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00:00:07
morning, everyone, um, welcoming.
00:00:09
I'm gonna go ahead and share the stream.
00:00:12
Um, give me a moment while I shared too Twitter.
00:00:27
But everyone's having a good Saturday.
00:00:28
So far, we're gonna be talking about some extra felt.
00:00:31
Uh, give me one moment here while it share it.
00:00:33
Um, course my water.
00:00:36
So after that, well, all right.
00:00:53
Gotta stay hydrated.
00:00:54
Very important for there.
00:01:14
All right, so gonna go ahead and get started here.
00:01:17
Voice not doing that.
00:01:20
Went out for a night on the town last night.
00:01:22
Ended up singing *** and candy by market playground.
00:01:25
Um, gonna go ahead and get it started here.
00:01:28
We have two games today, Two games tomorrow.
00:01:31
I'll give you my lines on all four games.
00:01:34
I will do a stream again tomorrow.
00:01:36
I got no plans this weekend from actually gonna get some opportunity to watch all of these games.
00:01:42
Uh, I watched about half of the game last week.
00:01:44
I watched all of the games week on, um, trying to get back in to see how much I can see for ah, tonight.
00:01:53
All of the game site.
00:01:54
First game today is at 2 p.m. Eastern.
00:01:57
The roughnecks at the Tampa Bay and Vipers.
00:02:01
Um, And then after that, we've got, uh, Seattle.
00:02:05
We have the Dallas Renegades at Seattle Dragons.
00:02:08
Um, first name will be on ABC.
00:02:10
Second name's gonna be on Fox games for tomorrow.
00:02:13
We have the New York Guardians at the ST Louis Battle Hawk 3 p.m.
00:02:20
Eastern.
00:02:21
And then we have the D.
00:02:22
C defenders that the L A Wild Cats at 6 p.m. Eastern.
00:02:26
Tomorrow's games, they're on ESPN, and then that's one.
00:02:29
If you see my eyes moving back and forth live a two monitors set up.
00:02:33
So that is why my eyes are darting around.
00:02:39
Still waiting on one of my buddies are someone that we found on Twitter to publish some time of possession numbers.
00:02:45
Um, so my my numbers are a little raw right now as it's using week one time of possession data.
00:02:53
Everything else has been updated, um, line for today's games.
00:02:59
I'm using Pinnacle Pinnacles, a market making book.
00:03:03
So I feel that they are the best option when you're looking at sharing on your odds for whatever book you choose to, you will be maybe different.
00:03:13
Um, they could be the same.
00:03:15
So I definitely encourage shopping around to that.
00:03:19
Um, the Vipers are seven point underdog at home of the for today's 2 p.m. Eastern game.
00:03:28
Then the Seattle Dragons are four point underdogs home later this evening.
00:03:35
Um, taking on the Dallas Renegades.
00:03:37
Tomorrow's games We have the ST Louis Battle Hawks minus 10 favorites, huh? For their match up with the New York Gardens.
00:03:45
I mean, I know the Guardians can stink, but I don't know if they think that much on then.
00:03:50
Last game, we have the Los Angeles Wildcats as eight point underdogs.
00:03:55
Find a plus eight taking on D C defenders, um, those of the current line.
00:04:01
Um, Penny has the, um, Houston roughneck stamp of a Viper's game shaded towards Houston.
00:04:13
Um, Houston's minus seven is minus 1 14 Looks like they're taking a little bit more money on the Houston side.
00:04:21
Um, or they have confidence in, um there.
00:04:26
Judging that, Houston is more likely to cover it from this seven points, friend.
00:04:32
Oh, karaoke.
00:04:34
A man.
00:04:35
It'll really, really do the vocal court from damage.
00:04:37
I would sing it.
00:04:39
All right.
00:04:40
So, getting into the ex about, um, first game, the Roughnecks on the Vipers.
00:04:46
I have that game currently lined at a four point spread.
00:04:51
Um, I was very bullish on the Vipers to 30 year, but we're through two weeks.
00:04:58
They haven't scored enough into touchdown.
00:05:00
Um, that either need to change or something needs to happen.
00:05:04
Um, I do have The Roughnecks is one of my better teams in the league up.
00:05:09
So I think that the Roughnecks, right now I have them ranked is my second best team.
00:05:14
Whereas I have the Vipers, I present the fifth overall, Um, by my rating, Uh, so I think that Houston is considerably better team.
00:05:29
I just don't think that Tampa Bay should be a 7.
00:05:32
100 out of my projections from my model.
00:05:36
I have it lined to the Port point game.
00:05:38
Um, for the second game, I actually have a match right now on because my numbers are a little bit rough.
00:05:45
Um, without having update time of possession data.
00:05:48
As of right now, um, I am not playing the saliva line.
00:05:53
That four spread is currently Pinnacle has at four.
00:05:58
Um, so that would be a stay away game for me If I were to bet either side once I get my updated time of possession numbers, Theoretically, it could, uh, change the spread on that up to one full point.
00:06:16
Um, but for my projection, But we'll have to say what is going on there, Fleming, now that my video is really chopping, um, so I apologize for this.
00:06:31
I will try and get through the shredder quickly then so I can figure out what is going on with my camera.
00:06:40
All right, uh, with the Tampa Bay game.
00:06:44
So I have, as I mention, eyes that lined as a four point game is actually up to seven.
00:06:49
Um, I mentioned that I was bullish on the Vipers.
00:06:53
Vipers are without Nick Trousdale.
00:06:56
Who is? They're starting tight end.
00:06:58
They are without their starting center.
00:07:00
And Aaron Murray's out again.
00:07:02
Um, what that even means for offense.
00:07:05
Who hasn't really shown up? Not totally sure.
00:07:08
But I am.
00:07:09
Um I did take a They took a hit.
00:07:13
A two point to the spread hit from injury issues on the other side.
00:07:19
Houston is healthy.
00:07:20
It could be, um, So Houston is Ah, a little bit.
00:07:26
There are a lot healthier.
00:07:28
So that is good to say.
00:07:31
If you like the heat inside of things? Um, I have the Vipers projected as a four win team with reason.
00:07:40
And I have the Roughnecks projective 71 team.
00:07:44
I do not think that the Vipers can win this game to that.
00:07:47
I think we're gonna see the Viper start the season voluntary.
00:07:51
Um, my do***ents.
00:07:53
Really strange noises.
00:07:54
Gonna you? Good.
00:07:58
She needs water.
00:08:00
Um, so I have them.
00:08:02
A sizeable difference is there, but I think that Tampa Bay can keep this close.
00:08:07
Their pressures on the coaching staff pressures on the offense to figure this out to put some points on the board.
00:08:16
Um, so I think that they can keep this game a little bit closer.
00:08:19
I know Houston has done really well.
00:08:22
Houston's been pretty dominant in there games.
00:08:26
They've not really been running a lot of plays, which is interesting, but they're putting up on the season.
00:08:31
They have the most point.
00:08:32
Um, they have 65 points in the year, but they have the second lowest number of, um, plays run on offense, which is pretty crazy.
00:08:43
Um, the Houston has a score margin of 12 point, so they won their first game by 20 then one last week by four on Dhe.
