welcome everyone to fantasy foresight.
The podcast where your host and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com coming to you from the Rambo fixture Company studios.
I'm Ben and I'm Jay ready to get rolling J.
You know it. Let's do this.
All right, let's go.
Saturday, August 1st It is the early morning edition of Fantasy Foresight, the Podcast.
And this morning, Jay and I have Jay's got the boxing ring chewed up in the background.
I've got my coffee in hand and we're here to battle it out over the wide receivers in the tight ends of the exciting A F C West.
How you doing this morning, brother? Then I am doing great.
Look, it's gonna be a fun episode.
We're gonna have some some good battles on hand today, so hopefully it's fun for the listeners.
But you shared something with me you contact this morning.
That makes this a very special episode.
Two years ago today, we recorded our pilot episode and almost 100 and 50 episodes later.
Here we are, my brother.
It's a special day.
Let's have some fun and let's you're absolutely right.
You know what I'm a little disappointed that I discovered that stat when I did about it being a two years just exactly today because I was ready to fight you.
And now I just want to give you a hug.
So hopefully, as we get into these into these wide receivers and tight ends, that fighting feeling will come back.
Let's hug it out real quick.
We'll put the gloves on and get back to it.
Yeah, we'll do a quick office high five, and then we're gonna hit each other.
All right, let's go.
And it's, you know, it's gonna get started real fast Year right off the bat, first up real quick before we get into all this excitement.
Something that we don't do very well sometimes is to let you know all of this information.
If you like to read your information more than listen to your information, go to fantasy foresight dot com.
Go to the Foresight Encyclopedia tab.
Check out our guy Steve's great blawg work.
Hey, help supplement all the data on this podcast and he's really looking at play called tendencies, Red zone occurrences and efficiency and things of that nature.
Really, it's a great read Yeah, so in.
Make sure you go change so much mawr.
I mean, it is fantastic.
You really want an edge in your league in your preparation? I mean, Steve's really bringing it this season.
So great content.
Please go check it out of fantasy foresight dot com.
And we miss Stevo this morning, but we will have him back here on Wednesday.
Uh, and you know, just in case that your first time listening we are going to go in order of the all the fantasy relevant wide receivers and tight ends of the A F C West in order of their 80 p and 80 p.
Information we're getting is from fantasy football calculator dot com 12 according to 12 team PPR redraft settings and then all of our fantasy finishes.
We don't speak in season long terms.
We speak in terms of weeks one through 16 because that's your standard fantasy season on.
And that's all in full PPR format.
And I think that covers all the housekeeping J and now we can get right into it.
First up, going as Wide Receiver three.
At the 1 12 you have Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
He's currently going behind Michael Thomas and Davante Adams and in front of Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins.
The Chiefs have the eighth ranked strength of schedule for the wide receiver position.
That certainly helps have 1/12 best offensive line and his foresight aggregate projection is wide receiver for not bad.
Total foresight likes him.
Is wide Receiver five.
Also not bad, but there's gonna be a running theme about that wide receiver price.
Wide receiver. Three.
Price tag that I have an issue with last year.
Fantasy points per game.
He was wide receiver nine.
That's fine just now.
Wide Receiver 3 2018 That amazing season and fantasy points per game.
Six Again. Still not wide Receiver three.
And then in 2000 and 17 he was wide Receiver seven and fantasy points per game.
All those numbers are great, but again, they're not Wide receiver. Three.
Last year he missed four games.
It was wide receiver, 31 overall.
Had just 54 receptions on 84 targets for 799 yards.
Did have seven touchdowns and almost a 15 yards per reception average.
He got the ball on the ground a couple of times, wasn't able to do anything with that.
Ate Berries for 23 yards and no touchdowns.
Now here is the one stat, and I believe there is only one where he is top three and wide receiver, and that is percentage of top six finishes.
I have never debated the upside of Tyreek Hill.
It's the consistency and the up and down this, the Jeff to deal with that.
I have a bit of a problem with.
Ah, he was six and wide receiver, 1% 9th and wide receiver.
2% 5th and wide receiver, 3% yet just 24th in targets per game.
18th and consistency, 29th and consistency weeks 10 to 16 14th and foresight consistency in 25th in yards per reception.
Now he still was 11th and TD's and 18 in touchdowns per reception.
And according to next Gen stats, he was wide Receiver 11 and separation.
From player profiler dot com He was seventh in yards per out, sixth in target separation, fifth in fantasy points per out and in.
Steve gave us some notes through this podcast in his absence and said the Tyreke saw seven red zone targets and caught three red zone touchdowns.
Like I have said this entire time.
80 p wide receiver three.
Sorry not for me now.
He's not too much ****her down my list.
I do respect Tyreke as a rock solid wide receiver one.
But just look at the one guy going right behind him. Julio Jones.
Julio's consistency and season outwork are just playing better in 2020 in my does free cab elite.
Upside? Absolutely, but he was only 24th and targets per game last year.
And when you're taking a wide receiver this high, you better be able to count on a ton of targets each and every week.
And with Tyreke, you just can't.
And he's the type of player that has to be 100% healthy to effectively do what he does because he relies on huge breakaway plays and massive explosion.
I love the talent.
I love the offense, but at wide receiver three.
That's just a U two slots high for me.
You know, I want to put the gloves on and I want to start this battle right off the bat.
But, you know, I really can't argue a whole lot with that.
You know, you know, I'm a cheat, a fan of his football performances.
But, you know, like you said Wide Receiver three, I wonder if that's I wonder if that has to do Mawr with just the guys going behind him.
Julio is another year order, and I wonder if people just kind of expect him to start falling off it some point cause you just expect that from guys at some point in their career in DeAndre Hopkins.
You know, there's there's a big question mark on that offense.
So I wonder if it's mawr of just Mawr questioning.
The guy's going behind him, elevating his draft price more than anything.
Because you're right. I mean, he's dynamic.
But some of those stats been really surprised me.
I mean, you know, he doesn't get that the volume of targets, and if he did, I mean, maybe WR three is a possibility, but we don't know if he's going to get that volume and really, you know, seeing all the elite you know, percentages of third in top 6/6 and WR 1/9 WR to fifth and WR three.
And yet his inconsistency over the course of a season is just staggering.
You're right, Jay and I'd like to explain that disparity a little bit.
That comes into play because his points like hit, the reason that he's not so great and consistency is that his boom weeks are huge.
But then his his quiet weeks are nothing.
They're super quiet, way too quiet.
There is, you know, there's not a ton of regularity to his production.
And again, I I am a fan of the fantasy football player Tyreek Hill.
But I guess I just think Wide Receiver three the hypes a little bit out of control, and I think I just even at his age, I think Julio is a much safer option.
The Andres got his question marks, but man is, I want the 1 12 You're going, Tyree not mean.
And that's a little too hot.
Yeah, it is a little too high again.
WR 11 and separation with a guy with Olympic level speed also surprising.
I mean, there's just a lot sixth and target separation.
Okay, that's better.
But, man, just some really surprising statue threw out at us, and yeah, you know, I think that price had your Really You are really paying for the ultimate ceiling for a player and in the likelihood of him hitting and giving you a positive return on investment is just such a stretch.
At that point, it's difficult to see that coming to fruition.
All right, let's move on to our next guy, who is a very intriguing player this year, and that is Keenan Allen of the L. A Chargers.
He is going as WR 24.
So we're now at the back end of WR to level in the middle of the fifth around, and he is going behind guys like Tyler Lockett, Terry MacLaurin and ahead of the guy we're gonna cover here shortly in Courtland Sutton and then Stefon Diggs.
Currently, the Chargers pass catchers have the 14th best strength of schedule this season.
The Chargers have the 30th ranked offensive line, although that really doesn't impact wide receivers quite as much as other positions.
Now his foresight aggregate projection is W ar 15 and if you remember, I just mentioned he's going as W 24 drafts.
Total Foresight is giving the man a ton of respect for his career production in ranking him as WR eight now fantasy points per game over the last three years.
In 2017 he was WR four.
In 2018 he was WR 16.
