welcome everyone to fantasy foresight Podcast.
We're your hosts and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com Coming to you from the Rambo picture company studios.
I'm bad and I'm Jay ready to get rolling J You know it.
I think it is Thursday, May 21st and we've got another great 80 p study episode for you with our guy The Foresight Encyclopedia and has a new ad on this season will be covering the tight ends in the last installment of this 2020 80 p study, Siri's and once again, fantasy foresight.
The podcast is live.
How you doing in I J.
Last week we talked about this could be kind of a gross and disgusting episode because recovering the tight end position.
But I'll tell you what, Every week we learn some interesting nugget, some interesting trends and some valuable data regarding drafts heading into every season.
So I'm looking forward to what we're gonna uncover tonight with the tight end.
Steve, how are you doing tonight, my friend? Hey, guys.
Well, first and foremost, I want to say thank you both for having me on I've been looking forward to it all day.
Um, you know, come into coming into this podcast a little heavy hearted, but I know that you guys are aware of why, and I just want to share with our listeners that today is my little brother's birthday today.
Hey, would be 35 years old if he was still with us.
And, you know, unfortunately, when he was 32 we lost him to a heart attack.
Now 32 years old, Heart attack.
As you would imagine, that certainly out of left field.
And the reason I just want to share that really quickly, you know, as personal as it is to me, is for all you out there.
I know we have a lot of males that are probably in our age group that our listeners and I know his guys.
We wouldn't have the tendency Teoh rub dirt on something.
We feel like something might be a little off, just, you know, kind of deal with it, see what happens.
And my messages had something Does feel off, goes your position.
If you own already will see your physician annually.
A lot of good preventative medicine out there.
So you know, if just one person who is listening here is that and they go see their doctor and for any kind of health ailment set you in a better health trajectory in black.
So absolutely, Yeah.
Good stuff, Steve.
Yeah, Chris is definitely always in our hearts, for sure.
So you know, we're gonna We're gonna round out Steve's blog's study.
Siri's getting back fantasy football.
You know this This podcast series is all based on his blog's study examining the six year history of tight ends.
Comparing 80 p ranks to the actual fantasy finishes.
You confined all Steve's great work under the Foresight Encyclopedia tab at fantasy foresight dot com and follow him on Twitter at f f Underscore Encyclopedia And beyond that, you can also in that foresight encyclopedia tab, click on his archive site and see the some of the good work he's done with Chris Effect on his archive blog's.
Definitely check that out if you haven't before, So once again back to the study, we are going to be looking at three key pieces of information tonight for each of the 12 highest drafted tight ends over the last six seasons, first, we're going to check and see if they lived up to our hopefully exceeded their 80 p price tag.
Did it a little bit different than Steve's written Blawg study For the purposes.
This podcast in Steve will touch on that a little bit later.
Second Will touch will take a look at their relative usability percentage to see how often they finished as a top six tight end, a top 12 tight end or a TV one or unusable tight end to And then just for fun, we'll check out the way too early.
80 Peas at fantasy football calculator dot com.
To get current examples of the actual tight ends, these concepts apply to third.
We're gonna look at it from a new perspective tonight, compared to the last three episodes in this series.
Tonight, I'm gonna also tell you how many tight end ones go undrafted every year.
There were that many that I felt the need to change recorded and tell you all about Oh, boy, this should be a fun one As a reminder before we get started, our research perspective is most applicable to 12 to 15 team single Q B P pr redraft formats.
But many of the concepts could be helpful to dynasty players.
To all our fantasy finishes, data comes from Fantasy pro's dot com.
Full PPR weeks one through 16 and all of our 80 p.
Data always comes from fantasy football calculator dot com.
All right, you guys ready? First up, we've got, you know, highest drafted tight ends over the last six seasons.
Steve, take it away, buddy.
All right, fellas.
Well, before we dive into that on Ben, you mentioned it a little bit already tonight in this podcast.
We're looking at the 80 p tight end ones from the perspective of whether or not they gave you a good return on your investment.
And what I mean by that is they finished within three spots where they drafted.
So, you know, a perfect example of that is you look at George Kittel last year, who was the second tight end off the board Finished his tight end for so while he didn't need her exceed exceed, where were you to put him a relative to your draft? You're still going to be pretty happy with what he turned in last season for as the tight end for, you know, in fantasy football.
So now if you finish beyond, you know, four spots around side of, that's not letting three spots that is gonna classify you as you know, a bus, so to speak, or somebody who didn't return.
So all right, now that we got that out of the way, let's dive into it.
We have Travis Kelsey last year, none other than Jesus himself, going as the 80 p tight end one and Kelsey do what Kelsey has done for four straight years now, which is finished as the tight end one and all a fantasy football and so obviously fantastic Return on investment.
And you gotta love that now, like I've been doing the previous three episodes.
Just go ahead and work my way through the finishes going from 2000 a team down the 2014 and we'll just kind of summarize everything up from there.
So in 2018 we had a tight end 10 finish out of our 80 p Tite and one, then a tight end to finish tied and 25 finish tight and one and then tied in to finish.
So, looking at it from a six year average.
The average draft price has been the 203 and draft.
So you know, it's a pretty high draft capital there.
Early second round pick in an overall average, finished is the tight end seven.
And then 67% of the time, you have gotten a good return on your investment.