00:08:52
Then on the other side of things, Tampa Bay lost by 20 their first week, and then they lost by eight last week.
00:09:00
So their score margin is a minus 14.
00:09:04
Their average score margin.
00:09:05
At this point into the season, we'll get the turnover battle.
00:09:08
I give the edge to Houston.
00:09:10
He has a positive turnover margin of plus two.
00:09:15
Vipers are minus.
00:09:16
One of the Vipers aren't necessarily having issues.
00:09:20
Um, keeping the ball. They did.
00:09:23
I think they had some tumbled last week, er a fumble when they really quickly pulled this up, they had three turnovers last week.
00:09:32
Um, we had an interception, um, and then, uh, turn over on down.
00:09:40
So that's where those came from and then taking a look at, um, statistic wise, I really like Houston.
00:09:51
I just don't think it's a seven point spread.
00:09:53
I don't think Tampa Bay the first game at home.
00:09:59
Ah, they played home in week one, but they're returning home after being on the road.
00:10:03
I think that they want to get the twin.
00:10:05
I think that having their center, their starting quarterback in the starting tight end who did does see a lot of targets.
00:10:13
Um, having them out is going to do them from harm, so I think that they'll keep a close.
00:10:19
But I do not think that they will, um, be able to win.
00:10:25
So play on the first game is going to be Tampa Bay plus seven.
00:10:31
We'll put that in the chat for those, um, joining now some number one Tampa Bay Vipers plus seven.
00:10:39
My projected threat on it is for a while.
00:10:42
I would take it down that far.
00:10:44
If you can get a seven, If you can get a seven and 1/2 I'm gonna check what is available in other places among seven.
00:10:52
A lot of seventh.
00:10:53
Um, so if you could get a seven and 1/2 go for, but I wouldn't take six and 1/2 years.
00:10:59
Seven readily available on basically every book that ties a bow on the first game.
00:11:07
Um, that will be going on in two hours.
00:11:11
I do math.
00:11:12
Yeah, that'll be a fun game.
00:11:15
Um, I have the vipers as the team might play.
00:11:19
Um, they did not pick up a win for May last week.
00:11:22
Um, as we went to and two against Spread with the model model is five and three on the year hoping to maintain that and build on it each week.
00:11:35
The longer weaker, the further we get this season stronger data is more data points.
00:11:40
Um, the less noise we're going to have in these numbers, So I'm just looking forward to getting that, uh, caught up.
00:11:48
Um, beginning next week, I will start projecting scores as well.
00:11:52
Um, I think that I'll have enough data at that point.
00:11:56
Um, right now it's still early.
00:11:59
We only have two games.
00:12:01
So basically, if you're projecting point you are, I'm just taking an average of two games, so that's not enough data there.
00:12:10
Um, I like, um, to get a little bit more meat on the bone for that second game.
00:12:16
As I mentioned Dallas renegades at the Seattle Dragon that is taking place at 5 p.m.
00:12:23
Tonight.
00:12:26
Red currently lined up four.
00:12:27
I have it projected it for, um, some notes that I have on these two teams.
00:12:34
The home team Seattle Dragons are without their starting left tackle.
00:12:38
They have a depth offensive lineman who is doubtful when I look at injuries.
00:12:43
I'm looking at it in the 25% tiles, so out.
00:12:48
Is there percent chance Doubtful.
00:12:50
25% chance of playing.
00:12:52
Um, then I have probable and questionable.
00:12:56
After that, they also have their one of their wide receivers out.
00:13:00
So I only hit it to the spread by half a point.
00:13:04
Nothing terribly major there.
00:13:06
I don't think that it will endure them.
00:13:10
They were extremely run heavy on last week.
00:13:13
They were actually were the most front heavy team.
00:13:16
I think I What about right here? They were the most run heavy team for last week.
00:13:25
They ran the ball 63% of their 49 place.
00:13:29
They didn't get a lot of plays them.
00:13:32
They don't move the ball all that quick, so they put the ball on the ground a lot, and they'll be looking to do the same.
00:13:41
Probably against Dallas.
00:13:44
Dallas goes the other one.
00:13:45
Dallas is all past Dallas injuries.
00:13:48
Look, if I've got anything here, Dallas is no major noteworthy injuries.
00:13:52
Um, they've got some players probable.
00:13:57
They have a defensive tackle who's out, but nothing major.
00:14:02
Ah, the wider fever, um, was probable.
00:14:05
But he was a full participant in practice on credit.
00:14:08
Um, so I wouldn't be concerned with that one.
00:14:13
Um, again, I have this lined up for so I'm not going to have a play against the spread on this one.
00:14:20
I think that it will be a close game.
00:14:22
Um, I do like, uh, I do like Oh, no, I think if I were to bet this, I'm I honestly would take Seattle.
00:14:38
Um, on the Moneyline, you get a map around plus 1 60 I think that's not a bad bet.
00:14:44
Maybe you throw half unit wager on that one because I think that if they can control the ball and play their style of game, um, I think that they could grind this out very low score again.
00:14:56
I think that this will be, um, this will probably be the one of the lower scoring game of the weekend.
00:15:02
I think tomorrow's matchup guardians the battle.
00:15:04
Hawkes is going to be really low scoring as well.
00:15:08
But I think that this if Seattle has the time of possession, they're holding onto the ball.
00:15:14
I think that they will be able to, uh, sweet without Dallas passing the ball.
00:15:20
65% of the time, so that creates a lot of opportunities for Seattle to get the ball.
00:15:26
They can force three and out if they can force turnovers, if they can get them.
00:15:32
If they could get Dallas after punt, the longer that they hold onto the ball, the better.
00:15:37
Last week, Seattle against Tampa Bay, the defense was on the field for almost the entire game.
00:15:43
They were on the field for 70 plays while their offense only played 50.
00:15:49
So not a lot there.
00:15:50
I think that for them to make this game and win at home as an underdog, they're gonna need to control the time of possession.
00:15:59
They're gonna need to run more plays, score margin, UH, their average score margins.
00:16:08
Right now, Dallas is about even 0.5.
00:16:12
So they lost by six and weak one.
00:16:15
They won like seven last week.
00:16:16
Um, Seattle, On the other hand, there's a minus two score margin.
00:16:20
They lost by 12 average score margin by 12 and weak one.
00:16:25
They won by eight last week.
00:16:27
Turnover battle.
00:16:28
You've got to give it to Seattle here.
00:16:30
Seattle forced a lot of turnovers with Tampa Bay last week.
00:16:35
Um, Seattle actually is the most.
00:16:36
Turnover has the highest turnover margin in the league with plus three.
00:16:42
Where in Dallas is a minus one.
00:16:44
Dallas turnover margin was even in week one, and it was minus one last week.
00:16:48
So they're minus one on the year with their turnover margin.
00:16:52
Okay, Okay.
00:16:55
They are taking a look at points per play.
00:16:58
Um, which is something that I like to see.
00:17:00
How quickly can a team score? How quickly are they able to make a comeback? And things of that nature? Houston actually leads the league.
00:17:09
Would there was a point for play They are averaging.
00:17:13
Okay, for everyone plays their scoring for everyone.
00:17:22
Plaque there.
