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00:00:00
I am joined by Scott from the breakdown.
00:00:03
Uh, he's gonna be assisting May with this PGA Championship 2020 Betting preview.
00:00:09
Gonna get started in a moment here.
00:00:11
I'm just taking a moment to go ahead and tweet out all of this information.
00:00:17
Uh, we have SportsCastr up that we're running on were also streaming on periscope that we thank everyone for joining us this week.
00:00:27
A zoo.
00:00:28
We get the chance to talk a little championship gulf.
00:00:31
Here, let me go ahead and share this.
00:00:38
Make sure you re tweet.
00:00:40
Absolutely.
00:00:41
We appreciate the support where you just service that allows us Teoh stream a multiple platforms so we can see all the comments in one place.
00:00:48
If you've got questions, pop up into the chap, feel free to tweet at Qatar, I on Twitter and will be able to check that out.
00:01:12
All right, so thanks everyone for joining in.
00:01:16
We are going live now.
00:01:18
So this is my first stream where we are talking golf for the breakdown.
00:01:22
I was fortunate enough to join the guys from unwrapped sports a few weeks ago.
00:01:26
I believe we're talking the three and opener Mom, we're talking memorial.
00:01:30
So that was really setting.
00:01:33
Um, I was on a podcast with most dogs, which is one of our wedding podcasts at the breakdown just last week or week before.
00:01:42
So that was exciting, but this is the first time doing a stream.
00:01:44
So I broke down my content a little bit differently this week, tweeted out my outright and my pop finishes, which is from the things that, uh, gotten tired talk about here.
00:01:54
But I also I'm doing an article with my full tournament match up.
00:01:58
And then we're doing the stream here that across everything I'll be ableto have you covered for everything that you need to get the PGA Championship this week.
00:02:09
So as I mentioned Scotch joining me in here that I got for stream with us.
00:02:14
Although he has contributed some articles on baseball betting Scott, you want take a quick moment to and introduce yourself to the viewers? Yeah, Thanks, Jordan.
00:02:26
Appreciate it.
00:02:27
Like he said, many of Scott Twitter handles.
00:02:30
Scottie does know.
00:02:31
So let me upon that sweater.
00:02:33
Give you follow a live, interactive people on their PS.
00:02:37
So it's first dream.
00:02:38
I'm excited, you know, young camera.
00:02:41
Uh, but I'm ready to get this going, Make some money this week announced, Go Absolutely So to start it off.
00:02:51
This is the PGA Championship typically played a lot earlier in the year, Um, with the new format, I believe we're looking at this tournament originally being played in either April or May, but it was then moved back as part of the way that they put the schedule up due to Kobe 19 and how the PGA tour about back and restarted everything after that.
00:03:16
P g A tour primarily a Eastern coast or East coast ornament, only been on the West Coast 10 times in the past 100 110 years.
00:03:26
This is the first time it's been in California, like 1/4 century I want It was like it was 95 that Riviere.
00:03:36
Um, other than that it was in Seattle 10 15 years ago, so it doesn't make a lot of trips out here.
00:03:43
This is Harding Park for Major that they're hoping, uh, they had the WGC Match play event here in 2015 and they had, um, another WGC the WGC MX in 2005 courses completely redesigned and that some of the first things that I'll run through.
00:04:03
Stuff Course is officially listed at on the PGA website 7360 you are.
00:04:12
So it's a part 70 that is important to note.
00:04:16
It is typically plays as a part of new one that played as a part 71 when it Woz on the match play event in 2015.
00:04:26
But the shorten it so you have more part boards they took, I believe two of the part 51 of the par fives and turned it into parts or ah, the green have been ripped out and replaced with breath.
00:04:40
Previously, this was polo, which you see very common on the West Coast, but they did go ahead and install bentgrass greens on this tournament.
00:04:50
Ben Craft is going to be, um, noteworthy for this course because there's not a lot of undulation, meaning the putting greens are very flat.
00:05:00
Overall, they will run pretty fast.
00:05:03
So if you're someone familiar with the stent meter, which is have a PGA measures, um, greens and the speed, we're probably looking at 12 birthers in here, so the least half, but there's not gonna be a lot of breaks and You also don't have a lot of two tier three year greens outside the last few holes on the course.
00:05:23
So far, putting goes as long as you're not one of work putters on tour, you should do pretty well.
00:05:30
Another note where they change for this course is that this is the They narrowed the fairways about 50%.
00:05:38
So typically, these fairways are 40 to 50 yards wide, and now we're looking at about 20 yard wide fairways.
00:05:45
So these air really, really narrow.
00:05:47
I'm like, um, any court that we really see on the tour, especially unlike any court that we see on the tour regularly.
00:05:55
So you gotta be very accurate off the teeth, but you don't have a lot of water going into play.
00:05:59
Yeah, the reason why you need that increased accuracy off the tee is the rough.
00:06:04
So the rough here has grown as a last thought on yesterday.
00:06:09
Sunday, it was over four inches.
00:06:12
So, Scott, if you've ever played also unsure, you have had some trouble getting out of rough.
00:06:17
But that's two, maybe three inches.
00:06:20
This is four inches.
00:06:22
This is going to be gnarly.
00:06:23
Lays, um, one of the guys who I follow on Twitter Harding, TPC Harding Park is actually a public golf course, so you can go there and play and they shut it down.
00:06:33
But two weeks ago to start preparing for this morning and he posted a photo of his ball that he hit into the rough and you couldn't see his ball.
00:06:43
And this was three weeks before they had really got it up the championship caliber.
00:06:48
Because when you have these majors championship caliber events, of course you want to strengthen it.
00:06:54
You want to make it a little bit harder play.
00:06:56
No more guys shooting minus 30 to win the tourney.
00:07:00
Um, we're probably looking at a course where we're gonna be looking at the winner between minus seven minus eight up to maybe minus 15.
00:07:09
A lot plays on the weather here I lived in was just go for about four years, so I'm very familiar with the weather.
00:07:17
There. The weather changes.
00:07:19
Um, a drop of a hat.
00:07:21
Um, I want to say it.
00:07:22
Woz, Frank Sinatra there someone who had a saying a long time ago that the coldest winter they ever had with summer and stuff and it is true.
00:07:33
San Francisco Shelly And for some of these golfers, especially some of our older golfers, we might like like Tiger Woods, not necessarily fans of planning cold.
00:07:43
So if they have those early morning tee times, they're going to be seeing often 55 degree weather with a little bit of wind.
00:07:49
That's not going to be very simple.
00:07:51
Um, weather won't get too hot.
00:07:53
People think of California is being a very hot and sunny place.
00:07:57
Francisco isn't necessarily that we're talking highs of maybe 65 high on Thursday, six before high on Friday is 64.
00:08:08
Over the weekend you got a little bit warmer 67 65 degrees.
00:08:12
But the key here is wind, um, important to note when looking at a tourney with playing inferences. Go.
00:08:19
Is this Web? Um, there's gonna be a drastic difference between guys teeing off in the morning and teeing off in the afternoon.
00:08:27
So in the morning on Thursday, you're kind of getting a little bit of sideways win.
00:08:31
Um, but it's only 56 miles an hour, so nothing terribly drafted the afternoon.
00:08:36
It's going to jump considerably by three PM Those guys working have the to P MP time, they're gonna be faced with 15 MPH cross winds, which, as someone who's got before, I don't like playing in a five mile an hour.
00:08:51
Crossman.
00:08:52
Never mind 15 miles whenever.
00:08:54
Now.
00:08:55
These are professional.
00:08:56
No, these are professional golfers, so sound like they're going to struggle immediately up that.
00:09:00
But they have accuracy issues with their driver.
00:09:04
Maybe there's someone like still, they can hit the ball a mile, but it kind of crazed in either direction.
00:09:09
It's not gonna be beneficial to them.
00:09:11
That added distance won't be worthless because we're gonna be playing out for inch rough for the air, trying to hit a seven iron out of there.
00:09:19
And you don't have the law that you might get the ball 50 yards.
00:09:22
If you're lucky Friday, you don't have as big a variant Friday.
00:09:27
The wind seems to be going a little bit more out morning. It's done.
00:09:31
Still be blowing a little sideways, um, 5 to 10 miles an hour in the afternoon.
00:09:36
You are getting from straight out when thou be not so, you'll get a little bit at a distance there for those guys who have the afternoon tee times on Friday.
00:09:46
So I were to target a particular player and I alternate Metro.
00:09:51
I'd look for someone with an AM tee time on Thursday and afternoon tea time.
00:09:56
On Friday, you can find tee times on the PGA Tour app.
00:09:59
Also, if you go the PGA Tour media guide at the bottom of their website, they have everything in PdF format.
00:10:05
That way, you're not scrolling through 500 pages.
00:10:08
It's all alphabetical, and it's listed by groups.
00:10:13
No, I got let go ahead, and, uh, before we get there soon the comments saying that Tiger got the morning afternoon, he did so that is pretty good for him.
00:10:26
Because he will be able to actually then, um, do pretty well, Thanks, Goose.
00:10:34
So that's good for him.
00:10:35
The problem is that cold, like he's let out their sense.
00:10:38
I believe you played its first around yesterday.
00:10:41
I'm possibly even on Sunday, so he's been out there, but he's just gotta adjust that cold.
00:10:48
That's something that we Yeah, it's gonna be real tight.
00:10:53
Absolute.
00:10:54
I watched the press conference with him today where he said that, um, his body, just his body knows it's championships.
00:11:01
Even you know, he said, the last couple of weeks is, uh, practices have become more intense.
00:11:07
He's not really trying to do anything.
00:11:09
He's a lot more focused, May said.
00:11:10
His body just knows that it's time for a major, which I thought was really great.
00:11:15
So we'll certainly talk.
00:11:16
Tiger, when we talk about our right here, the stuff you kind of want lead us into the outright winner for the PGA Championship.
00:11:25
20? Yes.
00:11:27
So taking a look at this list to top guys obviously have j t up there.
00:11:32
And Brooks they were going into Bryson, um, and Jon Rahm and then Rory.
00:11:38
It was a kind of your top top five right there.
00:11:42
Um, so, yeah, Jordan, what do you think about those top five? You like their? Um it's so I way, I bet golf.
00:11:51
I typically look for a little bit of value.
00:11:52
Last week was on the rare week where I back the guy at the top of the market actually back J t.
00:11:57
To win the WGC, and he won it.
00:12:00
It's the first time I've taken someone won the top five favorite players in a tournament since the reef there in a championship in a major like this, there's greater opportunity for those guys in the top of the board.
00:12:13
Twin Brooks kept guys, and at the killer, he shows up to the majors.
00:12:17
He's won the PGA Tour twice.
00:12:19
He's on the U. S.
00:12:20
Open twice.
00:12:21
Um, he's won this event the past two years in a row, so he's defending two time champion coming into San Francisco.
00:12:28
He was doing all the press stores yet commercials.
00:12:32
Nike, dropping to shoot for him, really excited to get out there has been talking a big game about how the big boys court You can't be shown up there with the short driver shot.
00:12:42
But more than that is the actor Brooke last week shows he can be accurate.
00:12:47
Brooks is one of the top players in the world.
00:12:50
Whether he plays like that on a week to week basis and not, uh, seems like it's up to Brooke at that point.
00:12:56
As far as my number, he ranks a little bit lower just because he's had issues keeping the ball in the fairway.
00:13:03
So that's one of the staff of them really looking at heavily is their weight gain So the top of the market, while certainly back him and I have them in full porn, went metric.
00:13:13
We can talk about.
00:13:14
He's not a bet for me at the top of the board.
00:13:16
JT actually ranked number one of my model.
00:13:19
JT's my favorite golfer out there right now.
00:13:21
He's the best with iron.
00:13:23
He gets a ton of birdie opportunities.
00:13:25
When he finds himself in the Rock, he somehow ends up on the green in regulation.
00:13:30
A tougher part, like the man gets him out of self out of trouble in any possible scenario, and he's ranked number one in the field in 123455 of the 10 statistical categories I'm looking at, So JC is a strong bet there, Um, you mentioned Bryson, Rahm and worry as the other three guys in the top of the market.
00:13:55
I'm not backing glory this week.
00:13:57
Words then, somewhat of a let them.
00:13:59
Since post Kobe is a former PGA Championship winner, he's one other majors.
00:14:05
He's on the best golfers in the world.
00:14:07
He naturally has a shot that worked well on this course because you have a lot of doglegs left, which means you have your T box and your fairway so tee box would be here.
00:14:17
Their ways up there here green is up here so up you kind of want to shoot in this direction.
00:14:24
That is the natural shot that worries you to shoot power drops so he shoots a shop that traditionally should work very well in court.
00:14:33
I'd love to see him do well.
00:14:35
I just haven't been able put a lot of stock in him doing well, just based off his recent born Jon Rahm.
00:14:42
For me, he doesn't do so well with his iron play, so that's a bit of a concern from a similar to Rory and Bryson.
00:14:49
They have a long drive shop.
00:14:51
They can be pretty accurate.
00:14:53
Rahm is actually the most accurate of those three guys, and also, but he's one of work putters.
00:15:00
I don't have any bets on any of these top five guys, but if any of them when I wouldn't be terribly surprised.
00:15:07
Looking at where the odds are right now, Brooke them JC or 10 1 Rory Bryson Rama.
00:15:14
14 to 1 gun to my head if I had to take one. Take J. T.
00:15:19
A.
00:15:21
10 to 1 right that hot and sometimes, yeah, and big thing with golf is, um then golf Betting is people say that someone can't win back to back tournaments.
00:15:30
I don't necessarily find that to be true.
00:15:32
I don't think that because j t.
00:15:34
One last week he's gonna take this week off.
00:15:36
It's a major.
00:15:37
If last week was a big torment, and then this week was a shift tournament and he is playing it.
00:15:42
Yeah, maybe he's not getting out of bed and quickly is not working on game as much between the round here between the tournament.
00:15:49
But this is a major.
00:15:50
It's not a run of the mill event that's going on.
00:15:53
He's getting up for this.
00:15:57
Oh, yeah, Cool.
00:15:59
Let's move on to this next kind of tear.
00:16:01
After those kind of big hitters up there, we have Sander, D J.
00:16:06
Patrick Cantlie, Webb Simpson calling.
00:16:10
Then we got Tiger Woods out of those guys.
00:16:13
Who you looking at value.
00:16:15
So Yeah, absolutely.
00:16:17
So I actually do have some that, uh, in this range.
00:16:20
I'm just pulling up my sheet here.
00:16:22
So you mentioned may go because numbers have moved, so I'm not necessarily I didn't get down at all of these prices.
00:16:31
So Zander, Dustin Webb can't lay Tiger and Colin more column.
00:16:36
So I have bet on Web and Morikawa.
00:16:40
Zander.
00:16:41
I think those obvious ridiculous is that 18 to 1, which puts them, as they assume, one of the top 5 to 10 golfers in the world.
00:16:50
I think one of the top 15 golfers, if you're giving me Xander at 28 or 30 I'm probably betting it. But Sandor 18.
