:45
But I just don't see them winning seven games.
00:48:49
So looking at odds, shopper right now points but has the over under set at six.
00:48:56
So now we're talking, you get that push at six.
00:48:59
Do you think it's more likely they went seven games or five games? Man, it seems like they should be better then of five and 11 team, right? But I got to say five games like they're not good enough to go seven and nine in my In my opinion, unless they steal a game a couple games within their division, which is going to be tough.
00:49:21
I mean, the Patriots that Bill Belichick, Belichick has the Jets number.
00:49:26
No matter.
00:49:27
You know, that could be starting a high school quarterback.
00:49:29
And I think he's gonna beat the Jets.
00:49:31
So if they can't steal any games inside their division and then there Ah, tough of division and out of conference schedules schedule.
00:49:41
I just think they're more likely to win five games than they are seven.
00:49:46
I wouldn't take the I like the six a lot more with the potential of a push instead of 6.5.
00:49:52
But if you're taking the under, I guess I would rather have the 6.5.
00:49:55
It gives you an extra half a game to work with, Um, so I would probably stick with 6.
00:50:00
5 line if you're gonna lay this.
00:50:03
What is the payout, though Attached to that six line is it still won 50 on the over on the under under plus 1.
00:50:13
20. Oh, ****.
00:50:15
So that's so that's That's pretty scrumptious, actually.
00:50:18
So then, knowing that I might roll with the under six plus 1 20 potential of a push.
00:50:25
But, man, if they do go under, that's a significant swing.
00:50:30
A big time payout compared to minus 1 50.
00:50:34
Yeah.
00:50:36
Yeah, you're right.
00:50:38
I don't know.
00:50:40
I just feel like Adam Gates could do some stupid and somehow win seven games again.
00:50:45
I don't know.
00:50:46
He just seems like the guy is going to do just enough to keep his job, but not enough to get fired.
00:50:52
And people are frustrated by that in and of itself often, I don't know.
00:50:58
We'll see again.
00:50:59
It's a lie.
00:51:00
I don't want to stay away from the only line of this division.
00:51:02
I feel good about the bills, and I feel very good about it.
00:51:07
Yeah, me as well.
00:51:08
What? I mean, if you just if you just look over their schedule like they did not have a favorable schedule, they play.
00:51:16
They start off with the bills, bills should take care of business.
00:51:19
Then you got the 40 Niners and the colts who I know you're high on the Colts, you could be starting off easily.
00:51:24
Oh, and three.
00:51:26
And then you're gonna have to, you know, climb out of a hole.
00:51:28
As as you face teams like the Cardinals Chiefs, the Patriots.
00:51:35
Who knows what the Raiders are gonna be.
00:51:36
The Seahawks, the Rams and the Browns and the Patriots.
00:51:39
I mean, that's a brutal final four weeks to your schedule.
00:51:43
Seahawks Rams, Brown's Patriots.
00:51:46
So if you starting off on three and then you assume they go maybe Owen four down the stretch, they're gonna have to pick up seven wins.
00:51:54
It knows what's in those 10 games in the middle in order to cash in over bed.
00:51:58
That's that's a big ask.
00:52:02
Yeah.
00:52:03
So let's think back on the entire NFL.
00:52:07
Can you give your top three win total bets? I think mine would be Seahawks over.
00:52:15
Giants under bills.
00:52:17
Over.
00:52:18
Yeah, I've got I've got them all.
00:52:22
I got them all written out.
00:52:26
Uh, at least ideas.
00:52:28
OK, I gotta find that sheet cause I'm driving Iowa tomorrow to place on my bet.
00:52:33
So I've got them all written out somewhere.
00:52:36
Ah, here, this is Take a screenshot, everybody.
00:52:42
It's free money for, So I think the number my favorite overall.
00:52:47
But is the Giants under six? Unfortunately, the line has moved from one of minus 106 to minus 1 10.
00:52:55
Big what? Really, in the grand scheme of things, I was loving that 106 number, though essentially even money for a Giants team that is absolutely not going to win more than six games, that's probably my favorite.
