All right. Good morning, everyone.
Uh, didn't start a little bit later than planned today, but gonna go through some XFL action that we have on Slate for bowl today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow, There's still some injury concerns.
More death position, offensive line, uh, D line wide receiver that I'm watching.
So I'm a little bit more hesitant on what I have going out for tomorrow.
But with what we have for today, there are plenty of options.
First game up, coming up in about 30 minutes here.
Seattle Dragons at the D. C. Defenders.
Spread as of now is seven and 1/2 I believe.
Let me pull up Pinnacle here.
I think we might be seven.
We are at seven for the line to that pinnacle.
Heads minus seven to the defenders.
That +105 guardians plus seven at minus 1 22 Meaning you can probably find a mind of seven and 1/2 if you want to get a minus 1 10 or if you simply don't have access to Pinnacle Books.
Second game coming up today is the Tampa Bay Vipers at the Seattle Dragons.
That is gone at 4 p.m.
Eastern four PM Central S Oh, that'll be the late game for today.
Spread on that game right now is actually down to one.
Um, that game opened up around three.
But because of some injury concerns with the Tampa Bay Vipers, that line has moved there.
First game will break down.
We're gonna go through the Guardians and DC defenders.
As I mentioned, that is a spread of seven.
I see a slight edge here with the D C defenders, DC defenders.
I have this spread projected at a seven and 1/2 meaning I think that they should be favored by seven and 1/2.
Giving yourself about 1/2 point there with over what concerns me about the Guardians is the depth issues that they will have.
Guardians are gonna be without their starting center, and they're starting right guard in a start of league that can be very detrimental.
You don't know what kind of offensive line depth the Guardians have, even in the NFL.
When I'm losing to starting offensive lineman, I'm typically adjusting my spread too, and after three points, not knowing a lot about the XFL in the death level that the Guardians have with their talent pool.
That offensive line.
I've only given them a two point adjustment to the spread on the other side of things you have.
C came out firing last week, and although they kind of stuttered a little bit, the team looked good.
There team that I really like.
They are high powered offense, and I think that today's matchup could get ugly.
Guardians have one of the more talented, uh, defense is especially along the defensive backfield with their DBS, but I think that the Guardians are going to lose this one by greater than touchdown.
BC was just really strong and weak one.
I think that another week of the play calling their Cardell Jones working with the team, getting that in line because they really started off slow.
I think that this could be a big game for them.
So that is my pick for the first game, going with the UH D C defenders minus seven, only 1/2 point edge.
But I do like that game.
I just don't trust the guardians the way that the Guardians played the first week is not sustainable in today's NFL.
Uh, let me real quickly pull up some of my stats I have here.
I have the Guardians that minus one turnover margin, said, actually lost.
They gave up one more turnover than they secured.
They only held the ball for 45% of the game in their time of possession.
It's good for third worst in the league.
One thing is that they did have a high points per play, so for some reason the Guardians were not calling lot place.
They were in a very, very slow offense.
They were in the slowest offense in the league last week.
Calling an offensive are running an offensive play every 35.
I think that is something to watch because if they go against D, C. D. C.
Was one of the quicker teams last week, I think that could be an issue.
C also help the ball for 50% of their game last week against Seattle.
If they are able to hold that all like that, I really like D C D.
A great crowd last week playing believe that play out the field where the, um, the MLS to D C United play s Oh, it's a little bit of a smaller venue.
They're easier for the crowd noise as opposed to one, these gargantuan NFL fields that some of the other teams are playing on some last quick hit stats.
I want to touch on about the defender's here defenders, although they get very well against the Dragons, they were always going for one.
They old in with the extra points is gonna be a big thing for me and my team with Howie Andy CAPP is the percentage of extra points that team is able to capture.
They went for 13 times.
They only converted once, and they went for 21 time did not convert, so I'd be a little bit concerned there with D. C.
Just something to be mindful of with them, but they didn't have any major issues with turnovers.
It'd throw two interceptions last week, so it wasn't a terrible game.
Cardale Jones was really letting the ball loose.
They were really testing that Seattle Dragons defense 300 net yards last week. For the defenders.
