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theBRKDWN - XFL Xperience: Chalk Talk: Sunday Lines & Saturday Recap
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00:00:06
All right. Good morning.
00:00:07
Everyone.
00:00:08
Gonna go ahead and share the stream out to my followers on Twitter, So give me a moment here, and then we'll get started.
00:00:38
All right? All right.
00:00:42
Morning.
00:00:43
Has everyone doing to that? Uh, we're gonna go through the Sunday slate for the XFL.
00:00:48
Um, we got two games on slate today, kicking off a little bit later than yesterday.
00:00:53
First games at 3 p.
00:00:54
m.
00:00:55
He's staying with the Dallas friend of AIDS in the l A. Wild Cats.
00:00:58
We have a six PM Eastern game with the ST Louis Battle Hawks and the Houston Roughnecks.
00:01:03
Lines on these games have been moving.
00:01:06
So take what I give you with a grain of salt.
00:01:08
Make sure you're listening to the numbers that I give out because my plays are sensitive to the numbers that I'm able to get.
00:01:14
Not specifically that I like Team A team B, no matter the number.
00:01:20
Um, want to let everyone know this, uh, stream is brought to you by the breakdown Sports betting on sports is an online sports friend.
00:01:28
Have presence on Twitter Instagram.
00:01:30
I find us on Facebook.
00:01:32
Look for search for the breakdown.
00:01:34
Sports That's th g b r k D w N sports.
00:01:39
Just as I have it typed in the name of the stream.
00:01:41
Here we are.
00:01:44
We've got a couple different podcasts for baseball.
00:01:47
We have college football.
00:01:48
We have, uh, NHL hockey on.
00:01:51
We're starting to get more involved with SportsCastr.
00:01:54
Not too. So make sure to check this out.
00:01:56
Check out her store on T public.
00:01:58
We got lots of designs up there for sports.
00:02:01
Different teams pulling for that bit, Lee.
00:02:04
So it's B i t l y slash the breakdown store T h e b r k d w in store.
00:02:13
Um All right, let me go ahead and get you guys into what we have on Slave for today.
00:02:18
As I mentioned, first Game we have is going to be the Dallas Renegades and taking on the Los Angeles Wildcats.
00:02:27
This is take going down in L. A.
00:02:29
That dignity health sports park.
00:02:30
So it's where the Los Angeles Galaxy planet s Oh, it's gonna be a little bit of smaller venue.
00:02:36
They should have pretty decent turnout.
00:02:38
Um, although we have seen how other football games and the Los Angeles County have gone, so that's something to be mindful of, but because it is a bit of a smaller venue, I think that we could have a decent turnout.
00:02:50
This is gonna be there.
00:02:51
I think this is their first game.
00:02:53
Uh, yeah, they're on the road last week.
00:02:54
So this is their first game at all.
00:02:57
Cem Injury news and headlines for this game.
00:02:59
We have Landry Jones back for Dallas Renegades, but they are missing their starting defensive end. Winston Craig.
00:03:06
Uh, Linda Jones being back is big for them.
00:03:08
They kind of struggled to move the ball last week with the backup Q b s o him being back in the saddle.
00:03:14
I will certainly help them out.
00:03:15
Uh, l A.
00:03:16
Also has their starting quarterback returned us.
00:03:19
That is nice to see their Josh Johnson, the, uh, quarterback who it played briefly in the A f.
00:03:28
Think you had a cup of coffee or two in the NFL as well? They are losing their backup.
00:03:34
Chad can off.
00:03:35
He's down this week.
00:03:37
They have to starting defensive backs who are doubtful.
00:03:40
So I do have those affecting the lines.
00:03:44
Let me pull a pro quickly.
00:03:45
What? I have adopt each team for.
00:03:48
So with the Wildcats, I docked them one point to the spread based off.
00:03:54
Losing to having two starting defensive backs is doubtful.
00:03:57
Doubtful implies there's a 25% chance been play.
00:04:01
If they were both confirmed out, I'd probably be looking at about 1.
00:04:04
5 UH, point adjustment to the spread on the other side with Dallas.
00:04:10
I actually gave them a slight bump, one point bump to the spread based off their numbers from last week, being a bit skewed because they played with a back up quarterback for most again.
00:04:24
So that's where we are with that, just with the headlines.
00:04:28
Another note is that L A the world gets fired.
00:04:33
There had their defensive coordinator, eso Winston Moss is now going to be the main play call around the defensive side.
00:04:40
The ball He has never called plays.
00:04:43
Uh, he was in the NFL for 13 years, says the linebacker coach for the Packers, but he was not calling plays.
00:04:49
He was calling assignments for his linebacking corps, but he's never led the defensive structure of a professional football team.
00:05:00
So I think that that's gonna play into this one on and just early on a lot.
00:05:05
You know, I am looking at Dallas here.
00:05:08
Thespian on this has moved.
00:05:11
I believe we're currently back to five and 1/2 whenever I'm referring to lines I've always heard from dependable as a market making book, their most important to monitor on.
00:05:23
And then you can find your own books based off of that, just refreshing my screen here for the penny odds.
00:05:30
Pinnacle is at minus five and 1/2.
00:05:32
Very briefly.
00:05:34
It did move up to a six points front, but it has been back down to five there.
00:05:39
So that's a number that I like Dallas at.
00:05:43
I was able to get a number earlier in the week.
00:05:45
You were able to find fours for in the hats on, and I think that those are great numbers.
00:05:51
Um, if you were able to get those kudos on you for getting the opportunity, the line went up because Landry Jones was confirmed that he is blind to that.
00:06:00
Um so a little bit of breakdown on each side here.
00:06:03
Dallas was the fastest pace team in week one, either.
00:06:06
Stupid past heavy as well.
00:06:07
They passable 75% of their plays and actually ran my place did Dallas having Week one there in 59 place, and they were throwing the ball 45 times with a backup. Q.
00:06:20
BaiI so, But suits not afraid.
00:06:22
Toe.
00:06:23
Air it out.
00:06:24
I think having Landry Jones and the pretty solid quarterback that back up near center will certainly help them.
00:06:30
I think they're going to need to convert third downs more.
00:06:35
That was a major problem with weak one.
00:06:36
And why had toe adjust my stats accordingly? They only converted 10% of their third downs, and they only have the ball for 43% of the game.
00:06:45
So they didn't have little lot, and when they did, they were just chucking it.
00:06:50
Obviously, they did not end up faring too well, a CZ.
00:06:54
They lost 15 to 9 to ST Louis last week, but I think having Landry Jones back under center, that offense will get a little bit more much need continuity on.
00:07:06
But it still may take a little bit for them to get on the board.
00:07:10
So maybe that's an opportunity for a first under um or taking L.
00:07:15
A in the first half, because Dallas might not be able to get much going in.
00:07:20
Landry Jones first game back under center Um Dallas also has a pretty solid defense, despite ST Louis having the ball 60% of the game.
00:07:29
They held him totally 15 points.
00:07:31
They four sacks.
00:07:33
They're able to stop the rush to some degree.
00:07:37
Obviously, ST Louis only put up nine points, but they under 200 yards on the ground.
00:07:42
So that's something to monitor.
00:07:43
They certainly will need to be able to stop the rush against L.
00:07:47
A, um, looking at this game.
00:07:49
So something to be mindful of.
00:07:51
There you will see that the Dallas defense is pretty solid.
00:07:58
I like them.
00:08:00
I like what they're able to do in order to keep the game moving.
00:08:03
But allowing a team, um, like ST Louis had the ball for almost 60% of him last week is not gonna be a recipe for success.
00:08:12
I think that they're really going to need to do better on third downs as well.
00:08:16
They allowed us to convert 50% of their third death place, and the same was 24 1st dance.
00:08:23
I don't think that the Wildcats offense is going to be a strong as the battle hawks were in week one.
00:08:31
So I think that fares well for Dallas.
00:08:34
I just think that, um the way that l a allowed their quarterback to get absolutely brutalised by Houston last week.
