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00:00:07
Hey, what's up, everyone? Rexy, switch here down to break down this beautiful college hoops sleeps we got on Saturday.
00:00:14
You can follow me on Twitter are east underscore Easy with Izzy and you can follow the breakdown That's at the underscore Beer. Okay.
00:00:24
D w n for all your gambling and sports insights needs The breakdown is the company that I write and contribute Sports picks and sports contents for today.
00:00:33
We got Jordan.
00:00:34
He's gonna be going live on SportsCastr soon.
00:00:37
Um, toe for his XFL, please. And previews.
00:00:40
Jordan makes a model for XFL.
00:00:42
So XFL is betting your thing.
00:00:44
Make sure to give him a follow on a SportsCastr.
00:00:47
She can get his insights for week three.
00:00:51
So my SportsCastr called troops picks are three and three on the weak.
00:00:54
And today, since we got such a largely I got five place read today.
00:01:00
They're all spread out throughout the day only to overlap.
00:01:02
So we got please starting at noon and about 40 minutes.
00:01:06
And then our last one tips off at nine times out of action for you throughout the day.
00:01:10
Um, like I said, follow me on Twitter.
00:01:12
If I have any more ads start the day since we have a big sleep.
00:01:15
If I see a live line or 1/2 time line that looks, ah, tempting, I'm probably gonna fire on it.
00:01:21
So, like I said, you can follow me on Twitter are East Underscore Easy with Izzy.
00:01:27
So let's just jump into the pics.
00:01:28
So my first pick is the one that tips off at noon today.
00:01:32
That's when two Lane travels to UCF.
00:01:34
This is my small mid major game of the day.
00:01:36
All the rest come from the bigger conferences.
00:01:39
We got the line listed at minus seven for UCF in the total at 160 136.5.
00:01:48
You're gonna see an average tempo game here.
00:01:50
No team likes to run or push it too fast, or you'll see.
00:01:53
That's why you got the total at an average.
00:01:55
Number 2 a.m.
00:01:57
loves to shoot from the perimeter and ah, unluckily for them.
00:02:00
That's for UCF defense, the best and to ancient 41% overall from the field.
00:02:08
So that's not great by any means.
00:02:10
Now you're traveling on the road down to UCF, who's above average defensive team.
00:02:14
You could see to lay Not you could see two Lane struggling to break 60 points today.
00:02:21
Um, re players to watch for UCF, our dairy and green.
00:02:25
And for too late or too, Shawn Hightower and Kristin Thompson.
00:02:28
None of these guys are that are that high usage of volume players? Um, but one that I have the most value to the spread is Ah, Dairy and Green Day and Green.
00:02:38
I have is worth about three points to the spread, so he's your player to watch for today.
00:02:43
This play is purely on my model that I do.
00:02:46
I have a couch basketball model that I run every day, and my motto has just projected at 133 points.
00:02:53
So I'm taking the under in this game.
00:02:55
Uh, just because I see that there's a lot of value and without ah fast tempo game, I think, uh, I think this values D Under and with Tulane struggling to break 60 and UCF scoring 70 max, I see this soaring under the total of 137 or 1 36.
00:03:11
5 So the others my first best bet for the day.
00:03:16
My second best bet for the day is the game between nova At eggs, a bird nova travels to eggs a ver lines listed out of pick or a nova minus one, depending where you look and you got another total at 136.
00:03:29
This one projects to be a much slower pace tempo game than the two lane UCF game.
00:03:34
But this the reason why this totals at the same number is because, uh, no has been crazy.
00:03:39
Hot from three, if you haven't seen their last two games Nervous shooting 35 from 62 from the three, which is 56.5%.
00:03:47
Are they gonna be able to keep this up? Um, we don't We're not too sure just because that's an incredible rate to be shooting from three.
00:03:54
But, uh, if you've been watching over the past few seasons, you seen jays rates Teams get in this group, especially later on in the season where they're just deadly from three.
00:04:03
So this could fall.
00:04:05
Uh, exhibit Could, uh, Xavier is ah, very competent at defending the three.
00:04:12
The fourth best team and defending it.
00:04:14
So you got a quality matchup here.
00:04:15
So if you see No, But come back to Earth.
00:04:18
It could be today addict savior.
00:04:20
But I'm one thing that put its savior at a disadvantage is on the other side exit.
00:04:25
You're just not shoot well from three on their own 30% for the season.
00:04:29
So that's gonna put them at a major disadvantage if Nova gets 10 to 12 made threes, which is usually their minimum for game.
00:04:37
Um, and egg Xavier, it only gets 4 to 5.
00:04:39
You're gonna see a large discrepancy there.
00:04:41
Ah, and you can.