So again, just reminding you all, finishing within three spots of where you were drafted.
You know, I I thought this was gonna be a gross episode, but really starting off pretty strong right now, we're getting the number one tight end in the middle of the second round on average and 67% of time he's finishing.
He's given you a good are why within three spots of where you're drafting him.
So you're getting on elite top and tight end, and really, the only two times in the last six years with that didn't happen.
We're Gronk down years, either injury or injury.
So beyond that, it's pretty consistent.
I kind of dig that, Um, and one of those down years was tight and 10 right.
It's not even like that kills you'll, you know that's not a good our ally.
But from reality perspective, that's very you're still getting a tight end one overall.
And, you know, depending on how scoring goes so really 67% of time, you're getting a top six tight end and then a whopping 84% of time.
You're getting a tight end.
Wanna top 12 tight end and really Onley? Once in the last six years, were you finishing? Were you getting a player who finished outside the top 12? So I'm liking that right now.
We've seen consistency, like Steve just said with the names at the top of this list and right now, going number one even a little bit further back with the eighth pick of the second round, The first tight end off the board in this year's draft so far is once again Travis.
And I mean, you know, I said that.
I'm going to start telling everybody the undrafted, tight end ones every year, but I'm gonna be doing that every other 80 p tight end, so we'll get to those next right.
As far as the 80 p tight end one goes, there is no debate.
I mean, it's high end draft equity, But I think we've all been there.
You're at a spot in the draft.
Maybe you had your in a 12 team leader at the 12 and 13 spot, 1 12 on the 201 and all the running backs and wide receivers that you think are worth taken at that point is gone.
You know, sometimes it it pays off to take a Travis Kelsey or growing at that point for sure.
So, you know, I think, relatively speaking, the average tight and seven for the tight end.
One price tag is not what you like, but when you consider both of those seasons were due to injury and one of them still gave you a tight end 10.
I mean, yeah, it's not that bad.
Like you said, our expectations were really low, and we'll see if that keeps going.
Steve, I was looking for the 80 p tight end to, um well, well, let's just dive into it and we'll find out way talked about.
I talked about George Corolla just a few minutes ago.
He was the 80 p tight end to in 2019 and he finished his tight and for like I alluded to.
So, you know, I would say a lot of fancy owners who went on alone.
I went out on a limb.
It so came at the 304 were probably pretty happy with that finished now the previous season, Travis Kelsey was the tight end to, and he did finish as the tight end one.
And all fantasy football had a sensational season at which led to him being going in the what early to mid second round last season and drafts so sensational.
Return on investment there as well.
And we were talking about Zeus a lot already in this podcast.
He was our tight end to in 2017 as well, and guy's listening that is going in the fourth round of the 403 I just want to point that out and again, a tight end one finish the previous three seasons.
However, outside of that, we did get a tight end.
Eight a tight and 16 and tight and seven finishes out of that tied into position and, you know, over the six year for study this you know that 80 p tight end to has been costing on average the 30 wait.
So again, Still some pretty high draft capital there.
And overall, a tight end eight finish.
And when you do break it down, you know, we have 50% of the time.
You know, a good return on investment, basically the past three seasons.
Yeah, you know, this one's really interesting because we've already seen a little bit of a drop off between tight and one and tight end to they're both giving you about 83% of a chance of finishing with a top 12 tight end come to the end of the season.
The difference is the tight end to is only giving you a 33% chance of finishing the season with the top six tight end and a 50% chance of finishing somewhere between that tight and six and tight and 12 spot.
So again, still a great chance of getting a solid player solid, tight, and you just lose a little bit at upside historically, with the person drafted in that second spot.
So who is that in 20 going into the 2020 season right now with the first pick of the third round? So you know, like you said, Steve, it's still is some decent draft capital, especially for the tight end position in standard scoring formats.
Is George Kittle Yeah, George Kettle is gonna be a very interesting one to watch this year.
And I already like you said, I like the trend we're seeing already a little bit of a drop off from Taiwan to tight end to.
And then, even though you have the same usability percentages, Yep, no two are created equal most of the time.
And, like Jay said, you have a much better chance of that elite upside that you're paying for in the 2nd 3rd round thing.
You know, with the 80 p Tite and one that you do with the 80 p tight end to.
So you know, the R A Y might make you think twice.
But once again, a tight end eight on average is not terrible.
The floor for a tight end one is there only one time over the last six years.
Do not get a top 12 tight end.
There's still plenty of upside.
It's not as good, but once again, you gotta read your draft.
If there's not running backs and wide receiver.
I will never again make the mistake that I did last year like I did with Juju.
I was down on him all season coming in coming.
He's he was their way later than I expected it.
And to be rightfully so because we're in a very smart league.
And I was like, Oh, I can't pass the value. No.
Should have taken a tight end or something at that point.
And take your guys.
Take your guy guy.
And you know, So as promised, there were 6 50% of the tight end ones last season that went undrafted in 12 team PPR format's Wow, the tight end. Three.
The tight end, five.
The tight end. Eight.
The tight end 10 and the tight end 11 all for free.
A man is gonna be other trends emerging throughout this episode.
But you know, the top tier tight ends are very differentiating on your roster being that there's only one tight end that you can start, you know? Ah, a lot at once.
Once you get past the top three, it really falls off.
