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00:00:21
welcome everyone to fantasy foresight.
00:00:23
The podcasts where your host and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com coming to you from the Rambo fixture Company studios.
00:00:31
I'm Ben, and I'm Jay ready to get rolling J.
00:00:34
You know it.
00:00:35
Let's do this right.
00:00:37
Let's go.
00:00:41
Welcome in everyone.
00:00:43
It is Thursday, April 30th.
00:00:45
We've got our guy, the Foresight Encyclopedia, back with us tonight and once again fantasy Foresight.
00:00:51
The podcast is live.
00:00:53
How you doing tonight, Jay? Ben? Glad to be here.
00:00:55
Glad to kick off our preparation for the 2020 season.
00:00:59
We've got the live video going.
00:01:01
Hopefully, the audio sounds crisp and great.
00:01:03
Steve, how are you doing tonight, my friend? First and foremost, just let me say thank you, gentlemen, for having me on this evening.
00:01:12
I'm doing fantastic as I typically am, but I just want to stress that I am thankful to be on doing this with you guys right now.
00:01:20
Because as we've all been through the wringer lately and certainly welcome the distraction of talking fantasy football with my guys Hey, perfect Segway.
00:01:30
Steve, before we get started, I just wanted to take a quick minute.
00:01:34
Like you said, there's been a lot going on the world in the world that we are all aware of, Cove in 19 is all over the place, and it's something we're all dealing with.
00:01:43
And because of that, the team here, a fantasy foresight in conjunction with our show sponsor Rambo Fixture company for the last month or two, has been coordinating a fund raiser to raise funds to purchase PPE and namely N 95 masks for medical professionals.
00:02:02
And it's really been, are the response by you the listeners by friends, family.
00:02:08
Everybody has been tremendous.
00:02:10
We have provided over 1250 95 masks, 2 31 facilities and hundreds of medical workers.
00:02:19
So one, I want to say, a big thank you to It was an exciting day today because we were featured by Gulick and Lingo as their hometown hero of the day.
00:02:30
We received a personal message from Stefania Bell, who we love on this show, So it was really a just a tremendous day.
00:02:39
The whole team deserves credit.
00:02:41
It's been a team effort.
00:02:43
We couldn't thank you enough.
00:02:44
It was just a great way to start this day, a day that we get to come to you live, and it's a day where I just want to really send out a plea for help.
00:02:56
Um, our efforts are ongoing.
00:02:58
We would like to supply more masks to medical professionals.
00:03:02
We don't want this effort toe end by any means.
00:03:05
And I received a call today actually from our league mates, Uh, who? This who kind of was the basis for all of this starting.
00:03:14
And he was telling me that in his hospital in Akron, Ohio, he has toe wear his mask, not an N 95 mask, his cloth mask, his surgical mask for three days before he gets a new one.
00:03:29
So the need is still there.
00:03:31
PPE is still needed.
00:03:34
Materials in general are still needed by our health care workers.
00:03:38
And it's ironic that on this day I also got a call from my father, who was going in to be tested for Cove in 19 tomorrow.
00:03:46
He's an 80 year old man, so you know, he's obviously in my thoughts and prayers, but the effort is still there.
00:03:53
It's not going away any time soon, so if you would support the measure, I know it's a tough time for everybody.
00:03:59
We've already received a lot of support, but if you have it in, you share our our, uh, our campaign, if you would on your social media platforms.
00:04:09
If you can make a donation, we'd obviously very much appreciate it.
00:04:12
Now that that's out of the way, let's dive in to fantasy football much welcome distraction at this point.
00:04:22
Well, before we dive into that real quick, just like I said last week, man, we're all really proud of you.
00:04:28
And special shoutout goes to, ah, out foresight.
00:04:31
Family men are guys.
00:04:32
Zach, you're sending the night.
00:04:34
Golic and Wing go in the first place, and then it's It's super cool.
00:04:38
The CIA's personalized message from ESPN Stefania Bell and then all of a sudden, seeing retweets from Matthew Berry field the eights like it's, you know, Trey Wingo himself.
00:04:48
Yes, it was exciting day in a perfect day when we're all set to come back together and record tonight, so let's go absolute.
00:04:57
Here's how tonight's episode is going to work.
00:05:00
This 80 p podcast Siri's is all based on Steve's blog's studies examining the six year history of Q B's comparing 80 peas to their actual fantasy finishes.
00:05:10
You can find all Steve's great work under the fantasy.
00:05:13
The foresight in Cycling India tab at fantasy foresight dot com and follow him on Twitter at FF Underscore Encyclopedia.
00:05:22
We're going to be looking at three p key pieces of information tonight for each of the 12 highest drafted quarterbacks over the last six seasons.
00:05:31
First, we're going to look if they lived up to or hopefully exceeded their 80 p price tag.
00:05:37
Second, we'll take a look at the relative usability percentages to see how often they finished as an actual start.
00:05:44
Herbal Fantasy Q B And just for fun, we'll check out the way too early.
00:05:48
80 piece at fantasy football calculator dot com To get current examples of the Q B's, these concepts apply to Third will look at it from the opposite perspective and examine where the actual top 12 quarterback performers were drafted over the last six years.
00:06:04
After ****yzing all that data together, will identify the points in the draft with the highest to be upside the safest floor and the best draft points to target Q B one production in your upcoming drafts this season.
00:06:16
As a reminder this is all from the perspective of 12 team redraft PPR Leagues are Our fantasy finishes came from weeks one through 16 at fantasy pose dot com and PPR leagues formats and are 80 p.
00:06:30
Information always comes from fantasy football calculator dot com.
00:06:34
All right, love, as this is from a redraft perspective, but there's also some valuable insights for you Dynasty players out there.
00:06:43
So without further ado, Steve, how did the number one overall drafted quarterbacks perform over the last six seasons? All right, well, we're going to go ahead and kick it off with our 80 p Q B one of 2019 and I think we all know who that was.
00:06:59
And that's Patrick Mahomes.
00:07:00
He was going at the 207 80 p every single season because this happens time and time again, guys.
00:07:07
So I'll just work my way back 2018 back to 2014 just give you the Q B finishes of the 80 p q B one, and that would be after Patrick Mahomes.
00:07:18
We have a Q B four Hubie 28 q B 16 q B 28 Hubie five.
00:07:26
A couple of okay, finishes in there.
00:07:28
But really, when you're on average over a six year period, it's spending that to 10 on a quarterback.
00:07:35
You have to get in a leaks high end fantasy championship caliber season, and these guys have averaged a Q B 15 finish and obviously not a single time.
00:07:45
You heard those finishes not a single time, that one of them even come close to giving you the return on investment that you laid out there to pick him up.
00:07:54
Crazy Steve.
00:07:55
So 0% of the time did the Q B one overall in drafts finish as Q B one in the last six years and worse than that, get this Onley 33% of the time.
00:08:09
Do they finish in the top six and quarterbacks, and only 50% of the time do they finish in the top 12 Onley half the time the number one drafted quarterback finishes as a number one quarterback in general.
00:08:26
A top 12? I mean, that is your only getting a start herbal quarterback half the time when you are drafting the number one overall Q b crazy, just crazy.
00:08:40
33% of the time, the number one selected Q B in the last six years finished outside the top 25 33% of the time.
00:08:52
That is just that is alarming now.
00:08:57
So we shift our focus and put a name to that information heading into the 2020 season.
00:09:02
Right now, as you would expect, the current Q B one in way too early.
00:09:08
ADP going at the 209 mark right around where Pat Mahomes was going last year is Lamar Jackson.
00:09:18
Yeah, I mean, like Steve said, it's all about perception versus reality.
00:09:22
You cannot be chasing the performance of last year.
00:09:25
The variables change every season, and you know it's just not there for the overall 80 p q b one.
00:09:32
So when you flip this, when you look at this from the opposite angle and you look at where the actual Q B one overalls have finished over the last six years on average, those guys air drafted at the 7 10 spot askew who be nine.
00:09:49
All right, so when you take a look, a.
00:09:51
The fact that on average, your top drafted quarterbacks are taken at the to 10 spot with an average finished a Q B 15.
00:09:57
And then you couple that with the fact that they're only even started.
00:10:00
But 50% of the time.
00:10:02
And then you look at the actual Q B ones over the last six years are drafted.
00:10:06
Five rounds later, it all adds up to stay away from that name at 80 p.
00:10:13
Q.
00:10:14
B one spot Steve Does the story change it all for the 80 p q b two.
00:10:19
Yeah, you know what it actually does.
00:10:21
Interestingly enough, we'll go ahead and look at our Q B to a.
00:10:26
Sfar is 80 piece concern last season 2019 and that his dish on Watson hey was going in before 11.
00:10:33
So just a little mental well known for everybody listening.
00:10:37
That's a full two rounds later than Patrick Mahomes and Sean Watson actually finished right where you're drafted him as a Q B two.
00:10:45
Hey, so yeah, exactly right.
00:10:48
You did have a little bit of a boomer bus type of a season, but as far as this finishes concerned, you can't really complain.
00:10:54
He finished right where you drafted him now.
00:10:57
Well, go ahead and look at 2018 down to 2014 and the finishes are actually not too bad coming out of the Q B two spot on drafts.
00:11:06
We've got a Q B five finish keeping five finish.
00:11:08
Q B one Q B seven Q b four UH, overall Q B four average finish and draft equity of Ah 3 11 so late third round pick.
00:11:20
So you know at least out of that 80 p Q.
00:11:22
B to spot.
00:11:24
You know, one out of three times you're actually getting like a solid return on your investment where that player is meeting or exceeding a draft position.
00:11:32
Yeah, that's significantly better than what we saw at the Q B.
00:11:35
One spot, you know, exceed meeting or exceeding their draft position 33% of the time with an average of Q B four is great.
00:11:43
What's even better is that 83% of the time they're finishing in the top six.
00:11:48
So the top half of Q B ones overall, which is perfectly fine, especially when you're getting them at a much better price than that q B one spot and then even better 100% of the time.
00:12:01
Over the last six years, you are getting a Q B 12 or better with that second drafted quarterback.
00:12:10
So you're getting a Q B one.
00:12:12
Regardless, he may not be q B two overall, but you're still getting a solid quarterback play with the second drafted quarterback this season.
00:12:22
Who is that going at the 2 11 mark? Just a couple spots behind Lamar Jackson? Currently so on.
00:12:28
Increased price tag for that second drafted quarterback is none other than Pat Mahomes.
00:12:33
Last year's q B one.
00:12:37
Yeah, there's not much of a difference in price tag there, so that one will definitely be interesting to watch closer to the season.
00:12:44
And, you know, this is why we wanted to add the wrinkle.
00:12:49
UH, overall relative usability, because on the surface you might look at the 80 p quarterback to and say, you know, they only return a positive our ally 33% of time.
00:12:59
That's not good.
00:13:00
But when you look from the other angle of how often are they A Q B one or a top six? Q B history shows us that it's hardly even a gamble.
00:13:09
You know eso the actual Q B to the actual finishing Q B two's over the last six years.
00:13:15
On average, you're drafted at the 8 10 spot at 80 p. Q.
00:13:20
B 13.
00:13:21
Now that's the actual you be, too, when you're looking at just the overall relative finish of the 80 p quarterback to.
00:13:28
Historically, it says it's a really safe bet.
00:13:32
All right, all right, Steve, what about the 80 p Q b three? Well, last season, that was none other than Mr Aaron Rodgers.