00:04:42
And if you go back throughout the season and look at nervous box words and ah, teams that struggle to shoot the three against them, especially when they shot under the 40% Nova hasn't had an issue winning those games.
00:04:56
Um, so it sounds like I'm leaning towards no.
00:04:59
Then, yes, that's just out of your re betting is the new of a money line.
00:05:02
But just to give you one last thing of two last reasons why I think the key factors and I think Nova's gonna win out right at the road at Examiner, is no Vista, Maura deeper, well around the team.
00:05:13
But winning Egg Xavier's, uh, very, very tough but I think Nova has the players to do it being collapse v are your players to watch for Nova and ah, the main factor.
00:05:24
Why think noble pulls out? This one is because of Conner.
00:05:27
Gillaspie.
00:05:28
If you've been watching him over his past 5 to 10 games, he's playing above his norm right now is this is new Norm for the rest of the season.
00:05:35
Will have Thio keep watching to find out, but his defensive ability, where it wasn't too great throughout the season, he's become less of a liability, and he's been hot from three.
00:05:46
So that's what has led Nova on this, uh, thoroughly teas and run.
00:05:50
So I think my best bet on this one is Ah, no, but money line my third best of the day.
00:05:57
We get some SEC basketball in here.
00:06:00
This is where Miss ST Travels to Texas A and then you get the line list that minus four for Miss State and ah, the total at 1 30 This is our slowest tempo game of the day today.
00:06:13
Texas A and then, uh, this seems like it's a very nice sell high spot for Texas A and M.
00:06:19
They're coming off wins against Georgia and Alabama to two of the teams that are in contention in the SEC.
00:06:26
Not the top teams, but two very quality teams s.
00:06:29
So this is a game where I think Texas A and M may come back down to Earth at home.
00:06:35
Texas A and M uh, Buzz Williams squad.
00:06:37
If you haven't watching the season, they have struggled issue, and they're very inefficient shooting the ball to make matters worth worse or to prove that there were shooting the ball.
00:06:48
Dave the 12 were shooting percent in the nation, Um, and then let's.
00:06:51
And then you would say, Oh, maybe that they're at whom they might get a bump for shooting at home.
00:06:56
That's not the case at all.
00:06:57
They shoot the same exact percentage they do on the season at home.
00:07:01
So Texas A and then with the first season with Buzz Williams, the often seems to be, ah, struggling pretty, uh, strong.
00:07:09
Now on the other side with Miss ST, you got a team that's extremely efficient on offense and defense, which provides him with a major advantage here, I think, just because of Texas A and M's recency bias and their two previous winds and the public buying into Texas A and M a little bit more and off.
00:07:26
Buzz Williams credibility.
00:07:28
That's why he only see Miss ST, uh, as a minus four here.
00:07:32
So I think this is a nice spot.
00:07:34
The lease, um, points on the road laying points on the road is never fun.
00:07:37
But I think this is the spot where ah, Miss Tate has the chance to cover this because my model has this as misty as eight point favorites instead of four.
00:07:46
So this is another pure value play, or Mayan, where I think a mistake can win by 10 plus my fourth pick of the day and my and my favorite picks on Saturdays.
00:08:00
Uh, if you if you're just getting to know me, my two favorite sports to bet our college football in college basketball and, uh, I usually have weekly hungry dogs run faster, which is my money line underdog of the day.
00:08:13
Um, so last Faraday's hungry dog hit.
00:08:16
That was Maryland.
00:08:17
You could see that on my twitter.
00:08:18
I have that posted, if you want to check that out.
00:08:20
But today we got Florida at Kentucky, which features my fever Underdog could pull out the outright win.
00:08:27
You got Kentucky listed at minus four and 1/2 favorites and another game total about 136.5.
00:08:34
I think this is a nice value, a nice price indicators, Moneyline and completely evenly matched up game where I don't think any team holds a clear cut advantage for Kentucky's Definitely has the home advantage here in Florida has struggled slightly on the road, but given what Vegas contributes for home points with just 3 to 3 and 1/2 this is just saying that Kentucky's only one point better than Florida, so that that leads me to believe at plus 1 75 Florida shows a lot of value.
00:09:04
Kentucky's extremely hot, though, right now, So that's one because of concern for for why Florida? Cohen out right here.
00:09:11
There.
00:09:12
Enough.
00:09:13
I being winning streets and Nick Richards is just playing out of his mind right now.
00:09:15
He's getting like 14 points a game, close to seven rebounds and close to four blocks of the games of issues controlling and dominating Pete Florida's got somebody's that can contend with him in the peak, So, uh, they that they definitely may struggle in the paint today, but I don't think it should be a major disadvantage here.
00:09:34
Um, one thing that could play against Kentucky and Nick Richards today is you've seen this young squad, Richards.