00:08:43
If Dallas is able to get some type of rhythm on the defense asylum ble, I think that will do very well for that.
00:08:50
Moving on to L. A.
00:08:52
L.
00:08:53
A.
00:08:54
Is a fast paced team, so although they were playing with a backup last week as well, they were a very fast pace.
00:08:58
They were very past heavy, but they weren't efficient.
00:09:02
The only completed 50% of their passes that had the ball for almost 60% of game but still only put up 70 points.
00:09:09
They rent more plays than any other team last week, UM, which shows that didn't really work in our favor because they couldn't convert when they did it to, um, when they may have done to the red zone.
00:09:21
They only turned two of those four trips into touchdowns on day only put up 17 points despite having 73 offensive blades and having the ball for I think it's 55% of the game, so that's something to watch with L.
00:09:36
A.
00:09:37
Is that they're actually going to need to convert.
00:09:38
Having their starting quarterback back.
00:09:41
Josh Johnson will certainly help, but he hasn't played it all on this offseason.
00:09:46
So are the preseason.
00:09:47
My apologies.
00:09:48
So that's going to something to watch.
00:09:50
May take him a little bit of time to settle in.
00:09:52
I actually know that. I keep saying this.
00:09:55
I think I need to walk myself in on the first half under here.
00:09:59
Let's see what our lines are looking like.
00:10:01
If I can even find first half loans for XFL, the first half totals at 22 a half.
00:10:09
Um, it's a little low for my liking.
00:10:12
Um, let me see if I can find 1/4 pets.
00:10:17
No, no one in his quarters, 22 a half.
00:10:22
I might stay off that.
00:10:23
I do expect them to be under 24.
00:10:26
So if you can find the 24 I might play that to the under.
00:10:29
I think that's a really solid plan there.
00:10:31
Um, another thing with L.
00:10:33
A is the issues I had with your defense.
00:10:36
Their defense was so bad that they fired the offensive coordinator.
00:10:40
They only at once act.
00:10:42
They allowed five touchdowns and in four attempts.
00:10:45
Therefore, trips to the red zone.
00:10:47
They allow their opponent to scored three touchdowns.
00:10:50
Firing your defensive coordinator after week one is a bold move.
00:10:54
Um, I know Winston Moss had some serious time spent in the NFL, but as linebacker coach, not a defensive coordinator.
00:11:02
Know that, Head coach? I think he overreacted, and I think his team couldn't pay for it.
00:11:08
They're gonna need to figure out how to stop the past.
00:11:10
They could not stop the past against the roof. Next.
00:11:13
Um, Dallas is justice pass heavy, if not more past.
00:11:17
Have it in Houston.
00:11:18
Up Stutes eyes.
00:11:20
Not afraid to have his team carried out.
00:11:23
I think that certainly says a lot about that.
00:11:26
Um, with what they did last week with a backup quarterback.
00:11:29
Um, how Mom is the offensive coordinator from Dallas.
00:11:34
I want to say that.
00:11:35
See? Hello, moms.
00:11:37
The air right.
00:11:38
Got yet is the what they call the, uh he started the air raid offense up.
00:11:46
They're not gonna be afraid to air it out.
00:11:47
Landry Jones is not afraid to put some air under the ball so we could see if l.
00:11:53
A is not able to stop this.
00:11:54
This could get ugly, but I think it will be uglier in the second half.
00:11:58
My projections have this game lined at a plus minus six.
00:12:03
So what that means is that for a line of six, I would not bet escape if it is greater than ***.
00:12:09
So if it were plus six and 1/2 minus six and 1/2 I would bet with the other day if it were minus five and 1/2 plus five and 1/2 or anything at better roads, I wouldn't bet the favor.
00:12:22
So my first play for today is Dallas minus five and 1/2.
00:12:27
Make sure you shop around check for those odds, because it is, um, XFL.
00:12:33
You got all different odds.
00:12:35
I was able to find a couple one and 1/2 point middles on some totals this morning.
00:12:40
So certainly make sure you are doing that shopping.
00:12:43
It's always important to have more than access to more than book whenever possible.
00:12:49
Next up, we're gonna take a look at game number two.
00:12:52
This is the night game kicking off at 6 p.m. Eastern.
00:12:55
We have the ST Louis Battle Hawks taking on the Houston Roughnecks.
00:12:59
Uh, this is going on in Houston.
00:13:01
I believe it's a Houston play at home Last week.
00:13:06
My tracker Houston was at home last week.
00:13:09
So this is the second game at home.
00:13:11
UH, they play.
00:13:13
It's where.
00:13:14
The Houston Cougars, but bolting place.
00:13:16
T C D E T D E C U Stadium.
00:13:22
Where Houston Cougars, the college football team place no injury.
00:13:27
News of note for these teams.
00:13:29
They're missing some depth pieces, so both teams are missing like backup wide receivers.
00:13:33
Back up. Running back.
00:13:35
Um, you have but nothing really know where the, um, I think there's one starter who's out.
00:13:43
I think you have a defensive lineman on one of the teams.
00:13:45
Who, though, but that's what depth positions, no major starters.
00:13:49
No quarterback injuries to have to worry about bowl teams.
00:13:53
One in very different fashion.
00:13:55
ST.
00:13:56
Louis played a blinder of a game 1 15 to 9, whereas Houston, uh, despite barely having them all ever Um, 1 31 to 17 in there, so they wanted very different fashion.
00:14:08
So I think this will be an interesting clash to see if Houston can stop ST Louis Rush.
00:14:14
And if ST Louis can stop that, you said pass.
00:14:17
So that's something we're really gonna have to look out.
00:14:19
Gonna keep with the same system here.
00:14:22
I'm gonna break on the away team in the home team that I don't go for my projections and my play.
00:14:27
I actually don't have a play on spread.
00:14:30
I'll look at the spread live.
00:14:32
I think that this one is actually going to be a very excuse me, s o ST.
00:14:39
Louis.
00:14:40
I have ST Louis.
00:14:41
Um, some notes on them.
00:14:42
They're very run happy and weak one there in the frangible 42 times.
00:14:47
They converted it for 191 yards for four and 1/2 yards per carry.
00:14:53
They were very efficient when they passed, but the only past 27 times.
00:14:58
So they had a 74% completion rate on 27 passes.
00:15:02
But they were very, very, very running a ce faras.
00:15:06
How long they had the ball? Let me check here.
00:15:10
They were one of the They were the most possessed team.
00:15:13
They have the ball for 58% of last week's to just really choke out that Dallas offense last week.
00:15:24
Um, are they able to keep pace if they need to? I think is one the one of my big questions because they were so run heavy in Week one.
00:15:35
We need to see if they can, actually passable if Houston is able to put up some points, as they did last week on limited place.
00:15:44
I think that ST Louis is gonna need to have a pretty shrunk pass attack, said Jordan.
00:15:49
Tomoo eyes gonna need Thio.
00:15:52
Make sure that he is not only efficient but actually able to move the ball down the field.
00:15:56
They are surprisingly fast paced team, which I think is interesting to note the team that is so rush heavy real quick.
00:16:04
Here they are.
00:16:07
Houston was the second fastest team last week, so they were averaging an offensive play over 28 a half seconds when they had the ball, which is pretty strong for a team that's rushing the ball 45 times.
00:16:18
And they also converted 50% of their third downs, which is again when you're rushing the ball as heaviest bat, you are running a fairly predictable offense um, I think that says a lot about your team.
00:16:33
Half their first downs were rushing for first son's today, a 20 for 24 1st downs last week, Uh, and 11 of them came with ground.
00:16:44
Other thing to note about ST Louis.
00:16:46
How strong of a defense they have.
00:16:49
They had four ***, that seven tackles for losses and the hell Dallas Toni tempers out there down Dallas.
00:16:56
It was rolling with a backup Q B, which you kind of need to take with a grain of salt.