00:53:05
But then I have a few bets that are kind of kind of tied for ones that I that I like a lot.
00:53:12
But they're not like my super favorite in the Cowboys over 9.
00:53:16
5 and the Saints over 10.
00:53:21
5 Cowboys come with a minus 1 50 payout.
00:53:25
Saints come with a minus 106 Payout.
00:53:28
Saints Air at 10.5.
00:53:29
It's a questionable line for a lot of people.
00:53:31
I still think they're going to go over my other two Favorite bets outside of the Giants are our beloved Packers over 8.
00:53:37
5 minus 1 37.
00:53:40
I just don't see the Packers losing six additional games this year.
00:53:43
All they have to do is go nine and seven.
00:53:45
I haven't looked this up, but I don't think the pay The Packers have gone 88 more than one time in the last dozen years, Like at least since Aaron Rodgers.
00:53:55
First year.
00:53:56
Um, I I don't see them going 18 8 again.
00:53:59
Don't quote me on that.
00:54:00
I could be wrong.
00:54:01
I haven't looked at the records, but they're not going 88 this year.
00:54:03
Packers over 8.
00:54:04
5 and then, AH, Seahawks over 9.5.
00:54:10
Just the disrespectful line is that, and I have talked about the Seahawks win.
00:54:15
Russell Wilson wins.
00:54:16
They should win at least 10 games this year, and you're getting a plus 1 10 payout.
00:54:22
So to answer your question, I also do kind of like the Bangles over 5.
00:54:25
5 minus 1. 34.
00:54:28
That's gonna be a small bet, though, So if you're asking me top three, I'm going.
00:54:32
Giants under six, Seahawks over 9.
00:54:35
5 and Cowboys over 9.5.
00:54:39
I think the bills would be just just outside that as an honorable mention.
00:54:45
Ah, with their line as well, which we just went over with.
00:54:50
Their line is half 8.5.
00:54:53
Yeah, so they're my honorable mention, but I would roll with the Giants, Cowboys and Packers.
00:54:59
If you're trying to narrow these bats down here, that's fair.
00:55:05
And I think we didn't cover.
00:55:07
You know, it's entirely pretty well and I feel good about him.
00:55:11
I feel good about the ones, he said, For whatever it's worth under Aaron Rodgers, I guess while he's been in the league, they went 87 and 1 2013 and then now you're talking about injuries to him.
00:55:24
But they went 7 to 9 2017 69 and 1 2018.
00:55:28
But yeah, and those, Yeah, both for the, you know, the off years, the odd years.
00:55:32
So, um, and with Aaron Rodgers healthy and again, Matt LaFleur has maybe over achieved, um in his first couple of years as a head coach.
00:55:42
But, uh, he, I don't think is going Teoh.
00:55:47
I don't think it's gonna put in eight and a team on the field.
00:55:49
I think Aaron Rodgers has so many things to motivate him this year, and I think the talent that they went 13 and three with last year is, you know, on on par with the talent that they've got this year.
00:56:01
Obviously, Um, no first round draft pick to work with.
00:56:05
To be beneficial out there.
00:56:07
Could have.
00:56:08
Could have had somebody to help our Rogers on the line.
00:56:10
Could have had an offensive weapon.
00:56:12
Could have had his defense of stud, but no, we go with a below average quarterback from a small school.
00:56:18
Um, you know, I die aggress on that, but my whole point is you win 13 games with this team last year.
00:56:25
I just don't see you coming out and putting up in 88 season this year.
00:56:29
I think I think the division is more favorable this year for the Packers.
00:56:35
I think the Vikings have taken a step back.
00:56:37
I think the bears are going to be the Bears.
00:56:39
And the Packers know how to beat the Bears and the lions.
00:56:44
I'm in the camp of men.
00:56:45
The lines you've got to start.
00:56:47
You gotta put a season together before I'm gonna start putting any respect on your name.
00:56:50
Like I like Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay is gonna have a big year for fantasy, obviously, But as a team as a whole, you can't tell me that the packers air scared of this Lions team at all, so I think that they're fine in division.
00:57:03
Even if you dropped two games in the division, your already over halfway to cashing this over Bette M 8.5.
