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00:00:13
Welcome back to the bank action today.
00:00:16
Over the next hour, we're going to break down to Countem two divisions.
00:00:20
FC North, A F C South.
00:00:23
Jake, are you ready to jump right into it? I know you're on a bit of a TechCrunch.
00:00:27
You have drafting the keeper league tonight that I'm the commissioner of.
00:00:31
And so far, half the league has not chosen their keepers.
00:00:34
And I have about 50 minutes.
00:00:35
Do so? So I'm trying to coordinate.
00:00:37
That's Ah, but of course, excited.
00:00:40
Teoh, Keep these over unders.
00:00:42
Roland, I'm really looking forward to locking in these best as I when I go up to my cabin this week and I made an official list of everything that I'm gonna bet and I got a number of bed up there.
00:00:54
Give I'm out later.
00:00:55
So, looking forward to it, Yeah, it's simply not a bad idea.
00:01:00
I'm the more look of these bets.
00:01:02
I feel like I need to take a road trip to Chicago or something.
00:01:06
Uh, blocked the then, but let's start right away.
00:01:11
No need to delay it.
00:01:12
Let's jump right into the best regular season team last year.
00:01:16
The Baltimore Ravens, Right now over under set at 11.5.
00:01:22
They went 14 and two last year.
00:01:24
I'm pretty confidently taking the over despite them losing some offensive guys that I think hurts.
00:01:32
But that defense is so much better this year.
00:01:34
What about you? Yeah, I'm on the over as well.
00:01:38
Um, I think I mean, they're playing some.
00:01:41
They're playing some good teams, but they just blew us away last year.
00:01:44
So much talent Lamar should get, you know, should get even better, right? We start crazy production out of him, fantasy wise and just stat wise.
00:01:54
But like you said, defense is better offense.
00:01:56
Virtually should be Justus.
00:01:58
Good.
00:01:59
Um, I've got them about 12 and four.
00:02:03
Team. I don't think that they're going to go.
00:02:05
I think they over achieved a little bit over, achieved a little bit last year.
00:02:08
They did drop that one game to the Browns.
00:02:11
Could have went 15 and one, by all means, but I think they take a slight step back this year.
00:02:17
I don't think they're quite is dominant every single week, as we saw last week, areas we saw last year.
00:02:22
Excuse me, but still a solid Ah, 12 and four team, 11 and five at the worst.
00:02:27
So over 11.
00:02:29
Pretty confident, Ah, confident.
00:02:30
But for me there getting a good line at minus one.
00:02:33
Tina's well, you have been minus 1 15 is the best in the industry.
00:02:39
Having a leave.
00:02:40
Even 11 is nice.
00:02:42
Like you said, that defense is better.
00:02:43
Last year, the weakness on the defense was the run defense.
00:02:47
What do they do? They brought in class. Campbell.
00:02:49
They drafted Patrick Queen.
00:02:51
They just showed up everything.
00:02:53
Losing Ural Thomas is in a big deal.
00:02:55
He didn't fit their defensive scheme anyway.
00:02:57
Obviously, team chemistry is better without him.
00:03:00
And then offensively, losing Marshal Yanda offensive guard, one of the best in the league hurts a lot.
00:03:07
But at the end of the day, I think Lamar Jackson progresses as a quarterback.
00:03:12
I think marquees Brown's much better this year.
00:03:14
Mark Andrews is a giant covert risk with his diabetes.
00:03:17
But you can't You can't really be projecting teams based on Cove it like it's impossible.
00:03:24
Absolutely any scenario could play out this year.
00:03:27
So and obviously get end.
00:03:30
But I think probably get by without him. I mean, they did.
00:03:33
You made a lot of big plays last year for them, and he did open things up a little bit.
00:03:38
But in that dynamic of an offense with Lamar in the backfield, I think you'd get by without him for, you know, a couple weeks or whatever the case may be.
00:03:48
And after Josh Gordon signed with Si Ox today, it sounds like Antonio Brown.
00:03:53
You know, one of the most likely spots formed ago.
00:03:55
Is Baltimore teaming up with his cousin there? And that would, obviously it's game changer.
00:04:01
Wherever he goes, let's just move right away on to the Cincinnati Bengals.
00:04:06
Worst team.
00:04:07
The league Last year drafted Job Borough drafted some other talented rookies they went to and 14 last year.
00:04:15
Uh, minus that, if I'm gonna have, I think that's too big of a jump for me.
00:04:20
I think they go five and 12.
00:04:22
I'm liking the under slightly more, though this is not a bet I'm confident in in the slightest What about you? That's probably the logical, but, um, I think I am favoring the Bangles a little bit just cause I like Joe Borough, I would like to see them have success.
00:04:39
I'm I scooped up Tyler Boyd and the league's.
00:04:43
I've already drafted this year because I think he's finally gonna have a reliable quarterback and somebody that could get him the ball it on a consistent basis.
00:04:51
Not like Andy Dalton was bad, but, you know, it's just I think Joe Bro's obviously an upgrade somebody new.
00:04:56
Somebody is gonna launch the ball down the field.
00:04:59
I give the Bangles the benefit of the doubt in a few games that maybe I shouldn't have.
00:05:05
So my record projection is like six and 10 somewhere, and they're not confident enough to try and place the over bed at 5.
00:05:12
5, though very little room for air.
00:05:15
Um, and I don't think that this is a seven and nine team, I think six in tennis, kind of their cap.
00:05:20
So I think the under bed, if you're going to bet the Bangles is probably the smart one.
00:05:25
But, um, not really gonna be on this line one way or the other.
00:05:29
I don't think that's there.
00:05:31
And you know, if A J.
00:05:33
Green stays healthy for 16 games, that's huge.
00:05:36
Emma betting on that? No, Uh, offensively, he's fine.
00:05:40
Not, you know.
00:05:41
Sorry.
00:05:42
Go ahead. good defensively.
00:05:44
They're terrible.
00:05:46
But that defensive lines good is just If any team can slow the defensive line at all, I think it's game over.
00:05:53
I think the Bengals have to score 30 points to win in game, and I don't trust them to do that consistently.
00:05:59
Well.
00:06:00
And what I was going to say about A J.
00:06:01
Green is you know, he was once in that conversation, people comparing him to Julio, who is the better receiver A.
00:06:06
J.
00:06:07
Green.
00:06:08
Julio hasn't been that kind of receiver eight years now.
00:06:09
Maybe Joe Borough, you know, ignites a spark back him.
00:06:12
If he's able to stay healthy, maybe, uh, he he should be set up for one of his best seasons in years.
00:06:18
Is that gonna win you games? You know, we've heard the argument a million times that you can win without an elite wide receiver, but A J.
00:06:25
Green has got to be better than he has been in past years.
00:06:28
He just has to be.
00:06:29
And I think, as Joe Bro develops and ah, the chemistry grows between both green and Boyd.
00:06:36
We could see a pretty, pretty nice looking pass attack.
00:06:39
Ah, as this offense growth for sure.
00:06:43
I mean that when they're healthy.
00:06:44
They also have tea. Higgins.
00:06:46
He went there.
00:06:47
They have Autumn Tate.
00:06:48
They have. John Ross is just a J.
00:06:50
Green's already here.
00:06:52
A.
00:06:53
J Green's already hurt, so I think I don't trust him to do anything I have. He plays eight games.
00:06:58
I think that's being very generous.
00:07:01
I would like you, Ross find like we don't know what he can do.
00:07:05
We've never seen him.
00:07:07
Apple, like, you know, he was so touted coming out of the draft blew everybody away of this 40 and we just haven't seen him play.
00:07:13
So if they could stay healthy and I can all start playing as a unit and this team does have, you know the potential to go Like I said six in 10 but always got to go well, for them.
00:07:24
I don't I just don't see Joe Borough leading a team to a two and 14 3 and 13 type of season.
00:07:31
I think, um, you know, coaching staff struggle that took them till, like, the 15th week last year.
00:07:36
Whatever get their first went under their belt, maybe a little earlier than that, but still Ah young coaching staff.
00:07:41
But Jo Jo borough, just a winner.
00:07:44
He's a confident guy, and he looked great, too, Even though the transformation pictures that you see from right the national championship games and now he looks good, he looks like a stud.
00:07:53
So, UM, I'm gonna give him an extra game or two just because he's on the team, that's where.
