morning, everyone, um, welcoming.
I'm gonna go ahead and share the stream.
Um, give me a moment while I shared too Twitter.
But everyone's having a good Saturday.
So far, we're gonna be talking about some extra felt.
Uh, give me one moment here while it share it.
Um, course my water.
So after that, well, all right.
Gotta stay hydrated.
Very important for there.
All right, so gonna go ahead and get started here.
Voice not doing that.
Went out for a night on the town last night.
Ended up singing *** and candy by market playground.
Um, gonna go ahead and get it started here.
We have two games today, Two games tomorrow.
I'll give you my lines on all four games.
I will do a stream again tomorrow.
I got no plans this weekend from actually gonna get some opportunity to watch all of these games.
Uh, I watched about half of the game last week.
I watched all of the games week on, um, trying to get back in to see how much I can see for ah, tonight.
All of the game site.
First game today is at 2 p.m. Eastern.
The roughnecks at the Tampa Bay and Vipers.
Um, And then after that, we've got, uh, Seattle.
We have the Dallas Renegades at Seattle Dragons.
Um, first name will be on ABC.
Second name's gonna be on Fox games for tomorrow.
We have the New York Guardians at the ST Louis Battle Hawk 3 p.m.
And then we have the D.
C defenders that the L A Wild Cats at 6 p.m. Eastern.
Tomorrow's games, they're on ESPN, and then that's one.
If you see my eyes moving back and forth live a two monitors set up.
So that is why my eyes are darting around.
Still waiting on one of my buddies are someone that we found on Twitter to publish some time of possession numbers.
Um, so my my numbers are a little raw right now as it's using week one time of possession data.
Everything else has been updated, um, line for today's games.
I'm using Pinnacle Pinnacles, a market making book.
So I feel that they are the best option when you're looking at sharing on your odds for whatever book you choose to, you will be maybe different.
Um, they could be the same.
So I definitely encourage shopping around to that.
Um, the Vipers are seven point underdog at home of the for today's 2 p.m. Eastern game.
Then the Seattle Dragons are four point underdogs home later this evening.
Um, taking on the Dallas Renegades.
Tomorrow's games We have the ST Louis Battle Hawks minus 10 favorites, huh? For their match up with the New York Gardens.
I mean, I know the Guardians can stink, but I don't know if they think that much on then.
Last game, we have the Los Angeles Wildcats as eight point underdogs.
Find a plus eight taking on D C defenders, um, those of the current line.
Um, Penny has the, um, Houston roughneck stamp of a Viper's game shaded towards Houston.
Um, Houston's minus seven is minus 1 14 Looks like they're taking a little bit more money on the Houston side.
Um, or they have confidence in, um there.
Judging that, Houston is more likely to cover it from this seven points, friend.
It'll really, really do the vocal court from damage.
I would sing it.
So, getting into the ex about, um, first game, the Roughnecks on the Vipers.
I have that game currently lined at a four point spread.
Um, I was very bullish on the Vipers to 30 year, but we're through two weeks.
They haven't scored enough into touchdown.
Um, that either need to change or something needs to happen.
Um, I do have The Roughnecks is one of my better teams in the league up.
So I think that the Roughnecks, right now I have them ranked is my second best team.
Whereas I have the Vipers, I present the fifth overall, Um, by my rating, Uh, so I think that Houston is considerably better team.
I just don't think that Tampa Bay should be a 7.
100 out of my projections from my model.
I have it lined to the Port point game.
Um, for the second game, I actually have a match right now on because my numbers are a little bit rough.
Um, without having update time of possession data.
As of right now, um, I am not playing the saliva line.
That four spread is currently Pinnacle has at four.
Um, so that would be a stay away game for me If I were to bet either side once I get my updated time of possession numbers, Theoretically, it could, uh, change the spread on that up to one full point.
Um, but for my projection, But we'll have to say what is going on there, Fleming, now that my video is really chopping, um, so I apologize for this.
I will try and get through the shredder quickly then so I can figure out what is going on with my camera.
All right, uh, with the Tampa Bay game.
So I have, as I mention, eyes that lined as a four point game is actually up to seven.
Um, I mentioned that I was bullish on the Vipers.