And last season he bounced back with a finish of WR 11 in fantasy points per game.
Last season, he did not miss a game and finished WR eight overall.
He had 95 catches on 139 targets for over 1100 receiving yards and five scores.
He tacked on a few carries for about 16 yards, too, which was just icing on the cake.
Now let's go to some notable stat ranks.
He was 25th in WR 1%.
He was tied for 30th in WR 2% but then bounced back, tied for 15th and WR 3%.
He was seventh overall.
Inconsistency sixth inconsistency from weeks 10 to 16 and ninth and foresight consistency.
He was also ate and targets per game.
That volume, unlike Freak, is there for Keenan Allen.
Some notable stats from player profiler.
He was 10th in completed air yards all right, ninth in yards after contact, sixth in Red Zone receptions and just 24th and target accuracy and According to Steve's notes, he had 19 red zone targets and four touchdowns.
He's only had two seasons in his seven year career.
Cannot be right, only seven year career that his yards per reception have been higher than 12.3.
So he's never been some deep ball dependent guy anyways, and he only had five touchdowns last year.
Thus, it all comes down the targets.
He was seventh and targets with 139 last year.
Can that volume continue without Rivers? Well, Ben looked it up in last year as a starter.
Tyrod average 28 pass attempts per game.
Not a crazy low pass volume for a guy with a nice rushing floor.
Over the last five years in that Chargers offense, Rivers has averaged 36 pass attempts per game one.
That's not a terribly huge gap.
And to while I expect the Chargers to run a bit more this season since they only ranked 28th and team run plays per game according to player profile dot com, are we really supposed to believe that the offense is going to entirely morph into a run on the offense? I know Ben doesn't think so, and I'd have to agree with Bet on that.
And we all know with a with either Tyrod or a young quarterback whoever's behind center.
When when you have a porous offensive line and a new quarterback behind center in an offense, they tend to heavily rely on the most talented receiver in that offense.
In that for the Chargers is Keenan Allen.
Yeah, and I mean, there's ever you gotta look at every end of individual position.
Austin Ocular Hunter, Henry Keenan Allen, Mike Williams.
You got to see how each individual guy is going to be impacted by the specific transition from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor.
And now I went back and I really looked at Tyre AJ 2017 season.
And you know, with when it comes to Keenan Allen, I think a lot of this comes down to like you said volume, and that is going to be dependent a lot on the quarterback play.
So I wanted to look at the last situation that Tyrod was in as a starter in 2017.
No Bills wide receiver started more than seven games for Tyrod that season.
They ran shading McCoy 287 times in Charles Clay was his tight end that he actually made kind of fantasy relevant.
This situation for Tyrod is entirely different.
They might not have a running back hit 187 carries this season, let alone Shady's to 87.
I mean, and these are the best collection of weapons that Tyrod has ever had, and I don't think Keenan Allen's targets nor his yards per reception are coming down much at all with this transition from Rivers to tailor.
That said, I think you can get him even cheaper than wide Receiver 24 I love his value much more around 80 p.
Wide receiver, 29 30.
I don't mind its price at wide Receiver 45 but there are guys with less questions going around him, like Tyler Lockett in Portland.
In my opinion, then I I got a somewhat disagree with you here, but But it's it's too keen and Alan's benefit.
You know, I think the theme of what I've seen so far in these 80 Peas is the fear of the unknown driving, pricing down with guys in with Keenan Allen.
You know you've got an elite receiver WR Ford of your 11 wr 16 over the last three years.
He finished as WR a overall last season, so he's rock solid wr one.
Now you're getting them for really a mediocre WR three.
You know, our ah, high end of you are three back and WR, too.
So I think his price tag is fantastic in no matter who's behind center.
You mentioned it.
His yards per reception really has never been extremely high.
So even if Tyrod Taylor's in there and he's the check down King and going with short to intermediate routes, that's OK for Keenan Allen.
That's historically what he's been.
And we didn't have this amazing quarterback play in L.
So, really, could there be a little bit of drop off, depending on who is behind centre talent? Wise Shore? Fine.
But volume wise, I think volume could possibly increase a little bit for Keenan Allen.
He could be that safety blanket for teams, you know, like we see and DeAndre Hopkins.
You're here now.
Are these quarterbacks what Houston has? No.
But you see a premier player in mediocre offenses or or with quarterbacks that are young, relying on guys like Keenan Allen t move the sticks to be that safety blanket for guys.
So you know, getting back to your point.
You know Tyler Lockett.
I think there's a little bit of question mark heading into this season about what his role is going to be moving forward with.
Maybe DK Metcalf coming on a little bit more, and maybe they're tight ends staying healthy for a season and what we're going to talk about that when we get the way.
I disagree with you a little bit there.
But and Terry McLaurin? I mean that Washington offense.
We really don't know what to make with with how consistent he can be in Year two and the other pieces they've added.
I'd rather gamble on Keenan Allen Been Terror Macquarie.
That's exactly my point.
And Stefon Diggs in the Bills offense.
I love digs, but you know he's going to a Bills offense where I just don't know.
You know what his catch rates going to be, what his volumes going to be and how consistent he could be in that offense.
So really, in my feeling, Keenan Allen at least, is guaranteed the volume.
I know he can catch the ball as long as it's close to him.
So, you know, back at WR 24 I feel like I am getting a player with tremendous upside.
I feel like that's probably his floor that I'm getting him price wise in that, you know, it's really only up from there for him.
You know what? Your talking me into it, man.
80 p wide receiver 29 30.
I'm absolutely final thing at wide receiver 24 because if I can get him there that I'm ecstatic, well, you know you're getting of lower than its floor and honestly, like every other every other draft pick.
It's all relative to what you have done in your draft to that point.
So let your at the 507 you've had four picks so far.
If you went, say, running back, running back, running back to get your two running backs and a flex that you can start three running backs every week and you're addressing your wide receivers in the fourth and fifth round.
Keenan Allen as like the the last wide receiver to that's That's a pretty nice value.
I think I think I would prefer him to be my wide receiver three, because I'm greedy like that.
But, you know, even at a wide receiver to I agree with you, man, like the worst he is finished in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons is wide receiver 16 and you're drafting him as wide Receiver 24.
So there's room for him to experience a little bit of downturn with Tyrod.
And, like you said, if you're convinced that the volumes not going anywhere, then you're you're really convinced in the value of that pick at wide receiver 24.
I'm not exactly sure where that volume is gonna be.
I don't know if he's gonna be a Top 10 receiver in targets this season.
I'm not sure just because Tyrod might run the ball more and they might spread it out, I don't know, but I think overall I like the talent I think the situation is going to.
I think you've got a better chance of not returning value at a wide receiver for 24 price tag, so I think that that's the long and short of it.
Got some question marks there, somebody that I honestly have less question marks about heading into 2020.
Ring it on Me and Cortland Southern Corlin Son.
They're gonna knock you out.
Denver Broncos wide receiver one Courtland Sutton and Absolute Beast.
He is currently going one spot behind Keenan Allen and wide receiver, 25 at the back end of the fifth at the 5 11 spot.
That's wide receiver.
Ah, he is going in front of Stefon Diggs and A J.
Green and behind Terry McCord and Keenan Allen.
The strength of schedule for the wide receivers of the Denver Broncos is ranked 24th this year, and the offensive line is ranked 14.
The aggregate projection for Sudden is wide receiver 28 total.
Foresight likes him.
His wide receiver, 35 now.
Last season, he did finish his wide receiver, 24 in fantasy points per game.
He did not miss a game and finished as wide receiver.
18 overall in his second season, 68 catches, 116 targets over 1000 50 yards, 15.
6 yards per reception and six touchdowns.
This guy was 18 and wide receiver, 2%.
21st and wide receiver.
18th in yards per reception, 21st and targets per game.
Greater than 20 yards, 21st in place, greater than 20 yards per reception.
And all of this is compared to a wide receiver.
I'm not done yet.
According to player profiler dot com.
He was 11th indeed.