00:07:59
Like I said, it's a line that I think is placed perfectly, and that usually means I want nothing to do with it.
00:08:06
We move on to the Cleveland Browns, arguably the biggest disappointment.
00:08:10
Last season, they were extremely overhyped.
00:08:12
A lot of Sharps saw through that lot of the public.
00:08:15
Didn't they want six and 10 this year over under a set of 8.
00:08:19
5? This again? This is a really tough one for me.
00:08:23
I'm debating between 18 8 in 19 7.
00:08:26
Right now, I have them winning nine games.
00:08:30
But I mean, it depends on depends on who gets injured next.
00:08:33
They keep losing people left and right.
00:08:36
What about you? Yeah.
00:08:39
I wrote down 99 and seven.
00:08:41
Vicinity of nine and seven, I think eight Nate.
00:08:43
It entirely possible to but um, they did manage.
00:08:48
Ah, they did manage six wins last year, right? Even amongst all the commotion with Baker Mayfield having a bad year that there's no other way to put it.
00:08:56
Eso I think it's just a very tough schedule to predict.
00:08:59
There's so many games that could go one way or the other, that playing teams like the Colts, the Bangles, I think they should beat a couple times.
00:09:07
But who knows? Bangles could surprise him there.
00:09:10
Are they gonna be able to steal another game from the Ravens like they did last year? We don't know Steelers, of course.
00:09:16
A big Ben gonna be tough.
00:09:17
The Steelers and Browns always play each other tough to some close Clukey games you've got, of course, anything that carries over from last year, Uh, within my whole Myles Garrett thing.
00:09:28
And ah, you're also playing the Texans.
00:09:31
The Eagles like just hard games to predict, especially when you don't know who the Browns are from week to week.
00:09:36
We don't know what they're gonna look like offensively, even though you know they picked a Boston Hooper.
00:09:41
Kareem Hunt's gonna be back in the, uh, fold as a full time back now because he, you know, miss whatever was 12 weeks or whatever last season.
00:09:50
So I think there's a lot of potential here for the Browns.
00:09:53
Are they able to put it together under another new head coach the third one in three years? I don't know, but I think they went six and 10 last year.
00:10:01
That can't be any worse this year.
00:10:02
At least you wouldn't think so.
00:10:03
So I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt eight and 89 and seven.
00:10:07
However, with the line at 8.
00:10:08
5, I do not like the overline, um, 22 bets in a row here, kind of to start off the conversation that just excuse me, the Bengals and the Browns, the last two.
00:10:19
But we talked about here just perfectly placed lines and not teams that I am confident in one way or the other.
00:10:26
Who knows that Bangles could come out and have a great season and the Browns could have another disappointing season or the bronze could become who we all want them to be in.
00:10:33
Think that they possibly could be and could blow us away, become a playoff team that might be a little bit of a far stretch, but it could happen.
00:10:40
Um, still don't like the 8.
00:10:42
5 lines, so I'm probably avoiding this one as well.
00:10:46
Yeah, I completely agree.
00:10:48
I think, uh, we'll play their offensive lines going to determine a lot.
00:10:52
They tried to remake it this offseason.
00:10:55
A lot of the problems offensively stemmed from that.
00:10:58
If you think Nick troubles good last year, this year he actually might have some running lanes.
00:11:02
I mean, that's scary.
00:11:04
They've lost a lot of defensive players already in training camp today.
00:11:08
They traded for the Jaguar starting safety.
00:11:11
Don't remember his name.
00:11:12
I could read it to you, and I still want to know Ho e got it right here because I had it.
00:11:17
I was gonna bring that up when we talk about when we talked about the Jaguars.
00:11:22
But his name is get somebody papers here.
00:11:25
Ronnie Harrison.
00:11:27
Okay, that's the kind of player he is.
00:11:30
He was a starter, but by default, and he's going to be a starter again by default.
00:11:36
Is he an upgrade? And who knows? We'll find out.
00:11:39
But at least it's another body right now for the Browns not Ward.
00:11:43
It was there, uh, rookie Delp it, I think good rookie you had.
00:11:51
That was a big loss are moving on.
00:11:53
The last team in the division were cruising this one Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:11:58
Biggest discrepancy across the industry in terms of lines.
00:12:02
So make sure you look at where you're betting you can get him at over nine at MGM and Fanduel.
00:12:09
You can get them under 10.
00:12:10
5 at Sugar House.
00:12:13
Bet Rivers in Draftkings.
00:12:15
So full 1.
00:12:16
5 games swing that's massive.
00:12:19
Last season they went Ain't mate without a quarterback.
00:12:24
Essentially, they were studying starting Duck Hodges and Mason.
00:12:29
Rudolph, who is horrendous.
00:12:32
He's worse than Duck Hodges.
00:12:33
I have them winning 10 games this year.
00:12:36
So depends on where you get that mine if you can get it over nine.
00:12:39
I like it a lot.
00:12:41
If you get it at 10.
00:12:42
5, I'm fully avoiding it.
00:12:44
What about you? Yeah, I think that is 100% fair.
00:12:49
I've got them around nine and seven, Like you said.
00:12:53
They were 18 8 last year.
00:12:54
You would think they would win more than one game with the return for more than one extra game with the return of Big Ben.
00:13:01
But, ah, even if you go 10 and six, that 10.
00:13:04
5 line, it's just gonna be hard to get to 11 wins.
00:13:06
Even in this division, I think, and up against the schedule, they got again some funky matchups, like when they play the Broncos.
00:13:14
I think that's gonna be interesting.
00:13:15
Interesting matchup.
00:13:16
They play the Eagles and Colts and the Bills as well.
00:13:20
I think the any of those games could go either way.
00:13:23
Eso if you get it at nine.
00:13:25
I like the over as well.
00:13:27
If you feel great about this team, if you're you know either a Pittsburgh Steelers fan or you fancy yourself a sharp and you're very high on the Steelers.
00:13:38
Ah, Draftkings is offering an over 10.
00:13:40
5 line at plus 2 38 which would be the biggest line that we have talked about.
00:13:47
Ah, by far here across the NFL.
00:13:50
Too risky bet going over 10.
00:13:52
5.
00:13:53
But if you think that it's gonna happen, you get a real nice payout there.
00:13:57
I'm sticking to that nine line.
00:13:59
I would lean towards the over likely a push there coming along with that nine line, Uh, over nine line.
00:14:08
Yeah.
00:14:09
Yeah, that's very true.
00:14:10
And, yeah, it comes down to their defense Is elite last year.
00:14:13
I think they are a top three defense again this year.
00:14:17
Can Big Ben be as good as he was before? It sounds like he's feeling better than he ever has.
00:14:22
He definitely looks better than he ever has.
00:14:24
He is playing for his Lord and savior, Jesus Christ this year, which, you know, if you buy into that, then you know.
00:14:29
But the over by all means.
00:14:31
He's definitely looking the part.
00:14:33
I like it.
00:14:34
Any final thoughts on the A F C North before we head down south? Yeah.
00:14:42
Um, I should brought this up.
00:14:44
We talked about the brats, but a week Won't we get Brown? It's Ravens matchup.
00:14:49
Do you think realistically the Browns have any chance of winning that game? Are they gonna have to steal one from the Ravens later in the season? They'll have to steal it.
00:14:56
In my opinion, they won last year because they were able to run all over him.
00:15:00
And it's not gonna happen this year just because those additions.
00:15:05
Yeah, I was thinking I was thinking that as well.
00:15:07
But I also think this is an opportunity for you to maybe make some money because I think the books are going Teoh give the Browns a little bit of credit or either either that or they're going to try and trick you into taking the Browns.
00:15:19
Not quite sure are.
00:15:20
They're going to set it up yet, but I mean, lines are up for week one.
00:15:23
They have been moving a little bit.
00:15:25
I haven't really looked into week one lines yet cause I've been so focused on futures and everything else yet, but, um, I think the Ravens in that week, one game against the Browns might be a pretty good opportunity to take the Ravens point spread.
00:15:39
Maybe a few other things.
00:15:40
Because I think I think the Browns air going to kind of get whooped in week one, and I'm gonna have to start from there.
00:15:49
That is my feeling as well as we talked about the A F c South here.
00:15:54
I'll bring up week one lines just so we can look at it on there.
00:15:58
Just a click away.