00:13:43
And you know what, going at the 508 in 2019? That was, I swear that's as cheap as a draft prices I have seen on Rogers.
00:13:51
It's got to be like a decade, maybe even Mawr, probably when he first started as a starter or something like that.
00:13:58
But despite the Heat draft price, people that got him at the five away, I'm sure, were heavily frustrated with Rogers last season.
00:14:07
He did finish Q B 11 but I mean, guys, and I think it was against Oakland, Kansas City in New York, you had 12 of his 26 TDs on the season, so it's like in three games was his half of his fantasy production.
00:14:20
So he was a frustrating player and it showed with It's finished now that the Q B three spot going back six years.
00:14:28
We've also seen finishes of Q B 13 Q p nine Q B 12 35 and actually, I earn Rogers.
00:14:38
Ah, he, um book.
00:14:44
Gosh, what you guys call out when you have bookends? There we go.
00:14:48
There you go. Come the money.
00:14:50
It fits this.
00:14:52
Aaron Rodgers bookends the study because he is a Q B two back in 2014.
00:14:59
So, you know, overall, six year averaged 80 p is for 10 Still very expensive him as 1/4 round pick.
00:15:06
Ah, lot of other positions of need at that point in your draft and the overall average finishes Q B 14.
00:15:13
So not so great.
00:15:15
And of course, there was only one instance in six years where you know somebody matter exceeded their draft position.
00:15:22
Yeah, that's that's not as great.
00:15:24
We're falling back to the Q B one level here, you know, only 17% of the time did your Q B theme three and drafts finish in the top six at the position overall at season's end and 67% of the time you got a Q B 12 or better out of that three spot for quarterback.
00:15:43
So not great now.
00:15:46
Like you said, the price is better at the fourth round.
00:15:49
But, like Ben just said with the Q B two's, Typically that person's being drafted in the eighth round and you're you're drafting a Q B two in the second round.
00:15:58
I'd much rather get somebody with that kind of volatility much later.
00:16:02
So again, prices everything this year.
00:16:06
The third the third drafted quarterback in draft so far is to Sean Watson once again going at the 408 mark.
00:16:19
Very interesting.
00:16:20
And when you look at it from the opposite perspective where the actual Q B three finishers over the past six season were drafted, they were drafted on average at the 809 spot as the 80 p q b 11.
00:16:34
So when you take in the information that you're only getting a positive, our allies 17% of the time you're paying on average of 4 10 price and getting Q B 14 production as a result, and you only even have top six upside 17% of time.
00:16:49
I'm gonna go ahead and wait several rounds later into the 80 p q B 11 to 13 range and give myself a much better chance at a much cheaper price to get the top and Judy production that you're targeting in the first place.
00:17:02
Hey, so sorry.
00:17:03
Visit the same old song real quick, 25% through.
00:17:07
We've gone through the top three spots, and really only one of them so far is really worth their price.
00:17:13
I mean, you're it's a dark throw right now.
00:17:15
We're back in 33% for the top three drafted quarterbacks and draft so far.
00:17:20
I hope it gets better all the time.
00:17:23
The old adage is that you if you want to win championships and fantasy, you gotta wait on quarterback.
00:17:28
It is.
00:17:29
That's why we do these studies toe bear out whether or not those things were true and so far like you said through the top three, it holds pretty well.
00:17:37
So, Steve, once it look like as we round out into the top four of the 80 p q B's over the last six years, Yes, so you know, I just want to say this because I'm trying to avoid even talking about this before, but your guys his point, though.
00:17:55
You know, I think there's a lot of people out there.
00:17:57
They're like, you know, hey, you wait on quarterback because of you know, the other positions that are harder to replace that are valuable and I totally understand that.
00:18:04
But I do think there's still a lot of people out there that do believe.
00:18:08
Hey, this guy's elite, He'll give me elite production.
00:18:11
I'm gonna score Tana points of this quarterback.
00:18:13
I'll get an advantage.
00:18:14
I can more easily and accurately pick a top end quarterback.
00:18:18
And that's the study kind of shows is like I'm sorry, but that hit rates on quarterbacks.
00:18:24
It's such a deep in volatile position that like and luck, do you have that? So it's just another reason to wait on quarterback.
00:18:30
And could we just get the Q B five? Okay, come on, just say it, All right.
00:18:36
So if it pains me to say on multiple levels but the 80 p Q before in 2019 with Baker Mayfield going at the six of three on average? Um, you two Q B 19 finish.
00:18:51
So not too hot of definitely one of bigger disappointments in 2019.
00:18:56
Obviously, we remember the Browns were steamrolling in the latter part of 2018.
00:19:01
They add Odo, back of Junior Sky's the limit.
00:19:05
Uh, treetops.
00:19:09
Eso keeping 19 finish and we'll go ahead and work 2018 down from 2014.
00:19:15
We've seen the other finishes.
00:19:17
Its Q B A Q B 15 Q B five Q B six and q B 15.
00:19:23
So coming out of that 80 e q B four spot, you know we have a six year average of ah, 509 draft price, so it was still pretty steep.
00:19:31
You got a lot of other starting positions to fill out there and an average finish of Q B 11.
00:19:38
Yeah, you know, I understand that quarterbacks are your highest fantasy scorers moat more often than not.
00:19:43
But like you said, Q B four so far, a 0% positive return on your investment and it doesn't get any better when you look at how they finish either in the top six or to top 12 of the position.
00:19:57
Onley 33% of the time does the Q B four finish in the top six overall.
00:20:03
The position at the end of the season and Onley 50% of the time.
00:20:08
Are you even getting a Q B one overall? Onley 50% of time is a Q before finishing in the top 12 at the position.
00:20:16
I mean, that's a 50 50.
00:20:18
It doesn't get any more of a dark throw than that.
00:20:20
And you're investing, you know, high end draft capital where you really need to hit on picks.
00:20:28
Yeah.
00:20:29
So who's the real world example that that applies to coming up? Yeah, this one's gonna be interesting this year.
00:20:34
Right now, Going at the 5 10 mark.
00:20:37
I'm sorry at the 502 mark.
00:20:40
Is Russell Wilson Very interesting? Yeah.
00:20:46
Wilson.
00:20:47
Yeah.
00:20:48
I mean a somebody who traded for Russell Wilson down the stretch last season.
00:20:52
I hope that he finds himself in a different 80 p Q B spot.
00:20:56
Get tested right? He's right.
00:20:58
So you can have a little bit better chances at success this year because when you look at it from the opposite perspective, this far is where the actual Q B fours have finished over the last six year.
00:21:10
Their average price tag is the 806 around 80 p q B 13.
00:21:15
So again it we're drilling home the same concept where 0% of the time are you getting a positive return on your investment 50% of the time you're getting a quarterback that you can't even start.
00:21:29
That sounds like a streamer to me.
00:21:31
Not like a quarterback that she wants to use.
00:21:33
Bibeau nine Equity on All right, So when you're telling me that on average, when you're getting the actual que before production way later, three rounds later on average, there's just no reason to try to pull the trigger on a quarterback.
00:21:49
So Steve does.
00:21:50
It doesn't change at all for 80 p q b five.
00:21:53
Or is this just how it's gonna be from now? Uh, well, by and large, that is how it's gonna be.
00:21:59
But that Q B 5 80 p spot.
00:22:02
Uh, it's a little surprising, actually was.
00:22:06
So I was putting together the study.
00:22:08
I did kind of expected, you know, it just to be like I'm sure it's gonna be until we start getting some of these later spots where the our allies gonna be a little bit better.
00:22:17
We're going to start seeing like a you know a little bit better value on some of these guys.
00:22:21
And, um, it does look decent out this position now.
00:22:23
Last season, it was Matt Ryan, Good old Matty ice good old, reliable going at the same time. Nine.
00:22:29
Ah finishes Q B nine Pretty, you know, you solid.
00:22:33
He actually missed his first start of his career, I believe, last season, but still finished with Q B nine production now 2018 through 14.
00:22:41
We've also seen finishes out of the spot of Q B seven Q b one Q B three Q B 22 in q B one.
00:22:51
Hey, so, yeah, I was, ah, pretty surprised as to see that.
00:22:55
So not only did 50% of the time you actually got, like a positive are oi on your investment, but we had three, you know, rather elite finishes in an overall, you know, six year average draft price of a 603 in a Q B seven finish.
00:23:11
Not not that bad.
00:23:12
Hey, we found a sweet spot here in the sixth round with the Q B five overall.
00:23:17
I like it 50% of the time they're finishing Q B six or better.
00:23:23
83% of the time they're finishing Q B 12 or better.
00:23:26
I like those odds a lot better than what we've seen so far with the Q B five in drafts and this season, the current Q B five talk about another interesting one going at the 5 10 mark is Kyler Murray.
00:23:44
Wow, look out! Hey, you know what? That lines up perfect perfectly for me and my perception of Kyler Murray's outlook this season.
00:23:54
Second year in that offense locked down Kenyan Drake as the definite starter.
00:23:59
The running back position.
00:24:00
And don't forget they brought in DeAndre Hopkins.
00:24:02
Yeah, so that is a very interesting one when you when you look at it from the opposite side, where have the actual Q B five finishers been drafted over each of the last six seasons? On average, you're actually seeing them as the 80 p q B six.
00:24:18
So now we're starting to really a C a little bit more balance of draft price and production, and when you look at the fact that a you're getting a positive ah, rely on your investment 50% of the time on average at the 603 spot.
00:24:32
That's a very reasonable price in a very nice return rate.
00:24:35
And then when you look at the top 6% you get that half the time and then overwhelmingly, 83% of the time, you've gotta start herbal quarterback.
00:24:43
That sounds like you've got your locked and loaded starting quarterback for me all season, so I think we have found a sweet spot.
00:24:50
So are 80 p.
00:24:51
Q b five and 80 p.
00:24:53
Q B five.
00:24:54
Get your official foresight.
00:24:55
Blessing.
00:24:56
Steve doesn't continue on it.
00:24:57
80 p Q b six does not.
00:25:04
Uh, so for that, no gonna be able to stay hot like that.
00:25:10
So Drew Brees was our 80 p q b six in 2019 and you know his Q B 24 finish coming out of the 702 spot is kind of interesting in the fact that he's still through 27 touchdowns and essentially 10 games because, you know, he missed five stars, but he I think Week two when he left against what? San Francisco.
00:25:32
I think it was very early in the contest, but still you weren't happy if you spent the 702 on breeze because you were missing him for nearly half your fantasy season, right? So, you know, that's definitely a miss right there.
00:25:47
Working our way back to 2014.
00:25:49
We've also seen finishes of out of this Q B six spot of Q B 10-Q B 19 Q B 19 1 shining example.
00:25:57
Thank you, Tom Brady, quarterback to and then quarterback A.
00:26:01
So you know, on a six year average where you're spending the 609 so still very, you know, very valuable draft capital.
00:26:07
We're seeing an overall finish of Q B 14 on average and only one instance one instance in six years where you know, you were happy with the pick that you made coming out of the q B six spot.
00:26:20
And I'm sure if you're listening, you kind of hear some of those numbers.
00:26:22
And you think, Okay, you know, freak injury.
00:26:25
You can't really take that into account.
00:26:27
But if you look at the last six years, they're not.
00:26:29
All those bad performances aren't all injuries.
00:26:32
You had breeze who have was injured, but you have a couple other that were just disappointing seasons.