Targets 17th in yards, 16th in completed air yards, 17th in yards after catch, ninth and Red Zone receptions, 12th in yards per out, 10th in target distance.
Sixth in Dominator rating.
In Per Steve notes.
He had 19 red zone targets and only caught three Red Zone touchdown.
So there is a lot of room for that number to go up.
Courtland suffered awful Q B play almost all year evidence by his 64th ranked catch rate and 78th ranked catchable target rate compared to being charged with just three drops.
All right, this guy is an absolute beast who is just decent quarterback play away from breaking out entirely in setting this league on fire.
The deep dive into his number speaks for itself and if Drew Lock is even okay in 2020 Sudden could have a very nice season.
I love the talent.
He's a beast, and his new offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, should help him in that entire offense.
He is currently being drafted as a wide receiver, three nearly in the sixth round.
I love that about, you know, the price tag is what's going to save you in this conversation, my friend.
I was going to save me.
You know, I look Courtland something's a fine player and and he is a fine player to have on your fantasy team, and I'm not gonna discount that.
And I would be fine having him on my fantasy team as like, you know, a WR two or W R.
Three, but dropped as a WR three.
Okay, and that's what it is.
It all comes back to price tag, you know his volume from last season in his production from last season is kind of what I expect out of Courtland.
Sudden, 68 catches on 116 targets 1000 receiving yards, and he did that with mediocre quarterback play.
You said if Drew lot can be better than decent or decent quarterback.
Then it could go up, and that's a big if In my mind, I just don't know what to expect.
Broncos have struggled.
You know John Elway.
I got to say, I question his decision making in his position in that in that team because they've just been throwing darts at a dartboard, hoping one of them, you know, gets close to the center and they're throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.
And they just they've been missing so often that I just don't know.
I mean, they're almost becoming the Cleveland Browns quarterback play now, like they're just trying every option, and none of it's working.
So what I expect behind center this season? I really don't know, man.
I can't bank on Drew lobbying a good quarterback for that offense.
I hope it happens.
I like the Broncos, and I like the players on this team.
But for me, my expectation is him to do exactly what he did last season.
I don't know how much that can really go on.
I don't think it's significant.
So if he if he was WR 24 4 in points per game last season, and WR 18 overall.
I expect him to finish right around there, give or take a couple of spots.
But like you said, he's going as WR 25 drafts.
So really, you are getting him a little bit cheaper, and I think he will have a fine time.
Maybe eclipsing that.
But I just don't expect him to eclipse that by a significant margin.
That's fair in all seriousness.
He was wide receiver 18 overall with as bad of quarterback play season longest, and the best portion of that Bronco season was when Drew Lock was at the health.
There was no other five game span in that time where they went for, and one I have to look that up to confirm.
But based on their record, I don't see how that would be possible.
Eso You know, it's clear to me that he was the best of a very bad situation last season, and if he could be, if Courtland son could be wide receiver 18 and probably the worst situation you could be in, All he has to do is not be in the worst situation.
He could be in to have a very good chance heading into his third year to best his wide receiver 18 performance from last year.
And that's again compared to the wide receiver. 25.
Price, I think, is a rock solid wide receiver to going as a wide receiver.
Right? I I'm not gonna argue too much with that.
You know, I could see him get getting near 1200 receiving yards this season and maybe eclipsing that a little bit more.
So, you know, could he finishes WR 16 to be or 14 a high end of your to and you're getting him as a high end WR three.
The value was certainly there. Absolutely.
All right, let's move on to his teammate and rookie receiver Jerry Judy.
Now this one's gonna be interesting, too.
Right now, he's going as WR 42 at the very end of the ninth round, and he's going behind fellow rookie CD Lamb and then Darius Slaten and going in front of McColl, Hardman and Henry Rugs, a group of very high end rookie receivers all being drafted within five spots of one another.
Now, like I mentioned the or like Ben mentioned the Broncos wide receiving corps, has a 24th ranked strength of schedule for the past catchers in the 14th ranked offensive line.
His aggregate projection is WR 48 so he is being drafted a little bit ahead of what his aggregate projection is.
And total foresight is pretty close to his aggregate projection level at WR 51.
You know, his last two years at Alabama in 2018 he had 68 catches on 91 targets for over 1300 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in 2019.
He actually improved that on with 77 catches on 102 targets, a little bit higher volume a little bit lower on the yardage, about a little over 1160 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, according to Player Profiler.
His best comparison is Jeremy Macklin, which is fine.
Yeah, that's not neither here nor there.
It was such a Raiders move to make.
Henry wrote to take Henry Rugs, the second best wide receiver on his own college team, the number one receiver selected in the 2020 NFL draft at 12.
Overall, I get it.
He's fast, but just look at Judy's elite.
A week sec, the conference that he plays in.
Yeah, that's what that says on jury duty.
Elite SEC production.
As a junior, he was consensus first team All American, first team, all SEC Bullet, the Cough Award winner, and he led the SEC and touchdown catches as a senior.
He was first team All American.
Was Henry rugs ever any of those things? No.
Brugler is 2020 rookie WR two and says quote his combination of place, feed, break and balance skills and route savvy allow him to uncover anywhere he wants on the field, projecting as an impact NFL receiving target and quote.
I love the talent.
And since Ben Loves Drew lock, Judy is a great bet to return value at WR 42.
Right then, I mean, he's a better bed in my mind. To return Value.
A wide receiver 42 than Henry Rugs is to return. Value.
A wide receiver. 44.
You know rubs is getting some elite quarterback playing Derek Carr.
Oh, yeah, so elites Q B 25 or 26.
The best fantasy point per game finished over its last three years.
Judy Like Like he said, Man, it was the best wide receiver on his SEC Alabama team, and yet his faster teammate gets drafted ahead of him by Mr Knock on Wood.
If you're with me, so it's Ah, I don't know.
Jerry Judy, rookie right rookie wide receiver in this specific offense, I think I think Jerry Judy's biggest impact on fantasy this year is he's gonna help open up Courtland sudden a little bit more.
I don't know that there was a quality number two running alongside of Courtland Sutton for, Ah, great amount of time last year, and I think that the defense's knew that they could key on him and that he was their only option.
So I think you know whether or not Jerry Judy returns value a wide receiver 42.
I mean, I don't know.
I gotta be honest.
If he was in a different offense, I'd probably feel a little bit more excited about him.
This year is gonna be flex worthy some weeks, sure, but, um, you know, I don't know.
I'm just like I think I'm very high on Courtland Sudden, and I think Jerry Judy's biggest impact in fantasy and 2020 is going to be helping out Courtland Sudden, but long term, I think Jerry Judy is gonna be a fine option.
Well, you know, and look, I like Jerry Judy a lot.
I can see certainly why he is one of the absolute elite wide receivers coming into the NFL this season.
I think this offseason kind of hurts a lot of the rookie wide receivers about getting ingrained in that offense, learning everything but to his benefit.
Playing for such a great coach, a pro style offense in that style of that team.
I think that helps prepare him for the NFL level and knowing those offenses.
So, you know, we expect this Denver offense to take a step forward in 2020.
I don't think there's any doubt about that, But you know, we saw what Courtland Sutton was his rookie season in really a not great offense.
He finished as WR 60 in points per game and you know Jerry Judy, I think he will do better than that one.
I think he's probably a more elite talent.
Maybe then Courtland Sutton was coming out this offseason probably hurts him a little bit, But you know where he's being drafted.
That's kind of where I expect him to finish.
WR 42 I think that's a fine level.
Maybe he can even surprise us an eclipse that move into the third back end of the thirties a little bit.
But I think you're drafting him, you know, maybe closer to his ceiling.
But you know what? The guy's going around him.
I really like that crop of players.
So, like you said, I think he's a safer bet.
Then, baby, all five of the guys going or the four of the guys going around him.
Yeah, it really depends on what you're looking for.
At that point, your draft that pretty much the 10th round and you know, how is your draft been? Thus far you've been going? If you're going, been going crazy upside and you need a little bit more stability or perceived stability from the for from the expected safe target floor for Jamison Crowder? Or do you want to swing for the fences and go with somebody like our next guy who is currently going is wide receiver 43 at the piano to Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver second year Nicole Hardman.
