It's Wednesday, September 9th, 2020.
How are you doing? How are you coming off a busy evening fantasy NFL draft, father son league.
And, um, I think we did well.
We had first pick in the draft.
So we course we took Christian McCaffrey.
Of course we did.
And got some other nice pics along the way.
I also got Gardner Minshew who I love on, so hopefully we will take the Father Son league.
This year, our team is shaken.
Bake me and my son shake and bake.
If you ain't first, you last.
If you ain't first you last.
That should be what I talk about in today's movie review Talladega Nights.
But not gonna talk about that because we have something else to talk about.
I did come up with a strategy for the league in order to secure, solidify our or increase our probability for success because it is a father son league on.
Because of the nature of my work that allows me to be up wherever I want to be.
Um, I am, um, in the unusual position of having to do a lot of what would seemingly be a disadvantage in an inconvenience.
A lot of car pooling.
Um, but I have found a place where this can prove to be valuable.
And that is in this father son league use case.
Because now, throughout the year, when I go to make pickups, basketball or whatever, and I go to pick up my son and his friends who are participating in the Father Son League can simply now just say, Hey, dudes, if you want to come back, no problem.
Ah, but you're gonna need to make this and that trade right now, and then you can come in the car, right? That is the luxury and the position that I'm in right now To be able to impose my will on these Children.
Teoh gain unfair advantage with the NFL draft on the team that we have.
So that is something I am very much looking forward to come in the car if you want.
Just give me your top running back and wide receiver.
I will give you something in return.
It will be ****, but you will be able to come home on and you know, dinner at home.
Otherwise you can walk.
That is That's what that's where we're headed.
Looks like Okay, movie talk, something that I have said I need to change because it's not just movie talk.
It shows its streaming episodes.
Today I want to talk about one that is one of my all time favorite shows.
If you haven't seen it, then your idiot.
But you also should take advantage of seeing the Siri's.
The series was called Silicon Valley was on for six years, I think, from 2012 through 2018 I believe something like that.
Ah, great syriza about startup that was failing at every turn. Hysterical.
And in that series, one of my favorite scenes of all time features.
Ah, billionaire investor who is a complete loose cannon.
Uh, just like a complete ass who is now coming into the house where these star of guys are all living to meet them and talk to them.
Um, and here's how the scene goes.
Not tacos there.
This guy Russ, I think this guy to meet this lawyer in his ****ing kids.
Six. And I have a few hours killed.
I see a clinic is not get any attention over there.
Or did I not? It doesn't look at him so And here it comes.
This guy has got this guy because I'm looking at the rest of you guys.
This is the guy.
You know. I'm right.
This guy Ox, What a guy.
What's up? Out data dot Totally kidding.
On defensive attention with humor.
What takes the attention off? Course not.
All right, Russ. Things, guys. A hero.
O e Want to know what kind of ****ed up out of this guy and so there you have it.
You probably want to go watch the show if you haven't.
If you're interested in laughing interested in comedy, I don't know, but probably a good idea.
Okay, let's move on.
Portfolio update. Portfolio update.
Um, we have some updates for you, and they're exciting.
We have a short gold 2050 but we went ahead and we booked profit on our short s and P 500 short s****s position.
We were short from 35 85 from last week, right at the top when people thought we were crazy.
And we have now book profit over 200 points lower over 202 135 points, profit on the S and P 500 short position and that is just increased.
Our returns overall returns significantly, and we've already been up quite a bit.
We will start updating with new portfolio market punks now is going to be running a new portfolio into the end of 2020 2021 where now we're giving access to clients that want access one of allocate to the portfolio.
You can do that now.
You can be in touch, um, and participate in all the fun of the show and hopefully seeing some profits with your money.
If you're interested, then all you have to do is send me a direct message on Twitter to actual Kruger.
You see it pop up throughout the show on gets pretty easy to spell.
Send me a direct message on Twitter.
If you don't use Twitter than go to telegram.
Same thing actual Krugerrand Telegram telegram is free on bond.
You will be able to, you know, reach out to me, and I will keep you informed of all the details and you know what's what's going on. Okay.
Actual. Kruger, right there. You can see.
All right, What else? There was a position that was taken on Tuesday, but it wasn't discussed on the Tuesday show, and then it's already done by the Wednesday show, so there's nothing much to talk about.
But you may have noticed crude oil just collapsing, collapsing on Tuesday under a lot of pressure.
And so we bought some crude oil into that severely violently overextended dip for a short term play.
And then we held it into the clothes and there just wasn't any follow through, like what we were hoping for.
But at the same time, it didn't really drop much more on.
And then it closed up a little bit, a little bit teeny bit in the money s.
So we took a little bit of a team type profit there, but basically it cost until nothing to really talk about.
If it drops again, maybe we'll take it again if it sees another big pullback today.
But, um, that's the story.
There took a shot.
No follow through over the coming hours after we had taken it.
A step aside, that's how you have to do it people.