00:16:00
Um, yeah, a F C sell a lot of movement in this division this offseason.
00:16:06
Both good and bad will start the Houston Texans.
00:16:09
Obviously, Bill a brain making a lot of headlines early in the off season.
00:16:13
Trading my DeAndre Hopkins blowing up during the NFL draft, doing all kinds of Bill O Brien like things.
00:16:21
I guess they went 10 6 last year over, Understand? At 7.5.
00:16:25
I think that is obnoxiously low.
00:16:27
I think they could have a terrible season and go eight and eight, so I confidently hit the over on this one.
00:16:35
The only bad side on this Houston team is their secondary.
00:16:38
I think they're good everywhere else.
00:16:41
Yeah, I have been slightly down on the Texans, but not down enough to, um, you know, to have the gall to say they're not gonna hit a 7.
00:16:51
5 total 7.
00:16:52
5 games should be easily doable for them.
00:16:56
I have them go going nine and seven, roughly somewhere, and they're even.
00:17:01
So that's a game and a half game in half.
00:17:03
Leeway there for you, kind of just like Thea.
00:17:06
I mean, it's a little bit last seven half of solo, but It's kind of like the Seahawks we talked about yesterday.
00:17:10
Or if you just look at the quarterbacks history in the team's history, how many games that have been able to win in the past bunch of years? 7.
00:17:17
5 seems pretty low.
00:17:19
So I like the over as well.
00:17:20
Also getting a favorable line at minus 106 agreed in going back to the conversation about Week one.
00:17:28
Brown's versus Ravens.
00:17:29
Ravens are currently favored by eight points.
00:17:33
So again, I think I would take minus eight.
00:17:37
But I don't I don't have a strong lean either way.
00:17:43
I think so, too.
00:17:44
I was thinking maybe they would go like 65 or something to try and get you Teoh lean Browns Browns could keep it within a touchdown, you know, type thing.
00:17:53
But then, in reality, they know it's gonna be Ravens by 12 or whatever.
00:17:57
Um, eight is not too many points for me.
00:17:59
I think I would still feel pretty confident in eight double digits.
00:18:03
Might make me feel a little bit more.
00:18:04
Were wary, but that's what I was curious about.
00:18:06
Like, um, I was expecting, like a 65 line or something bookies trying Teoh Do Pia and weak one? Yeah.
00:18:15
Yeah, that we both like the over for Houston Texans.
00:18:18
7.
00:18:19
5.
00:18:20
Best odds on them is even money at BET MGM.
00:18:23
If you're in a state that has bet MGM available and legal, they usually have some really favorable odds.
00:18:30
So definitely go check them out.
00:18:33
Moving on.
00:18:34
Indianapolis Colts had a surprise retirement in the preseason.
00:18:38
Last year was stuck with a Kobe percent quarterback away from contending they bring in.
00:18:43
Philip Rivers.
00:18:44
Interviewed on the pat McAfee showed today, definitely could interview.
00:18:48
They still want seven and nine last year.
00:18:51
Lying is that nine and seven? I had them winning nine games, so if I just thought, say, over or under, I would probably side with the under.
00:19:05
But I think they go 97 looking at their schedule.
00:19:10
What about you? I got them at the same exact thing.
00:19:14
Nine and seven, maybe eight in eight if it takes him a while to get going.
00:19:19
But I think nine and seven is right on the head.
00:19:21
Eso Either way, if you got him projected nine and seven like you said potential, push with the line at nine, but I would lean under a swell.
00:19:28
The under nine is paying Ah, minus 105 Right now, the Colts are one of those teams again.
00:19:35
Where? Just weird matchups.
00:19:37
Weird games.
00:19:38
I think like the Lions are gonna be tough for them.
00:19:40
They could potentially lose to the Raiders Packers.
00:19:43
I think I'm gonna take care of business against them.
00:19:45
Even the Vikings.
00:19:46
The culture does not, at least to me.
00:19:49
They're not set up as any sort of powerhouse team.
00:19:52
They're a team that will and close games.
00:19:55
When they do win, they never hardly ever blow anybody out.
00:19:58
And they usually get down pretty early.
00:20:00
Things might look different, Uh, under under Philip Rivers, of course, but Rivers kind of went from one type of situation to the same type of situation from San Diego to or L A.
00:20:12
Now to the Colts, I think the teams often end up looking looking alike, looking similar.
00:20:20
Their games play out the same way where the culture is trying to make a comeback late in the fourth.
00:20:25
I just don't think they take a huge leap this year, even though Philip Rivers obviously is an upgrade from scrubby percent, but percent was not horrible.
00:20:34
He's not.
00:20:35
It's not like they, you know, played with a bad quarterback.
00:20:38
All season long.
00:20:39
He was serviceable.
00:20:40
They were able to win 77 games.
00:20:43
They got some of the best offensive line players at football, so the Colts do have things going for them.
00:20:48
But I would probably lean towards the under with the chance of a push there at night.
00:20:54
I can pretty much guarantee at least eight games were going to come down to fourth quarter drive to win the game for Philip Rivers.
00:21:02
And I am very confident.
00:21:04
Six out of those eight will lead or end up with an interception or a bad throat.
00:21:08
That is my quarterback.
00:21:10
That's Philip Rivers all day.
00:21:13
Now, I said the Steelers had the biggest pricing discrepancy across the industry culture and same kind of situation.
00:21:20
So I ask you this, would you rather bet over 8.
00:21:24
5 or under 10.
00:21:26
5? I rather bet the under 10.
00:21:29
5 I don't You absolutely do not see this team winning 11 games now that catches the under 10.
00:21:38
5 comes with a minus 305 price.
00:21:40
Take.
00:21:41
So you're, uh, laying some gigantic juice.
00:21:44
But you can comfortably late more money on this bet than the nine.
00:21:48
Line 305 I mean, if you bet $100 you're not getting what would that be like, barely 33 bucks in return.
00:21:56
But still, it's a pretty safe bet.
00:21:58
And if you're somebody that's willing to put down a little bit of money, uh, take that 10.
00:22:01
5 line.
00:22:03
If not, and you insist on betting the colts anyways, go go more risky.
00:22:07
Take the nine.
00:22:08
But, uh, 10.
00:22:10
5, obviously a very comfortable line.
00:22:12
That's why it comes with such a giant pay discrepancies.
00:22:15
Well, completely agree.
00:22:18
And you can get that 10.
00:22:19
5 line at Sugar House, bet rivers and draftkings.
00:22:23
The 8.
00:22:24
5 mine again is that bet MGM Now the team everyone wants to talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars.
00:22:33
Minshew mania swept the nation.
00:22:35
They went six and 10 last year.
00:22:38
They hate or cleaning house by all accounts.
00:22:42
Over Under is currently set at four.
00:22:45
I'm still confident in the under.
00:22:47
What about you? Yeah, we We had this discussion on Twitter a couple days ago, before the letter for not news before they traded away their safety.
00:22:57
Their total was at five, and I loved that bet.
00:22:59
We both called it a lock at five.
00:23:02
You gotta dropping a full game.
00:23:04
I've gotta dropping a half game.
00:23:05
I don't I don't like it as much at, um, at 4 4.5.
00:23:10
Maybe because I don't see them winning five games, really? But I've got him at four and 12 this year.
00:23:17
Well, makes me nervous with a four or 4.
00:23:18
5 line, though, is somehow they do pick up an extra game and ah, your you just don't have much room to work with.
00:23:25
Four wins is not very money, but it's Ah, it's also a risky bet.
00:23:31
You know, when you're betting anything that low, it's the same thing I always see in baseball.
00:23:35
You know, any time you try and take like a in under 2.
00:23:37
5 runs line or whatever, it's just so easy to slip into, like slip into an extra run.
00:23:43
And then you lose that bet because the numbers so low.
00:23:45
So I'm nervous about that with the Jaguars now that it's no longer at five.
00:23:50
I absolutely loved to that five.
00:23:52
If you can find it at five, still take it.
00:23:54
But I doubt it's at five anywhere after the Leonard Fournette transactions and your might even see other players being sent off as we roll on here.
00:24:02
I don't really know who else they have to offer as far as like studs or anybody they could get anything for.
00:24:08
But don't be surprised.
00:24:09
We see one or two more Jacksonville players end up on the block.