Again, the Chiefs have a very strong eighth ranked strength of schedule at the wide receiver position.
A nice top 12 offensive line, I will say.
Meek whole Hardman is a very interesting case study for me.
I spent probably the most time trying to figure out my opinion and ****ysis on him verse anybody else in this podcast.
His aggregate projection for 2020 is wide receiver 64 compared to the wide receiver 43 price tag and his total foresight.
Rank is wide Receiver 69.
So that's the first thing that gave me some red flags in some pause.
He was only wide receiver 73 fantasy points per game in that Chiefs offense last year.
Now he didn't miss any time, but again, he was only wide receiver 64 overall.
He only had 25 receptions on just 40 targets, but converted those 25 receptions into for 508 receiving yards at a 20.
3 yards per reception average and converted those 25 receptions into six touchdowns.
Hey was second in yards per reception with that 20.
He was fourth in biggest play with 83 yards.
He was seventh in plays greater than 20 yards per reception, and he was first in touchdowns per reception.
Some interesting info from player profiler dot com.
Just remember he had a 433 40.
He was first in yards per target, third in Target separation better than his teammate Tyreek Hill with 11.
Uh, and he was first in quarterback rating when targeted.
You know the high touchdown per reception kind of plays into that, but it's it's worth noting on in the self assessment portion of the Chiefs off season.
You have to think they see the benefit in attempting to involve MECO Hardman Maurin that offense in 2020.
Now I will say that just 40 total targets, diminished usage in the second half of the season and very limited usage in three playoff games.
All gives me a bit of pause even in that offense, even at wide receiver 43.
But speaking in terms of pure upside, he is a nice shot to take in the 10th round that you can cut after a couple weeks if his routes run and targets aren't there after the first week virtue of the season.
He's not necessarily someone I'm targeting, but he's a fine option at a reasonable at a reasonable price if you're projecting him to take a step up this year, all right, that you know what? I am very surprised.
That's a very reasonable approach.
I thought you were going to come in strong and be like Vehicle Hardman. Bye bye bye.
So this is a tough one, man.
It's, you know, again very similar to Jerry.
I feel like where he's being drafted is exactly where I expect him to finish this season.
So, you know, again, you're getting a guy who you're drafting kind of at his ceiling and you've seen the inconsistency.
You expect some growth this season.
He isn't a much better offense, which is, you know, if you're looking, if you're comparing two guys, that's certainly a nice tie breaker.
I'd much rather have ah player in this Casey offense, I suppose, um, in the guise going around him.
Look, dairy slayings, fine.
He's probably a smart pick.
He's just not a guy that I'm going to probably take a lot in drafts But I probably trust maybe Mako Hartmann's production this season, more so than Henry Rugs in his rookie season.
And certainly probably Jamison Crowder as well.
Um, at least at least Nicole, like you said, You know, if you if you recall he was drafted his kind of Tyreke white because we didn't know if Tyreke was going to play that season.
So they're almost drafting his replacement.
And and that's exactly what we've seen.
Limited targets, extremely dynamic player who makes the most of those opportunities.
Big play kind of guy.
A speedster does get in the end zone at times, So I like that I like that much more.
Um, but, you know, if you if you need a home run hitter at this point and drafts, then absolutely a great flex plate a stream in there a times, and to try to take advantage of some of that big playability, you're absolutely right.
I think we both agree that there's nobody with more upside at that point in the draft in this tier of five wide receivers than Michael Hardman.
Um, I do disagree with you a little bit.
That wide receiver, 43 is his ceiling, I think with just having 40 targets last year.
If they come out and just consistently give this guy, you know, five targets a game, you know, five times 16.
What's that? 80 targets.
I mean, that's double his targets from last year if they just target him five times a game.
So you know you're gonna be able to This is the benefit of me, Cole Hardman.
And I've heard this concept talked about on other podcasts is that, you know, sometimes it's good at this point your draft to differentiate guys and help make a make a tiebreaker, Be the fact that you're going to be able to very quickly get your answer on Mico Hartmann's usage this season.
Within the first week or two, you're gonna have your question answered.
Is it gonna be just like last year where he's very not very used, or is it gonna be? He has five plus targets each of the 1st 2 weeks, and you know, boom, we're off to the races like we're already on pace, which is 10 targets in the 1st 2 weeks.
You are already on pace to double his targets from lassies man, you know, in that offense, you still have freak.
You still have Kelsey, you still have Sami.
Where is get a stack up? I don't want to call him a gim**** receiver because that's not what he is.
I mean, I'm sure he's gonna have a role defined role on this offense.
But like you don't have a specialist.
That's a return.
Yes, a specialist.
But again, how much consistent volume is he going to get? Week to week is the question my and said, There's a lot of easy room for that number to go up.
So, like it's he's very enticing.
He's very interesting.
It all comes down to usage for this guy.
Is he going to give them the confidence needed to take a step in that target share? If that answer is yes, you're going to get a crazy value of wide receiver 40.
All right, let's move on.
Let's do some battle over Henry rugs.
You know, I know Ben hates the Raiders, but I love him.
I love the Raiders.
Let's go, baby. Let's go with the speedster.
All right, Henry rugs is it is currently being drafted.
His WR, 44 in the middle of the 10th round.
He's going around this group.
We've been talking about Jerry, Judy, Meco, Hardman.
Then it's Henry rugs.
Then it's Jamison, Crowder and Christian Kirk.
The Raiders pass catchers have the 28th range strength of schedule.
Now they do have the 11th ranked offensive line, which does help a little bit.
His aggregate projection right now is WR 52 total foresight doesn't like the Rangers either, because we need to fix their acronym and do some stuff behind the scenes to get them.
The Raiders loaded into the system his last two years of Alabama.
Now we told you about his teammate in, uh, Jerry, Judy, Thank you.
I was gonna make up his name and Jerry Judy and what he did in his last two years of Alabama.
So let's move on to Henry drugs and tell you what he did.
In his last two years of Alabama in 2018 he had 46 catches on 62 targets for 741 yards in 11 scores.
The touchdown production was nice, and he did have about half the production of what Jerry.
Judy did in 2018.
Now we move on the 2019.
Jerry Judy took a step forward in volume.
What did Henry rugs do? He had fewer catches and fewer targets.
In 2019 he had 40 catches on 53 targets, but he did increase his yardage to 746 yards and seven touchdowns.
Some notable next gen stats.
He was WR six and average yards after catch.
That is in the wrong room.
Okay, disregard that.
I was going to say I don't know if that was a college stat.
It would be an injury.
Is that for Sammy? Sure.
All right, I'm gonna check on that and find out. Okay.
Live show. Everybody calm down.
Some notable stats from player Profiler.
He did have a 4.
27 40 yard dash, but his best player comparison is marquees.
Now, listen, listen, Mark, They're both fast.
That is very true.
Is you know, outside of the 36 concussions, Marqise Goodwin probably could have had a stellar career in the NFL.
He certainly was when he was healthy and on the field all right.
Like I said, this is such a Raiders pick.
I always talk about teams and fantasy players getting caught up in the shiny new toys, and I think that's what Jon Gruden did when he saw that 4.
It's really interesting that the Raiders different coaching staffs, different management, same pigs every season.
I can just hear him, man, that guy can fly.
Dude, we need that speed, man.
Not gone would if you're with me.
Raiders 24th and team pass plays per game and 25th and deep ball attempts.
Will he be used any more frequently than he was in college? Be the most targeted wide receiver on his team? Uh, the most productive wide receiver on his team.
Can Darren Car even throw the ball deep? Well, it be a first for rugs car, and that whole offense under Gruden, I couldn't have said it better myself.
I mean, you know, Henry drugs, super fat.
How many times have we seen the Raiders do this? Oh, I know.
I mean, Gruden or not, they just know fastest wide receiver in the drug said, no matter who's coaching, it doesn't matter whose owning the team.
It doesn't matter whose it's It's the same thing everywhere.