00:26:38
So that is something that you certainly can factor in.
00:26:41
So when we look at how they finished Q one through 12 the Q B six only finished in the top 6 17% of the time over the last six years.
00:26:52
The Q B six only finished as in the top 12 as a star doble quarterback on Lee half the time 50% of the time.
00:27:01
Not a great return.
00:27:03
So again, who is that heading into the 2020 season at the 606 mark? Somebody we just talked a little bit about Aaron Rodgers.
00:27:14
Interesting.
00:27:16
Lots of drama there in Green Bay.
00:27:17
Doesn't I was going to say, Doesn't that line up with drama that they've got going on and cream pay between a Rajan That front off alleging staff? Oh, man, about a coin.
00:27:30
You know, another spot where, like Steve said, you're on average of talking about the 609 That's not chump change by any means and and when you look at it from the opposite perspective, the actual Q B six finishers over the last six years were drafted on average at the 9 12 spot as the 80 p q B 13 reached another point in the draft where you're our allies. 17%.
00:27:55
You're talking about another streamer type guy when it comes to usability percentages on Lee being herbal 50% of the time again, that is not mash up with that 609 draft equity.
00:28:06
So this is another spot that just the data shows that you can wait.
00:28:10
No, the Q B seven I want.
00:28:13
Let's let's reset.
00:28:14
We're halfway through.
00:28:16
And if you take a look at this, even if you're in a super Flex league and you're paying this time this type of half top or top of the draft for a quarterback and you're only getting returns as a start herbal quarterback 50% of the time when you're going in to get your second Q B I mean, you're really have it puts the pressure on you gotta hit that pick, and everything that I'm hearing so far from Steed and Ben's data is quarterbacks are being drafted at the top end of drafts between Rounds two and Round six, and yet the best performers are being waited on until around seven through nine.
00:28:52
So if that's not a message to everybody listening, I don't know what is now.
00:28:58
Is there better value in the second half of the drafts for quarterbacks taken? We shall find out Steve O.
00:29:06
Let's kick it off with Q B seven, All right? And that's that's gonna get your blood pressure up a little bit, Shea, Because that would be Mr Carson Wentz of the Philippine.
00:29:16
Ah, going at the 703 last season.
00:29:21
Now he finished q b 10.
00:29:23
Not terrible, you know, finishing that Q B one range.
00:29:26
But you know, there are a lot of people on that Eagles bandwagon.
00:29:30
Last season, heading into the year you had, you know, supposedly all Sean Jeffries was getting healthy, supposedly to Sean Jackson eyes.
00:29:37
I see what you dio I stretch sorry, you know, came back to Philly and they were supposed to be a pretty explosive offense.
00:29:45
And, you know, I think it's a shame that you'd probably agree to have a Q B 10 fancy finish out of wince when he actually was healthy and played all season.
00:29:54
So yeah, yeah, but I don't Greste.
00:29:58
So, yeah, out of that Q B seven spot going back to 2014 we've seen a Q B 12 Q b 18 Q B 13 Q B three and q B seven eso an overall cost over the last six years.
00:30:13
A 702 is usually what's gonna take and, ah q B 11 finish overall and 1/3 33% of the time.
00:30:22
You got no pretty nice are oi out of that pick? Well, you know, I hear some of those numbers I hear q b three.
00:30:30
I hear q b seven, and that sounds great.
00:30:32
But if we're talking about trends, it's certainly trending the wrong way.
00:30:35
Because the last four years, the best finish out of the Q B seven and drafts is Q B 10 overall and the other three times there.
00:30:44
They're either barely or not even in the top 12 at the position on Lee 17% of the time in the last six years do they finish in the top six, giving you a positive return on investment and 67% of the time they do finish as a start herbal quarterback in 12 team leagues.
00:31:02
So that's nice, but you're also bacon on 33% of the time.
00:31:06
You're not even getting a start.
00:31:07
Herbal quarterback in that Q B seven spot now heading into the 2020 season.
00:31:12
The Q B seven going in the back end of the sixth round with the 11th pick is Dak Prescott.
00:31:21
Man.
00:31:22
Does he have a tunnel Weapons over there in Dallas? I e.
00:31:27
Just cannot wait to see what happens with this contract if, uh, if he's all happy going into the season or if he is the one thing that is going to kind of put a rope bench in everything down there.
00:31:39
So you know, I got to get that guy paid so he could be tossing it around all those weapons that you drafted for him.
00:31:45
When you look at the flip side of this study, the actual Q B seven on average, are being drafted as the 80 p q B nines over the last six season at the 709 spot.
00:31:55
So we're getting to the point where you know the 80 p average is starting to really line up with the actual Q B finishers 80 p averages.
00:32:03
And this is another situation just for me personally, where you might look at the R A Y percentage of 33%.
00:32:10
You might look at the trends over the last four years and think that it's not that good of a spot to get a quarterback.
00:32:17
But when you're talking about the point of the seventh round and you're getting a star notable quarterback 2/3 of the time, it gets to the point where, depending on the way you've structured your roster and depending on who that quarterback 80 p quarterback seven is, it might be a time to start looking at picking your spots just because you know you're on the right side of a start.
00:32:38
Herbal quarterback, a 50 50 is really a streamer guy.
00:32:41
Anything more than that is kind of getting towards like that back in Q B one start, herbal type of guy.
00:32:46
So, you know, at this point I would still air on the side of caution, probably, and just wait on my quarterback.
00:32:52
But it's not the worst spot in the world if you are somebody that's historically like J and in a super rushed to get your quarterback in drafts.
00:33:00
Yeah, great good segment for the next one, though.
00:33:03
I wonder how ah how Q B eight fared overall and Yeah, really quick.
00:33:08
Before we get to that, I'm sure you guys would agree.
00:33:10
And I have to think the 80 p is going to change dramatically.
00:33:14
But so Dak Prescott is going after Aaron Rodgers right now, right? Is that what it was? 86 for everyone right now is absolutely right.
00:33:26
Yeah, that's a lot of films. Gold.
00:33:28
There's a lot of fools gold in these 80 piece right now.
00:33:30
We call them the quote way too early 80 piece for a reason, because there's only a couple of knuckleheads like us out there are actually paying it 80 pieces stuff at this time of the year.
00:33:42
But I remember last year there were so many guys that we were super excited about what their price tag and when.
00:33:47
Every episode as we got closer to the season, we just saw their price go up and up and up and up.
00:33:52
And like he said, Steve, I totally expect the same thing for Dad.
00:33:55
I know, I know, Dak.
00:33:56
Today, Raj would both love to have Marqise Goodwin on their team.
00:33:59
Though that was really over.
00:34:02
Not everybody can be is lucky is Carson. Thanks.
00:34:05
I know what can you dio, man? All right, So before we hit this die aggression, Steve was about to get started on 80 p.
00:34:13
Q b eight and that would be none other than Jared Goff.
00:34:18
Last season Hey was drafted at the 709 coming off of, you know? Yeah, definitely a fantasy relevant.
00:34:24
2018 season finished is Key.
00:34:27
Be 15.
00:34:28
And some of that was because he simply did not find the end zone very much.
00:34:33
Last season I was checking out a stats and I'm like, Oh, dude threw for over 4600 yards but Yikes! 22 touchdowns on 626 pass attempts like talk about efficient.
00:34:46
Um, and that's ultimately why he finished outside of that QB one range, it could be 15 now working back toe 2014 we've seen out of this Q B eight spot, Q B 2123 2019 goal and throw up a little in my own mouth.
00:35:04
Yeah, I'm sorry.
00:35:05
It's Nick Foles q B 29 boom, Yeah, not not a single one of these guys has come close to returning on their investment by a long shot and you know, with an overall average draft cost of the seven away, you know you could still be finishing out your starting Ross Shuras point.
00:35:23
Sure, that's I mean that that's a big, big miss right there.
00:35:27
No, no, It's very interesting, too, because Ben's telling me in his ****ysis that the top scoring quarterbacks can be had in the seventh round.
00:35:36
And then you're telling me currently, the Q B seven over the last six years is taken in the seventh round and they're giving you a 0% chance of having a start.
00:35:47
Herbal quarter packets.
00:35:48
Just it's mind boggling.
00:35:50
We had a sweet spot for sure, a sweet spot of not good at the Q B. A position.
00:35:57
Now, who is that heading into the 2020 season Q B eight going at the seventh pick of the seventh round is Carson wins.
00:36:08
Don't touch him.
00:36:11
Awesome.
00:36:12
Good thing they drafted a lot of, you know, top end talent at receiver.
00:36:16
They did get a lot of receivers.
00:36:19
I'm just not sure they're going to be great.
00:36:21
We'll see, though, worry like we said, these 80 piece we're gonna change.
00:36:25
Your guy will be in a enough their spot that won't turn, You know, it would have been great.
00:36:28
Justin Jefferson, Whatever. Move on.
00:36:32
I mean, like we said 0% our ally on this pic 0% of the time you're getting a start.
00:36:39
Herbal quarterback Whoever is the q B eight in your draft it whoever is the 80 p. Q b A in your draft.
00:36:45
Just avoid them like the plague, no matter what their name is, because over the last six years you're you're able to get actual Q B eight production on average, two rounds later at the 901 with with an 80 p Q B rank of around Q B 15.
00:37:01
So even if you feel like you wake you be eight.
00:37:05
Even if you feel like you waited, wait a little bit more exactly like you held out long enough, just hold out a little bit longer.
00:37:13
Stack that bench with a couple of quality upside running backs your wide receivers that have the potential to blow up a and then address your quarterback in a couple more rounds.
00:37:22
So, Steve, we're running out of positions.
00:37:25
We need a couple more in the positive tally.
00:37:28
Does it start with a P Q B nine.
00:37:32
Yeah, this Cuban I spot.
00:37:34
Hey, does those are, you know, trend positively.
00:37:38
And it starts out last season with Russell Wilson, who was being drafting this Cuban, a spot with an average of draft costs at the 804 he finished Q B five.
00:37:49
Now I know it was one of the most frustrating Q B five finishes of all time, and that's just the offense that he stuck in, right.
00:37:56
I mean, sometimes he carries that team, puts a week winning performances, and then other times they were on the ball 45 times.
00:38:02
What can you dio? But he did finish TV five.
00:38:05
And if you're taking him with the 804 you, you have to be happy with that.
00:38:11
Sure, now 2018.
00:38:14
We saw a lot of Q B nine spot Q B six finish.
00:38:17
A Q B six finish after that should be 11.
00:38:21
Tony Romo Q B 40.
00:38:23
I believe that was the end of his career and then Q B 13 back in 2014 But so overall, when you look at a six year average, you know you're looking at an early eighth round pick of the 801 but an average finish of Q B 14.
00:38:38
And that's what that Q B 40 finish that Romo had in half the time.
00:38:43
You're getting a positive, our ally out of that pick, maybe nine position, Steve.
00:38:48
Even better than that half the time you're getting a top six quarterback with that Q B nine spots.
00:38:55
So you're getting a great return on your investment.
00:38:58
And even better, 67% of the time.
00:39:01
You're getting a solid starting Q B and 12 team formats.
00:39:06
You're getting a Q B 12 or better 67% of the time out of the Q B nine spot going in that spot heading into the 2020 season, right now in a teepee early in the eighth round.
00:39:19
Is Josh Allen my guy of it? Yeah, I would say I like Josh Island had into this season.
