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00:00:00
Brie Teoh, Thanks to dramatic pause.
00:00:08
It's OK.
00:00:10
It is a dramatic pause.
00:00:18
Boom! There we go.
00:00:19
We are on and we are live.
00:00:21
For those of you that may have already tuned into our earlier Ah, but shorter, broad kit.
00:00:28
Uh, yeah.
00:00:32
Ratings production with me today is Kyle Carol.
00:00:36
You see his Twitter handle their at fantasy reserve.
00:00:39
This show is gonna be exclusively about DFS picking the right players how to build the right process and, uh, excited tohave.
00:00:47
Kara, Mr.
00:00:48
Carroll on board of me here.
00:00:49
It took a few minutes to get, and that's my fault.
00:00:51
Apparently, I'm too old for all this software.
00:00:55
Kyle.
00:00:57
Hey, don't they doing good, Jeff? You know, we're a couple days away from Sub also.
00:01:01
Finally, something that feels familiar with us.
00:01:03
So I'm really excited to get into the DFS today.
00:01:06
Oh, heck, yeah, man.
00:01:07
Is there any game in particular that you're looking forward to? I'm a Broncos fan, and, uh, we we don't play until Monday.
00:01:15
I think we like Pittsburgh.
00:01:17
Um, so, uh, we get to see a lot of drew lock and see if he's anything worth having.
00:01:22
We got a lot of weapons so we'll see.
00:01:26
Well, speaking of Drew, lock and Pittsburgh and all these things you how long you been playing DFS? You got any of these guys targeted this week? I've been playing defense pretty seriously for about this would be going on in my third year.
00:01:37
So I don't know.
00:01:41
I think I'm gonna avoid Denver Broncos for the first it.
00:01:44
So it's a wait and see game.
00:01:45
Honestly, um, there's too much too much to not know there's So I'm gonna make a scene.
00:01:52
They're gonna have to make me regret it.
00:01:53
Basically for not playing him.
00:01:58
Understood? Understood, man.
00:01:59
Well, I appreciate some of that.
00:02:00
I mean, I've been playing DFS now for about four years.
00:02:03
Myself typically only play in the high stakes stuff.
00:02:06
You know, usually I like to get into the Milly maker.
00:02:07
You know, that kind of minimum? $20 buy in and kind of weeds out some of the riff raff sometimes.
00:02:13
Um, yeah.
00:02:15
You know, I like the Random nation.
00:02:16
We'll talk a little about that process soon, but how about you playing like cash games? Get into the Milly maker.
00:02:21
You like Teoh, Divide and conquer.
00:02:22
What's your strategy? Yeah, I kind of like the the same route that you went the big by and really make it contextually the variance of, you know, people throwing in just kind of random lineups because you know it is gambling.
00:02:34
But at the end of the day, there is there is a way to win more often than not, you know, it's kind of like the same in poker, like the best poker players continue to win in the best DFS players continue to win, so you know, there is a lot of luck into it.
00:02:46
But there is a sound strategy, and that's kind of what we're here to discuss today.
00:02:52
Well, speaking of the strategy and in the process, I guess we should start there.
00:02:56
It's kind of step one in the whole DFS game, right? So I mean, I know I start typically with, like, weekly over unders, you know, how about you? Is that kind of, ah, starting jumping off point for you to figure out which games are gonna be the kind of the the fantasy gold, so to speak? Yeah, over unders are definitely important.
00:03:12
Before I even look at him, I'll kind of go through and like, OK, I like these matchups.
00:03:15
All kind of do almost reverse where it's like, Okay, let's look at the bad defense's see if they're playing you need, like good matchups for the often subside and then kind of go through like, Oh, this.
00:03:25
This game has a high over under because, you know, if you have the Ravens, any rating? Last year there was a good chance they were top six and high over unders because that offense put up so many points.
00:03:37
And if they played a bad defense like the Dead Week one last year, you know that that's a smash play.
00:03:43
No Hollywood Brown and Lamar Jackson of marketers went off Week one.
00:03:47
So that's that's kind of the way that I go about it.
00:03:51
Cool.
00:03:52
Fair enough.
00:03:53
Is there any particular games you're eyeballing on the Sunday slate? Talking about the million acres? Specifically, I guess.
00:03:57
And all the Sunday games.
00:03:58
What do you see there? Uh, being fame of the Sea Hawks Falcons game? I know we'll probably get a lot of those players and talk about them.
00:04:06
Um, you seem to be pretty in on that bucks ain't so.
00:04:08
We talked about earlier.
00:04:09
You have to talk me into those.
00:04:10
But I love the Sea Hawks.
00:04:12
Falcons games like Atlanta was pretty battle defense last year, and they somehow got worse.
00:04:18
Like they lost some pretty key players and I didn't see them adding anything.
00:04:22
And as far as Seattle goes, you know it was Seattle.
00:04:26
It was Arizona.
00:04:27
One other team.
00:04:28
I'm Erin at Carolina.
00:04:30
They were terrible against tight ends last year.
00:04:32
Absolutely dreadful.
00:04:34
And then you add in Hayvenhurst Awesome! Who believes 97 vacated targets? He's gonna be a big DFS play.
00:04:40
I think we want and his prices really, really good.
00:04:43
I think it's 4300 over here, like tied in 11.
00:04:47
Great price, man.
00:04:50
All right, well, I mean, I'm looking at this and I'm going.
00:04:52
It's just kind of staring down.
00:04:54
Like where? Over the big one.
00:04:55
Big numbers are right, so I'm looking at Tampa Bay, New Orleans 3 9.5.
00:04:59
Your sea Hawks Falcons games right there, 49.
00:05:01
So I guess those are the two games I would be targeting to, You know, I don't know if I can talk into that Tampa Bay game or not, because a lot of those guys were probably pretty expensive.
00:05:09
They might be more of the pay up guys.
00:05:11
You give me the Godwin's.
00:05:13
The Mike Evans of the Matt Ryan's Um, I might even be willing to buy Brady and keep him unstaffed just because if that often scores a bunch of points, it gives me exposure to the receivers.
00:05:25
And then I can play the other side and go ahead and take Julio and Ridley if I want to go on the other side.
00:05:29
And then I points going on both ends of the spectrum, Uh, I might run a line up like that just ah, you know, kind of have something different out there.
00:05:38
But any games you're avoiding, you see anything out there where you're like, you know, just hard, pump those breaks and stay away.
00:05:45
There's a couple, uh, you know, the Jets Bills game has a very low over under, although there are some pieces that I like in that game, which it was just kind of ironic, right? Like those are the games you kind of want to avoid.
00:05:57
But, you know, Josh Allen's at a decent price.
00:06:00
You know, James and Crowder.
00:06:01
There's Chris turned, and there's almost no one there.
00:06:04
Someone has to catch the ball.
00:06:06
You know, James and Crowder may end up with 112 catches this year for like 800 yards, but But India says it's great because that gives you that, say, floor.
00:06:15
And I think he's priced it like 5200, which is a pretty good price.
00:06:18
So, you know, there's not one game particular where I'm like, Oh, I'm not playing anyone in this matchup.
00:06:25
But there is definitely a couple that I'm maybe only taking one or two pieces in and then just kind of letting my line up, you know, filling with the rest of these high scoring games.
00:06:37
Gotcha.
00:06:38
So a lot of times, I mean and I might be on an island here.
00:06:41
But on a low scoring game, I like to kind of use those is almost like my target defense's.
00:06:46
I'll try and find that low over under him, like you know what? This game is supposed to not score any points.
00:06:50
Let me take one of those defense's and, uh, you know, if the offenses were that bad, maybe there's a few turnovers.
00:06:57
Maybe, you know, low up, put on scoring is gonna give me a few more points when it's said and done, you know? So I know it's like the look at the defense's.
00:07:04
So it's usually those middling games if you see games between safe 46 a half half and 44 in terms of that over under and probably not even touching those players unless they have an outlier.
00:07:15
But, man, you get under that.
00:07:16
Parker, go ahead and give me the defense.
00:07:19
I'll give it, take a shot on it, you know? Or if a defense has, like, a couple of freaks guys on that might take a flyer.
00:07:25
Heck, I have two lineups right now in the milling maker.
00:07:27
Where I ran with Washington is my defense was a full pun.
00:07:30
Where is the minimum defense? I've done the same thing.
00:07:35
They're gonna allow some points.
00:07:37
The Philadelphia we know that, But man Chase Young is an absolute monster, and he's gonna be going against old man Jason Peters.
00:07:43
They're coming off the edge, and it's an interesting matchup because I really think Young's a freak athlete and he could be a difference maker for that whole defensive line But it's always interesting to find that the high and the low there and help fill your rostrum with that one in the middle.
00:07:57
Just kind of, Well, they're just that they can keep you in the middle, right? It's like if you want a cash flying, your kind of barely in there.
00:08:04
Yeah, you're playing those middling games if you want.
00:08:06
When you want to win big, let's go and get after the high over under totals.
00:08:09
Maybe your defense is you're sticking with lows.
00:08:11
Or if you have an elite defense, you have to play, you know, then we'll go ahead and go from there.
00:08:16
So what? Like Volumen matchup? So how much do you weigh out? Volume versus match up.
00:08:22
Maybe you get a running back who, you know, gets 20 touches.