00:57:10
So, uh, just doesn't it doesn't make much sense to me.
00:57:13
Why the Linus so low? I would have thought it would be in, like the 9.
00:57:17
5 range.
00:57:19
But obviously oddsmakers everybody else a lot lower on the Packers this year than I am, and that's not even secured is the Packers as a Packers fan? I mean, there's almost no team that I would look at and and say They're gonna go 18 8 after a 13 and three NFC Championship run type season.
00:57:36
Unless you lose your quarterback, you lose your you know, your studs on offense.
00:57:40
You trade away players on defense.
00:57:42
Then maybe we might be talking 18 8.
00:57:44
But the Packers did none of those things.
00:57:45
So, uh, roll with the Packers.
00:57:48
I'm I'm pretty confident on that one, and I believe, just to reiterate, I said, the Giants, Cowboys and Packers, my favorite three bets are actually the Cowboys, Packers and Saints.
00:57:59
I do love the Cowboys as well, but just a bit more juice on the Cowboys.
00:58:04
Which is why I'm putting them a rung lower so that the Cowboys and the Bills as honorable mentions outside the Dock three.
00:58:12
And I like all those.
00:58:14
I just like Seahawks more just because, as do I, yeah, si ox, I I believe in Russell Wilson.
00:58:21
But to your point about the Packers, one of the games that was scary was this week.
00:58:25
One matchup against the Vikings, right? And you and I are both pretty confident they're going to take it.
00:58:30
So I mean, there's one win in the division already.
00:58:34
Honest, I think Lions have no chance to win the division, but I think they're the scariest team for the Packers. Head to head.
00:58:41
I think Lions, for sure, win one game against us, maybe two.
00:58:46
But even with that, we should go.
00:58:49
It may at least historically, to go like the Lions for summaries and have been able to beat the Packers and years that they shouldn't like when they came into Lambeau, I think was it during the Packers? Ah, it was a few years back when the Packers went like 12 and four had another phenomenal season and the Lions came in and one and Lambeau, for the first time since, like 1992 or 99 or something crazy like that, and they absolutely should not have won that game.
00:59:16
But they always find a way.
00:59:18
Eso But again, just as a whole.
00:59:21
The Lions really don't scare me.
00:59:23
They don't impress me as a team, either.
00:59:25
Um, Adrian Peterson being there now, it doesn't really do anything for me.
00:59:29
And again, even if the Packers dropped two games in the division that that means they're still based.
00:59:35
The 14 games and all you got to do is win nine games to cash this to cash this.
00:59:40
Ah, but so you take care of business in the division, as they always have as they should.
00:59:46
You're already halfway to cashing.
00:59:47
You've got another 10 games to sit back and relax, and you and you only need to win five of those.
00:59:53
I think it's a pretty easy bet for me.
00:59:56
I was trying to look up Stafford's record against Packers.
01:00:00
For some reason, this isn't Lemming search.
01:00:01
Very well.
01:00:03
Um, I know Stafford's killed the Packers.
01:00:08
He lost the last game by one point.
01:00:11
Time before that, he beat him in Lambeau one the time before that one.
01:00:16
The time before that one, the time before that Lost Lost.
01:00:23
So he won four games in a row before the one point lost last season.
01:00:27
But it just comes down to Mitt.
01:00:29
Had to had matchups. J.
01:00:32
Alexander can cover big wide receivers.
01:00:34
And I mean, that's all they're gonna do if they're just gonna jack up to Kenny Golladay.
01:00:39
But yeah, even so, one, maybe two losses against that.
01:00:44
Detroit's not gonna kill him.
01:00:46
Good bets.
01:00:48
We just made people rich, I think.
01:00:51
Uh, yeah, Saturday we might be back to talk.
01:00:55
Week one talk about how many panels there should be.
01:00:59
Ah, prop of how many penalties each game should have because I would bet the over in each one.
01:01:04
That's funny.
01:01:05
You should just go through and make those try and sell the lines to smocks, some books or something.
01:01:09
Smog makers.
01:01:11
I might try.