00:39:28
And when you look at the last three seasons in particular, that's when you're getting three consecutive top six Q B performances out of this 80 p Q B nine slot, and then when you look at it from the opposite perspective, you're getting actual Q B nine production.
00:39:44
You know, pretty, you know another do rounds after this point around the 10 06 spot with an 80 p rank of Q B 16.
00:39:52
But I'll say this both the 80 p q B nine and the actual Q B nines over the last six years.
00:39:58
Air Pretty Even when you consider the odds versus the price, however, here's the differentiator.
00:40:03
For me, the 80 p q B nine offers a surprising amount of top six upside with a you know, with still a pretty sustainable 2/3 of the time being a star doble quarterback.
00:40:14
So at that price, it seems worst birth, the upside potential and the relative safety net that that position seems to provide.
00:40:22
So Steve O that keep going for 80 p.
00:40:24
Q B 10? Not at all.
00:40:27
But I almost just want to call this because the worst finish we've had is also the same guy who has had the best finish that we've had it this q B 10 spot and I'll give it away by saying it was Cam Newton.
00:40:42
Last season that was being drafted at the A 10 is Q B 10 in drafts and Ah, you know, finish Q B 50.
00:40:49
I believe I saw that he scored less than 18 total fancy points because he only played in two games and did not account for any kind of touchdown.
00:40:56
So, you know, obviously had a tough, tough goal of it last year.
00:41:01
And, you know, working our way back to 2014 we have seen Q B 39 Cam Newton, Q B three Q B 21 Q B 24 Q B 12 you know.
00:41:14
So overall, over six year average, the cost of that positions Bennett the 806 you know, not heavily expensive, but you know, you do want to get somebody who you would want to keep on your roster beyond the 1st 3 weeks because I average quarterback finishes 25.
00:41:32
And, like I said, there was only that one instance where if you reached on, if you have the courage to take Cam Newton in 2017 Q B 10 he did give you a really nice elite Q B two refinished.
00:41:43
But outside of that, yeah, we've fallen off the wagon.
00:41:47
Let's see if with the Q B 10 spot, you're getting a top six quarterback only 17% of the time, you're only getting a only 34% of the time.
00:41:59
Are you getting a star Doble quarterback, a top 12 quarterback in that Q B 10 spots? So not the sweet spot we're looking for and going in that spot heading into the 2020 season at the 809 say it isn't so.
00:42:13
Matt Ryan.
00:42:14
No, come on, man, that's a That's gonna move.
00:42:18
He's moving up.
00:42:19
Its for sure moving up like you ve nine sweet spot.
00:42:24
They are gonna be a nice year for Matty Ice.
00:42:26
The actual Q B 10 performers over the last six years were actually drafted on average at the 902 spot with an 80 p rank of Q B 11.
00:42:36
So right around the spot that we're talking about so you're getting nitty gritty at this point.
00:42:40
But 80 p Q.
00:42:42
B 10 offers just a 33% chance to get a top 12 Q B.
00:42:47
At this point in the draft, where it's you're still valuable bears out there with such low upside potential.
00:42:53
It's just the spot where you need to stack that bench and keep waiting.
00:42:56
Steve, we've got two left eye.
00:42:59
We need at least one good 80 p quarterback performance over the last six years to be at a 50 50% on this podcast tonight.
00:43:07
So how did the 80 p q B 11 fair? You know, when I went through this study, this was actually my favorite spot, that I saw all of all of them.
00:43:16
And it's not because it's a good spot.
00:43:18
It just to meet proves the volatility of fantasy quarterbacks and why you're just better suited toe weight.
00:43:26
That way you don't have a ton of draft capital and a guy you spend a lot on that you just you that way, you know, you're just not willing to let go That guy spend so much draft capital.
00:43:36
At least if you take these guys late and you miss, cause you're probably gonna miss on a lot of these quarterbacks a cut bait and pick up a guy who is performing off the waiver wire, What not But yeah, out of this spot.
00:43:48
Lamar Jackson was drafted last season.
00:43:50
Obviously, what can you even say about a quarterback who throws for 36 touchdowns? and Russia's also for 200 yards.
00:43:58
I mean, ridiculous.
00:43:59
He won so many titles for people because he got drafted this late, however, and I should say he was, on average, drafted of the 902 However, the rest of this the five years prior is just horrific.
00:44:15
I mean, quarterback 20 Andrew Luck didn't play in 2017.
00:44:18
Quarterback 17 quarterback, 18 16.
00:44:22
So outside of Lamar Jackson, there really hasn't been any positivity out of the quarterback 11 slot.
00:44:28
And, like I said, I found that interesting.
00:44:31
Just because it's it's like you have possibly the greatest fancy performance of all time out.
00:44:36
Of course, you could have return on investment over the last six years.
00:44:40
Pretty gross.
00:44:41
Like I said now in that spot in 2012 right now, going in midway through the ninth round with the fifth pick is Kirk Cousins.
00:44:53
I kind of get it.
00:44:55
I don't flame me there.
00:44:58
80 p Q.
00:44:59
B 11 somehow offers even less likelihood that you'll land a usable Q B than 80 p.
00:45:05
Q B 10.
00:45:06
So it has somehow gotten were you've hit a point in the draft reminders.
00:45:10
Well, keep waiting and throw a cheaper dart later on because the actual Q B Elevens over the past six years, our draft and on average about around later at the 9 12 spot with an 80 p rank of Q B 14.
00:45:24
So Steve, we've got the last Oh, the love that were covered tonight.
00:45:29
Tell me that we're gonna finish strong.
00:45:31
How did the 80 p q B 12 fair over the last six seasons? So, yeah, guys, the Q B 12 spot seems to be the absolute sweet spot on draft, so it's almost like, hey, wait to draft the quarterback, literally.
00:45:45
Wait till the last starting quarterback, the ADP 12 and you'll get somebody a two very least solid and return.
00:45:52
And last year, our q B 12 80 p was Jamis Winston.
00:45:56
The 909 finishes to you before Mr 30 30 himself.
00:46:02
I know he's a guy that was really hard to want to start week in and week out because you didn't know is Jamie's gonna go out, throw three picks in the first quarter and get pulled.
00:46:10
And sometimes he did throw three picks in the first quarter, but he'd still just keep chucking it all the way to a key before finish.
00:46:17
Now we're gonna way back to 2014.
00:46:20
We've seen this spot finish a Q B 11 Q B seven Q B eight Q B 12 Q B 10 with an over all average of within six years of Q B nine and a cost at the 906 And obviously, based on this finishes, I just told you that's 100% of the time in the past six years.
00:46:38
That quarterback coming out of that 12 spot has given you a positive are oi, which is which is awesome.
00:46:45
I no fan of the show.
00:46:46
Travis is watching this, and he hears us say there's a sweet spot in that sweet spot.
00:46:51
Last year was Jamis Winston.
00:46:53
I know he's getting a kick out of that, and I can't believe it.
00:46:55
But that spot, I tell you, we found too sweet spots in the top 12 quarterbacks taken and drafts.
00:47:03
That's Q B two and Q B 12 Q B 12 17% of time is giving you a top six quarterback at the end of the season, and 100% of the time they are finishing in the top 12 100% of time.
00:47:18
They're giving you a legit solid starting quarterback come season end. That is phenomenal.
00:47:24
So who is that heading into 2020? That is none other going in the with.
00:47:30
The sixth pick of the ninth round is Jimmy G.
00:47:34
Whoa, that's interesting.
00:47:37
That definitely gonna change Jimmy.
00:47:40
Jeez, Ability to be a study.
00:47:42
You be Ah ah.
00:47:44
This is the first and only time on this podcast episode tonight that we simultaneously see a 100% r A y and a 100% usability, right? Even that nice 80 p q b two had that lower Arli compared to the very nice usability.
00:48:04
So when you look at that, that 80 p Q B to price tag, on average is the 3 11 The 80 p q B 12 price tag, on average, is the 906 and you're getting on average Q B nine production, and every once in a while you get top six passion 0% bus straight after more than the last decade of that love.
00:48:28
So I mean, we have found we have found six spots in this draft where it appears to be at least a favorable roll of the dice to try to target a quarterback in the top 12 Q B or top 12 80 p.
00:48:44
Q. B's in a given draft.
00:48:46
But by and large, man, you wanna wait on a quarterback because that means six of the time it goes the other way.
00:48:52
And you're talking about precious draft equity that can be spent on, you know, running back wide receivers, tight ends.
00:48:59
And you can just wait on that quarterback and even stream them throughout the season if you have to. You so moral.
00:49:05
The moral of the story is you can pick your spots for the right guy, by and large is going to serve you much better.
00:49:11
Toe Wait. Yep.
00:49:12
Well, hey, guys, we did it First preview episode for the 2020 season underway.
00:49:18
Our reliability study is under way.
00:49:21
We've got a few more episodes coming up done.
00:49:24
Do you want to fill everybody in absolutely over the next three weeks, we're going to do look at pretty much the same thing for every other position.
00:49:33
Next week.
00:49:34
It's the running backs.
00:49:35
The week after that, it's the wide receivers and following up, round out.
00:49:38
This series is going to be the tight ends, man.
00:49:41
It's fun.
00:49:42
It's great having Steve back on.
00:49:44
Steve's gonna be back on with us for the rest of these Siri's.
00:49:47
Steve, you got anything else you want to add before we headed out tonight? Uh, I mean, not necessarily.
00:49:53
Guys just again want to say thanks.
00:49:55
It was nice to get in the talks in fantasy, football always is so lonely, you know, unfortunately, now until next week, I have toe go back to reality.
00:50:05
But no, the next three weeks will be a lot of fun doing the same thing with the other positions.
00:50:11
I think it'll, you know, give us our listeners kind of a good perspective on, you know, like the odds and hit rate on these different positions.
00:50:20
And I think it's gonna show it through why, you know, when we reflect on what we just talked about these quarterbacks, it's like, you know, I can live with myself missing in the second or third round on a running back or wide receiver, but it's hard to want to live with yourself if you if you throw away one of those picks on a quarterback, given how very difficult it is to actually get, like the return on investment considering draft capital.
00:50:44
So it's gonna be a lot of fun.
00:50:45
It's gonna be interesting.
00:50:47
You guys, listen, there's no better way to build your base heading into draft season than these studies.
00:50:55
It just gives you such a clear picture come draft time of what your strategy should be.
00:51:01
And then when we get into the actual team in division previews, then you could start pinpointing the guys You want a target.
00:51:07
So we got to start somewhere, and these episodes air it absolutely.
00:51:12
And over the next several weeks, Steve's going to supplement all this information in the form of a written blog's.
00:51:17
So that's gonna be on our force, an encyclopedia tab at fantasy foresight dot com.
00:51:24
And so whether you whether you like toe get your information through a podcast or through wit narrative form, we've got it all a fantasy foresight.
00:51:32
It's great to be back with you guys.
00:51:34
You know, I I love this series every year.
00:51:38
It helps prepare you for your draft.
00:51:39
So much put so many things in so many healthy concepts into perspective and in your mind heading into the season.
00:51:45
And next week, we have got the all important running backs.
00:51:48
Can't wait.
00:51:59
Welcome, everyone to fantasy Foresight, The podcast where your host and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com coming to you from the Rambo fixture Company studios.
00:52:09
I'm Ben and I'm Jay ready to get rolling J. You know it.
00:52:13
Let's do this right, let's go.