That's how you have to do it.
Okay, what's the scoop into Wednesday? Well, as Faras currency traders are concerned, the pound is getting a lot of attention getting pounded.
The pound has come under a lot of pressure after recently trading up to his highs of about 1 35 near the 2019 high.
Just shy of that.
The market has come all the way back down back under 1 30 for the first time in a while, and, um, you know, it's under a lot of pressure.
Why is the pound under pressure? While you have confluence confluence of things that are happening, you have, first of all, broad based a resurgence in dollar demand across the board on the flight to safety bid eso that's definitely contributing.
And then you have some country specific risk going on with respect to now renewed concerns as we get closer to deadlines, renewed concerns about no deal.
Brexit um, it's there's a lot of drama there.
I don't think that it's anything to be overly concerned about, like people were concerned back in 2019 and from 2016 to 2019 and don't think that the worries are gonna be like that, but that is shaking things up a little bit.
And then you have added stress associated with grown a virus because there has been an uptick in cases in the U.
K that's led to or leading Teoh the imposing of restrictions, social distancing rules, new kind of limitations on how people can move around in various areas.
And so all these things are not doing a great job to help the pound right now on DSO That's what we're seeing there.
Ah, what else is going on in global markets that we're talking about? Well, there has been escalating tension between China and the US US threatening, um too impose, um, Mawr Ah, kind of bands on, um, on imports of cotton and tomato products now, um, and in response to what they said to be human rights violations, And, um, we also have the issue of talks over fresh stimulus.
Um, talks over fresh stimulus in the U. S.
Stalling on DCA tin ewing to stall.
So that's not good either.
Let's not forget about the fact that Tesla ah, massive, you know, bull market stock was off about 21% on Tuesday in the massive decline in stocks that was a head turner to.
So all of these things are going Not a lot of positives right now as far as those headlines go.
But at the same time, as far as we're concerned with the portfolio, we've managed to capture a massive move.
We think that ultimately the market can go lower and will be continuing to look to sell into rallies.
But we just caught a significant substantial move and nothing wrong with the profit after seeing no, the pain in that trade from 35 85 all the way down to taking profit of 33 50 pretty pretty satisfied.
And we're going to talk about, um, now why it is that we took profit here.
Okay, um and so let's go.
Let's go to the charts, Charts, toe watch.
While the key chart to watch today is the S and P 500 the one that we just book profit.
So you see this? So this is the run up.
Um, you can see the recovery off the march low.
It doesn't go all the way back to march, but It kind of had a big shoot up off the march low, and then we started toe gradually move higher.
If you want to call it gradual for May, and there's a really nice trendline here and the market came down.
You see this trend line here, the support that when the market was coming and testing from May into June and we finally dropped back to the trend line there.
And so if coming into that trend line and a market that's been intensely bullish and bought at every turn, to be buying into that dip seems to make sense, you know, for bulls.
And so we caught a great move to the downside and taking profit around that trendline seems to make sense and what we're gonna do now, the strategy is going to be, too, you know, maybe look to sell into rallies or continue to Of course not.
Maybe, But we will continue to look to sell into rallies for maybe a lower top on, and then a breakdown below this trend line that opens a much deeper acceleration to the downside.
That's what we think could happen.
But we don't know that.
So we're gonna keep selling rallies and we're gonna keep playing that strategy, which has been gorgeous in 2020.
We've made a lot of money doing that, and, you know, we're not gonna be bears.
So right now we took our prophet.
Maybe it goes higher.
All we care about is that if the market looks like it's super extended again, we're going to get on it and we're going to sell it.
And that's what the strategy has been.
And that's what the strategy will continue to be.
As's faras, the S and P 500 goes, so that is where we're playing it.
As far as the positioning goes, you know, we do have that position in gold, and there's there's not really much to show us faras anything exciting updates wise on gold.
Gold has just been in this consolidation.
You can see here we're short from 2050.
We think that this consolidation could ultimately be a bearish consolidation ahead of another drop.
We think that the market could go back down to the 17 60 area 17 65 which is a previous resistance turned support on, so we do think that there's more room for weakness here.
Um, and so we're sitting on a short position that we already made money on.
We had $100 profit from 2050 down to 1950 where we took some off.
But we still have exposure there on.
And so that's the story.
As faras gold goes, I don't think that as much as I think that gold goes higher, medium and longer term, I think the gold still has a lot more room to run.
I think we're in this phase right now over the, you know, coming days and maybe weeks where gold still sees a bit of a pullback.
ITT's a tricky one.
It's a tricky one.
Okay, Um, what else do we want to look at? Um well, I can show you.
I can show you what? What? What happened the other day with the position that we took in? Um, and oil.
So you could just see here. I'll show you quickly.
Here's the oil market.
And here's this massive decline.
This is an hourly chart.
So you could just see that the market dropped all the way down, um, and got his lowest toe towards 36 what we did here is we bought on.
We bought around just just ahead of 37 around 37 15 I believe on, um on Tuesday.