00:08:24
But, man, he's going against the number one defense.
00:08:27
Like, Where's your how do you wait? Yeah, I think ultimately it comes down to.
00:08:33
Is this guy just a good player? Not like it comes down to talent like labeling.
00:08:36
Bill is a good one, right? We just talked about him.
00:08:38
He plays Buffalo, and they are the number one price defense in Week one they're priced at 3700, while it's not a lot.
00:08:45
I mean, you need that extra 2 $300 you're gonna be sacrificing it there and split on those kind of a guy where he's gonna get a lot of volume.
00:08:53
But is it is any of it valuable for what you're paying? And I can't remember off the top, my head what is priced at.
00:08:57
But I'm pretty sure he's a top, you know, 8.
00:09:00
12.
00:09:01
Running back is where he's gonna be.
00:09:02
And so, at the end of the day, you have to weigh it.
00:09:05
Is this running back good enough to out perform his cir***stances and lady on Bell in Pittsburgh? Yeah, maybe later on Bell in New York.
00:09:14
Probably not so much.
00:09:16
Um, Christian McCaffrey.
00:09:17
Oh, yeah, You play him, no matter what Dalvin cook.
00:09:20
You know, those are the guys that you're like, no matter who they play down.
00:09:23
When cooking in Scream Bay doesn't feel like a very good matchup.
00:09:26
Horst Green Bay last year, piquant.
00:09:29
Are we to that when they played absolutely torched him.
00:09:31
So that's where it's kind of a judgment call.
00:09:34
So guys that I've kind of avoiding which we'll get to later in the bus segment.
00:09:38
Guys like Lay beyond Bell.
00:09:39
That's that's kind of where I'm at with him.
00:09:42
Just kind of avoiding him in this matchup.
00:09:46
How do you feel about a guy like Jonathan Taylor? I mean, you don't talk about week one flop in the nuts for a match up.
00:09:51
I mean, this guy's got Jacksonville, and I think you and I were actually called the play on their defensive line this week on I only 80.
00:09:58
So I don't know how I'm gonna do in there, but, uh, there's ah, Jonathan Taylor.
00:10:04
Looks like you know the truth.
00:10:05
And that offensive line is no job.
00:10:07
You got some road graders, you know, time shared.
00:10:10
Be ****ed.
00:10:11
Marlon Mack.
00:10:12
Jonathan Taylor.
00:10:13
I don't care who it is.
00:10:14
They're probably all running over that defense, right? Yeah.
00:10:16
You know, it's actually funny that, um I'm actually looking up.
00:10:18
I misspoke on lady on Bellies actually price pretty low where he's almost a value, but he's right next to Jonathan Taylor.
00:10:24
You know Jonathan Taylor's press it 57 hundreds, which is you know, when you're looking at draftkings, the average salary I have it right here is $5506.
00:10:37
So he's right there at the league average.
00:10:39
So you you would assume that he's a value play against a bad defense, but you're gonna have to almost pay up for him.
00:10:45
Where is he going to be in the time share with Marlon Mack? Is he going? He's going to lose catches, and I and Heinz, we already seen that.
00:10:51
There's already camp reports that he's not catching the ball well.
00:10:54
So I know I'm gonna throw Jonathan Taylor in a couple of my DFS lineups because the town is too good and the defense is too bad to not try it.
00:11:04
Um, but this may be a thing where maybe you even put in Marlon Mack is many times you're putting in Jonathan Taylor India lineups because Marlon Mack is 100% going to get that first carry.
00:11:17
And if he rips off a couple of big ones on the first drive, you know, there he could end up with 40 rushing yards and a touchdown on the first drive alone, and I wouldn't be surprised.
00:11:26
Well, I really enjoyed Marlon Mack last year.
00:11:28
I had him on a few rosters, and he helped along the way throughout the course in season.
00:11:31
But I'm about to go get myself a Jonathan Taylor build a bear because I worked one.
00:11:36
Hold him all day.
00:11:40
So many leagues right now.
00:11:41
Yeah, you know what you're doing when the draft go by Jonathan Taylor.
00:11:46
Like if he comes out Week one.
00:11:47
And he has, like, you know, if he has, like, 50 yards in a catch and doesn't score a touchdown, go by Jonathan Taylor because by week four or five, he's just going to tear up the leak a lot like Miles Sanders did last year.
00:11:58
You just got to get over that veteran presence that, for some reason, coaches feel the need to put the veteran out there super weird.
00:12:07
Sure understood.
00:12:08
So you know, as we talk about kind of that process, we talked about the other high scores, low scores, getting after the different games and what those point totals look like.
00:12:16
You know, we picked up a few matchups, you know, we kind of look at the bad defense is we're looking at volume now.
00:12:22
There's a few guys that we know they get volume but we know we're gonna have to paid for them.
00:12:28
Also.
00:12:29
Where's your cut off when you talk about guys like Mr McCaffrey, a 19,200, whatever to seize New York this week.
00:12:37
But he's obviously the most expensive guy on the board.
00:12:39
Or Ezekiel Elliott or some of these dudes were weekend week out, you know they're gonna get theirs.
00:12:44
But you also know that price point is bananas out of control.
00:12:48
How do you balance that out? Yeah, So it again, it totally comes down to match up.
00:12:54
So you look at, um, Chris McCaffrey, who is insanely priced at $10,000.
00:13:01
He is probably still worth it.
00:13:03
Amuses playing in Las Vegas.
00:13:05
They have a, you know, ascending defense.
00:13:07
It's really young.
00:13:09
You have to realize that when you're paying for these top tier guys, it's almost like, Look, everyone wants them on their team.
00:13:18
And so it almost matters more of who you pair him with versus how much you're actually paying for the guy.
00:13:24
Because Christian can free last year like 93% of games, he was like a top 78 running bag.
00:13:30
So I mean, he's so he's worth India fest if you pair him with someone like Lady on Bell, right? Who? We just talked about 5600.
00:13:39
That's too much to spend on your running backs.
00:13:41
You're spending a lot of money and running backs, and the statistics show that wide receivers are more likely to hey up on their finishes and what they're worth and their payments versus what a running back does.
00:13:54
And so when you're paying for these, these guys like Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas you know Lamar Jackson is 1100 more than Russell Wilson at the quarterback to when you do these things, you have to pair them with low cost, high floor guys like Antonio Gibson, the Sean Jackson.
00:14:12
These guys we're going to talk about here in a minute that are very cheap.
00:14:16
You need to be able to pair them with this because you want Christian.
00:14:18
McCaffrey's points is gonna get you probably seven catches Week one like I'd be very like if he doesn't have, like, at least five catches Week one, I would be totally surprised.
00:14:28
Well, I guess I've been thinking out of processing into more have we build the lineup rails.
00:14:33
Talk about construction a little bit that so I know what I'm looking at it.
00:14:36
And I don't know how true this is for everybody else.
00:14:39
But I'm always trying to figure out, like, what's my actual r a y? If a player's $5000 how am I gonna go ahead and take that five grand and turn it into a minimum of 20 points? How do I make four axes a minimum? Because if I can hit four or six X on that price point, I feel like I want I'm coming out ahead of Bad way and that guy really is a home run.
00:15:01
And then if I just go ahead and break even or hit three acts on more expensive player, you know, I'm talking about not hitting just the cash like I'm warming three or $4 but I'm making a few 100 a few grand or even in contention for the big money.
00:15:16
And and that's obviously where why we're all here and white. That's where we want to be.
00:15:19
So when you talk about big returns on low salary, you mentioned a few guys take me through like Antonio Gibson.
00:15:26
What makes you feel like he's a guy to go after right now in Week one.
00:15:30
Well, it's unfortunate because, you know, I put out an article a couple days ago and it was like, OK, like Antonio Gibson to Sean Jackson before the jail in regular injury.
00:15:38
I'm like, These are guys that are low priced.
00:15:40
You need the upside when you're when you're playing this low, the touches almost.
00:15:46
I won't say they don't matter, but you're not going to get a guy at $4000 that's gonna touch the ball 20 times a game.
00:15:52
Now Antonio gives him might like his situation is completely turned around.
00:15:56
He's probably going to be almost a person to avoid at this point, depending on the rest your lineup, because he is going to probably be the top five highly most owned running backs of Week one or flex place because those prices are way too good.
00:16:12
Um, but, you know, you talk about these guys you need, you need the boom place, which is what you need.
00:16:19
And so when you talk about two Sean Jackson, go look at every week, one game for the last five years.
00:16:23
The do just puts up massive numbers.
00:16:26
It's the dish on Jackson rule.
00:16:27
Basically, if you haven't heard of it before, you have to blame.
00:16:30
Weak on your required is gonna get you.
00:16:33
You know, the 44 x points.
00:16:35
Basically which talk cost, I think 4900.
00:16:38
He's probably gonna get you 20 points until in your Gibson's.
00:16:41
Another guy that it he's going to get the big plate touches.
00:16:45
He may not get all the rushing attempts, but he's qualifying as a running back, and it's probably going to get 67 targets.
00:16:52
And only one of those needs to break off for a 50 yard touchdown, which he watches calling for cults production.
00:16:57
The average, like 11 yards of risk are Russia.
00:17:00
Attempted was insane, like he was just very efficient.
00:17:03
So those are the guys that you kind of need, other ones that we can kind of talk about the low costs opportunity plays like Chris turned him.