Vipers are without Nick Trousdale.
Who is? They're starting tight end.
They are without their starting center.
And Aaron Murray's out again.
Um, what that even means for offense.
Who hasn't really shown up? Not totally sure.
Um I did take a They took a hit.
A two point to the spread hit from injury issues on the other side.
Houston is healthy.
It could be, um, So Houston is Ah, a little bit.
There are a lot healthier.
So that is good to say.
If you like the heat inside of things? Um, I have the Vipers projected as a four win team with reason.
And I have the Roughnecks projective 71 team.
I do not think that the Vipers can win this game to that.
I think we're gonna see the Viper start the season voluntary.
Um, my do***ents.
Really strange noises.
Gonna you? Good.
She needs water.
Um, so I have them.
A sizeable difference is there, but I think that Tampa Bay can keep this close.
Their pressures on the coaching staff pressures on the offense to figure this out to put some points on the board.
Um, so I think that they can keep this game a little bit closer.
I know Houston has done really well.
Houston's been pretty dominant in there games.
They've not really been running a lot of plays, which is interesting, but they're putting up on the season.
They have the most point.
Um, they have 65 points in the year, but they have the second lowest number of, um, plays run on offense, which is pretty crazy.
Um, the Houston has a score margin of 12 point, so they won their first game by 20 then one last week by four on Dhe.
Then on the other side of things, Tampa Bay lost by 20 their first week, and then they lost by eight last week.
So their score margin is a minus 14.
Their average score margin.
At this point into the season, we'll get the turnover battle.
I give the edge to Houston.
He has a positive turnover margin of plus two.
Vipers are minus.
One of the Vipers aren't necessarily having issues.
Um, keeping the ball. They did.
I think they had some tumbled last week, er a fumble when they really quickly pulled this up, they had three turnovers last week.
Um, we had an interception, um, and then, uh, turn over on down.
So that's where those came from and then taking a look at, um, statistic wise, I really like Houston.
I just don't think it's a seven point spread.
I don't think Tampa Bay the first game at home.
Ah, they played home in week one, but they're returning home after being on the road.
I think that they want to get the twin.
I think that having their center, their starting quarterback in the starting tight end who did does see a lot of targets.
Um, having them out is going to do them from harm, so I think that they'll keep a close.
But I do not think that they will, um, be able to win.
So play on the first game is going to be Tampa Bay plus seven.
We'll put that in the chat for those, um, joining now some number one Tampa Bay Vipers plus seven.
My projected threat on it is for a while.
I would take it down that far.
If you can get a seven, If you can get a seven and 1/2 I'm gonna check what is available in other places among seven.
A lot of seventh.
Um, so if you could get a seven and 1/2 go for, but I wouldn't take six and 1/2 years.
Seven readily available on basically every book that ties a bow on the first game.
Um, that will be going on in two hours.
Yeah, that'll be a fun game.
Um, I have the vipers as the team might play.
Um, they did not pick up a win for May last week.
Um, as we went to and two against Spread with the model model is five and three on the year hoping to maintain that and build on it each week.
The longer weaker, the further we get this season stronger data is more data points.
Um, the less noise we're going to have in these numbers, So I'm just looking forward to getting that, uh, caught up.
Um, beginning next week, I will start projecting scores as well.
Um, I think that I'll have enough data at that point.
Um, right now it's still early.
We only have two games.
So basically, if you're projecting point you are, I'm just taking an average of two games, so that's not enough data there.
Um, I like, um, to get a little bit more meat on the bone for that second game.
As I mentioned Dallas renegades at the Seattle Dragon that is taking place at 5 p.m.
Red currently lined up four.
I have it projected it for, um, some notes that I have on these two teams.
The home team Seattle Dragons are without their starting left tackle.
They have a depth offensive lineman who is doubtful when I look at injuries.
I'm looking at it in the 25% tiles, so out.
Is there percent chance Doubtful.
25% chance of playing.
Um, then I have probable and questionable.
After that, they also have their one of their wide receivers out.
So I only hit it to the spread by half a point.
Nothing terribly major there.
I don't think that it will endure them.
They were extremely run heavy on last week.
They were actually were the most front heavy team.