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Fantasy Foresight @FantasyForesight

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00:00:21
welcome everyone to fantasy foresight.
00:00:23
The podcasts where your host and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com coming to you from the Rambo fixture Company studios.
00:00:31
I'm Ben, and I'm Jay ready to get rolling J.
00:00:34
You know it.
00:00:35
Let's do this right.
00:00:37
Let's go.
00:00:41
Welcome in everyone.
00:00:43
It is Thursday, April 30th.
00:00:45
We've got our guy, the Foresight Encyclopedia, back with us tonight and once again fantasy Foresight.
00:00:51
The podcast is live.
00:00:53
How you doing tonight, Jay? Ben? Glad to be here.
00:00:55
Glad to kick off our preparation for the 2020 season.
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We've got the live video going.
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Hopefully, the audio sounds crisp and great.
00:01:03
Steve, how are you doing tonight, my friend? First and foremost, just let me say thank you, gentlemen, for having me on this evening.
00:01:12
I'm doing fantastic as I typically am, but I just want to stress that I am thankful to be on doing this with you guys right now.
00:01:20
Because as we've all been through the wringer lately and certainly welcome the distraction of talking fantasy football with my guys Hey, perfect Segway.
00:01:30
Steve, before we get started, I just wanted to take a quick minute.
00:01:34
Like you said, there's been a lot going on the world in the world that we are all aware of, Cove in 19 is all over the place, and it's something we're all dealing with.
00:01:43
And because of that, the team here, a fantasy foresight in conjunction with our show sponsor Rambo Fixture company for the last month or two, has been coordinating a fund raiser to raise funds to purchase PPE and namely N 95 masks for medical professionals.
00:02:02
And it's really been, are the response by you the listeners by friends, family.
00:02:08
Everybody has been tremendous.
00:02:10
We have provided over 1250 95 masks, 2 31 facilities and hundreds of medical workers.
00:02:19
So one, I want to say, a big thank you to It was an exciting day today because we were featured by Gulick and Lingo as their hometown hero of the day.
00:02:30
We received a personal message from Stefania Bell, who we love on this show, So it was really a just a tremendous day.
00:02:39
The whole team deserves credit.
00:02:41
It's been a team effort.
00:02:43
We couldn't thank you enough.
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It was just a great way to start this day, a day that we get to come to you live, and it's a day where I just want to really send out a plea for help.
00:02:56
Um, our efforts are ongoing.
00:02:58
We would like to supply more masks to medical professionals.
00:03:02
We don't want this effort toe end by any means.
00:03:05
And I received a call today actually from our league mates, Uh, who? This who kind of was the basis for all of this starting.
00:03:14
And he was telling me that in his hospital in Akron, Ohio, he has toe wear his mask, not an N 95 mask, his cloth mask, his surgical mask for three days before he gets a new one.
00:03:29
So the need is still there.
00:03:31
PPE is still needed.
00:03:34
Materials in general are still needed by our health care workers.
00:03:38
And it's ironic that on this day I also got a call from my father, who was going in to be tested for Cove in 19 tomorrow.
00:03:46
He's an 80 year old man, so you know, he's obviously in my thoughts and prayers, but the effort is still there.
00:03:53
It's not going away any time soon, so if you would support the measure, I know it's a tough time for everybody.
00:03:59
We've already received a lot of support, but if you have it in, you share our our, uh, our campaign, if you would on your social media platforms.
00:04:09
If you can make a donation, we'd obviously very much appreciate it.
00:04:12
Now that that's out of the way, let's dive in to fantasy football much welcome distraction at this point.
00:04:22
Well, before we dive into that real quick, just like I said last week, man, we're all really proud of you.
00:04:28
And special shoutout goes to, ah, out foresight.
00:04:31
Family men are guys.
00:04:32
Zach, you're sending the night.
00:04:34
Golic and Wing go in the first place, and then it's It's super cool.
00:04:38
The CIA's personalized message from ESPN Stefania Bell and then all of a sudden, seeing retweets from Matthew Berry field the eights like it's, you know, Trey Wingo himself.
00:04:48
Yes, it was exciting day in a perfect day when we're all set to come back together and record tonight, so let's go absolute.
00:04:57
Here's how tonight's episode is going to work.
00:05:00
This 80 p podcast Siri's is all based on Steve's blog's studies examining the six year history of Q B's comparing 80 peas to their actual fantasy finishes.
00:05:10
You can find all Steve's great work under the fantasy.
00:05:13
The foresight in Cycling India tab at fantasy foresight dot com and follow him on Twitter at FF Underscore Encyclopedia.
00:05:22
We're going to be looking at three p key pieces of information tonight for each of the 12 highest drafted quarterbacks over the last six seasons.
00:05:31
First, we're going to look if they lived up to or hopefully exceeded their 80 p price tag.
00:05:37
Second, we'll take a look at the relative usability percentages to see how often they finished as an actual start.
00:05:44
Herbal Fantasy Q B And just for fun, we'll check out the way too early.
00:05:48
80 piece at fantasy football calculator dot com To get current examples of the Q B's, these concepts apply to Third will look at it from the opposite perspective and examine where the actual top 12 quarterback performers were drafted over the last six years.
00:06:04
After ****yzing all that data together, will identify the points in the draft with the highest to be upside the safest floor and the best draft points to target Q B one production in your upcoming drafts this season.
00:06:16
As a reminder this is all from the perspective of 12 team redraft PPR Leagues are Our fantasy finishes came from weeks one through 16 at fantasy pose dot com and PPR leagues formats and are 80 p.
00:06:30
Information always comes from fantasy football calculator dot com.
00:06:34
All right, love, as this is from a redraft perspective, but there's also some valuable insights for you Dynasty players out there.
00:06:43
So without further ado, Steve, how did the number one overall drafted quarterbacks perform over the last six seasons? All right, well, we're going to go ahead and kick it off with our 80 p Q B one of 2019 and I think we all know who that was.
00:06:59
And that's Patrick Mahomes.
00:07:00
He was going at the 207 80 p every single season because this happens time and time again, guys.
00:07:07
So I'll just work my way back 2018 back to 2014 just give you the Q B finishes of the 80 p q B one, and that would be after Patrick Mahomes.
00:07:18
We have a Q B four Hubie 28 q B 16 q B 28 Hubie five.
00:07:26
A couple of okay, finishes in there.
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But really, when you're on average over a six year period, it's spending that to 10 on a quarterback.
00:07:35
You have to get in a leaks high end fantasy championship caliber season, and these guys have averaged a Q B 15 finish and obviously not a single time.
00:07:45
You heard those finishes not a single time, that one of them even come close to giving you the return on investment that you laid out there to pick him up.
00:07:54
Crazy Steve.
00:07:55
So 0% of the time did the Q B one overall in drafts finish as Q B one in the last six years and worse than that, get this Onley 33% of the time.
00:08:09
Do they finish in the top six and quarterbacks, and only 50% of the time do they finish in the top 12 Onley half the time the number one drafted quarterback finishes as a number one quarterback in general.
00:08:26
A top 12? I mean, that is your only getting a start herbal quarterback half the time when you are drafting the number one overall Q b crazy, just crazy.
00:08:40
33% of the time, the number one selected Q B in the last six years finished outside the top 25 33% of the time.
00:08:52
That is just that is alarming now.
00:08:57
So we shift our focus and put a name to that information heading into the 2020 season.
00:09:02
Right now, as you would expect, the current Q B one in way too early.
00:09:08
ADP going at the 209 mark right around where Pat Mahomes was going last year is Lamar Jackson.
00:09:18
Yeah, I mean, like Steve said, it's all about perception versus reality.
00:09:22
You cannot be chasing the performance of last year.
00:09:25
The variables change every season, and you know it's just not there for the overall 80 p q b one.
00:09:32
So when you flip this, when you look at this from the opposite angle and you look at where the actual Q B one overalls have finished over the last six years on average, those guys air drafted at the 7 10 spot askew who be nine.
00:09:49
All right, so when you take a look, a.
00:09:51
The fact that on average, your top drafted quarterbacks are taken at the to 10 spot with an average finished a Q B 15.
00:09:57
And then you couple that with the fact that they're only even started.
00:10:00
But 50% of the time.
00:10:02
And then you look at the actual Q B ones over the last six years are drafted.
00:10:06
Five rounds later, it all adds up to stay away from that name at 80 p.
00:10:13
Q.
00:10:14
B one spot Steve Does the story change it all for the 80 p q b two.
00:10:19
Yeah, you know what it actually does.
00:10:21
Interestingly enough, we'll go ahead and look at our Q B to a.
00:10:26
Sfar is 80 piece concern last season 2019 and that his dish on Watson hey was going in before 11.
00:10:33
So just a little mental well known for everybody listening.
00:10:37
That's a full two rounds later than Patrick Mahomes and Sean Watson actually finished right where you're drafted him as a Q B two.
00:10:45
Hey, so yeah, exactly right.
00:10:48
You did have a little bit of a boomer bus type of a season, but as far as this finishes concerned, you can't really complain.
00:10:54
He finished right where you drafted him now.
00:10:57
Well, go ahead and look at 2018 down to 2014 and the finishes are actually not too bad coming out of the Q B two spot on drafts.
00:11:06
We've got a Q B five finish keeping five finish.
00:11:08
Q B one Q B seven Q b four UH, overall Q B four average finish and draft equity of Ah 3 11 so late third round pick.
00:11:20
So you know at least out of that 80 p Q.
00:11:22
B to spot.
00:11:24
You know, one out of three times you're actually getting like a solid return on your investment where that player is meeting or exceeding a draft position.
00:11:32
Yeah, that's significantly better than what we saw at the Q B.
00:11:35
One spot, you know, exceed meeting or exceeding their draft position 33% of the time with an average of Q B four is great.
00:11:43
What's even better is that 83% of the time they're finishing in the top six.
00:11:48
So the top half of Q B ones overall, which is perfectly fine, especially when you're getting them at a much better price than that q B one spot and then even better 100% of the time.
00:12:01
Over the last six years, you are getting a Q B 12 or better with that second drafted quarterback.
00:12:10
So you're getting a Q B one.
00:12:12
Regardless, he may not be q B two overall, but you're still getting a solid quarterback play with the second drafted quarterback this season.
00:12:22
Who is that going at the 2 11 mark? Just a couple spots behind Lamar Jackson? Currently so on.
00:12:28
Increased price tag for that second drafted quarterback is none other than Pat Mahomes.
00:12:33
Last year's q B one.
00:12:37
Yeah, there's not much of a difference in price tag there, so that one will definitely be interesting to watch closer to the season.
00:12:44
And, you know, this is why we wanted to add the wrinkle.
00:12:49
UH, overall relative usability, because on the surface you might look at the 80 p quarterback to and say, you know, they only return a positive our ally 33% of time.
00:12:59
That's not good.
00:13:00
But when you look from the other angle of how often are they A Q B one or a top six? Q B history shows us that it's hardly even a gamble.
00:13:09
You know eso the actual Q B to the actual finishing Q B two's over the last six years.
00:13:15
On average, you're drafted at the 8 10 spot at 80 p. Q.
00:13:20
B 13.
00:13:21
Now that's the actual you be, too, when you're looking at just the overall relative finish of the 80 p quarterback to.
00:13:28
Historically, it says it's a really safe bet.
00:13:32
All right, all right, Steve, what about the 80 p Q b three? Well, last season, that was none other than Mr Aaron Rodgers.