00:17:12
You know, the guy that disappeared last year from injury.
00:17:16
He's another one that's super athletic can do what he needs to do with minimum targets in minimum volume.
00:17:23
Those are the guys you want and then another big one that's really getting high training your new to fantasy this year.
00:17:29
You kind of see his name floating around is Brian Edwards.
00:17:31
Super freak athlete fell in the third round because of injury from coming out of college.
00:17:37
And Antonio Brown is not a Raider.
00:17:40
It's so they've been trying to find these players to come in.
00:17:44
And Tyrone Williams, you know, he's just a burner, but he's on.
00:17:48
I think he's on IR now with a torn labrum.
00:17:50
The the got rugs now, Yeah, he's done Henry rugs.
00:17:55
You know, I don't I didn't really like the selection for the Raiders.
00:17:58
I don't know what they're trying to do.
00:17:59
I don't really know what his role is going to be.
00:18:02
Hunter Renfroe is there.
00:18:03
He's gonna be the underneath guy.
00:18:04
Darren Waller is just to tie it in.
00:18:05
So you know, Brian Edwards is a guy that I think he's like 63 to 15.
00:18:09
He's the guy that you want to take the shot on at 40 having down here for 4200.
00:18:16
That price if he catches one touchdown, six receptions, 60 yards and a touchdown there. There you go.
00:18:22
But congratulations like you just you just got your four x right there.
00:18:26
And so those are the guys that you're looking for, the low can still produce with low volume, and that's that's what these guys kind of represent down here. Cool.
00:18:36
So let's shoot through a couple of those a little deeper.
00:18:38
So you mentioned Chris Herndon.
00:18:39
I actually thought they hid him wherever.
00:18:41
Jimmy Hoffa is sometimes lacking things, guy disappeared.
00:18:46
Evaporated? Yeah, he was hurt.
00:18:49
You know how much confidence should we have in a Jets offense run by Adam? Gays Who? But frankly, without Peyton Manning, this guys basically the dunce of the class, right? Like what's happening in New York? Me.
00:19:00
Can we trust this thing when you're talking about true confidence? Probably none like you shouldn't have confidence when you're playing these players.
00:19:06
But I trust in the athletes.
00:19:09
Adam Gates aside, these athletes, they go to different situations.
00:19:13
Kenyan Drake.
00:19:14
While he looks great, Adam Casely.
00:19:16
It's Miami.
00:19:17
Devante Parker blows up, you know.
00:19:18
So I still believe in these athletes that they can have these below up games.
00:19:22
And when you're talking about Chris Turner and he's 3300 3300 like George Kittel, who I still think is almost worth the play at 7 200.
00:19:30
That's your cutting a salary and a half.
00:19:33
You throw Antonio Gibson in at 4000, you throw to Sean Jackson, and at 4900, you can then afford the CME sees that you want to put in.
00:19:40
You're a big fan of Lamar Jackson.
00:19:41
You can you can afford a throw him in your lineup, you know? So that's why my family, these guys, because if you go back to look at his rookie season, there's some stand out there that the statistics that he put up on Lee five tight ends have done, and they're all basically all Famers.
00:19:54
Of course, there's some staff that just pull out of the air, but shows the athletic profile that you shows athletic profile, that when given the opportunity, he's great.
00:20:06
Injuries last year took him away, which is unfortunate.
00:20:08
But, you know, until DF, until DFS content catches up with him, he's just a value play every week.
00:20:15
That's worth going into your lineup.
00:20:18
Fair enough.
00:20:19
So now let's stop Brian Edwards a little bit.
00:20:20
So yeah, I look at a receiver like that.
00:20:22
Were this guy.
00:20:24
He played his college ball.
00:20:25
South Carolina's.
00:20:26
He played in the SEC right? Like this is high caliber talent.
00:20:29
He was there one.
00:20:30
If it hadn't been for injury.
00:20:32
We're talking about a first round pedigree on this kid.
00:20:34
He had an 18 year old breakout age, just a super freak athlete.
00:20:38
He's big, He's fast. He's strong.
00:20:40
Is a giant hands like all these things.
00:20:41
He should be amazing, right? It's still a rookie receiver.
00:20:45
It's still Derek Carr and he's probably gonna draw number one coverage from Dante.
00:20:49
Ah, don t Jackson, Carolina.
00:20:51
See the number one corner there? Yeah, yes, but yeah.
00:20:56
So with all these things stacking up on him drawing number one coverage, do you project him to be able to actually get that? You'd said it was like, five for 60 and touch.
00:21:06
He can Onley Because if you go look at this college tape, he is.
00:21:10
I was a little late to the party on him.
00:21:12
I was like, Oh, yeah, he's a good receiver.
00:21:13
That's fine.
00:21:14
But the more Twitter hype sum up, the more videos I see them and I'm like, OK, man, he's just a man of a man like you, said 18 breakout age.
00:21:23
You're looking this player profiler, that he's just up there upper percentile in almost everything.
00:21:27
He's just a very good athlete, and I'm kind of on the Derrick car train a little bit.
00:21:33
That feels kind of weird to say, but I just think I know it's really it's I know it's weird, especially being a Broncos fan, but I just don't Elway crying right now, Your fault.
00:21:47
I just use half where this offense in the weapons that has it can produce.
00:21:54
You know, you look at his empty No, the Derrick R N V P. Year before.
00:21:58
I think he liked broke his arm, broke his leg or something.
00:22:01
He was going to be the M V p.
00:22:03
Of the year that year.
00:22:04
They went to the playoffs a lot like I kicked in the first round, you know, real quick, but I've seen his ceiling and with his opportunity with his new wide receivers.
00:22:15
I think he can put Brian Edwards in the situation, but Brian and Webbers doesn't have a choice.
00:22:19
He's going out there, but he's going to be on the field.
00:22:23
They're playing, you know.
00:22:24
Carolina Airline has a really good offensive weapons.
00:22:27
Both the defense's air terrible.
00:22:29
I'm actually surprised at the over under is and higher than what it is.
00:22:33
So again, he's a flyer guy.
00:22:34
I wouldn't put him in a lineup with some of these other names that kind of throwing out to break out.
00:22:41
He's more of like a added in with your floor plays.
00:22:44
But if you're gonna put someone like Mark Ingram, Rim, whose 5600 parent with the Brian Edwards someone that's safer, that if he blows up and marking rumors, comes out and gives you 16 17 points, you're gonna be happy that Brian Edwards caught that five for 16 a touchdown.
00:23:00
Fair enough.
00:23:01
So we got a couple of those budget guys out of the way, so we just saved a bunch of money, right? We're probably about 34 grand ahead of the game right now, given the Value place we just punched in.
00:23:11
So who we want pay up for me because it worked that Pam for a quarterback to want Pap there? Do you want to get after running back? What's your general strategy there? I always.
00:23:24
I always enjoyed kind of paying up for the tight end position, which is kind of counter and counter intuitive.
00:23:29
But if there's old matchup, I really like, and right now it's George Kittel, and he's probably gonna be a pretty highly on tight end.
00:23:35
But if he is not the top one or two tight ends of the week, I mean, I don't I don't see a path or he's not.
00:23:42
He's playing Arizona, who was historically bad against tight ends last year.
00:23:46
Yes, they added some defense of pieces that hit the draft pretty hard.
00:23:50
They brought into Bondra Campbell from Atlanta.
00:23:52
Why we say Atlanta so bad that is, keep losing defensive players.
00:23:55
But Debo sandals hurt brain and I, you know, I don't think he's gonna play Week one.
00:24:01
So you're looking at 100 born Trent Taylor.
00:24:05
I mean, those are the guys you're kind of looking at, and, yeah, they're going to run the ball a lot.
00:24:09
But everyone knows they're gonna run the ball.
00:24:10
So I just think the focus is going to be Mawr on Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Jake McKinnon.
00:24:16
If you're finds the field again that those play action passes for George Kittel, I mean, there's a reason that he's so good.
00:24:23
It's the play action pass, and he's just a man of the man.
00:24:25
So once he's just gonna get the opportunity.
00:24:28
Those are the kind of guys that I'm looking for to pay up.
00:24:31
Um and then did you want to throw one more in there? I just don't see how you don't start Lamar Jackson.
00:24:39
Honestly, thank I.
00:24:41
The rushing floors to good.
00:24:43
They're playing Cleveland.
00:24:46
Cleveland's defense has been like, Oh, it's it's ascending.
00:24:48
It's been ascending for like six years now like that.
00:24:50
This is supposed to be a good, good defense in Cleveland for, like, six years in a row, So I don't really see how you know if you're saving, these monies are running backs paid up for Lamar.
00:24:58
But it's fun to watch.
00:24:59
Like if you ever have the more on a team and you need him to do something and you're just rooting for me and tight.
00:25:04
It's so much fun because he never lets he almost never let you down.
00:25:08
Well, I'm actually calling Lamar Dbacks and NBC because he's can't miss TV.
00:25:13
You have to watch him when he's on love, Lamar the tight end.
00:25:19
Things actually kind of interesting because when I look at that, I'm thinking to myself, OK, George Kittel, I'm 40 Niners fan, right? So I love me some.
00:25:26
George, um, you know, I am worried about a guy like Isaiah Simmons.