Like how well is that worked out for you in the past? How well is it worked out for Marqise Goodwin? How well is it gonna work for Henry rugs? I don't know, But again, you're talking about a speedster Deep ball threat in an offense not known for pushing the ball down the field.
So this Raiders offense is going to have to totally re define itself for Henry rugs to be what he needs to be to return even weekly value on your fantasy team In the NFL S O.
He was never the study on his own Alabama team.
It will be very interesting to see what kind of role he plays.
He might be a fine NFL wide receiver.
I don't know how much of a fantasy value he's ever gonna translate into.
And definitely not in 20.
Yeah, you know, let me summarize.
Henry, Russ, I love Henry rugs and I love the pick.
You know, I like him as a receiver.
I like his potential And what he could be in the NFL.
And in that Raiders off it's even but really right now to start his career.
Best ball, late round pick.
Sure find our throw dynasty.
Love it, but redraft.
You know, going into this season, I just I want to see what he's gonna be in that offense of what that offense is gonna be to kick off 2020 before I'm really willing to invest anything.
So I would certainly have him on my on my watch list to see what it's gonna be.
But, you know, in the 10th round, boy, you know, even later in drafts, if you want to take him as a dark throw hoping that he can hit fine.
But you know, it's more of a wait and see approach for me at this point.
Yeah, especially when you consider the fact that around later there are four wide receivers that I would take ahead of Henry rugs in 2020 and it starts with our next guy.
And that may surprise you.
I am talking about Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
No, me, right? No.
So, no, he's clearly going at wide receiver 50.
Never been cheaper at the 11 wait behind Jalen Reagor.
Sterling Shepard and in front of Anthony Miller into Sean Jackson.
Other than Deed Jacks, I'm taking off for those guys over Henry rugs in 2020.
And it's not close.
Like Meco Hardman, like Tyreek Hill benefits from Pat Mahomes benefits from the eighth ranked strength of schedule at the wide receiver position.
Benefits from Andy Reid benefits from the 12th ranked offensive line.
And total foresight likes him as wide Receiver 48 which is a flex worthy player better than his wide receiver price tag.
His aggregate projection is wide Receiver 51.
Keep those ears open because I've got some stats for you.
Okay, he made these next three all right, okay and fantasy points per game when Mahomes was Mahomes, and two years ago in 2018 he was wide receiver 39 in fantasy points per game.
Again, compare that to a wide receiver.
Last year, he was only wide receiver 52 in fantasy points per game.
But I'm going to tell you why I figured that answer out.
He missed two games last year and was wide receiver 46 overall.
Caught, 51 Caught 51 passes on 88 targets for 665 yards, 13 yards per reception and three touchdowns.
He was 26th in top 6% in 37th in targets per game.
Compared both of those stat numbers to the wide receiver.
50 price tag alone.
And he seems worth it to me as faras player profiler dot com goes.
He was only on three injury reports in all of 2019.
J probably his career best.
And in Steve Steve's notes, he did cease only six red zone targets and caught one red Zone touchdown.
Now I have got the hottest wide receiver stat in fantasy football for the last feeling.
Are you ready for this hot take coming? No, this is not Take this is hot fax.
Prior to Mahomes injury last season, Sammy Watkins averaged average 9.
3 targets per game versus just 4.
2 targets per game.
After Mahomes is injury.
You talked on the last episode J very accurately about whom Holmes was before and after that dislocated kneecap in the middle of the season.
I mean, that's ah impacted Sammy Watkins as much as anybody else on that team.
And if you took 9.
3 targets per game, which was more than half season sample size for him, that would have been good enough in that metric last season for wide receiver.
Eight, Sir Wide Receiver, eight in targets per game in the whole, wide receiver position is targets.
Targets are King, and he would have been a thin targets per game.
I love the potential of Mico Hardman, but even more than that, I love the actual usage of Sami.
Just last year, when Mahomes was healthy and as Mahomes got healthier into the playoffs when it mattered the most, let's compare Sammy Watkins Amico, Hardman.
Shall we Sammy Watkins average 95 receiving yards per game in three playoff games? What Amico Hardman don't do Jay.
He averaged just 10 yards per game.
I mean, almost 10 times the production from Sammy Watkins over Mico Hardman when it mattered the most when Pat Mahomes was right once again for the first time since he dislocated that kneecap.
This may shock you, Jay, but at wide receiver 50 I am all in on and actively targeting Sammy Watkins in 2020.
You know, again, price tag saves you from us, duking it out about Sammy Watkins because, you know, at WR 50 your right, look at the usage.
Look at the potential, especially in comparison to be cool.
Hardman, Like you said, I love the actual production versus the potential.
I want to see the actual fantasy scoring, not the potential fantasy scoring.
I need points week to week.
And you know, the obviously Sammy's big knock is his health.
And if he can stay on the field in like you said he was only on three injury reports last season and miss two games, that's probably the best over at least the last five or six years.
I mean, it's been a while, you know? I mean, Sami can be a fine player.
Am I targeting him? God, I just can't bring myself to do it to be like, all right, I am definitely going for Sammy Watkins.
However, at that price, like if I get to that point in drafts, I mean, I do like him a little bit more than Nicole Hardman is is painful.
A zit is to own Samia times it is specially think like a win for me.
I'm sure it will be, but, you know, But Anthony Miller, I brother take Sammy Watkins.
Obviously do Sean Jackson. Heck, no.
Jalen Reagor is a big question mark in that Philly offense.
You know, I put him or kind of in that same categories McColl way.
You have to like, you have to, like, take a gamble, but, you know, again, Carimi compare Mico Hardman.
Jalen Reagor, Jalen regulars Almost guaranteed to have at least twice as many targets is me cold.
You're absolutely but But again, we're talking about taking somebody in the 11th round and it comes down to What do you need? Do you want upside and in the unknown? Or do you want some rock solid production, which you know Sammy's gonna get and he can get elite level production sometimes.
So, you know, he was already 26 last season in top 6% right? All right.
You know, you know you're gonna get a positive return on investment, assuming he can stay healthy, so yes, certainly.
Certainly a good pick.
Now, somebody, I think, was some more question marks about what he's going to be this season is L a Chargers wide receiver, and that's Mike Williams.
Right now, Mike Williams is going at a discounted price, probably at W R.
59 at the beginning of the 14th round, and we mentioned it before in our league of record.
The 14th round is the final round of draft picks, and he's going behind Michael Pittman, Junior Golden Tate and going in front of Breshad, Perriman and Hunter Renfroe.
The Chargers have the 14th ranked strength of schedule for the past catchers and the 30th ranked offensive line.
His aggregate projection right now is WR, 44 Mike Williams is being drafted his WR 59 So the expectation is that he will outpace his current price tag.
Total foresight actually likes him a little bit better at WR 42.
So fantasy points per game for Mike Williams.
Over the last three years in 2017 he only had 22 targets in nine games.
So really, you gotta throw that one out the window.
In 2018 he was WR 43 in points per game, and in 2019 he was WR 48 points per game, again both closer to his actual value than what his current price tag is.
Last season, he missed one game and he was WR 39.
He had 47 catches on 85 targets for almost 1000 receiving yards, and he only had two touchdowns.
So there is some potential for growth there if he gets in the end zone.
And that could certainly make up for any drop off in yardage.
Now some notable ranks.
Inconsistency, 22nd inconsistency from weeks.
10 to 16 24th and foresight.
That's a back end, WR two and foresight. Consistency.
He was first, first number one overall in yards per reception.
He was 13th and plays greater than 20 yards and fifth in place greater than 20 yards per reception.
He was also first number one overall in the NFL in targeted air yards.
Some additional stats from player profiler.
He was eighth in deep targets 14th and completed air yards, fifth in yards per target.
First again, number one overall, an average target distance.
He was also he also had he tacked on 15 red zone targets.
It only had one red zone touchdowns.
So again, some potential growth there.
And according to Steve Notes, Mike Williams, Red Zone touchdown conversion rate in 2019 was 7% versus 46% in 2018.
So again, room to improve Mike Williams has proven to be a big play.