00:17:23
4.6 point.
00:17:25
Um, so for which is pretty incredible.
00:17:27
That is way higher than anyone else in leak.
00:17:31
Uh, NFL, the points per play you're probably looking at, like a 0.
00:17:36
45 as league average.
00:17:39
Um, where you then have teams like, um, the guardians who are the But I mean, Tampa Bay's Lois.
00:17:49
I have Tampa Bay is having some point.
00:17:52
Um, however, last week, six of their points were from their defense.
00:17:56
Tampa Bay's point per play is 0.
00:17:59
8 So that is quite the anemic offense.
00:18:05
But Seattle is actually up there with Houston.
00:18:09
So that's why I think that, um, Seattle could do pretty well this week as home underdogs to Dallas.
00:18:16
Um, I have Seattle's points for play here at 0.3.
00:18:23
Looks good for third in the league, whereas Dallas is 0.
00:18:27
27 witches in league as faras.
00:18:31
What their defenses are allowing the Dallas defense is a little bit more stiff than, um, Seattle defense when you're looking at opposing points for play.
00:18:41
Um, Dallas in the third ranked team, third best in the league for opposing points.
00:18:46
Reply a while.
00:18:47
Seattle is number five.
00:18:50
Um, check it out.
00:18:51
We got some time of possession numbers yet.
00:18:55
Put it on Twitter know yet? Okay, Um, once I get those, I will throw those immediately into my, uh, my model, and I'll be ableto freak out really exactly what we've got.
00:19:10
So be able to take care of that.
00:19:13
Um, great.
00:19:17
So those are the two side a game? If you have any questions on any of those two games today, um, please let me know.
00:19:23
Uh, shoot in the chaps You can follow me on Twitter.
00:19:27
At act bored in von Denham.
00:19:29
Uh, Jordan, Just like my name is here.
00:19:34
Um, you can follow the breakdown sports at the underscore breakdown.
00:19:39
Um, I'm actually wearing a shirt straight off of our, um, merch store.
00:19:44
Um, which I will drop one for that.
00:19:47
Well, um, I'd really appreciate it, sport.
00:19:50
We actually have some new logos up onto our page, so it's looking pretty nice.
00:19:56
Um, come here.
00:20:05
Drop the link in the comment section.
00:20:07
Bit l y slash the breakdown store.
00:20:10
We've got stuff with our logos on it.
00:20:13
We have, like, funny sport sheriff's.
00:20:15
We have sport shirts for all different teams in different sports.
00:20:19
Um, this one says, make sure that everyone can see it.
00:20:25
Phone says I hedge my bet.
00:20:27
Then all I got was this lousy T shirt.
00:20:29
Um, which pretty funny.
00:20:31
Um, we've had it up.
00:20:32
We've sold a handful of these.
00:20:34
If you want this shirt, head over to our web store bit.
00:20:38
L y slash the breakdown store, check out our website.
00:20:42
The breakdown sports dot com.
00:20:45
Um, you've got We got soccer up there right now.
00:20:48
We got the hockey staff.
00:20:50
We have better upload some fantasy NFL football content.
00:20:55
Um, so we got a lot of content up there right now, and the last thing that I will plug is this 52.
00:21:01
4 odds culture hats when they put it back on my bald head.
00:21:06
Um, got this for my buddy Jeremy over at odd culture dot com, you check out their store.
00:21:13
There's the name of the, uh, sight.
00:21:16
Go check that out.
00:21:18
Pick up. They have some really nice merchandise.
00:21:20
Wow.
00:21:21
Obviously, I want the support for the breakdown by something with our logo.
00:21:25
Anything like that when we do have a 35% off sale going on on her store, definitely.
00:21:30
Check out our buddies.
00:21:31
Over at our culture, we do not have a hat on our Web store stuff.
00:21:36
You're in the, um, market for gambling or sports betting related hat.
00:21:41
Go check it out.
00:21:49
All right, let's run through Sunday pretty quickly.
00:21:51
I will do another stream tomorrow, talking Sunday, a little bit more in depth, but for now, I'll just do a quick five minutes.
00:21:59
5 10 minutes on, uh, tomorrow. Slate.
00:22:04
Tomorrow.
00:22:05
First game we have is, uh, New York guardians at the Seattle battle hawk that's going on at 3 p.m. Eastern.
00:22:13
Um, spread right now.
00:22:16
Seattle, Mont ST Louis Minus, which is wild.
00:22:22
Um, I've only made two bets so far this week.
00:22:25
Personally, I will be putting in a Seattle dragon's money line.
00:22:29
Um, I have that Plus 1 62 The best price said I'm seeing.
00:22:35
So that's what I'll play.
00:22:36
No.
00:22:37
Plus 1 65 on.
00:22:38
Ah, my bookie is available right now.
00:22:42
So if you want that Seattle, um, bonus play, uh, a little call that little half, you know, but, um, got overto my bookie.
00:22:51
They've got a plus 1 60 Just check for the half in a play.
00:23:03
Um, so you can go ahead and you can lock that in on my bookie shop around because the money line.
00:23:07
But you're gonna have a lot of, um, my book you might have.
00:23:13
Ah, I've heard may They just lowered the up.
00:23:16
Plus 1 55 Um, check your books.
00:23:20
Um, best option I got now is a plus 1 62 through a local.
00:23:26
Um, So I will you take that? +16 is available on, um, but online.
00:23:35
So if you want to check that one out.
00:23:37
That's an option.
00:23:38
I will throw a happy unit on the Seattle Dragon's money line.
00:23:41
Okay, Uh, so the other best that I have already made, uh, Tampa Bay Vipers plus seven. I grabbed that.
00:23:48
And then, um, I also have already bet the ah, would I take I took the Guardians plus, Ted, um, that numbers way to pick this The line opened at seven and 1/2 at seven and 1/2.
00:24:04
I think that is a pretty fair line that I think that it could be very close to that.
00:24:08
But at 10 you cannot be.
00:24:11
You can't lay 10 points with, um I know they are a great team, and I have a lot of respect for them.
00:24:18
And I have New York as my worst team in the league, but I don't think we're at a point for teens Are 10 point dogs this far into the season? Um, I haven't lined as six.
00:24:31
Um, I think that's a little too, um, nice to the Guardians.
00:24:39
I have them a three win teen.
00:24:42
Whereas I have a family with Battle hawk with 51 team side.
00:24:46
ST.
00:24:47
Louis going 500 on the season? Um, yeah, I just I don't see it being a 10 point spread.
00:24:52
Uh, so I will happily take plus 10 there, Um, from the data that goes into it as to why I have it projected as a plus six.
00:25:05
Uh, so ST Louis has they're not putting up a lot of points for their their points for play, their sixth in the league.
00:25:13
Whereas the Guardians are barely behind them at seven.
00:25:17
Um, there's a There's 1000.
00:25:22
There's 0.
00:25:23
3 different, and their points replied, So they their offenses in terms of when they score the score based on how many plays they run, they're almost identical.
00:25:35
Um, however, on the other side of things, it's that the Guardians are have one of the stronger opposing points per play.
00:25:43
Um, and the battle hawk, Actually, one of the weaker the battle Hawks have scored, um, a lot of points in their games, and their opponents have poured a lot of points in game.