And then just a big tear together of just the guy, though.
Yeah, it will be interesting to see how the rest of these trends proceed.
So, Steve, next up, we've got the 80 p tite and three.
How's it looking? Oh guys, you know, we've we've had it every episode.
There's at least usually one sweet spot in man, the 80 p tied and three the last six years.
I think this has to be it.
And so spend a little bit of time on this one.
So last season, Zach Ertz was our 80 p Tite and three going at the 309 finishes as tight end to for the study.
So obviously you're happy with that.
That he did get off to a little bit of a slow start that scared some fantasy owners last season but came on strong, obviously finished tied into.
Zach Ertz also owned this position, this exact same spot the previous season and finished tied and to asses.
Well, here's work.
It's interesting when we're looking at the 80 p Tite and three over the course of this study is outside of Greg Olsen in 2017 who finished his tight and 48 because I believe he broke his foot, missed most of the season.
We have seen a tight end to a tight end, three in the tight end, one finish come out of this draft position when it comes to tight ends, which is pretty fascinating.
I mean, outside of one time, you have a top three tight and come out of the spot.
So the six year average on draft price is the 405 So you got a kind of like that compared to some of the other draft prices and my goodness, 83% of the time.
Again, excluding Greg Olson.
You have a fantastic return on your investment, and this is even more incredible in my mind.
The six year average finished is tight and 10 and that's with Greg Olson's tight and 48.
Absolutely dive bombing that average as an absolute out.
It's tight end to if you take that out.
That is OK, so we're seeing once again, some similarity and yet some subtle differences out of a tight and three spot.
Except we've reversed course instead of taking a little bit of a step down.
We take it a giant step forward 83% of the time you're getting a tight.
A top six tight end come the end of the season.
Are you finishing someone? That 6 to 12 range.
So it's all in on upside with the tight end.
Three and drafts.
You've got that That outline, that one shot of busting a little bit, but really, it's all upside in this spot.
So who is this player heading into? 2020 Will Right now, the third tight end off the board is going in with the second pick of the fourth round.
A nice round later.
And that player right now is Mark Andrews.
New blood at the elite.
Tight end level.
Yeah, very interesting name heading into this. Indeed.
I don't know how we have stumbled upon this magical secret where you are nearly guaranteed elite top sixth Itim production.
But give me the 80 p tight end three all day.
I don't care whose name it is.
If there's nobody that I like in the fourth round, I'm just closing my eyes and taking the 80 p tight end three.
Chugga Chugga choo choo.
Start the Mark Andrews hype trained.
I mean, we'll see if he ends up there, you know, come the start of 2020 seasons.
Hurts is, well, spoiler alert.
Zach Ertz is right by Kniffen on its heels.
We'll see if he can overtake him like like his old usual self every season.
So as long as Carson Wentz is healthy throwing in the ball.
But I di GREss Steve, let's start talking about the ADP tight end for brother.
All right, so I'll preface talking about the 80 p tight end for by saying, up until last year, when I finally learned that, um, if I'm not gonna take a tight end really early like the elite one, once we've been talking about them that maybe it might be good to wait because there's always that, like there's always that tear of the the quote unquote ready to break out tight ends.
And my goodness, if I haven't shot myself in the foot on these guys plenty of times in my fancy pass.
Believe me, When I did this study and I saw some of these names, I just cringe because I pulled the trigger on somebody's fellows.
So, um, you know, so spoiler alert the next couple of spots might not look so hot, but 80 p.
Tite and four last year was Don't vomit listeners O.
Howard going at the 506 who finishes tied and 28 solid, tight and three if you're playing in a super ultra tight end flex league.
But this season before that, we had a title 12 finish.
Another tight end twirled finish.
I'll get Delaney Walker some credit in 2016 finishes tied and for Kelsey in the season he started to emerge in 2015 tight and six, and then we had a tight end 29 finish.
So I mean overall for a tight end that you're going to pick in the fifth round.
I mean, you have plenty of other starting position when your roster at that point in time, you're talking an overall tight end, 15 finish yuck and only one of 33% chance, one hour, three times that.
You've gotten a good return on your investment out of this position yet, you know, to me, it always seems like when you're entering a fantasy football season.
There's always two or three elite names at the top of the tight end draft board.
And then there's a clear separation in top end talent, or at least top end scoring in the fantasy world.
And now you're really seeing it.
You're seeing some of that risk creep in and you're reaching for guys and going in the fifth round.
Like you said Steve, you're still filling out your starting roster.
There's much more value there.
We uncovered it in a running back assessment and are wide receiver assessment.
There's guys you can get with much more upside at this point.
And now, with the on average, the six pick in the fifth round, you're going tight end hoping for one of the elite guys, but only 33% of the time.
Are you getting a top six finish er of the position come the end of the season on Lee 33% of time.
Are you getting a 6 to 12 finisher overall at the end of the season? So 66% of time are you only getting a star doble tight end in the fifth round and you're taking the 4th 1 off the board? Not great.
Another third time.
You're getting a tight end to a tight end 13 or worse player.
So just not a great spot.
It It's like you want to get some one of those elite guys or you wanna wait like Ben said.
Six out of top tour.
It won't even drafted.
So just if you don't want get one of top guys, pump the brakes.