They were average 5.
3 yards per play But the metric that I'm more interesting is their points per plant.
Was the top team in their points per class.
They were averaging a point for 0.
55 points per play.
So what? That says for every play they ran, say every two place they ran that scored one point, which is pretty incredible for a startup league like this.
I'm gonna switch over to the other side of things here and take a look at the New York Guardians.
Let me pull up some stats.
That kind of made me my weary of them guardians to start.
They had 226 yards and all of week one.
That's not going to get it done this week against D.
They're gonna need to put up members to even keep this one close.
They do have a really strong defense.
I had mentioned that they were ableto stop the Vipers from scoring, but the same time they were getting gas for yards, they gave up 400 yards for, uh, do the Vipers last week, even though the Vipers never put the ball into the end zone, Um, the guardians were a little bit more successful.
It converted, which is going to be a big thing for them this year.
There they're rushing inside wth e Renzo was actually really shrunk against the Vipers.
They convert two of their three extra points last week, all of their extra points attempted were only for one point, just something to be mindful of their They did not get after the quarterback at all. No SATs.
If you're letting Cardale Jones run around for free in this league, uh, you might have a bit of an issue, so that's gonna be somethingto watch there, moving on to the second game that we have today.
A Zay mentioned second game is going to be the Tampa Bay Vipers taking on the Seattle Dragons.
It's going down in Seattle.
This one kind of baffles.
May I keep seeing this line number? This number drop and I keep hitting.
Tampa back hit Tampa Bay at minus three plus one of five earlier in the week, and I just hit them again this morning at minus one and 1/2 minus 1 10 I do not care that they are a pro team.
They are the better team.
I do not care that they do not have their starting quarterback even without their starting quarterback.
I think that this is a strong team because of the injuries that you have on the Seattle side.
Seattle has As of this morning, um, all this is pulled as of 6 a.m.
This morning, the Dragons were going to be without their starting left tackle.
There, right guard had not practiced all week in their center was doubtful.
So when I'm working with injury grades, I've used it in percentiles.
So out is a 0% chance of plant doubt.
Foolish 25 probables 50 Questionable is 75.
Those last question was 50 in, uh, the probable 75.
But that really concerns me.
With the dragon's eye on Liam affecting their spread for a minus one hit, even though they could potentially have three starting offensive lineman they're playing without.
That could be a major issue.
If they go in without their starting center, they're starting left tackle, starting rights guard, their entire offense of once ****ed.
There's no continuity if you're losing a key player, especially your left tackle in the start of Lee Protecting your Q B's blindside.
You're losing your right guard, which is where you're gonna run a lot of your drop plays and you're quick rushes off the middle and your center is doubtful.
Lt's a snapper being doubtful and weak to be very problematic for a team because of the continuity between these young Q B's and three centers that they are lining up underneath on the other side.
I'd be remiss to mention if I didn't talk about Aaron Murray being out.
Aaron Murray being out.
I have affecting the spread for three point it.
I'm overreacting significantly on that.
I really don't think Aaron Murray is worth three points to a spread, Um, quarterbacks who are worth three points to spread in the NFL.
I included, like Drew Brees.
Um, in the first few weeks after he was out, um, brothels burger for literally like a minute before it makes him.
Rudolph showed he was somewhat capable trying.
Think of other Cuba's.
I hit for three points in the one town Cam Newton very briefly was a three point hit, but they were able Thio put some numbers up so I quickly referred to that.
But it's rare for me to adjust three points for quarterback, the for me in the handicapping and offensive lineman being down or having a cluster injury.
So if you lost two or three wide receivers, that would be more impactful than just losing a quarterback.
Also, I'm really struck high on Tampa Bay this year.
I think they had a really ****ty game where they could not figure anything out.
I love Marc Trestman.
I like the offense, play pollen they have.
They run a super fast paced, efficient offense, and that is what is going to win games in this league.
I do not believe that is something that Jim Zorn, the head coach of the Seattle Dragons, have has.
There's minimal coaching experience, so minimal coaching experience on their side.
I just hired a big name from CIA.