00:25:53
So there opposing points for players not nearly as attractive, um, as the guardians.
00:26:00
Even though the Guardians did, uh, give up what was 27 last week um, so I have a line that six Still some noise in that? Um, realistically, I think it should be about seven.
00:26:16
So if I'm getting a plus 10 a New York audience plus, then I will take that all day and twice on Sunday.
00:26:23
Um, so I'll put that in the chat.
00:26:25
Um, yes, Guardian.
00:26:30
Um, that is my third place.
00:26:32
Uh, and I'll talk a little bit more in detail on it tomorrow.
00:26:35
Um, injury wise.
00:26:37
Um, I think this was a game.
00:26:41
No.
00:26:42
The next game is where I really had some injury news on it.
00:26:45
The New York Guardians.
00:26:46
I docked them half a point for having their starting right guard out.
00:26:50
I do.
00:26:51
ST Louis is a healthy, so no point taken off them there.
00:26:55
The second game tomorrow.
00:26:57
Tomorrow evening's game is going to be the D.
00:27:00
C defenders at the Los Angeles Wild Steppes.
00:27:03
Um, line is currently at hey, eight behalf.
00:27:08
It is moving.
00:27:09
That line is up to eight and 1/2 now in pinnacle.
00:27:12
Um, I haven't lined up six and 1/2 so with that, I would take the Wildcats, uh, take underdog because you're getting two extra points I'm not sure about that one.
00:27:24
I probably wouldn't make that bet.
00:27:27
Not at this time.
00:27:28
Because I need some more information on the Wildcats injury.
00:27:32
They have tons of probables.
00:27:35
If you go to the XFL website and you you can find where is it under news You can hate, uh, injury report.
00:27:43
The ice scoured through that.
00:27:46
If you scroll down to where, uh, l A is.
00:27:51
It looks like their entire lineup, um, is injured.
00:27:56
Kind of injured, banged up.
00:27:58
They had three peat made four people not even participate in practice.
00:28:02
They had 54 limited.
00:28:05
And then they have five more people who are full participants, but still lifted its probable.
00:28:09
I'm going to need a little bit more information on that game.
00:28:13
Um, I also want to see what the, um possession looks like for them to get a little bit of a better idea.
00:28:23
Um, but in the first game I started tomorrow, I definitely like the guardians of placental.
00:28:29
Highly recommend that that I outlined there.
00:28:33
I gave out Tampa Bay plus seven as my first play for today.
00:28:37
Um, I give a bonus play for half unit of Seattle Dragon's money line.
00:28:42
Um, I have that game mind four.
00:28:44
So I wouldn't be betting it again.
00:28:45
Spread the guardians I have at I blocked them in that plus 10 the New York Guardians.
00:28:52
I backed him lined at six.
00:28:53
So you have a four point.
00:28:55
My model is a four point edge on the Guardians.
00:28:58
Um, and then I have I would say, last game I have lined at six and 1/2.
00:29:06
Um, current spread is eight and 1/2 being given to extra point.
00:29:09
I would take the underdogs, but Elia Wildcats, But I haven't walked a thing.
00:29:14
And I'm gonna wait for some more information on that, check out temp possession and dig a little bit more into the staff.
00:29:21
Um, that's all I have for this, uh, for two, that I will be tweeting tweet out my place.
00:29:28
Um, about an hour before kickoff.
00:29:32
So for those of you who are we're sticking around to watch this.
00:29:36
I really appreciate it.
00:29:37
You're getting first access to my place.
00:29:40
So we have our play number one first play of the week, Tampa Bay plus seven.
00:29:46
Our play number two, which is a bonus play after you know, is Seattle Dragons.
00:29:57
Moneyline.
00:29:59
I got it at plus 1 60 I believe, Um, plus 1 62 You know that is good There.
00:30:10
And then, uh, for my play number three, I have the New York audience plus 10 when play number four theoretically would be, um the quixotic totals are still too high.
00:30:34
Unders are heading.
00:30:35
Okay. Ah, yes. So numb.
00:30:37
The let me pull up with circa opened with, um I love circus sports because they share all of their opening numbers on Twitter.
00:30:45
So let me check what they actually opened this week at, um, they open the vipers and Roughnecks at 47 a half.
00:30:54
Pinnacle, it's currently at 45 a half.
00:30:57
Um, that game, I think.
00:30:59
Could that probably come right in line with that? I think that that is actually a hairline.
00:31:05
Uh, circa opened the renegades in the dragon.
00:31:07
That 45.
00:31:09
That is too high of a line.
00:31:11
Even at 42 currently.
00:31:13
I'd probably still I would take the under on that one.
00:31:17
I think that that total is still too high.
00:31:19
I don't think across the board.
00:31:21
It is the case that total They're still too high I think we're going to see good opportunities to play on some total, um, guardians and battle.
00:31:32
Hawkes is 42 a half, Um, where that's what I opened up.
00:31:36
It is currently at 40 and 1/2.
00:31:40
I don't know.
00:31:41
I think that one will go over.
00:31:42
I think we saw a complete overreaction to the Guardian putting up a bag last week for their defense.
00:31:49
Still allowed 27 points.
00:31:51
Um, ST Louis has played from, like, slower moving in, but they still had 52 points in the game last week.
00:31:59
Um, I think that one will go over, and I think that that will kind of realign the market, too.
00:32:06
What I feel is more true about the totals as to whether they're too high or not.
00:32:12
Um, last game is the D C defenders and the Wildcats that opened at 45.
00:32:19
It is at 44 right now.
00:32:20
I think that's fairly online.
00:32:22
I think these he can absolutely run the score up on score on anyone.
00:32:26
It will be whether the Wildcats can, um, what they do on the scoreboard.
00:32:32
Um, last week they scored 18 points. Week one.
00:32:35
I think they scored 17.
00:32:36
So I think that one, depending on how strong the D C defense is again.
00:32:43
I think that that one is pretty spot this time.
00:32:46
So if I were to play a total, I would play the Roughnecks and the Vipers.
00:32:53
Take that under.
00:32:54
Um, I would take the renegades and the Dragons under 42.
00:33:00
I would take the Guardians and Battle Hawks over 40 and 1/2 on I would stay away from the D C defenders and Wild Captain.
00:33:09
Um, Well, too much noise right now with the old that really appreciate everyone for joining it.
00:33:16
I'm gonna sign off now.
00:33:17
Please follow me on Twitter at Gordon.
00:33:20
Ron Denham followed the breakdown sports at the underscore breakdown.
00:33:25
Check out her web site, www dot breakdown sport with a breakdown sports dot com.
00:33:30
Um, we have tons of content.
00:33:32
Three, um, 38 podcast.
00:33:36
Um, well, we'll have a new episode for NHL podcast today.
00:33:40
Go check out her feet, check out our website.
00:33:42
And, as always, I appreciate your support.
00:33:44
I'll be back tomorrow morning.
00:33:46
I'll run through the Sunday lineup More in depth.
00:33:49
All right.
00:33:50
Peace. Have a good one.