Deep ball talent.
I mean, the guy was first in yards per reception last year after finishing 16th in that stat category in 2018.
But there are legit concerns about whether or not Tyrod could actually accurately push the ball downfield, as his career completion percentage is just 61.6%.
His career seven yards per re 10th attempt would have been Q B 25 in that stat category last year.
And I worry that those specific stats make Mike Williams with one guy on this offense who will struggle to thrive the most with the transition to Tyrod due to some natural incompatibility of their respective skill sets.
Plus, even at the W R 59 price, there's still several nice wide receiver options.
Even at that point, I prefer over Mike Williams.
Yeah, man, I mean that we I already touched on it.
We touched on it earlier in the last podcast.
So much of the complementary pieces and all the offense of non quarterback weapons in the charters offense comes down to the specific transition from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor.
And that is why, especially when it comes to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were talking so much about Tyrod, Tina Allen and Mike Williams.
Air two very different type of players.
Mike Williams is, is a deep ball guy.
Keenan Allen is the possession guy who gets a ton of targets because he could get himself open better than anybody on the team, so they scheme him into the most targets of the wide receivers.
Mike Williams has a far greater potential to suffer because of the transition from Philip Rivers to Tyrod, because Philip Rivers and the nature of his game is just a deep ball reckless gun slinger where he's just gonna throw it down the field, down the field, down the field, done matter out bad is touchdown.
Interception ratio is is gonna keep Chako.
That's not tie rods game and probably, you know, for the better for that Chargers offense.
Um, I just Mike Williams the talent again.
I love I love it.
But when you pair him specifically with Tyrod Taylor, it's the biggest question mark for me amongst the Chargers offense like we still have Hunter Henry to talk about.
We talked about Austin, eh? Killer? We talked about Keenan Allen.
I really don't have a near as big of a fear about Tyrod impact on those guys, as I do with Mike Williams.
Like it just it scares me away, and Golden Tate's an immense value.
At that point in the draft, you want talk about safety volume boom.
Michael Pittman, upside rookie That could see a lot of those reckless, deep Philip Rivers targets over there in Indiana this year.
Breshad Perriman Hate the offense, loved the talent, and Hunter Renfroe will get to him in the second.
Um, so I mean, there there still to definitely two wide receivers, albeit going in front of him.
Ah, that I would prefer around Mike Williams.
You know, at that point, you know, we mentioned it.
Ben Keenan Allen averaged 11.
8 yards per reception last season and Mike Williams averaged 20.
5 yards per reception.
Does that suit more? Tyrod Taylor? I mean, you know.
So I'm with you, Mike Williams.
Now, listen, he entire Rod will connect from time to time, and he is destined to hit some home runs.
I have no doubt about that.
But again, I'd much rather have that player on my best ball roster than my actual fantasy roster.
So I'm probably look with you.
I'm staying away from Mike Williams a little this season, and somebody else can take on that risk.
Yeah, I'm with you there now.
I found the, uh, I found the player to whom that mystery stat belong to From Can we rugs earlier? And believe it or not, it was Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver J.
He's currently going is wide receiver 61 in the at the 14 07 behind Mike Williams, behind Breshad Perriman in front of Alan Lazard and Larry Fitzgerald.
We talked about the 28th range strength of schedule that the Vegas Raiders have a to wide receiver position.
We talked about their 11th ranked offensive line.
The aggregate projection for Hunter Renfroe is right in line with this price tag.
A wide receiver, 60 he finished as a rookie as wide receiver 61 fantasy points per game.
He did miss three games and was also wide receiver 61 overall.
I mean, the guy thing.
Last year he performed, Let me see again.
Where? Where he finished in points per game.
Me, Cole Hardman last year finished his wide receiver, 73 fantasy points per game.
Ah, Hunter Renfroe finished as wide receiver 61 fantasy points per game.
Hunter Renfroe had a better season.
The MECO Hardman Last year.
7 yards per reception.
You know about half assed Muchas Michael Hardman, but hey, that suits his boy Derek Carr and three touchdowns.
Notable stat rings.
Hunter Renfroe was 19th in catch rate because you know it's a lot easier to complete a two yard pass, and it is a 20 yard pass now where where we get into specifically Hunter Renfroe talk and no longer bashing Derek Carr.
Hunter Renfroe was wide receiver three in separation.
Wow coating the next Gen staff.
Wow, I'd receiver three.
He was wide receiver six in average yards after catch above expectation, the man can get open the man can create with the ball in his hand and notable stats from player profiler dot com.
He was 13th in Red Zone receptions, seventh and catchable target percentage in 16th in catch rate.
Now Hunter Renfroe deserves more respect than our guy Steve gave him earlier in the off season when he said he could play slot wide receiver better than Renford id into the US in 19.
J Quote right there.
But as as a fantasy option, even as a nearly free dart throw, I'm just not looking to roster Hunter Renfroe.
But I will say he did have a couple of nice stats in 2019.
That still gives you a glimmer of hope that he can build on his rookie campaign.
And I gotta say at all the wide receivers in that offense for the Raiders this year, he might be your safest bet because it plays right into their cars, thinking dunks die.
Yeah, I mean again, you know I can understand, like you said he had a better fantasy season that Nicole Hardman, but he's going way behind him and draft because he's just not.
He's not that flashy name you know, he's kind of that I don't.
Steve Steve Shade on him earlier this season just plummeted his ADP.
I would you know, in my mind, Hunter Renfroe and various Leighton are almost very similar categorically in my brain, they're just they're probably smart plays.
They're just not, like, flashy, you know, the big name, the new rookie, like the highly drafted guy, But they're probably very smart place.
Um, but they're just not guys I target.
You know, you may end up with them, but I'd rather pick them up off the free agent pile than actually invest draft capital in them.
And that's just that's where I am with it.
All right, let's move on to some Let's get back into the elite.
Know what? Speaking of the elite this maybe, And I haven't taken a look at it yet.
This may be the best collective division of tight ends in all of the NFL, Jay.
I mean, as far as projections go, this this division four for four has tight end.
One projections are Wow, Go ahead.
My oh my God, Let's dive in.
All right, here we go.
First up, you would expect it.
It's Travis Kelsey, Kansas City Chiefs Tight end.
I can't wait to dive into these stats.
He is currently being drafted as tight end one in the middle of the second round on average, and obviously he's going number one, so no one's going ahead of them going right behind him.
George Kittel, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz.
That's the order right now.
The Chiefs have their pass catchers have the 24th rank strength of schedule.
They have specific to tighten that is specific to cite ends.
Okay, the tight ends have the 24th right? I don't really mind that it's Travis Kills.
Trust what? Ever throw that out the window? They had 12 offensive line.
Okay, His aggregate projection right now tight and one total foresight.
Ring tight and won his last three seasons tight and one tight end.
One tight end to enough said he didn't miss a game last season.
He had 94 catches on 131 targets for over 1200 receiving yards at the tight end position, a 12.
8 average five touchdowns, and he also had one rushing attempt for four yards and a touchdown.
Okay, Jesus, let's just Listen, everybody, if you're watching, sit down and just soak this in.
Travis Kelsey was first inconsistency at the tight end position.
First inconsistency Weeks.
10 to 16 1st and foresight.
Consistency for second in top 6% 1st in tight on one side and 1% 1st in receptions.
Second in Target's first in yards, sixth in yards per reception.
Third in plays over 20 yards.
Might be surprising for you.
Fifth in touchdowns and second and target for game.
I mean, just elite elite numbers.
It really is not going to get any better than that.
His best comparison, according to player profiler Gronk, that is highly sense.
Um, Travis Kelsey also was second in deep targets at the tight end position first and completed air yards, third and yards after contact 11th and red zone receptions that could actually increase fifth in yards per target.
And on Lee 2nd I'm sorry, but second and drops.
He did have seven drops, so that can actually improve for sure.
According to Steve's notes, he had 19 red zone targets and only three red zone touchdowns.
His red zone efficiency ranked 21st so it's actually easy to see how that, at that result, in positive regression, that could actually increase as well.