So who is going currently in this spot? And that is with the 12th pick in the very last pick of the fourth round.
The fourth tight end off the board is Zach Ertz.
No, he's gonna turn it around.
You know? I'm is gonna play Devil's Advocate here a little bit.
I think you guys would be a little bit too hard on the 80 p tight end for position here.
I was once again pleasantly surprised.
OK, we've all we've all got, hopefully one or two league mates that you can count on for a draft pick that you're happy about.
And if somebody in your league takes the wrong 80 p tight end free and that guy has fallen to you around later, I mean, 2/3 of the time you were getting a tight end war.
I am not saying that I would prefer this, but there are scenarios where I think it's OK.
Third of the time.
Top 6 1/3 of the time you get a usable one.
That's 2/3 of the time.
You're getting what you pay for.
It's not terrible, but hey, the train conductors here we just stopped and Phillies Acker, it's got off the train.
Top it on, my friend.
Wow, you've been saving that one in 2000 and 18.
I just told you how in 2019 we had six tight end ones that went undrafted two years ago. The trend continues.
It was five out of 12 almost 42% of the time.
Your tight end ones are going for completely free The tight end.
Three the tight end for the tight and five, the tight end six and the tight end nine all went for free in 2000 and 18.
So I will extend the tight ends here like 3 to 3.5.
It could be Ah, four deep tight.
Ok, yeah, I get you once out.
Steve, tell everybody how.
80 p Tite and five just dies right off.
Yeah, it's kind of kind of the same story for, really I don't have a proper this. I gotta go.
Goodbye. Speed off are going diving. Hold on.
No control is off the chain. Ladies.
Hey, let's go home.
So last year, the 509 we had Evan Ingram going drafts.
He had that, You know, he had that outie concern built into his draft price, and rightfully so because he was out.
She or a good amount of last season, which ultimately led to him finishing as tight end 18.
You aren't happy with that? Out of a tight end that you do drafted.
Looking at the other five years in this study, we've also seen in tight end 24.
We did have ah, tight end six and Travis Kelsey's first of his four straight tight and finishes in 2016.
I can't say that about Travis Kelsey in the sixth round.
Can you imagine getting Travis Kelsey ridiculousness? And then we had a tight end 20 Martellus Bennett just just like saying that name because that he was one of those just he just one of those guys that you know, was a steady Eddie tight end for a while and then tight end 34 finish in 2014.
So I mean overall.
All again, we're still talking about an overall draft prices.
You're filling out your starting roster.
There's running backs and receivers you could be taking, and you're getting over all a tight end.
17 finish on average and again, just like the 80 p tite.
And for you just have the one in three roll of the dice that you're gonna hit.
Get a good return on your investment.
Okay, now in a tight end premium week.
Obviously, this is a different conversation, but in a standard scoring week, no matter what your settings are, tight ends just don't score as many points as wide receivers, running backs and quarterbacks.
It's just it's just the nature of fantasy football.
So if you're gonna go tight end in the fifth round, when you're still filling out your starting roster like Steve said, and the tight end five is only giving you a 33% of a chance of getting a top six tight end come the end of the season, not good, but what's worse than that is the 67% chance that player is going to finish tight end 13 Or worse, not even a star edible tight end that I mean, listen, if you want to carry an extra tight end and you have a deep bench, fine.
But really, if you're in a competitive league with a thin bench, that's a drop a ball player, largely.
So you're drafting a drop a ball player in the fifth round.
That is a huge mistake.
So who is the huge mistake? 2020 season? And that name may surprise you right now, going with E seventh selection in the fifth round.
The fifth tight end off the board is Darren Waller, you know, fitting.
In my opinion, Yeah.
I mean, a lot of people, So I don't know.
Some people might find that, you know, controversial or whatever, but I think he might have been a little bit of a benefactor of just being a target hog last year.
And with all the new weapons they've got, maybe a quarterback change at some point.
Just I just I don't know how to trust his wound.
Definitely not in the 507 which is his current 80 p. Interesting.
I mean, like I alluded to before Steve got started on this one.
That drop off is here.
You know, I was you know, you guys you guys were jumping off the train one before this.
I am now all in with you.
Like it is, if you do not, it's gotta be the right tight end for the 03 But if you're if you're still going to roll the dice of the top four, you do not want to do that again.
So, Steve, how's it looking? Doesn't recover at all with the 80 p tight end six.
A slight bounce back.
And I do want to say that I probably could have played in the slot for the Raiders last season.
That's how desperate their receiving corps and their target options were.
So, yeah, I was highly offended.
I guess I could have started on the outside, but yeah, I agree that there, Benny, I think there was definitely be set for a major target.
One to look out for their now the 80 p tied and six last year.
That was Hunter Henry going at the 603 Hey, did put together a tight end.
You know, there were the injury concerns there.
Yeah, Largely late in a season, man.
He bawled out, laid it, had the way to get going.
But yeah, he is hurt, but he always comes back.
It's Yeah, certainly.
And the prior season to that, we had a tight end, eight finish out of this position.
A tight end. 86.
Think that's Tyler Eifert.
I think he may be caught.
One pass, and then his back broke again or you miss the rest of season.
And then a tight and 16 finished tight and 28 finished.
And then a tight end.
So, you know, looking at it from a six year average, you're looking at drafting this person in the sixth round, 609 average overall finish of tight end 26.