And then the market kind of dipped down, and then it came back up, and then it closed.
Um, you know, I believe into the close.
It was around, you know, just around around these levels here.
Really? Um, and then, um, dropped back down a little bit and then back up blah, blah, blah, no follow through.
Nothing to talk about.
But when you look at this chart, um, you know, it has been taken quite a beating in recent sessions, but, you know, it could still go lower.
On the daily chart, not really any strong opinions.
It was just a shorter term play on the at based on the hourly chart, but that's ah.
Just so you could have a look at what was going on there.
Um what else? Um, I don't think there's anything else to talk about.
Nothing else to talk about.
I'll give you the update because, you know, some of you are like, where is that update? What is he talking about? Well, I'm talking about Bitcoin, um because I know many of you are here to get that update and there's really no change with Bitcoin with the outlook from yesterday to today or really from the past few sessions since we broke down, I have been talking about this possibility that after Bitcoin it broken up off the march low and gotten all the way up above 10,500 which would have been pretty key resistance point here that there was this exposed move towards the 13 800 2019 high and we got up close, but we didn't.
And then we're rolling back over.
And so I think there's every possibility, especially if we see setbacks in equities like we had seen in March on Bitcoin.
Still not yet being immature, you know, store of value assets.
Still kind of an emerging market, emerging technology, having those shorter term correlations with that because it's not yet established that we could see what happened in March again if we see more downside in stocks and that could lead to a move down to the 60,000 area, at which point I would be very aggressively buying Bitcoin.
Eso don't think that I'm saying that I think that the coins gonna fall off a cliff and never come back.
I love it, but I think that right now we can't rule out the possibility that Bitcoin does see some more weakness ahead.
Okay, Much like was seen back in March.
OK, uh, let's move on.
Let's look at charts toe. We just did that, you idiot.
Let's move on and take a look at the sports book.
We have been in a slump with the sports book, but overall, um, the portfolio has done well, we've taken a hit.
We're up about 25%.
We were up as much as 30% in the 2020 portfolio.
But, um, you know that's gonna happen.
They're gonna be periods of loss.
I like, um, it's been a tough go.
You know, it's been a tough go.
Um, you know, who would have thought that Djokovic would have thrown a racket at somebody's neck or hit a ball it somebody's neck? Who would have thought that he was gonna hit a tennis ball at the linesman's neck.
I didn't have that bet.
I would probably paid out good odds, but I didn't have it.
Now if I was smart enough, I probably could have anticipated that because Djokovic is having a terrible year having his Corona virus tournament on getting **** for that.
And so maybe it could have been anticipated that he was going to be frustrated and hit a ball at somebody's neck.
Don't know today's play.
Okay, we have, um, the quarterfinals.
The quarterfinals in U.
I believe it's the quarterfinals, that right, and we have Alex demeanour against Dominic team.
And while these guys have played twice before and I think this is where the road ends for the Australian on and I think that a team beat him again, beat him twice already will beat him again.
Team is probably, I'd say, the best player in the world right now.
Even though his ranks not there.
I think he will secure that ranking.
He's just a tremendously hard worker and I'd say the best player out there right now, so I expect him to win.
Um, then we have a rube love against Medvedev and again this matchup.
Historically as Medvedev dominating, they played three times and Medvedev has won all three matchups.
Okay! And Medvedev is the better player and I just don't see ruble of winning this.
I see Medvedev winning.
And there you have it.
So we have Medvedev to win in the second leg of this combination plate.
Remember? All three after when the third is the the toughest.
You know, you can see here, obviously just a you know, even match up as far as the odds go.
But it is the toughest Azarenka against Mertens.
Okay? We loved Ken in the other day when she was playing Martins and Mertens.
She destroyed her.
She made cannon look like nothing.
Um and Azarenka eyes a good player.
But if Mertens plays the way that she did against Kenan and she just is like a machine Um then I don't think Azarenka that stands a chance Merton served is was was explosive and she just doesn't make any mistakes.
And if she can play the way that she did against Ken and then I see Martin's winning that easily.
So there you have it.
Today's structure play sticking with tennis.
We have team to win Medvedev to him and Mertens to win, and that pays out, actually a really lovely to tow one.
So let's see if we can get that and get back on track.
Risking 100 to win 2 12.
Okay, more than 2 to 1, risking 100 to win, 2 12 for every 100 you risk you went to 12.
Pretty cool, All right, that will do it. That's today's show.
Market. Punks is on Monday to Thursday.
Market punks is on Monday to Thursday.
You can get the show on sub stack at market punks dot sub stack dot com right in your inbox and broken up into tracks because we think that sounds cooler than topic or chapter.
Okay, it shows like an album, and it's broken up into tracks.
And then, if you get in the box, you can just click through the topic that you want to go to the track that you want.
Okay, um, and that's it.
Market punks on Monday to Thursday, so we'll be back on again tomorrow.
That's right, Peace