Jim Zorn was a former Seattle Seahawks quarterback, and they brought him back before this, his last significant coaching experience.
Let's pull this up here.
I want it was like 2012.
Um, yeah, he was a Q B coach for the Kansas City Chiefs in the 11 4012 season, and I literally could not tell you who the quarterback waas that point.
He was the quarterbacks coach with the Ravens and 2000 tense.
We were Flaco, uh, nothing really sticking out with May play calling didn't impress mate on Week one from Seattle.
I know they put up 19 points, and I know the Vipers only put up three, but I really like the Vipers.
I think you're getting a great buy.
Low opportunity, the VIPs.
Another thing to talk about.
What the Vipers is the opportunity to, uh, by early on them.
This is their second straight.
If they lose this week, I think I still think the bikers are one most talented teams.
I think they have the most talented are one of the most talented coaching rosters in the XFL this year.
If they go down this week, I really like them Thio a za future play.
If you could get them at right now, I have seen prices around plus 6 50 if you can.
If they lose this week and we're talking plus eight under, you gotta take that to the bank.
Tampa Bay Vipers are in this for the long haul.
I have them right now as my fourth best team, Um, and my Rankin's.
I actually have Seattle as my absolute worst team, which is why I'm comfortable playing a backup Q B going in on the road.
Quinton Flowers had a great career and USF It's actually funny that we could potentially see a U.
S F Q B versus U.
F Q B in this matchup today.
Um, because that that bill interesting.
Seattle's Brandon Silvers is their starting quarterback.
He had an ankle injury.
He should be good to play, but he did come out in the fourth quarter is something to be mindful of.
Their, um, some stats too quickly.
Run through on this match up, and then I'll run through my power rankings for the league.
I can open up to any questions that people might have if you want, start hitting those in the chat, and then I can start to run through some stuff for Sunday tomorrow.
That way, you guys are prepared.
I will do another stream tomorrow morning, probably a little bit earlier to make sure we will uncover some stuff.
So, as I mentioned, because I'm back in the Vipers.
I'm gonna go with their side.
First they put up 400 yards.
There weren't 71 place I was a second most place ran in the league last week.
I think I'm gonna pull the numbers here where we, uh they ran the second most class.
The only team that ran more plays.
Houston Roughnecks they roughnecks for and 74 place the Vipers.
Aaron said, This is important.
No, When you're talking about pace, you're trying project because we're only a week to a little too early to start projecting totals.
At this point, I'm literally just looking at spreads.
So they ran a lot of remind ran a lot of fights.
They convert 19 1st downs.
I think that's first in the league, unfortunately, except al website doesn't make it too easy to compare across teams.
But 19 1st dance, nothing to balk at the converted third downs and 50% clip, so that could certainly be improved.
But they were fishing on the ground.
They ran 30 times for 150 yards, averaging five yards per carry, their passing yards.
I look in that passing yards because you have to account for sacks that 250 net through the air.
They had 50% completion rate.
So if they're able to do a little bit better, limit the interceptions, as they had to last week.
I really like the Vipers, and they could absolutely blow the doors off Seattle.
To that, the Seattle sighed a sigh.
Do want talk about both sides of this pulling up their stats here.
She didn't put up 310 yards, so that's not that's not terrible at all that they did of 19 1st downs, mostly through the air.
They were actually pretty efficient for the air.
They, uh, but they were really short passes.
So something with those dump off offenses that makes it challenging to mount to come back.
They average five and 1/2 yards per pass last week average there.
They netted 210 yards through the air rushing.
They had 100 yards on 21 carries, so about four and 1/2 points are four and 1/2 yards per attempt.
So they're yards per play just under five.
So it's not like they had a terrible offense.
It's just that they its tail, it is a offense out of the early two thousands in the NFL.
I do not think that that is going to be six, sustainable over a 10 week.
See, um, and I'm ready to start fading them as earliest week to just a few things to touch on with the efficiency numbers that I calculate myself.
Bowl teams have a positive one, so that is good there towards the top of the league.
The Vipers held the ball longer than any other team, almost 60%. Again.
If they can choke out Seattle defense with that, keep them on the field.