So Travis Old Truck, Wow, Travis Kelsey is so great that he doesn't even really get compared to tight ends.
He gets compared to a wide receivers, Remember? Despite this beast having just six total touchdowns in that explosive Kansas City offense, his 2019 numbers still would have been good enough for PPR.
Wide receiver, six overall in wide receiver, eight and fantasy points per game.
His second ranked 131 targets aren't going anywhere.
And in two years with Mahomes, Kelsey's average 12.
8 yards per reception while catching an average of 70% of his targets.
And remember last year Kelsey was third in plays greater than 20 yards with 13.
So again, I don't see how he doesn't score well over six touchdowns this season.
This may be a better year than most to invest in a second or third round equity.
And Kelsey, I don't know why exactly.
Well, I guess I do.
It's all these numbers that make me feel like Kelsey is in, even by Kelsey standards for a monster season, and I think that's because his receiving touchdowns could double or better this year, Bubble vanished.
His his just targets aren't going anywhere.
The yards per reception aren't going anywhere.
They catch rates not going anywhere except maybe up because the man like, somehow dropped the ball seven times last year.
I'm all in on Kelsey, and I'm not.
I'm not early tight end guy.
I like the pun on the position and wait because historically we've covered it on our 80 p study episodes.
Historically, about 50% of actual tight end ones either go undrafted or are drafted outside the top 12 pied ends.
So for that reason, I historically punt on the tight end position and in because there's chock full of late round upside values out there.
However, this is the one guy that, if you're going early at the tight end, position is worth it.
I mean, last year, PPR Wide receiver six, and I mean you double is touchdowns, and that's going upto like wide receiver three, man.
And that's what the homes really missing a couple of games and not being right for the second half of the season.
And you know, that's with backup quarterback in there for a couple of games.
He could be a safety blanket if either there is a backup.
He is so production proof, it's really because if they have a backup, if Mahomes isn't right, they lean on him to move the chains.
When he is right, they still move on him.
They still lean on him to move the chains.
Look at his deep ball person.
I mean, it's just its.
The touchdowns can increase the red zone.
Efficiency can increase, and he can't even be even better.
Right now he's being priced Ben right around WR six like he's going where his value is for sure.
Every single fantasy football player is a math problem.
Travis Kelsey and is an extremely easy math problem.
Let's go on to a much more difficult math problem in the Los Vegas Las Vegas Raiders, then Darren Waller.
I was hating on donators, man.
I just said it is a difficult math problem.
He is another one that was very hard.
You know, I go back and forth on Darren Waller constantly, so it is a very difficult one.
He did burst onto the scene in 2019 and because of that, he's currently going is tight and five at the end of the fifth round, behind Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz.
And in front of Gronk and Evan Ingram.
The tight ends for the Raiders have the 25th ranked strength of schedule in the 11th ranked offensive line, his aggregate projectionist tight and four.
So he's he's projected ahead of where he's being drafted.
He was tight and nine in fantasy points per game last season.
He didn't miss a game.
He was tied and five overall hauled in 84 catches on 107 targets for over 1000 yards in over a 12 yard per reception and average.
He added just three touchdowns.
I say just three touchdowns because on 84 catches and being a big body red zone guy like that, that's not a lot.
But that offense can be partially to blame for that, so I don't know how much chance of that there.
I don't know if they could go up.
He was third in tight and consistency last year.
Sixth inconsistency weeks 10 to 16 3rd Enforce I consistency fifth in top 6% 3rd and tight and 1% 3rd and tight and receptions.
Third in tight and targets sixth in targets per game.
Second in yards, eighth in yards per reception, third in plays greater than 20 yards and seventh in touchdowns at player Profiler he was fifth.
Indeed, targets fourth in completed air yards, second and yards after catch and also 11th in Red Zone receptions.
He was second in yards per target, seventh and catch rate, 10th in catchable targets but also second in drops.
Just like Kelsey with seven, his catch rate was was great.
Overall, his target share was great, but his touchdowns were low.
So while it is possible, his touchdowns increase and or he still leads this team in targets one I still don't like tying myself to this offense.
All kidding aside and to this team drafted target competition for Darren Waller at 12 overall, 80 overall in 81 overall, one high end first in 2/3 rounders, all invested on wide receivers.
So if his volume goes down, you need that touchdown production to go up just to live up to what he did last year in this offense is improved touchdown production.
What you're hanging your Waller confidence on because I'm nothing but hesitant on his 2020 outlook at the end of the fifth slash top of the six.
Now I will say Steve makes a great counterpoint in his notes that Waller caught only two of 10 red zone targets.
But since he was the only viable pass catcher, other weapons could make it easier for Waller to get open this season.
And and that's where that's why it's just so I'm so back and forth on him either way.
And like I just mentioned, I am usually want to go very late at the tight end.
So for me personally, when you're talking about a late fifth early six, Darren Waller is not who on placing my bet on this season.
You know, I like Darren Waller.
He was obviously a huge surprise and fantasy last season and had an elite season with his production.
But I with you, you know, Look, we just talked about Henry rugs not too long ago, and I really like his talent in his deep ball ability, and you really read some eye opening stats, bend fourth and completed air yards, fifth and deep targets, you know, for for Darren Waller.
Well, now they brought in a deep ball target specialist.
They brought in a speed burner, somebody who can get downfield.
So I wonder if Henry rugs actually takes away from some of Darren Waller's targets.
Targeted air yards, deep ball receptions and some of that yardage.
Overall, I could see him certainly regressing an overall yardage.
And and maybe, you know, I I don't think rugs is going to be as much of a red zone target.
So I think maybe Darren Waller becomes, hopefully a little bit more efficient.
As as defense is, keep an eye on the speedster rugs in the red zone and that maybe could free him up from for increasing his red zone percentage in his conversion rates.
So while touchdowns could help offset some of his production drop off again, I am just concerned that he won't be able to quite match his production, at least in fantasy scoring from last season.
He could get close.
It's just, you know, I'm sure he's going to finish in the top 12 at the position, but I'm being asked to pay Ah, fifth round price tag for him, and that's just a difficult proposition, which is exactly what you were alluding to.
Yeah, I don't really have anything else to add on him.
He's a He's a conundrum, for sure.
It wouldn't surprise me if he returned value where he was at.
I It wouldn't surprise me a ton if he would surprise me a little bit if you return value.
Eri was that in that offense this year? But, like you said, if he falls, a little bit of obviously becomes more and more attractive because it's all relative, the price tag.
But again, if that if that late 50 early six round tack holds, I'm going a different All right, let's move on to Hunter Henry, who is the tight and 10 in drafts right now.
He's being drafted behind Evan Ingram, behind Hayden Hurst and in front of Jared Cook and Noah Fan.
The tight ends for the Chargers have the 21st ranked strength of strength of schedule this season, and the 30th ranked offensive line Hunter Henry is projected as tight and seven, and his total foresight rank is tight.
And five the last couple seasons for 100.
Henry He was tight end, 12 in points per game in 2017 did not play in 2018 and was tight end eight and fantasy points per game in 2019.
Last season, he did miss four games coming off of injury and was tight and nine over all.
Despite missing four games, he had 50 catches on 70 targets in 12 games and for 610 yards, a 12.
2 yards per reception average and four touchdowns.
Now let's go through some of his stats.
He was a thin consistency, 11th and consistency from weeks 10 to 16 12th and foresight consistency.
He was eighth and top 6% at the position and fifth and tight end 1%.
He was 10th and reception 11th and targets eighth and targets per game.
Ninth and yards, ninth and yards per reception, sixth in plays greater than 20 yards and sixth and touchdowns at the position.
His best comparison, according to player profiler, is Zach Ertz.
Not a bad comparison.
He was 11th and deep targets fifth, incomplete and air yards, sixth and red zone receptions, ninth in yards for Target first and target quality 11th and Dominator ranking.
And according to Steve's notes, he caught four touchdowns out of 10 red zone targets for 40% conversion.
Does Hunter Henry have a bit of an injury history? Absolutely.
But when he's back, he is back.