00:16:58
I know it, bookmaker earlier this week, yesterday he was down to 13 to 1.
00:17:04
That's just someone who really liked them and put a ton of money on him to win outright.
00:17:08
I can't get down on him at that price.
00:17:10
I don't think that that is necessarily a good pressure D J.
00:17:15
He just showed he he's so hitter mess.
00:17:18
He's like a Brooks is like a brewery where they kind of come and go.
00:17:23
I hit on D J a few weeks ago with an L right, but I have not gone back to bed. D. J.
00:17:29
He's kind of let me down.
00:17:31
Um, d j, I believe, has had a tougher time finding the fairway than most of these other guys in the field.
00:17:37
When you look at his fairway accuracy, he's 100 deaths in the field out of about 100 for $9.
00:17:45
So that's not necessarily a good staff.
00:17:48
Can't lay ice in his veins, Mr Consistent.
00:17:51
I really like him, but that number is a little tough for me.
00:17:54
Um, at 25 I believe it is currently 25 to 1, so I don't necessarily have him there.
00:18:01
Tiger El Tigre.
00:18:02
You gotta love them.
00:18:04
It's a major.
00:18:05
Um, personally, for me, I would look a tiger in matchups and the torment versus taking him out.
00:18:10
Right? Maybe taken pop five.
00:18:13
Um, and you can get him around top five, top five.
00:18:19
You can probably get him around Plucked 400.
00:18:21
I think that's a good that if he wins outright, I will absolutely be there cheering alongside, rooting for the guy.
00:18:28
But I'm just not tying up my capital in him.
00:18:31
He doesn't rank too highly in my model just because my model takes a lot of recent form into place of Tiger actually fault outside of the top 20.
00:18:40
Um, in my numbers, as does Dustin Web, I have about on weather 28 to 1.
00:18:45
I love Web on the best putters on tour.
00:18:48
That's a great iron player.
00:18:50
He does well on part four.
00:18:52
Part fours.
00:18:53
Make up 12 of the 18 holes, but I really like Web there in Morikawa More Qala.
00:19:00
I'd play him at 30 to 1 or higher.
00:19:01
I got him at 35.
00:19:03
I love that number.
00:19:04
I think that 30 is probably the right number, maybe 29 28.
00:19:09
I don't necessarily see value there, but I think they're worth.
00:19:12
That's that could be made than Colin.
00:19:13
More Qala.
00:19:14
He is one of the two best iron players on tour right now.
00:19:18
Him and J. T.
00:19:19
Um, he won a few weeks ago and a playoff.
00:19:22
Steve, Bjt shows that he can hang with the big dogs, and this is only this is still considered his work a year.
00:19:29
I mean, the man is incredible.
00:19:30
He another angle to look at column work.
00:19:34
I was that he plays golf at Cal Berkeley, just across the Bay Bridge.
00:19:39
I actually lived in Berkeley my first year.
00:19:41
Ah, year and 1/2.
00:19:42
I lived in the Bay Area, so he's familiar with this court is the court that, um, it's the most sought after court in the Bay Area.
00:19:51
So this is where college teams are trying to practice trying to get their guys out the play, The more college definitely played the field.
00:19:58
He probably hasn't played this track with this type of rough that he is seeing this week.
00:20:07
Gotcha! Moving on after Tiger.
00:20:11
Looks like we got Daniel Berger and Jason Day at 33 to 1 on.
00:20:17
And then it kind of goes to this pork a range where guys like Tom a Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, Matthew six Patrick Matsuyama, Arnie Guys there that you like Gary Woodland.
00:20:31
Yeah, actually, this ranges where I picked out 123 golfers in the 40 to 50 to one range.
00:20:39
Um, I got burger when he was at 40 to 1.
00:20:44
Daniel Berger, the Ginger sensation.
00:20:47
The other Mr Consistent out there on the court this week.
00:20:51
There's three Mr Consistent him.
00:20:54
You got Tyrrell Hatton.
00:20:55
Um, who's now? At 40 to 1.
00:20:58
I got hatin at, uh 50 to 1.
00:21:01
You might be able to get those numbers.
00:21:03
Just go do a little shopping and I have woodland as well.
00:21:06
At 50 to 1, he's now 40 to 1.
00:21:09
Be about online.
00:21:12
These guys fit the profile.
00:21:13
What I'm looking for.
00:21:15
By and large, they can keep their tee shots straight, whether they have as much difference as Brighton and Worry and Brooks or not.
00:21:23
Well, they don't, but they're going to keep it a little bit straighter.
00:21:26
Um, they're decent putter to above average, but as long as you're not one of the worst hunters on tour, you'll do well.
00:21:34
They're decent with their wedges.
00:21:36
So if they do find themselves in the rough, these are the type of guys who I trust to be able to get out of the rough.
00:21:42
Um, if we're looking at like a weather angle, you know, maybe it starts raining that can randomly happen in the Bay Area.
00:21:49
Maybe the wind picks up a lot more a gallon to roll Hatton or Fleetwood who play in England.
00:21:55
They play in the UK a lot.
00:21:56
These air, their home, these air like their home courses.
00:21:59
This is like a May or in October or January in London, trying to play golf.
00:22:05
Um, so the there used to these conditions I think that they will play well for me.
00:22:13
Someone like Gary Woodland as when the other guys that is in the trench.
00:22:17
He is very boomer.
00:22:19
Bus Woodland is either going to win this tournament or he's barely gonna make the cut.
00:22:25
There doesn't seem to be a lot of wiggle room with his game, but I am betting on him to have one of better round a week.
00:22:33
He is great iron play.
00:22:34
Um, when they pull up my numbers here real quick, see where he ends.
00:22:43
Woodland comes in at 18 in my numbers is one of top 10 iron players.
00:22:47
He gains a lot of opportunities, meaning that he is putting for birdie or par, Um, more than the rest of the field.
00:22:56
He gained a lot of birdie opportunities.
00:22:57
He's good from the tea until it gets to the green.
00:23:01
One piece on that green, one of the top 10 others this season, and he's one of the top 50 bench graft putters over the last two years.
00:23:09
Those are a lot of things I'm looking at.
00:23:12
Woodlands had a little bit more struggles with this driver lately.
00:23:15
Aziz been testing a new driver for Wilson on the He isn't necessarily one of the best.
00:23:21
The wedge like around the Green Player, so that might be a little bit concerned.
00:23:25
And thats working off the rails.
00:23:27
If he can't keep his balls in the fairway, he's gonna struggle.
00:23:31
And in guys in this range, he's the one who struggled to keep it in the fairway.
00:23:37
You mentioned Ricki, I'm not going to talk about him.
00:23:39
All the slanders.
00:23:40
A poor guy.
00:23:42
He does have a cool looking moustache now that it seems like he's finally gotten whom other really cool clothing this season after years of them just looking like this weird mishmash of like Steal A and Nike? Um, Matthew Matthew Matthew Fitzpatrick is the number one partner on tour.
00:24:01
Right now.
00:24:02
He's got the hottest putter if he's able to hit his irons well and he can keep his ball straight off the tee, you will absolutely be in the running for the torment come Sunday.
00:24:13
But by and large, he's not someone who I'm putting money on just because the number for him is a lot shorter than what I would like.
00:24:21
I'd like to see Patrick at a 45 or 50 to 1, Probably where he opened the week.
00:24:27
But because this is a major, um, guys in the top of the board or taking a lot of heavy money so their odds are slipping a little bit more than you typically, but yeah.
00:24:42
And then, speaking of value, we keep getting more and more as we get down this list, we're starting to see guys, you know, like, uh, we got Philips 66 to 1.
00:24:54
Sergio 66.
00:24:56
Matt Kuchar at 82 1 Is there anything in that kind of range? Yeah, So I have.
00:25:04
I have one bet beyond 50 to 1.
00:25:06
I believe the I only have one.
00:25:08
It's Abraham answer.
00:25:09
At 66 1 he's actually jumped all the way down to 50 to 1.
00:25:14
So it seems like I got some pretty good value.
00:25:16
Their answer is the prototype of what I'm looking for in my numbers.
00:25:21
He ranked number six.
00:25:22
He's top 10 in his iron play.
00:25:25
He gained their way.
00:25:26
He's good off the tee.
00:25:28
Um, he does well in part boards.
00:25:30
He doesn't really have a true weakness in his game right now, and he's someone at a 51 price, So I still absolute jump on.
00:25:38
I play answer down to about 42 1 Mark.
00:25:41
Um, you mentioned Fell, not plan.
00:25:44
So, uh, you mentioned that future.
00:25:47
I actually do like Kuchar here, but it would be for, like, a top 20 type best, because he shows up well in these type of tournament.
00:25:54
But I'm not taking him to win it right.
00:25:56
I think that Matt Kuchar's chance of winning the tournament are very, very slim to none.
00:26:02
Um, I would say that still has almost a year percent chance of winning.
00:26:06
Um, I kind of think of from the other guys that you just named Sergio.
00:26:10
I really like the idea If I didn't already have all of my best lined up and I can't allocate a certain amount of money to different types of bets, surgery would absolutely be a bet from a, um, the way he's been playing lately.
00:26:25
He's done extremely well, But think would surgery that he falls into that one of the worst putters on tour category.
00:26:34
Yeah, over real quick.
00:26:37
Yeah, And if he and he is one of and it's somewhat of the stereotype among, um, golf me or that some of these European guys they could be a little bit more hot headed in Sergio, absolutely one of those players if he starts missing the re foot, but they're gonna be putter Slams didn't see.
00:26:56
I'm kind of talking clubs a little bit.
00:26:58
Will be kicking dirt if he ends up in the bunkers.
00:27:01
He isn't necessarily known for sportsmanship.
00:27:05
And for some guys were that life of firing him like, you know, Brooks or even Jon Rahm, that seems to really light a fire in there.
00:27:12
Asked as to playing better, Sergio seems crumble once he gets into its head.
00:27:18
Um, I have him as my number 24 on my model really quickly when they on the If he's one of the top 20 guys, I'd probably play him down to about 60.
00:27:31
He opened at 75 to 1, but it's 66 the one like I said about Colin Morikawa, 28 1 There certainly work that he could be making.
00:27:42
Beyond that.
00:27:43
I don't think there's a whole lot in the outright market because there's a major.
00:27:47
You're kind of going to see some guys talk playback.
00:27:51
It's not one of these random tornado in place with three m Open or something like that.
00:27:55
The John Deere Classic, where you kind of see these 100 to 1 80 to 1 pitch in majors.
00:28:00
You typically see guys the top 20 golfers in the world when these events.
00:28:05
Now some of the top 20 golfers in the world hasn't won a major yet.
00:28:08
And this is a good opportunity for them to do that here.
00:28:14
Yep.
00:28:17
Cool.
00:28:18
So let's shift years.
00:28:20
Uh, since you kind of don't outright market there, Are there any props that you like coming in this tournament? I know props.
00:28:28
We're kind of getting to be more popular.
00:28:30
Uh, Betty? Yeah, especially in golf.
00:28:34
Now there's majors.
00:28:35
You a couple different prop options.
00:28:36
So you have the whole in one prop.
00:28:38
People love that one.
00:28:39
Um, it's right around even money this week.
00:28:42
So if you're looking to throw a little bit of money on something and root for something fun, that's always a fun one.
00:28:48
Um, I think it's plus 1 10 to the yak minus one fifties and now.
00:28:53
But what I did see is that round one it's like plus 500 for the Yes.
00:28:59
If you're gonna bet a hole in one.
00:29:00
Just that around one home, one.
00:29:02
You can get it at five times better.
00:29:04
Odds didn't get over the course of the full tournament and tournament, especially Major.
00:29:10
It gets harder as the day goes on.
00:29:11
They put the pains and harder locations.
00:29:14
So Thursday is going to be the best opportunity for golfers to go ahead and hit that hole in one real quickly.
00:29:22
Just looking at the way the court breaks down.
00:29:23
You have one too.
00:29:25
You have four part threes.
00:29:27
Um, so that's really the only ones that are going to have the option to be ableto get a hole in one.
00:29:35
I mean, you have, ah, 330 yard par four, which, theoretically, a guy like Bryce and Rory would be able to hit it.
00:29:45
That part, but much, uh, Lester Odd.
00:29:50
But if there's going to be a hole in one, we're gonna see it on hole number three.
00:29:55
The part 3180 yards those air, the holes that we see people hit hole in ones on Abraham Abraham.
00:30:04
Answer had ah, home one on a part 3 200 a few weeks ago.
00:30:09
Um, I think Matthew Fitzpatrick had a hole in one a few weeks ago as well.
00:30:13
So if you're gonna bet the whole in one shift that the round one play that small odd, take the plus 500 on and hopefully receive something cool, go down on third.
00:30:23
This storm is gonna because it's a major.
00:30:25
We're gonna 12 3 hours coverage.
00:30:27
Um, Thursday and Friday.
00:30:29
Saturday is a little bit less, because with the cut, it won't be as long.
00:30:33
But we're going to see a lot of golf this weekend.
00:30:35
So if you're looking for something to root on that certain yet, Yeah, go ahead.
00:30:43
I know you mentioned that.
00:30:45
It's probably gonna be a close tournament here with how the course is playing.
00:30:50
So I know one prop that I see here is, well, playoff hole be needed.
00:30:56
That plus 500 then no, is our plus 500 for yes, and then minus 400 for note.
00:31:03
Is there any value thinking that Do you think there's gonna be a play? Awful.
00:31:07
I actually think the value which sounds crazy inside the values on no minus 400 because of the way the court breaks down So, um, I'm releasing my article later tonight, So anyone who's following along with this can check it out.
00:31:21
The laugh.
00:31:22
3 to 4 holes are some.
00:31:24
The last holds the hardest hole in the court because it is so challenging.
00:31:30
That is where it got its whole number.
00:31:33
18 on Sunday.
00:31:34
If two players are going into the 18th hole tied, here's how it breaks down with the scoring breakdown on hole number 18.
00:31:43
55% hit par 32 points.
00:31:47
The 33% bogey in 6% double bogey, 6% birdie.
00:31:52
So you have a large distribution between pars and bogeys.
00:31:57
So if you're going in tow, hold number 18 and it's closed.
00:32:01
It might not be closed after whole 18.
00:32:04
I think that there's some value on the no minus 400.
00:32:08
I did see it.
00:32:09
No, minus 3 75 miles.
00:32:12
3 50 I believe that was on my bookie.
00:32:15
Um, so do some shopping around on that if you are interested, I just don't see this being, um, a court this week where, given how difficult the rough is that we see a playful This was home to one of the most historic playoff 2005 John Daly and Tiger.
00:32:35
This is 5 10 years after John Daly's black major.
00:32:39
He had one kind of a cult for year, this point of big drinking guy walking down the course with a cigarette and McDonald's cup of Diet Coke.
00:32:50
But they went into a playful The playful lasted two holes because the second time they played 18.
00:32:56
Uh, once daily got to that green, he missed a two foot putt.