00:24:15
Yeah, I mean, they just signed Joe Schobert to a big deal.
00:24:18
Maybe they shipped him out the door.
00:24:20
I doubt it, but we'll see.
00:24:22
But bet MGM should sponsor us because they're coming through yet again.
00:24:27
Let's talk him up.
00:24:28
They are the only book that has them at five.
00:24:31
So by all means under five minus 1 64 Hammer the under hop on and playing fly to New Jersey, enjoy Trenton for a day or whatever.
00:24:40
Throw some money down with that MGM, Um, unfortunately, even though it stayed at five, obviously the line did move because I believed they were under five in like the 1 30 range, And now, he said, it's in the one fifties somewhere, right? One 16 64.
00:24:57
Yeah, so that's I mean, that's still some juice, especially when you could get it for about 1 30 less than a week ago.
00:25:04
But if you didn't walk in the bed, which I'm sure most of us they have, not already.
00:25:09
You got to do with what you get now.
00:25:11
And unfortunately bad MGM, I think, is available in less states than Fanduel and draftkings.
00:25:17
I think they're only in, like, three states.
00:25:20
Ah, but anyways, if you if you do have the ability, definitely go over bet MGM, Zack said.
00:25:27
Talk him up.
00:25:28
I would love to talk him up.
00:25:29
They always have great promo, as they always have.
00:25:31
You know, I'm part of my taken stuff.
00:25:32
They had good deals with them.
00:25:34
Just I live in Wisconsin, don't have any access to use them.
00:25:37
But I do look at their app sometimes, as they do show you lines and everything and the NFL, especially over the course of the NFL season.
00:25:45
They have, like ridiculous props and ah, very favorable things.
00:25:50
Very favorable props for the better So check them out if you can, and check us out at MGM.
00:25:58
We can do it.
00:25:59
Doesn't matter where we live.
00:26:00
We'll talk.
00:26:01
You will say you are the exclusive book.
00:26:04
I I'll sell out for pretty much any price at this point.
00:26:07
Let's move on.
00:26:09
In New Jersey, I grew up a devil stand.
00:26:11
That's fine with me.
00:26:12
A a.
00:26:13
There we go. That's all we need.
00:26:15
Let's move on to the A F C South winners last year.
00:26:19
Did they end up beating the Texans out? I think so, Yeah, I believe they did.
00:26:24
Is close.
00:26:26
Tennessee Titans Obviously, Derrick Henry went on that historic run.
00:26:31
He was just destroying people.
00:26:32
They ended up finishing nine and seven, thanks to a switch.
00:26:36
A quarterback to Ryan Tannehill.
00:26:37
They extended him over under, You know, setting up the same type of season is that 8.
00:26:42
5 right now? And I am predicting the same season.
00:26:45
I haven't met nine and seven again.
00:26:47
This is a line that I think it's set pretty pretty much in the Bulls eye and I would rather avoid it.
00:26:54
But after, if I have to leave, lean one way or the other, it would be the over.
00:26:59
What about you? We're pretty much in agreement in most areas today.
00:27:05
I, however, would, I don't know.
00:27:08
Maybe just because I'm sick of taking so many overs as I've been looking through and think through.
00:27:13
I'm like, man, I've been given over almost every team and not all these teams can hit the over.
00:27:18
So the Titans this year, I am going to say, Ah, end up under 8.
00:27:23
5 if you could get a nine line.
00:27:25
I like that a lot better, but, um, you get ah cost one of seven payout.
00:27:30
I just don't think that Derrick Henry, even if he stays healthy all year, I don't think he's goingto be rushing or putting up 200 yards a game, every single game and one of those games like he did all playoffs long.
00:27:42
I think Ryan Tannehill is gonna have to do a lot more.
00:27:45
He's gonna have to be good, and they're going to have Teoh be more of a dynamic offense than just hand the ball to Derrick Henry for 16 weeks in a row.
00:27:54
I think that they aren't really that hard of a matchup for a few teams that they're playing as long as you can contain a Derrick Henry, you gotta make Ryan Tannehill make plays, make the ball, uh, making throw the ball downfield.
00:28:08
And I think that they're gonna be a decent matchup for teams like the Vikings, Bills, even the Browns.
00:28:14
I think the Lions have a chance of beating the steam.
00:28:16
Ah, sometimes the Titans just struggle on a week to week basis.
00:28:20
Obviously, you can't take everything from last year as they did switch from Marcus Mariota.
00:28:25
Tannehill Tannehill looked great up until the playoffs, and then he kind of disappeared.
00:28:29
Derrick Henry took over.
00:28:31
They're not gonna be able to have those ebbs and flows throughout the entire season if you're gonna want to hit the over bet.
00:28:37
So I'm not saying it with much confidence, But again, somebody's gonna have to hit the under eventually here.
00:28:43
So I'm going to say the Titans, I take a step back from their division winning glory last year from there.
00:28:51
Ah, heck of a run in the playoffs.
00:28:53
I mean, nobody's gonna say that that wasn't a great run in the playoffs, but, you know, can you do that again? over a 16 week season and then again through the playoffs? Not quite.
00:29:02
Not quite so sure.
00:29:03
So I'm gonna say they take a step back, kind of come back to reality, and I'm gonna go with the under here.
00:29:09
To your point, I think the Houston Texans air a really tough matchup for the Tennessee Titans.
00:29:16
You know, you can pick on the Texan secondary, but can the passing attack of the Titans do that? And again, Texans Offense is pretty good.
00:29:25
Uh, Times defense is fine.
00:29:27
I think the unsung hero of their defense last year was Logan Ryan.
00:29:32
Yet it down season some areas, but he still put up over 100 tackles.
00:29:37
As a cornerback, he was much better in the running game than people give him credit for.
00:29:42
Still a free agent.
00:29:43
So there's a chance they bring him back in.
00:29:46
Giants, I guess, are pursuing him.
00:29:48
We will see he should find a home pretty soon, But I think losing Logan Ryan is a big deal, even though I think he was just playing slot or ah, nickel corner majority of the time anyway.
00:30:01
Well, I, um it seems that I mentioned were just outside of their division.
00:30:07
I think that they dio tough matchups within the division except for maybe the Jaguars.
00:30:12
But I think obviously, like you just addressed the Texans.
00:30:16
Gonna be tough. They play them tough every single year.
00:30:18
And I don't think the Colts are gonna be a breeze by game, by any means for the Titans, either.
00:30:22
So could, ah, could end up losing a few more games.
00:30:27
And everybody expects that they will agreed.
00:30:31
And to your point about we keep talking about the overs and stuff.
00:30:35
I do have a tool.
00:30:36
So I do have my wind totals equal the correct amount.
00:30:40
Um, again, you know, I'm going to adjust.
00:30:42
I'm still, but I do have the trains at nine and seven again.
00:30:46
I had the Jaguars winning two games, though, so that kind of helps that out.
00:30:51
And you could be terrible and fall into three wins.
00:30:54
So I need to look at that little little bit more.
00:30:58
Half an hour to divisions, though.
00:31:01
Okay.
00:31:03
Lets go new.
00:31:04
We, uh, kind of flew through that one, but it again, like we've been talking so extensively in these videos.
00:31:09
Um, so go check out the previous ones.
00:31:13
You'd like more information on the entire air, NFC. Excuse me.
00:31:16
Um, might be able to do a little bit more of a deep dive in the next two a f C conferences, but it is fantasy football season.
00:31:24
And right now, drafts, you know, gotta take priority sometimes and again, I have 18 minutes now 17 minutes now to figure out who everybody's keeping in my league before our draft starts.
00:31:36
So, um, but thank you for tuning in everybody and hopefully make a little bit of money from what Zach and I just shared with you.
00:31:45
Absolutely.
00:31:46
Which Jake Luck in his fantasy draft.
00:31:48
He is going to go do that.
00:31:49
I'm going to end the stream and come right back on.
00:31:52
We're going to be talking a little bit of buccaneers for fantasy football.
00:31:56
I'm going to break down what Bruce Arians said about this backfield committee kind of diagnosis.
00:32:02
What this coach is actually saying, I think it's a lot clear than the rest of the media kind of giving it credit to.
00:32:09
So I will be right back.
00:32:10
Jake, good luck.
00:32:11
Have fun when you draft.
00:32:14
Thank you.
00:32:15
Thank you.
