Good morning, everyone.
We're gonna be talking about some XFL so that we've got two games on the slate for this afternoon.
First things first, I'm gonna share the stream on Twitter.
Give me one moment while I take care of that feeling a little a lot better to that, uh, looking forward to breaking down to the plate if they weren't pretty welfare.
The model model push on the first game with the plus seven on Tampa Bay on Ben Model Recommended play was the renegade.
Um, and second, get in there.
Unfortunately, I played dragons money, line of thought.
There's little value on that for a little half units.
I did not profit yesterday, but if they have the model recommended place I worked out in the favor of those who followed it.
Um, give me one minute here.
Need to post it on the breakdown shorter.
Um, now you quit a few housekeeping notes and we'll get into today late.
Um, this your first time tuning in, I'll talk through my model.
Um, we'll talk through my projected lines for the game.
Um, I do have plays on the totals as well as, um, against spreads out.
We got a lot of opportunities.
I see a lot of value on the board with these two games, so I'll be sure to give out those.
Give me one moment.
Treat this out from the breakdown.
Go ahead and follow me on Twitter at Gordon von Denham followed the breakdown sport at the underscore breakdown Brk.
W n dresses spelled here, um, in my, um the title of my stream going ahead and getting long down here.
Welcome in. Thank you. Those two are joining.
I'm just treating us out my stream real quick, and then we'll go ahead and break down the plate.
All right, So we got, uh, today for games.
Thank you for your patience.
For those who are joining him games with the New York Guardian traveling to take on the battle Hawk on.
Then we have the DC defenders at the L A. Wildcat.
Um, I believe this is the home opener for the battle Hawks.
I believe that l A played at home.
That's not the first game.
Know it, But this is the first game for the battle.
Hawkins at home, so there's a lot of anticipation that first game.
But guardians that battle Hawkes is 3 p.m. Eastern.
A little bit later in the evening at 6 p.m.
Eastern Wind, the defenders travel to sandals to take on the Wildcats current line For these games, these lines were taken from pinnacle of the market making sports book.
I think it's best to use their lines.
Thanks for the follow I got when I hadn't followed you back.
Um, for I would try and use market making line.
So Pinnacle, Chris, um, even bookmaker and then shop around for your odds Whatever book you choose to use, whether you're fortunate to live in a state that has legal, sports loving or if you do use online sportsbook, be sure to shop around five best numbers.
Um, birth game is the Battle Hawks minus Ted So Battle Doctor, 10 point favorites at home, taking on the Guardians second game.
We have the Wildcats as eight and 1/2 point underdogs to the D C defenders.
Um, both these lines are off the spread their off.
From what my model has projected, it's all go ahead and run through those.
We'll start with the first game, the first game.
We have the Guardians and the battle Hawks.
I have that game lined at a six point spread.
I think that we're just being gross overreaction toe.
The Guardian last week, um, the line opened.
I believe that seven or seven and 1/2 and I spent moved up three points.
You're giving me three points? Um, on it spread after the opener, I will absolutely hit that number.
So from a value standpoint of just getting a for a free touch, they'll go.
Um, I really like that.
But also, I just don't think that this is as by the game as the spread would say, um, getting into a little bit more specifically at how I rate these teams, how I arrived at my projections.
Right now I have the battle hawk projected to be a 500 win team are, uh so they have them production to go five and five.
I have the guardians as actually my work.
A second worst team in the league.
Um, I have them at the 31 team, so I don't think too highly of the Guardians I just don't think that at home, um, there.
I just don't think this early in their reason for them to be a 10 point underdog after one bad game.
Um, we do have from on the guardian side with injuries, you have the starting right guard out in early.
Which is this being down starting, often two linemen is going to take a toll on your offense.
Seeing that the Guardians put up a whopping zero points last week, that does concern me.
So that is a one point hit on their spread.
So if I had thought there, if they were completely healthy Team, I actually have this game projected at a five point spread.
Um, I do have the Guardians getting a slight manual bump, um, to their power ratings just because I don't think that they were as poor as their statistics and the scoreboard read last week.