For if the SEAL defense is on the field for 60 in the game, they are, uh, the Seattle Dragons held the ball for 50% of last week's cape.
What really concerns me about the Dragons is they're very low points per play.
They ran a lot of plays, considering only scored 19 points.
Obviously, the Vipers only put up 13 3 points.
Eso their points for play is really bad, but that's just something to be mindful of.
When you look at that, the Vipers actually bring in a little bit of a slower offense, but I think it's just that they were.
They had so many more.
It's a place they held evolved so much longer.
The Vipers average to play every 31 seconds, whereas the Dragons were at about 29 a half Second.
Don't put too much stock into that.
This is just one week's worth of data.
So you do need Thio, Consider some of the noise involved with the static.
So again, just recapping my place for today.
I'm rolling with the D C defenders.
Uh, you can get that at minus seven.
You can get a minus seven and 1/2 if you're looking for it'll that Jews here.
Um, let me do a quick shop around with some numbers you got about at minus seven.
You have been online.
Probably gonna be right around there.
My bookie is at minus seven.
Um, and Penny is at minus seven as well.
So seems like seventh or painted across the board, but because it's a minus seven plus 105 I know that you could get, um, a probably even a smaller number.
You can probably get a minus six and 1/2 minus 1 15 I'd say that moving from a seven to a six and 1/2 in the XFL is worth about 20 cents s O.
I would play on minus six and 1/2 that minus 1 15 I wouldn't play it at eighth and juicier than that second game.
The Vipers and Dragons.
I'm rolling with the Vipers.
As I mentioned that played him early in the week.
I grabbed him at minus three out of minus 15 and I grabbed them again this morning at a minus one and 1/2 minus 1 10 pennies now down to minus one minus 109 I love the Vipers.
I talked about the reasons support them even though they are rolling with a backup quarterback.
I just think that Marc Trestman on that coaching staff is prepared for this.
And they've practiced the entire week without Aaron Murray.
And murder didn't impress me a ton.
He didn't impress me a lot in the XFL.
He took a what are the f? He took a little while to get his feet under him in the eye, and I think that's what we might say here.
I think having Quinton flowers um, the more mobile to be out there.
I think it is going to be a good play for the Vipers.
I think they're gonna throw some interesting looks at Seattle in Seattle.
Might not know how to handle that.
I know Seattle's gonna have a great crowd out there, so there's gonna be a home field effect of that.
Um, actually regarding home field advantage in the XFL right now, buying everything as a too.
So I'm giving all home teams in additional two points to benefit their spread.
Because conventional wisdom and XFL is that you give three points.
I don't give a clean three points across the board. I have teams.
The San Diego Chargers.
I think I have, like a one and 1/2 for two.
Whereas some teams like traffic, a good winter team.
The Packers probably get four points in my PARA ratings in NFL in the winter because the Colts in with the New England Patriots, So I look at home field advantage is very variable or fluid method because we're so early in the XFL.
I'm rolling with a two point home advantage home field advantage for all teams, so that is factored into my projected spread.
My projected spread for this Viper's game today is a four us.
That means I have Seattle projected at plus four anything better than a plus or minus four.
I would play on the Viper side.
The first game I've projected at a minus seven D C minus seven and 1/2 on the actual spread is D. C minus seven.
So I have a little bit of a niche there with defenders.
Have a sizable edge with the pipers just running real quick through my power rating.
Seeing what I've got in terms of teams, that who's the top and who's at the bottom.
After one week of action, I bring some market influence into my numbers.
So I used some metrics that tell me what the market thinks of them.
So maybe you think of futures or win totals.
Or maybe it's just that I've put something together through seeing fan interactions on Twitter, Um, using basically a sentiment index to try and pull that.
And so right now I have based off Week one performance and what I added.
Going into the season, I have the Houston Roughnecks as the strongest human league.
I've been projected to win seven and 1/2 games of the 10 minute season.
Yes, I understand.
Seven and 1/2 is not something that can actually happen.
But in order to put one team above another, my power rating win totals actually go by 1/4 win influence.
You can think of it as quarters, if you wanted.
That helps you sleep at night.
I personally just use the Italy of France A t my second best team. I have the d.