00:33:02
So this is where one would think where you don't need to be the greatest butter, but you need to be competent.
00:33:08
And he just I got caught up in the moment.
00:33:10
I think they're not being a crowd here.
00:33:12
Take that out a bit.
00:33:14
But I would be surprised.
00:33:15
Very surprised to see a play off here.
00:33:20
Got you.
00:33:21
Got you.
00:33:22
Definitely.
00:33:23
Look at that article later that he's gonna put out for more information on that.
00:33:28
Let's go to groups.
00:33:31
What? That That's another popular bet.
00:33:33
Uh, when we start off with the top Australian were some guys you like to finish from down under on top? Yes.
00:33:42
Uh oh.
00:33:44
This is a unique um, I like this region betting because typically you have wanted to got some pulled up here just so I can make sure I'm giving everyone their due credit.
00:33:56
And I've got the odds at what is still available at time of streaming that.
00:34:03
Give me a second bullet up here.
00:34:05
Top American to challenge too many guys.
00:34:07
Way too many guys.
00:34:09
Top Australian.
00:34:11
Up until now we've seen it's basically you're either getting Jason Day or Marc Leishman, those kind of your two guys you've been betting on but make their Adam Scott won the I don't know Top 20 golfers in the world isn't making his first appearance.
00:34:26
Post restart.
00:34:28
Um, here he has been not playing just because he lives.
00:34:34
He lives in Australia.
00:34:35
Um, he came over to the States like a month ago, and he's been surfing and he's been golfing like he's been having a good time.
00:34:42
He wasn't not playing due to injury or due to like health concerns during that.
00:34:48
That's kind of where I tended stretch straight off someone.
00:34:51
But in a rare occasion, you're getting Adam Scott not as the paper.
00:34:55
So Adam Scott plus 200 Aziz pop up show, and I love that his right number is a little bit higher, But would it be? I think it's like 50 to 1 was being his first tournament back.
00:35:08
I don't necessarily think he can go out there and win, but he's got compete.
00:35:11
Jason Days shown from riel renewed form over the last few tournaments but getting a chance to bet Adam Scott as the top Australian at plus 200 unless he misses the Cotton.
00:35:22
Is next year.
00:35:23
Tournament? Last time, we're gonna see him as he not the favorite as the top of studying.
00:35:29
So Adam Scott plus 200 pop Australian.
00:35:32
That's my bet. There.
00:35:37
Great value there.
00:35:39
Let's go load another region.
00:35:41
That's not America.
00:35:43
What about the top Englishman, who you like in that category there? So with Englishmen and, um, they you have two options you can do topping one.
00:35:52
You can do top Great Britain in England, which one? Thin all your Irish golfers as well.
00:35:58
So if you are, if you believe in Rory this week, um, then I would bet Rory as your top Great Britain and top England that plus 200 because I have a little bit doubt on worry.
00:36:11
I don't necessarily think he's gonna perform terribly.
00:36:13
I don't think that he's personally.
00:36:15
I don't feel that he's going to win this morning, so to give myself a little bit of the juice odds there, I'm looking at zero hatin at plus 7 50 real quickly.
00:36:27
Just a breakdown.
00:36:29
Hatton's form in 2020.
00:36:31
Let me pull that up in my members here.
00:36:33
He's been one of the top golfers this season.
00:36:35
He doesn't go out there and play every single tournament.
00:36:38
He hasn't played every tournament since restart, but he played, and not so in 2020.
00:36:43
He's played in 123 playing six tournaments.
00:36:47
He's been top 10 in five of them.
00:36:50
And in a six tournament, which was last week, the ST Jude he was 69.
00:36:56
Do I hear the theory on this? This is the PGA Tour conspiracy theory that hey, just didn't care last week with ST Jude.
00:37:06
There's no cut, so it's a guaranteed payday for everyone.
00:37:09
So when he started to perform terribly, there's no way of really shine off that one.
00:37:17
It seems like he just didn't really care.
00:37:19
He was.
00:37:20
He's lost a ton of stroke spotting.
00:37:21
You're missing a ton of pop lost almost four strokes on the greens there and he wasn't hitting his irons well.
00:37:27
And he's one of the best iron players on tour.
00:37:30
So General Hatton plus 7 50 for Top Great Britain.
00:37:34
Um talk, uh, tough, Great Britain Top Irish, their top English.
00:37:42
I really like him. We got Mark.
00:37:44
Bellevue just hopped in.
00:37:45
I had done the stream with him on the guy from unwrapped.
00:37:48
Or he says, Adam Scott Adams got at so the reason I actually even brought up Adam because because Mark A.
00:37:57
DME earlier this week earlier today and Mark said that he really likes having Scott.
00:38:02
You think course sets up well for him.
00:38:04
He thinks that's a great number to be able to get him.
00:38:07
So having already had a full outright card, I was looking for ways to get down on that and spot and I really like that plus 200 pop Australian, a little bit of value there with the tea Rohatyn that plus 50.
00:38:22
I think he's one of the I think he's the top five that in this tournament this torment, this course set up well for him on plus 7 50 for him to basically beat out Rory, basically what, you're looking at your taking a head to head off him versus worry, and you're getting 7 50 I take that that, you know, maybe lay 1/5 of the unit on it toe win, you know, 1.
00:38:46
5 minutes.
00:38:47
That's a great that right there.
00:38:48
And that's probably what I'll be locking in monthly.
00:38:51
Get off the stream, Jack.
00:38:54
You also see, uh, we had another comment. Come in.
00:38:58
Tom Lewis Flyer question.
00:39:01
So let may flip back over the seeing him here at 11 to 1.
00:39:08
Okay, so, yeah, so let's see where Louis winds up in mind numbers.
00:39:15
Lewis actually erect pretty well on the top 50 iron players.
00:39:20
Lewis's issue over the um past few months has been keeping the ball in the fairway, but he does have some pretty solid West play above average on the tour, in which, but so if he does find themselves in the rough there, I know he had a great showing last week with his iron play.
00:39:38
He's excellent.
00:39:40
I am player.
00:39:41
He's solid putter.
00:39:42
Um, at 11 to 1, that's a pretty solid bet there.
00:39:45
Um, I like that almost much like the T.
00:39:49
Rowe hatin.
00:39:50
But at 7 50 I'm gonna take zero hatin.
00:39:53
You can take top.
00:39:54
Englishman Lewis had 11 1 if you take him.
00:39:58
Uh, great Britain and England, You're getting 16 1 That's a great that I would bet that over the 11 toe one, um, top Englishman.
00:40:08
You have a lot of value in that CU next.
00:40:14
Let's go on to.
00:40:16
So over the top 20 finishers were some guys you like to finish in the top 20.
00:40:21
Yeah, the top 20 for me.
00:40:23
The chance to dig into those, you know, 80 to 100 to one odds guys for that right market and take them to place top 20.
00:40:32
So the, um the shortest odd.
00:40:37
The much chalky top 20 that I'm playing this week.
00:40:40
It's Abraham answer.
00:40:41
I got him at 66 1 in my outright and I got his top 20 at 260 plus, um, flipping back over real quick.
00:40:54
Do you have their current odds up right now? First appointed. Yeah.
00:40:59
Uh, Let's see here.
00:41:04
I'm seeing him at Abraham Heart Answer at Plus 2 25 Yeah, I make that bad answer.
00:41:12
I'll pull up his numbers here.
00:41:15
He's another one of those super consistent guys.
00:41:18
Um, I believe he had a real ****ty week last week, Uh, only, and it's getting top 15.
00:41:23
He ended up coming back around on the weekend, so he has had in 2020.
00:41:29
He had 123 or but he said six of his 10 events that he played in.
00:41:37
He's been in the top 20.
00:41:38
He any hasn't missed the cut, so his floor is very high.
00:41:42
Four. Top 50.
00:41:43
But his feeling is the number two at the Heritage.
00:41:48
He was number two at the iMac, so he can be on the top five times.
00:41:52
Offers out there at plus 2 25 2 plus 2 60 I think that is a great next guy.
00:41:59
A little bit further down.
00:42:01
Who's been impressing some people? Her A little bit of buzz about him.
00:42:05
One of the better names on tours head Reavy Um, Chad is 101 in the outright market.
00:42:14
I got his top 20 at about 400.
00:42:18
If he ranked number 15 to my model, he is, um I heard on a podcast that someone described him as a bunter as how short his driver shots are.
00:42:29
Um, s so I thought that was really funny.
00:42:33
But when he bunted, he keeps him a fair way so you can keep it in their way.
00:42:38
And then you can gain stroke with your irons on the approach.
00:42:41
That's the recipe for success here.
00:42:43
He's been top 20 in his last three tournaments.
00:42:46
Um, and he has another top 10 finish in 2020.
00:42:50
He's only missed one cut.
00:42:51
So another high floor by floor guy, he's going to do well, he he should make the cut.
00:42:58
Um, and he has a very, very good chance of being top 20.
00:43:01
So I really like Henry V.
00:43:03
One of the best iron player on tour right now.
00:43:06
And he's been above average putter, um, which you like to see the game.
00:43:10
A lot of opportunities.
00:43:11
So have chances to make birdies to score low in a tournament like this.
00:43:18
A little bit further down the road board ball bit, man like myself.
00:43:24
Kevin Streelman, another guy who's been getting a lot of buzz by the fact that he's also a 40 year old golfer like previous, just because this form lately has been very, very good.
00:43:35
I want top 50 ball strikers.
00:43:37
He gained fairway.
00:43:38
So keep it straight.
00:43:40
Um, he's great t degrees.
00:43:42
So from the time he's, uh, on the T all the way till he's about.
00:43:46
But he's one of top guys.
00:43:49
He isn't a great putter.
00:43:52
So he falls into the bottom two thirties, falls into the bottom third of the field and putting.
00:43:57
But that means awful.
00:44:00
Um, he's done a little bit better on this season than its historical putting.
00:44:05
So I got Shulman at plus 600.
00:44:09
What is he currently? Um, if you can do it for that, the still plus 600.
00:44:21
I love that.
00:44:22
That Ah guy who had been the top twenties last three tournament.
00:44:26
I really like Kevin Streelman at plus 600.
00:44:29
Um, last one I have, which is my longest shot.
00:44:33
Um, Mr 59 himself.
00:44:36
Jim Carrick.
00:44:37
Um, I another bunter He I think I drive the ball about as far as Jim Pierre does.
00:44:46
I think he's about to 50 off the tee, and that's about where I am not killing the ball by any means, but he keep it straight.
00:44:56
So I'm gonna pull up my, uh, Fairway statistics.
00:45:00
I believe Erick is number three.
00:45:03
Um, Derek this week played his first or this past week played his first event on the Champions Tour, which is for golfers 50 plus anyone.
00:45:12
So he's in good form. He's healthy.
00:45:14
Um, usually, health isn't really concerned.
00:45:16
He's one of the guys who tend to have a lot of injuries.
00:45:19
He's good with his irons.
00:45:21
He's a solid putter.
00:45:22
I mean, he has his lowest around.
00:45:24
He shot a 59 on a very challenging course, this course that both for, um, I don't think he's someone who's gonna go off the rails.
00:45:35
So he's someone who's consistent and there is a champ.
00:45:39
He gets in the top 20.
00:45:41
He hasn't been a top 20 guy this season by its Jim ferc.
00:45:45
Um, let's say he's plus not one.
00:45:49
Yeah, plus 900.
00:45:50
I mean, he was number two of the players last year.
00:45:54
Um, he was number for the window in 2018 and just trying to be kind of recent form where he's done pretty well.
00:46:03
Um, he is.
00:46:04
Another is a couple handful of top 20 finishes in 2019 so we only he's fallen off drastically.
00:46:11
Um, and I think this is a good opportunity for him at plus 900.
00:46:17
Their 0.
00:46:18
2 units on that, you know, get almost two full units back.
00:46:21
If he wins, that's a really solid bet at 900.
00:46:27
Yeah.
00:46:28
I mean, you didn't do anything crazy to finish in the top 20.
00:46:30
You just have to play.
00:46:31
His game has been doing yet.
00:46:33
You can't you can't blow holes.
00:46:36
Um, he's not someone who bogeys a lot.
00:46:39
He is a par golfer.
00:46:41
As long as the 1st 2 days he can stay under part to make the cut.
00:46:46
Children just roll through Saturday.
00:46:47
Hell broke.
00:46:48
There's some big he doesn't usually have.
00:46:49
Ah, blow up around where he goes, like six or seven over.
00:46:52
Part is normally anywhere from minus six under par.
00:46:57
Two like plus two.
00:46:59
I didn't accept that.
00:47:00
That someone who had plus 900 I'm happy that there's some money on.
00:47:05
Um, looks like we got a comment from Mark use asking about Tom Lewis Price.
00:47:11
Yeah, we were, um, leave.
00:47:13
Probably is right around 100 20 less.
00:47:15
That's what he is.
00:47:16
Teoh win outright 25 1 when we're talking about, Um those Thea Great Britain.
00:47:24
Yes.
00:47:25
Perfect.
00:47:28
So it looks like the last of it.
00:47:31
Do you like any round leaders make or miss cuts? Is there anything there that you think there's some value in? Yeah, Um, so around leader year, you've got a really look who can go low.
00:47:46
Um, so let me I'll pull it up here.
00:47:49
Um, for the first round, take a look at who? We got odds on that.
00:47:58
I mean, if you think that Brooks is gonna come out guns blazing.
00:48:02
Plus 2000 for Brooke.
00:48:04
Ah, win the first round at the top of the board.
00:48:07
He's the only player who I would even consider.
00:48:11
I wouldn't take anyone even breaks in.
00:48:13
I don't think that Bryson's driver has been straight enough lately for him to do extremely well.
00:48:20
I think that Brooke that plus 2000 for the first time, the leader is a great um for current that another guy who I can see kind of a little bit further down the board.
00:48:31
Who could do well, it's Padecky Matsuyama.
00:48:34
I'm historically very hard on Hideki.
00:48:38
He's an absolutely atrocious butter which has been but the thing is that he's only attraction this year.
00:48:46
Historically, he is not.
00:48:48
He's one of better iron players.
00:48:50
He goes lower than anyone.
00:48:52
He is the best wedge player on tour, not named Phil ****elson.
00:48:57
So when you have someone who is that comfortable with pledges in their hands, they have great, um, approach play and tee to green.
00:49:05
He's number two in the field.
00:49:08
Find it hard to pass him up.
00:49:09
Um, Padecky is plus 4000 to be your first time leader.
00:49:18
Those two guys towards the top that I would really take a hard look at, um, kind of grab someone in that next range kind of the 50 to 100.
00:49:28
That will be the only one that I'll cover.
00:49:34
All right, you gotta You gotta swallow the pill on this one.
00:49:38
Bubble walked in.
00:49:39
82 ones ate out.
00:49:41
You want talk about coming to shot is made for this court.
00:49:45
He's a left handed golfer.
00:49:47
So left handed golfer naturally hit drawings, right? So their shop tests to spray the left of that.