00:25:31
I want you Isaiah Simmons a race against Travis, said TN, the Clemson running back who is going to be a first rounder next year.
00:25:37
Um, and any Beato he was faster than one of what's allegedly one of the fastest guys in the country's gonna run a sub 44 to combine.
00:25:46
They got him codas a linebacker.
00:25:49
So this guy's gonna be playing Kittel and he can come come off and take him in the slot.
00:25:54
He separated from the, uh from the line.
00:25:56
He can run with him and he's big You 64 Plus, he's 2 25 like I'm actually little concerned about Kittel because of Isaiah Simmons.
00:26:05
That guy's going, he's fast enough, and he covers well enough to run wide receivers.
00:26:10
He's strong enough to play with a tight end.
00:26:12
He I would go ahead and target the Cardinals in the sea.
00:26:15
Chickens? I'm sorry, Seahawks.
00:26:17
Um, every week I didn't hear what side I was playing and I would, yeah, grab those guys every week.
00:26:22
But now I'm looking at those two rosters, and I'm like, No, no, thank you.
00:26:26
That's a hard pass.
00:26:27
I think I'm gonna go ahead, hurt somebody else, maybe like cowboys or something, because their safeties are a little weak.
00:26:34
But in this position, you know, do you ever worry about a rookie like that? Or do you say, Hey, you know what we need to see Improve it before we get too nervous.
00:26:42
That's kind of where I'm at.
00:26:43
Its I need to see them do it.
00:26:45
It's It's a whole new defense, basically, that hole linebacking corps about our new defense tackling and his name's escaping at the moment.
00:26:53
But that whole defense is new, and so I don't with a shortened off season, George kid, old brand new money.
00:26:59
It's just a situation where, you know, maybe later in the season they turn it around.
00:27:03
It's just George freaking Kittel like.
00:27:06
I just you know, there's no situation where I don't want him on my team.
00:27:10
The problem I do have, though, is there is just so many valuable tight ends like Hayvenhurst is a guy that I just keep kind of going back to.
00:27:19
And while he will probably be the most owned 2nd, 3rd, most own tight end when we won the of s you just this just price too good.
00:27:31
You know, I have some of the prices here, Uh, some of the tight ends hating her.
00:27:35
So George Kittel for the kind of the standard 7200, but current and talked about 3318 her 4300, Your guy that I see a lot of s Hawkinson he's 4200.
00:27:49
I mean, so there's a lot of really good values there that I think George Kittel almost becomes underrated and an aspect.
00:27:57
And so that's kind of why I'm like, I'm just gonna take the best tight end that I know is gonna probably put up numbers.
00:28:03
That's their I can dig it, man, that I know in my past, I would usually try to find, like, that pass catching running back.
00:28:10
You know, a guy maybe like a James one or something like that.
00:28:13
But I think target, you know, paying up a tight end or paying up that blacks running back who maybe is like that mid price guy, but he's got a high receiving floor, maybe doesn't get a bunch of carries, but we'll get to the Thai Ah, you know, high value yardage and catch plays that matters.
00:28:29
So when I think about building my roster and construction and I'll be quick and move on to some of the guys we like, today is when I was running backs, I want guys to catch the ball.
00:28:41
And we You and I have spoken about this many a times where run an average run play goes for what, 4.
00:28:45
5 yard right, you know? Yeah, well, look, you don't get points for the carry, right? So must their scoring a touchdown.
00:28:53
We're getting a fraction of a point with each carry, and a lot of these guys get less than 20 carries a game, right? So we really need a few big plays.
00:29:01
However, a reception.
00:29:03
You get a point for a reception or a half point, depending on what kind of you know draftkings or fanduel.
00:29:08
Whatever your preferred method is called a point or a half point for the catch itself.
00:29:13
And if you get eight yards on that kept you now have about a point and a half or so or more for that, that one play, and if that guy gets targeted six or seven times and then carries it six or seven times, suddenly you have a marginally higher forming player.
00:29:30
But he's a lot more efficient if he's catching the ball.
00:29:32
He's got a shot of getting touchdowns and we all want touchdowns, right? So it's just another way to kind of look at it and build the roster out.
00:29:40
You know, I know it's It's Labor Day. It's Monday.
00:29:43
We still have a few days into it for about lineups, and you and I will be back on on Saturday evening at some point here, a private, another late night show.
00:29:50
Teoh actually talk about lineups and show off a few that we have.
00:29:53
But if we're building a lineup right now, you know who are saying two guys that you think A.
00:29:59
These guys were busts their prices way too high.
00:30:02
There's no way that they can be a valid your return value for their price.
00:30:08
So one of them is Nick Chubb, and it's almost for the reason we just talked about that.
00:30:14
The Kerry is not as valuable as the reception.
00:30:18
And so, you know, I think he's a fantastic runner.
00:30:22
The Ravens stocked up on their defense, especially defensive line place Campbell, who is a fantastic pass rusher.
00:30:28
But he's a really good run, started just an all around great defense of linemen.
00:30:32
Derek Wolfe.
00:30:33
My guy came from Denver is just is not a good pass rusher.
00:30:38
He's a great run stuffer, and, you know, we talk about the narrative of Kareem Hunt almost to the point that it gets annoying.
00:30:44
But I just think Kareem Hunt, you know, we talked about it.
00:30:48
You can look at the stats When Cream Hunt came in.
00:30:51
Nick Chubb was not useful in the passing game whatsoever before.
00:30:56
It was actually pretty good.
00:30:58
He I think he was on like a 45 or 50 target pays for the season like it was.
00:31:02
It was really valuable for fantasy.
00:31:04
He was getting you those targets.
00:31:06
Cream home comes in, and I think it's down to like 22 but that's it.
00:31:10
Now you got a new head coach.
00:31:12
We'll see how he decides to divvy up their running back situation.
00:31:15
But I just think when you're looking at his price, which is the running back 8 65 100.
00:31:21
You're kind of almost paying a premium there to hand off the ball 18 times and you hope he gets the touchdown.
00:31:28
You just pray cream.
00:31:29
Hon is not on the field.
00:31:31
I mean, that's really what you're hoping for, man.
00:31:34
One of the guy I kind of see is a bust.
00:31:37
For me.
00:31:38
It's Zehren Jones and it's running backs because I just think running backs, or so Wallace highlight the position, and it's kind of it's weird that I almost became the Aaron Jones truther at some point during the obvious, and I was like avoiding him like all last year.
00:31:53
And then I was like, Oh, he's actually pretty good And then now everyone's fading him and I get in like the third or fourth round like he's still good.
00:32:01
But they play, you know, they play Minnesota.
00:32:05
I just think a G Dylan is probably going to get some of the goal line work and that's kind of why you know he catches the ball.
00:32:11
But I can't trust that situation to work out the way I want him soon.
00:32:15
So he's almost a situation in the Fs from like, I'm gonna wait and see.
00:32:19
Like, if it's a great matchup, I'll do it because I know he's gonna catch the ball.
00:32:22
I don't know if he's gonna catch it enough, and I don't know if he's gonna get the touchdown opportunity, which is kind of the situation.
00:32:29
I marvel waiting this year s well, it looks like the only pass catcher.
00:32:34
Green Bay has those Davante Adams, my man, Jay Stern Burger apparently will not be the number one tight end.
00:32:39
I know.
00:32:40
Hurt my old man Robert.
00:32:42
Tommy in coming, bro.
00:32:44
You forever.
00:32:45
Yeah, you know, I mean, we'll probably see some 12 out there.
00:32:48
We'll get two tight ends because there's not another wide receiver on the rostrum.
00:32:53
Pretty actually tried to call a couple of guys out of retirement like Antonio Freeman and strolling sharp.
00:32:58
That wide receiver for them.
00:33:00
Um, So Okay, so we talked about some values.
00:33:03
We talked about some payoffs.
00:33:04
We got a couple of those busts.
00:33:05
Here's the deal, guys.
00:33:07
This is our first show.
00:33:08
So thanks for joining us.
00:33:09
Want to thank? Looks like Tim A and Messy.
00:33:13
Best for the tips you guys with.
00:33:15
Thank you so much.
00:33:16
We're gonna be back on Saturday night, so keep your eyes open for that.
00:33:20
We're actually going to share a few lineups that we're building for the Milly maker on draft kings.
00:33:24
And we're gonna go through the roster build with you.
00:33:25
We're going to show you what we haven't.
00:33:27
What we're playing, um 2020 from pretty volatile.
00:33:31
There's gonna a lot of guesswork for week one.
00:33:33
So someone's gotta win the million.
00:33:34
Might as well be one of you or Well, hopefully one of us.
00:33:37
Uh, and we'll go ahead and will give me that money at between.
00:33:41
What? 14 investors, 12 viewing and two on you.
00:33:44
Figure it out, right? Yeah.
00:33:49
So guys, find us.
00:33:51
Gridiron ratings dot com Kyle at Fantasy Reserve on Twitter.
00:33:55
I am Jeff Di Matteo.
00:33:56
You can find me at gridiron ratings dot com or at NFL underscore.
00:34:00
Di Matteo d I m a t t e o.
00:34:03
We are thrilled.
00:34:04
Have been here with you.
00:34:06
Feel free to DMX with any questions.