00:09:41
Is it young? But you've seen Maxie and other players on the team struggle to be foul prone.
00:09:46
So if you get the foul trouble against the Gators, they're going to make you pay for that.
00:09:50
And especially with this evenly matched up sides.
00:09:53
If you get Ah Richards or Maxie out, Bert, tend the 15 minutes of the game.
00:09:58
Dude, Early foul trouble.
00:09:59
Florida has a chance to ah, look real strong and pull out this outright.
00:10:04
Um, we're gonna compare how that thes teams shot selections are for this using so far.
00:10:09
Ah, Florida shoots completely normal and balance from the field.
00:10:13
They don't have a strong um, they'll have a strong a strong advantage from three middle aged or close down pretty evenly balance out.
00:10:22
So that's gonna make Kentucky work on ah, all facets on defense.
00:10:27
Kentucky loves to hit from the inside in the midrange, but we all know that they can fall in love with the threesome games, and they just start chucking threes.
00:10:34
They're not a spectacular three point team this season, so I look for them to really start dominating in the paint today if Kentucky wants a chance to cover this four and 1/2.
00:10:45
Um, my model currently only has Kentucky as one and 1/2 point favorites, so I definitely play the points Florida at four and 1/2 if you don't feel confident to back them on the Moneyline.
00:10:55
But I'm taking them on the Moneyline That plus 1 75 today for my underdog play of the day, my last best bet of the day, and I will recap all five of my pics if you joined extremely is Ah, Oregon at Arizona.
00:11:10
We got Arizona as a four and 1/2 point favorite in the total at 1 39 and 1/2 yet to rank top 25 squads in the Pac 12 coming in here.
00:11:20
Oregon is coming off that loss this week, while Arizona looked very strong in the last game, covering that 10 and 1/2 point spread.
00:11:27
So you have a team coming in on with known momentum coming against a team that does have the momentum.
00:11:33
So, uh, it's interesting just to see Arizona's four and 1/2 point favorites.
00:11:38
But we've seen Dana Altman and Oregon squad play at a top five team in the country this year.
00:11:43
So that's one reason um, organ is, ah, team.
00:11:47
That the struggle on the road compared to Arizona's home court advantage is Orin shoots 9% worse on the road than they do at whom we saw it.
00:11:56
So we saw that in their last game, where Oregon struggled to break 65 points.
00:12:00
So I wouldn't be surprised again if Oregon has another port for shooting, uh, performance.
00:12:06
And when you're not shooting, particularly all that great right now, it's not great when you're playing, It's Arizona home.
00:12:12
Arizona.
00:12:13
Like I said, it's the 13th best home team in the country.
00:12:16
So the ceiling for Arizona and the floor for Oregon, I think, provides a lot of value at this lineup.
00:12:21
Minus four and 1/2 on this total consume low, with only it being at 139 and 1/2 as both teams or top 15 inefficiency in the country.
00:12:33
But this efficiency comes from their slower pace and working the clock.
00:12:37
Both of these teams usually don't shoot before 15 to 18 seconds.
00:12:41
Uh, if not into the twenties, for majority of their possession.
00:12:43
So you see them working the clock and making the other team work out.
00:12:47
Work on defense, Um, as both teams air top 15 and offense efficiency, organise the significantly weaker team on the defense than Arizona.
00:12:58
Arizona's a top 25 team on defense.
00:13:01
So, like I said, if Oregon has the shooting was today, Arizona has a chance to win this game by time.
00:13:10
Um, look for Zeke Nagy and Chase Jeeter toe finish a lot of second chance points today.
00:13:17
Oregon, if you haven't been watching them, cleaning the defensive glass has been something that they've struggled in some games.
00:13:23
And when you see them failing to clean the defensive glass, they've lost outright and have been covered those games.
00:13:29
So that's why I think this is another value play with my model having ah, Arizona favorite by nine points in this game.
00:13:38
So just it since it's college basketball and we'll tuck in talking hoops.
00:13:43
I got other three games to highly, I don't have many bets on these schemes.
00:13:46
But these air three games, I think you should watch to, uh, 3 to 4 games that you should watch today.
00:13:52
The first one's obviously the where college GameDay is and tips off in about 27 minutes.
00:13:57
That's when Kansas goes to Baylor.
00:13:59
I really wanted to get action in this game and start early, but since I found the play on that two lane UCF game, I'm just gonna have, ah, multiple screens up the watch these games and just sit back and enjoy Kansas going to Baylor if I see something at half time, like I said, follow me on Twitter.
00:14:15
I might play something at halftime, but I think this is a game that you should just sit back and watch if your hoops junkie our second game, is where I kind of want to get a barometer feel on this squad.