00:49:53
So he is the distance.
00:49:56
But he is considerably, considerably better with his irons on Someone like Philip, um as the other lefty out there.
00:50:04
Let me see how problem in putting an above average butter peas above the cut on that.
00:50:12
The issue is Bubba is his wedge play.
00:50:14
He sometimes looks like one of those due to If he swings his wedge too hard, it's going to get stuck into the ground because sometimes completely locked with the really short club, I mean, he's probably one that I think he's going to call cellphones from poor right now, so it makes sense that when he's dealing with a short of clubs seeking struggle a little bit, But if he can find a way to keep his ball in the fairway, Baba is absolutely live of the first round leader at 80 to 1000.
00:50:47
Um, on the other type prop that I will talk about, and I only saw this on my bookie I haven't seen anywhere else.
00:50:54
It falls under their top by region top player by region, and it's the top former winner.
00:51:02
So this looked at players who have previously one, um, the PGA Championship.
00:51:08
So in the field we have 367 We have 13 former PGA Tour PGA Championship winner the obvious one here for maize Brooks, you get Brooklyn plus T 50.
00:51:23
Basically, with this, you're taking a Brooks vs Justin there J t Justin Thomas head to head and you're getting Plus 2 50 The only two other guys who possibly conduce you extremely well, in my opinion, would be Rory Tiger worries plus 300 tires plus extended.
00:51:43
If you're looking for just any possible way to put the money down on Packer, this would deal with solid way to do it.
00:51:50
As you know, plus 600.
00:51:52
You throw down a couple, too little Caesars on that, you can win.
00:51:56
Should I play like 60? There? Looks like six with 12 levels.
00:52:01
You can win.
00:52:03
Not bad and turns the will season there.
00:52:05
Um, so if you're looking for a value Tiger bet, I think that is it.
00:52:10
Plus 600 as, um, the top former winner.
00:52:15
But my pick for that one is broke at plus 2 50 I see.
00:52:20
Everybody loves Tiger.
00:52:21
It's gonna be a popular pick definite with the out rights.
00:52:24
But if you're looking for some, if you don't think is gonna win the tournament, that's simply about you There absolutely so kind of last thing that I will talk about, um, on the street here.
00:52:36
And then if you have any questions there, there's anything wrong in from and comment for us to discuss.
00:52:42
We can take a look at that.
00:52:44
In my article, I detail four of my eight, um, full tournament had had matchup.
00:52:50
I left off four because four of them that I kind of watch out about a little bit on the stream.
00:52:55
Um, so the 1st 1 is one that is the most funny to me.
00:52:59
This Jason Duffner versus Kurt coaching Kochiyama, which I'm gonna have to pull up.
00:53:07
I don't even know books are still taking bets on this because this is just one of occasions where if you were paying attention early in the week, you got a great number.
00:53:18
So the way that they set the whole tournament matchup your grouped around players who they're outright numbers are similar to yours.
00:53:26
So Jason Duffner, who is the tour professional and he's keep one Ah, a major about 100 years ago is matched up against Kurt cutting to Yama, which honestly, before last week, when he was the lowest ranked player in the field at the WGC.
00:53:45
I had not heard of him before.
00:53:47
I got Duffner at it minus 1 15 money line.
00:53:52
It's up from minus 1 70 I saw it today at minus 1 85 There's almost a minus 200 paper in a head to head matchup against the golfer who, theoretically, the books thought were what? The coin flip? Because the game of the all matchups opened minus 1 10 on either side.
00:54:11
So to see him go from, you know, I got it at 1 15 all the way up to 1 85 and then it's now settled around 1 70 That one was really funny.
00:54:22
There's no value inmate putting that in my article because I probably wouldn't play a minus 1 80 but it might 1 15 You're sure **** that I'm about that, um, in my numbers.
00:54:33
I'm gonna pull that up real quick.
00:54:35
I think I had a doctor like, definitely number 49.
00:54:39
And Katayama is number 161.
00:54:44
So I have 100 and 20 golfers in between where I have Jason Duffner and Kurt Kochiyama.
00:54:52
So that's the 1st 1 that I want to discuss.
00:54:56
Um, I do have a Eric, both corn and matchup.
00:54:59
So check out my article for that.
00:55:00
I have a Brook full tournament.
00:55:03
Hibbert's Rahm to check out the article for the right up.
00:55:06
On that, I have Michael Thomas Thompson start vs JC posting.
00:55:12
For some reason, Michael Thompson is a dog in this one.
00:55:15
I've got plus 1 20 on the money line, Um, on that online.
00:55:20
Right now he is plus 1 12 on the money line.
00:55:26
He's a dog.
00:55:27
I don't get it.
00:55:28
He is a better golfer than JC posted, uh, any possible way that you look at it from a postman ranks 90.
00:55:36
My numbers.
00:55:38
Thompson ring 71.
00:55:41
Thompson's day was iron as long as he can keep the ball make their way.
00:55:45
And he his issue is his shipping is terrible.
00:55:49
Once he keeps it in the fairway, he hits those greens and regulation.
00:55:53
He's gonna do well.
00:55:54
JC posted one of the worst iron players he won.
00:55:58
The player scored the highest on tour.
00:56:01
Andi doesn't do very great on par.
00:56:03
Fours overall.
00:56:04
Especially long depart, for there's a lot of angles to attack posts and in this one and getting Michael Thompson at plus 1 20 when theoretically they should be a coin foot.
00:56:15
I'm absolutely taking that.
00:56:19
Uh, she's Revie.
00:56:21
I detail that my article.
00:56:22
I have him over Billy Horschel plus 1 15 I talk about Tyrell Hatton.
00:56:30
I'm laying the stroke there so minus 1.
00:56:32
5 over speed at plus 1 20 So that the great that, um, I have two more than you talk about Cameron Tringali, who's been one of the darlings of my eyes, supposed to restart Great Iron Player.
00:56:48
That's what I'm all about.
00:56:49
These guys and the good iron they can hit the fairways.
00:56:52
Cameron Tringali minus 1.
00:56:54
5 stroke over Troy Merritt.
00:56:57
I don't necessarily think that tort in there is a terrible golfer.
00:57:00
I just think that the chance of him not making the cut it is very good when you are doing for 20 matchups.
00:57:08
The strategy that I tried Teoh approaches from is betting against the guy who I don't think will make the cut when you're opponent doesn't make the cut Automatic W my golfer.
00:57:20
Can they go plus 9 +99 over the next two rounds Doesn't matter because he made the cut So it's an automatic turned dolly.
00:57:29
Ranks as 51 in my model, and Troy Merritt actually rank bottom 10.
00:57:35
He's number 141.
00:57:37
That Iron Player.
00:57:39
He doesn't do well off the tee.
00:57:41
He doesn't get a lot stroke.
00:57:43
He's arable with his wedges.
00:57:45
It's not gonna part board.
00:57:47
Basically, everything about this course is terrible.
00:57:49
Per Troy Merritt.
00:57:50
I say that he's probably getting a top 10. Finished.
00:57:53
I'm gonna punch myself in the face.
00:57:55
Um, but as of right now, I'm happy to take camera.
00:57:59
Turn golly minus 1.
00:58:00
5 stroke at plus 1 20 over trying There.
00:58:05
Uh, last one that I will detail hair is the gender sensation himself.
00:58:11
Daniel Berger minus 1.
00:58:12
5 stroke over Rickie Fowler Burger and made some news three weeks ago.
00:58:19
Everyone was all over him for for years.
00:58:22
The memorial Any Mr Cut It is only missed cut of the season, I think Onley non top 10 finish on the season until we got to the WGC last week and he's going into Rickie Fowler.
00:58:35
I have that luck money plus 1 15 I think Ricky's playing better.
00:58:41
I just don't trust that he's going to take you.
00:58:45
Um, I have Ricky as of the year.
00:58:49
My numbers looking remember? 50.
00:58:54
And I have, uh, Daniel Berger at I think burgers number two.
00:59:00
In my number.
00:59:03
Yes, Burgers and protect.
00:59:04
So he just does the things on this course that I think will matter a lot better than I don't.
00:59:11
I'm not fading, Ricky across the board.
00:59:13
This is probably the only thing I will bet against him on.
00:59:17
I'm not going to let him commit cut.
00:59:19
I just think that these two golfers at what should be a coin flip because they were both around 40 to 1.
00:59:25
They're both now around 35 to 1.
00:59:27
I think that Daniel burgers feeling is considerably higher than Rickie Fowler.
00:59:38
That's all I got.
00:59:41
Yeah, I mean, we covered a lot.
00:59:42
A lot of great pics like value.
00:59:44
There should be a world play tournament.
00:59:48
I'm inside of watch.
00:59:49
Can't wait. Yeah, yeah.
00:59:51
And what good is because it is the West Coast.
00:59:53
For now, we're gonna get primetime fault.
00:59:55
I mean, we're gonna have that.
00:59:57
You have the afternoon tea.
00:59:59
Time is two PM local.
01:00:01
So that 4 p.m. Eastern.
01:00:03
We're gonna have whether CBS Golf Channel, NBC.
01:00:07
Who knows covering it in the evening.
01:00:10
We're actually gonna be ableto sit at home, have some beers, watch these golfers.
01:00:15
And some of the bigger matchups are set up on Thursday and Friday.
01:00:19
Um, bigger than golfers were set up in the features matchup in the afternoon.
01:00:25
So we're in store for a good one.
01:00:27
That's the first major of the season.
01:00:29
So excited to finally get the chance to talk about Major.
01:00:33
Um, yeah.
01:00:34
To see where this one goes right now.
01:00:36
Um, as far as my bedding goes, they haven't released the round one matchup.
01:00:41
But I'm going back 10 units that I've got out at play right now among my outright.
01:00:47
I have little bit less than one unit total.
01:00:49
I stayed up all of those to win five or six.
01:00:52
My top twenties.
01:00:54
I have just about one unit at risk.
01:00:57
I have all of those two in one unit and then my matchups up where I really go crazy.
01:01:03
I have eight matchup.
01:01:04
Um, full tornado for a total unit.
01:01:07
So I'll throw, uh, the Adam Scott bet on their author appear all hatin.
01:01:13
I'll give a little hat tip to full goose and mark with Tom Lewis.
01:01:20
And I'll take Tom Lewis a swell throw a little money on that.
01:01:24
You know, maybe you can surprise us there.
01:01:26
Um, but that's all that I have.
01:01:27
Not anything that you care to plug baseball back in season now.
01:01:32
Anything in the work for you? Whether betting.
01:01:35
Um, I know you are a card collector.
01:01:38
Been seeing all your stuff on Twitter about that, I think.
01:01:42
In the works.
01:01:43
Yeah.
01:01:44
I'll give you a little, uh, card collector plug, shout to the hobby, but, uh, I don't know if you can see my screen.
01:01:51
I can get this.
01:01:57
Uh, look at that.
01:02:01
Well, Tiger Woods.
01:02:02
Yeah.
01:02:03
They, uh, be a man.
01:02:07
Always crazy right now.
01:02:10
Card games going wild with sports coming back.
01:02:14
I kept nuggets fans, so I casually have been collecting a bull bull.
01:02:22
Do you know who he was for a while, And then he had I think I was like, don't double in his first exhibition game.
01:02:30
Yeah, the prices on his card.
01:02:33
10 x kind of thing.
01:02:35
Yeah, the hobbies been picking up because Gary v right have been ah, profile a lot more lately, You're starting to see a lot of high profile or people large following outside of sports.
01:02:51
Kind of get into I'm card collecting.
01:02:54
I think Steve Aoki have, uh, Michael Jordan rookie card like a grated one.
01:03:02
Like putting on his instagram.
01:03:04
So, yeah, it's starting to really expand out retail audience that it never reached before.
01:03:12
Yeah.
01:03:13
No, that's really Well, I don't know if I had ever shared this with you, but growing up my father, the collector, more memorabilia than card.
01:03:20
Um, we put a lot of money into memorabilia, so I have tons of find autographs.
01:03:25
I have, like Mohammed Ali, one of my favorite ones.
01:03:29
I have much mankind game used, bat.
01:03:32
Um, I have Jim Brown.
01:03:35
That's cool. One pick up test.
01:03:37
Um, yeah, I love that one.
01:03:40
But my dad, growing when he was younger, had started.
01:03:44
Got a card clocking.
01:03:46
My dad, you know, is my dad's age.
01:03:48
Um, so when card collecting was, like, really at its peak.
01:03:51
So my dad in the eighties had a set that he sold his collection for over $10,000 because he had a get it Roberto Clemente rookie card and he has since gotten to Roberto Clemente. Rookie card.
01:04:06
I was with him when he got one in, like, 96 or 97.
01:04:09
He paid a few $1000 port.
01:04:11
Um, at in.
01:04:13
We used to go to a car collector.
01:04:15
Events on autograph signings.
01:04:17
Any picked one up there, and he flipped that for 12 K so, Yeah, I've always been around it, but I over the last year last month, I've seen it really pick up a lot more.
01:04:29
So it's cool.
01:04:31
We bring actually a lot traffic to our website from card collecting.
01:04:35
I'm certainly looking forward to anything that you can get out with that common.
01:04:39
And I know you are tied into baseball bedding, so I'm certainly looking forward to that.
01:04:44
Um make sure to follow Scott.
01:04:46
He has his twitter handle in his name.
01:04:50
There does no Follow me.
01:04:54
The up footer at Gordon von Denham, the breakdown of still in Twitter jail.
01:04:58
We're now two months in Twitter jail.
01:05:01
I think this is my longest sentence I've ever lived.
01:05:05
Um, so kind of sucks, but we're still doing well.
01:05:08
Website still rolling.
01:05:09
We're still pinot content.
01:05:10
Golf course set a soccer baseball we got you covered.
01:05:15
Fancy football.
01:05:16
Jeff has been doing a lot there.
01:05:18
Please check out the website www dot the breakdown sports dot com.
01:05:23
We have the banner roll across the bottom screen, full time about a merch store head over there.
01:05:29
You can check out from that.
01:05:31
But otherwise, that's all I got.
01:05:32
So enjoy the rest of the evening.
01:05:34
I will post this article.
01:05:36
Um, I will post the video in my article.
01:05:39
So if you want a chance to check out either of those that will be linked together that way you can go ahead.
01:05:45
And because while you're reading three in your mind, it's got a sweet voice.
01:05:49
Um, at least through that.
01:05:50
Like your bet.
01:05:51
So first, he is 7 a.
01:05:54
m.
01:05:55
on Pacific time on Thursday, But make sure to get all your full tournament that's in before that time.
01:06:02
Anything out from you? Nope.
01:06:05
Sounds good, man. Appreciate it.
01:06:07
After let go on behalf of myself and Scott, I am signing off here.
01:06:11
Uh, with the breakdown for two jw Jordan Whitney a k.
01:06:16
Gordon von Denham, I'd go ahead and signing off this
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PGA Championship 2020 - Betting Preview Presented by theBRKDWN

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Aug 4, 2020
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Jordan W @GordonVonDenim

Transcript hideup

00:00:00
I am joined by Scott from the breakdown.