00:34:08
We'll see a saturday, so I mean, I see them
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The Slate - A Gridiron Ratings Production

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Gridiron Ratings @GridrionRatings

Transcript hideup

00:00:00
Brie Teoh, Thanks to dramatic pause.
00:00:08
It's OK.
00:00:10
It is a dramatic pause.
00:00:18
Boom! There we go.
00:00:19
We are on and we are live.
00:00:21
For those of you that may have already tuned into our earlier Ah, but shorter, broad kit.
00:00:28
Uh, yeah.
00:00:32
Ratings production with me today is Kyle Carol.
00:00:36
You see his Twitter handle their at fantasy reserve.
00:00:39
This show is gonna be exclusively about DFS picking the right players how to build the right process and, uh, excited tohave.
00:00:47
Kara, Mr.
00:00:48
Carroll on board of me here.
00:00:49
It took a few minutes to get, and that's my fault.
00:00:51
Apparently, I'm too old for all this software.
00:00:55
Kyle.
00:00:57
Hey, don't they doing good, Jeff? You know, we're a couple days away from Sub also.
00:01:01
Finally, something that feels familiar with us.
00:01:03
So I'm really excited to get into the DFS today.
00:01:06
Oh, heck, yeah, man.
00:01:07
Is there any game in particular that you're looking forward to? I'm a Broncos fan, and, uh, we we don't play until Monday.
00:01:15
I think we like Pittsburgh.
00:01:17
Um, so, uh, we get to see a lot of drew lock and see if he's anything worth having.
00:01:22
We got a lot of weapons so we'll see.
00:01:26
Well, speaking of Drew, lock and Pittsburgh and all these things you how long you been playing DFS? You got any of these guys targeted this week? I've been playing defense pretty seriously for about this would be going on in my third year.
00:01:37
So I don't know.
00:01:41
I think I'm gonna avoid Denver Broncos for the first it.
00:01:44
So it's a wait and see game.
00:01:45
Honestly, um, there's too much too much to not know there's So I'm gonna make a scene.
00:01:52
They're gonna have to make me regret it.
00:01:53
Basically for not playing him.
00:01:58
Understood? Understood, man.
00:01:59
Well, I appreciate some of that.
00:02:00
I mean, I've been playing DFS now for about four years.
00:02:03
Myself typically only play in the high stakes stuff.
00:02:06
You know, usually I like to get into the Milly maker.
00:02:07
You know, that kind of minimum? $20 buy in and kind of weeds out some of the riff raff sometimes.
00:02:13
Um, yeah.
00:02:15
You know, I like the Random nation.
00:02:16
We'll talk a little about that process soon, but how about you playing like cash games? Get into the Milly maker.
00:02:21
You like Teoh, Divide and conquer.
00:02:22
What's your strategy? Yeah, I kind of like the the same route that you went the big by and really make it contextually the variance of, you know, people throwing in just kind of random lineups because you know it is gambling.
00:02:34
But at the end of the day, there is there is a way to win more often than not, you know, it's kind of like the same in poker, like the best poker players continue to win in the best DFS players continue to win, so you know, there is a lot of luck into it.
00:02:46
But there is a sound strategy, and that's kind of what we're here to discuss today.
00:02:52
Well, speaking of the strategy and in the process, I guess we should start there.
00:02:56
It's kind of step one in the whole DFS game, right? So I mean, I know I start typically with, like, weekly over unders, you know, how about you? Is that kind of, ah, starting jumping off point for you to figure out which games are gonna be the kind of the the fantasy gold, so to speak? Yeah, over unders are definitely important.
00:03:12
Before I even look at him, I'll kind of go through and like, OK, I like these matchups.
00:03:15
All kind of do almost reverse where it's like, Okay, let's look at the bad defense's see if they're playing you need, like good matchups for the often subside and then kind of go through like, Oh, this.
00:03:25
This game has a high over under because, you know, if you have the Ravens, any rating? Last year there was a good chance they were top six and high over unders because that offense put up so many points.
00:03:37
And if they played a bad defense like the Dead Week one last year, you know that that's a smash play.
00:03:43
No Hollywood Brown and Lamar Jackson of marketers went off Week one.
00:03:47
So that's that's kind of the way that I go about it.
00:03:51
Cool.
00:03:52
Fair enough.
00:03:53
Is there any particular games you're eyeballing on the Sunday slate? Talking about the million acres? Specifically, I guess.
00:03:57
And all the Sunday games.
00:03:58
What do you see there? Uh, being fame of the Sea Hawks Falcons game? I know we'll probably get a lot of those players and talk about them.
00:04:06
Um, you seem to be pretty in on that bucks ain't so.
00:04:08
We talked about earlier.
00:04:09
You have to talk me into those.
00:04:10
But I love the Sea Hawks.
00:04:12
Falcons games like Atlanta was pretty battle defense last year, and they somehow got worse.
00:04:18
Like they lost some pretty key players and I didn't see them adding anything.
00:04:22
And as far as Seattle goes, you know it was Seattle.
00:04:26
It was Arizona.
00:04:27
One other team.
00:04:28
I'm Erin at Carolina.
00:04:30
They were terrible against tight ends last year.
00:04:32
Absolutely dreadful.
00:04:34
And then you add in Hayvenhurst Awesome! Who believes 97 vacated targets? He's gonna be a big DFS play.
00:04:40
I think we want and his prices really, really good.
00:04:43
I think it's 4300 over here, like tied in 11.
00:04:47
Great price, man.
00:04:50
All right, well, I mean, I'm looking at this and I'm going.
00:04:52
It's just kind of staring down.
00:04:54
Like where? Over the big one.
00:04:55
Big numbers are right, so I'm looking at Tampa Bay, New Orleans 3 9.5.
00:04:59
Your sea Hawks Falcons games right there, 49.
00:05:01
So I guess those are the two games I would be targeting to, You know, I don't know if I can talk into that Tampa Bay game or not, because a lot of those guys were probably pretty expensive.
00:05:09
They might be more of the pay up guys.
00:05:11
You give me the Godwin's.
00:05:13
The Mike Evans of the Matt Ryan's Um, I might even be willing to buy Brady and keep him unstaffed just because if that often scores a bunch of points, it gives me exposure to the receivers.
00:05:25
And then I can play the other side and go ahead and take Julio and Ridley if I want to go on the other side.
00:05:29
And then I points going on both ends of the spectrum, Uh, I might run a line up like that just ah, you know, kind of have something different out there.
00:05:38
But any games you're avoiding, you see anything out there where you're like, you know, just hard, pump those breaks and stay away.
00:05:45
There's a couple, uh, you know, the Jets Bills game has a very low over under, although there are some pieces that I like in that game, which it was just kind of ironic, right? Like those are the games you kind of want to avoid.
00:05:57
But, you know, Josh Allen's at a decent price.
00:06:00
You know, James and Crowder.
00:06:01
There's Chris turned, and there's almost no one there.
00:06:04
Someone has to catch the ball.
00:06:06
You know, James and Crowder may end up with 112 catches this year for like 800 yards, but But India says it's great because that gives you that, say, floor.
00:06:15
And I think he's priced it like 5200, which is a pretty good price.
00:06:18
So, you know, there's not one game particular where I'm like, Oh, I'm not playing anyone in this matchup.
00:06:25
But there is definitely a couple that I'm maybe only taking one or two pieces in and then just kind of letting my line up, you know, filling with the rest of these high scoring games.
00:06:37
Gotcha.
00:06:38
So a lot of times, I mean and I might be on an island here.
00:06:41
But on a low scoring game, I like to kind of use those is almost like my target defense's.
00:06:46
I'll try and find that low over under him, like you know what? This game is supposed to not score any points.
00:06:50
Let me take one of those defense's and, uh, you know, if the offenses were that bad, maybe there's a few turnovers.
00:06:57
Maybe, you know, low up, put on scoring is gonna give me a few more points when it's said and done, you know? So I know it's like the look at the defense's.
00:07:04
So it's usually those middling games if you see games between safe 46 a half half and 44 in terms of that over under and probably not even touching those players unless they have an outlier.
00:07:15
But, man, you get under that.
00:07:16
Parker, go ahead and give me the defense.
00:07:19
I'll give it, take a shot on it, you know? Or if a defense has, like, a couple of freaks guys on that might take a flyer.
00:07:25
Heck, I have two lineups right now in the milling maker.
00:07:27
Where I ran with Washington is my defense was a full pun.
00:07:30
Where is the minimum defense? I've done the same thing.
00:07:35
They're gonna allow some points.
00:07:37
The Philadelphia we know that, But man Chase Young is an absolute monster, and he's gonna be going against old man Jason Peters.
00:07:43
They're coming off the edge, and it's an interesting matchup because I really think Young's a freak athlete and he could be a difference maker for that whole defensive line But it's always interesting to find that the high and the low there and help fill your rostrum with that one in the middle.
00:07:57
Just kind of, Well, they're just that they can keep you in the middle, right? It's like if you want a cash flying, your kind of barely in there.
00:08:04
Yeah, you're playing those middling games if you want.
00:08:06
When you want to win big, let's go and get after the high over under totals.
00:08:09
Maybe your defense is you're sticking with lows.
00:08:11
Or if you have an elite defense, you have to play, you know, then we'll go ahead and go from there.
00:08:16
So what? Like Volumen matchup? So how much do you weigh out? Volume versus match up.
00:08:22
Maybe you get a running back who, you know, gets 20 touches.