00:14:27
Michigan's travelling to Purdue, Michigan, starting to show small signs of their early seasick season success where they were dominant in the early season tournaments if they're able to have a beat Rutgers earlier this week.
00:14:40
So if they're able Thio pull off a win after do, which is one of the toughest home courts in the country.
00:14:46
I think this could be signs to say Michigan's gonna be legit and could be an actual contender in the March Madness.
00:14:53
Uh, at the beginning of the season there a clear cut contender that halfway through, they faded off.
00:14:59
And where are they even going to make the tournament contention? And now looks like Juwan Howard's got this squad back in a good group.
00:15:06
Um, so I think Michigan, if they're able to beat off, to do, they're going to be a team to continue to watch.
00:15:11
Um, one game.
00:15:14
That's, uh, good to watch.
00:15:16
It's, um, maybe a little bit lower level game.
00:15:18
But NC State's been getting a lot of love after their 20 point win against Duke.
00:15:23
Now, after that win, there still one and 1/2 point dogs F f F S u.
00:15:28
So could we see another home upset in the making? I know 21 a half point, so it's not a huge upset, but let's see if n.
00:15:35
C State has a letdown, spot this game or if they come out firing again and make it Ah, two wins against Duke and F S U back to back.
00:15:42
That's gonna put a lot of credibility to this squad.
00:15:45
Come March time since most of the games I previewed today, we're all on their 131 140 or 136 points to games.
00:15:55
If you're really looking for high paced high point games, you got L S U vs South Carolina and Gonzaga.
00:16:02
BYU for your options for games are just gonna be flying up and down the court.
00:16:06
Both of these totals Aaron the one forties, if not one fifties.
00:16:10
So if you want to watch them fast paced basketball, these air your games to watch.
00:16:15
So to recap my best bets for the day my 1st 1 is to Lane UCF under 1 37 I don't think to a break 60 points, and I don't think UCF break 70 points today, so that shows that I have about a two least five points of value to the under.
00:16:34
So I think that's the value play there.
00:16:37
When explains the new of the Moneyline Nova shooting outrageous from three right now.
00:16:42
Is that going to continue? I'm not too sure about that, but, um, exhibitors, a team that shoots that that does not shoot well from three.
00:16:49
So when they overplay squads that shoot well from three, nobody usually wins.
00:16:53
And there's with this only being at a pick or a minus one for Nova.
00:16:57
I'm just backing the money line.
00:16:59
My next game is Miss ST minus four and 1/2.
00:17:02
I think this is a sell high spot on Texas A and M, so that's where I have that.
00:17:06
Plus, my model has Miss State as closer to eight point favorites.
00:17:11
So I think this is a good spot to lay some points on the road.
00:17:14
You got to be careful doing that.
00:17:15
But this is the spot where I see it, Um, with my outright and my money, my hungry dog runs faster.
00:17:22
Money lying underdog.
00:17:23
I like the Gators today at plus 1 75 I'm in the game.
00:17:27
That's evenly matched up where I think the Gators are going to try to get Maxie and Richards and the foul trouble.
00:17:33
I think Florida is a great value play.
00:17:36
Um, take the points if you don't want it, if you don't think they're gonna win out right, because if you can get them at morning, my plus four and 1/2 or plus five.
00:17:43
I think that's enough for you to get on a Florida side that I have it at one and 1/2 points for Kentucky and the team wearing no squad holds a clear advantage.
00:17:54
My last best bet of the day is Arizona minus four and 1/2.
00:17:58
The ceiling for Arizona and the floor for Oregon is where I have this advantage.
00:18:03
I think Arizona has the chance to win this game by 10.
00:18:06
They are young and have been somewhat inconsistent.
00:18:10
But at home, that has not been the case.
00:18:11
They've been a top 15 team at home this season.
00:18:15
That's why I like Arizona minus four and 1/2.
00:18:18
Um, I have all these Twitter and tweet soccer and other places throughout the day.
00:18:25
So if you wanna get the rest of my basketball sleep, I add any games other than these five place.
00:18:29
Follow me on Twitter at our East underscore easy with Izzy and follow the breakdown.
00:18:35
That's what I provide and content for and ah, Jordan from the breakdown.
00:18:41
Who's the boss? It is going to go live on, SportsCastr Leader said.
00:18:45
The Twitter for that is at the underscore PRK d w end to get all of our content need.
00:18:51
But like I said, check out Jordan on.
00:18:53
Ah, SportsCastr hit me up if you want his, um, handle for that.
00:18:58
But he has his XFL preview today where he runs a model for that.
00:19:01
So make sure to check out his place for the, uh for today.
00:19:05
Let's get some money today and let's enjoy some hoops. See you.