00:00:03
Uh, he's gonna be assisting May with this PGA Championship 2020 Betting preview.
00:00:09
Gonna get started in a moment here.
00:00:11
I'm just taking a moment to go ahead and tweet out all of this information.
00:00:17
Uh, we have SportsCastr up that we're running on were also streaming on periscope that we thank everyone for joining us this week.
00:00:27
A zoo.
00:00:28
We get the chance to talk a little championship gulf.
00:00:31
Here, let me go ahead and share this.
00:00:38
Make sure you re tweet.
00:00:40
Absolutely.
00:00:41
We appreciate the support where you just service that allows us Teoh stream a multiple platforms so we can see all the comments in one place.
00:00:48
If you've got questions, pop up into the chap, feel free to tweet at Qatar, I on Twitter and will be able to check that out.
00:01:12
All right, so thanks everyone for joining in.
00:01:16
We are going live now.
00:01:18
So this is my first stream where we are talking golf for the breakdown.
00:01:22
I was fortunate enough to join the guys from unwrapped sports a few weeks ago.
00:01:26
I believe we're talking the three and opener Mom, we're talking memorial.
00:01:30
So that was really setting.
00:01:33
Um, I was on a podcast with most dogs, which is one of our wedding podcasts at the breakdown just last week or week before.
00:01:42
So that was exciting, but this is the first time doing a stream.
00:01:44
So I broke down my content a little bit differently this week, tweeted out my outright and my pop finishes, which is from the things that, uh, gotten tired talk about here.
00:01:54
But I also I'm doing an article with my full tournament match up.
00:01:58
And then we're doing the stream here that across everything I'll be ableto have you covered for everything that you need to get the PGA Championship this week.
00:02:09
So as I mentioned Scotch joining me in here that I got for stream with us.
00:02:14
Although he has contributed some articles on baseball betting Scott, you want take a quick moment to and introduce yourself to the viewers? Yeah, Thanks, Jordan.
00:02:26
Appreciate it.
00:02:27
Like he said, many of Scott Twitter handles.
00:02:30
Scottie does know.
00:02:31
So let me upon that sweater.
00:02:33
Give you follow a live, interactive people on their PS.
00:02:37
So it's first dream.
00:02:38
I'm excited, you know, young camera.
00:02:41
Uh, but I'm ready to get this going, Make some money this week announced, Go Absolutely So to start it off.
00:02:51
This is the PGA Championship typically played a lot earlier in the year, Um, with the new format, I believe we're looking at this tournament originally being played in either April or May, but it was then moved back as part of the way that they put the schedule up due to Kobe 19 and how the PGA tour about back and restarted everything after that.
00:03:16
P g A tour primarily a Eastern coast or East coast ornament, only been on the West Coast 10 times in the past 100 110 years.
00:03:26
This is the first time it's been in California, like 1/4 century I want It was like it was 95 that Riviere.
00:03:36
Um, other than that it was in Seattle 10 15 years ago, so it doesn't make a lot of trips out here.
00:03:43
This is Harding Park for Major that they're hoping, uh, they had the WGC Match play event here in 2015 and they had, um, another WGC the WGC MX in 2005 courses completely redesigned and that some of the first things that I'll run through.
00:04:03
Stuff Course is officially listed at on the PGA website 7360 you are.
00:04:12
So it's a part 70 that is important to note.
00:04:16
It is typically plays as a part of new one that played as a part 71 when it Woz on the match play event in 2015.
00:04:26
But the shorten it so you have more part boards they took, I believe two of the part 51 of the par fives and turned it into parts or ah, the green have been ripped out and replaced with breath.
00:04:40
Previously, this was polo, which you see very common on the West Coast, but they did go ahead and install bentgrass greens on this tournament.
00:04:50
Ben Craft is going to be, um, noteworthy for this course because there's not a lot of undulation, meaning the putting greens are very flat.
00:05:00
Overall, they will run pretty fast.
00:05:03
So if you're someone familiar with the stent meter, which is have a PGA measures, um, greens and the speed, we're probably looking at 12 birthers in here, so the least half, but there's not gonna be a lot of breaks and You also don't have a lot of two tier three year greens outside the last few holes on the course.
00:05:23
So far, putting goes as long as you're not one of work putters on tour, you should do pretty well.
00:05:30
Another note where they change for this course is that this is the They narrowed the fairways about 50%.
00:05:38
So typically, these fairways are 40 to 50 yards wide, and now we're looking at about 20 yard wide fairways.
00:05:45
So these air really, really narrow.
00:05:47
I'm like, um, any court that we really see on the tour, especially unlike any court that we see on the tour regularly.
00:05:55
So you gotta be very accurate off the teeth, but you don't have a lot of water going into play.
00:05:59
Yeah, the reason why you need that increased accuracy off the tee is the rough.
00:06:04
So the rough here has grown as a last thought on yesterday.
00:06:09
Sunday, it was over four inches.
00:06:12
So, Scott, if you've ever played also unsure, you have had some trouble getting out of rough.
00:06:17
But that's two, maybe three inches.
00:06:20
This is four inches.
00:06:22
This is going to be gnarly.
00:06:23
Lays, um, one of the guys who I follow on Twitter Harding, TPC Harding Park is actually a public golf course, so you can go there and play and they shut it down.
00:06:33
But two weeks ago to start preparing for this morning and he posted a photo of his ball that he hit into the rough and you couldn't see his ball.
00:06:43
And this was three weeks before they had really got it up the championship caliber.
00:06:48
Because when you have these majors championship caliber events, of course you want to strengthen it.
00:06:54
You want to make it a little bit harder play.
00:06:56
No more guys shooting minus 30 to win the tourney.
00:07:00
Um, we're probably looking at a course where we're gonna be looking at the winner between minus seven minus eight up to maybe minus 15.
00:07:09
A lot plays on the weather here I lived in was just go for about four years, so I'm very familiar with the weather.
00:07:17
There. The weather changes.
00:07:19
Um, a drop of a hat.
00:07:21
Um, I want to say it.
00:07:22
Woz, Frank Sinatra there someone who had a saying a long time ago that the coldest winter they ever had with summer and stuff and it is true.
00:07:33
San Francisco Shelly And for some of these golfers, especially some of our older golfers, we might like like Tiger Woods, not necessarily fans of planning cold.
00:07:43
So if they have those early morning tee times, they're going to be seeing often 55 degree weather with a little bit of wind.
00:07:49
That's not going to be very simple.
00:07:51
Um, weather won't get too hot.
00:07:53
People think of California is being a very hot and sunny place.
00:07:57
Francisco isn't necessarily that we're talking highs of maybe 65 high on Thursday, six before high on Friday is 64.
00:08:08
Over the weekend you got a little bit warmer 67 65 degrees.
00:08:12
But the key here is wind, um, important to note when looking at a tourney with playing inferences. Go.
00:08:19
Is this Web? Um, there's gonna be a drastic difference between guys teeing off in the morning and teeing off in the afternoon.
00:08:27
So in the morning on Thursday, you're kind of getting a little bit of sideways win.
00:08:31
Um, but it's only 56 miles an hour, so nothing terribly drafted the afternoon.
00:08:36
It's going to jump considerably by three PM Those guys working have the to P MP time, they're gonna be faced with 15 MPH cross winds, which, as someone who's got before, I don't like playing in a five mile an hour.
00:08:51
Crossman.
00:08:52
Never mind 15 miles whenever.
00:08:54
Now.
00:08:55
These are professional.
00:08:56
No, these are professional golfers, so sound like they're going to struggle immediately up that.
00:09:00
But they have accuracy issues with their driver.
00:09:04
Maybe there's someone like still, they can hit the ball a mile, but it kind of crazed in either direction.
00:09:09
It's not gonna be beneficial to them.
00:09:11
That added distance won't be worthless because we're gonna be playing out for inch rough for the air, trying to hit a seven iron out of there.
00:09:19
And you don't have the law that you might get the ball 50 yards.
00:09:22
If you're lucky Friday, you don't have as big a variant Friday.
00:09:27
The wind seems to be going a little bit more out morning. It's done.
00:09:31
Still be blowing a little sideways, um, 5 to 10 miles an hour in the afternoon.
00:09:36
You are getting from straight out when thou be not so, you'll get a little bit at a distance there for those guys who have the afternoon tee times on Friday.
00:09:46
So I were to target a particular player and I alternate Metro.
00:09:51
I'd look for someone with an AM tee time on Thursday and afternoon tea time.
00:09:56
On Friday, you can find tee times on the PGA Tour app.
00:09:59
Also, if you go the PGA Tour media guide at the bottom of their website, they have everything in PdF format.
00:10:05
That way, you're not scrolling through 500 pages.
00:10:08
It's all alphabetical, and it's listed by groups.
00:10:13
No, I got let go ahead, and, uh, before we get there soon the comments saying that Tiger got the morning afternoon, he did so that is pretty good for him.
00:10:26
Because he will be able to actually then, um, do pretty well, Thanks, Goose.
00:10:34
So that's good for him.
00:10:35
The problem is that cold, like he's let out their sense.
00:10:38
I believe you played its first around yesterday.
00:10:41
I'm possibly even on Sunday, so he's been out there, but he's just gotta adjust that cold.
00:10:48
That's something that we Yeah, it's gonna be real tight.
00:10:53
Absolute.
00:10:54
I watched the press conference with him today where he said that, um, his body, just his body knows it's championships.
00:11:01
Even you know, he said, the last couple of weeks is, uh, practices have become more intense.
00:11:07
He's not really trying to do anything.
00:11:09
He's a lot more focused, May said.
00:11:10
His body just knows that it's time for a major, which I thought was really great.
00:11:15
So we'll certainly talk.
00:11:16
Tiger, when we talk about our right here, the stuff you kind of want lead us into the outright winner for the PGA Championship.
00:11:25
20? Yes.
00:11:27
So taking a look at this list to top guys obviously have j t up there.
00:11:32
And Brooks they were going into Bryson, um, and Jon Rahm and then Rory.
00:11:38
It was a kind of your top top five right there.
00:11:42
Um, so, yeah, Jordan, what do you think about those top five? You like their? Um it's so I way, I bet golf.
00:11:51
I typically look for a little bit of value.
00:11:52
Last week was on the rare week where I back the guy at the top of the market actually back J t.
00:11:57
To win the WGC, and he won it.
00:12:00
It's the first time I've taken someone won the top five favorite players in a tournament since the reef there in a championship in a major like this, there's greater opportunity for those guys in the top of the board.
00:12:13
Twin Brooks kept guys, and at the killer, he shows up to the majors.
00:12:17
He's won the PGA Tour twice.
00:12:19
He's on the U. S.
00:12:20
Open twice.
00:12:21
Um, he's won this event the past two years in a row, so he's defending two time champion coming into San Francisco.
00:12:28
He was doing all the press stores yet commercials.
00:12:32
Nike, dropping to shoot for him, really excited to get out there has been talking a big game about how the big boys court You can't be shown up there with the short driver shot.
00:12:42
But more than that is the actor Brooke last week shows he can be accurate.
00:12:47
Brooks is one of the top players in the world.
00:12:50
Whether he plays like that on a week to week basis and not, uh, seems like it's up to Brooke at that point.
00:12:56
As far as my number, he ranks a little bit lower just because he's had issues keeping the ball in the fairway.
00:13:03
So that's one of the staff of them really looking at heavily is their weight gain So the top of the market, while certainly back him and I have them in full porn, went metric.
00:13:13
We can talk about.
00:13:14
He's not a bet for me at the top of the board.
00:13:16
JT actually ranked number one of my model.
00:13:19
JT's my favorite golfer out there right now.
00:13:21
He's the best with iron.
00:13:23
He gets a ton of birdie opportunities.
00:13:25
When he finds himself in the Rock, he somehow ends up on the green in regulation.
00:13:30
A tougher part, like the man gets him out of self out of trouble in any possible scenario, and he's ranked number one in the field in 123455 of the 10 statistical categories I'm looking at, So JC is a strong bet there, Um, you mentioned Bryson, Rahm and worry as the other three guys in the top of the market.
00:13:55
I'm not backing glory this week.
00:13:57
Words then, somewhat of a let them.
00:13:59
Since post Kobe is a former PGA Championship winner, he's one other majors.
00:14:05
He's on the best golfers in the world.
00:14:07
He naturally has a shot that worked well on this course because you have a lot of doglegs left, which means you have your T box and your fairway so tee box would be here.
00:14:17
Their ways up there here green is up here so up you kind of want to shoot in this direction.
00:14:24
That is the natural shot that worries you to shoot power drops so he shoots a shop that traditionally should work very well in court.
00:14:33
I'd love to see him do well.
00:14:35
I just haven't been able put a lot of stock in him doing well, just based off his recent born Jon Rahm.
00:14:42
For me, he doesn't do so well with his iron play, so that's a bit of a concern from a similar to Rory and Bryson.
00:14:49
They have a long drive shop.
00:14:51
They can be pretty accurate.
00:14:53
Rahm is actually the most accurate of those three guys, and also, but he's one of work putters.
00:15:00
I don't have any bets on any of these top five guys, but if any of them when I wouldn't be terribly surprised.
00:15:07
Looking at where the odds are right now, Brooke them JC or 10 1 Rory Bryson Rama.
00:15:14
14 to 1 gun to my head if I had to take one. Take J. T.
00:15:19
A.
00:15:21
10 to 1 right that hot and sometimes, yeah, and big thing with golf is, um then golf Betting is people say that someone can't win back to back tournaments.
00:15:30
I don't necessarily find that to be true.
00:15:32
I don't think that because j t.
00:15:34
One last week he's gonna take this week off.
00:15:36
It's a major.
00:15:37
If last week was a big torment, and then this week was a shift tournament and he is playing it.
00:15:42
Yeah, maybe he's not getting out of bed and quickly is not working on game as much between the round here between the tournament.
00:15:49
But this is a major.
00:15:50
It's not a run of the mill event that's going on.
00:15:53
He's getting up for this.
00:15:57
Oh, yeah, Cool.
00:15:59
Let's move on to this next kind of tear.
00:16:01
After those kind of big hitters up there, we have Sander, D J.
00:16:06
Patrick Cantlie, Webb Simpson calling.
00:16:10
Then we got Tiger Woods out of those guys.
00:16:13
Who you looking at value.
00:16:15
So Yeah, absolutely.
00:16:17
So I actually do have some that, uh, in this range.
00:16:20
I'm just pulling up my sheet here.
00:16:22
So you mentioned may go because numbers have moved, so I'm not necessarily I didn't get down at all of these prices.
00:16:31
So Zander, Dustin Webb can't lay Tiger and Colin more column.
00:16:36
So I have bet on Web and Morikawa.
00:16:40
Zander.
00:16:41
I think those obvious ridiculous is that 18 to 1, which puts them, as they assume, one of the top 5 to 10 golfers in the world.