00:08:24
But, man, he's going against the number one defense.
00:08:27
Like, Where's your how do you wait? Yeah, I think ultimately it comes down to.
00:08:33
Is this guy just a good player? Not like it comes down to talent like labeling.
00:08:36
Bill is a good one, right? We just talked about him.
00:08:38
He plays Buffalo, and they are the number one price defense in Week one they're priced at 3700, while it's not a lot.
00:08:45
I mean, you need that extra 2 $300 you're gonna be sacrificing it there and split on those kind of a guy where he's gonna get a lot of volume.
00:08:53
But is it is any of it valuable for what you're paying? And I can't remember off the top, my head what is priced at.
00:08:57
But I'm pretty sure he's a top, you know, 8.
00:09:00
12.
00:09:01
Running back is where he's gonna be.
00:09:02
And so, at the end of the day, you have to weigh it.
00:09:05
Is this running back good enough to out perform his cir***stances and lady on Bell in Pittsburgh? Yeah, maybe later on Bell in New York.
00:09:14
Probably not so much.
00:09:16
Um, Christian McCaffrey.
00:09:17
Oh, yeah, You play him, no matter what Dalvin cook.
00:09:20
You know, those are the guys that you're like, no matter who they play down.
00:09:23
When cooking in Scream Bay doesn't feel like a very good matchup.
00:09:26
Horst Green Bay last year, piquant.
00:09:29
Are we to that when they played absolutely torched him.
00:09:31
So that's where it's kind of a judgment call.
00:09:34
So guys that I've kind of avoiding which we'll get to later in the bus segment.
00:09:38
Guys like Lay beyond Bell.
00:09:39
That's that's kind of where I'm at with him.
00:09:42
Just kind of avoiding him in this matchup.
00:09:46
How do you feel about a guy like Jonathan Taylor? I mean, you don't talk about week one flop in the nuts for a match up.
00:09:51
I mean, this guy's got Jacksonville, and I think you and I were actually called the play on their defensive line this week on I only 80.
00:09:58
So I don't know how I'm gonna do in there, but, uh, there's ah, Jonathan Taylor.
00:10:04
Looks like you know the truth.
00:10:05
And that offensive line is no job.
00:10:07
You got some road graders, you know, time shared.
00:10:10
Be ****ed.
00:10:11
Marlon Mack.
00:10:12
Jonathan Taylor.
00:10:13
I don't care who it is.
00:10:14
They're probably all running over that defense, right? Yeah.
00:10:16
You know, it's actually funny that, um I'm actually looking up.
00:10:18
I misspoke on lady on Bellies actually price pretty low where he's almost a value, but he's right next to Jonathan Taylor.
00:10:24
You know Jonathan Taylor's press it 57 hundreds, which is you know, when you're looking at draftkings, the average salary I have it right here is $5506.
00:10:37
So he's right there at the league average.
00:10:39
So you you would assume that he's a value play against a bad defense, but you're gonna have to almost pay up for him.
00:10:45
Where is he going to be in the time share with Marlon Mack? Is he going? He's going to lose catches, and I and Heinz, we already seen that.
00:10:51
There's already camp reports that he's not catching the ball well.
00:10:54
So I know I'm gonna throw Jonathan Taylor in a couple of my DFS lineups because the town is too good and the defense is too bad to not try it.
00:11:04
Um, but this may be a thing where maybe you even put in Marlon Mack is many times you're putting in Jonathan Taylor India lineups because Marlon Mack is 100% going to get that first carry.
00:11:17
And if he rips off a couple of big ones on the first drive, you know, there he could end up with 40 rushing yards and a touchdown on the first drive alone, and I wouldn't be surprised.
00:11:26
Well, I really enjoyed Marlon Mack last year.
00:11:28
I had him on a few rosters, and he helped along the way throughout the course in season.
00:11:31
But I'm about to go get myself a Jonathan Taylor build a bear because I worked one.
00:11:36
Hold him all day.
00:11:40
So many leagues right now.
00:11:41
Yeah, you know what you're doing when the draft go by Jonathan Taylor.
00:11:46
Like if he comes out Week one.
00:11:47
And he has, like, you know, if he has, like, 50 yards in a catch and doesn't score a touchdown, go by Jonathan Taylor because by week four or five, he's just going to tear up the leak a lot like Miles Sanders did last year.
00:11:58
You just got to get over that veteran presence that, for some reason, coaches feel the need to put the veteran out there super weird.
00:12:07
Sure understood.
00:12:08
So you know, as we talk about kind of that process, we talked about the other high scores, low scores, getting after the different games and what those point totals look like.
00:12:16
You know, we picked up a few matchups, you know, we kind of look at the bad defense is we're looking at volume now.
00:12:22
There's a few guys that we know they get volume but we know we're gonna have to paid for them.
00:12:28
Also.
00:12:29
Where's your cut off when you talk about guys like Mr McCaffrey, a 19,200, whatever to seize New York this week.
00:12:37
But he's obviously the most expensive guy on the board.
00:12:39
Or Ezekiel Elliott or some of these dudes were weekend week out, you know they're gonna get theirs.
00:12:44
But you also know that price point is bananas out of control.
00:12:48
How do you balance that out? Yeah, So it again, it totally comes down to match up.
00:12:54
So you look at, um, Chris McCaffrey, who is insanely priced at $10,000.
00:13:01
He is probably still worth it.
00:13:03
Amuses playing in Las Vegas.
00:13:05
They have a, you know, ascending defense.
00:13:07
It's really young.
00:13:09
You have to realize that when you're paying for these top tier guys, it's almost like, Look, everyone wants them on their team.
00:13:18
And so it almost matters more of who you pair him with versus how much you're actually paying for the guy.
00:13:24
Because Christian can free last year like 93% of games, he was like a top 78 running bag.
00:13:30
So I mean, he's so he's worth India fest if you pair him with someone like Lady on Bell, right? Who? We just talked about 5600.
00:13:39
That's too much to spend on your running backs.
00:13:41
You're spending a lot of money and running backs, and the statistics show that wide receivers are more likely to hey up on their finishes and what they're worth and their payments versus what a running back does.
00:13:54
And so when you're paying for these, these guys like Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas you know Lamar Jackson is 1100 more than Russell Wilson at the quarterback to when you do these things, you have to pair them with low cost, high floor guys like Antonio Gibson, the Sean Jackson.
00:14:12
These guys we're going to talk about here in a minute that are very cheap.
00:14:16
You need to be able to pair them with this because you want Christian.
00:14:18
McCaffrey's points is gonna get you probably seven catches Week one like I'd be very like if he doesn't have, like, at least five catches Week one, I would be totally surprised.
00:14:28
Well, I guess I've been thinking out of processing into more have we build the lineup rails.
00:14:33
Talk about construction a little bit that so I know what I'm looking at it.
00:14:36
And I don't know how true this is for everybody else.
00:14:39
But I'm always trying to figure out, like, what's my actual r a y? If a player's $5000 how am I gonna go ahead and take that five grand and turn it into a minimum of 20 points? How do I make four axes a minimum? Because if I can hit four or six X on that price point, I feel like I want I'm coming out ahead of Bad way and that guy really is a home run.
00:15:01
And then if I just go ahead and break even or hit three acts on more expensive player, you know, I'm talking about not hitting just the cash like I'm warming three or $4 but I'm making a few 100 a few grand or even in contention for the big money.
00:15:16
And and that's obviously where why we're all here and white. That's where we want to be.
00:15:19
So when you talk about big returns on low salary, you mentioned a few guys take me through like Antonio Gibson.
00:15:26
What makes you feel like he's a guy to go after right now in Week one.
00:15:30
Well, it's unfortunate because, you know, I put out an article a couple days ago and it was like, OK, like Antonio Gibson to Sean Jackson before the jail in regular injury.
00:15:38
I'm like, These are guys that are low priced.
00:15:40
You need the upside when you're when you're playing this low, the touches almost.
00:15:46
I won't say they don't matter, but you're not going to get a guy at $4000 that's gonna touch the ball 20 times a game.
00:15:52
Now Antonio gives him might like his situation is completely turned around.
00:15:56
He's probably going to be almost a person to avoid at this point, depending on the rest your lineup, because he is going to probably be the top five highly most owned running backs of Week one or flex place because those prices are way too good.
00:16:12
Um, but, you know, you talk about these guys you need, you need the boom place, which is what you need.
00:16:19
And so when you talk about two Sean Jackson, go look at every week, one game for the last five years.
00:16:23
The do just puts up massive numbers.
00:16:26
It's the dish on Jackson rule.
00:16:27
Basically, if you haven't heard of it before, you have to blame.
00:16:30
Weak on your required is gonna get you.
00:16:33
You know, the 44 x points.
00:16:35
Basically which talk cost, I think 4900.
00:16:38
He's probably gonna get you 20 points until in your Gibson's.
00:16:41
Another guy that it he's going to get the big plate touches.
00:16:45
He may not get all the rushing attempts, but he's qualifying as a running back, and it's probably going to get 67 targets.
00:16:52
And only one of those needs to break off for a 50 yard touchdown, which he watches calling for cults production.
00:16:57
The average, like 11 yards of risk are Russia.
00:17:00
Attempted was insane, like he was just very efficient.