00:17:01
But you can't knock a team for four sacks, seven tackles for losses.
00:17:06
And I believe they didn't even need to defend a passes because Dallas wasn't really able to do anything.
00:17:13
Some really anemic passing game last week from Dallas.
00:17:17
Okay, text message.
00:17:23
Are they able to do that against Houston? I think that's what we're gonna need to say.
00:17:26
Houston is a fast paced, high powered slinging offense.
00:17:31
Are they going to be able to slow them down or they gonna be able to choke them out on third down? If they are, ST Louis will keep this close, Um, and it will be a very low scoring it.
00:17:40
I think overall it's gonna be pretty low scoring game, kind of tipping my cap towards the play that I'm leading towards her.
00:17:47
I actually walked in because if ST Louis is able to stop Houston's attack, I think ST Louis then plays their style of game.
00:17:56
They've run out the clock.
00:17:58
They keep the ball on the ground, in the control.
00:18:00
The pace of play.
00:18:01
They were able to win with only 15 points last week.
00:18:04
So if they can shut down this Houston offense, they could probably win with three touchdowns somewhere around 18 toe 22 points ever take on the other side.
00:18:16
The home team, the Roughnecks.
00:18:18
They had a huge second half comeback.
00:18:21
They passable, no matter what.
00:18:22
They were not afraid to throw the ball.
00:18:25
That was very fun, to watch them make that little bit of a comeback there.
00:18:29
June Jones had coach and Chris Miller.
00:18:32
That offense coordinator showed that even when they didn't need to, they were impassable.
00:18:37
They only had 55 plays, but they were very, very efficient.
00:18:42
They kept their Q B clean, which is very important.
00:18:45
Um, they complete 61% of their passes last week so strong through the air.
00:18:52
But can they put the ball on the ground and run out the clock? I I think that will be important.
00:18:59
How they can't just passable.
00:19:01
I don't think that this will be the opportunity or the game where they're able to do that.
00:19:06
With ST Louis able to get to the quarterback and sec their opponent four times last week and them breaking up seven plays in the backfield, I think that Houston's gonna need to be able to run the ball, uh, get some play action and really mix things up.
00:19:22
Um, who's gonna win that battle? Is it gonna be the Saint Louis pass rush or is it gonna be the Houston office supply and their dynamic pass attack? That's really what we're looking at here.
00:19:32
Um, other thing with Houston, they had a very strong defense.
00:19:37
I think they're the number one rated by Profootballfocus coming out of Week one.
00:19:42
They've really attacked that quarterback.
00:19:43
They had 10 hits on the five sacks, and they defended 11 passes.
00:19:47
So even when the Wildcats Q B last week was able to get the ball out, he was getting attacked by a pretty stiff defensive backfield.
00:19:58
They only allowed L A to convert 20% of their downs on 15 in town.
00:20:03
So that is, says a lot about Houston's ability to not only stop the men through the air, but also stop any sort of stop any sort of rush on the ground as well.
00:20:20
Im variable to slow down that ST Louis rush and force them to pass.
00:20:24
I think we're gonna learn a lot of these teams ST.
00:20:27
Louis wants to control of all they want to control the time of possession and they want to run the ball.
00:20:33
Houston wants to speed the game up.
00:20:35
They want to take the ball through the air and think we're going to see a clashing of personalities between the defense of mind sets of bowl teams and the offensive mindsets of each of these teams.
00:20:48
The play that I was able to lock in here was the under 40 people.
00:20:54
I've got it at minus 1 10 Let me real quickly pull up, Pinnacle, See what our total is currently for this game.
00:21:03
I think we're still at 48.
00:21:09
Refreshing here.
00:21:15
Yes.
00:21:16
Total is still at 48 points s o I still like.
00:21:19
I like that play to be under.
00:21:20
I think this is going to be a lower scoring game.
00:21:23
I think we could see a 20 to 18.
00:21:27
We could see two teams scoring in the low twenties.
00:21:30
We could see two teams going in the high teens.
00:21:33
I don't think that either team is goingto 30 points, which is why I'm also hesitant to take spread.
00:21:41
If I were to back this game, I probably would go to Houston.
00:21:45
I have this game lined at a nine point spread, meaning anything at the current spread of, uh, eight, I would play on Houston.
00:21:58
Um, I'm not betting this game on the spread this early.
00:22:02
I there's not much data.
00:22:04
So in the second week of the XFL, so I'm playing it safe.
00:22:07
I actually like the total better.
00:22:09
So that's the play that I'm going to make.
00:22:11
I will watch for life, but in opportunities with the second half betting as well, because I think that from watching 1/2 of this half this game or even 1/4 we're gonna learn a lot about how these teams look are looking to dictate the game watch out for that.
00:22:33
If you If I were to bet on a side, I would bet Houston at the current minus eight luck.
00:22:40
Because, as I mentioned, I have a game projected at night.
00:22:43
I had some people in here yesterday.
00:22:45
When I went through, I saw kind of briefly talk through.
00:22:48
I'm using a power rating.
00:22:50
Uh, model has gone.
00:22:54
I'm using a power rating model.
00:22:56
So I built in things to my model, such as, like market influence to know what fans or what they just thinks of each team going into the season.
00:23:09
I then will kind of outline the coaching staffs of every team to C rank from best to worst, where each of those teams lied because coaching and football is are important from there in calculating a lot of stats by and the other stats that are readily available in the NFL but unfortunate with except hell, because we are working with a bit more of a limited budget here and there's not as much media coverage.
00:23:40
We do not have those luxuries, but it actually gives me an opportunity to get back in really work with numbers on dhe, actually build something from the ground up from there.
00:23:50
I've manual adjustments for injuries in motivation.
00:23:54
So, as I mentioned for my two place today, um, I have the spread on the first game at six for the Dallas Renegades in the l A Wildcats.
00:24:05
I was spread on the second game at nine for ST Louis Battle Hawks in the Houston Roughnecks.
00:24:13
Sports news alert says I am a Battle Hawks fan, huh? Yeah, absolutely.
00:24:18
I have here the breakdown.
00:24:19
We have some other team members who are Battle Hawks fans.
00:24:24
I like with the Battle of Orcs.
00:24:26
Did I'm a bit hesitant to immediately jump on the bandwagon.
00:24:32
What I had going into the season, I add them as not a terrible team.
00:24:36
Um, kind of middle of the pack.
00:24:39
I have them ranked right now is my fifth or a team in the league.
00:24:44
Actually, while we have some time here, I will go through very briefly.
00:24:49
My power ratings thes air, what I had going into this week, so I have not taken a look at my stats.
00:24:55
I have them fifth.
00:24:56
Yes, Um, I have my power ratings.
00:25:01
Um, nothing has been affected by this week.
00:25:03
So yesterday's results I have not changed anything.
00:25:06
The number one team I have in the league I do of Houston, I have them as a slight advantage over the D C defenders who I haven't second on dhe.
00:25:15
Then I have them over Dallas.
00:25:19
I wouldn't say that Dallas is the number one team.
00:25:21
I don't think Dallas is the number one team.
00:25:23
I think Dallas also played with a backup quarterback.
00:25:26
You have a backup quarterback who goes one for 10 on third down on Diz getting pummeled.
00:25:32
I think it's going to be very hard for a team to win.
00:25:35
I think that Dallas is over the course of a season going to be one of the better teams.
00:25:39
But I don't think that in Week one with a backup quarterback when they were hoping toe have their starter play.
00:25:46
Um, we had them is the number one team.
00:25:49
I think that the battle Hawks out played last week.
00:25:53
I actually had them.
00:25:54
I bet on them I had them, uh, as an underdog play because I really liked him.
00:25:59
I didn't think they should have been as big an underdog as it were.
00:26:04
How old the playoffs work were there before teams.
00:26:09
Let's say I can pull that up Real quick.
00:26:14
XFL playoff schedule? Yes, looks like there will be four teams.
00:26:21
Two teams from the East, two teams from the West on and then they will face off in the XFL championship.