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theBRKDWN Sports - XFL Xperience Wk3: Picks & Analysis

1 Views
Jordan W @GordonVonDenim

Transcript hideup

00:00:07
morning, everyone, um, welcoming.
00:00:09
I'm gonna go ahead and share the stream.
00:00:12
Um, give me a moment while I shared too Twitter.
00:00:27
But everyone's having a good Saturday.
00:00:28
So far, we're gonna be talking about some extra felt.
00:00:31
Uh, give me one moment here while it share it.
00:00:33
Um, course my water.
00:00:36
So after that, well, all right.
00:00:53
Gotta stay hydrated.
00:00:54
Very important for there.
00:01:14
All right, so gonna go ahead and get started here.
00:01:17
Voice not doing that.
00:01:20
Went out for a night on the town last night.
00:01:22
Ended up singing *** and candy by market playground.
00:01:25
Um, gonna go ahead and get it started here.
00:01:28
We have two games today, Two games tomorrow.
00:01:31
I'll give you my lines on all four games.
00:01:34
I will do a stream again tomorrow.
00:01:36
I got no plans this weekend from actually gonna get some opportunity to watch all of these games.
00:01:42
Uh, I watched about half of the game last week.
00:01:44
I watched all of the games week on, um, trying to get back in to see how much I can see for ah, tonight.
00:01:53
All of the game site.
00:01:54
First game today is at 2 p.m. Eastern.
00:01:57
The roughnecks at the Tampa Bay and Vipers.
00:02:01
Um, And then after that, we've got, uh, Seattle.
00:02:05
We have the Dallas Renegades at Seattle Dragons.
00:02:08
Um, first name will be on ABC.
00:02:10
Second name's gonna be on Fox games for tomorrow.
00:02:13
We have the New York Guardians at the ST Louis Battle Hawk 3 p.m.
00:02:20
Eastern.
00:02:21
And then we have the D.
00:02:22
C defenders that the L A Wild Cats at 6 p.m. Eastern.
00:02:26
Tomorrow's games, they're on ESPN, and then that's one.
00:02:29
If you see my eyes moving back and forth live a two monitors set up.
00:02:33
So that is why my eyes are darting around.
00:02:39
Still waiting on one of my buddies are someone that we found on Twitter to publish some time of possession numbers.
00:02:45
Um, so my my numbers are a little raw right now as it's using week one time of possession data.
00:02:53
Everything else has been updated, um, line for today's games.
00:02:59
I'm using Pinnacle Pinnacles, a market making book.
00:03:03
So I feel that they are the best option when you're looking at sharing on your odds for whatever book you choose to, you will be maybe different.
00:03:13
Um, they could be the same.
00:03:15
So I definitely encourage shopping around to that.
00:03:19
Um, the Vipers are seven point underdog at home of the for today's 2 p.m. Eastern game.
00:03:28
Then the Seattle Dragons are four point underdogs home later this evening.
00:03:35
Um, taking on the Dallas Renegades.
00:03:37
Tomorrow's games We have the ST Louis Battle Hawks minus 10 favorites, huh? For their match up with the New York Gardens.
00:03:45
I mean, I know the Guardians can stink, but I don't know if they think that much on then.
00:03:50
Last game, we have the Los Angeles Wildcats as eight point underdogs.
00:03:55
Find a plus eight taking on D C defenders, um, those of the current line.
00:04:01
Um, Penny has the, um, Houston roughneck stamp of a Viper's game shaded towards Houston.
00:04:13
Um, Houston's minus seven is minus 1 14 Looks like they're taking a little bit more money on the Houston side.
00:04:21
Um, or they have confidence in, um there.
00:04:26
Judging that, Houston is more likely to cover it from this seven points, friend.
00:04:32
Oh, karaoke.
00:04:34
A man.
00:04:35
It'll really, really do the vocal court from damage.
00:04:37
I would sing it.
00:04:39
All right.
00:04:40
So, getting into the ex about, um, first game, the Roughnecks on the Vipers.
00:04:46
I have that game currently lined at a four point spread.
00:04:51
Um, I was very bullish on the Vipers to 30 year, but we're through two weeks.
00:04:58
They haven't scored enough into touchdown.
00:05:00
Um, that either need to change or something needs to happen.
00:05:04
Um, I do have The Roughnecks is one of my better teams in the league up.
00:05:09
So I think that the Roughnecks, right now I have them ranked is my second best team.
00:05:14
Whereas I have the Vipers, I present the fifth overall, Um, by my rating, Uh, so I think that Houston is considerably better team.
00:05:29
I just don't think that Tampa Bay should be a 7.
00:05:32
100 out of my projections from my model.
00:05:36
I have it lined to the Port point game.
00:05:38
Um, for the second game, I actually have a match right now on because my numbers are a little bit rough.
00:05:45
Um, without having update time of possession data.
00:05:48
As of right now, um, I am not playing the saliva line.
00:05:53
That four spread is currently Pinnacle has at four.
00:05:58
Um, so that would be a stay away game for me If I were to bet either side once I get my updated time of possession numbers, Theoretically, it could, uh, change the spread on that up to one full point.
00:06:16
Um, but for my projection, But we'll have to say what is going on there, Fleming, now that my video is really chopping, um, so I apologize for this.
00:06:31
I will try and get through the shredder quickly then so I can figure out what is going on with my camera.
00:06:40
All right, uh, with the Tampa Bay game.
00:06:44
So I have, as I mention, eyes that lined as a four point game is actually up to seven.
00:06:49
Um, I mentioned that I was bullish on the Vipers.
00:06:53
Vipers are without Nick Trousdale.
00:06:56
Who is? They're starting tight end.
00:06:58
They are without their starting center.
00:07:00
And Aaron Murray's out again.
00:07:02
Um, what that even means for offense.
00:07:05
Who hasn't really shown up? Not totally sure.
00:07:08
But I am.
00:07:09
Um I did take a They took a hit.
00:07:13
A two point to the spread hit from injury issues on the other side.
00:07:19
Houston is healthy.
00:07:20
It could be, um, So Houston is Ah, a little bit.
00:07:26
There are a lot healthier.
00:07:28
So that is good to say.
00:07:31
If you like the heat inside of things? Um, I have the Vipers projected as a four win team with reason.
00:07:40
And I have the Roughnecks projective 71 team.
00:07:44
I do not think that the Vipers can win this game to that.
00:07:47
I think we're gonna see the Viper start the season voluntary.
00:07:51
Um, my do***ents.
00:07:53
Really strange noises.
00:07:54
Gonna you? Good.
00:07:58
She needs water.
00:08:00
Um, so I have them.
00:08:02
A sizeable difference is there, but I think that Tampa Bay can keep this close.
00:08:07
Their pressures on the coaching staff pressures on the offense to figure this out to put some points on the board.
00:08:16
Um, so I think that they can keep this game a little bit closer.
00:08:19
I know Houston has done really well.
00:08:22
Houston's been pretty dominant in there games.
00:08:26
They've not really been running a lot of plays, which is interesting, but they're putting up on the season.
00:08:31
They have the most point.
00:08:32
Um, they have 65 points in the year, but they have the second lowest number of, um, plays run on offense, which is pretty crazy.