00:13:43
And you know what, going at the 508 in 2019? That was, I swear that's as cheap as a draft prices I have seen on Rogers.
00:13:51
It's got to be like a decade, maybe even Mawr, probably when he first started as a starter or something like that.
00:13:58
But despite the Heat draft price, people that got him at the five away, I'm sure, were heavily frustrated with Rogers last season.
00:14:07
He did finish Q B 11 but I mean, guys, and I think it was against Oakland, Kansas City in New York, you had 12 of his 26 TDs on the season, so it's like in three games was his half of his fantasy production.
00:14:20
So he was a frustrating player and it showed with It's finished now that the Q B three spot going back six years.
00:14:28
We've also seen finishes of Q B 13 Q p nine Q B 12 35 and actually, I earn Rogers.
00:14:38
Ah, he, um book.
00:14:44
Gosh, what you guys call out when you have bookends? There we go.
00:14:48
There you go. Come the money.
00:14:50
It fits this.
00:14:52
Aaron Rodgers bookends the study because he is a Q B two back in 2014.
00:14:59
So, you know, overall, six year averaged 80 p is for 10 Still very expensive him as 1/4 round pick.
00:15:06
Ah, lot of other positions of need at that point in your draft and the overall average finishes Q B 14.
00:15:13
So not so great.
00:15:15
And of course, there was only one instance in six years where you know somebody matter exceeded their draft position.
00:15:22
Yeah, that's that's not as great.
00:15:24
We're falling back to the Q B one level here, you know, only 17% of the time did your Q B theme three and drafts finish in the top six at the position overall at season's end and 67% of the time you got a Q B 12 or better out of that three spot for quarterback.
00:15:43
So not great now.
00:15:46
Like you said, the price is better at the fourth round.
00:15:49
But, like Ben just said with the Q B two's, Typically that person's being drafted in the eighth round and you're you're drafting a Q B two in the second round.
00:15:58
I'd much rather get somebody with that kind of volatility much later.
00:16:02
So again, prices everything this year.
00:16:06
The third the third drafted quarterback in draft so far is to Sean Watson once again going at the 408 mark.
00:16:19
Very interesting.
00:16:20
And when you look at it from the opposite perspective where the actual Q B three finishers over the past six season were drafted, they were drafted on average at the 809 spot as the 80 p q b 11.
00:16:34
So when you take in the information that you're only getting a positive, our allies 17% of the time you're paying on average of 4 10 price and getting Q B 14 production as a result, and you only even have top six upside 17% of time.
00:16:49
I'm gonna go ahead and wait several rounds later into the 80 p q B 11 to 13 range and give myself a much better chance at a much cheaper price to get the top and Judy production that you're targeting in the first place.
00:17:02
Hey, so sorry.
00:17:03
Visit the same old song real quick, 25% through.
00:17:07
We've gone through the top three spots, and really only one of them so far is really worth their price.
00:17:13
I mean, you're it's a dark throw right now.
00:17:15
We're back in 33% for the top three drafted quarterbacks and draft so far.
00:17:20
I hope it gets better all the time.
00:17:23
The old adage is that you if you want to win championships and fantasy, you gotta wait on quarterback.
00:17:28
It is.
00:17:29
That's why we do these studies toe bear out whether or not those things were true and so far like you said through the top three, it holds pretty well.
00:17:37
So, Steve, once it look like as we round out into the top four of the 80 p q B's over the last six years, Yes, so you know, I just want to say this because I'm trying to avoid even talking about this before, but your guys his point, though.
00:17:55
You know, I think there's a lot of people out there.
00:17:57
They're like, you know, hey, you wait on quarterback because of you know, the other positions that are harder to replace that are valuable and I totally understand that.
00:18:04
But I do think there's still a lot of people out there that do believe.
00:18:08
Hey, this guy's elite, He'll give me elite production.
00:18:11
I'm gonna score Tana points of this quarterback.
00:18:13
I'll get an advantage.
00:18:14
I can more easily and accurately pick a top end quarterback.
00:18:18
And that's the study kind of shows is like I'm sorry, but that hit rates on quarterbacks.
00:18:24
It's such a deep in volatile position that like and luck, do you have that? So it's just another reason to wait on quarterback.
00:18:30
And could we just get the Q B five? Okay, come on, just say it, All right.
00:18:36
So if it pains me to say on multiple levels but the 80 p Q before in 2019 with Baker Mayfield going at the six of three on average? Um, you two Q B 19 finish.
00:18:51
So not too hot of definitely one of bigger disappointments in 2019.
00:18:56
Obviously, we remember the Browns were steamrolling in the latter part of 2018.
00:19:01
They add Odo, back of Junior Sky's the limit.
00:19:05
Uh, treetops.
00:19:09
Eso keeping 19 finish and we'll go ahead and work 2018 down from 2014.
00:19:15
We've seen the other finishes.
00:19:17
Its Q B A Q B 15 Q B five Q B six and q B 15.
00:19:23
So coming out of that 80 e q B four spot, you know we have a six year average of ah, 509 draft price, so it was still pretty steep.
00:19:31
You got a lot of other starting positions to fill out there and an average finish of Q B 11.
00:19:38
Yeah, you know, I understand that quarterbacks are your highest fantasy scorers moat more often than not.
00:19:43
But like you said, Q B four so far, a 0% positive return on your investment and it doesn't get any better when you look at how they finish either in the top six or to top 12 of the position.
00:19:57
Onley 33% of the time does the Q B four finish in the top six overall.
00:20:03
The position at the end of the season and Onley 50% of the time.
00:20:08
Are you even getting a Q B one overall? Onley 50% of time is a Q before finishing in the top 12 at the position.
00:20:16
I mean, that's a 50 50.
00:20:18
It doesn't get any more of a dark throw than that.
00:20:20
And you're investing, you know, high end draft capital where you really need to hit on picks.
00:20:28
Yeah.
00:20:29
So who's the real world example that that applies to coming up? Yeah, this one's gonna be interesting this year.
00:20:34
Right now, Going at the 5 10 mark.
00:20:37
I'm sorry at the 502 mark.
00:20:40
Is Russell Wilson Very interesting? Yeah.
00:20:46
Wilson.
00:20:47
Yeah.
00:20:48
I mean a somebody who traded for Russell Wilson down the stretch last season.
00:20:52
I hope that he finds himself in a different 80 p Q B spot.
00:20:56
Get tested right? He's right.
00:20:58
So you can have a little bit better chances at success this year because when you look at it from the opposite perspective, this far is where the actual Q B fours have finished over the last six year.
00:21:10
Their average price tag is the 806 around 80 p q B 13.
00:21:15
So again it we're drilling home the same concept where 0% of the time are you getting a positive return on your investment 50% of the time you're getting a quarterback that you can't even start.
00:21:29
That sounds like a streamer to me.
00:21:31
Not like a quarterback that she wants to use.
00:21:33
Bibeau nine Equity on All right, So when you're telling me that on average, when you're getting the actual que before production way later, three rounds later on average, there's just no reason to try to pull the trigger on a quarterback.
00:21:49
So Steve does.
00:21:50
It doesn't change at all for 80 p q b five.
00:21:53
Or is this just how it's gonna be from now? Uh, well, by and large, that is how it's gonna be.
00:21:59
But that Q B 5 80 p spot.
00:22:02
Uh, it's a little surprising, actually was.
00:22:06
So I was putting together the study.
00:22:08
I did kind of expected, you know, it just to be like I'm sure it's gonna be until we start getting some of these later spots where the our allies gonna be a little bit better.
00:22:17
We're going to start seeing like a you know a little bit better value on some of these guys.
00:22:21
And, um, it does look decent out this position now.
00:22:23
Last season, it was Matt Ryan, Good old Matty ice good old, reliable going at the same time. Nine.
00:22:29
Ah finishes Q B nine Pretty, you know, you solid.
00:22:33
He actually missed his first start of his career, I believe, last season, but still finished with Q B nine production now 2018 through 14.
00:22:41
We've also seen finishes out of the spot of Q B seven Q b one Q B three Q B 22 in q B one.
00:22:51
Hey, so, yeah, I was, ah, pretty surprised as to see that.
00:22:55
So not only did 50% of the time you actually got, like a positive are oi on your investment, but we had three, you know, rather elite finishes in an overall, you know, six year average draft price of a 603 in a Q B seven finish.
00:23:11
Not not that bad.
00:23:12
Hey, we found a sweet spot here in the sixth round with the Q B five overall.
00:23:17
I like it 50% of the time they're finishing Q B six or better.
00:23:23
83% of the time they're finishing Q B 12 or better.
00:23:26
I like those odds a lot better than what we've seen so far with the Q B five in drafts and this season, the current Q B five talk about another interesting one going at the 5 10 mark is Kyler Murray.
00:23:44
Wow, look out! Hey, you know what? That lines up perfect perfectly for me and my perception of Kyler Murray's outlook this season.
00:23:54
Second year in that offense locked down Kenyan Drake as the definite starter.
00:23:59
The running back position.
00:24:00
And don't forget they brought in DeAndre Hopkins.
00:24:02
Yeah, so that is a very interesting one when you when you look at it from the opposite side, where have the actual Q B five finishers been drafted over each of the last six seasons? On average, you're actually seeing them as the 80 p q B six.
00:24:18
So now we're starting to really a C a little bit more balance of draft price and production, and when you look at the fact that a you're getting a positive ah, rely on your investment 50% of the time on average at the 603 spot.
00:24:32
That's a very reasonable price in a very nice return rate.
00:24:35
And then when you look at the top 6% you get that half the time and then overwhelmingly, 83% of the time, you've gotta start herbal quarterback.
00:24:43
That sounds like you've got your locked and loaded starting quarterback for me all season, so I think we have found a sweet spot.
00:24:50
So are 80 p.
00:24:51
Q b five and 80 p.
00:24:53
Q B five.
00:24:54
Get your official foresight.
00:24:55
Blessing.
00:24:56
Steve doesn't continue on it.
00:24:57
80 p Q b six does not.
00:25:04
Uh, so for that, no gonna be able to stay hot like that.
00:25:10
So Drew Brees was our 80 p q b six in 2019 and you know his Q B 24 finish coming out of the 702 spot is kind of interesting in the fact that he's still through 27 touchdowns and essentially 10 games because, you know, he missed five stars, but he I think Week two when he left against what? San Francisco.
00:25:32
I think it was very early in the contest, but still you weren't happy if you spent the 702 on breeze because you were missing him for nearly half your fantasy season, right? So, you know, that's definitely a miss right there.
00:25:47
Working our way back to 2014.
00:25:49
We've also seen finishes of out of this Q B six spot of Q B 10-Q B 19 Q B 19 1 shining example.
00:25:57
Thank you, Tom Brady, quarterback to and then quarterback A.
00:26:01
So you know, on a six year average where you're spending the 609 so still very, you know, very valuable draft capital.
00:26:07
We're seeing an overall finish of Q B 14 on average and only one instance one instance in six years where you know, you were happy with the pick that you made coming out of the q B six spot.
00:26:20
And I'm sure if you're listening, you kind of hear some of those numbers.
00:26:22
And you think, Okay, you know, freak injury.
00:26:25
You can't really take that into account.
00:26:27
But if you look at the last six years, they're not.
00:26:29
All those bad performances aren't all injuries.
00:26:32
You had breeze who have was injured, but you have a couple other that were just disappointing seasons.