I think I What about right here? They were the most run heavy team for last week.
They ran the ball 63% of their 49 place.
They didn't get a lot of plays them.
They don't move the ball all that quick, so they put the ball on the ground a lot, and they'll be looking to do the same.
Probably against Dallas.
Dallas goes the other one.
Dallas is all past Dallas injuries.
Look, if I've got anything here, Dallas is no major noteworthy injuries.
Um, they've got some players probable.
They have a defensive tackle who's out, but nothing major.
Ah, the wider fever, um, was probable.
But he was a full participant in practice on credit.
Um, so I wouldn't be concerned with that one.
Um, again, I have this lined up for so I'm not going to have a play against the spread on this one.
I think that it will be a close game.
Um, I do like, uh, I do like Oh, no, I think if I were to bet this, I'm I honestly would take Seattle.
Um, on the Moneyline, you get a map around plus 1 60 I think that's not a bad bet.
Maybe you throw half unit wager on that one because I think that if they can control the ball and play their style of game, um, I think that they could grind this out very low score again.
I think that this will be, um, this will probably be the one of the lower scoring game of the weekend.
I think tomorrow's matchup guardians the battle.
Hawkes is going to be really low scoring as well.
But I think that this if Seattle has the time of possession, they're holding onto the ball.
I think that they will be able to, uh, sweet without Dallas passing the ball.
65% of the time, so that creates a lot of opportunities for Seattle to get the ball.
They can force three and out if they can force turnovers, if they can get them.
If they could get Dallas after punt, the longer that they hold onto the ball, the better.
Last week, Seattle against Tampa Bay, the defense was on the field for almost the entire game.
They were on the field for 70 plays while their offense only played 50.
So not a lot there.
I think that for them to make this game and win at home as an underdog, they're gonna need to control the time of possession.
They're gonna need to run more plays, score margin, UH, their average score margins.
Right now, Dallas is about even 0.5.
So they lost by six and weak one.
They won like seven last week.
Um, Seattle, On the other hand, there's a minus two score margin.
They lost by 12 average score margin by 12 and weak one.
They won by eight last week.
You've got to give it to Seattle here.
Seattle forced a lot of turnovers with Tampa Bay last week.
Um, Seattle actually is the most.
Turnover has the highest turnover margin in the league with plus three.
Where in Dallas is a minus one.
Dallas turnover margin was even in week one, and it was minus one last week.
So they're minus one on the year with their turnover margin.
They are taking a look at points per play.
Um, which is something that I like to see.
How quickly can a team score? How quickly are they able to make a comeback? And things of that nature? Houston actually leads the league.
Would there was a point for play They are averaging.
Okay, for everyone plays their scoring for everyone.
Um, so for which is pretty incredible.
That is way higher than anyone else in leak.
Uh, NFL, the points per play you're probably looking at, like a 0.
45 as league average.
Um, where you then have teams like, um, the guardians who are the But I mean, Tampa Bay's Lois.
I have Tampa Bay is having some point.
Um, however, last week, six of their points were from their defense.
Tampa Bay's point per play is 0.
8 So that is quite the anemic offense.
But Seattle is actually up there with Houston.
So that's why I think that, um, Seattle could do pretty well this week as home underdogs to Dallas.
Um, I have Seattle's points for play here at 0.3.
Looks good for third in the league, whereas Dallas is 0.
27 witches in league as faras.
What their defenses are allowing the Dallas defense is a little bit more stiff than, um, Seattle defense when you're looking at opposing points for play.
Um, Dallas in the third ranked team, third best in the league for opposing points.
Seattle is number five.
Um, check it out.
We got some time of possession numbers yet.
Put it on Twitter know yet? Okay, Um, once I get those, I will throw those immediately into my, uh, my model, and I'll be ableto freak out really exactly what we've got.
So be able to take care of that.
So those are the two side a game? If you have any questions on any of those two games today, um, please let me know.
Uh, shoot in the chaps You can follow me on Twitter.
At act bored in von Denham.
Uh, Jordan, Just like my name is here.
Um, you can follow the breakdown sports at the underscore breakdown.
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We actually have some new logos up onto our page, so it's looking pretty nice.