00:16:50
I think one of the top 15 golfers, if you're giving me Xander at 28 or 30 I'm probably betting it. But Sandor 18.
00:16:58
I know it, bookmaker earlier this week, yesterday he was down to 13 to 1.
00:17:04
That's just someone who really liked them and put a ton of money on him to win outright.
00:17:08
I can't get down on him at that price.
00:17:10
I don't think that that is necessarily a good pressure D J.
00:17:15
He just showed he he's so hitter mess.
00:17:18
He's like a Brooks is like a brewery where they kind of come and go.
00:17:23
I hit on D J a few weeks ago with an L right, but I have not gone back to bed. D. J.
00:17:29
He's kind of let me down.
00:17:31
Um, d j, I believe, has had a tougher time finding the fairway than most of these other guys in the field.
00:17:37
When you look at his fairway accuracy, he's 100 deaths in the field out of about 100 for $9.
00:17:45
So that's not necessarily a good staff.
00:17:48
Can't lay ice in his veins, Mr Consistent.
00:17:51
I really like him, but that number is a little tough for me.
00:17:54
Um, at 25 I believe it is currently 25 to 1, so I don't necessarily have him there.
00:18:01
Tiger El Tigre.
00:18:02
You gotta love them.
00:18:04
It's a major.
00:18:05
Um, personally, for me, I would look a tiger in matchups and the torment versus taking him out.
00:18:10
Right? Maybe taken pop five.
00:18:13
Um, and you can get him around top five, top five.
00:18:19
You can probably get him around Plucked 400.
00:18:21
I think that's a good that if he wins outright, I will absolutely be there cheering alongside, rooting for the guy.
00:18:28
But I'm just not tying up my capital in him.
00:18:31
He doesn't rank too highly in my model just because my model takes a lot of recent form into place of Tiger actually fault outside of the top 20.
00:18:40
Um, in my numbers, as does Dustin Web, I have about on weather 28 to 1.
00:18:45
I love Web on the best putters on tour.
00:18:48
That's a great iron player.
00:18:50
He does well on part four.
00:18:52
Part fours.
00:18:53
Make up 12 of the 18 holes, but I really like Web there in Morikawa More Qala.
00:19:00
I'd play him at 30 to 1 or higher.
00:19:01
I got him at 35.
00:19:03
I love that number.
00:19:04
I think that 30 is probably the right number, maybe 29 28.
00:19:09
I don't necessarily see value there, but I think they're worth.
00:19:12
That's that could be made than Colin.
00:19:13
More Qala.
00:19:14
He is one of the two best iron players on tour right now.
00:19:18
Him and J. T.
00:19:19
Um, he won a few weeks ago and a playoff.
00:19:22
Steve, Bjt shows that he can hang with the big dogs, and this is only this is still considered his work a year.
00:19:29
I mean, the man is incredible.
00:19:30
He another angle to look at column work.
00:19:34
I was that he plays golf at Cal Berkeley, just across the Bay Bridge.
00:19:39
I actually lived in Berkeley my first year.
00:19:41
Ah, year and 1/2.
00:19:42
I lived in the Bay Area, so he's familiar with this court is the court that, um, it's the most sought after court in the Bay Area.
00:19:51
So this is where college teams are trying to practice trying to get their guys out the play, The more college definitely played the field.
00:19:58
He probably hasn't played this track with this type of rough that he is seeing this week.
00:20:07
Gotcha! Moving on after Tiger.
00:20:11
Looks like we got Daniel Berger and Jason Day at 33 to 1 on.
00:20:17
And then it kind of goes to this pork a range where guys like Tom a Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, Matthew six Patrick Matsuyama, Arnie Guys there that you like Gary Woodland.
00:20:31
Yeah, actually, this ranges where I picked out 123 golfers in the 40 to 50 to one range.
00:20:39
Um, I got burger when he was at 40 to 1.
00:20:44
Daniel Berger, the Ginger sensation.
00:20:47
The other Mr Consistent out there on the court this week.
00:20:51
There's three Mr Consistent him.
00:20:54
You got Tyrrell Hatton.
00:20:55
Um, who's now? At 40 to 1.
00:20:58
I got hatin at, uh 50 to 1.
00:21:01
You might be able to get those numbers.
00:21:03
Just go do a little shopping and I have woodland as well.
00:21:06
At 50 to 1, he's now 40 to 1.
00:21:09
Be about online.
00:21:12
These guys fit the profile.
00:21:13
What I'm looking for.
00:21:15
By and large, they can keep their tee shots straight, whether they have as much difference as Brighton and Worry and Brooks or not.
00:21:23
Well, they don't, but they're going to keep it a little bit straighter.
00:21:26
Um, they're decent putter to above average, but as long as you're not one of the worst hunters on tour, you'll do well.
00:21:34
They're decent with their wedges.
00:21:36
So if they do find themselves in the rough, these are the type of guys who I trust to be able to get out of the rough.
00:21:42
Um, if we're looking at like a weather angle, you know, maybe it starts raining that can randomly happen in the Bay Area.
00:21:49
Maybe the wind picks up a lot more a gallon to roll Hatton or Fleetwood who play in England.
00:21:55
They play in the UK a lot.
00:21:56
These air, their home, these air like their home courses.
00:21:59
This is like a May or in October or January in London, trying to play golf.
00:22:05
Um, so the there used to these conditions I think that they will play well for me.
00:22:13
Someone like Gary Woodland as when the other guys that is in the trench.
00:22:17
He is very boomer.
00:22:19
Bus Woodland is either going to win this tournament or he's barely gonna make the cut.
00:22:25
There doesn't seem to be a lot of wiggle room with his game, but I am betting on him to have one of better round a week.
00:22:33
He is great iron play.
00:22:34
Um, when they pull up my numbers here real quick, see where he ends.
00:22:43
Woodland comes in at 18 in my numbers is one of top 10 iron players.
00:22:47
He gains a lot of opportunities, meaning that he is putting for birdie or par, Um, more than the rest of the field.
00:22:56
He gained a lot of birdie opportunities.
00:22:57
He's good from the tea until it gets to the green.
00:23:01
One piece on that green, one of the top 10 others this season, and he's one of the top 50 bench graft putters over the last two years.
00:23:09
Those are a lot of things I'm looking at.
00:23:12
Woodlands had a little bit more struggles with this driver lately.
00:23:15
Aziz been testing a new driver for Wilson on the He isn't necessarily one of the best.
00:23:21
The wedge like around the Green Player, so that might be a little bit concerned.
00:23:25
And thats working off the rails.
00:23:27
If he can't keep his balls in the fairway, he's gonna struggle.
00:23:31
And in guys in this range, he's the one who struggled to keep it in the fairway.
00:23:37
You mentioned Ricki, I'm not going to talk about him.
00:23:39
All the slanders.
00:23:40
A poor guy.
00:23:42
He does have a cool looking moustache now that it seems like he's finally gotten whom other really cool clothing this season after years of them just looking like this weird mishmash of like Steal A and Nike? Um, Matthew Matthew Matthew Fitzpatrick is the number one partner on tour.
00:24:01
Right now.
00:24:02
He's got the hottest putter if he's able to hit his irons well and he can keep his ball straight off the tee, you will absolutely be in the running for the torment come Sunday.
00:24:13
But by and large, he's not someone who I'm putting money on just because the number for him is a lot shorter than what I would like.
00:24:21
I'd like to see Patrick at a 45 or 50 to 1, Probably where he opened the week.
00:24:27
But because this is a major, um, guys in the top of the board or taking a lot of heavy money so their odds are slipping a little bit more than you typically, but yeah.
00:24:42
And then, speaking of value, we keep getting more and more as we get down this list, we're starting to see guys, you know, like, uh, we got Philips 66 to 1.
00:24:54
Sergio 66.
00:24:56
Matt Kuchar at 82 1 Is there anything in that kind of range? Yeah, So I have.
00:25:04
I have one bet beyond 50 to 1.
00:25:06
I believe the I only have one.
00:25:08
It's Abraham answer.
00:25:09
At 66 1 he's actually jumped all the way down to 50 to 1.
00:25:14
So it seems like I got some pretty good value.
00:25:16
Their answer is the prototype of what I'm looking for in my numbers.
00:25:21
He ranked number six.
00:25:22
He's top 10 in his iron play.
00:25:25
He gained their way.
00:25:26
He's good off the tee.
00:25:28
Um, he does well in part boards.
00:25:30
He doesn't really have a true weakness in his game right now, and he's someone at a 51 price, So I still absolute jump on.
00:25:38
I play answer down to about 42 1 Mark.
00:25:41
Um, you mentioned Fell, not plan.
00:25:44
So, uh, you mentioned that future.
00:25:47
I actually do like Kuchar here, but it would be for, like, a top 20 type best, because he shows up well in these type of tournament.
00:25:54
But I'm not taking him to win it right.
00:25:56
I think that Matt Kuchar's chance of winning the tournament are very, very slim to none.
00:26:02
Um, I would say that still has almost a year percent chance of winning.
00:26:06
Um, I kind of think of from the other guys that you just named Sergio.
00:26:10
I really like the idea If I didn't already have all of my best lined up and I can't allocate a certain amount of money to different types of bets, surgery would absolutely be a bet from a, um, the way he's been playing lately.
00:26:25
He's done extremely well, But think would surgery that he falls into that one of the worst putters on tour category.
00:26:34
Yeah, over real quick.
00:26:37
Yeah, And if he and he is one of and it's somewhat of the stereotype among, um, golf me or that some of these European guys they could be a little bit more hot headed in Sergio, absolutely one of those players if he starts missing the re foot, but they're gonna be putter Slams didn't see.
00:26:56
I'm kind of talking clubs a little bit.
00:26:58
Will be kicking dirt if he ends up in the bunkers.
00:27:01
He isn't necessarily known for sportsmanship.
00:27:05
And for some guys were that life of firing him like, you know, Brooks or even Jon Rahm, that seems to really light a fire in there.
00:27:12
Asked as to playing better, Sergio seems crumble once he gets into its head.
00:27:18
Um, I have him as my number 24 on my model really quickly when they on the If he's one of the top 20 guys, I'd probably play him down to about 60.
00:27:31
He opened at 75 to 1, but it's 66 the one like I said about Colin Morikawa, 28 1 There certainly work that he could be making.
00:27:42
Beyond that.
00:27:43
I don't think there's a whole lot in the outright market because there's a major.
00:27:47
You're kind of going to see some guys talk playback.
00:27:51
It's not one of these random tornado in place with three m Open or something like that.
00:27:55
The John Deere Classic, where you kind of see these 100 to 1 80 to 1 pitch in majors.
00:28:00
You typically see guys the top 20 golfers in the world when these events.
00:28:05
Now some of the top 20 golfers in the world hasn't won a major yet.
00:28:08
And this is a good opportunity for them to do that here.
00:28:14
Yep.
00:28:17
Cool.
00:28:18
So let's shift years.
00:28:20
Uh, since you kind of don't outright market there, Are there any props that you like coming in this tournament? I know props.
00:28:28
We're kind of getting to be more popular.
00:28:30
Uh, Betty? Yeah, especially in golf.
00:28:34
Now there's majors.
00:28:35
You a couple different prop options.
00:28:36
So you have the whole in one prop.
00:28:38
People love that one.
00:28:39
Um, it's right around even money this week.
00:28:42
So if you're looking to throw a little bit of money on something and root for something fun, that's always a fun one.
00:28:48
Um, I think it's plus 1 10 to the yak minus one fifties and now.
00:28:53
But what I did see is that round one it's like plus 500 for the Yes.
00:28:59
If you're gonna bet a hole in one.
00:29:00
Just that around one home, one.
00:29:02
You can get it at five times better.
00:29:04
Odds didn't get over the course of the full tournament and tournament, especially Major.
00:29:10
It gets harder as the day goes on.
00:29:11
They put the pains and harder locations.
00:29:14
So Thursday is going to be the best opportunity for golfers to go ahead and hit that hole in one real quickly.
00:29:22
Just looking at the way the court breaks down.
00:29:23
You have one too.
00:29:25
You have four part threes.
00:29:27
Um, so that's really the only ones that are going to have the option to be ableto get a hole in one.
00:29:35
I mean, you have, ah, 330 yard par four, which, theoretically, a guy like Bryce and Rory would be able to hit it.
00:29:45
That part, but much, uh, Lester Odd.
00:29:50
But if there's going to be a hole in one, we're gonna see it on hole number three.
00:29:55
The part 3180 yards those air, the holes that we see people hit hole in ones on Abraham Abraham.
00:30:04
Answer had ah, home one on a part 3 200 a few weeks ago.
00:30:09
Um, I think Matthew Fitzpatrick had a hole in one a few weeks ago as well.
00:30:13
So if you're gonna bet the whole in one shift that the round one play that small odd, take the plus 500 on and hopefully receive something cool, go down on third.
00:30:23
This storm is gonna because it's a major.
00:30:25
We're gonna 12 3 hours coverage.
00:30:27
Um, Thursday and Friday.
00:30:29
Saturday is a little bit less, because with the cut, it won't be as long.
00:30:33
But we're going to see a lot of golf this weekend.
00:30:35
So if you're looking for something to root on that certain yet, Yeah, go ahead.
00:30:43
I know you mentioned that.
00:30:45
It's probably gonna be a close tournament here with how the course is playing.
00:30:50
So I know one prop that I see here is, well, playoff hole be needed.
00:30:56
That plus 500 then no, is our plus 500 for yes, and then minus 400 for note.
00:31:03
Is there any value thinking that Do you think there's gonna be a play? Awful.
00:31:07
I actually think the value which sounds crazy inside the values on no minus 400 because of the way the court breaks down So, um, I'm releasing my article later tonight, So anyone who's following along with this can check it out.
00:31:21
The laugh.
00:31:22
3 to 4 holes are some.
00:31:24
The last holds the hardest hole in the court because it is so challenging.
00:31:30
That is where it got its whole number.
00:31:33
18 on Sunday.
00:31:34
If two players are going into the 18th hole tied, here's how it breaks down with the scoring breakdown on hole number 18.
00:31:43
55% hit par 32 points.
00:31:47
The 33% bogey in 6% double bogey, 6% birdie.
00:31:52
So you have a large distribution between pars and bogeys.
00:31:57
So if you're going in tow, hold number 18 and it's closed.
00:32:01
It might not be closed after whole 18.
00:32:04
I think that there's some value on the no minus 400.
00:32:08
I did see it.
00:32:09
No, minus 3 75 miles.
00:32:12
3 50 I believe that was on my bookie.
00:32:15
Um, so do some shopping around on that if you are interested, I just don't see this being, um, a court this week where, given how difficult the rough is that we see a playful This was home to one of the most historic playoff 2005 John Daly and Tiger.
00:32:35
This is 5 10 years after John Daly's black major.
00:32:39
He had one kind of a cult for year, this point of big drinking guy walking down the course with a cigarette and McDonald's cup of Diet Coke.
00:32:50
But they went into a playful The playful lasted two holes because the second time they played 18.