He missed weeks 2 to 5 last year, but in weeks six when he came back, he was tight end one overall in rattled off five of his six games as top 10 tight end or better.
And with a quarterback like Tyrod coming in, I truly believe the quality and quantity of the running backs and tight end targets are relatively safe.
And Rivers was not good last year, just 16th and accuracy and 36 touchdown to interception ratio.
I say that the point out that Tyronn doesn't have to do March to sustain to sustain 2019 rivers level production and running back and tight end throws plate into Tyrod straight in the late eighth early ninth round at tight end 10.
While there are definitely guys going around him, I prefer Mawr.
He's not a bad option at his price tag at all.
Not every injury prone player is created equal, absolutely.
You know, like I said, Tyree gets a little hampered in a game, and all of a sudden he's not even same guy.
You know Giggs to same thing? Absolutely.
However, with Hunter Henry, though he has been injured frequently.
Every time he comes back, he balls out.
No, there's no lingering effects.
And who's his comparison? Zach Ertz, Which is exactly this compound of him? Yeah.
Now I will say there was a lot of interesting guys going around him.
No way I'm taken.
Evan Ingram over Hunter Henry Hayden Hearst is probably my favorite guy in that group.
Jared Cook has some upside, but I still I would prefer Hunter Henry.
And then we're about to talk about the last guy on that list.
You'll find out how I feel about him in just a second, but again, it's, you know, they're There are guys that are better, but these 80 peas very from league, the league.
And if all of a sudden hunter Henry still hanging out in the late 19th early 10th and dropping down to maybe tight and 13 or 14 or something like that, I would just by his name alone.
I don't see that happening right you know he's he becomes a you cannot not take him type of guy if he slides a few more spots compared to where he's going.
Because he even even with the change from Rivers to Tyrod, even with the injury concerns, he's still very fairly price and probably still a little bit of a value at the tight end.
Now, you know, at the end of some of these episodes were arguing between the likes of Drew Lock and Derek Carr.
Not every division is created equal.
That's why sometimes you start with one position group and with the other because you know we want to end pretty strong.
Well, thankfully, for Denver Broncos tight end.
No, a fan, he is going to ensure that we end this podcast on an exclamation point.
I love no offense heading into 2020 after my research over the last couple of months.
He's currently going is tight and 12 at the 10 02 behind Hunter Henry and Jared Cook in front of Austin, Hooper and TJ Hawkinson.
The tight ends for the Broncos have the 20th ring strength of schedule, and he benefits from the 14th ranked offensive line.
His aggregate projection is tied in 12.
Total foresight only likes him, is tight and 29 I have to say it's one of the biggest disagreements I have.
With total foresight heading into 2020 he was only tight and 25 fantasy points per game.
I get that he didn't miss a game and he was only tight and 17 overall.
But remember, this guy's a rookie and rookie tight ends typically struggle in the NFL, and this guy did anything but that, and I'm gonna walk you through the intricacies of why I say that.
He had 39 receptions on 64 targets for 558 yards at an average of 14.
3 yards per reception.
It's better than a lot of wide receiver ones out there.
Hey also had three touchdowns and he was 13th in the tight end position and targets 11th in yards seconds in yards per reception.
First in biggest play was 75 5th in place greater than 20 yards, third in place greater than 20 yards per reception, third in place greater than 20 yards per reception and seventh in touchdowns.
According to player profiler dot com.
It's George Kittel.
Also pretty solid comparison there He was 11th in deep targets and just had one red zone target.
That's crazy to me.
He was 11th in yards per target and per Steve Steve's notes he caught.
I'm sorry, Perceives notes.
He caught one red zone touchdown.
All this guy needs is an uptick in opportunity because he was number two in yards per reception with 4.
3 Number one with the longest place out of the tight end position.
He was tight and five with 10 plays greater than 20 yards.
And like I said, historically rookie tight ends struggle.
He did not struggle at all last year, and that was somewhat hidden by the fact that he suffered God awful quarterback play almost all season.
At this point in drafts, you want Max upside and aside from Hate and Hearst going three ahead of him, no one in this draft gives you more upside relative their to their price tag than no offense, Hawk.
No, no, uh, fan.
He's going too far behind him on go go Over his stats that were not nearly as impressive as no offence in a few episodes.
All right, Well, you know, look, you know, a news came out yesterday that the Broncos released hire men.
So I am sure Jeff Fireman will land somewhere, but, you know, that certainly clears the path.
You know what they feel about? No offense that, you know, they're clearing out that tight end room a little bit simplifying it, and no offense going to be the guy.
I'm sure that will probably impact his projections and that will move him up in our total foresight rank as well.
Look, man, I'm not gonna disagree.
I'm sure he's listening fan of the show.
And I'm not gonna poo poo on all the Broncos.
I you could just tell, though we have themes of how Ben and I assess different offenses, bends obviously down more so on the Raiders offense than I am.
I'm probably down a little bit more on the Denver Broncos offense than Ben is, So I do like no offense.
I think that he does present some value.
We are both proponents of waiting on until late in drafts on tight end.
Now you're getting some great names.
Hunter Henry, Jared Cook, Noah Fan, Austin Hooper, TJ Hawkinson going around the 10th round and drafts.
I would I would be completely fine having any of those five guys.
They all present some different upside, some different options, some different benefits.
And I've got no no problem.
I'm with you, Ben.
I think he could certainly take a step this season and, you know, tight end 12.
I think he could certainly do better than that. Absolutely.
Yeah, and I mean it just okay, even, you know, we obviously disagree about Drew locked.
But even with your assessment of Drew lock, you have to admit that tight end targets are a quarterback's best friend when it comes toe.
And I was very someone no advance big play ability.
I had no idea that he had that many big plays last season.
And really, honestly, a comparison to George Kittel.
That's appealing as well.
So you know, if this offense can get on track and really it Drew Drew lock can be accurate and have some good quarterback play than certainly, you know, this offense could be something to watch.
But again, You know, it's just been so long since this offense has been prolific, that I just I don't want a bet on it occurring because it's been so long, I'd rather see it happen.
So, you know, with you, I like no offensive player.
Um, man, I probably would just go somewhere else.
I like so many of the tight ends in that group.
Uh, I'll let you have no offense.
You can bet on him.
I'll take one of the other guys and we'll see how it shakes out.
TJ I I like my chances in that all day.
Let's go, baby Yelp.
So, man another another growing episode.
What's that? No, we didn't actually, I'm a little disappointed.
And after the last one, I was I was expecting a lot of ah combativeness on both sides of the fence here, and you know it.
It just wasn't anything of the sort.
So, you know, a very interesting group, man.
And like I said, probably going to shake out as the best division top the bottom when it comes the tight ends.
Now we're going to discuss it in a single episode, so really enjoyed covering the A F C West, as you would expect and, uh, got anything else before we get out of here.
Joe, who do we have up next East? NFC West? No, no. Yes.
No, you're right.
You're absolutely right.
We're not onto the North yet.
We're still in the West.
Next two episodes were going to be covering the quarterbacks and running backs.
And the following episode with wide receivers and tight ends off the NFC West can't wait This episode a fantasy foresight podcast way.
Thank you for joining us.
Be sure to visit us as always.
At fantasy foresight dot com.
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Social media, including Twitter, Facebook Beautiful.
Every hope you enjoyed so busy in next 74 points.
We know for shirt that said reluctance enough to do a ton to be back star this year.
But I'm not not like Super Super Enam parade.
I just made up a word.
I'm not super enamored with Drew lots.
What's so that's why I'm not making that.
But like I told you, Derek Carr was was the quarterback in the Bronco situation, I would be way more excited about their car than I am about Drew Lock this year.
It would be garbage.
I wouldn't Dude, I'm saying I respect Derek Carr, but, like in that offense, I just don't know when I will.
No, Uh, so I I don't know I But you put Derek Carr with Pat Shurmur in Corlin, Sudden and Jerry, Judy and no offense and Melvin Gordon and Philip Lind Forget about it, dude, I like I said, I put I would give car the respect is due at and call him like a back and Q b wanted that.