00:26:28
The first week of the playoffs will be the week of April, A weekend of April 18th and then the championship will be, uh, the following Sunday.
00:26:40
Yeah, it's just the best record.
00:26:42
So the top two East End teams the top two Western teams face off.
00:26:46
Um, and then the winner of each of those goes on to the championship.
00:26:52
I think they do have.
00:26:53
So the tie breakers are different in the XFL, um, than an L, which is important to note.
00:26:59
I'm gonna pull up the poll standings.
00:27:03
They have touchdown differential as a, um, Tiebreaker.
00:27:10
So if you look at the XFL standings on their Web site, you can see the TV plus minus.
00:27:17
That's because they're using the touchdown differential as a tiebreaker.
00:27:20
So if at the end of the season we had three teams, all with the same record, the two teams with the best touchdown differential would be the teams that are advancing to the class.
00:27:32
Unlike NFL, where it's like divisional record head to head matchups.
00:27:37
And there's all these different tiers of having a touchdown differential.
00:27:41
Makes a very cut.
00:27:43
Um, so sorry.
00:27:45
Went a little off track there, but back to my A ratings.
00:27:48
Houston, as the number one team in the league going into week two d.
00:27:52
C.
00:27:53
Is the number two team.
00:27:54
I have Dallas as the number three team.
00:27:56
From there, I have ST Louis is my number.
00:27:59
Actually, they're my number yet a Tampa, Tampa ST Louis in New York. All tied.
00:28:05
Um, so I guess we'll call that five.
00:28:08
You got four through six on my last two teams.
00:28:11
I have L.
00:28:12
A in Seattle, uh, as my two lowest teams ranked going into Week two.
00:28:17
Yesterday's results certainly shocked me in the Tampa Bagan.
00:28:21
They continue to be hit by just horrible locking variance.
00:28:25
You have a wide receiver drop a wide open touchdown in the end zone, and, uh, you have your backup quarterback or something.
00:28:36
Um, handle all to the opposing team in the end zone.
00:28:40
Um, scores for yesterday.
00:28:42
You had, let's say, Tampa Bay lost by I think I lost my six.
00:28:47
I'm gonna pull up here.
00:28:49
Um, I think they've lost us.
00:28:52
The Tampa Bay lost 17 to 9 yesterday to Seattle.
00:28:57
Tampa Bay was up 9 to, so they kicked a field goal.
00:28:59
They had a pick six, which was sick.
00:29:02
I was like 80 yards somewhere between 16 80 yards, and then Seattle scored 17.
00:29:08
Unanswered, including a play from Tampa Bay, was on their own one.
00:29:15
So they're backed up to their end zone and their quarterback didn't know how to throw a screen.
00:29:19
So rather than shuffling backwards, he stood still and tried to throw the ball over the defensive end.
00:29:25
And he caught it in his hands and was standing in the end zone for a pick six.
00:29:31
Um, I didn't know.
00:29:33
I watched all of this.
00:29:34
I watched 1/4 of the D C defenders.
00:29:37
That was early game D.
00:29:38
C.
00:29:39
Defenders blew out the New York audience I.
00:29:42
D.
00:29:43
C defenders as my bet yesterday played them at will.
00:29:50
I have the defenders of minus seven s o.
00:29:53
They won 27.
00:29:54
Nothing.
00:29:55
They showed that they're really strong, something to be as attending about with the sea defenders is that they cannot convert an extra point to save their life.
00:30:03
They can't score inside the red zone there.
00:30:06
Plays tend to come from explosive place.
00:30:09
So if we're in week five in D.
00:30:12
C.
00:30:13
Is playing a team and you think it might be a close game, Um, something to consider in that scenario would be that d.
00:30:18
C struggles to convert extra point there.
00:30:22
But, yeah, I was a pretty incredible game.
00:30:24
I really didn't see Seattle playing up that way.
00:30:27
I think they're the least talented coaching staff and police talented roster.
00:30:32
I think it will be.
00:30:34
We'll have some real good games today.
00:30:36
Um, so I like that, uh, Dallas in the first game.
00:30:40
I think that if l A is unable to figure everything out, I think that it could get ugly, um, fast, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they had struggled on fire the defensive coordinator.
00:30:55
So game number one might play is Dallas minus half.
00:31:00
So if you're hearing a noise a bolt when Dr Aaron here chewing on bones, um, we have in Game two we of the ST Louis Battle Hawks taking on the Houston Roughnecks and that although I have the game lined at nine, I'm respecting ST Louis enough to not play against them, even though I think that, um, the spread should be a little bit bigger than they are.
00:31:24
I like, and I what I locked in was under 48.
00:31:27
I think that is a very safe bet because you have two teams with clashing styles of play, and I think that they'll be able to grind it out in a lower scoring game.
00:31:37
Um, I think there are a great life betting opportunities in the second match up with ST Louis in Houston.
00:31:43
Given that bowl teams have very distinct styles.
00:31:47
But if you see one teen style of play playing into how you expected, perhaps you can back them.
00:31:53
Or if you think that he might make a comeback, that's another opportunity there.
00:31:59
That's all we've got for this week for Week two.
00:32:03
Action, Um, let me see if I've got anything else.
00:32:06
I don't think lines air out yet for a week.
00:32:08
Three based off for what I have going into Week two.
00:32:15
I have the games for next week, so next week's names we've got uh, Houston Roughnecks traveling to take on the Tampa Bay Vipers.
00:32:23
I had that projected I spread of three so Vipers would be a three point underdog at home.
00:32:30
Depending on the result of today.
00:32:32
I think that could open as high as six.
00:32:34
I think that the public is going to be very pessimistic on the Tampa Bay Vipers, who continue to not be able to score a touchdown in the red zone or actually touch on period.
00:32:45
Um, on the offensive side of the ball second game is the Dallas Renegades at the Seattle Dragons.
00:32:52
I have that lined as Seattle is a six point home underdog.
00:32:57
If Dallas wins today, I think that will see it probably around five.
00:33:03
If Dallas loses, I think that they're gonna get crazy and we'll probably see like that spread of somewhere around three.
00:33:10
Um, and I think that it will be too over reactionary for on Seattle's win this week, Dallas is lost.
00:33:19
Uh, next week I have New York Guardians traveling to ST Louis to take on the Battle hawks and the battle.
00:33:25
Hawkes is a two point favorite that's probably gonna open up at four, maybe even five which based off how the Guardians played yesterday.
00:33:35
I'm sure when I update my numbers based off the statistics that I will be somewhere in that range is well, I think that the battle ox will really put it on The Guardian six week on, then the last match up for next week is the D C defenders traveling to Los Angeles to take on the L A Wild Cats.
00:33:55
I have the Wildcats lined as a six and 1/2 point underdog here.
00:34:00
If the Wildcats lose today, this game's opening at 10 points.
00:34:04
Uh, D.
00:34:05
C put up 27 points and allowed zero.
00:34:08
This week, they put up 31 points.
00:34:11
Last week you were seeing gonna see it easily.
00:34:14
Um, open as a 10 and 1/2 maybe even 11 point spread.
00:34:18
What's up? Morning, Um, next week.
00:34:21
So that's all I got for a week to take a quick look ahead to Week three.
00:34:25
Maybe I'll hop on this week to do a quick stream breakdown the lines a little bit earlier breakdown, injury news or the results of weak tip.
00:34:34
I hope that you enjoy the stream again.
00:34:36
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00:34:43
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00:36:03
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Jordan W @GordonVonDenim

Transcript hideup

00:00:06
All right. Good morning.
00:00:07
Everyone.
00:00:08
Gonna go ahead and share the stream out to my followers on Twitter, So give me a moment here, and then we'll get started.
00:00:38
All right? All right.
00:00:42
Morning.
00:00:43
Has everyone doing to that? Uh, we're gonna go through the Sunday slate for the XFL.
00:00:48
Um, we got two games on slate today, kicking off a little bit later than yesterday.