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Transcript hideup

00:00:13
Welcome back to the bank action today.
00:00:16
Over the next hour, we're going to break down to Countem two divisions.
00:00:20
FC North, A F C South.
00:00:23
Jake, are you ready to jump right into it? I know you're on a bit of a TechCrunch.
00:00:27
You have drafting the keeper league tonight that I'm the commissioner of.
00:00:31
And so far, half the league has not chosen their keepers.
00:00:34
And I have about 50 minutes.
00:00:35
Do so? So I'm trying to coordinate.
00:00:37
That's Ah, but of course, excited.
00:00:40
Teoh, Keep these over unders.
00:00:42
Roland, I'm really looking forward to locking in these best as I when I go up to my cabin this week and I made an official list of everything that I'm gonna bet and I got a number of bed up there.
00:00:54
Give I'm out later.
00:00:55
So, looking forward to it, Yeah, it's simply not a bad idea.
00:01:00
I'm the more look of these bets.
00:01:02
I feel like I need to take a road trip to Chicago or something.
00:01:06
Uh, blocked the then, but let's start right away.
00:01:11
No need to delay it.
00:01:12
Let's jump right into the best regular season team last year.
00:01:16
The Baltimore Ravens, Right now over under set at 11.5.
00:01:22
They went 14 and two last year.
00:01:24
I'm pretty confidently taking the over despite them losing some offensive guys that I think hurts.
00:01:32
But that defense is so much better this year.
00:01:34
What about you? Yeah, I'm on the over as well.
00:01:38
Um, I think I mean, they're playing some.
00:01:41
They're playing some good teams, but they just blew us away last year.
00:01:44
So much talent Lamar should get, you know, should get even better, right? We start crazy production out of him, fantasy wise and just stat wise.
00:01:54
But like you said, defense is better offense.
00:01:56
Virtually should be Justus.
00:01:58
Good.
00:01:59
Um, I've got them about 12 and four.
00:02:03
Team. I don't think that they're going to go.
00:02:05
I think they over achieved a little bit over, achieved a little bit last year.
00:02:08
They did drop that one game to the Browns.
00:02:11
Could have went 15 and one, by all means, but I think they take a slight step back this year.
00:02:17
I don't think they're quite is dominant every single week, as we saw last week, areas we saw last year.
00:02:22
Excuse me, but still a solid Ah, 12 and four team, 11 and five at the worst.
00:02:27
So over 11.
00:02:29
Pretty confident, Ah, confident.
00:02:30
But for me there getting a good line at minus one.
00:02:33
Tina's well, you have been minus 1 15 is the best in the industry.
00:02:39
Having a leave.
00:02:40
Even 11 is nice.
00:02:42
Like you said, that defense is better.
00:02:43
Last year, the weakness on the defense was the run defense.
00:02:47
What do they do? They brought in class. Campbell.
00:02:49
They drafted Patrick Queen.
00:02:51
They just showed up everything.
00:02:53
Losing Ural Thomas is in a big deal.
00:02:55
He didn't fit their defensive scheme anyway.
00:02:57
Obviously, team chemistry is better without him.
00:03:00
And then offensively, losing Marshal Yanda offensive guard, one of the best in the league hurts a lot.
00:03:07
But at the end of the day, I think Lamar Jackson progresses as a quarterback.
00:03:12
I think marquees Brown's much better this year.
00:03:14
Mark Andrews is a giant covert risk with his diabetes.
00:03:17
But you can't You can't really be projecting teams based on Cove it like it's impossible.
00:03:24
Absolutely any scenario could play out this year.
00:03:27
So and obviously get end.
00:03:30
But I think probably get by without him. I mean, they did.
00:03:33
You made a lot of big plays last year for them, and he did open things up a little bit.
00:03:38
But in that dynamic of an offense with Lamar in the backfield, I think you'd get by without him for, you know, a couple weeks or whatever the case may be.
00:03:48
And after Josh Gordon signed with Si Ox today, it sounds like Antonio Brown.
00:03:53
You know, one of the most likely spots formed ago.
00:03:55
Is Baltimore teaming up with his cousin there? And that would, obviously it's game changer.
00:04:01
Wherever he goes, let's just move right away on to the Cincinnati Bengals.
00:04:06
Worst team.
00:04:07
The league Last year drafted Job Borough drafted some other talented rookies they went to and 14 last year.
00:04:15
Uh, minus that, if I'm gonna have, I think that's too big of a jump for me.
00:04:20
I think they go five and 12.
00:04:22
I'm liking the under slightly more, though this is not a bet I'm confident in in the slightest What about you? That's probably the logical, but, um, I think I am favoring the Bangles a little bit just cause I like Joe Borough, I would like to see them have success.
00:04:39
I'm I scooped up Tyler Boyd and the league's.
00:04:43
I've already drafted this year because I think he's finally gonna have a reliable quarterback and somebody that could get him the ball it on a consistent basis.
00:04:51
Not like Andy Dalton was bad, but, you know, it's just I think Joe Bro's obviously an upgrade somebody new.
00:04:56
Somebody is gonna launch the ball down the field.
00:04:59
I give the Bangles the benefit of the doubt in a few games that maybe I shouldn't have.
00:05:05
So my record projection is like six and 10 somewhere, and they're not confident enough to try and place the over bed at 5.
00:05:12
5, though very little room for air.
00:05:15
Um, and I don't think that this is a seven and nine team, I think six in tennis, kind of their cap.
00:05:20
So I think the under bed, if you're going to bet the Bangles is probably the smart one.
00:05:25
But, um, not really gonna be on this line one way or the other.
00:05:29
I don't think that's there.
00:05:31
And you know, if A J.
00:05:33
Green stays healthy for 16 games, that's huge.
00:05:36
Emma betting on that? No, Uh, offensively, he's fine.
00:05:40
Not, you know.
00:05:41
Sorry.
00:05:42
Go ahead. good defensively.
00:05:44
They're terrible.
00:05:46
But that defensive lines good is just If any team can slow the defensive line at all, I think it's game over.
00:05:53
I think the Bengals have to score 30 points to win in game, and I don't trust them to do that consistently.
00:05:59
Well.
00:06:00
And what I was going to say about A J.
00:06:01
Green is you know, he was once in that conversation, people comparing him to Julio, who is the better receiver A.
00:06:06
J.
00:06:07
Green.
00:06:08
Julio hasn't been that kind of receiver eight years now.
00:06:09
Maybe Joe Borough, you know, ignites a spark back him.
00:06:12
If he's able to stay healthy, maybe, uh, he he should be set up for one of his best seasons in years.
00:06:18
Is that gonna win you games? You know, we've heard the argument a million times that you can win without an elite wide receiver, but A J.
00:06:25
Green has got to be better than he has been in past years.
00:06:28
He just has to be.
00:06:29
And I think, as Joe Bro develops and ah, the chemistry grows between both green and Boyd.
00:06:36
We could see a pretty, pretty nice looking pass attack.
00:06:39
Ah, as this offense growth for sure.
00:06:43
I mean that when they're healthy.
00:06:44
They also have tea. Higgins.
00:06:46
He went there.
00:06:47
They have Autumn Tate.
00:06:48
They have. John Ross is just a J.
00:06:50
Green's already here.
00:06:52
A.
00:06:53
J Green's already hurt, so I think I don't trust him to do anything I have. He plays eight games.
00:06:58
I think that's being very generous.
00:07:01
I would like you, Ross find like we don't know what he can do.
00:07:05
We've never seen him.
00:07:07
Apple, like, you know, he was so touted coming out of the draft blew everybody away of this 40 and we just haven't seen him play.
00:07:13
So if they could stay healthy and I can all start playing as a unit and this team does have, you know the potential to go Like I said six in 10 but always got to go well, for them.
00:07:24
I don't I just don't see Joe Borough leading a team to a two and 14 3 and 13 type of season.
00:07:31
I think, um, you know, coaching staff struggle that took them till, like, the 15th week last year.
00:07:36
Whatever get their first went under their belt, maybe a little earlier than that, but still Ah young coaching staff.
00:07:41
But Jo Jo borough, just a winner.
00:07:44
He's a confident guy, and he looked great, too, Even though the transformation pictures that you see from right the national championship games and now he looks good, he looks like a stud.
00:07:53
So, UM, I'm gonna give him an extra game or two just because he's on the team, that's where.