Whereas on the other hand, I think Louis, because everyone came into the season so pessimistic about the battle hawk, I actually have given them a to win bump because I think that they are a stronger team, um, than what they showed coming into this season.
I think that they had a great, um game Week one without upset over the renegades.
And then last week, they almost complete a comeback against the Roughnecks.
Do I think the Roughnecks Air Roughnecks in D.
C are probably the two best teams in the league? So that's why I had both those two teams raided.
Um, I have ST Louis has a 51 team.
I have the Guardians as a 31 team.
Um, looking at the staff that kind of go into my model predictions here.
Thanks for joining the broadcast.
We're talking some excess files.
I'm going through the first game on Slate right now, um, talking about the battle hawks and the guardian skin.
So the battle hawk have not put up a ton of points here.
They had scored 39 points through the 1st 2 weeks.
Guardian scored 23 in the first week of The Guardian showed they can score points just last week with that against the D C defenders defense, um, they could not muster is like Matt McGloin looks absolutely lost up there.
They did not look good as a team.
That is certainly something to be concerned about.
They have the ball a lot.
Last week, they only controlled the ball for 37% of the game.
Um, if you want, if you expect the Guardians to do well, they're going to need to hold onto the ball for a little bit longer than that.
Pulling the ball 37% of the time is a recipe for failure.
It's very hard to win a game football if you can't hold the ball closer to 50% of the time.
On the other side of things, the battle Hawks have been ball Hawks, ball, hogs.
Even they have been holding the ball for approximately 60% of both their 1st 2 games.
And because they run a con of place last week, the Battle Hawk Train 83 plays on offense.
They ran an extremely efficient.
They were in the fastest paced offense with one offense to play every 27 seconds left week, whereas the Guardians are one of the slower teams.
Week one, the guardians for the absolute clothes we do, they didn't pick up the pace a little bit, but they obviously couldn't score.
If the Guardians they're gonna do well, and they do have a fairly decent defense.
They're going to need to get their defense office feels they can't allow their defense toe be on the field for 60% game.
They're gonna have to make some stops, and their offense is gonna have to lengthen their drives.
That can't be going three and out on time.
I'm looking at some other numbers that go into this model.
Um, I have that the, um, Seattle draft parasites in the same battle hawks are they score margin of one at this point.
They won their first game by six.
They lost last week by four.
The average score marching is one, whereas on the other side, the Guardians, one by 20 lost by 27.
Their average score margin is about a minus.
Appealed. Awful turnover margin.
These two teams have done well with Turn over.
Both of them have a negative turnover margin.
Um, the Guardians have lost the turnover battle to game consecutive games, whereas the battle hawks lost last week.
So that is something to look at.
The teams are gonna need to control the ball if they are going to be successful.
Gonna pull up their run half, um, splits just so I can break that down a little bit further.
Thank you very much.
Mambo number 24 for the tip.
I really appreciate that.
Um, you all right? Where are you? All right, the run path breakdown going into, ah, this week.
I can't seem to find that someone had posted on Twitter.
They gave the breakdown of play calling for each team.
Oh, here we are.
So this is the battle hawk have been very run heavy.
I think that bodes well for New York.
New York actually has a very strong secondary, but I think that with a thing like being a more run heavy team, I think that that presents an opportunity for a lower scoring game when there's a lower scoring game.
Um, I always find that there tends to be value in backing the underdog.
Obviously, where I have this game projected as a six point game, Um whereas my projections have ah guardian has, like, plus *** there.
It should be battle hawks minus six, because it is Bala Hawk, my 10.
I'm playing the guardian side getting four points of value on the Guardians and because it is a low total game total, I believe right now Penny has the line set at people.
That critical line is 40 and 1/2.
So I like to take the, um that plays well with taking Ah, underdog there.
You're getting a double digit spread on a fairly low total on the other thing that I do like in this and I'm going to play on it.
Um, you might need to shop around for this because not everywhere is offering first half.
But you could get a first half on their 20 on my bookie right now.
Um, I'm playing that because even last week, when the Guardians were flushed 27 to nothing, they still didn't allow.
There's 1 12 points in the first half.
The battle hawks because they control the time of possession and they were on the ball a lot.