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NCAAB 2/22 Picks from Rex @the_BRKDWN

7 Views
Rex Eastwood @REast_Eazy

Transcript hideup

00:00:07
Hey, what's up, everyone? Rexy, switch here down to break down this beautiful college hoops sleeps we got on Saturday.
00:00:14
You can follow me on Twitter are east underscore Easy with Izzy and you can follow the breakdown That's at the underscore Beer. Okay.
00:00:24
D w n for all your gambling and sports insights needs The breakdown is the company that I write and contribute Sports picks and sports contents for today.
00:00:33
We got Jordan.
00:00:34
He's gonna be going live on SportsCastr soon.
00:00:37
Um, toe for his XFL, please. And previews.
00:00:40
Jordan makes a model for XFL.
00:00:42
So XFL is betting your thing.
00:00:44
Make sure to give him a follow on a SportsCastr.
00:00:47
She can get his insights for week three.
00:00:51
So my SportsCastr called troops picks are three and three on the weak.
00:00:54
And today, since we got such a largely I got five place read today.
00:01:00
They're all spread out throughout the day only to overlap.
00:01:02
So we got please starting at noon and about 40 minutes.
00:01:06
And then our last one tips off at nine times out of action for you throughout the day.
00:01:10
Um, like I said, follow me on Twitter.
00:01:12
If I have any more ads start the day since we have a big sleep.
00:01:15
If I see a live line or 1/2 time line that looks, ah, tempting, I'm probably gonna fire on it.
00:01:21
So, like I said, you can follow me on Twitter are East Underscore Easy with Izzy.
00:01:27
So let's just jump into the pics.
00:01:28
So my first pick is the one that tips off at noon today.
00:01:32
That's when two Lane travels to UCF.
00:01:34
This is my small mid major game of the day.
00:01:36
All the rest come from the bigger conferences.
00:01:39
We got the line listed at minus seven for UCF in the total at 160 136.5.
00:01:48
You're gonna see an average tempo game here.
00:01:50
No team likes to run or push it too fast, or you'll see.
00:01:53
That's why you got the total at an average.
00:01:55
Number 2 a.m.
00:01:57
loves to shoot from the perimeter and ah, unluckily for them.
00:02:00
That's for UCF defense, the best and to ancient 41% overall from the field.
00:02:08
So that's not great by any means.
00:02:10
Now you're traveling on the road down to UCF, who's above average defensive team.
00:02:14
You could see to lay Not you could see two Lane struggling to break 60 points today.
00:02:21
Um, re players to watch for UCF, our dairy and green.
00:02:25
And for too late or too, Shawn Hightower and Kristin Thompson.
00:02:28
None of these guys are that are that high usage of volume players? Um, but one that I have the most value to the spread is Ah, Dairy and Green Day and Green.
00:02:38
I have is worth about three points to the spread, so he's your player to watch for today.
00:02:43
This play is purely on my model that I do.
00:02:46
I have a couch basketball model that I run every day, and my motto has just projected at 133 points.
00:02:53
So I'm taking the under in this game.
00:02:55
Uh, just because I see that there's a lot of value and without ah fast tempo game, I think, uh, I think this values D Under and with Tulane struggling to break 60 and UCF scoring 70 max, I see this soaring under the total of 137 or 1 36.
00:03:11
5 So the others my first best bet for the day.
00:03:16
My second best bet for the day is the game between nova At eggs, a bird nova travels to eggs a ver lines listed out of pick or a nova minus one, depending where you look and you got another total at 136.
00:03:29
This one projects to be a much slower pace tempo game than the two lane UCF game.
00:03:34
But this the reason why this totals at the same number is because, uh, no has been crazy.
00:03:39
Hot from three, if you haven't seen their last two games Nervous shooting 35 from 62 from the three, which is 56.5%.
00:03:47
Are they gonna be able to keep this up? Um, we don't We're not too sure just because that's an incredible rate to be shooting from three.
00:03:54
But, uh, if you've been watching over the past few seasons, you seen jays rates Teams get in this group, especially later on in the season where they're just deadly from three.
00:04:03
So this could fall.
00:04:05
Uh, exhibit Could, uh, Xavier is ah, very competent at defending the three.
00:04:12
The fourth best team and defending it.
00:04:14
So you got a quality matchup here.
00:04:15
So if you see No, But come back to Earth.
00:04:18
It could be today addict savior.
00:04:20
But I'm one thing that put its savior at a disadvantage is on the other side exit.
00:04:25
You're just not shoot well from three on their own 30% for the season.
00:04:29
So that's gonna put them at a major disadvantage if Nova gets 10 to 12 made threes, which is usually their minimum for game.
00:04:37
Um, and egg Xavier, it only gets 4 to 5.
00:04:39
You're gonna see a large discrepancy there.