00:32:56
Uh, once daily got to that green, he missed a two foot putt.
00:33:02
So this is where one would think where you don't need to be the greatest butter, but you need to be competent.
00:33:08
And he just I got caught up in the moment.
00:33:10
I think they're not being a crowd here.
00:33:12
Take that out a bit.
00:33:14
But I would be surprised.
00:33:15
Very surprised to see a play off here.
00:33:20
Got you.
00:33:21
Got you.
00:33:22
Definitely.
00:33:23
Look at that article later that he's gonna put out for more information on that.
00:33:28
Let's go to groups.
00:33:31
What? That That's another popular bet.
00:33:33
Uh, when we start off with the top Australian were some guys you like to finish from down under on top? Yes.
00:33:42
Uh oh.
00:33:44
This is a unique um, I like this region betting because typically you have wanted to got some pulled up here just so I can make sure I'm giving everyone their due credit.
00:33:56
And I've got the odds at what is still available at time of streaming that.
00:34:03
Give me a second bullet up here.
00:34:05
Top American to challenge too many guys.
00:34:07
Way too many guys.
00:34:09
Top Australian.
00:34:11
Up until now we've seen it's basically you're either getting Jason Day or Marc Leishman, those kind of your two guys you've been betting on but make their Adam Scott won the I don't know Top 20 golfers in the world isn't making his first appearance.
00:34:26
Post restart.
00:34:28
Um, here he has been not playing just because he lives.
00:34:34
He lives in Australia.
00:34:35
Um, he came over to the States like a month ago, and he's been surfing and he's been golfing like he's been having a good time.
00:34:42
He wasn't not playing due to injury or due to like health concerns during that.
00:34:48
That's kind of where I tended stretch straight off someone.
00:34:51
But in a rare occasion, you're getting Adam Scott not as the paper.
00:34:55
So Adam Scott plus 200 Aziz pop up show, and I love that his right number is a little bit higher, But would it be? I think it's like 50 to 1 was being his first tournament back.
00:35:08
I don't necessarily think he can go out there and win, but he's got compete.
00:35:11
Jason Days shown from riel renewed form over the last few tournaments but getting a chance to bet Adam Scott as the top Australian at plus 200 unless he misses the Cotton.
00:35:22
Is next year.
00:35:23
Tournament? Last time, we're gonna see him as he not the favorite as the top of studying.
00:35:29
So Adam Scott plus 200 pop Australian.
00:35:32
That's my bet. There.
00:35:37
Great value there.
00:35:39
Let's go load another region.
00:35:41
That's not America.
00:35:43
What about the top Englishman, who you like in that category there? So with Englishmen and, um, they you have two options you can do topping one.
00:35:52
You can do top Great Britain in England, which one? Thin all your Irish golfers as well.
00:35:58
So if you are, if you believe in Rory this week, um, then I would bet Rory as your top Great Britain and top England that plus 200 because I have a little bit doubt on worry.
00:36:11
I don't necessarily think he's gonna perform terribly.
00:36:13
I don't think that he's personally.
00:36:15
I don't feel that he's going to win this morning, so to give myself a little bit of the juice odds there, I'm looking at zero hatin at plus 7 50 real quickly.
00:36:27
Just a breakdown.
00:36:29
Hatton's form in 2020.
00:36:31
Let me pull that up in my members here.
00:36:33
He's been one of the top golfers this season.
00:36:35
He doesn't go out there and play every single tournament.
00:36:38
He hasn't played every tournament since restart, but he played, and not so in 2020.
00:36:43
He's played in 123 playing six tournaments.
00:36:47
He's been top 10 in five of them.
00:36:50
And in a six tournament, which was last week, the ST Jude he was 69.
00:36:56
Do I hear the theory on this? This is the PGA Tour conspiracy theory that hey, just didn't care last week with ST Jude.
00:37:06
There's no cut, so it's a guaranteed payday for everyone.
00:37:09
So when he started to perform terribly, there's no way of really shine off that one.
00:37:17
It seems like he just didn't really care.
00:37:19
He was.
00:37:20
He's lost a ton of stroke spotting.
00:37:21
You're missing a ton of pop lost almost four strokes on the greens there and he wasn't hitting his irons well.
00:37:27
And he's one of the best iron players on tour.
00:37:30
So General Hatton plus 7 50 for Top Great Britain.
00:37:34
Um talk, uh, tough, Great Britain Top Irish, their top English.
00:37:42
I really like him. We got Mark.
00:37:44
Bellevue just hopped in.
00:37:45
I had done the stream with him on the guy from unwrapped.
00:37:48
Or he says, Adam Scott Adams got at so the reason I actually even brought up Adam because because Mark A.
00:37:57
DME earlier this week earlier today and Mark said that he really likes having Scott.
00:38:02
You think course sets up well for him.
00:38:04
He thinks that's a great number to be able to get him.
00:38:07
So having already had a full outright card, I was looking for ways to get down on that and spot and I really like that plus 200 pop Australian, a little bit of value there with the tea Rohatyn that plus 50.
00:38:22
I think he's one of the I think he's the top five that in this tournament this torment, this course set up well for him on plus 7 50 for him to basically beat out Rory, basically what, you're looking at your taking a head to head off him versus worry, and you're getting 7 50 I take that that, you know, maybe lay 1/5 of the unit on it toe win, you know, 1.
00:38:46
5 minutes.
00:38:47
That's a great that right there.
00:38:48
And that's probably what I'll be locking in monthly.
00:38:51
Get off the stream, Jack.
00:38:54
You also see, uh, we had another comment. Come in.
00:38:58
Tom Lewis Flyer question.
00:39:01
So let may flip back over the seeing him here at 11 to 1.
00:39:08
Okay, so, yeah, so let's see where Louis winds up in mind numbers.
00:39:15
Lewis actually erect pretty well on the top 50 iron players.
00:39:20
Lewis's issue over the um past few months has been keeping the ball in the fairway, but he does have some pretty solid West play above average on the tour, in which, but so if he does find themselves in the rough there, I know he had a great showing last week with his iron play.
00:39:38
He's excellent.
00:39:40
I am player.
00:39:41
He's solid putter.
00:39:42
Um, at 11 to 1, that's a pretty solid bet there.
00:39:45
Um, I like that almost much like the T.
00:39:49
Rowe hatin.
00:39:50
But at 7 50 I'm gonna take zero hatin.
00:39:53
You can take top.
00:39:54
Englishman Lewis had 11 1 if you take him.
00:39:58
Uh, great Britain and England, You're getting 16 1 That's a great that I would bet that over the 11 toe one, um, top Englishman.
00:40:08
You have a lot of value in that CU next.
00:40:14
Let's go on to.
00:40:16
So over the top 20 finishers were some guys you like to finish in the top 20.
00:40:21
Yeah, the top 20 for me.
00:40:23
The chance to dig into those, you know, 80 to 100 to one odds guys for that right market and take them to place top 20.
00:40:32
So the, um the shortest odd.
00:40:37
The much chalky top 20 that I'm playing this week.
00:40:40
It's Abraham answer.
00:40:41
I got him at 66 1 in my outright and I got his top 20 at 260 plus, um, flipping back over real quick.
00:40:54
Do you have their current odds up right now? First appointed. Yeah.
00:40:59
Uh, Let's see here.
00:41:04
I'm seeing him at Abraham Heart Answer at Plus 2 25 Yeah, I make that bad answer.
00:41:12
I'll pull up his numbers here.
00:41:15
He's another one of those super consistent guys.
00:41:18
Um, I believe he had a real ****ty week last week, Uh, only, and it's getting top 15.
00:41:23
He ended up coming back around on the weekend, so he has had in 2020.
00:41:29
He had 123 or but he said six of his 10 events that he played in.
00:41:37
He's been in the top 20.
00:41:38
He any hasn't missed the cut, so his floor is very high.
00:41:42
Four. Top 50.
00:41:43
But his feeling is the number two at the Heritage.
00:41:48
He was number two at the iMac, so he can be on the top five times.
00:41:52
Offers out there at plus 2 25 2 plus 2 60 I think that is a great next guy.
00:41:59
A little bit further down.
00:42:01
Who's been impressing some people? Her A little bit of buzz about him.
00:42:05
One of the better names on tours head Reavy Um, Chad is 101 in the outright market.
00:42:14
I got his top 20 at about 400.
00:42:18
If he ranked number 15 to my model, he is, um I heard on a podcast that someone described him as a bunter as how short his driver shots are.
00:42:29
Um, s so I thought that was really funny.
00:42:33
But when he bunted, he keeps him a fair way so you can keep it in their way.
00:42:38
And then you can gain stroke with your irons on the approach.
00:42:41
That's the recipe for success here.
00:42:43
He's been top 20 in his last three tournaments.
00:42:46
Um, and he has another top 10 finish in 2020.
00:42:50
He's only missed one cut.
00:42:51
So another high floor by floor guy, he's going to do well, he he should make the cut.
00:42:58
Um, and he has a very, very good chance of being top 20.
00:43:01
So I really like Henry V.
00:43:03
One of the best iron player on tour right now.
00:43:06
And he's been above average putter, um, which you like to see the game.
00:43:10
A lot of opportunities.
00:43:11
So have chances to make birdies to score low in a tournament like this.
00:43:18
A little bit further down the road board ball bit, man like myself.
00:43:24
Kevin Streelman, another guy who's been getting a lot of buzz by the fact that he's also a 40 year old golfer like previous, just because this form lately has been very, very good.
00:43:35
I want top 50 ball strikers.
00:43:37
He gained fairway.
00:43:38
So keep it straight.
00:43:40
Um, he's great t degrees.
00:43:42
So from the time he's, uh, on the T all the way till he's about.
00:43:46
But he's one of top guys.
00:43:49
He isn't a great putter.
00:43:52
So he falls into the bottom two thirties, falls into the bottom third of the field and putting.
00:43:57
But that means awful.
00:44:00
Um, he's done a little bit better on this season than its historical putting.
00:44:05
So I got Shulman at plus 600.
00:44:09
What is he currently? Um, if you can do it for that, the still plus 600.
00:44:21
I love that.
00:44:22
That Ah guy who had been the top twenties last three tournament.
00:44:26
I really like Kevin Streelman at plus 600.
00:44:29
Um, last one I have, which is my longest shot.
00:44:33
Um, Mr 59 himself.
00:44:36
Jim Carrick.
00:44:37
Um, I another bunter He I think I drive the ball about as far as Jim Pierre does.
00:44:46
I think he's about to 50 off the tee, and that's about where I am not killing the ball by any means, but he keep it straight.
00:44:56
So I'm gonna pull up my, uh, Fairway statistics.
00:45:00
I believe Erick is number three.
00:45:03
Um, Derek this week played his first or this past week played his first event on the Champions Tour, which is for golfers 50 plus anyone.
00:45:12
So he's in good form. He's healthy.
00:45:14
Um, usually, health isn't really concerned.
00:45:16
He's one of the guys who tend to have a lot of injuries.
00:45:19
He's good with his irons.
00:45:21
He's a solid putter.
00:45:22
I mean, he has his lowest around.
00:45:24
He shot a 59 on a very challenging course, this course that both for, um, I don't think he's someone who's gonna go off the rails.
00:45:35
So he's someone who's consistent and there is a champ.
00:45:39
He gets in the top 20.
00:45:41
He hasn't been a top 20 guy this season by its Jim ferc.
00:45:45
Um, let's say he's plus not one.
00:45:49
Yeah, plus 900.
00:45:50
I mean, he was number two of the players last year.
00:45:54
Um, he was number for the window in 2018 and just trying to be kind of recent form where he's done pretty well.
00:46:03
Um, he is.
00:46:04
Another is a couple handful of top 20 finishes in 2019 so we only he's fallen off drastically.
00:46:11
Um, and I think this is a good opportunity for him at plus 900.
00:46:17
Their 0.
00:46:18
2 units on that, you know, get almost two full units back.
00:46:21
If he wins, that's a really solid bet at 900.
00:46:27
Yeah.
00:46:28
I mean, you didn't do anything crazy to finish in the top 20.
00:46:30
You just have to play.
00:46:31
His game has been doing yet.
00:46:33
You can't you can't blow holes.
00:46:36
Um, he's not someone who bogeys a lot.
00:46:39
He is a par golfer.
00:46:41
As long as the 1st 2 days he can stay under part to make the cut.
00:46:46
Children just roll through Saturday.
00:46:47
Hell broke.
00:46:48
There's some big he doesn't usually have.
00:46:49
Ah, blow up around where he goes, like six or seven over.
00:46:52
Part is normally anywhere from minus six under par.
00:46:57
Two like plus two.
00:46:59
I didn't accept that.
00:47:00
That someone who had plus 900 I'm happy that there's some money on.
00:47:05
Um, looks like we got a comment from Mark use asking about Tom Lewis Price.
00:47:11
Yeah, we were, um, leave.
00:47:13
Probably is right around 100 20 less.
00:47:15
That's what he is.
00:47:16
Teoh win outright 25 1 when we're talking about, Um those Thea Great Britain.
00:47:24
Yes.
00:47:25
Perfect.
00:47:28
So it looks like the last of it.
00:47:31
Do you like any round leaders make or miss cuts? Is there anything there that you think there's some value in? Yeah, Um, so around leader year, you've got a really look who can go low.
00:47:46
Um, so let me I'll pull it up here.
00:47:49
Um, for the first round, take a look at who? We got odds on that.
00:47:58
I mean, if you think that Brooks is gonna come out guns blazing.
00:48:02
Plus 2000 for Brooke.
00:48:04
Ah, win the first round at the top of the board.
00:48:07
He's the only player who I would even consider.
00:48:11
I wouldn't take anyone even breaks in.
00:48:13
I don't think that Bryson's driver has been straight enough lately for him to do extremely well.
00:48:20
I think that Brooke that plus 2000 for the first time, the leader is a great um for current that another guy who I can see kind of a little bit further down the board.
00:48:31
Who could do well, it's Padecky Matsuyama.
00:48:34
I'm historically very hard on Hideki.
00:48:38
He's an absolutely atrocious butter which has been but the thing is that he's only attraction this year.
00:48:46
Historically, he is not.
00:48:48
He's one of better iron players.
00:48:50
He goes lower than anyone.
00:48:52
He is the best wedge player on tour, not named Phil ****elson.
00:48:57
So when you have someone who is that comfortable with pledges in their hands, they have great, um, approach play and tee to green.
00:49:05
He's number two in the field.
00:49:08
Find it hard to pass him up.
00:49:09
Um, Padecky is plus 4000 to be your first time leader.
00:49:18
Those two guys towards the top that I would really take a hard look at, um, kind of grab someone in that next range kind of the 50 to 100.
00:49:28
That will be the only one that I'll cover.
00:49:34
All right, you gotta You gotta swallow the pill on this one.
00:49:38
Bubble walked in.
00:49:39
82 ones ate out.
00:49:41
You want talk about coming to shot is made for this court.
00:49:45
He's a left handed golfer.