I think that it's going to be a lower scoring, uh, game on their side as well.
I don't think that they will be scoring a lot in the first half, so I think that under 20 is a great debt with a lot of value.
So two plays on this first game.
My first play is Guardian plus 10.
I locked that in yesterday.
You can find that pretty much anywhere.
Um, haven't seen many numbers, are Oh, actually, up to 10 and 1/2 in some places.
I really liked that.
I will throw another after 1/2 unit on the 10 and 1/2 just because I'm getting an even better number than what I got yesterday with a plus one.
Welcome into the two, uh, people who just joined.
Thank you for joining.
We're talking some XFL.
Um, I just laid out my two plays for the first matchup today.
I have guardian plus 10 guardian of 10 and 1/2 security and plus 10 or one and 1/2.
My model has this game lined six.
So I have a four point edge on this.
Based off what? My model says I can talk to some of the numbers and data that go into my model.
Um, I also put a unit down on the first half under one H under 20.
Um, you get 20 even by twenties and 1/2 even by 19 and 1/2 I like any of those. I don't think either.
These teams are scoring, um, two touchdowns in the first half.
I think that we're probably seeing a 10 796 type of first house out.
No, I think that this is gonna be a shut up, but I think that there's some inherent value there on that low total, Uh, in the first half.
So two plays on the first game, I have under 1/2 1 half under 20.
And then I have the Guardians Plus hadn't guardians of some of the half switching over to the second game.
Second game is at 6 p.m. Eastern tonight.
Second game is DC defenders at the L A. Wildcat.
Um, these two are my number one rated, and then my were created teams that I have projected.
Right now, I have the d.
C defenders as about a seven and 1/4 when team over the course of a season where the wild kept as a two and 1/2 monty.
Um, while cats have a kind of injuries in this game, it's not that they're list missing, lost starters.
They're missing depth pieces.
They've cluster injuries multiple injuries at the same position or core like linebackers, but they also have tons of people who are banged up.
If you look at their that injury report for on the XFL website, the Wildcats have like 20 to 25 people ranging from probable out with their injury.
So that's something to take into consideration because they may not have everyone at absolute full strength.
I think going against a team like, um, the D C defenders is going to be very challenging.
Um, I do really like the DC defendant.
I think that they are one of the stronger team.
They're the strongest team in the league.
I think it's really challenging Thio, um, kind of give them a knock.
Their defense is incredibly talented.
Um, I think that their offense is talented as well, so I really like them.
Um, And while I have this game wind very close, and in most situations, I probably wouldn't be backing, um, a road dog by this much, I I'm going to be backing the DC defenders.
Might line has matched at eight and 1/2.
Um, so I'm actually looking at some first half place.
Um, you can get the d C defenders minus five and 1/2.
Um, in the first half, let me do a pinnacle.
Has I know what they Nicholas? Six.
So if you can get a five and 1/2 I really like, um, that five and 1/2 DC defenders my five and 1/2 that's available on, um, bed online.
Well, um, I love that play.
I think that the funders could be up by a touchdown, but over the course of a game, I think that eight and 1/2 is a tricky number.
There's no key numbers in the XFL where too early in the season to find numbers they're sticky.
Find numbers that the distribution are present.
That Atlanta is the score.
Margin is, um, to really determine anything, but Oh, ****.
Looks like this line moving.
Um, this game is up to nine in some places right now.
Yeah, it's up to nine.
I think the whole game that is Stay away.
I like five and 1/2.
Um, you can get five and 1/2 minus 105 on bed online.
Right now for DC defenders.
First half you get minus five and 1/2 minus 1 10 on my bookie.
Pinnacle has minus six.
If you can find the minus five and 1/2 I recommend playing that that's gonna be my recommended play.
Um, and that's what I am going to walk in right now for whole unit.
Um, because I don't think that list number moves too much office.
Some of the reasons that my model has this at eight and 1/2 was contacted from the stats on both sides.
The quickly run through recaps of yesterday's game, and I talked about some plans I have for this week for some XFL content with the breakdown.
So talk about injuries.
We talked about how I have these two teams rated.
Let's look at some statistics from the 1st 2 weeks to support or what go against either of these teams.