00:04:41
Ah, and you can.
00:04:42
And if you go back throughout the season and look at nervous box words and ah, teams that struggle to shoot the three against them, especially when they shot under the 40% Nova hasn't had an issue winning those games.
00:04:56
Um, so it sounds like I'm leaning towards no.
00:04:59
Then, yes, that's just out of your re betting is the new of a money line.
00:05:02
But just to give you one last thing of two last reasons why I think the key factors and I think Nova's gonna win out right at the road at Examiner, is no Vista, Maura deeper, well around the team.
00:05:13
But winning Egg Xavier's, uh, very, very tough but I think Nova has the players to do it being collapse v are your players to watch for Nova and ah, the main factor.
00:05:24
Why think noble pulls out? This one is because of Conner.
00:05:27
Gillaspie.
00:05:28
If you've been watching him over his past 5 to 10 games, he's playing above his norm right now is this is new Norm for the rest of the season.
00:05:35
Will have Thio keep watching to find out, but his defensive ability, where it wasn't too great throughout the season, he's become less of a liability, and he's been hot from three.
00:05:46
So that's what has led Nova on this, uh, thoroughly teas and run.
00:05:50
So I think my best bet on this one is Ah, no, but money line my third best of the day.
00:05:57
We get some SEC basketball in here.
00:06:00
This is where Miss ST Travels to Texas A and then you get the line list that minus four for Miss State and ah, the total at 1 30 This is our slowest tempo game of the day today.
00:06:13
Texas A and then, uh, this seems like it's a very nice sell high spot for Texas A and M.
00:06:19
They're coming off wins against Georgia and Alabama to two of the teams that are in contention in the SEC.
00:06:26
Not the top teams, but two very quality teams s.
00:06:29
So this is a game where I think Texas A and M may come back down to Earth at home.
00:06:35
Texas A and M uh, Buzz Williams squad.
00:06:37
If you haven't watching the season, they have struggled issue, and they're very inefficient shooting the ball to make matters worth worse or to prove that there were shooting the ball.
00:06:48
Dave the 12 were shooting percent in the nation, Um, and then let's.
00:06:51
And then you would say, Oh, maybe that they're at whom they might get a bump for shooting at home.
00:06:56
That's not the case at all.
00:06:57
They shoot the same exact percentage they do on the season at home.
00:07:01
So Texas A and then with the first season with Buzz Williams, the often seems to be, ah, struggling pretty, uh, strong.
00:07:09
Now on the other side with Miss ST, you got a team that's extremely efficient on offense and defense, which provides him with a major advantage here, I think, just because of Texas A and M's recency bias and their two previous winds and the public buying into Texas A and M a little bit more and off.
00:07:26
Buzz Williams credibility.
00:07:28
That's why he only see Miss ST, uh, as a minus four here.
00:07:32
So I think this is a nice spot.
00:07:34
The lease, um, points on the road laying points on the road is never fun.
00:07:37
But I think this is the spot where ah, Miss Tate has the chance to cover this because my model has this as misty as eight point favorites instead of four.
00:07:46
So this is another pure value play, or Mayan, where I think a mistake can win by 10 plus my fourth pick of the day and my and my favorite picks on Saturdays.
00:08:00
Uh, if you if you're just getting to know me, my two favorite sports to bet our college football in college basketball and, uh, I usually have weekly hungry dogs run faster, which is my money line underdog of the day.
00:08:13
Um, so last Faraday's hungry dog hit.
00:08:16
That was Maryland.
00:08:17
You could see that on my twitter.
00:08:18
I have that posted, if you want to check that out.
00:08:20
But today we got Florida at Kentucky, which features my fever Underdog could pull out the outright win.
00:08:27
You got Kentucky listed at minus four and 1/2 favorites and another game total about 136.5.
00:08:34
I think this is a nice value, a nice price indicators, Moneyline and completely evenly matched up game where I don't think any team holds a clear cut advantage for Kentucky's Definitely has the home advantage here in Florida has struggled slightly on the road, but given what Vegas contributes for home points with just 3 to 3 and 1/2 this is just saying that Kentucky's only one point better than Florida, so that that leads me to believe at plus 1 75 Florida shows a lot of value.
00:09:04
Kentucky's extremely hot, though, right now, So that's one because of concern for for why Florida? Cohen out right here.
00:09:11
There.
00:09:12
Enough.
00:09:13
I being winning streets and Nick Richards is just playing out of his mind right now.
00:09:15
He's getting like 14 points a game, close to seven rebounds and close to four blocks of the games of issues controlling and dominating Pete Florida's got somebody's that can contend with him in the peak, So, uh, they that they definitely may struggle in the paint today, but I don't think it should be a major disadvantage here.