00:26:38
So that is something that you certainly can factor in.
00:26:41
So when we look at how they finished Q one through 12 the Q B six only finished in the top 6 17% of the time over the last six years.
00:26:52
The Q B six only finished as in the top 12 as a star doble quarterback on Lee half the time 50% of the time.
00:27:01
Not a great return.
00:27:03
So again, who is that heading into the 2020 season at the 606 mark? Somebody we just talked a little bit about Aaron Rodgers.
00:27:14
Interesting.
00:27:16
Lots of drama there in Green Bay.
00:27:17
Doesn't I was going to say, Doesn't that line up with drama that they've got going on and cream pay between a Rajan That front off alleging staff? Oh, man, about a coin.
00:27:30
You know, another spot where, like Steve said, you're on average of talking about the 609 That's not chump change by any means and and when you look at it from the opposite perspective, the actual Q B six finishers over the last six years were drafted on average at the 9 12 spot as the 80 p q B 13 reached another point in the draft where you're our allies. 17%.
00:27:55
You're talking about another streamer type guy when it comes to usability percentages on Lee being herbal 50% of the time again, that is not mash up with that 609 draft equity.
00:28:06
So this is another spot that just the data shows that you can wait.
00:28:10
No, the Q B seven I want.
00:28:13
Let's let's reset.
00:28:14
We're halfway through.
00:28:16
And if you take a look at this, even if you're in a super Flex league and you're paying this time this type of half top or top of the draft for a quarterback and you're only getting returns as a start herbal quarterback 50% of the time when you're going in to get your second Q B I mean, you're really have it puts the pressure on you gotta hit that pick, and everything that I'm hearing so far from Steed and Ben's data is quarterbacks are being drafted at the top end of drafts between Rounds two and Round six, and yet the best performers are being waited on until around seven through nine.
00:28:52
So if that's not a message to everybody listening, I don't know what is now.
00:28:58
Is there better value in the second half of the drafts for quarterbacks taken? We shall find out Steve O.
00:29:06
Let's kick it off with Q B seven, All right? And that's that's gonna get your blood pressure up a little bit, Shea, Because that would be Mr Carson Wentz of the Philippine.
00:29:16
Ah, going at the 703 last season.
00:29:21
Now he finished q b 10.
00:29:23
Not terrible, you know, finishing that Q B one range.
00:29:26
But you know, there are a lot of people on that Eagles bandwagon.
00:29:30
Last season, heading into the year you had, you know, supposedly all Sean Jeffries was getting healthy, supposedly to Sean Jackson eyes.
00:29:37
I see what you dio I stretch sorry, you know, came back to Philly and they were supposed to be a pretty explosive offense.
00:29:45
And, you know, I think it's a shame that you'd probably agree to have a Q B 10 fancy finish out of wince when he actually was healthy and played all season.
00:29:54
So yeah, yeah, but I don't Greste.
00:29:58
So, yeah, out of that Q B seven spot going back to 2014 we've seen a Q B 12 Q b 18 Q B 13 Q B three and q B seven eso an overall cost over the last six years.
00:30:13
A 702 is usually what's gonna take and, ah q B 11 finish overall and 1/3 33% of the time.
00:30:22
You got no pretty nice are oi out of that pick? Well, you know, I hear some of those numbers I hear q b three.
00:30:30
I hear q b seven, and that sounds great.
00:30:32
But if we're talking about trends, it's certainly trending the wrong way.
00:30:35
Because the last four years, the best finish out of the Q B seven and drafts is Q B 10 overall and the other three times there.
00:30:44
They're either barely or not even in the top 12 at the position on Lee 17% of the time in the last six years do they finish in the top six, giving you a positive return on investment and 67% of the time they do finish as a start herbal quarterback in 12 team leagues.
00:31:02
So that's nice, but you're also bacon on 33% of the time.
00:31:06
You're not even getting a start.
00:31:07
Herbal quarterback in that Q B seven spot now heading into the 2020 season.
00:31:12
The Q B seven going in the back end of the sixth round with the 11th pick is Dak Prescott.
00:31:21
Man.
00:31:22
Does he have a tunnel Weapons over there in Dallas? I e.
00:31:27
Just cannot wait to see what happens with this contract if, uh, if he's all happy going into the season or if he is the one thing that is going to kind of put a rope bench in everything down there.
00:31:39
So you know, I got to get that guy paid so he could be tossing it around all those weapons that you drafted for him.
00:31:45
When you look at the flip side of this study, the actual Q B seven on average, are being drafted as the 80 p q B nines over the last six season at the 709 spot.
00:31:55
So we're getting to the point where you know the 80 p average is starting to really line up with the actual Q B finishers 80 p averages.
00:32:03
And this is another situation just for me personally, where you might look at the R A Y percentage of 33%.
00:32:10
You might look at the trends over the last four years and think that it's not that good of a spot to get a quarterback.
00:32:17
But when you're talking about the point of the seventh round and you're getting a star notable quarterback 2/3 of the time, it gets to the point where, depending on the way you've structured your roster and depending on who that quarterback 80 p quarterback seven is, it might be a time to start looking at picking your spots just because you know you're on the right side of a start.
00:32:38
Herbal quarterback, a 50 50 is really a streamer guy.
00:32:41
Anything more than that is kind of getting towards like that back in Q B one start, herbal type of guy.
00:32:46
So, you know, at this point I would still air on the side of caution, probably, and just wait on my quarterback.
00:32:52
But it's not the worst spot in the world if you are somebody that's historically like J and in a super rushed to get your quarterback in drafts.
00:33:00
Yeah, great good segment for the next one, though.
00:33:03
I wonder how ah how Q B eight fared overall and Yeah, really quick.
00:33:08
Before we get to that, I'm sure you guys would agree.
00:33:10
And I have to think the 80 p is going to change dramatically.
00:33:14
But so Dak Prescott is going after Aaron Rodgers right now, right? Is that what it was? 86 for everyone right now is absolutely right.
00:33:26
Yeah, that's a lot of films. Gold.
00:33:28
There's a lot of fools gold in these 80 piece right now.
00:33:30
We call them the quote way too early 80 piece for a reason, because there's only a couple of knuckleheads like us out there are actually paying it 80 pieces stuff at this time of the year.
00:33:42
But I remember last year there were so many guys that we were super excited about what their price tag and when.
00:33:47
Every episode as we got closer to the season, we just saw their price go up and up and up and up.
00:33:52
And like he said, Steve, I totally expect the same thing for Dad.
00:33:55
I know, I know, Dak.
00:33:56
Today, Raj would both love to have Marqise Goodwin on their team.
00:33:59
Though that was really over.
00:34:02
Not everybody can be is lucky is Carson. Thanks.
00:34:05
I know what can you dio, man? All right, So before we hit this die aggression, Steve was about to get started on 80 p.
00:34:13
Q b eight and that would be none other than Jared Goff.
00:34:18
Last season Hey was drafted at the 709 coming off of, you know? Yeah, definitely a fantasy relevant.
00:34:24
2018 season finished is Key.
00:34:27
Be 15.
00:34:28
And some of that was because he simply did not find the end zone very much.
00:34:33
Last season I was checking out a stats and I'm like, Oh, dude threw for over 4600 yards but Yikes! 22 touchdowns on 626 pass attempts like talk about efficient.
00:34:46
Um, and that's ultimately why he finished outside of that QB one range, it could be 15 now working back toe 2014 we've seen out of this Q B eight spot, Q B 2123 2019 goal and throw up a little in my own mouth.
00:35:04
Yeah, I'm sorry.
00:35:05
It's Nick Foles q B 29 boom, Yeah, not not a single one of these guys has come close to returning on their investment by a long shot and you know, with an overall average draft cost of the seven away, you know you could still be finishing out your starting Ross Shuras point.
00:35:23
Sure, that's I mean that that's a big, big miss right there.
00:35:27
No, no, It's very interesting, too, because Ben's telling me in his ****ysis that the top scoring quarterbacks can be had in the seventh round.
00:35:36
And then you're telling me currently, the Q B seven over the last six years is taken in the seventh round and they're giving you a 0% chance of having a start.
00:35:47
Herbal quarter packets.
00:35:48
Just it's mind boggling.
00:35:50
We had a sweet spot for sure, a sweet spot of not good at the Q B. A position.
00:35:57
Now, who is that heading into the 2020 season Q B eight going at the seventh pick of the seventh round is Carson wins.
00:36:08
Don't touch him.
00:36:11
Awesome.
00:36:12
Good thing they drafted a lot of, you know, top end talent at receiver.
00:36:16
They did get a lot of receivers.
00:36:19
I'm just not sure they're going to be great.
00:36:21
We'll see, though, worry like we said, these 80 piece we're gonna change.
00:36:25
Your guy will be in a enough their spot that won't turn, You know, it would have been great.
00:36:28
Justin Jefferson, Whatever. Move on.
00:36:32
I mean, like we said 0% our ally on this pic 0% of the time you're getting a start.
00:36:39
Herbal quarterback Whoever is the q B eight in your draft it whoever is the 80 p. Q b A in your draft.
00:36:45
Just avoid them like the plague, no matter what their name is, because over the last six years you're you're able to get actual Q B eight production on average, two rounds later at the 901 with with an 80 p Q B rank of around Q B 15.
00:37:01
So even if you feel like you wake you be eight.
00:37:05
Even if you feel like you waited, wait a little bit more exactly like you held out long enough, just hold out a little bit longer.
00:37:13
Stack that bench with a couple of quality upside running backs your wide receivers that have the potential to blow up a and then address your quarterback in a couple more rounds.
00:37:22
So, Steve, we're running out of positions.
00:37:25
We need a couple more in the positive tally.
00:37:28
Does it start with a P Q B nine.
00:37:32
Yeah, this Cuban I spot.
00:37:34
Hey, does those are, you know, trend positively.
00:37:38
And it starts out last season with Russell Wilson, who was being drafting this Cuban, a spot with an average of draft costs at the 804 he finished Q B five.
00:37:49
Now I know it was one of the most frustrating Q B five finishes of all time, and that's just the offense that he stuck in, right.
00:37:56
I mean, sometimes he carries that team, puts a week winning performances, and then other times they were on the ball 45 times.
00:38:02
What can you dio? But he did finish TV five.
00:38:05
And if you're taking him with the 804 you, you have to be happy with that.
00:38:11
Sure, now 2018.
00:38:14
We saw a lot of Q B nine spot Q B six finish.
00:38:17
A Q B six finish after that should be 11.
00:38:21
Tony Romo Q B 40.
00:38:23
I believe that was the end of his career and then Q B 13 back in 2014 But so overall, when you look at a six year average, you know you're looking at an early eighth round pick of the 801 but an average finish of Q B 14.
00:38:38
And that's what that Q B 40 finish that Romo had in half the time.
00:38:43
You're getting a positive, our ally out of that pick, maybe nine position, Steve.
00:38:48
Even better than that half the time you're getting a top six quarterback with that Q B nine spots.
00:38:55
So you're getting a great return on your investment.
00:38:58
And even better, 67% of the time.
00:39:01
You're getting a solid starting Q B and 12 team formats.
00:39:06
You're getting a Q B 12 or better 67% of the time out of the Q B nine spot going in that spot heading into the 2020 season, right now in a teepee early in the eighth round.
00:39:19
Is Josh Allen my guy of it? Yeah, I would say I like Josh Island had into this season.