Defenders have toward 58 points of two weeks.
That was the second most points scored, behind only the Roughnecks.
Whereas, um, Wildcats have put up 35.
Lifted up 17 and 18 point.
They lost by 20 in the first week.
I lost seven last week.
The defenders are still undefeated.
Um, they are one of the two undefeated team.
Um, so that is good.
If you are looking at the D C defenders, um, d c defenders were able to hold the ball for a long time in their last game, held the ball for 61% of the game, about only running 65 plays, so they ran a very slow offense.
I'm just really grinding down their opponent.
Um, I think that's what they're gonna look to do again.
I think that they will do probably be fairly successful in that I'm still not trusting this l a Wildcat defense.
I'm not trusting this l A Wildcat coaching staff.
Um, especially after the bet reaction they had to fire their defensive coordinator after one week.
I think that it's still gonna take some time for them to catch a rhythm and really understand how to work with the defense is one thing that is bothering me about the XFL.
If I can get on myself box a little bit here, that they're not coaching defense is like they keep saying this on the sidelines and you hear when they're talking players is that these teams are just they're punting on defense.
They don't give a ****.
They're only worried about offense.
And if that is the case with a team like the l A wild cats who fired their defensive coordinator any semblance, um, immunity.
Continuity, I think, really goes out the window when you fire your defensive coordinator after one week.
So I will play with the better offense here that is able to control the ball.
D c is extremely run.
I think I have it here.
Look, pull this back up Last week, they're a little bit more balanced.
Last week they went 53% path and 47% run.
Um, see if I have access to the weak one number.
No, Um, whereas on the other side of things L A was extremely past l A.
I think they're going to have, um, starting quarterback Josh Johnson.
I had a cup of coffee in the NFL, had a cup of coffee in the, um yes, that he's supposed to be able to play today.
So if we see heaven, who knows what this offense? Indio.
I'm not really sure of anything about the Wildcat.
I really haven't also watched a lot of them With the way of my models built, I don't really need to do tow, watch a lot of games.
I do enjoy watching them.
And I tried to watch as much as I can, um, buy It doesn't truly way that much into my model.
My models mostly built off statistics, preseason numbers, um, player evaluations, coaching evaluations, um, somebody that all almost all data driven.
Um, looking at how the Wildcats, like, try and run the op, their offenses.
Um, they aren't moving in very fast.
They average about a play over 32 31 seconds.
So they're like right in the middle of the league in that they're not doing great at controlling the ball their own controlling the ball 52% of time again.
Right there in the middle.
Nothing, um, really noteworthy. There.
They both these teams are actually winning the turnover margin.
Um, I think that the Wildcats do You have a fairly talented, um, defense.
I don't think that they have any continuity losing their defensive play.
Caller, um, instead replace him with their head coach who should probably be worried about.
Has coached things in general manager things since expel.
So I think that's gonna be a challenging battle for, um, the Wildcats today.
So my plan is the D.
C defenders, 1/2 minus five.
I would not play it at minus six.
I think my five and 1/2 of a good number you wouldn't want to push on the six because that is very likely with, ah, the way that these teams are missing their extra point conversions.
I'm sure that was one thing that's interesting.
I think I remember that from last week in May, real quickly.
Look, I don't think D.
C has converted an extra point.
Thio Okay, they did not convert an extra point last week at all, and in Week one they converted one that converted 11 point conversion out of seven total attempt that they've had after scoring touchdowns.
I think that's kind of troubling on, and that's why I would stay off of a minus six because there's a good chance that if they get a touchdown, they don't convert an extra point whether they go for 12 or three.
So that's kind of where I'm leaning for that second game in terms of the total.
I think that this one is set pretty fair.
44 right now, the place that pretty much there are about all week.
So I don't have a play in total Here, Um, we have three plays for today, which I've outlined so just once again, real quickly are three plays were taking the Guardians against spread plus Ted plus 10 and 1/2.
Whatever you can find, Alex, both those numbers in that first game, the guardians, uh, battle Hawks game.
We're taking the first half under 20.
Um, you don't mind that I would not play it below 19 and then in the second game, we're playing the DC defenders.