00:17:03
So those are the guys that you kind of need, other ones that we can kind of talk about the low costs opportunity plays like Chris turned him.
00:17:12
You know, the guy that disappeared last year from injury.
00:17:16
He's another one that's super athletic can do what he needs to do with minimum targets in minimum volume.
00:17:23
Those are the guys you want and then another big one that's really getting high training your new to fantasy this year.
00:17:29
You kind of see his name floating around is Brian Edwards.
00:17:31
Super freak athlete fell in the third round because of injury from coming out of college.
00:17:37
And Antonio Brown is not a Raider.
00:17:40
It's so they've been trying to find these players to come in.
00:17:44
And Tyrone Williams, you know, he's just a burner, but he's on.
00:17:48
I think he's on IR now with a torn labrum.
00:17:50
The the got rugs now, Yeah, he's done Henry rugs.
00:17:55
You know, I don't I didn't really like the selection for the Raiders.
00:17:58
I don't know what they're trying to do.
00:17:59
I don't really know what his role is going to be.
00:18:02
Hunter Renfroe is there.
00:18:03
He's gonna be the underneath guy.
00:18:04
Darren Waller is just to tie it in.
00:18:05
So you know, Brian Edwards is a guy that I think he's like 63 to 15.
00:18:09
He's the guy that you want to take the shot on at 40 having down here for 4200.
00:18:16
That price if he catches one touchdown, six receptions, 60 yards and a touchdown there. There you go.
00:18:22
But congratulations like you just you just got your four x right there.
00:18:26
And so those are the guys that you're looking for, the low can still produce with low volume, and that's that's what these guys kind of represent down here. Cool.
00:18:36
So let's shoot through a couple of those a little deeper.
00:18:38
So you mentioned Chris Herndon.
00:18:39
I actually thought they hid him wherever.
00:18:41
Jimmy Hoffa is sometimes lacking things, guy disappeared.
00:18:46
Evaporated? Yeah, he was hurt.
00:18:49
You know how much confidence should we have in a Jets offense run by Adam? Gays Who? But frankly, without Peyton Manning, this guys basically the dunce of the class, right? Like what's happening in New York? Me.
00:19:00
Can we trust this thing when you're talking about true confidence? Probably none like you shouldn't have confidence when you're playing these players.
00:19:06
But I trust in the athletes.
00:19:09
Adam Gates aside, these athletes, they go to different situations.
00:19:13
Kenyan Drake.
00:19:14
While he looks great, Adam Casely.
00:19:16
It's Miami.
00:19:17
Devante Parker blows up, you know.
00:19:18
So I still believe in these athletes that they can have these below up games.
00:19:22
And when you're talking about Chris Turner and he's 3300 3300 like George Kittel, who I still think is almost worth the play at 7 200.
00:19:30
That's your cutting a salary and a half.
00:19:33
You throw Antonio Gibson in at 4000, you throw to Sean Jackson, and at 4900, you can then afford the CME sees that you want to put in.
00:19:40
You're a big fan of Lamar Jackson.
00:19:41
You can you can afford a throw him in your lineup, you know? So that's why my family, these guys, because if you go back to look at his rookie season, there's some stand out there that the statistics that he put up on Lee five tight ends have done, and they're all basically all Famers.
00:19:54
Of course, there's some staff that just pull out of the air, but shows the athletic profile that you shows athletic profile, that when given the opportunity, he's great.
00:20:06
Injuries last year took him away, which is unfortunate.
00:20:08
But, you know, until DF, until DFS content catches up with him, he's just a value play every week.
00:20:15
That's worth going into your lineup.
00:20:18
Fair enough.
00:20:19
So now let's stop Brian Edwards a little bit.
00:20:20
So yeah, I look at a receiver like that.
00:20:22
Were this guy.
00:20:24
He played his college ball.
00:20:25
South Carolina's.
00:20:26
He played in the SEC right? Like this is high caliber talent.
00:20:29
He was there one.
00:20:30
If it hadn't been for injury.
00:20:32
We're talking about a first round pedigree on this kid.
00:20:34
He had an 18 year old breakout age, just a super freak athlete.
00:20:38
He's big, He's fast. He's strong.
00:20:40
Is a giant hands like all these things.
00:20:41
He should be amazing, right? It's still a rookie receiver.
00:20:45
It's still Derek Carr and he's probably gonna draw number one coverage from Dante.
00:20:49
Ah, don t Jackson, Carolina.
00:20:51
See the number one corner there? Yeah, yes, but yeah.
00:20:56
So with all these things stacking up on him drawing number one coverage, do you project him to be able to actually get that? You'd said it was like, five for 60 and touch.
00:21:06
He can Onley Because if you go look at this college tape, he is.
00:21:10
I was a little late to the party on him.
00:21:12
I was like, Oh, yeah, he's a good receiver.
00:21:13
That's fine.
00:21:14
But the more Twitter hype sum up, the more videos I see them and I'm like, OK, man, he's just a man of a man like you, said 18 breakout age.
00:21:23
You're looking this player profiler, that he's just up there upper percentile in almost everything.
00:21:27
He's just a very good athlete, and I'm kind of on the Derrick car train a little bit.
00:21:33
That feels kind of weird to say, but I just think I know it's really it's I know it's weird, especially being a Broncos fan, but I just don't Elway crying right now, Your fault.
00:21:47
I just use half where this offense in the weapons that has it can produce.
00:21:54
You know, you look at his empty No, the Derrick R N V P. Year before.
00:21:58
I think he liked broke his arm, broke his leg or something.
00:22:01
He was going to be the M V p.
00:22:03
Of the year that year.
00:22:04
They went to the playoffs a lot like I kicked in the first round, you know, real quick, but I've seen his ceiling and with his opportunity with his new wide receivers.
00:22:15
I think he can put Brian Edwards in the situation, but Brian and Webbers doesn't have a choice.
00:22:19
He's going out there, but he's going to be on the field.
00:22:23
They're playing, you know.
00:22:24
Carolina Airline has a really good offensive weapons.
00:22:27
Both the defense's air terrible.
00:22:29
I'm actually surprised at the over under is and higher than what it is.
00:22:33
So again, he's a flyer guy.
00:22:34
I wouldn't put him in a lineup with some of these other names that kind of throwing out to break out.
00:22:41
He's more of like a added in with your floor plays.
00:22:44
But if you're gonna put someone like Mark Ingram, Rim, whose 5600 parent with the Brian Edwards someone that's safer, that if he blows up and marking rumors, comes out and gives you 16 17 points, you're gonna be happy that Brian Edwards caught that five for 16 a touchdown.
00:23:00
Fair enough.
00:23:01
So we got a couple of those budget guys out of the way, so we just saved a bunch of money, right? We're probably about 34 grand ahead of the game right now, given the Value place we just punched in.
00:23:11
So who we want pay up for me because it worked that Pam for a quarterback to want Pap there? Do you want to get after running back? What's your general strategy there? I always.
00:23:24
I always enjoyed kind of paying up for the tight end position, which is kind of counter and counter intuitive.
00:23:29
But if there's old matchup, I really like, and right now it's George Kittel, and he's probably gonna be a pretty highly on tight end.
00:23:35
But if he is not the top one or two tight ends of the week, I mean, I don't I don't see a path or he's not.
00:23:42
He's playing Arizona, who was historically bad against tight ends last year.
00:23:46
Yes, they added some defense of pieces that hit the draft pretty hard.
00:23:50
They brought into Bondra Campbell from Atlanta.
00:23:52
Why we say Atlanta so bad that is, keep losing defensive players.
00:23:55
But Debo sandals hurt brain and I, you know, I don't think he's gonna play Week one.
00:24:01
So you're looking at 100 born Trent Taylor.
00:24:05
I mean, those are the guys you're kind of looking at, and, yeah, they're going to run the ball a lot.
00:24:09
But everyone knows they're gonna run the ball.
00:24:10
So I just think the focus is going to be Mawr on Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Jake McKinnon.
00:24:16
If you're finds the field again that those play action passes for George Kittel, I mean, there's a reason that he's so good.
00:24:23
It's the play action pass, and he's just a man of the man.
00:24:25
So once he's just gonna get the opportunity.
00:24:28
Those are the kind of guys that I'm looking for to pay up.
00:24:31
Um and then did you want to throw one more in there? I just don't see how you don't start Lamar Jackson.
00:24:39
Honestly, thank I.
00:24:41
The rushing floors to good.
00:24:43
They're playing Cleveland.
00:24:46
Cleveland's defense has been like, Oh, it's it's ascending.
00:24:48
It's been ascending for like six years now like that.
00:24:50
This is supposed to be a good, good defense in Cleveland for, like, six years in a row, So I don't really see how you know if you're saving, these monies are running backs paid up for Lamar.
00:24:58
But it's fun to watch.
00:24:59
Like if you ever have the more on a team and you need him to do something and you're just rooting for me and tight.
00:25:04
It's so much fun because he never lets he almost never let you down.
00:25:08
Well, I'm actually calling Lamar Dbacks and NBC because he's can't miss TV.
00:25:13
You have to watch him when he's on love, Lamar the tight end.
00:25:19
Things actually kind of interesting because when I look at that, I'm thinking to myself, OK, George Kittel, I'm 40 Niners fan, right? So I love me some.
00:25:26
George, um, you know, I am worried about a guy like Isaiah Simmons.