And I do in your mind everyone, you know, there was a tight and 86 finish.
That certainly does.
Sure, but you know, if you're still looking for a tight end at this point in your draft, I think the numbers would tell you and advise you to just give it some time.
Wait a little bit longer because right now, as you look at the numbers, tight end six is giving you zero upside zero occurrences of that player actually finishing in the top six at the position.
So you're drafting the six guy, You would at least want him to hit that or better.
No, not once in the last six years.
Has that happened on Lee 50% of the time.
Are you getting a top 12 tight end on Lee? 50 fit your get.
You have a 50 50 shot of getting a tight end one or busting a tight end to our worst.
That's I mean, listen, we've been saying it over and over again.
You're still drafting starters at this point.
This is not the starter I want.
And right now, this this one's crazy going with the second pick in the sixth round.
The six tight end off the board is Gronk.
You just better.
Yeah, you're absolutely What better spot for him to be on on this study than list 50 50 shot of being a tight end one or busting? And that is exactly what Gronk is in my mind.
You want to take a dog for a rate? Fine.
Fifth round food boy.
I mean, he's going at the top of the six.
You're right. Yeah, but, you know, it's still still.
But here's the thing.
As Faras Grant goes specifically, I don't think any of us are gonna be surprised if he has a disappointing fantasy season.
I don't think any of us would be surprised to find and one over.
Ah, well, you know, and he could be anything in between.
I mean, maybe I'm alone in that, but there is a range of outcomes where he is just the still Brady's top red zone target on what may be an extremely potent offense.
And, you know, it's not out of the realm that grown.
No, you're right.
I could see him definitely being that red zone threat that he's always been.
I just don't know if the legs were there for him on a yardage level, to keep up with guys like Kelsey and in the guys inside.
But But we'll see.
I think he's 80 p is going up the clothes.
You're right, You're right in this.
We all had high expectations of different offenses in the past.
Cleveland Browns in 2019.
You call it down over there.
Doesn't mean that it's all gonna just especially off season, I think is better than your on going on when we get back to this 80 p study things I gotta be out of mute your mic.
Get back to looking at the 80 Pete cited. Six.
We're talking about the 609 in a 50 50 shot at tight end.
One production with zero upside, like we've said where I will pass now.
Going back to looking At 2000 and 17.
2019 there was six out of 12 title ones not drafted.
2018 Job dropped down to five out of 12 and in 2017 it drops yet again.
The tight end, four tight and ate the tight and nine in the tight intent went undrafted.
So when you were looking at, like the range of the tide and five the tight end six.
And you're seeing that the numbers are just not on your side.
Rest assured that either very later in the draft or completely for free.
There are guys that will return tight end one production for you every single season.
Real quick before we move on to the next guy.
Not only are you pointing out guys for free, that can finish in the top 12 but think about the opposite perspective.
Think about all the guys they're replacing who were drafted in the top 12 who did not finish there.
You're taking wide receivers, running backs.
You're stacking your starting lineup.
You're stacking your bench.
In some cases before you, I take bench running backs and wide receivers before I draft my tight end one. Yeah.
I mean, you know, there are certain times where you're in the right spot where you go high end at the tight end position.
But, you know, there's plenty of times where you wait or, you know, you don't even draft the tight end at all. Yep.
And you just looked a stream and see what sticks so it can only go up from here.
So, Steve NDP, tight end, seven.
How did look yeah, uh, 80 p tied and seven actually is a little bit of a bounce back.
And before I jump into that, I love what you guys were just discussing.
As's faras, you know, wanting to wait.
And Ben, I love that you're given everybody the year by year, Like, how many of these guys are drafted? Because a big part of not wanting to take these guys in the middle and put 5th 6th round draft capital into them? Because I have done it for myself too many times.
You just learn the upside guy.
You know, I'm just all just wait, Okay? He's got okay, man.
Well, you can't cut ties with 1/5 round pick after week, right? To to pick up that breakout tight end.
But if you wait and you call your shot late and the guy you miss on and it's like Okay, well, we'll get rid of him and I'll go pick up a guy who busted out week one or two and you certainly getting advantage over your league mates.
Hey, speak speaking, calling a shot.
I'd like to call inaudible because I'm looking at our data on the screen for this podcast, and I'm seeing a lot of similar numbers for the next three spots of tight end.
So why don't we go through and have Steve cover the next three spots? 789 Tell us their historical finishes.
I'll go in and tell you where they finish, then on each one and then you can give us your daddy.
There's a lot of similarities between these next three spots.
Yes, so so I'll just go ahead and kind of given overall summation after I tell you the 80 p tight end 789 was just at least for 2000 night.
So So last season that was Jared Cook.
The 6 11 finished is tied and seven a very up in days.
All right, of Red Zone Monster Miss.
A few games of injury.
Now the tight end. Eight.
Totally different story.
Oh, boy, it's McDonald.
Ah, season, darling.
High train, um finished tied and 31 was going at 703 And then Chief David the Joe Man.
So in pains me as a Browns fan, you're 80 p tight end.
Nine in 2000 and 18 Finished tight end seven d soon, you know, injured than in Freddie kitchens.
Doghouse for whatever that's worth.
And then, uh, yeah, I mean, so tight.
And 79 for 2019.