01:01:12
I might try just a couple of other I'll just throw a couple of their pets that I'm gonna be placing tomorrow.
01:01:18
I don't know if you want to do like a stream of overall favorite NFL bets or not, But I mean pretty much covered Mark from here.
01:01:25
I've got Bills a small at to win the A F C East.
01:01:28
I guess I overhyped that line.
01:01:30
Earlier, I thought it was in the two hundreds.
01:01:32
It's actually only plus 1 20 bills to win the A F C East.
01:01:35
Um, I've got the Packers winning the NFC North for a small bet plus 1 80.
01:01:41
NFC East winner.
01:01:42
The Cowboys are only minus 1 21.
01:01:45
Obviously, Ah, the only team that brought it probably gonna have to worry about is the Eagles.
01:01:49
I think they take care of business against the Eagles and win that division.
01:01:53
A minus 1 21 is a good line up on the Cowboys to win the NFC East.
01:01:59
I've got the A F C South winners, as this might not make any sense because I've been dumping on them for Ah, you know, months now, really, is the Texans the only reason I'm putting a very small amount on the Texas? The win is because I think that they match up halfway decently with the Titans.
01:02:18
I think the Titans it over a bit of overachievers last year.
01:02:22
I think the Texans have just as much of a shot in that division of anyone else and they're paying out. Plus 3 50.
01:02:28
I'm gonna probably just throw like 10 bucks at it. If I win.
01:02:31
Cool.
01:02:32
That's 35 bucks, if not, whatever it was $10.
01:02:34
Another one that I really like is the tokens to make the playoffs plus 2 20.
01:02:41
Yeah, that's not bad.
01:02:43
I took a bet.
01:02:44
If they stay healthy, I think they do make the playoffs.
01:02:46
So she wouldn't an extra spot.
01:02:48
They might squeak in, and, uh, they don't have to make it any noise in the playoffs.
01:02:52
Even they just got to make it in your cash.
01:02:54
Deployed? Yeah, yeah, like that Before, Like two, maybe 2.
01:03:02
5 months ago, I said, One of my favorite futures was the Bears toe in the NFC North.
01:03:07
They were third best odds.
01:03:09
They were, like, plus to something plus three something.
01:03:12
So I just figured as a value, but they were definitely worth it.
01:03:16
Um, let me pull it up right here.
01:03:18
I've got NFC North.
01:03:20
Chicago Bears are plus 3.
01:03:22
80 at the moment.
01:03:23
Yeah, like they're worth a couple of bucks.
01:03:25
I think, Um, just because I don't think the Vikings can win it, and I don't think Detroit can win it.
01:03:32
So say something happens drastic to the packers like that.
01:03:36
Make the switch to Jordan, love.
01:03:37
And they trade Aaron Rodgers away, maybe.
01:03:40
Ah, ah! Bear squeak.
01:03:42
Unde r the nine and seven Division Tramps.
01:03:45
Could you actually imagine that happening? I It would be such a **** show around here, like you thought The protest for everything else going bad was bad.
01:03:54
People have you writing Green Bay would be up in flames literally.
01:03:59
It's well, it's gonna be bad enough when they actually do.
01:04:03
Whatever happens with Rogers happens, it's gonna be bad enough.
01:04:06
But if they traded him away, its season If disaster loves for loved rookie year.
01:04:13
Oh, my.
01:04:14
Trade him to Dallas, which people hate anyways, but also trade.
01:04:18
I'm to McCarthy down there.
01:04:21
Just a convention behind deck.
01:04:23
Yeah.
01:04:24
Yeah, exactly.
01:04:26
Oh, good.
01:04:28
Yeah. Okay. Well, this is fun.
01:04:30
I'm sure we'll have a show tomorrow if you're going to Iowa.
01:04:33
Are you back for the show? Tomorrow are now.
01:04:35
Well, that's what last stream I had put in the slack that I mean, I'm gonna try and leave in the morning, but it's gonna be six hours in the car.
01:04:42
Plus, I got to create a draftkings account, put on my bets in, probably grab some food somewhere or something.