00:07:59
Like I said, it's a line that I think is placed perfectly, and that usually means I want nothing to do with it.
00:08:06
We move on to the Cleveland Browns, arguably the biggest disappointment.
00:08:10
Last season, they were extremely overhyped.
00:08:12
A lot of Sharps saw through that lot of the public.
00:08:15
Didn't they want six and 10 this year over under a set of 8.
00:08:19
5? This again? This is a really tough one for me.
00:08:23
I'm debating between 18 8 in 19 7.
00:08:26
Right now, I have them winning nine games.
00:08:30
But I mean, it depends on depends on who gets injured next.
00:08:33
They keep losing people left and right.
00:08:36
What about you? Yeah.
00:08:39
I wrote down 99 and seven.
00:08:41
Vicinity of nine and seven, I think eight Nate.
00:08:43
It entirely possible to but um, they did manage.
00:08:48
Ah, they did manage six wins last year, right? Even amongst all the commotion with Baker Mayfield having a bad year that there's no other way to put it.
00:08:56
Eso I think it's just a very tough schedule to predict.
00:08:59
There's so many games that could go one way or the other, that playing teams like the Colts, the Bangles, I think they should beat a couple times.
00:09:07
But who knows? Bangles could surprise him there.
00:09:10
Are they gonna be able to steal another game from the Ravens like they did last year? We don't know Steelers, of course.
00:09:16
A big Ben gonna be tough.
00:09:17
The Steelers and Browns always play each other tough to some close Clukey games you've got, of course, anything that carries over from last year, Uh, within my whole Myles Garrett thing.
00:09:28
And ah, you're also playing the Texans.
00:09:31
The Eagles like just hard games to predict, especially when you don't know who the Browns are from week to week.
00:09:36
We don't know what they're gonna look like offensively, even though you know they picked a Boston Hooper.
00:09:41
Kareem Hunt's gonna be back in the, uh, fold as a full time back now because he, you know, miss whatever was 12 weeks or whatever last season.
00:09:50
So I think there's a lot of potential here for the Browns.
00:09:53
Are they able to put it together under another new head coach the third one in three years? I don't know, but I think they went six and 10 last year.
00:10:01
That can't be any worse this year.
00:10:02
At least you wouldn't think so.
00:10:03
So I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt eight and 89 and seven.
00:10:07
However, with the line at 8.
00:10:08
5, I do not like the overline, um, 22 bets in a row here, kind of to start off the conversation that just excuse me, the Bengals and the Browns, the last two.
00:10:19
But we talked about here just perfectly placed lines and not teams that I am confident in one way or the other.
00:10:26
Who knows that Bangles could come out and have a great season and the Browns could have another disappointing season or the bronze could become who we all want them to be in.
00:10:33
Think that they possibly could be and could blow us away, become a playoff team that might be a little bit of a far stretch, but it could happen.
00:10:40
Um, still don't like the 8.
00:10:42
5 lines, so I'm probably avoiding this one as well.
00:10:46
Yeah, I completely agree.
00:10:48
I think, uh, we'll play their offensive lines going to determine a lot.
00:10:52
They tried to remake it this offseason.
00:10:55
A lot of the problems offensively stemmed from that.
00:10:58
If you think Nick troubles good last year, this year he actually might have some running lanes.
00:11:02
I mean, that's scary.
00:11:04
They've lost a lot of defensive players already in training camp today.
00:11:08
They traded for the Jaguar starting safety.
00:11:11
Don't remember his name.
00:11:12
I could read it to you, and I still want to know Ho e got it right here because I had it.
00:11:17
I was gonna bring that up when we talk about when we talked about the Jaguars.
00:11:22
But his name is get somebody papers here.
00:11:25
Ronnie Harrison.
00:11:27
Okay, that's the kind of player he is.
00:11:30
He was a starter, but by default, and he's going to be a starter again by default.
00:11:36
Is he an upgrade? And who knows? We'll find out.
00:11:39
But at least it's another body right now for the Browns not Ward.
00:11:43
It was there, uh, rookie Delp it, I think good rookie you had.
00:11:51
That was a big loss are moving on.
00:11:53
The last team in the division were cruising this one Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:11:58
Biggest discrepancy across the industry in terms of lines.
00:12:02
So make sure you look at where you're betting you can get him at over nine at MGM and Fanduel.
00:12:09
You can get them under 10.
00:12:10
5 at Sugar House.
00:12:13
Bet Rivers in Draftkings.
00:12:15
So full 1.
00:12:16
5 games swing that's massive.
00:12:19
Last season they went Ain't mate without a quarterback.
00:12:24
Essentially, they were studying starting Duck Hodges and Mason.
00:12:29
Rudolph, who is horrendous.
00:12:32
He's worse than Duck Hodges.
00:12:33
I have them winning 10 games this year.
00:12:36
So depends on where you get that mine if you can get it over nine.
00:12:39
I like it a lot.
00:12:41
If you get it at 10.
00:12:42
5, I'm fully avoiding it.
00:12:44
What about you? Yeah, I think that is 100% fair.
00:12:49
I've got them around nine and seven, Like you said.
00:12:53
They were 18 8 last year.
00:12:54
You would think they would win more than one game with the return for more than one extra game with the return of Big Ben.
00:13:01
But, ah, even if you go 10 and six, that 10.
00:13:04
5 line, it's just gonna be hard to get to 11 wins.
00:13:06
Even in this division, I think, and up against the schedule, they got again some funky matchups, like when they play the Broncos.
00:13:14
I think that's gonna be interesting.
00:13:15
Interesting matchup.
00:13:16
They play the Eagles and Colts and the Bills as well.
00:13:20
I think the any of those games could go either way.
00:13:23
Eso if you get it at nine.
00:13:25
I like the over as well.
00:13:27
If you feel great about this team, if you're you know either a Pittsburgh Steelers fan or you fancy yourself a sharp and you're very high on the Steelers.
00:13:38
Ah, Draftkings is offering an over 10.
00:13:40
5 line at plus 2 38 which would be the biggest line that we have talked about.
00:13:47
Ah, by far here across the NFL.
00:13:50
Too risky bet going over 10.
00:13:52
5.
00:13:53
But if you think that it's gonna happen, you get a real nice payout there.
00:13:57
I'm sticking to that nine line.
00:13:59
I would lean towards the over likely a push there coming along with that nine line, Uh, over nine line.
00:14:08
Yeah.
00:14:09
Yeah, that's very true.
00:14:10
And, yeah, it comes down to their defense Is elite last year.
00:14:13
I think they are a top three defense again this year.
00:14:17
Can Big Ben be as good as he was before? It sounds like he's feeling better than he ever has.
00:14:22
He definitely looks better than he ever has.
00:14:24
He is playing for his Lord and savior, Jesus Christ this year, which, you know, if you buy into that, then you know.
00:14:29
But the over by all means.
00:14:31
He's definitely looking the part.
00:14:33
I like it.
00:14:34
Any final thoughts on the A F C North before we head down south? Yeah.
00:14:42
Um, I should brought this up.
00:14:44
We talked about the brats, but a week Won't we get Brown? It's Ravens matchup.
00:14:49
Do you think realistically the Browns have any chance of winning that game? Are they gonna have to steal one from the Ravens later in the season? They'll have to steal it.
00:14:56
In my opinion, they won last year because they were able to run all over him.
00:15:00
And it's not gonna happen this year just because those additions.
00:15:05
Yeah, I was thinking I was thinking that as well.
00:15:07
But I also think this is an opportunity for you to maybe make some money because I think the books are going Teoh give the Browns a little bit of credit or either either that or they're going to try and trick you into taking the Browns.
00:15:19
Not quite sure are.
00:15:20
They're going to set it up yet, but I mean, lines are up for week one.
00:15:23
They have been moving a little bit.
00:15:25
I haven't really looked into week one lines yet cause I've been so focused on futures and everything else yet, but, um, I think the Ravens in that week, one game against the Browns might be a pretty good opportunity to take the Ravens point spread.
00:15:39
Maybe a few other things.
00:15:40
Because I think I think the Browns air going to kind of get whooped in week one, and I'm gonna have to start from there.
00:15:49
That is my feeling as well as we talked about the A F c South here.
00:15:54
I'll bring up week one lines just so we can look at it on there.
00:15:58
Just a click away.