00:49:47
So left handed golfer naturally hit drawings, right? So their shop tests to spray the left of that.
00:49:53
So he is the distance.
00:49:56
But he is considerably, considerably better with his irons on Someone like Philip, um as the other lefty out there.
00:50:04
Let me see how problem in putting an above average butter peas above the cut on that.
00:50:12
The issue is Bubba is his wedge play.
00:50:14
He sometimes looks like one of those due to If he swings his wedge too hard, it's going to get stuck into the ground because sometimes completely locked with the really short club, I mean, he's probably one that I think he's going to call cellphones from poor right now, so it makes sense that when he's dealing with a short of clubs seeking struggle a little bit, But if he can find a way to keep his ball in the fairway, Baba is absolutely live of the first round leader at 80 to 1000.
00:50:47
Um, on the other type prop that I will talk about, and I only saw this on my bookie I haven't seen anywhere else.
00:50:54
It falls under their top by region top player by region, and it's the top former winner.
00:51:02
So this looked at players who have previously one, um, the PGA Championship.
00:51:08
So in the field we have 367 We have 13 former PGA Tour PGA Championship winner the obvious one here for maize Brooks, you get Brooklyn plus T 50.
00:51:23
Basically, with this, you're taking a Brooks vs Justin there J t Justin Thomas head to head and you're getting Plus 2 50 The only two other guys who possibly conduce you extremely well, in my opinion, would be Rory Tiger worries plus 300 tires plus extended.
00:51:43
If you're looking for just any possible way to put the money down on Packer, this would deal with solid way to do it.
00:51:50
As you know, plus 600.
00:51:52
You throw down a couple, too little Caesars on that, you can win.
00:51:56
Should I play like 60? There? Looks like six with 12 levels.
00:52:01
You can win.
00:52:03
Not bad and turns the will season there.
00:52:05
Um, so if you're looking for a value Tiger bet, I think that is it.
00:52:10
Plus 600 as, um, the top former winner.
00:52:15
But my pick for that one is broke at plus 2 50 I see.
00:52:20
Everybody loves Tiger.
00:52:21
It's gonna be a popular pick definite with the out rights.
00:52:24
But if you're looking for some, if you don't think is gonna win the tournament, that's simply about you There absolutely so kind of last thing that I will talk about, um, on the street here.
00:52:36
And then if you have any questions there, there's anything wrong in from and comment for us to discuss.
00:52:42
We can take a look at that.
00:52:44
In my article, I detail four of my eight, um, full tournament had had matchup.
00:52:50
I left off four because four of them that I kind of watch out about a little bit on the stream.
00:52:55
Um, so the 1st 1 is one that is the most funny to me.
00:52:59
This Jason Duffner versus Kurt coaching Kochiyama, which I'm gonna have to pull up.
00:53:07
I don't even know books are still taking bets on this because this is just one of occasions where if you were paying attention early in the week, you got a great number.
00:53:18
So the way that they set the whole tournament matchup your grouped around players who they're outright numbers are similar to yours.
00:53:26
So Jason Duffner, who is the tour professional and he's keep one Ah, a major about 100 years ago is matched up against Kurt cutting to Yama, which honestly, before last week, when he was the lowest ranked player in the field at the WGC.
00:53:45
I had not heard of him before.
00:53:47
I got Duffner at it minus 1 15 money line.
00:53:52
It's up from minus 1 70 I saw it today at minus 1 85 There's almost a minus 200 paper in a head to head matchup against the golfer who, theoretically, the books thought were what? The coin flip? Because the game of the all matchups opened minus 1 10 on either side.
00:54:11
So to see him go from, you know, I got it at 1 15 all the way up to 1 85 and then it's now settled around 1 70 That one was really funny.
00:54:22
There's no value inmate putting that in my article because I probably wouldn't play a minus 1 80 but it might 1 15 You're sure **** that I'm about that, um, in my numbers.
00:54:33
I'm gonna pull that up real quick.
00:54:35
I think I had a doctor like, definitely number 49.
00:54:39
And Katayama is number 161.
00:54:44
So I have 100 and 20 golfers in between where I have Jason Duffner and Kurt Kochiyama.
00:54:52
So that's the 1st 1 that I want to discuss.
00:54:56
Um, I do have a Eric, both corn and matchup.
00:54:59
So check out my article for that.
00:55:00
I have a Brook full tournament.
00:55:03
Hibbert's Rahm to check out the article for the right up.
00:55:06
On that, I have Michael Thomas Thompson start vs JC posting.
00:55:12
For some reason, Michael Thompson is a dog in this one.
00:55:15
I've got plus 1 20 on the money line, Um, on that online.
00:55:20
Right now he is plus 1 12 on the money line.
00:55:26
He's a dog.
00:55:27
I don't get it.
00:55:28
He is a better golfer than JC posted, uh, any possible way that you look at it from a postman ranks 90.
00:55:36
My numbers.
00:55:38
Thompson ring 71.
00:55:41
Thompson's day was iron as long as he can keep the ball make their way.
00:55:45
And he his issue is his shipping is terrible.
00:55:49
Once he keeps it in the fairway, he hits those greens and regulation.
00:55:53
He's gonna do well.
00:55:54
JC posted one of the worst iron players he won.
00:55:58
The player scored the highest on tour.
00:56:01
Andi doesn't do very great on par.
00:56:03
Fours overall.
00:56:04
Especially long depart, for there's a lot of angles to attack posts and in this one and getting Michael Thompson at plus 1 20 when theoretically they should be a coin foot.
00:56:15
I'm absolutely taking that.
00:56:19
Uh, she's Revie.
00:56:21
I detail that my article.
00:56:22
I have him over Billy Horschel plus 1 15 I talk about Tyrell Hatton.
00:56:30
I'm laying the stroke there so minus 1.
00:56:32
5 over speed at plus 1 20 So that the great that, um, I have two more than you talk about Cameron Tringali, who's been one of the darlings of my eyes, supposed to restart Great Iron Player.
00:56:48
That's what I'm all about.
00:56:49
These guys and the good iron they can hit the fairways.
00:56:52
Cameron Tringali minus 1.
00:56:54
5 stroke over Troy Merritt.
00:56:57
I don't necessarily think that tort in there is a terrible golfer.
00:57:00
I just think that the chance of him not making the cut it is very good when you are doing for 20 matchups.
00:57:08
The strategy that I tried Teoh approaches from is betting against the guy who I don't think will make the cut when you're opponent doesn't make the cut Automatic W my golfer.
00:57:20
Can they go plus 9 +99 over the next two rounds Doesn't matter because he made the cut So it's an automatic turned dolly.
00:57:29
Ranks as 51 in my model, and Troy Merritt actually rank bottom 10.
00:57:35
He's number 141.
00:57:37
That Iron Player.
00:57:39
He doesn't do well off the tee.
00:57:41
He doesn't get a lot stroke.
00:57:43
He's arable with his wedges.
00:57:45
It's not gonna part board.
00:57:47
Basically, everything about this course is terrible.
00:57:49
Per Troy Merritt.
00:57:50
I say that he's probably getting a top 10. Finished.
00:57:53
I'm gonna punch myself in the face.
00:57:55
Um, but as of right now, I'm happy to take camera.
00:57:59
Turn golly minus 1.
00:58:00
5 stroke at plus 1 20 over trying There.
00:58:05
Uh, last one that I will detail hair is the gender sensation himself.
00:58:11
Daniel Berger minus 1.
00:58:12
5 stroke over Rickie Fowler Burger and made some news three weeks ago.
00:58:19
Everyone was all over him for for years.
00:58:22
The memorial Any Mr Cut It is only missed cut of the season, I think Onley non top 10 finish on the season until we got to the WGC last week and he's going into Rickie Fowler.
00:58:35
I have that luck money plus 1 15 I think Ricky's playing better.
00:58:41
I just don't trust that he's going to take you.
00:58:45
Um, I have Ricky as of the year.
00:58:49
My numbers looking remember? 50.
00:58:54
And I have, uh, Daniel Berger at I think burgers number two.
00:59:00
In my number.
00:59:03
Yes, Burgers and protect.
00:59:04
So he just does the things on this course that I think will matter a lot better than I don't.
00:59:11
I'm not fading, Ricky across the board.
00:59:13
This is probably the only thing I will bet against him on.
00:59:17
I'm not going to let him commit cut.
00:59:19
I just think that these two golfers at what should be a coin flip because they were both around 40 to 1.
00:59:25
They're both now around 35 to 1.
00:59:27
I think that Daniel burgers feeling is considerably higher than Rickie Fowler.
00:59:38
That's all I got.
00:59:41
Yeah, I mean, we covered a lot.
00:59:42
A lot of great pics like value.
00:59:44
There should be a world play tournament.
00:59:48
I'm inside of watch.
00:59:49
Can't wait. Yeah, yeah.
00:59:51
And what good is because it is the West Coast.
00:59:53
For now, we're gonna get primetime fault.
00:59:55
I mean, we're gonna have that.
00:59:57
You have the afternoon tea.
00:59:59
Time is two PM local.
01:00:01
So that 4 p.m. Eastern.
01:00:03
We're gonna have whether CBS Golf Channel, NBC.
01:00:07
Who knows covering it in the evening.
01:00:10
We're actually gonna be ableto sit at home, have some beers, watch these golfers.
01:00:15
And some of the bigger matchups are set up on Thursday and Friday.
01:00:19
Um, bigger than golfers were set up in the features matchup in the afternoon.
01:00:25
So we're in store for a good one.
01:00:27
That's the first major of the season.
01:00:29
So excited to finally get the chance to talk about Major.
01:00:33
Um, yeah.
01:00:34
To see where this one goes right now.
01:00:36
Um, as far as my bedding goes, they haven't released the round one matchup.
01:00:41
But I'm going back 10 units that I've got out at play right now among my outright.
01:00:47
I have little bit less than one unit total.
01:00:49
I stayed up all of those to win five or six.
01:00:52
My top twenties.
01:00:54
I have just about one unit at risk.
01:00:57
I have all of those two in one unit and then my matchups up where I really go crazy.
01:01:03
I have eight matchup.
01:01:04
Um, full tornado for a total unit.
01:01:07
So I'll throw, uh, the Adam Scott bet on their author appear all hatin.
01:01:13
I'll give a little hat tip to full goose and mark with Tom Lewis.
01:01:20
And I'll take Tom Lewis a swell throw a little money on that.
01:01:24
You know, maybe you can surprise us there.
01:01:26
Um, but that's all that I have.
01:01:27
Not anything that you care to plug baseball back in season now.
01:01:32
Anything in the work for you? Whether betting.
01:01:35
Um, I know you are a card collector.
01:01:38
Been seeing all your stuff on Twitter about that, I think.
01:01:42
In the works.
01:01:43
Yeah.
01:01:44
I'll give you a little, uh, card collector plug, shout to the hobby, but, uh, I don't know if you can see my screen.
01:01:51
I can get this.
01:01:57
Uh, look at that.
01:02:01
Well, Tiger Woods.
01:02:02
Yeah.
01:02:03
They, uh, be a man.
01:02:07
Always crazy right now.
01:02:10
Card games going wild with sports coming back.
01:02:14
I kept nuggets fans, so I casually have been collecting a bull bull.
01:02:22
Do you know who he was for a while, And then he had I think I was like, don't double in his first exhibition game.
01:02:30
Yeah, the prices on his card.
01:02:33
10 x kind of thing.
01:02:35
Yeah, the hobbies been picking up because Gary v right have been ah, profile a lot more lately, You're starting to see a lot of high profile or people large following outside of sports.
01:02:51
Kind of get into I'm card collecting.
01:02:54
I think Steve Aoki have, uh, Michael Jordan rookie card like a grated one.
01:03:02
Like putting on his instagram.
01:03:04
So, yeah, it's starting to really expand out retail audience that it never reached before.
01:03:12
Yeah.
01:03:13
No, that's really Well, I don't know if I had ever shared this with you, but growing up my father, the collector, more memorabilia than card.
01:03:20
Um, we put a lot of money into memorabilia, so I have tons of find autographs.
01:03:25
I have, like Mohammed Ali, one of my favorite ones.
01:03:29
I have much mankind game used, bat.
01:03:32
Um, I have Jim Brown.
01:03:35
That's cool. One pick up test.
01:03:37
Um, yeah, I love that one.
01:03:40
But my dad, growing when he was younger, had started.
01:03:44
Got a card clocking.
01:03:46
My dad, you know, is my dad's age.
01:03:48
Um, so when card collecting was, like, really at its peak.
01:03:51
So my dad in the eighties had a set that he sold his collection for over $10,000 because he had a get it Roberto Clemente rookie card and he has since gotten to Roberto Clemente. Rookie card.
01:04:06
I was with him when he got one in, like, 96 or 97.
01:04:09
He paid a few $1000 port.
01:04:11
Um, at in.
01:04:13
We used to go to a car collector.
01:04:15
Events on autograph signings.
01:04:17
Any picked one up there, and he flipped that for 12 K so, Yeah, I've always been around it, but I over the last year last month, I've seen it really pick up a lot more.
01:04:29
So it's cool.
01:04:31
We bring actually a lot traffic to our website from card collecting.
01:04:35
I'm certainly looking forward to anything that you can get out with that common.
01:04:39
And I know you are tied into baseball bedding, so I'm certainly looking forward to that.
01:04:44
Um make sure to follow Scott.
01:04:46
He has his twitter handle in his name.
01:04:50
There does no Follow me.
01:04:54
The up footer at Gordon von Denham, the breakdown of still in Twitter jail.
01:04:58
We're now two months in Twitter jail.
01:05:01
I think this is my longest sentence I've ever lived.
01:05:05
Um, so kind of sucks, but we're still doing well.
01:05:08
Website still rolling.
01:05:09
We're still pinot content.
01:05:10
Golf course set a soccer baseball we got you covered.
01:05:15
Fancy football.
01:05:16
Jeff has been doing a lot there.
01:05:18
Please check out the website www dot the breakdown sports dot com.
01:05:23
We have the banner roll across the bottom screen, full time about a merch store head over there.
01:05:29
You can check out from that.
01:05:31
But otherwise, that's all I got.
01:05:32
So enjoy the rest of the evening.
01:05:34
I will post this article.
01:05:36
Um, I will post the video in my article.
01:05:39
So if you want a chance to check out either of those that will be linked together that way you can go ahead.
01:05:45
And because while you're reading three in your mind, it's got a sweet voice.
01:05:49
Um, at least through that.
01:05:50
Like your bet.
01:05:51
So first, he is 7 a.
01:05:54
m.
01:05:55
on Pacific time on Thursday, But make sure to get all your full tournament that's in before that time.
01:06:02
Anything out from you? Nope.
01:06:05
Sounds good, man. Appreciate it.
01:06:07
After let go on behalf of myself and Scott, I am signing off here.
01:06:11
Uh, with the breakdown for two jw Jordan Whitney a k.
01:06:16
Gordon von Denham, I'd go ahead and signing off this

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