Drop the link in the comment section.
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We've got stuff with our logos on it.
We have, like, funny sport sheriff's.
We have sport shirts for all different teams in different sports.
Um, this one says, make sure that everyone can see it.
Phone says I hedge my bet.
Then all I got was this lousy T shirt.
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Um, we've had it up.
We've sold a handful of these.
If you want this shirt, head over to our web store bit.
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Pick up. They have some really nice merchandise.
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Check out our buddies.
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All right, let's run through Sunday pretty quickly.
I will do another stream tomorrow, talking Sunday, a little bit more in depth, but for now, I'll just do a quick five minutes.
5 10 minutes on, uh, tomorrow. Slate.
First game we have is, uh, New York guardians at the Seattle battle hawk that's going on at 3 p.m. Eastern.
Um, spread right now.
Seattle, Mont ST Louis Minus, which is wild.
Um, I've only made two bets so far this week.
Personally, I will be putting in a Seattle dragon's money line.
Um, I have that Plus 1 62 The best price said I'm seeing.
So that's what I'll play.
Ah, my bookie is available right now.
So if you want that Seattle, um, bonus play, uh, a little call that little half, you know, but, um, got overto my bookie.
They've got a plus 1 60 Just check for the half in a play.
Um, so you can go ahead and you can lock that in on my bookie shop around because the money line.
But you're gonna have a lot of, um, my book you might have.
Ah, I've heard may They just lowered the up.
Plus 1 55 Um, check your books.
Um, best option I got now is a plus 1 62 through a local.
Um, So I will you take that? +16 is available on, um, but online.
So if you want to check that one out.
That's an option.
I will throw a happy unit on the Seattle Dragon's money line.
Okay, Uh, so the other best that I have already made, uh, Tampa Bay Vipers plus seven. I grabbed that.
And then, um, I also have already bet the ah, would I take I took the Guardians plus, Ted, um, that numbers way to pick this The line opened at seven and 1/2 at seven and 1/2.
I think that is a pretty fair line that I think that it could be very close to that.
But at 10 you cannot be.
You can't lay 10 points with, um I know they are a great team, and I have a lot of respect for them.
And I have New York as my worst team in the league, but I don't think we're at a point for teens Are 10 point dogs this far into the season? Um, I haven't lined as six.
Um, I think that's a little too, um, nice to the Guardians.
I have them a three win teen.
Whereas I have a family with Battle hawk with 51 team side.
Louis going 500 on the season? Um, yeah, I just I don't see it being a 10 point spread.
Uh, so I will happily take plus 10 there, Um, from the data that goes into it as to why I have it projected as a plus six.
Uh, so ST Louis has they're not putting up a lot of points for their their points for play, their sixth in the league.
Whereas the Guardians are barely behind them at seven.
Um, there's a There's 1000.
3 different, and their points replied, So they their offenses in terms of when they score the score based on how many plays they run, they're almost identical.
Um, however, on the other side of things, it's that the Guardians are have one of the stronger opposing points per play.
Um, and the battle hawk, Actually, one of the weaker the battle Hawks have scored, um, a lot of points in their games, and their opponents have poured a lot of points in game.
So there opposing points for players not nearly as attractive, um, as the guardians.
Even though the Guardians did, uh, give up what was 27 last week um, so I have a line that six Still some noise in that? Um, realistically, I think it should be about seven.
So if I'm getting a plus 10 a New York audience plus, then I will take that all day and twice on Sunday.
Um, so I'll put that in the chat.
Um, yes, Guardian.
Um, that is my third place.
Uh, and I'll talk a little bit more in detail on it tomorrow.
Um, injury wise.
Um, I think this was a game.
The next game is where I really had some injury news on it.
The New York Guardians.
I docked them half a point for having their starting right guard out.
ST Louis is a healthy, so no point taken off them there.
The second game tomorrow.
Tomorrow evening's game is going to be the D.
C defenders at the Los Angeles Wild Steppes.
Um, line is currently at hey, eight behalf.
That line is up to eight and 1/2 now in pinnacle.
Um, I haven't lined up six and 1/2 so with that, I would take the Wildcats, uh, take underdog because you're getting two extra points I'm not sure about that one.