We are taking them in the first half against the spread of minus five and 1/2.
I would play that only at my five and 1/2.
I would not play that at minus six.
Um, real quickly.
Just talking through what we saw yesterday with these games.
Um, first game, I actually end up on the sleep.
Durn, um, had a little bit rough night on Friday night, so I will need to watch that game.
I did pole data into the model based off those games.
So my number's next week for anything involving, um, the Roughnecks or the Vipers is already set.
Um, actually, because of the second game, I pulled that into that one.
So, um, the renegades in the second game were able to defeat the dragon 24 to 12.
Attempted close until the end.
Seattle ended up Dallas and escorting two touchdowns in the second half.
Um, I want to do the same value, either.
Tight under wide receiver who caught two touchdown, 2nd 1 Looks like 60 something yards.
I watched all of that game.
That was actually really great game.
I think that Seattle played better than they did even in last week when they won.
So I think that's pretty positive.
If you are Seattle Dragon Supporter, you happen to be watching a lot of their game.
Um, because I have a re polling data for the running it and for the Roughnecks, I have the spreader projected the next week.
Uh, the roughnecks travel to Dallas to take on the rough.
Running is I have that game projected as a two point spread.
Drive it as Dallas running into minus two, essentially I have these two teams.
Um, I have a Houston of a slightly better team, but when I count for home field advantage, it gives Dallas a flight at a two point advantage in the spread.
The other games because they all feature teams that haven't played yet.
Uh, those spreads are still little rocks out.
We won't be getting into any of that stuff.
Um, I do have one spread projected for next week with the renegades minus two.
So interesting to see what circa pinnacle on the other market making books will release tomorrow.
When we see these numbers drop, um, to be able to play.
Then I will say there if you can get some guys together, you have strong, confident in the way the market going to go there some great opportunities because these numbers fly.
Um, we saw this week the Guardians in Battle Hawks game dropped like curb moved three and 1/2 points.
That's pretty incredible.
You do not do that in the NFL with the point spread and less like, ah, starting quarterback goes down in the middle of the week like it's very rare to see that type of swing on point.
The only time you really see that in college football is the game of the year game.
Like when those are dropped in June August.
Whenever, that is that the sports book start releasing some of the Premier Games.
Some of those numbers will change and swing drastically, but that's just because their opener so.
But across the board, we're seeing these XFL lines kind of dart all over the board.
So that is something to be mindful of.
A few like a tea and kind of get a feel on what the market thanks for them, because you might get your best opportunity betting them, especially if you like favorites.
You're probably getting a good opportunity to best time ever being in the week.
If you're willing to play some dogs, you probably want to sit it out because these numbers have moved in favor of dogs, giving them more value as the week progresses.
Um, this week Tuesday night, I will be doing a live XFL podcast with Jesse Uncle's Uncle Jesse, with 300 scores on Twitter.
Hey, is one of the ****ysts for the breakdown ports up.
We're going to a live broadcast, so for those who want to join in and listen to us, we'll kind of just be talking to man XFL.
We will distribute it onto podcast platforms, will have it on YouTube as well.
Uh, so that way you can catch a recording of it.
If you aren't able to catch it live if you are able to catch a live will be taking questions.
Will be trying to make this as interactive as possible to make it something very fun and unique.
With a start of football league and the XFL with how much fun we've been having covering it so far, We want to try and do something unique, Um, and bring that together.
So that's all I got, uh, for today before I go, I do want to give a quick plug or two to the breakdown.
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Um, so that's all I got.
Uh, just real quick to recap my three plays for today, we have the Guardian plus 10 or plus 10 and 1/2.
We have the first half under 20 points in the Guardians and Battle Hawks game.
And then we have the D C defenders first half minus five and 1/2 taking them against its bright in the first half of the second game there.
So that's all we got.
Um, enjoy the rest of your Sunday.
Have a great day.
Um, actually beautiful in Chicago.
50 degrees Fahrenheit.
So hopefully, if you live in a city that started warm up, you're getting a chance to enjoy some of that.
Uh, get out there.
We got the game kicking off a little bit later to that.
Have a good one.
And, uh, thanks for fallen