That's why I like them today.
Third, I have doubts, Renegades.
I do have a little bit of it against the dollar timing.
It's Landry Jones is coming back tomorrow in its first week, so I'm actually dropping their spread minus one.
Um, giving them minus one.
It's gonna take a little bit for Landry Jones to get caught up to speed because he didn't practice a lot this preseason through the training camps or through the preseason practices.
Um, I like the Dallas Renegades.
I think that good coaching staff, they're the strongest coaching staff in the leg.
They're my number. Third team overall.
Number four team is the Tampa Bay Vipers.
Kind of interesting that I have a team number four when they put up three points and they lost it.
But these are my numbers.
I like the Vipers.
I like them before the season started, like coaching staff.
And, yes, I do have them taking a hit for Aaron Murray.
Do you have them taking a slight hit based off last week? ****ty performance.
So, actually, today am I dropped the Tampa Bay spread about four points.
If I remove my overrides from their bad performance in there.
UM, Week one result.
Bad performance in the injury.
I have this game projected a Seattle plus eight.
So I clearly think Tampa Bay is head and shoulders above Seattle.
Um, let me go back and adjust that.
So I don't forget all my manual adjustments I have.
So now I have it back to a projected spread before next the number five team.
I have two teams tied for five of the ST Louis Battle Hawks from New York.
Very stout defense.
Battle hawks were able to control the pace of play against a team that many thought would be considerably better than that battle Hawks can impress with, and I'm not gonna overreact from a single game.
So that's where of those two teams.
After that, I have the L. A. Wild Cats.
They're my second towards team in the league.
You fire coach after Week one.
You have troubles with getting players interested to stay on your team.
I'm gonna be a little bit hesitant to back you on.
Then the last place team I have in this lady's Seattle Dragons.
They have the least experienced coaching staff.
They have the team that impressed me the least on Dhe.
They have some offensive line injuries already weak, too.
So that's what I've got for power readings because we're about five minutes to kick on this first game.
I mean, I am gonna sign off, Let everyone get to those games, get some viewing in, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter or whether it's myself or any of my team.
Our team, our Twitter handles at the underscore breakdown that has felt the th e underscore brk.
While I just threw this stream together, kind of at the last minute, wanting to get a product out there for all of our XFL fans I do have it were next week we'll have a little bit more branding on her channel.
We'll have a little bit more so, actually, probably as early as tomorrow morning.
I have a little bit more on this.
I will do another breakdown tomorrow morning.
You can find me on Twitter at Gordon von Denham.
Geo are D o N e o N d e And I am act court in Bonn, Denham Or at the underscore breakdown.
Check out our website.
Uh, I'm bringing this to you from the breakdown sports.
We've been up and running for about a year now.
We don't have XFL content up on our side.
Will you have a reaction piece A week? One.
I'll start posting my numbers on my site.
I just wanted to test them week, one week, too, and very small, um, quantities here, so I didn't want to release it.
Widely available to the public.
I'm using the same process I used when I handed kept NFL.
My NFL model through 14 weeks, went 62.
5% against spread on 180 games.
So a very high sample size I used the same process.
I was calculating all of these stats for exit alibi and because that's where we're at.
But XFL, I think there's a good opportunity right now for those with the knowledge, those with the data and those of the information to gain an edge on the oddsmakers.
Thistle's about as level playing field as you're going to get in the sports betting world.
And I think that you should really take advantage of that.
Um, so I'm gonna That's all I've got for today.
I'm gonna sign off.
Let everyone, uh, check out these games.
There's also lets college basketball action going on today.
There's hawking games.
We have early games today and the NHL, so a lot of sports went on.
Hope everyone has a great Saturday.
Has a great weekend.
I'll be back tomorrow morning to break down the two games for tomorrow.
We'll be looking at, uh, the Dallas Renegades at the Los Angeles Wildcats in the Battle Hawks at the Houston Roughnecks.
So I'll do another street tomorrow morning.
Probably Ming will probably do a reaction stream at 23 numbers because I read you have this projected will just need to update with two stats.
So I got signing out.
Have a great weekend piece