00:00:53
First games at 3 p.
00:00:54
m.
00:00:55
He's staying with the Dallas friend of AIDS in the l A. Wild Cats.
00:00:58
We have a six PM Eastern game with the ST Louis Battle Hawks and the Houston Roughnecks.
00:01:03
Lines on these games have been moving.
00:01:06
So take what I give you with a grain of salt.
00:01:08
Make sure you're listening to the numbers that I give out because my plays are sensitive to the numbers that I'm able to get.
00:01:14
Not specifically that I like Team A team B, no matter the number.
00:01:20
Um, want to let everyone know this, uh, stream is brought to you by the breakdown Sports betting on sports is an online sports friend.
00:01:28
Have presence on Twitter Instagram.
00:01:30
I find us on Facebook.
00:01:32
Look for search for the breakdown.
00:01:34
Sports That's th g b r k D w N sports.
00:01:39
Just as I have it typed in the name of the stream.
00:01:41
Here we are.
00:01:44
We've got a couple different podcasts for baseball.
00:01:47
We have college football.
00:01:48
We have, uh, NHL hockey on.
00:01:51
We're starting to get more involved with SportsCastr.
00:01:54
Not too. So make sure to check this out.
00:01:56
Check out her store on T public.
00:01:58
We got lots of designs up there for sports.
00:02:01
Different teams pulling for that bit, Lee.
00:02:04
So it's B i t l y slash the breakdown store T h e b r k d w in store.
00:02:13
Um All right, let me go ahead and get you guys into what we have on Slave for today.
00:02:18
As I mentioned, first Game we have is going to be the Dallas Renegades and taking on the Los Angeles Wildcats.
00:02:27
This is take going down in L. A.
00:02:29
That dignity health sports park.
00:02:30
So it's where the Los Angeles Galaxy planet s Oh, it's gonna be a little bit of smaller venue.
00:02:36
They should have pretty decent turnout.
00:02:38
Um, although we have seen how other football games and the Los Angeles County have gone, so that's something to be mindful of, but because it is a bit of a smaller venue, I think that we could have a decent turnout.
00:02:50
This is gonna be there.
00:02:51
I think this is their first game.
00:02:53
Uh, yeah, they're on the road last week.
00:02:54
So this is their first game at all.
00:02:57
Cem Injury news and headlines for this game.
00:02:59
We have Landry Jones back for Dallas Renegades, but they are missing their starting defensive end. Winston Craig.
00:03:06
Uh, Linda Jones being back is big for them.
00:03:08
They kind of struggled to move the ball last week with the backup Q b s o him being back in the saddle.
00:03:14
I will certainly help them out.
00:03:15
Uh, l A.
00:03:16
Also has their starting quarterback returned us.
00:03:19
That is nice to see their Josh Johnson, the, uh, quarterback who it played briefly in the A f.
00:03:28
Think you had a cup of coffee or two in the NFL as well? They are losing their backup.
00:03:34
Chad can off.
00:03:35
He's down this week.
00:03:37
They have to starting defensive backs who are doubtful.
00:03:40
So I do have those affecting the lines.
00:03:44
Let me pull a pro quickly.
00:03:45
What? I have adopt each team for.
00:03:48
So with the Wildcats, I docked them one point to the spread based off.
00:03:54
Losing to having two starting defensive backs is doubtful.
00:03:57
Doubtful implies there's a 25% chance been play.
00:04:01
If they were both confirmed out, I'd probably be looking at about 1.
00:04:04
5 UH, point adjustment to the spread on the other side with Dallas.
00:04:10
I actually gave them a slight bump, one point bump to the spread based off their numbers from last week, being a bit skewed because they played with a back up quarterback for most again.
00:04:24
So that's where we are with that, just with the headlines.
00:04:28
Another note is that L A the world gets fired.
00:04:33
There had their defensive coordinator, eso Winston Moss is now going to be the main play call around the defensive side.
00:04:40
The ball He has never called plays.
00:04:43
Uh, he was in the NFL for 13 years, says the linebacker coach for the Packers, but he was not calling plays.
00:04:49
He was calling assignments for his linebacking corps, but he's never led the defensive structure of a professional football team.
00:05:00
So I think that that's gonna play into this one on and just early on a lot.
00:05:05
You know, I am looking at Dallas here.
00:05:08
Thespian on this has moved.
00:05:11
I believe we're currently back to five and 1/2 whenever I'm referring to lines I've always heard from dependable as a market making book, their most important to monitor on.
00:05:23
And then you can find your own books based off of that, just refreshing my screen here for the penny odds.
00:05:30
Pinnacle is at minus five and 1/2.
00:05:32
Very briefly.
00:05:34
It did move up to a six points front, but it has been back down to five there.
00:05:39
So that's a number that I like Dallas at.
00:05:43
I was able to get a number earlier in the week.
00:05:45
You were able to find fours for in the hats on, and I think that those are great numbers.
00:05:51
Um, if you were able to get those kudos on you for getting the opportunity, the line went up because Landry Jones was confirmed that he is blind to that.
00:06:00
Um so a little bit of breakdown on each side here.
00:06:03
Dallas was the fastest pace team in week one, either.
00:06:06
Stupid past heavy as well.
00:06:07
They passable 75% of their plays and actually ran my place did Dallas having Week one there in 59 place, and they were throwing the ball 45 times with a backup. Q.
00:06:20
BaiI so, But suits not afraid.
00:06:22
Toe.
00:06:23
Air it out.
00:06:24
I think having Landry Jones and the pretty solid quarterback that back up near center will certainly help them.
00:06:30
I think they're going to need to convert third downs more.
00:06:35
That was a major problem with weak one.
00:06:36
And why had toe adjust my stats accordingly? They only converted 10% of their third downs, and they only have the ball for 43% of the game.
00:06:45
So they didn't have little lot, and when they did, they were just chucking it.
00:06:50
Obviously, they did not end up faring too well, a CZ.
00:06:54
They lost 15 to 9 to ST Louis last week, but I think having Landry Jones back under center, that offense will get a little bit more much need continuity on.
00:07:06
But it still may take a little bit for them to get on the board.
00:07:10
So maybe that's an opportunity for a first under um or taking L.
00:07:15
A in the first half, because Dallas might not be able to get much going in.
00:07:20
Landry Jones first game back under center Um Dallas also has a pretty solid defense, despite ST Louis having the ball 60% of the game.
00:07:29
They held him totally 15 points.
00:07:31
They four sacks.
00:07:33
They're able to stop the rush to some degree.
00:07:37
Obviously, ST Louis only put up nine points, but they under 200 yards on the ground.
00:07:42
So that's something to monitor.
00:07:43
They certainly will need to be able to stop the rush against L.
00:07:47
A, um, looking at this game.
00:07:49
So something to be mindful of.
00:07:51
There you will see that the Dallas defense is pretty solid.
00:07:58
I like them.
00:08:00
I like what they're able to do in order to keep the game moving.
00:08:03
But allowing a team, um, like ST Louis had the ball for almost 60% of him last week is not gonna be a recipe for success.
00:08:12
I think that they're really going to need to do better on third downs as well.
00:08:16
They allowed us to convert 50% of their third death place, and the same was 24 1st dance.
00:08:23
I don't think that the Wildcats offense is going to be a strong as the battle hawks were in week one.
00:08:31
So I think that fares well for Dallas.
00:08:34
I just think that, um the way that l a allowed their quarterback to get absolutely brutalised by Houston last week.
00:08:43
If Dallas is able to get some type of rhythm on the defense asylum ble, I think that will do very well for that.
00:08:50
Moving on to L. A.
00:08:52
L.
00:08:53
A.
00:08:54
Is a fast paced team, so although they were playing with a backup last week as well, they were a very fast pace.
00:08:58
They were very past heavy, but they weren't efficient.
00:09:02
The only completed 50% of their passes that had the ball for almost 60% of game but still only put up 70 points.