2019 as a whole and overall tight end, 19 finish with a 50% chance return on investment in your 80 p. Tight end.
In this study, Tight end, 16 average finish with a 50% return on investment.
And this is why you know, this is why J.
Was saying, you know, this.
This is why Jay called inaudible.
Then the tight end nine the tight end, 21 average overall.
Finished with again.
A 50% return on investment.
So you have all three of these seasons? 50 50 coin flip on getting, you know, a positive our ally.
And, you know, you really only have around between 703 to 7 10 Like that draft where there's a run on tight. Exactly.
This is it that this is perfect, guys, cause you're right.
7037 10 804 Tight ends are starting to go off the board.
You feel pressure to do the same.
So you're gonna go grab the best name that you can, But you saw last year Steve said it.
Two of these three tight ends a tight end in the tight end, nine finished tight and 31 in tight and 77.
And a lot of those names we're hyped and some I was buying into.
So off these three spots tight and seven tight and eight tight and nine and drafts, you have a 17% chance of getting a top six tight end.
So a teeny bit of upside you have a 33% chance of getting a top a top 12 tight end somewhere between the six and 12 range.
Okay, that's a decent return. That's right.
We're drafting him.
But then you have a 50% chance out of these three spots of getting a top.
I'm sorry of getting a tight end who finishes outside the top 12.
Ah, 50 50 shot with a tiny bit of upside out of these three spots.
You know, I don't know to make it out right now, Ben, but I can tell you, right, I do three straight spots where you have identical our ally numbers in identical usability usability numbers, where it's 50 50 title in production or not usable with just a little tiny bit of upside.
But here's the thing.
When you tell me that, then it lends to just pay for the cheap, like go for the cheap.
And that's the concept.
Like we're now in that tier where whether you spend at the end of the six to the end of the eighth round, you're getting the same type of production, right? And you know the names.
The the name's Jay Hunter.
Henry, I'm sorry.
Evan Ingram Hunter Henry Austin Hooper.
You know, going to 6 12 703 and 8 12 If you have to make me pick one of those three guys, you know I'm going to go with the cheapest one because they all have different reasons for pros and cons and things of that nature.
And I'll go ahead.
I was going to say, if you want to wrap up, I was gonna transition into the into the tight end. 10.
Because if you're thinking I need to grab a tight end, I can't wait.
These names air coming off the board, pump the brakes, wait to see what we get to in the next three tight end spots.
Yeah, And not only that when you look at 2019 50% of the tight end ones went undrafted.
It was only five out of 12.
2000 and 17 and dropped down to four out of 12. 2016.
It was back at six out of 12 to 19.
Three your tight end.
Five your tight end six your tight end nine Your tight end 10 and your tight end 12 all went for free. Almost identical.
It'll last year.
I mean, it really is.
So you see, so you're starting to see that trend develop where over the last four years, I mean about half the time you get tight, end one production for free.
So if you are not in love, right? And outside of the top three or four, it's just worth it. Toe. Wait.
So so Yeah, but like Jay said, we've got some good news even before against free.
And it starts with a t p tight end.
Steve, you know, it doesn't know it doesn't start with Yeah, I'm sorry.
I'm Let's get this going generally real quick.
We'll get to the good stuff in a second.
You know what? Spoiler alert tie Any beside intend this trash? Yeah.
I mean, it has been buying large over the six year course of this study last season.
You know you happen to have Ah, a nice He is not of Austin Hooper who was, on average, the tide and 10 and drafts at the 8 11 Obviously, if you picked him up last season there, Ben, you're probably pretty happy about that in the production that you got.
But other than a tight and five finish coming out of this spot, it's been some.
I mean, not only Boston.
A couple that are, you know, they're players that shouldn't even register and fantasy football rankings.
It's been that bad.
So even though we're talking on average draft priced at the 8 10 use, you still want something better than overall Havers, tight end, 20 to finish and still one in three chance that you're you're even going to get a return on your investment.
So, like Ben said, it's it's not great Understatement.
Um, you know, 33% chance of getting that Top six tight end.
Ah, nice return.
A steel, Really? If you if you want to call it that and sneaking in some some elite value there.
But the problem is, you're looking you're staring at 67% of a chance of a bust, a tight end to or worse, 13 overall or worse at the position.
So you know, you're really going all in your taking your rolling the dice big time, because the odds say, if you're going to roll the dice and it at tight end spot at that tight end 10 spot in the eighth round, you have a better chance of busting than returning a solid investment at that pig.
And right now that players actually going a little bit behind that third pick in the ninth round.
So now we are getting into if you want to take a tight end early, we're getting into that territory.
But that player right now is no offense.
You know, I find this very interesting.
I think the usability percentages nail this guy.
I think it's 33% chance that he hasn't like a top six type of season.
2/3 chance that he's not gonna be.
Between Absolutely Yeah.
So you know the it was Ah, it was a fun ride of mediocrity from 80 p tight end, 7 to 80 p tite and nine, but 80 p tight end 10 Just completely fell off the rails again.
It's the second worst 80 p title on It's time to get this train going again.
In 2000 and 15 you had five.
Once again type one so undrafted as unbelievable.
This is unbelievable.
That tight end to went undrafted.
Or went undrafted tied and eight tight and 11 and tight end.
You don't have time to.