00:16:00
Um, yeah, a F C sell a lot of movement in this division this offseason.
00:16:06
Both good and bad will start the Houston Texans.
00:16:09
Obviously, Bill a brain making a lot of headlines early in the off season.
00:16:13
Trading my DeAndre Hopkins blowing up during the NFL draft, doing all kinds of Bill O Brien like things.
00:16:21
I guess they went 10 6 last year over, Understand? At 7.5.
00:16:25
I think that is obnoxiously low.
00:16:27
I think they could have a terrible season and go eight and eight, so I confidently hit the over on this one.
00:16:35
The only bad side on this Houston team is their secondary.
00:16:38
I think they're good everywhere else.
00:16:41
Yeah, I have been slightly down on the Texans, but not down enough to, um, you know, to have the gall to say they're not gonna hit a 7.
00:16:51
5 total 7.
00:16:52
5 games should be easily doable for them.
00:16:56
I have them go going nine and seven, roughly somewhere, and they're even.
00:17:01
So that's a game and a half game in half.
00:17:03
Leeway there for you, kind of just like Thea.
00:17:06
I mean, it's a little bit last seven half of solo, but It's kind of like the Seahawks we talked about yesterday.
00:17:10
Or if you just look at the quarterbacks history in the team's history, how many games that have been able to win in the past bunch of years? 7.
00:17:17
5 seems pretty low.
00:17:19
So I like the over as well.
00:17:20
Also getting a favorable line at minus 106 agreed in going back to the conversation about Week one.
00:17:28
Brown's versus Ravens.
00:17:29
Ravens are currently favored by eight points.
00:17:33
So again, I think I would take minus eight.
00:17:37
But I don't I don't have a strong lean either way.
00:17:43
I think so, too.
00:17:44
I was thinking maybe they would go like 65 or something to try and get you Teoh lean Browns Browns could keep it within a touchdown, you know, type thing.
00:17:53
But then, in reality, they know it's gonna be Ravens by 12 or whatever.
00:17:57
Um, eight is not too many points for me.
00:17:59
I think I would still feel pretty confident in eight double digits.
00:18:03
Might make me feel a little bit more.
00:18:04
Were wary, but that's what I was curious about.
00:18:06
Like, um, I was expecting, like a 65 line or something bookies trying Teoh Do Pia and weak one? Yeah.
00:18:15
Yeah, that we both like the over for Houston Texans.
00:18:18
7.
00:18:19
5.
00:18:20
Best odds on them is even money at BET MGM.
00:18:23
If you're in a state that has bet MGM available and legal, they usually have some really favorable odds.
00:18:30
So definitely go check them out.
00:18:33
Moving on.
00:18:34
Indianapolis Colts had a surprise retirement in the preseason.
00:18:38
Last year was stuck with a Kobe percent quarterback away from contending they bring in.
00:18:43
Philip Rivers.
00:18:44
Interviewed on the pat McAfee showed today, definitely could interview.
00:18:48
They still want seven and nine last year.
00:18:51
Lying is that nine and seven? I had them winning nine games, so if I just thought, say, over or under, I would probably side with the under.
00:19:05
But I think they go 97 looking at their schedule.
00:19:10
What about you? I got them at the same exact thing.
00:19:14
Nine and seven, maybe eight in eight if it takes him a while to get going.
00:19:19
But I think nine and seven is right on the head.
00:19:21
Eso Either way, if you got him projected nine and seven like you said potential, push with the line at nine, but I would lean under a swell.
00:19:28
The under nine is paying Ah, minus 105 Right now, the Colts are one of those teams again.
00:19:35
Where? Just weird matchups.
00:19:37
Weird games.
00:19:38
I think like the Lions are gonna be tough for them.
00:19:40
They could potentially lose to the Raiders Packers.
00:19:43
I think I'm gonna take care of business against them.
00:19:45
Even the Vikings.
00:19:46
The culture does not, at least to me.
00:19:49
They're not set up as any sort of powerhouse team.
00:19:52
They're a team that will and close games.
00:19:55
When they do win, they never hardly ever blow anybody out.
00:19:58
And they usually get down pretty early.
00:20:00
Things might look different, Uh, under under Philip Rivers, of course, but Rivers kind of went from one type of situation to the same type of situation from San Diego to or L A.
00:20:12
Now to the Colts, I think the teams often end up looking looking alike, looking similar.
00:20:20
Their games play out the same way where the culture is trying to make a comeback late in the fourth.
00:20:25
I just don't think they take a huge leap this year, even though Philip Rivers obviously is an upgrade from scrubby percent, but percent was not horrible.
00:20:34
He's not.
00:20:35
It's not like they, you know, played with a bad quarterback.
00:20:38
All season long.
00:20:39
He was serviceable.
00:20:40
They were able to win 77 games.
00:20:43
They got some of the best offensive line players at football, so the Colts do have things going for them.
00:20:48
But I would probably lean towards the under with the chance of a push there at night.
00:20:54
I can pretty much guarantee at least eight games were going to come down to fourth quarter drive to win the game for Philip Rivers.
00:21:02
And I am very confident.
00:21:04
Six out of those eight will lead or end up with an interception or a bad throat.
00:21:08
That is my quarterback.
00:21:10
That's Philip Rivers all day.
00:21:13
Now, I said the Steelers had the biggest pricing discrepancy across the industry culture and same kind of situation.
00:21:20
So I ask you this, would you rather bet over 8.
00:21:24
5 or under 10.
00:21:26
5? I rather bet the under 10.
00:21:29
5 I don't You absolutely do not see this team winning 11 games now that catches the under 10.
00:21:38
5 comes with a minus 305 price.
00:21:40
Take.
00:21:41
So you're, uh, laying some gigantic juice.
00:21:44
But you can comfortably late more money on this bet than the nine.
00:21:48
Line 305 I mean, if you bet $100 you're not getting what would that be like, barely 33 bucks in return.
00:21:56
But still, it's a pretty safe bet.
00:21:58
And if you're somebody that's willing to put down a little bit of money, uh, take that 10.
00:22:01
5 line.
00:22:03
If not, and you insist on betting the colts anyways, go go more risky.
00:22:07
Take the nine.
00:22:08
But, uh, 10.
00:22:10
5, obviously a very comfortable line.
00:22:12
That's why it comes with such a giant pay discrepancies.
00:22:15
Well, completely agree.
00:22:18
And you can get that 10.
00:22:19
5 line at Sugar House, bet rivers and draftkings.
00:22:23
The 8.
00:22:24
5 mine again is that bet MGM Now the team everyone wants to talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars.
00:22:33
Minshew mania swept the nation.
00:22:35
They went six and 10 last year.
00:22:38
They hate or cleaning house by all accounts.
00:22:42
Over Under is currently set at four.
00:22:45
I'm still confident in the under.
00:22:47
What about you? Yeah, we We had this discussion on Twitter a couple days ago, before the letter for not news before they traded away their safety.
00:22:57
Their total was at five, and I loved that bet.
00:22:59
We both called it a lock at five.
00:23:02
You gotta dropping a full game.
00:23:04
I've gotta dropping a half game.
00:23:05
I don't I don't like it as much at, um, at 4 4.5.
00:23:10
Maybe because I don't see them winning five games, really? But I've got him at four and 12 this year.
00:23:17
Well, makes me nervous with a four or 4.
00:23:18
5 line, though, is somehow they do pick up an extra game and ah, your you just don't have much room to work with.
00:23:25
Four wins is not very money, but it's Ah, it's also a risky bet.
00:23:31
You know, when you're betting anything that low, it's the same thing I always see in baseball.
00:23:35
You know, any time you try and take like a in under 2.
00:23:37
5 runs line or whatever, it's just so easy to slip into, like slip into an extra run.
00:23:43
And then you lose that bet because the numbers so low.
00:23:45
So I'm nervous about that with the Jaguars now that it's no longer at five.
00:23:50
I absolutely loved to that five.
00:23:52
If you can find it at five, still take it.
00:23:54
But I doubt it's at five anywhere after the Leonard Fournette transactions and your might even see other players being sent off as we roll on here.
00:24:02
I don't really know who else they have to offer as far as like studs or anybody they could get anything for.
00:24:08
But don't be surprised.
00:24:09
We see one or two more Jacksonville players end up on the block.