00:39:28
And when you look at the last three seasons in particular, that's when you're getting three consecutive top six Q B performances out of this 80 p Q B nine slot, and then when you look at it from the opposite perspective, you're getting actual Q B nine production.
00:39:44
You know, pretty, you know another do rounds after this point around the 10 06 spot with an 80 p rank of Q B 16.
00:39:52
But I'll say this both the 80 p q B nine and the actual Q B nines over the last six years.
00:39:58
Air Pretty Even when you consider the odds versus the price, however, here's the differentiator.
00:40:03
For me, the 80 p q B nine offers a surprising amount of top six upside with a you know, with still a pretty sustainable 2/3 of the time being a star doble quarterback.
00:40:14
So at that price, it seems worst birth, the upside potential and the relative safety net that that position seems to provide.
00:40:22
So Steve O that keep going for 80 p.
00:40:24
Q B 10? Not at all.
00:40:27
But I almost just want to call this because the worst finish we've had is also the same guy who has had the best finish that we've had it this q B 10 spot and I'll give it away by saying it was Cam Newton.
00:40:42
Last season that was being drafted at the A 10 is Q B 10 in drafts and Ah, you know, finish Q B 50.
00:40:49
I believe I saw that he scored less than 18 total fancy points because he only played in two games and did not account for any kind of touchdown.
00:40:56
So, you know, obviously had a tough, tough goal of it last year.
00:41:01
And, you know, working our way back to 2014 we have seen Q B 39 Cam Newton, Q B three Q B 21 Q B 24 Q B 12 you know.
00:41:14
So overall, over six year average, the cost of that positions Bennett the 806 you know, not heavily expensive, but you know, you do want to get somebody who you would want to keep on your roster beyond the 1st 3 weeks because I average quarterback finishes 25.
00:41:32
And, like I said, there was only that one instance where if you reached on, if you have the courage to take Cam Newton in 2017 Q B 10 he did give you a really nice elite Q B two refinished.
00:41:43
But outside of that, yeah, we've fallen off the wagon.
00:41:47
Let's see if with the Q B 10 spot, you're getting a top six quarterback only 17% of the time, you're only getting a only 34% of the time.
00:41:59
Are you getting a star Doble quarterback, a top 12 quarterback in that Q B 10 spots? So not the sweet spot we're looking for and going in that spot heading into the 2020 season at the 809 say it isn't so.
00:42:13
Matt Ryan.
00:42:14
No, come on, man, that's a That's gonna move.
00:42:18
He's moving up.
00:42:19
Its for sure moving up like you ve nine sweet spot.
00:42:24
They are gonna be a nice year for Matty Ice.
00:42:26
The actual Q B 10 performers over the last six years were actually drafted on average at the 902 spot with an 80 p rank of Q B 11.
00:42:36
So right around the spot that we're talking about so you're getting nitty gritty at this point.
00:42:40
But 80 p Q.
00:42:42
B 10 offers just a 33% chance to get a top 12 Q B.
00:42:47
At this point in the draft, where it's you're still valuable bears out there with such low upside potential.
00:42:53
It's just the spot where you need to stack that bench and keep waiting.
00:42:56
Steve, we've got two left eye.
00:42:59
We need at least one good 80 p quarterback performance over the last six years to be at a 50 50% on this podcast tonight.
00:43:07
So how did the 80 p q B 11 fair? You know, when I went through this study, this was actually my favorite spot, that I saw all of all of them.
00:43:16
And it's not because it's a good spot.
00:43:18
It just to meet proves the volatility of fantasy quarterbacks and why you're just better suited toe weight.
00:43:26
That way you don't have a ton of draft capital and a guy you spend a lot on that you just you that way, you know, you're just not willing to let go That guy spend so much draft capital.
00:43:36
At least if you take these guys late and you miss, cause you're probably gonna miss on a lot of these quarterbacks a cut bait and pick up a guy who is performing off the waiver wire, What not But yeah, out of this spot.
00:43:48
Lamar Jackson was drafted last season.
00:43:50
Obviously, what can you even say about a quarterback who throws for 36 touchdowns? and Russia's also for 200 yards.
00:43:58
I mean, ridiculous.
00:43:59
He won so many titles for people because he got drafted this late, however, and I should say he was, on average, drafted of the 902 However, the rest of this the five years prior is just horrific.
00:44:15
I mean, quarterback 20 Andrew Luck didn't play in 2017.
00:44:18
Quarterback 17 quarterback, 18 16.
00:44:22
So outside of Lamar Jackson, there really hasn't been any positivity out of the quarterback 11 slot.
00:44:28
And, like I said, I found that interesting.
00:44:31
Just because it's it's like you have possibly the greatest fancy performance of all time out.
00:44:36
Of course, you could have return on investment over the last six years.
00:44:40
Pretty gross.
00:44:41
Like I said now in that spot in 2012 right now, going in midway through the ninth round with the fifth pick is Kirk Cousins.
00:44:53
I kind of get it.
00:44:55
I don't flame me there.
00:44:58
80 p Q.
00:44:59
B 11 somehow offers even less likelihood that you'll land a usable Q B than 80 p.
00:45:05
Q B 10.
00:45:06
So it has somehow gotten were you've hit a point in the draft reminders.
00:45:10
Well, keep waiting and throw a cheaper dart later on because the actual Q B Elevens over the past six years, our draft and on average about around later at the 9 12 spot with an 80 p rank of Q B 14.
00:45:24
So Steve, we've got the last Oh, the love that were covered tonight.
00:45:29
Tell me that we're gonna finish strong.
00:45:31
How did the 80 p q B 12 fair over the last six seasons? So, yeah, guys, the Q B 12 spot seems to be the absolute sweet spot on draft, so it's almost like, hey, wait to draft the quarterback, literally.
00:45:45
Wait till the last starting quarterback, the ADP 12 and you'll get somebody a two very least solid and return.
00:45:52
And last year, our q B 12 80 p was Jamis Winston.
00:45:56
The 909 finishes to you before Mr 30 30 himself.
00:46:02
I know he's a guy that was really hard to want to start week in and week out because you didn't know is Jamie's gonna go out, throw three picks in the first quarter and get pulled.
00:46:10
And sometimes he did throw three picks in the first quarter, but he'd still just keep chucking it all the way to a key before finish.
00:46:17
Now we're gonna way back to 2014.
00:46:20
We've seen this spot finish a Q B 11 Q B seven Q B eight Q B 12 Q B 10 with an over all average of within six years of Q B nine and a cost at the 906 And obviously, based on this finishes, I just told you that's 100% of the time in the past six years.
00:46:38
That quarterback coming out of that 12 spot has given you a positive are oi, which is which is awesome.
00:46:45
I no fan of the show.
00:46:46
Travis is watching this, and he hears us say there's a sweet spot in that sweet spot.
00:46:51
Last year was Jamis Winston.
00:46:53
I know he's getting a kick out of that, and I can't believe it.
00:46:55
But that spot, I tell you, we found too sweet spots in the top 12 quarterbacks taken and drafts.
00:47:03
That's Q B two and Q B 12 Q B 12 17% of time is giving you a top six quarterback at the end of the season, and 100% of the time they are finishing in the top 12 100% of time.
00:47:18
They're giving you a legit solid starting quarterback come season end. That is phenomenal.
00:47:24
So who is that heading into 2020? That is none other going in the with.
00:47:30
The sixth pick of the ninth round is Jimmy G.
00:47:34
Whoa, that's interesting.
00:47:37
That definitely gonna change Jimmy.
00:47:40
Jeez, Ability to be a study.
00:47:42
You be Ah ah.
00:47:44
This is the first and only time on this podcast episode tonight that we simultaneously see a 100% r A y and a 100% usability, right? Even that nice 80 p q b two had that lower Arli compared to the very nice usability.
00:48:04
So when you look at that, that 80 p Q B to price tag, on average is the 3 11 The 80 p q B 12 price tag, on average, is the 906 and you're getting on average Q B nine production, and every once in a while you get top six passion 0% bus straight after more than the last decade of that love.
00:48:28
So I mean, we have found we have found six spots in this draft where it appears to be at least a favorable roll of the dice to try to target a quarterback in the top 12 Q B or top 12 80 p.
00:48:44
Q. B's in a given draft.
00:48:46
But by and large, man, you wanna wait on a quarterback because that means six of the time it goes the other way.
00:48:52
And you're talking about precious draft equity that can be spent on, you know, running back wide receivers, tight ends.
00:48:59
And you can just wait on that quarterback and even stream them throughout the season if you have to. You so moral.
00:49:05
The moral of the story is you can pick your spots for the right guy, by and large is going to serve you much better.
00:49:11
Toe Wait. Yep.
00:49:12
Well, hey, guys, we did it First preview episode for the 2020 season underway.
00:49:18
Our reliability study is under way.
00:49:21
We've got a few more episodes coming up done.
00:49:24
Do you want to fill everybody in absolutely over the next three weeks, we're going to do look at pretty much the same thing for every other position.
00:49:33
Next week.
00:49:34
It's the running backs.
00:49:35
The week after that, it's the wide receivers and following up, round out.
00:49:38
This series is going to be the tight ends, man.
00:49:41
It's fun.
00:49:42
It's great having Steve back on.
00:49:44
Steve's gonna be back on with us for the rest of these Siri's.
00:49:47
Steve, you got anything else you want to add before we headed out tonight? Uh, I mean, not necessarily.
00:49:53
Guys just again want to say thanks.
00:49:55
It was nice to get in the talks in fantasy, football always is so lonely, you know, unfortunately, now until next week, I have toe go back to reality.
00:50:05
But no, the next three weeks will be a lot of fun doing the same thing with the other positions.
00:50:11
I think it'll, you know, give us our listeners kind of a good perspective on, you know, like the odds and hit rate on these different positions.
00:50:20
And I think it's gonna show it through why, you know, when we reflect on what we just talked about these quarterbacks, it's like, you know, I can live with myself missing in the second or third round on a running back or wide receiver, but it's hard to want to live with yourself if you if you throw away one of those picks on a quarterback, given how very difficult it is to actually get, like the return on investment considering draft capital.
00:50:44
So it's gonna be a lot of fun.
00:50:45
It's gonna be interesting.
00:50:47
You guys, listen, there's no better way to build your base heading into draft season than these studies.
00:50:55
It just gives you such a clear picture come draft time of what your strategy should be.
00:51:01
And then when we get into the actual team in division previews, then you could start pinpointing the guys You want a target.
00:51:07
So we got to start somewhere, and these episodes air it absolutely.
00:51:12
And over the next several weeks, Steve's going to supplement all this information in the form of a written blog's.
00:51:17
So that's gonna be on our force, an encyclopedia tab at fantasy foresight dot com.
00:51:24
And so whether you whether you like toe get your information through a podcast or through wit narrative form, we've got it all a fantasy foresight.
00:51:32
It's great to be back with you guys.
00:51:34
You know, I I love this series every year.
00:51:38
It helps prepare you for your draft.
00:51:39
So much put so many things in so many healthy concepts into perspective and in your mind heading into the season.
00:51:45
And next week, we have got the all important running backs.
00:51:48
Can't wait.
00:51:59
Welcome, everyone to fantasy Foresight, The podcast where your host and co founders of fantasy foresight dot com coming to you from the Rambo fixture Company studios.
00:52:09
I'm Ben and I'm Jay ready to get rolling J. You know it.
00:52:13
Let's do this right, let's go.
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