00:25:31
I want you Isaiah Simmons a race against Travis, said TN, the Clemson running back who is going to be a first rounder next year.
00:25:37
Um, and any Beato he was faster than one of what's allegedly one of the fastest guys in the country's gonna run a sub 44 to combine.
00:25:46
They got him codas a linebacker.
00:25:49
So this guy's gonna be playing Kittel and he can come come off and take him in the slot.
00:25:54
He separated from the, uh from the line.
00:25:56
He can run with him and he's big You 64 Plus, he's 2 25 like I'm actually little concerned about Kittel because of Isaiah Simmons.
00:26:05
That guy's going, he's fast enough, and he covers well enough to run wide receivers.
00:26:10
He's strong enough to play with a tight end.
00:26:12
He I would go ahead and target the Cardinals in the sea.
00:26:15
Chickens? I'm sorry, Seahawks.
00:26:17
Um, every week I didn't hear what side I was playing and I would, yeah, grab those guys every week.
00:26:22
But now I'm looking at those two rosters, and I'm like, No, no, thank you.
00:26:26
That's a hard pass.
00:26:27
I think I'm gonna go ahead, hurt somebody else, maybe like cowboys or something, because their safeties are a little weak.
00:26:34
But in this position, you know, do you ever worry about a rookie like that? Or do you say, Hey, you know what we need to see Improve it before we get too nervous.
00:26:42
That's kind of where I'm at.
00:26:43
Its I need to see them do it.
00:26:45
It's It's a whole new defense, basically, that hole linebacking corps about our new defense tackling and his name's escaping at the moment.
00:26:53
But that whole defense is new, and so I don't with a shortened off season, George kid, old brand new money.
00:26:59
It's just a situation where, you know, maybe later in the season they turn it around.
00:27:03
It's just George freaking Kittel like.
00:27:06
I just you know, there's no situation where I don't want him on my team.
00:27:10
The problem I do have, though, is there is just so many valuable tight ends like Hayvenhurst is a guy that I just keep kind of going back to.
00:27:19
And while he will probably be the most owned 2nd, 3rd, most own tight end when we won the of s you just this just price too good.
00:27:31
You know, I have some of the prices here, Uh, some of the tight ends hating her.
00:27:35
So George Kittel for the kind of the standard 7200, but current and talked about 3318 her 4300, Your guy that I see a lot of s Hawkinson he's 4200.
00:27:49
I mean, so there's a lot of really good values there that I think George Kittel almost becomes underrated and an aspect.
00:27:57
And so that's kind of why I'm like, I'm just gonna take the best tight end that I know is gonna probably put up numbers.
00:28:03
That's their I can dig it, man, that I know in my past, I would usually try to find, like, that pass catching running back.
00:28:10
You know, a guy maybe like a James one or something like that.
00:28:13
But I think target, you know, paying up a tight end or paying up that blacks running back who maybe is like that mid price guy, but he's got a high receiving floor, maybe doesn't get a bunch of carries, but we'll get to the Thai Ah, you know, high value yardage and catch plays that matters.
00:28:29
So when I think about building my roster and construction and I'll be quick and move on to some of the guys we like, today is when I was running backs, I want guys to catch the ball.
00:28:41
And we You and I have spoken about this many a times where run an average run play goes for what, 4.
00:28:45
5 yard right, you know? Yeah, well, look, you don't get points for the carry, right? So must their scoring a touchdown.
00:28:53
We're getting a fraction of a point with each carry, and a lot of these guys get less than 20 carries a game, right? So we really need a few big plays.
00:29:01
However, a reception.
00:29:03
You get a point for a reception or a half point, depending on what kind of you know draftkings or fanduel.
00:29:08
Whatever your preferred method is called a point or a half point for the catch itself.
00:29:13
And if you get eight yards on that kept you now have about a point and a half or so or more for that, that one play, and if that guy gets targeted six or seven times and then carries it six or seven times, suddenly you have a marginally higher forming player.
00:29:30
But he's a lot more efficient if he's catching the ball.
00:29:32
He's got a shot of getting touchdowns and we all want touchdowns, right? So it's just another way to kind of look at it and build the roster out.
00:29:40
You know, I know it's It's Labor Day. It's Monday.
00:29:43
We still have a few days into it for about lineups, and you and I will be back on on Saturday evening at some point here, a private, another late night show.
00:29:50
Teoh actually talk about lineups and show off a few that we have.
00:29:53
But if we're building a lineup right now, you know who are saying two guys that you think A.
00:29:59
These guys were busts their prices way too high.
00:30:02
There's no way that they can be a valid your return value for their price.
00:30:08
So one of them is Nick Chubb, and it's almost for the reason we just talked about that.
00:30:14
The Kerry is not as valuable as the reception.
00:30:18
And so, you know, I think he's a fantastic runner.
00:30:22
The Ravens stocked up on their defense, especially defensive line place Campbell, who is a fantastic pass rusher.
00:30:28
But he's a really good run, started just an all around great defense of linemen.
00:30:32
Derek Wolfe.
00:30:33
My guy came from Denver is just is not a good pass rusher.
00:30:38
He's a great run stuffer, and, you know, we talk about the narrative of Kareem Hunt almost to the point that it gets annoying.
00:30:44
But I just think Kareem Hunt, you know, we talked about it.
00:30:48
You can look at the stats When Cream Hunt came in.
00:30:51
Nick Chubb was not useful in the passing game whatsoever before.
00:30:56
It was actually pretty good.
00:30:58
He I think he was on like a 45 or 50 target pays for the season like it was.
00:31:02
It was really valuable for fantasy.
00:31:04
He was getting you those targets.
00:31:06
Cream home comes in, and I think it's down to like 22 but that's it.
00:31:10
Now you got a new head coach.
00:31:12
We'll see how he decides to divvy up their running back situation.
00:31:15
But I just think when you're looking at his price, which is the running back 8 65 100.
00:31:21
You're kind of almost paying a premium there to hand off the ball 18 times and you hope he gets the touchdown.
00:31:28
You just pray cream.
00:31:29
Hon is not on the field.
00:31:31
I mean, that's really what you're hoping for, man.
00:31:34
One of the guy I kind of see is a bust.
00:31:37
For me.
00:31:38
It's Zehren Jones and it's running backs because I just think running backs, or so Wallace highlight the position, and it's kind of it's weird that I almost became the Aaron Jones truther at some point during the obvious, and I was like avoiding him like all last year.
00:31:53
And then I was like, Oh, he's actually pretty good And then now everyone's fading him and I get in like the third or fourth round like he's still good.
00:32:01
But they play, you know, they play Minnesota.
00:32:05
I just think a G Dylan is probably going to get some of the goal line work and that's kind of why you know he catches the ball.
00:32:11
But I can't trust that situation to work out the way I want him soon.
00:32:15
So he's almost a situation in the Fs from like, I'm gonna wait and see.
00:32:19
Like, if it's a great matchup, I'll do it because I know he's gonna catch the ball.
00:32:22
I don't know if he's gonna catch it enough, and I don't know if he's gonna get the touchdown opportunity, which is kind of the situation.
00:32:29
I marvel waiting this year s well, it looks like the only pass catcher.
00:32:34
Green Bay has those Davante Adams, my man, Jay Stern Burger apparently will not be the number one tight end.
00:32:39
I know.
00:32:40
Hurt my old man Robert.
00:32:42
Tommy in coming, bro.
00:32:44
You forever.
00:32:45
Yeah, you know, I mean, we'll probably see some 12 out there.
00:32:48
We'll get two tight ends because there's not another wide receiver on the rostrum.
00:32:53
Pretty actually tried to call a couple of guys out of retirement like Antonio Freeman and strolling sharp.
00:32:58
That wide receiver for them.
00:33:00
Um, So Okay, so we talked about some values.
00:33:03
We talked about some payoffs.
00:33:04
We got a couple of those busts.
00:33:05
Here's the deal, guys.
00:33:07
This is our first show.
00:33:08
So thanks for joining us.
00:33:09
Want to thank? Looks like Tim A and Messy.
00:33:13
Best for the tips you guys with.
00:33:15
Thank you so much.
00:33:16
We're gonna be back on Saturday night, so keep your eyes open for that.
00:33:20
We're actually going to share a few lineups that we're building for the Milly maker on draft kings.
00:33:24
And we're gonna go through the roster build with you.
00:33:25
We're going to show you what we haven't.
00:33:27
What we're playing, um 2020 from pretty volatile.
00:33:31
There's gonna a lot of guesswork for week one.
00:33:33
So someone's gotta win the million.
00:33:34
Might as well be one of you or Well, hopefully one of us.
00:33:37
Uh, and we'll go ahead and will give me that money at between.
00:33:41
What? 14 investors, 12 viewing and two on you.
00:33:44
Figure it out, right? Yeah.
00:33:49
So guys, find us.
00:33:51
Gridiron ratings dot com Kyle at Fantasy Reserve on Twitter.
00:33:55
I am Jeff Di Matteo.
00:33:56
You can find me at gridiron ratings dot com or at NFL underscore.
00:34:00
Di Matteo d I m a t t e o.
00:34:03
We are thrilled.
00:34:04
Have been here with you.
00:34:06
Feel free to DMX with any questions.
00:34:08
We'll see a saturday, so I mean, I see them

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