00:09:09
They rent more plays than any other team last week, UM, which shows that didn't really work in our favor because they couldn't convert when they did it to, um, when they may have done to the red zone.
00:09:21
They only turned two of those four trips into touchdowns on day only put up 17 points despite having 73 offensive blades and having the ball for I think it's 55% of the game, so that's something to watch with L.
00:09:36
A.
00:09:37
Is that they're actually going to need to convert.
00:09:38
Having their starting quarterback back.
00:09:41
Josh Johnson will certainly help, but he hasn't played it all on this offseason.
00:09:46
So are the preseason.
00:09:47
My apologies.
00:09:48
So that's going to something to watch.
00:09:50
May take him a little bit of time to settle in.
00:09:52
I actually know that. I keep saying this.
00:09:55
I think I need to walk myself in on the first half under here.
00:09:59
Let's see what our lines are looking like.
00:10:01
If I can even find first half loans for XFL, the first half totals at 22 a half.
00:10:09
Um, it's a little low for my liking.
00:10:12
Um, let me see if I can find 1/4 pets.
00:10:17
No, no one in his quarters, 22 a half.
00:10:22
I might stay off that.
00:10:23
I do expect them to be under 24.
00:10:26
So if you can find the 24 I might play that to the under.
00:10:29
I think that's a really solid plan there.
00:10:31
Um, another thing with L.
00:10:33
A is the issues I had with your defense.
00:10:36
Their defense was so bad that they fired the offensive coordinator.
00:10:40
They only at once act.
00:10:42
They allowed five touchdowns and in four attempts.
00:10:45
Therefore, trips to the red zone.
00:10:47
They allow their opponent to scored three touchdowns.
00:10:50
Firing your defensive coordinator after week one is a bold move.
00:10:54
Um, I know Winston Moss had some serious time spent in the NFL, but as linebacker coach, not a defensive coordinator.
00:11:02
Know that, Head coach? I think he overreacted, and I think his team couldn't pay for it.
00:11:08
They're gonna need to figure out how to stop the past.
00:11:10
They could not stop the past against the roof. Next.
00:11:13
Um, Dallas is justice pass heavy, if not more past.
00:11:17
Have it in Houston.
00:11:18
Up Stutes eyes.
00:11:20
Not afraid to have his team carried out.
00:11:23
I think that certainly says a lot about that.
00:11:26
Um, with what they did last week with a backup quarterback.
00:11:29
Um, how Mom is the offensive coordinator from Dallas.
00:11:34
I want to say that.
00:11:35
See? Hello, moms.
00:11:37
The air right.
00:11:38
Got yet is the what they call the, uh he started the air raid offense up.
00:11:46
They're not gonna be afraid to air it out.
00:11:47
Landry Jones is not afraid to put some air under the ball so we could see if l.
00:11:53
A is not able to stop this.
00:11:54
This could get ugly, but I think it will be uglier in the second half.
00:11:58
My projections have this game lined at a plus minus six.
00:12:03
So what that means is that for a line of six, I would not bet escape if it is greater than ***.
00:12:09
So if it were plus six and 1/2 minus six and 1/2 I would bet with the other day if it were minus five and 1/2 plus five and 1/2 or anything at better roads, I wouldn't bet the favor.
00:12:22
So my first play for today is Dallas minus five and 1/2.
00:12:27
Make sure you shop around check for those odds, because it is, um, XFL.
00:12:33
You got all different odds.
00:12:35
I was able to find a couple one and 1/2 point middles on some totals this morning.
00:12:40
So certainly make sure you are doing that shopping.
00:12:43
It's always important to have more than access to more than book whenever possible.
00:12:49
Next up, we're gonna take a look at game number two.
00:12:52
This is the night game kicking off at 6 p.m. Eastern.
00:12:55
We have the ST Louis Battle Hawks taking on the Houston Roughnecks.
00:12:59
Uh, this is going on in Houston.
00:13:01
I believe it's a Houston play at home Last week.
00:13:06
My tracker Houston was at home last week.
00:13:09
So this is the second game at home.
00:13:11
UH, they play.
00:13:13
It's where.
00:13:14
The Houston Cougars, but bolting place.
00:13:16
T C D E T D E C U Stadium.
00:13:22
Where Houston Cougars, the college football team place no injury.
00:13:27
News of note for these teams.
00:13:29
They're missing some depth pieces, so both teams are missing like backup wide receivers.
00:13:33
Back up. Running back.
00:13:35
Um, you have but nothing really know where the, um, I think there's one starter who's out.
00:13:43
I think you have a defensive lineman on one of the teams.
00:13:45
Who, though, but that's what depth positions, no major starters.
00:13:49
No quarterback injuries to have to worry about bowl teams.
00:13:53
One in very different fashion.
00:13:55
ST.
00:13:56
Louis played a blinder of a game 1 15 to 9, whereas Houston, uh, despite barely having them all ever Um, 1 31 to 17 in there, so they wanted very different fashion.
00:14:08
So I think this will be an interesting clash to see if Houston can stop ST Louis Rush.
00:14:14
And if ST Louis can stop that, you said pass.
00:14:17
So that's something we're really gonna have to look out.
00:14:19
Gonna keep with the same system here.
00:14:22
I'm gonna break on the away team in the home team that I don't go for my projections and my play.
00:14:27
I actually don't have a play on spread.
00:14:30
I'll look at the spread live.
00:14:32
I think that this one is actually going to be a very excuse me, s o ST.
00:14:39
Louis.
00:14:40
I have ST Louis.
00:14:41
Um, some notes on them.
00:14:42
They're very run happy and weak one there in the frangible 42 times.
00:14:47
They converted it for 191 yards for four and 1/2 yards per carry.
00:14:53
They were very efficient when they passed, but the only past 27 times.
00:14:58
So they had a 74% completion rate on 27 passes.
00:15:02
But they were very, very, very running a ce faras.
00:15:06
How long they had the ball? Let me check here.
00:15:10
They were one of the They were the most possessed team.
00:15:13
They have the ball for 58% of last week's to just really choke out that Dallas offense last week.
00:15:24
Um, are they able to keep pace if they need to? I think is one the one of my big questions because they were so run heavy in Week one.
00:15:35
We need to see if they can, actually passable if Houston is able to put up some points, as they did last week on limited place.
00:15:44
I think that ST Louis is gonna need to have a pretty shrunk pass attack, said Jordan.
00:15:49
Tomoo eyes gonna need Thio.
00:15:52
Make sure that he is not only efficient but actually able to move the ball down the field.
00:15:56
They are surprisingly fast paced team, which I think is interesting to note the team that is so rush heavy real quick.
00:16:04
Here they are.
00:16:07
Houston was the second fastest team last week, so they were averaging an offensive play over 28 a half seconds when they had the ball, which is pretty strong for a team that's rushing the ball 45 times.
00:16:18
And they also converted 50% of their third downs, which is again when you're rushing the ball as heaviest bat, you are running a fairly predictable offense um, I think that says a lot about your team.
00:16:33
Half their first downs were rushing for first son's today, a 20 for 24 1st downs last week, Uh, and 11 of them came with ground.
00:16:44
Other thing to note about ST Louis.
00:16:46
How strong of a defense they have.
00:16:49
They had four ***, that seven tackles for losses and the hell Dallas Toni tempers out there down Dallas.
00:16:56
It was rolling with a backup Q B, which you kind of need to take with a grain of salt.
00:17:01
But you can't knock a team for four sacks, seven tackles for losses.
00:17:06
And I believe they didn't even need to defend a passes because Dallas wasn't really able to do anything.
00:17:13
Some really anemic passing game last week from Dallas.
00:17:17
Okay, text message.
00:17:23
Are they able to do that against Houston? I think that's what we're gonna need to say.
00:17:26
Houston is a fast paced, high powered slinging offense.
00:17:31
Are they going to be able to slow them down or they gonna be able to choke them out on third down? If they are, ST Louis will keep this close, Um, and it will be a very low scoring it.
