Hey, what's up, everybody? It's Rex Eastwood here from the breakdown.
The cover three picks that I got for you on the couch Hardwood tonight.
Give me some slack tonight.
This is my first ever SportsCastr.
Live in my first time Live stream in.
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So let's get back to the college.
That's going to be focusing the stream on tonight.
Three picks, two games, So let me just dive right into it.
My first game is creating things about our, um on Fox Sports one.
We can watch it live matchup of two top 25 teams.
You're going to see some high quality basketball and some reason why they find some high quality basketball is there to the most efficient offenses in the country.
I'm a guy that likes to dive into Data ****ytics and this advanced numbers into college basketball.
So you're going to hear me referencing a bunch of those things.
So if you have any questions, just let me know.
Throughout this street, um, they have extremely efficient offenses.
So for per 100 possessions on Oppens, Marquette is scoring 113 points and creating the scoring 117 points.
So that's why you have such a high total in this in this matchup, ranging somewhere between 155 256 points and you know why it's gonna be high three's air and B rating tonight.
Both of these teams, or top 10 teams in the nation at three point percentage, each shooting over 39% so you can expect Marcus Hower and market Cigarette House key going to be ah, raining some three so you might hear the commentators dropping Marcus a lot tonight.
A key factor in this matchup, which contend to the over as well, which a lot of people probably won't be talking about, is marketability.
Get to the free third rate.
Marquette gets to the free third rate at a top 15 rate in the nation.
And you see Marcus Howard get there so much you hear me referencing his name so much throughout this stream so far is because his usage rate is through the roof.
No one on this team come where it comes.
Nowhere near is high.
It comes near his use of tree on offense.
That's why you see ah, him always putting up these high going T numbers.
Um, one of the things, though about this, is ah, creating is really good at defending teams to get to the line.
They are top 25 team in the nation as well, so that might be able to counter act Marquette's usually big advantage of getting to the line more than their other opponents.
So we all know that Marquette likes that.
Pushed the ball Dale there on a team that's like some milk, the clock on offense, and neither does Creon, so you could see a back and forth matchup up the court.
But I really don't think that's the case, because I think creating eyes, going to try to control the police and keep market from trying to run, run them out, run them out of there, Jim, run them out of the jig.
Um, so creating.
So far they've played in 12 similar games.
Where they played against high peace teams while I'm classifying as a high pace team is a team that's averaging less than 16 16 cents, 16 seconds on the shot clock and matchups and games like that.
There's 11 and one straight up against them.
UH, they beat Marquette and a similar matchup on New Year's Day.
So take that what you want.
If, since it's New Year's Day, I don't know if the players were out having fun the night before, but, yeah, they're 11 1 in there.
That spot thoroughly loss came against Georgetown, where they lost by three so miss between these two top 20 teams, I'm gonna back the dog with the points here and take the plus three creating like I said with Marcus, Cigarette house key, anti Shaun Alexander.
I think those two are just going to be two guys who are going to get it flowing tonight.
And Martin and, uh, Marcus hour isn't gonna be able to keep up by himself.
Um, also, I've been referencing it Seems like I'm gonna be hitting the over.
And I thought I was gonna hit the over at 1 55 on going the other way.
And I also really like the under, and I think there's decent value on this under the squad's relies so much on the three.
Like I was saying And when I was diving into those numbers, I saw that each of one of these teams are off the top teams in defending free speech hold teams on average to shoot less than 30% on the season from three.
So that makes me to believe that this is gonna be another.
So with the under granted creating with the points at plus three and my Beth I locked in on was under 1 55 So I take it I would, But I would recommend taking either one of those too, please.
In the second game tonight I'm going to go with the number one team in the nation truck.
Baylor traveling to Oklahoma Baylor is a three point road favorites, so that's tempting me to really take a Oklahoma's 100 home underdog.
I love taking on the dogs and especially one against the number one team in the nation that I asked one loss.
It seems like a definite spot to play on it, But I'm going to go a different way and play on the total, because if Oklahoma has a chance to win outright in this game, I think this game's gonna go over.
Baylor's playing at an elite level.
I know that's really obvious thing, the state.
But one way I think they're playing an elite level is on the buckets that they're making.
They're getting assisted on it.
They're assisting on over 52% right now for the past few games on there made baskets, so teams are playing cohesive like that.
That makes means they're getting easy points and they're playing in a rhythm on offense.
When you do that type of thing, you can build momentum and I think that's gonna make him put up points.
Um, they're gonna need a better showing, though, in the second half of the previous game, where Butler and T Grill only two players scoring in the second half.
But I don't really have a concern here against Oklahoma, who does play solid defense, especially at home.
But I think Baylor still will be able to put up over 60 closer to maybe 75 points in this matchup.
Oklahoma right now is a real hot team as well.
They have been playing the best basketball as of late, and they've been playing their best fastball, especially at home and their previous two games.
Oklahoma scored 90 and 70 points, so I would have usually put this total, which is listed at 1 34 over, um, the best part about Oklahoma and one of the things they've been doing best on the season so far as they don't turn over the ball.
When you're not turning over turning over the ball, you're getting shots up at the basket and getting shots up just can lead you to the over.
And that's where I think I'm going.
Um, they're the best there, the night best team in the nation and not turning over the ball.
So that means they're gonna get their shots up, get their chances for Reeves, and I think they're gonna be able to get there.
Um, however, on January 20th when these two squad previous played against each other, Baylor did end up winning this match up, and it didn't go under the total 1 34 which it was list of that today.
Um, like I've been saying, I like the over 11 of the other reasons When I saw it after all day watching the line move, there was a nice room reverse line move on this game.
The total Open last night around 1 32 and 1/2 to 1 33 depending on your book.
And it's now up to 1 35 as if live, Um, it's moved up these 2 to 2 and 1/2 points despite receiving the on their receiving 53% of the bets and 74% of the money.
So, given that, that still makes me like the over.
So I blocked in the over 1 34 and Baylor versus Oklahoma.
I would some books have it at 1 35 right now.
so I would still play at that number.
So recap of my three best bets for tonight.
I like creating plus three.
I like creating a Marquette under 1 55 And I like Baylor Oklahoma over 1 34 Like I said, all the numbers around they're around the point to that.
So I still play at her at that number.
Um, I hope you all enjoyed my first SportsCastr stream.
I know. I kept it short to a 10 minutes.
This is the fare stream I've ever done.
I hope to do more, so I'm You can hit me up in the comments to this video or hit me up on my twitter at our east on the square.
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For any other potential.
Greedy is if you want, um, on through here to hit me up on Twitter and the DMZ and out send it to you and there I do run the sports model almost every day for our college basketball.
So I do project and predict the lines of these three place did fit in my models.
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