I probably wouldn't make that bet.
Not at this time.
Because I need some more information on the Wildcats injury.
They have tons of probables.
If you go to the XFL website and you you can find where is it under news You can hate, uh, injury report.
The ice scoured through that.
If you scroll down to where, uh, l A is.
It looks like their entire lineup, um, is injured.
Kind of injured, banged up.
They had three peat made four people not even participate in practice.
They had 54 limited.
And then they have five more people who are full participants, but still lifted its probable.
I'm going to need a little bit more information on that game.
Um, I also want to see what the, um possession looks like for them to get a little bit of a better idea.
Um, but in the first game I started tomorrow, I definitely like the guardians of placental.
Highly recommend that that I outlined there.
I gave out Tampa Bay plus seven as my first play for today.
Um, I give a bonus play for half unit of Seattle Dragon's money line.
Um, I have that game mind four.
So I wouldn't be betting it again.
Spread the guardians I have at I blocked them in that plus 10 the New York Guardians.
I backed him lined at six.
So you have a four point.
My model is a four point edge on the Guardians.
Um, and then I have I would say, last game I have lined at six and 1/2.
Um, current spread is eight and 1/2 being given to extra point.
I would take the underdogs, but Elia Wildcats, But I haven't walked a thing.
And I'm gonna wait for some more information on that, check out temp possession and dig a little bit more into the staff.
Um, that's all I have for this, uh, for two, that I will be tweeting tweet out my place.
Um, about an hour before kickoff.
So for those of you who are we're sticking around to watch this.
I really appreciate it.
You're getting first access to my place.
So we have our play number one first play of the week, Tampa Bay plus seven.
Our play number two, which is a bonus play after you know, is Seattle Dragons.
I got it at plus 1 60 I believe, Um, plus 1 62 You know that is good There.
And then, uh, for my play number three, I have the New York audience plus 10 when play number four theoretically would be, um the quixotic totals are still too high.
Unders are heading.
Okay. Ah, yes. So numb.
The let me pull up with circa opened with, um I love circus sports because they share all of their opening numbers on Twitter.
So let me check what they actually opened this week at, um, they open the vipers and Roughnecks at 47 a half.
Pinnacle, it's currently at 45 a half.
Um, that game, I think.
Could that probably come right in line with that? I think that that is actually a hairline.
Uh, circa opened the renegades in the dragon.
That is too high of a line.
Even at 42 currently.
I'd probably still I would take the under on that one.
I think that that total is still too high.
I don't think across the board.
It is the case that total They're still too high I think we're going to see good opportunities to play on some total, um, guardians and battle.
Hawkes is 42 a half, Um, where that's what I opened up.
It is currently at 40 and 1/2.
I think that one will go over.
I think we saw a complete overreaction to the Guardian putting up a bag last week for their defense.
Still allowed 27 points.
Um, ST Louis has played from, like, slower moving in, but they still had 52 points in the game last week.
Um, I think that one will go over, and I think that that will kind of realign the market, too.
What I feel is more true about the totals as to whether they're too high or not.
Um, last game is the D C defenders and the Wildcats that opened at 45.
It is at 44 right now.
I think that's fairly online.
I think these he can absolutely run the score up on score on anyone.
It will be whether the Wildcats can, um, what they do on the scoreboard.
Um, last week they scored 18 points. Week one.
I think they scored 17.
So I think that one, depending on how strong the D C defense is again.
I think that that one is pretty spot this time.
So if I were to play a total, I would play the Roughnecks and the Vipers.
Take that under.
Um, I would take the renegades and the Dragons under 42.
I would take the Guardians and Battle Hawks over 40 and 1/2 on I would stay away from the D C defenders and Wild Captain.
Um, Well, too much noise right now with the old that really appreciate everyone for joining it.
I'm gonna sign off now.
Please follow me on Twitter at Gordon.
Ron Denham followed the breakdown sports at the underscore breakdown.
Check out her web site, www dot breakdown sport with a breakdown sports dot com.
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Go check out her feet, check out our website.
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I'll be back tomorrow morning.
I'll run through the Sunday lineup More in depth.
Peace. Have a good one.