00:08:43
Um, the Houston has a score margin of 12 point, so they won their first game by 20 then one last week by four on Dhe.
00:08:52
Then on the other side of things, Tampa Bay lost by 20 their first week, and then they lost by eight last week.
00:09:00
So their score margin is a minus 14.
00:09:04
Their average score margin.
00:09:05
At this point into the season, we'll get the turnover battle.
00:09:08
I give the edge to Houston.
00:09:10
He has a positive turnover margin of plus two.
00:09:15
Vipers are minus.
00:09:16
One of the Vipers aren't necessarily having issues.
00:09:20
Um, keeping the ball. They did.
00:09:23
I think they had some tumbled last week, er a fumble when they really quickly pulled this up, they had three turnovers last week.
00:09:32
Um, we had an interception, um, and then, uh, turn over on down.
00:09:40
So that's where those came from and then taking a look at, um, statistic wise, I really like Houston.
00:09:51
I just don't think it's a seven point spread.
00:09:53
I don't think Tampa Bay the first game at home.
00:09:59
Ah, they played home in week one, but they're returning home after being on the road.
00:10:03
I think that they want to get the twin.
00:10:05
I think that having their center, their starting quarterback in the starting tight end who did does see a lot of targets.
00:10:13
Um, having them out is going to do them from harm, so I think that they'll keep a close.
00:10:19
But I do not think that they will, um, be able to win.
00:10:25
So play on the first game is going to be Tampa Bay plus seven.
00:10:31
We'll put that in the chat for those, um, joining now some number one Tampa Bay Vipers plus seven.
00:10:39
My projected threat on it is for a while.
00:10:42
I would take it down that far.
00:10:44
If you can get a seven, If you can get a seven and 1/2 I'm gonna check what is available in other places among seven.
00:10:52
A lot of seventh.
00:10:53
Um, so if you could get a seven and 1/2 go for, but I wouldn't take six and 1/2 years.
00:10:59
Seven readily available on basically every book that ties a bow on the first game.
00:11:07
Um, that will be going on in two hours.
00:11:11
I do math.
00:11:12
Yeah, that'll be a fun game.
00:11:15
Um, I have the vipers as the team might play.
00:11:19
Um, they did not pick up a win for May last week.
00:11:22
Um, as we went to and two against Spread with the model model is five and three on the year hoping to maintain that and build on it each week.
00:11:35
The longer weaker, the further we get this season stronger data is more data points.
00:11:40
Um, the less noise we're going to have in these numbers, So I'm just looking forward to getting that, uh, caught up.
00:11:48
Um, beginning next week, I will start projecting scores as well.
00:11:52
Um, I think that I'll have enough data at that point.
00:11:56
Um, right now it's still early.
00:11:59
We only have two games.
00:12:01
So basically, if you're projecting point you are, I'm just taking an average of two games, so that's not enough data there.
00:12:10
Um, I like, um, to get a little bit more meat on the bone for that second game.
00:12:16
As I mentioned Dallas renegades at the Seattle Dragon that is taking place at 5 p.m.
00:12:23
Tonight.
00:12:26
Red currently lined up four.
00:12:27
I have it projected it for, um, some notes that I have on these two teams.
00:12:34
The home team Seattle Dragons are without their starting left tackle.
00:12:38
They have a depth offensive lineman who is doubtful when I look at injuries.
00:12:43
I'm looking at it in the 25% tiles, so out.
00:12:48
Is there percent chance Doubtful.
00:12:50
25% chance of playing.
00:12:52
Um, then I have probable and questionable.
00:12:56
After that, they also have their one of their wide receivers out.
00:13:00
So I only hit it to the spread by half a point.
00:13:04
Nothing terribly major there.
00:13:06
I don't think that it will endure them.
00:13:10
They were extremely run heavy on last week.
00:13:13
They were actually were the most front heavy team.
00:13:16
I think I What about right here? They were the most run heavy team for last week.
00:13:25
They ran the ball 63% of their 49 place.
00:13:29
They didn't get a lot of plays them.
00:13:32
They don't move the ball all that quick, so they put the ball on the ground a lot, and they'll be looking to do the same.
00:13:41
Probably against Dallas.
00:13:44
Dallas goes the other one.
00:13:45
Dallas is all past Dallas injuries.
00:13:48
Look, if I've got anything here, Dallas is no major noteworthy injuries.
00:13:52
Um, they've got some players probable.
00:13:57
They have a defensive tackle who's out, but nothing major.
00:14:02
Ah, the wider fever, um, was probable.
00:14:05
But he was a full participant in practice on credit.
00:14:08
Um, so I wouldn't be concerned with that one.
00:14:13
Um, again, I have this lined up for so I'm not going to have a play against the spread on this one.
00:14:20
I think that it will be a close game.
00:14:22
Um, I do like, uh, I do like Oh, no, I think if I were to bet this, I'm I honestly would take Seattle.
00:14:38
Um, on the Moneyline, you get a map around plus 1 60 I think that's not a bad bet.
00:14:44
Maybe you throw half unit wager on that one because I think that if they can control the ball and play their style of game, um, I think that they could grind this out very low score again.
00:14:56
I think that this will be, um, this will probably be the one of the lower scoring game of the weekend.
00:15:02
I think tomorrow's matchup guardians the battle.
00:15:04
Hawkes is going to be really low scoring as well.
00:15:08
But I think that this if Seattle has the time of possession, they're holding onto the ball.
00:15:14
I think that they will be able to, uh, sweet without Dallas passing the ball.
00:15:20
65% of the time, so that creates a lot of opportunities for Seattle to get the ball.
00:15:26
They can force three and out if they can force turnovers, if they can get them.
00:15:32
If they could get Dallas after punt, the longer that they hold onto the ball, the better.
00:15:37
Last week, Seattle against Tampa Bay, the defense was on the field for almost the entire game.
00:15:43
They were on the field for 70 plays while their offense only played 50.
00:15:49
So not a lot there.
00:15:50
I think that for them to make this game and win at home as an underdog, they're gonna need to control the time of possession.
00:15:59
They're gonna need to run more plays, score margin, UH, their average score margins.
00:16:08
Right now, Dallas is about even 0.5.
00:16:12
So they lost by six and weak one.
00:16:15
They won like seven last week.
00:16:16
Um, Seattle, On the other hand, there's a minus two score margin.
00:16:20
They lost by 12 average score margin by 12 and weak one.
00:16:25
They won by eight last week.
00:16:27
Turnover battle.
00:16:28
You've got to give it to Seattle here.
00:16:30
Seattle forced a lot of turnovers with Tampa Bay last week.
00:16:35
Um, Seattle actually is the most.
00:16:36
Turnover has the highest turnover margin in the league with plus three.
00:16:42
Where in Dallas is a minus one.
00:16:44
Dallas turnover margin was even in week one, and it was minus one last week.
00:16:48
So they're minus one on the year with their turnover margin.
00:16:52
Okay, Okay.
00:16:55
They are taking a look at points per play.
00:16:58
Um, which is something that I like to see.
00:17:00
How quickly can a team score? How quickly are they able to make a comeback? And things of that nature? Houston actually leads the league.
00:17:09
Would there was a point for play They are averaging.