01:04:47
I'm gonna try and be back for sure, cause I planned on being back by the start of the Chiefs game, but I will hopefully be back for the stream.
01:04:56
If not, I'm gonna try and figure out how to do it on my cell phone.
01:04:59
I don't know if SportsCastr allow Is that or not? You can.
01:05:03
Okay, well, then I I should be able to be on the stream tomorrow night.
01:05:07
Um, but yeah, number one priority tomorrow is I wish I didn't have to drive all the way to to Iowa, but it's just just easier.
01:05:16
I looked into doing it in Illinois, but it's about a horse, a piece.
01:05:18
I'm right in the middle of Wisconsin, so it's about three hours either way.
01:05:22
And Illinois, you gotta go.
01:05:23
You gotta jump through more hoops.
01:05:25
There's a download that you can you can bet through draftkings on this app.
01:05:31
But you're not actually drink like betting on the draft case app, if that makes any sense.
01:05:35
So just get over Iowa, Place These draftkings numbers I've been looking at for weeks now, and hopefully a few months from now I'll be able to go to a nice dinner or something like that.
01:05:47
It's always nice.
01:05:48
It's always good when, like the future is come in, you completely forgot what you place in all of a sudden.
01:05:53
You look at your wallet and let go.
01:05:55
****.
01:05:56
Okay, let's go, Let's go! Yeah! Oh, and your F King says Thea, like I'm creating come for my brother to because they they're offering Chiefs +101 tomorrow night.
01:06:07
So up to $50 bet.
01:06:09
But there's no roll over.
01:06:10
There's no nothing attached to it.
01:06:11
So free 50 bucks.
01:06:13
If anybody's out there and, ah, as draftkings, I mean, it's literally free. $50.
01:06:20
Nobody.
01:06:21
His NFL has ever lost by 102 points, especially not the defending Super Bowl champions.
01:06:26
So every time there is a bit like that, it looks scary for a little bit.
01:06:33
And that makes me worried about this game's outcome because the Pat Mac If he did that with Fanduel with ah colts, it was a cold.
01:06:40
Plus, it's something that had to do with his number is something It was plus like 80 something, I think.
01:06:46
And they were down by, like, 40 something in the first half.
01:06:49
And it was like, If you feel like what the **** at like, this is stupid like, Yeah, that's the worst beetle.
01:06:56
Maybe a little nervous now.
01:06:58
Yeah, well, I mean, 54 like so on.
01:07:01
You know, I tweeted out cause I've still got some money left in my book.
01:07:05
You just cause I was the first book I ever used way back when I started Live Better not live betting sports betting because they were the only one that would take my debit card.
01:07:13
And I've heard many horror stories about, like, trying to cash out with them and whatever.
01:07:17
So I've never tried to CAFO And so I put all my money on two different NHL parlays at the beginning of of the NHL playoffs, and it was like $60 and I won.
01:07:29
So now I'm up to, like, 240 bucks in that my book account again So now I'm just like, uh, whatever.
01:07:35
So anyway, I did take the cost 54 with them.
01:07:39
But, I mean, that's a realistic, say, the Chiefs, I don't know, have the worst game of all time.
01:07:44
You realistically could lose that bet 101 safe.
01:07:49
I would.
01:07:50
I would hope so.
01:07:51
But I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
01:07:53
It's good or not. Tomorrow.
01:07:55
Thursday? Yeah. Tomorrow.
01:07:59
****.
01:08:00
I had so much work to do.
01:08:01
Let's go.
01:08:02
I need to write about eight more betting previous tonight.
01:08:05
Okay, so from us to you have fun making your money.
01:08:10
It'll be on Fleury, too.
01:08:11
But I'm gonna publish just a quick overview of, um, all the best bets, all the lines to avoid that Zach and I ah, referenced and covered over this little Siri's.
01:08:22
I will link the videos back in on that on that article as well to keep an eye out for that on Fleury Sports.
01:08:30
And it should be posted at pick citi dot com.
01:08:35
Good stuff.
01:08:36
Give us the following Here will be live every day during the fantasy season.
01:08:39
Batting fantasy, All that good stuff.
01:08:42
You'll see you guys next time

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