00:17:40
I think overall it's gonna be pretty low scoring game, kind of tipping my cap towards the play that I'm leading towards her.
00:17:47
I actually walked in because if ST Louis is able to stop Houston's attack, I think ST Louis then plays their style of game.
00:17:56
They've run out the clock.
00:17:58
They keep the ball on the ground, in the control.
00:18:00
The pace of play.
00:18:01
They were able to win with only 15 points last week.
00:18:04
So if they can shut down this Houston offense, they could probably win with three touchdowns somewhere around 18 toe 22 points ever take on the other side.
00:18:16
The home team, the Roughnecks.
00:18:18
They had a huge second half comeback.
00:18:21
They passable, no matter what.
00:18:22
They were not afraid to throw the ball.
00:18:25
That was very fun, to watch them make that little bit of a comeback there.
00:18:29
June Jones had coach and Chris Miller.
00:18:32
That offense coordinator showed that even when they didn't need to, they were impassable.
00:18:37
They only had 55 plays, but they were very, very efficient.
00:18:42
They kept their Q B clean, which is very important.
00:18:45
Um, they complete 61% of their passes last week so strong through the air.
00:18:52
But can they put the ball on the ground and run out the clock? I I think that will be important.
00:18:59
How they can't just passable.
00:19:01
I don't think that this will be the opportunity or the game where they're able to do that.
00:19:06
With ST Louis able to get to the quarterback and sec their opponent four times last week and them breaking up seven plays in the backfield, I think that Houston's gonna need to be able to run the ball, uh, get some play action and really mix things up.
00:19:22
Um, who's gonna win that battle? Is it gonna be the Saint Louis pass rush or is it gonna be the Houston office supply and their dynamic pass attack? That's really what we're looking at here.
00:19:32
Um, other thing with Houston, they had a very strong defense.
00:19:37
I think they're the number one rated by Profootballfocus coming out of Week one.
00:19:42
They've really attacked that quarterback.
00:19:43
They had 10 hits on the five sacks, and they defended 11 passes.
00:19:47
So even when the Wildcats Q B last week was able to get the ball out, he was getting attacked by a pretty stiff defensive backfield.
00:19:58
They only allowed L A to convert 20% of their downs on 15 in town.
00:20:03
So that is, says a lot about Houston's ability to not only stop the men through the air, but also stop any sort of stop any sort of rush on the ground as well.
00:20:20
Im variable to slow down that ST Louis rush and force them to pass.
00:20:24
I think we're gonna learn a lot of these teams ST.
00:20:27
Louis wants to control of all they want to control the time of possession and they want to run the ball.
00:20:33
Houston wants to speed the game up.
00:20:35
They want to take the ball through the air and think we're going to see a clashing of personalities between the defense of mind sets of bowl teams and the offensive mindsets of each of these teams.
00:20:48
The play that I was able to lock in here was the under 40 people.
00:20:54
I've got it at minus 1 10 Let me real quickly pull up, Pinnacle, See what our total is currently for this game.
00:21:03
I think we're still at 48.
00:21:09
Refreshing here.
00:21:15
Yes.
00:21:16
Total is still at 48 points s o I still like.
00:21:19
I like that play to be under.
00:21:20
I think this is going to be a lower scoring game.
00:21:23
I think we could see a 20 to 18.
00:21:27
We could see two teams scoring in the low twenties.
00:21:30
We could see two teams going in the high teens.
00:21:33
I don't think that either team is goingto 30 points, which is why I'm also hesitant to take spread.
00:21:41
If I were to back this game, I probably would go to Houston.
00:21:45
I have this game lined at a nine point spread, meaning anything at the current spread of, uh, eight, I would play on Houston.
00:21:58
Um, I'm not betting this game on the spread this early.
00:22:02
I there's not much data.
00:22:04
So in the second week of the XFL, so I'm playing it safe.
00:22:07
I actually like the total better.
00:22:09
So that's the play that I'm going to make.
00:22:11
I will watch for life, but in opportunities with the second half betting as well, because I think that from watching 1/2 of this half this game or even 1/4 we're gonna learn a lot about how these teams look are looking to dictate the game watch out for that.
00:22:33
If you If I were to bet on a side, I would bet Houston at the current minus eight luck.
00:22:40
Because, as I mentioned, I have a game projected at night.
00:22:43
I had some people in here yesterday.
00:22:45
When I went through, I saw kind of briefly talk through.
00:22:48
I'm using a power rating.
00:22:50
Uh, model has gone.
00:22:54
I'm using a power rating model.
00:22:56
So I built in things to my model, such as, like market influence to know what fans or what they just thinks of each team going into the season.
00:23:09
I then will kind of outline the coaching staffs of every team to C rank from best to worst, where each of those teams lied because coaching and football is are important from there in calculating a lot of stats by and the other stats that are readily available in the NFL but unfortunate with except hell, because we are working with a bit more of a limited budget here and there's not as much media coverage.
00:23:40
We do not have those luxuries, but it actually gives me an opportunity to get back in really work with numbers on dhe, actually build something from the ground up from there.
00:23:50
I've manual adjustments for injuries in motivation.
00:23:54
So, as I mentioned for my two place today, um, I have the spread on the first game at six for the Dallas Renegades in the l A Wildcats.
00:24:05
I was spread on the second game at nine for ST Louis Battle Hawks in the Houston Roughnecks.
00:24:13
Sports news alert says I am a Battle Hawks fan, huh? Yeah, absolutely.
00:24:18
I have here the breakdown.
00:24:19
We have some other team members who are Battle Hawks fans.
00:24:24
I like with the Battle of Orcs.
00:24:26
Did I'm a bit hesitant to immediately jump on the bandwagon.
00:24:32
What I had going into the season, I add them as not a terrible team.
00:24:36
Um, kind of middle of the pack.
00:24:39
I have them ranked right now is my fifth or a team in the league.
00:24:44
Actually, while we have some time here, I will go through very briefly.
00:24:49
My power ratings thes air, what I had going into this week, so I have not taken a look at my stats.
00:24:55
I have them fifth.
00:24:56
Yes, Um, I have my power ratings.
00:25:01
Um, nothing has been affected by this week.
00:25:03
So yesterday's results I have not changed anything.
00:25:06
The number one team I have in the league I do of Houston, I have them as a slight advantage over the D C defenders who I haven't second on dhe.
00:25:15
Then I have them over Dallas.
00:25:19
I wouldn't say that Dallas is the number one team.
00:25:21
I don't think Dallas is the number one team.
00:25:23
I think Dallas also played with a backup quarterback.
00:25:26
You have a backup quarterback who goes one for 10 on third down on Diz getting pummeled.
00:25:32
I think it's going to be very hard for a team to win.
00:25:35
I think that Dallas is over the course of a season going to be one of the better teams.
00:25:39
But I don't think that in Week one with a backup quarterback when they were hoping toe have their starter play.
00:25:46
Um, we had them is the number one team.
00:25:49
I think that the battle Hawks out played last week.
00:25:53
I actually had them.
00:25:54
I bet on them I had them, uh, as an underdog play because I really liked him.
00:25:59
I didn't think they should have been as big an underdog as it were.
00:26:04
How old the playoffs work were there before teams.
00:26:09
Let's say I can pull that up Real quick.
00:26:14
XFL playoff schedule? Yes, looks like there will be four teams.
00:26:21
Two teams from the East, two teams from the West on and then they will face off in the XFL championship.
00:26:28
The first week of the playoffs will be the week of April, A weekend of April 18th and then the championship will be, uh, the following Sunday.
00:26:40
Yeah, it's just the best record.
00:26:42
So the top two East End teams the top two Western teams face off.
00:26:46
Um, and then the winner of each of those goes on to the championship.
00:26:52
I think they do have.
00:26:53
So the tie breakers are different in the XFL, um, than an L, which is important to note.
00:26:59
I'm gonna pull up the poll standings.