00:17:13
Okay, for everyone plays their scoring for everyone.
00:17:22
Plaque there.
00:17:23
4.6 point.
00:17:25
Um, so for which is pretty incredible.
00:17:27
That is way higher than anyone else in leak.
00:17:31
Uh, NFL, the points per play you're probably looking at, like a 0.
00:17:36
45 as league average.
00:17:39
Um, where you then have teams like, um, the guardians who are the But I mean, Tampa Bay's Lois.
00:17:49
I have Tampa Bay is having some point.
00:17:52
Um, however, last week, six of their points were from their defense.
00:17:56
Tampa Bay's point per play is 0.
00:17:59
8 So that is quite the anemic offense.
00:18:05
But Seattle is actually up there with Houston.
00:18:09
So that's why I think that, um, Seattle could do pretty well this week as home underdogs to Dallas.
00:18:16
Um, I have Seattle's points for play here at 0.3.
00:18:23
Looks good for third in the league, whereas Dallas is 0.
00:18:27
27 witches in league as faras.
00:18:31
What their defenses are allowing the Dallas defense is a little bit more stiff than, um, Seattle defense when you're looking at opposing points for play.
00:18:41
Um, Dallas in the third ranked team, third best in the league for opposing points.
00:18:46
Reply a while.
00:18:47
Seattle is number five.
00:18:50
Um, check it out.
00:18:51
We got some time of possession numbers yet.
00:18:55
Put it on Twitter know yet? Okay, Um, once I get those, I will throw those immediately into my, uh, my model, and I'll be ableto freak out really exactly what we've got.
00:19:10
So be able to take care of that.
00:19:13
Um, great.
00:19:17
So those are the two side a game? If you have any questions on any of those two games today, um, please let me know.
00:19:23
Uh, shoot in the chaps You can follow me on Twitter.
00:19:27
At act bored in von Denham.
00:19:29
Uh, Jordan, Just like my name is here.
00:19:34
Um, you can follow the breakdown sports at the underscore breakdown.
00:19:39
Um, I'm actually wearing a shirt straight off of our, um, merch store.
00:19:44
Um, which I will drop one for that.
00:19:47
Well, um, I'd really appreciate it, sport.
00:19:50
We actually have some new logos up onto our page, so it's looking pretty nice.
00:19:56
Um, come here.
00:20:05
Drop the link in the comment section.
00:20:07
Bit l y slash the breakdown store.
00:20:10
We've got stuff with our logos on it.
00:20:13
We have, like, funny sport sheriff's.
00:20:15
We have sport shirts for all different teams in different sports.
00:20:19
Um, this one says, make sure that everyone can see it.
00:20:25
Phone says I hedge my bet.
00:20:27
Then all I got was this lousy T shirt.
00:20:29
Um, which pretty funny.
00:20:31
Um, we've had it up.
00:20:32
We've sold a handful of these.
00:20:34
If you want this shirt, head over to our web store bit.
00:20:38
L y slash the breakdown store, check out our website.
00:20:42
The breakdown sports dot com.
00:20:45
Um, you've got We got soccer up there right now.
00:20:48
We got the hockey staff.
00:20:50
We have better upload some fantasy NFL football content.
00:20:55
Um, so we got a lot of content up there right now, and the last thing that I will plug is this 52.
00:21:01
4 odds culture hats when they put it back on my bald head.
00:21:06
Um, got this for my buddy Jeremy over at odd culture dot com, you check out their store.
00:21:13
There's the name of the, uh, sight.
00:21:16
Go check that out.
00:21:18
Pick up. They have some really nice merchandise.
00:21:20
Wow.
00:21:21
Obviously, I want the support for the breakdown by something with our logo.
00:21:25
Anything like that when we do have a 35% off sale going on on her store, definitely.
00:21:30
Check out our buddies.
00:21:31
Over at our culture, we do not have a hat on our Web store stuff.
00:21:36
You're in the, um, market for gambling or sports betting related hat.
00:21:41
Go check it out.
00:21:49
All right, let's run through Sunday pretty quickly.
00:21:51
I will do another stream tomorrow, talking Sunday, a little bit more in depth, but for now, I'll just do a quick five minutes.
00:21:59
5 10 minutes on, uh, tomorrow. Slate.
00:22:04
Tomorrow.
00:22:05
First game we have is, uh, New York guardians at the Seattle battle hawk that's going on at 3 p.m. Eastern.
00:22:13
Um, spread right now.
00:22:16
Seattle, Mont ST Louis Minus, which is wild.
00:22:22
Um, I've only made two bets so far this week.
00:22:25
Personally, I will be putting in a Seattle dragon's money line.
00:22:29
Um, I have that Plus 1 62 The best price said I'm seeing.
00:22:35
So that's what I'll play.
00:22:36
No.
00:22:37
Plus 1 65 on.
00:22:38
Ah, my bookie is available right now.
00:22:42
So if you want that Seattle, um, bonus play, uh, a little call that little half, you know, but, um, got overto my bookie.
00:22:51
They've got a plus 1 60 Just check for the half in a play.
00:23:03
Um, so you can go ahead and you can lock that in on my bookie shop around because the money line.
00:23:07
But you're gonna have a lot of, um, my book you might have.
00:23:13
Ah, I've heard may They just lowered the up.
00:23:16
Plus 1 55 Um, check your books.
00:23:20
Um, best option I got now is a plus 1 62 through a local.
00:23:26
Um, So I will you take that? +16 is available on, um, but online.
00:23:35
So if you want to check that one out.
00:23:37
That's an option.
00:23:38
I will throw a happy unit on the Seattle Dragon's money line.
00:23:41
Okay, Uh, so the other best that I have already made, uh, Tampa Bay Vipers plus seven. I grabbed that.
00:23:48
And then, um, I also have already bet the ah, would I take I took the Guardians plus, Ted, um, that numbers way to pick this The line opened at seven and 1/2 at seven and 1/2.
00:24:04
I think that is a pretty fair line that I think that it could be very close to that.
00:24:08
But at 10 you cannot be.
00:24:11
You can't lay 10 points with, um I know they are a great team, and I have a lot of respect for them.
00:24:18
And I have New York as my worst team in the league, but I don't think we're at a point for teens Are 10 point dogs this far into the season? Um, I haven't lined as six.
00:24:31
Um, I think that's a little too, um, nice to the Guardians.
00:24:39
I have them a three win teen.
00:24:42
Whereas I have a family with Battle hawk with 51 team side.
00:24:46
ST.
00:24:47
Louis going 500 on the season? Um, yeah, I just I don't see it being a 10 point spread.
00:24:52
Uh, so I will happily take plus 10 there, Um, from the data that goes into it as to why I have it projected as a plus six.
00:25:05
Uh, so ST Louis has they're not putting up a lot of points for their their points for play, their sixth in the league.
00:25:13
Whereas the Guardians are barely behind them at seven.
00:25:17
Um, there's a There's 1000.
00:25:22
There's 0.
00:25:23
3 different, and their points replied, So they their offenses in terms of when they score the score based on how many plays they run, they're almost identical.
00:25:35
Um, however, on the other side of things, it's that the Guardians are have one of the stronger opposing points per play.