Well, 42% of the time.
Do you know that tight and one production for free? Do you know who the tight end to was that year? I'll look it up.
Okay. I don't know if you had a written down.
I'll look it up.
Okay, That's interesting, man.
We've got a couple tight end three's.
That's just that's on Riel.
Man, that is unreal.
Olson or something like that? Yeah, something like that.
But I know it gets better with the last two years ago.
It starts with a T.
P Tite and 11 Steve.
Yeah, it certainly does, especially when you look at it from, ah, positive of our ally perspective.
Not so much last season, the tight end 11 was Delaney Walker.
Christ didn't kill you, but, you know, obviously he he didn't do anything.
Fantasy worthy last year finishes talk in 41 however.
From 2018 to 14 we had four instances where we did get a positive return on investment out of the tide and 11 with the tight end.
11 finished tied and 12 tight and 13 and tight and 13.
There was also another ah Tyler Eifert in the middle of their going tight and 24 million Tyler Eifert has just really been a lot of roll the dice on me and Jordan Reed Man.
Yeah, guys, although living fancy football into me.
But so you know, it's interesting to me that you know this way at the tight end 11 and like you guys had alluded to it earlier.
It's almost like, you know what? I'll let my league mates go ahead and burn draft capital and pick tight ends because it's such a crap shoot.
And I'll just, you know, dictate to me who I'll end up taking.
And, uh, you know, that's I think, better than reaching and calling your shot and you're probably gonna miss anyways.
But, I mean, overall, a tight end 19 finish isn't tragic, considering tight end 11 is you know what we're talking about as far as the ADP.
And again, you have a 2/3 of a chance of actually like hitting on this pick and it being, you know, like a respectable granite when you're finishing tight end 11 12 or 13.
You know, you're you're certainly not a fantasy impact, tight tight end, But you're certainly usable, right, Jay? Yet hold on.
Ben's got a smile on his face.
I think he might have uncovered who That tight end to waas the tight end to in 2015.
What? The production of this gentleman was then chased, um, very unsuccessfully for the next several years, because free agent Jordan Reed like it's gonna be joined.
So that was the season Exactly.
Nobody took him after that.
Paid for it dearly.
Do you know, like you said at this point in drafts, you know, you've you've gotten a couple of bench players on your roster.
Now you're starting to think, OK, now I'm gonna go tight end, fill out my starting spots in my field players, and you've you've allowed everybody else to take the risk ahead of you again.
We're talking about the lowest scoring spot of field players on your roster, and you're really going to still try to get a guy who can come close to his upper echelon guys with really not paying that much of a draft price.
So on average, late in the ninth round, almost the 10th round in 67% of the time, you're getting a top 12 tight and only 33% of the time are you busting a little bit? So the odds are in your favor that you're gonna get that top 12 That starting tight end for your roster, Which is great right now with the 11th pick in the ninth round again, almost the 10th round and drafts is Jared Cook? Yeah, And you know what I feel like That's gonna be Jared cooks type of season.
Nothing spectacular in the top six Just solids.
Going to be a solid, credible, tight end one more weeks than not.
That is my assessment of Jared Cook right now.
Steve loved Cook.
Wrote him to another championship.
Um, but you know, when you look back at the run on tight ends 80 p tite and seven through 80 p tite and nine those price tags are 23 rounds spend states.
Then when you're at the 80 p tite and 11 and you're getting better usability percentages.
So again, you just have to be patient.
You have to wait.
If the right guys aren't there, do not get Don't panic just cause everybody else is going with tight ends because we have told you that the insane number off heightened one production that you get for free every season and 2014 is going to be no different.
Right after Steve discusses 80 p tite and 12.
Like like you said.
I mean, even at this point in time and in your draft, there's probably some nice, upside valuable bench players you could be collecting for your roster.
It more fantasy critical positions and tight end.
So, you know, certainly worth the wait.
And, um yeah, looking at the 80 p Tite and 12 year, you know, outside of the last two seasons, which last year was Eric Ebron.
And, you know, I think some of us all that won't come in.
But he was going to the 80 p 10 10 and finished tied and 25.
And the year before that, Jack Doyle went tied and 33 But outside of that, the previous four seasons out of the spot we've seen tied on 11.
Tight end, seven tight end, 10 and tight end, five finishes.
So, you know, an overall average of tide and 15.
And we're talking an average price of the 10 12 last pick of the 10th round, you know? Certainly.
Ah, pick that you could part with.
And overall having a 2/3 shock it.
Having a positive return on investment collectively, out of the tight end, 11 and 12 spots, you know, we're talking okay.
A six year average.
So 12 pieces of the study, eight of them 2/3.
You've gotten a positive return on your investment was last response yet, and Ben made a point on the last player on the tight end.
Where you're getting better odds than those tight ends that we discussed at 789 Not only is it better, guys, it's twice as good.
You have double the odds of getting a top 12 player out of the 11 and 12 spot in drafts.
Then you are the 78 and nine spot in drafts.
And they're going 345 rounds earlier when you could be capitalizing on upside or bench players like you, said Steve, or getting some type of commodity commodity that's valuable, valuable, easy for me to say for your fantasy team.
So right now the tight and 12 the last guy, the last starter taken in drafts has a 67% chance of finishing as a tight end.
Wanna top 12 tight end even has some upside.