00:09:34
Um, one thing that could play against Kentucky and Nick Richards today is you've seen this young squad, Richards.
00:09:41
Is it young? But you've seen Maxie and other players on the team struggle to be foul prone.
00:09:46
So if you get the foul trouble against the Gators, they're going to make you pay for that.
00:09:50
And especially with this evenly matched up sides.
00:09:53
If you get Ah Richards or Maxie out, Bert, tend the 15 minutes of the game.
00:09:58
Dude, Early foul trouble.
00:09:59
Florida has a chance to ah, look real strong and pull out this outright.
00:10:04
Um, we're gonna compare how that thes teams shot selections are for this using so far.
00:10:09
Ah, Florida shoots completely normal and balance from the field.
00:10:13
They don't have a strong um, they'll have a strong a strong advantage from three middle aged or close down pretty evenly balance out.
00:10:22
So that's gonna make Kentucky work on ah, all facets on defense.
00:10:27
Kentucky loves to hit from the inside in the midrange, but we all know that they can fall in love with the threesome games, and they just start chucking threes.
00:10:34
They're not a spectacular three point team this season, so I look for them to really start dominating in the paint today if Kentucky wants a chance to cover this four and 1/2.
00:10:45
Um, my model currently only has Kentucky as one and 1/2 point favorites, so I definitely play the points Florida at four and 1/2 if you don't feel confident to back them on the Moneyline.
00:10:55
But I'm taking them on the Moneyline That plus 1 75 today for my underdog play of the day, my last best bet of the day, and I will recap all five of my pics if you joined extremely is Ah, Oregon at Arizona.
00:11:10
We got Arizona as a four and 1/2 point favorite in the total at 1 39 and 1/2 yet to rank top 25 squads in the Pac 12 coming in here.
00:11:20
Oregon is coming off that loss this week, while Arizona looked very strong in the last game, covering that 10 and 1/2 point spread.
00:11:27
So you have a team coming in on with known momentum coming against a team that does have the momentum.
00:11:33
So, uh, it's interesting just to see Arizona's four and 1/2 point favorites.
00:11:38
But we've seen Dana Altman and Oregon squad play at a top five team in the country this year.
00:11:43
So that's one reason um, organ is, ah, team.
00:11:47
That the struggle on the road compared to Arizona's home court advantage is Orin shoots 9% worse on the road than they do at whom we saw it.
00:11:56
So we saw that in their last game, where Oregon struggled to break 65 points.
00:12:00
So I wouldn't be surprised again if Oregon has another port for shooting, uh, performance.
00:12:06
And when you're not shooting, particularly all that great right now, it's not great when you're playing, It's Arizona home.
00:12:12
Arizona.
00:12:13
Like I said, it's the 13th best home team in the country.
00:12:16
So the ceiling for Arizona and the floor for Oregon, I think, provides a lot of value at this lineup.
00:12:21
Minus four and 1/2 on this total consume low, with only it being at 139 and 1/2 as both teams or top 15 inefficiency in the country.
00:12:33
But this efficiency comes from their slower pace and working the clock.
00:12:37
Both of these teams usually don't shoot before 15 to 18 seconds.
00:12:41
Uh, if not into the twenties, for majority of their possession.
00:12:43
So you see them working the clock and making the other team work out.
00:12:47
Work on defense, Um, as both teams air top 15 and offense efficiency, organise the significantly weaker team on the defense than Arizona.
00:12:58
Arizona's a top 25 team on defense.
00:13:01
So, like I said, if Oregon has the shooting was today, Arizona has a chance to win this game by time.
00:13:10
Um, look for Zeke Nagy and Chase Jeeter toe finish a lot of second chance points today.
00:13:17
Oregon, if you haven't been watching them, cleaning the defensive glass has been something that they've struggled in some games.
00:13:23
And when you see them failing to clean the defensive glass, they've lost outright and have been covered those games.
00:13:29
So that's why I think this is another value play with my model having ah, Arizona favorite by nine points in this game.
00:13:38
So just it since it's college basketball and we'll tuck in talking hoops.
00:13:43
I got other three games to highly, I don't have many bets on these schemes.
00:13:46
But these air three games, I think you should watch to, uh, 3 to 4 games that you should watch today.
00:13:52
The first one's obviously the where college GameDay is and tips off in about 27 minutes.
00:13:57
That's when Kansas goes to Baylor.
00:13:59
I really wanted to get action in this game and start early, but since I found the play on that two lane UCF game, I'm just gonna have, ah, multiple screens up the watch these games and just sit back and enjoy Kansas going to Baylor if I see something at half time, like I said, follow me on Twitter.
00:14:15
I might play something at halftime, but I think this is a game that you should just sit back and watch if your hoops junkie our second game, is where I kind of want to get a barometer feel on this squad.