00:27:03
They have touchdown differential as a, um, Tiebreaker.
00:27:10
So if you look at the XFL standings on their Web site, you can see the TV plus minus.
00:27:17
That's because they're using the touchdown differential as a tiebreaker.
00:27:20
So if at the end of the season we had three teams, all with the same record, the two teams with the best touchdown differential would be the teams that are advancing to the class.
00:27:32
Unlike NFL, where it's like divisional record head to head matchups.
00:27:37
And there's all these different tiers of having a touchdown differential.
00:27:41
Makes a very cut.
00:27:43
Um, so sorry.
00:27:45
Went a little off track there, but back to my A ratings.
00:27:48
Houston, as the number one team in the league going into week two d.
00:27:52
C.
00:27:53
Is the number two team.
00:27:54
I have Dallas as the number three team.
00:27:56
From there, I have ST Louis is my number.
00:27:59
Actually, they're my number yet a Tampa, Tampa ST Louis in New York. All tied.
00:28:05
Um, so I guess we'll call that five.
00:28:08
You got four through six on my last two teams.
00:28:11
I have L.
00:28:12
A in Seattle, uh, as my two lowest teams ranked going into Week two.
00:28:17
Yesterday's results certainly shocked me in the Tampa Bagan.
00:28:21
They continue to be hit by just horrible locking variance.
00:28:25
You have a wide receiver drop a wide open touchdown in the end zone, and, uh, you have your backup quarterback or something.
00:28:36
Um, handle all to the opposing team in the end zone.
00:28:40
Um, scores for yesterday.
00:28:42
You had, let's say, Tampa Bay lost by I think I lost my six.
00:28:47
I'm gonna pull up here.
00:28:49
Um, I think they've lost us.
00:28:52
The Tampa Bay lost 17 to 9 yesterday to Seattle.
00:28:57
Tampa Bay was up 9 to, so they kicked a field goal.
00:28:59
They had a pick six, which was sick.
00:29:02
I was like 80 yards somewhere between 16 80 yards, and then Seattle scored 17.
00:29:08
Unanswered, including a play from Tampa Bay, was on their own one.
00:29:15
So they're backed up to their end zone and their quarterback didn't know how to throw a screen.
00:29:19
So rather than shuffling backwards, he stood still and tried to throw the ball over the defensive end.
00:29:25
And he caught it in his hands and was standing in the end zone for a pick six.
00:29:31
Um, I didn't know.
00:29:33
I watched all of this.
00:29:34
I watched 1/4 of the D C defenders.
00:29:37
That was early game D.
00:29:38
C.
00:29:39
Defenders blew out the New York audience I.
00:29:42
D.
00:29:43
C defenders as my bet yesterday played them at will.
00:29:50
I have the defenders of minus seven s o.
00:29:53
They won 27.
00:29:54
Nothing.
00:29:55
They showed that they're really strong, something to be as attending about with the sea defenders is that they cannot convert an extra point to save their life.
00:30:03
They can't score inside the red zone there.
00:30:06
Plays tend to come from explosive place.
00:30:09
So if we're in week five in D.
00:30:12
C.
00:30:13
Is playing a team and you think it might be a close game, Um, something to consider in that scenario would be that d.
00:30:18
C struggles to convert extra point there.
00:30:22
But, yeah, I was a pretty incredible game.
00:30:24
I really didn't see Seattle playing up that way.
00:30:27
I think they're the least talented coaching staff and police talented roster.
00:30:32
I think it will be.
00:30:34
We'll have some real good games today.
00:30:36
Um, so I like that, uh, Dallas in the first game.
00:30:40
I think that if l A is unable to figure everything out, I think that it could get ugly, um, fast, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they had struggled on fire the defensive coordinator.
00:30:55
So game number one might play is Dallas minus half.
00:31:00
So if you're hearing a noise a bolt when Dr Aaron here chewing on bones, um, we have in Game two we of the ST Louis Battle Hawks taking on the Houston Roughnecks and that although I have the game lined at nine, I'm respecting ST Louis enough to not play against them, even though I think that, um, the spread should be a little bit bigger than they are.
00:31:24
I like, and I what I locked in was under 48.
00:31:27
I think that is a very safe bet because you have two teams with clashing styles of play, and I think that they'll be able to grind it out in a lower scoring game.
00:31:37
Um, I think there are a great life betting opportunities in the second match up with ST Louis in Houston.
00:31:43
Given that bowl teams have very distinct styles.
00:31:47
But if you see one teen style of play playing into how you expected, perhaps you can back them.
00:31:53
Or if you think that he might make a comeback, that's another opportunity there.
00:31:59
That's all we've got for this week for Week two.
00:32:03
Action, Um, let me see if I've got anything else.
00:32:06
I don't think lines air out yet for a week.
00:32:08
Three based off for what I have going into Week two.
00:32:15
I have the games for next week, so next week's names we've got uh, Houston Roughnecks traveling to take on the Tampa Bay Vipers.
00:32:23
I had that projected I spread of three so Vipers would be a three point underdog at home.
00:32:30
Depending on the result of today.
00:32:32
I think that could open as high as six.
00:32:34
I think that the public is going to be very pessimistic on the Tampa Bay Vipers, who continue to not be able to score a touchdown in the red zone or actually touch on period.
00:32:45
Um, on the offensive side of the ball second game is the Dallas Renegades at the Seattle Dragons.
00:32:52
I have that lined as Seattle is a six point home underdog.
00:32:57
If Dallas wins today, I think that will see it probably around five.
00:33:03
If Dallas loses, I think that they're gonna get crazy and we'll probably see like that spread of somewhere around three.
00:33:10
Um, and I think that it will be too over reactionary for on Seattle's win this week, Dallas is lost.
00:33:19
Uh, next week I have New York Guardians traveling to ST Louis to take on the Battle hawks and the battle.
00:33:25
Hawkes is a two point favorite that's probably gonna open up at four, maybe even five which based off how the Guardians played yesterday.
00:33:35
I'm sure when I update my numbers based off the statistics that I will be somewhere in that range is well, I think that the battle ox will really put it on The Guardian six week on, then the last match up for next week is the D C defenders traveling to Los Angeles to take on the L A Wild Cats.
00:33:55
I have the Wildcats lined as a six and 1/2 point underdog here.
00:34:00
If the Wildcats lose today, this game's opening at 10 points.
00:34:04
Uh, D.
00:34:05
C put up 27 points and allowed zero.
00:34:08
This week, they put up 31 points.
00:34:11
Last week you were seeing gonna see it easily.
00:34:14
Um, open as a 10 and 1/2 maybe even 11 point spread.
00:34:18
What's up? Morning, Um, next week.
00:34:21
So that's all I got for a week to take a quick look ahead to Week three.
00:34:25
Maybe I'll hop on this week to do a quick stream breakdown the lines a little bit earlier breakdown, injury news or the results of weak tip.
00:34:34
I hope that you enjoy the stream again.
00:34:36
The stream is brought to you by the breakdown sports I started breakdown sports last January.
00:34:41
We've been running for a little over a year.
00:34:43
Now we have three podcasts.
00:34:45
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You can search the breakdown Sports the breakdown One word T h e b r k D W pen Sports on Spotify Apple Anywhere they listen.
00:34:59
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00:35:00
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00:35:03
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00:35:12
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Our website is well www dot the breakdown sports dot com t h e b r k d w n sports dot com We've got content for all different sports up there.
00:35:24
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00:35:31
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00:35:32
W We always have spots of stuff going on social media channels, best bets.
00:35:37
We give up fantasy advice, and we always respond to, um, all of our messages, um, comments and interactions.
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So I really appreciate the support.
00:35:47
Best of luck out there.
00:35:49
Enjoy some football first game, kicking off in about three and 1/2 hours two and 1/2 hours on then the game in this evening.
00:35:58
So enjoy those that spend some time with friends.
00:36:00
Family watched him XFL today and have a good one.
00:36:03
Okay, piece.

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