We have an occurrence of a top six tight end in the last six years and only 1/3 of a chance of busting.
So right now the final starting tight end in drafts is going at with the ninth pick in the 10th round, and that is Tyler Higbee.
Can we just put it out there right now.
Can everybody just keep his ADP right there, please? I would love to pay The 10 09 for time may be heading into the season this year, and that's right on pace with the six year average price tag for the 80 p Tite and 12 of the the 10 12 spot.
That's about the range.
Historically, that you're getting that tight end 12 in your draft and your town.
Quite simply put from a usability perspective, this 80 p Tite and 12 spot gives you the best odds of upside and tight end one production since the 80 p tight end for oh, man, who off is Riel? You know when you look back one more time.
Back to 2000 and 14 it was yet again.
50% of the time.
You got tight and one production for absolutely free.
Undrafted the tight end. Four.
The tight end. Six.
Eight. The tight end.
The tight and 11 wow eight and 12 6 out of 12.
That's 32 out of 72 or 44.
4% off all top 12 tight ends have gone undrafted over the last six seasons. That is crazy.
So you see 80 p tight end, one through four.
Okay, Everything from ADP tight end, five tight and 11 weights.
You're gonna wanna wait, wait.
Want to wait? So in Steve, I know you have got some historical overall numbers for, you know, you took a look at the top five over the last six years and then just the overall how often they met or exceeded their 80 feet.
Yeah, And if you go to a fancy foresight dot com, go the Foresight encyclopedia tab.
I do Have you know, my latest piece written up there that does.
You know, look at all 72 of these tight ends over the last six years, kind of just from a meter exceed their draft position perspective.
And I also did break everything down round by round.
So that's probably interesting for something all to check out.
So please do if you feel inclined, but yeah, I looked at from a top five perspective of just simply meeting or exceeding your draft position, cause I kind of think of the top five is more of your differentiating on a fantasy squad type players.
That's only occurred with tight ends 11 out of 30 times, so but overall, that's a shade under 37%.
But obviously the odds are good.
And as we talked about earlier, when you're really looking at those top couple spots, you know the odds do go a little higher in your favor.
Now, I also looked at it just from a overall, like, all encompassing view as faras meeting or exceeding.
And that's only happened out of the 72 tight ends only a total of 25 times.
Period, um, which is breaks down roughly about 35%.
So not not really not.
Not really good, fellas.
So, you know, I think it just speaks to everything that we've been discussing the three of us throughout this episode tonight about, you know, the position is a hole.
The kind of values you can get when you just wait and pick up a guy off the waiver wire who went undrafted.
Um, you know, I love the information that you guys gave tonight.
You know, J with all the usability stuff on these guys.
As far as like, the top six finishes that you don't you don't even see coming out of some of these spots and then you see later on in other spots and then Benny, with the amount of guys that have been going undrafted each season, that just I mean, I knew it would be relatively high, but I didn't think it be like roughly half of its insane, right? And I've got one more surprise step for you guys, but oh, boy, tonight.
So, everybody, I just want you know, we've talked about this.
If you've listened over the past three seasons a couple of times, we've touched on the fact that you know, every for most of these episodes, by and large, I am the one that does the preparation and sends out a spreadsheet to the guys every episode I have embedded a secret stack.
So she that I sent you both? No.
If you go, if either one of you are both of you, go to the box of the overall meeting or exceeding 80 p down at the bottom, there's a big dark doubt box right to the right of that if you make that any sort of light background, tell me what that says Top three within three of their 80 p 11 out of 18 or 61%.
So when you talk about whether or not to go early or toe wait, I'm going to tell you I think you should go early because the top three tight ends within three finishes of their 80 p over the last six years give you a 61.
1 return on that extremely high end investment.
So, you know, if I'm on the fence about a running back or wide receiver and I'm at the in the the top of the third round, you know all bets are off for me.
I might be going.
Yeah, I'll tell you what of all of the of all the positions we've covered quarterback running back, wide receiver, tight end, that is the highest of the early rounds.
But they also have the lowest of the latter round.
So you're right.
It's either you go in early and you get your guy and hopefully at a good price or you wait.
Absolutely love it.
This is Ah, this the most fun I've had with this series so far in the two years that we've done it.
I think I think we have improved the format this year.
I think Steve Steve's studies Maurin depth.
I mean, I'm have a lot of fun with these.
I remember them being fun last year, but not much.
Hey, and if you're listening or watching if you enjoy the episode, if you learned anything at all, give us a follow on YouTube.
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We're gonna come at you with some preview podcast next.
Oh, man, we have in exciting next five weeks coming for everybody.
And believe it or not, if this crazy virus doesn't mess things up, we might be in preview season.
After that, we're all going to keep our fingers crossed and hope that's the case.
But next up over the next five weeks, two weeks from now, we're going to start a new Siri's what we learned in 2019.
It's gonna be a little bit more of a concise, abbreviated format that I think everybody is gonna like.
And next week we have a brand new custom metric at fantasy, foresight, foresight.
Consistency is unlike any consistency metric that's out there, and we cannot wait to go over it with a great time.
We'll see everybody next Thursday.
Have a great Memorial Day weekend.
Stay safe out there and we'll see you next time.
Can't wait, and that wraps up this episode of fantasy foresight podcast.
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