00:14:27
Michigan's travelling to Purdue, Michigan, starting to show small signs of their early seasick season success where they were dominant in the early season tournaments if they're able to have a beat Rutgers earlier this week.
00:14:40
So if they're able Thio pull off a win after do, which is one of the toughest home courts in the country.
00:14:46
I think this could be signs to say Michigan's gonna be legit and could be an actual contender in the March Madness.
00:14:53
Uh, at the beginning of the season there a clear cut contender that halfway through, they faded off.
00:14:59
And where are they even going to make the tournament contention? And now looks like Juwan Howard's got this squad back in a good group.
00:15:06
Um, so I think Michigan, if they're able to beat off, to do, they're going to be a team to continue to watch.
00:15:11
Um, one game.
00:15:14
That's, uh, good to watch.
00:15:16
It's, um, maybe a little bit lower level game.
00:15:18
But NC State's been getting a lot of love after their 20 point win against Duke.
00:15:23
Now, after that win, there still one and 1/2 point dogs F f F S u.
00:15:28
So could we see another home upset in the making? I know 21 a half point, so it's not a huge upset, but let's see if n.
00:15:35
C State has a letdown, spot this game or if they come out firing again and make it Ah, two wins against Duke and F S U back to back.
00:15:42
That's gonna put a lot of credibility to this squad.
00:15:45
Come March time since most of the games I previewed today, we're all on their 131 140 or 136 points to games.
00:15:55
If you're really looking for high paced high point games, you got L S U vs South Carolina and Gonzaga.
00:16:02
BYU for your options for games are just gonna be flying up and down the court.
00:16:06
Both of these totals Aaron the one forties, if not one fifties.
00:16:10
So if you want to watch them fast paced basketball, these air your games to watch.
00:16:15
So to recap my best bets for the day my 1st 1 is to Lane UCF under 1 37 I don't think to a break 60 points, and I don't think UCF break 70 points today, so that shows that I have about a two least five points of value to the under.
00:16:34
So I think that's the value play there.
00:16:37
When explains the new of the Moneyline Nova shooting outrageous from three right now.
00:16:42
Is that going to continue? I'm not too sure about that, but, um, exhibitors, a team that shoots that that does not shoot well from three.
00:16:49
So when they overplay squads that shoot well from three, nobody usually wins.
00:16:53
And there's with this only being at a pick or a minus one for Nova.
00:16:57
I'm just backing the money line.
00:16:59
My next game is Miss ST minus four and 1/2.
00:17:02
I think this is a sell high spot on Texas A and M, so that's where I have that.
00:17:06
Plus, my model has Miss State as closer to eight point favorites.
00:17:11
So I think this is a good spot to lay some points on the road.
00:17:14
You got to be careful doing that.
00:17:15
But this is the spot where I see it, Um, with my outright and my money, my hungry dog runs faster.
00:17:22
Money lying underdog.
00:17:23
I like the Gators today at plus 1 75 I'm in the game.
00:17:27
That's evenly matched up where I think the Gators are going to try to get Maxie and Richards and the foul trouble.
00:17:33
I think Florida is a great value play.
00:17:36
Um, take the points if you don't want it, if you don't think they're gonna win out right, because if you can get them at morning, my plus four and 1/2 or plus five.
00:17:43
I think that's enough for you to get on a Florida side that I have it at one and 1/2 points for Kentucky and the team wearing no squad holds a clear advantage.
00:17:54
My last best bet of the day is Arizona minus four and 1/2.
00:17:58
The ceiling for Arizona and the floor for Oregon is where I have this advantage.
00:18:03
I think Arizona has the chance to win this game by 10.
00:18:06
They are young and have been somewhat inconsistent.
00:18:10
But at home, that has not been the case.
00:18:11
They've been a top 15 team at home this season.
00:18:15
That's why I like Arizona minus four and 1/2.
00:18:18
Um, I have all these Twitter and tweet soccer and other places throughout the day.
00:18:25
So if you wanna get the rest of my basketball sleep, I add any games other than these five place.
00:18:29
Follow me on Twitter at our East underscore easy with Izzy and follow the breakdown.
00:18:35
That's what I provide and content for and ah, Jordan from the breakdown.
00:18:41
Who's the boss? It is going to go live on, SportsCastr Leader said.
00:18:45
The Twitter for that is at the underscore PRK d w end to get all of our content need.
00:18:51
But like I said, check out Jordan on.
00:18:53
Ah, SportsCastr hit me up if you want his, um, handle for that.
00:18:58
But he has his XFL preview today where he runs a model for that.
00:19:01
So make sure to check out his place for the, uh for today.
00:19:05
Let's get some money today and let's enjoy some hoops. See you.

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