00:24:15
Yeah, I mean, they just signed Joe Schobert to a big deal.
00:24:18
Maybe they shipped him out the door.
00:24:20
I doubt it, but we'll see.
00:24:22
But bet MGM should sponsor us because they're coming through yet again.
00:24:27
Let's talk him up.
00:24:28
They are the only book that has them at five.
00:24:31
So by all means under five minus 1 64 Hammer the under hop on and playing fly to New Jersey, enjoy Trenton for a day or whatever.
00:24:40
Throw some money down with that MGM, Um, unfortunately, even though it stayed at five, obviously the line did move because I believed they were under five in like the 1 30 range, And now, he said, it's in the one fifties somewhere, right? One 16 64.
00:24:57
Yeah, so that's I mean, that's still some juice, especially when you could get it for about 1 30 less than a week ago.
00:25:04
But if you didn't walk in the bed, which I'm sure most of us they have, not already.
00:25:09
You got to do with what you get now.
00:25:11
And unfortunately bad MGM, I think, is available in less states than Fanduel and draftkings.
00:25:17
I think they're only in, like, three states.
00:25:20
Ah, but anyways, if you if you do have the ability, definitely go over bet MGM, Zack said.
00:25:27
Talk him up.
00:25:28
I would love to talk him up.
00:25:29
They always have great promo, as they always have.
00:25:31
You know, I'm part of my taken stuff.
00:25:32
They had good deals with them.
00:25:34
Just I live in Wisconsin, don't have any access to use them.
00:25:37
But I do look at their app sometimes, as they do show you lines and everything and the NFL, especially over the course of the NFL season.
00:25:45
They have, like ridiculous props and ah, very favorable things.
00:25:50
Very favorable props for the better So check them out if you can, and check us out at MGM.
00:25:58
We can do it.
00:25:59
Doesn't matter where we live.
00:26:00
We'll talk.
00:26:01
You will say you are the exclusive book.
00:26:04
I I'll sell out for pretty much any price at this point.
00:26:07
Let's move on.
00:26:09
In New Jersey, I grew up a devil stand.
00:26:11
That's fine with me.
00:26:12
A a.
00:26:13
There we go. That's all we need.
00:26:15
Let's move on to the A F C South winners last year.
00:26:19
Did they end up beating the Texans out? I think so, Yeah, I believe they did.
00:26:24
Is close.
00:26:26
Tennessee Titans Obviously, Derrick Henry went on that historic run.
00:26:31
He was just destroying people.
00:26:32
They ended up finishing nine and seven, thanks to a switch.
00:26:36
A quarterback to Ryan Tannehill.
00:26:37
They extended him over under, You know, setting up the same type of season is that 8.
00:26:42
5 right now? And I am predicting the same season.
00:26:45
I haven't met nine and seven again.
00:26:47
This is a line that I think it's set pretty pretty much in the Bulls eye and I would rather avoid it.
00:26:54
But after, if I have to leave, lean one way or the other, it would be the over.
00:26:59
What about you? We're pretty much in agreement in most areas today.
00:27:05
I, however, would, I don't know.
00:27:08
Maybe just because I'm sick of taking so many overs as I've been looking through and think through.
00:27:13
I'm like, man, I've been given over almost every team and not all these teams can hit the over.
00:27:18
So the Titans this year, I am going to say, Ah, end up under 8.
00:27:23
5 if you could get a nine line.
00:27:25
I like that a lot better, but, um, you get ah cost one of seven payout.
00:27:30
I just don't think that Derrick Henry, even if he stays healthy all year, I don't think he's goingto be rushing or putting up 200 yards a game, every single game and one of those games like he did all playoffs long.
00:27:42
I think Ryan Tannehill is gonna have to do a lot more.
00:27:45
He's gonna have to be good, and they're going to have Teoh be more of a dynamic offense than just hand the ball to Derrick Henry for 16 weeks in a row.
00:27:54
I think that they aren't really that hard of a matchup for a few teams that they're playing as long as you can contain a Derrick Henry, you gotta make Ryan Tannehill make plays, make the ball, uh, making throw the ball downfield.
00:28:08
And I think that they're gonna be a decent matchup for teams like the Vikings, Bills, even the Browns.
00:28:14
I think the Lions have a chance of beating the steam.
00:28:16
Ah, sometimes the Titans just struggle on a week to week basis.
00:28:20
Obviously, you can't take everything from last year as they did switch from Marcus Mariota.
00:28:25
Tannehill Tannehill looked great up until the playoffs, and then he kind of disappeared.
00:28:29
Derrick Henry took over.
00:28:31
They're not gonna be able to have those ebbs and flows throughout the entire season if you're gonna want to hit the over bet.
00:28:37
So I'm not saying it with much confidence, But again, somebody's gonna have to hit the under eventually here.
00:28:43
So I'm going to say the Titans, I take a step back from their division winning glory last year from there.
00:28:51
Ah, heck of a run in the playoffs.
00:28:53
I mean, nobody's gonna say that that wasn't a great run in the playoffs, but, you know, can you do that again? over a 16 week season and then again through the playoffs? Not quite.
00:29:02
Not quite so sure.
00:29:03
So I'm gonna say they take a step back, kind of come back to reality, and I'm gonna go with the under here.
00:29:09
To your point, I think the Houston Texans air a really tough matchup for the Tennessee Titans.
00:29:16
You know, you can pick on the Texan secondary, but can the passing attack of the Titans do that? And again, Texans Offense is pretty good.
00:29:25
Uh, Times defense is fine.
00:29:27
I think the unsung hero of their defense last year was Logan Ryan.
00:29:32
Yet it down season some areas, but he still put up over 100 tackles.
00:29:37
As a cornerback, he was much better in the running game than people give him credit for.
00:29:42
Still a free agent.
00:29:43
So there's a chance they bring him back in.
00:29:46
Giants, I guess, are pursuing him.
00:29:48
We will see he should find a home pretty soon, But I think losing Logan Ryan is a big deal, even though I think he was just playing slot or ah, nickel corner majority of the time anyway.
00:30:01
Well, I, um it seems that I mentioned were just outside of their division.
00:30:07
I think that they dio tough matchups within the division except for maybe the Jaguars.
00:30:12
But I think obviously, like you just addressed the Texans.
00:30:16
Gonna be tough. They play them tough every single year.
00:30:18
And I don't think the Colts are gonna be a breeze by game, by any means for the Titans, either.
00:30:22
So could, ah, could end up losing a few more games.
00:30:27
And everybody expects that they will agreed.
00:30:31
And to your point about we keep talking about the overs and stuff.
00:30:35
I do have a tool.
00:30:36
So I do have my wind totals equal the correct amount.
00:30:40
Um, again, you know, I'm going to adjust.
00:30:42
I'm still, but I do have the trains at nine and seven again.
00:30:46
I had the Jaguars winning two games, though, so that kind of helps that out.
00:30:51
And you could be terrible and fall into three wins.
00:30:54
So I need to look at that little little bit more.
00:30:58
Half an hour to divisions, though.
00:31:01
Okay.
00:31:03
Lets go new.
00:31:04
We, uh, kind of flew through that one, but it again, like we've been talking so extensively in these videos.
00:31:09
Um, so go check out the previous ones.
00:31:13
You'd like more information on the entire air, NFC. Excuse me.
00:31:16
Um, might be able to do a little bit more of a deep dive in the next two a f C conferences, but it is fantasy football season.
00:31:24
And right now, drafts, you know, gotta take priority sometimes and again, I have 18 minutes now 17 minutes now to figure out who everybody's keeping in my league before our draft starts.
00:31:36
So, um, but thank you for tuning in everybody and hopefully make a little bit of money from what Zach and I just shared with you.
00:31:45
Absolutely.
00:31:46
Which Jake Luck in his fantasy draft.
00:31:48
He is going to go do that.
00:31:49
I'm going to end the stream and come right back on.
00:31:52
We're going to be talking a little bit of buccaneers for fantasy football.
00:31:56
I'm going to break down what Bruce Arians said about this backfield committee kind of diagnosis.
00:32:02
What this coach is actually saying, I think it's a lot clear than the rest of the media kind of giving it credit to.
00:32:09
So I will be right back.
00:32:10
Jake, good luck.
00:32:11
Have fun when you draft.
00:32:14
Thank you.
00:32:15
Thank you.

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