00:25:43
Um, and the battle hawk, Actually, one of the weaker the battle Hawks have scored, um, a lot of points in their games, and their opponents have poured a lot of points in game.
00:25:53
So there opposing points for players not nearly as attractive, um, as the guardians.
00:26:00
Even though the Guardians did, uh, give up what was 27 last week um, so I have a line that six Still some noise in that? Um, realistically, I think it should be about seven.
00:26:16
So if I'm getting a plus 10 a New York audience plus, then I will take that all day and twice on Sunday.
00:26:23
Um, so I'll put that in the chat.
00:26:25
Um, yes, Guardian.
00:26:30
Um, that is my third place.
00:26:32
Uh, and I'll talk a little bit more in detail on it tomorrow.
00:26:35
Um, injury wise.
00:26:37
Um, I think this was a game.
00:26:41
No.
00:26:42
The next game is where I really had some injury news on it.
00:26:45
The New York Guardians.
00:26:46
I docked them half a point for having their starting right guard out.
00:26:50
I do.
00:26:51
ST Louis is a healthy, so no point taken off them there.
00:26:55
The second game tomorrow.
00:26:57
Tomorrow evening's game is going to be the D.
00:27:00
C defenders at the Los Angeles Wild Steppes.
00:27:03
Um, line is currently at hey, eight behalf.
00:27:08
It is moving.
00:27:09
That line is up to eight and 1/2 now in pinnacle.
00:27:12
Um, I haven't lined up six and 1/2 so with that, I would take the Wildcats, uh, take underdog because you're getting two extra points I'm not sure about that one.
00:27:24
I probably wouldn't make that bet.
00:27:27
Not at this time.
00:27:28
Because I need some more information on the Wildcats injury.
00:27:32
They have tons of probables.
00:27:35
If you go to the XFL website and you you can find where is it under news You can hate, uh, injury report.
00:27:43
The ice scoured through that.
00:27:46
If you scroll down to where, uh, l A is.
00:27:51
It looks like their entire lineup, um, is injured.
00:27:56
Kind of injured, banged up.
00:27:58
They had three peat made four people not even participate in practice.
00:28:02
They had 54 limited.
00:28:05
And then they have five more people who are full participants, but still lifted its probable.
00:28:09
I'm going to need a little bit more information on that game.
00:28:13
Um, I also want to see what the, um possession looks like for them to get a little bit of a better idea.
00:28:23
Um, but in the first game I started tomorrow, I definitely like the guardians of placental.
00:28:29
Highly recommend that that I outlined there.
00:28:33
I gave out Tampa Bay plus seven as my first play for today.
00:28:37
Um, I give a bonus play for half unit of Seattle Dragon's money line.
00:28:42
Um, I have that game mind four.
00:28:44
So I wouldn't be betting it again.
00:28:45
Spread the guardians I have at I blocked them in that plus 10 the New York Guardians.
00:28:52
I backed him lined at six.
00:28:53
So you have a four point.
00:28:55
My model is a four point edge on the Guardians.
00:28:58
Um, and then I have I would say, last game I have lined at six and 1/2.
00:29:06
Um, current spread is eight and 1/2 being given to extra point.
00:29:09
I would take the underdogs, but Elia Wildcats, But I haven't walked a thing.
00:29:14
And I'm gonna wait for some more information on that, check out temp possession and dig a little bit more into the staff.
00:29:21
Um, that's all I have for this, uh, for two, that I will be tweeting tweet out my place.
00:29:28
Um, about an hour before kickoff.
00:29:32
So for those of you who are we're sticking around to watch this.
00:29:36
I really appreciate it.
00:29:37
You're getting first access to my place.
00:29:40
So we have our play number one first play of the week, Tampa Bay plus seven.
00:29:46
Our play number two, which is a bonus play after you know, is Seattle Dragons.
00:29:57
Moneyline.
00:29:59
I got it at plus 1 60 I believe, Um, plus 1 62 You know that is good There.
00:30:10
And then, uh, for my play number three, I have the New York audience plus 10 when play number four theoretically would be, um the quixotic totals are still too high.
00:30:34
Unders are heading.
00:30:35
Okay. Ah, yes. So numb.
00:30:37
The let me pull up with circa opened with, um I love circus sports because they share all of their opening numbers on Twitter.
00:30:45
So let me check what they actually opened this week at, um, they open the vipers and Roughnecks at 47 a half.
00:30:54
Pinnacle, it's currently at 45 a half.
00:30:57
Um, that game, I think.
00:30:59
Could that probably come right in line with that? I think that that is actually a hairline.
00:31:05
Uh, circa opened the renegades in the dragon.
00:31:07
That 45.
00:31:09
That is too high of a line.
00:31:11
Even at 42 currently.
00:31:13
I'd probably still I would take the under on that one.
00:31:17
I think that that total is still too high.
00:31:19
I don't think across the board.
00:31:21
It is the case that total They're still too high I think we're going to see good opportunities to play on some total, um, guardians and battle.
00:31:32
Hawkes is 42 a half, Um, where that's what I opened up.
00:31:36
It is currently at 40 and 1/2.
00:31:40
I don't know.
00:31:41
I think that one will go over.
00:31:42
I think we saw a complete overreaction to the Guardian putting up a bag last week for their defense.
00:31:49
Still allowed 27 points.
00:31:51
Um, ST Louis has played from, like, slower moving in, but they still had 52 points in the game last week.
00:31:59
Um, I think that one will go over, and I think that that will kind of realign the market, too.
00:32:06
What I feel is more true about the totals as to whether they're too high or not.
00:32:12
Um, last game is the D C defenders and the Wildcats that opened at 45.
00:32:19
It is at 44 right now.
00:32:20
I think that's fairly online.
00:32:22
I think these he can absolutely run the score up on score on anyone.
00:32:26
It will be whether the Wildcats can, um, what they do on the scoreboard.
00:32:32
Um, last week they scored 18 points. Week one.
00:32:35
I think they scored 17.
00:32:36
So I think that one, depending on how strong the D C defense is again.
00:32:43
I think that that one is pretty spot this time.
00:32:46
So if I were to play a total, I would play the Roughnecks and the Vipers.
00:32:53
Take that under.
00:32:54
Um, I would take the renegades and the Dragons under 42.
00:33:00
I would take the Guardians and Battle Hawks over 40 and 1/2 on I would stay away from the D C defenders and Wild Captain.
00:33:09
Um, Well, too much noise right now with the old that really appreciate everyone for joining it.
00:33:16
I'm gonna sign off now.
00:33:17
Please follow me on Twitter at Gordon.
00:33:20
Ron Denham followed the breakdown sports at the underscore breakdown.
00:33:25
Check out her web site, www dot breakdown sport with a breakdown sports dot com.
00:33:30
Um, we have tons of content.
00:33:32
Three, um, 38 podcast.
00:33:36
Um, well, we'll have a new episode for NHL podcast today.
00:33:40
Go check out her feet, check out our website.
00:33:42
And, as always, I appreciate your support.
00:33:44
I'll be back tomorrow morning.
00:33:46
I'll run through the Sunday lineup More in depth.
00:33:49
All right.
00:33:50
Peace. Have a good one.

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