What's up, everybody? It's Thursday afternoon.
That means it's time for you to get down with the breakdown Sports for lines breakers, FC weekend match preview and best bets All three of us here today.
First time in a week and a half.
So I'm glad to have everyone back the full crews here.
We have a nice long you wait for a break with Champions League and Europa League coming up, they're off until February.
So for the next month and a half, the three of us will just be breaking down Syria.
Um, the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga.
Whatever league in Europe you wanna talk about hit us up in the comments with your questions.
If you have a best bet for the weekend, we love those chime those in there as well.
Check us out on our website at the breakdown sports dot com and follow us on Twitter at b r k d w n underscore Sports as your usual Rex A.
J and Joey here a j How you doing? Good.
A little sad about midweek result, but like you stated excited for domestic thio be around and hopefully uh, turning around.
What about you, Joey? Be how we feel in today.
Happy? Uh, good results, I think for some of us or gambling.
Wise team wise, decent results.
Rex is happy interests out of the Champions League.
We're just gonna focus domestic league only for the next couple weeks, I guess. Six weeks.
So hopefully get some consistency going and can, right? Keep up the winning weeks.
But you got the fresh the via jersey on today.
So you're still in the champions.
You know, you're the wolf supporter, but is the severe jersey a sign of allegiance as your La Liga team? Or did you buy it? Because it's nice? It was one of those barter.
Should they should be random jersey.
This is the one that came.
So But I'm pleased with it.
So maybe I'll have toe fully, uh, swear my allegiances to ah la Liga team.
Was that, like, away days Or which one was it? Eso way days Definitely watching the stream.
They know the only time all three of us were on the same play was for severe.
They send us a V ticket so way they shout out to them.
They have some good deals.
They don't sponsor us.
So I shouldn't say their name anymore. But they want Thio.
We're all about it.
Alright, so let's get some quick hitters of what we've seen over the past week, Um or just stuff we're noticing in general now for maybe breaking down some more of these teams.
Let's start it off with the U.
Men's national team just thrashing El Salvador last night.
Yeah, all Salvador look pretty terrible, but that was nowhere near, uh the U. S. A is a team.
A bunch of guys got some runs for their not their first caps, but usually wouldn't get one in this time.
The December window isn't normal.
The team put up sticks.
It was a fun ass game to watch.
Got to union players in there and send the Mackenzie in there.
So I was definitely happy watching that.
But I don't know for all three seeds to get them going, Always stack winds like this could never complain about a result And how dominating it looked last night.
Yeah, I remember flipping it on in the 25th minute.
I think it was five. Nothing.
So I'm surprised, didn't put up double digits or something like that.
But, hey, we'll take a December victory is always a good thing.
Yeah, definitely. Goodwin.
I think, even if you don't have the main guys.
And I think just building that culture of winning games, you should and dominate games you should is really helpful.
And even though you didn't suit up for us, But if you didn't see McKinney's goal yet for for, um A and the Champions League, just watch it already.
It's filthy, All right.
J what you see from this past week? Well, usually, Rex is the person who rents here.
But I guess I'll have a little rant freaking Manchester United.
The most inconsistent club you'll see across Europe one day.
We're beating city to nothing.
Next week, we're dropping out of the Champions League.
Um, it is ridiculous.
I don't know what our team formation was.
I don't know what the tactics were.
Um, I guess the thing I learned is I guess we're kind of frauds.
I mean, the biggest game of the season.
And I think we were in it for a solid, like, five minutes, maybe.
Um and that's it.
That's my take. I'm very disappointed with United.
I think you were in it for the first five minutes in the last five minutes, and the rest were just dominated by by Leipzig, sadly, teacher.
Yeah, so I took the try not to spoil the best bets, but United.
It's their defense.
It seems like in every single game, I'm not sure when the last time they kept a clean sheet was against a team not named West Brum.
Congrats on that.
And that's where the team just isn't meshing.
Well, their offense is their in some sorts, the wrote.
The midfield rotating may be good for the amount of games that they're having, but they just don't have any consistency, it seems in the top five, so that's where maybe it's with the Games.
But if they could get some consistency with that, that's when United was cruising last season, where, where Fernandez was the solid guy in there hope I was kind of just on the bench the whole time and now it seems like he's definitely leaving.
Maybe we could get a Jays quick thoughts on that, but with United clean up the defense of work, your games air going over the total every single time.
Um, you have to shoot out their fun, But you gotta be more clinical defensively.
And it just seems like they were completely unprepared for, like, language.
Yes, it's a hard team to game plan against.
And, yes, it's a different system that you do not see in the Premier League.
But you gotta be able to do that at home to advance.
You lay an egg like that.
Not a great sign for the or not a great feeling for the fans.
Yeah, and I'm living proof of it. Very disappointed.
Lost sleep over it.
But we move Joey B.
I love the topic you brought today.
So feed me, all of it.
I may be pandering a little bit.
Corrects Here, uh, first thing that came to my mind, but yeah, I mean, ****nal really bad team right now, because, like I initially over the weekend, like, right after they lost the time, I thought people calling for our Ted up to be fired thought they were a little jumping the gun a little early.
More you think about it.
They've been in just horrendous form Um, since the season started, I think that after they won the F A Cup over Chelsea, right? And I think since then it's people have been really high on them and it's just not paid off.
Well, I think they're in 15th place, maybe 14th.
Um, I may be wrong in that somewhere down there.
Not not where they should be, but, yeah, just over the season, over 10 goals over the season, but two goals in the last five games, that's not very good.
They've only scored more than two once, and that was against Fulham.
So, uh, just their offense has been pretty atrocious so far.
Their last two wins against Sheffield and everyone's favorite team, Manchester United, which I find pretty funny, Um, and then last.
I think party Thomas party being injured really hurts the midfield, and then I think they're just wingbacks.
They're really weak.
Um, Bella Rain And whoever plays on the other side, I think they rotate some guys over there.
But, um, just not not sticking to our Texas game plan, it seems, or Arteta can adapt to his game plan.
Um, but yeah, just ****nal are bad, and it doesn't look to be getting any better if their offense just can't create chances.
It's not like there's unlucky and scoring goals.
They're just not even getting an opportunity opportunity to score a goal.
Yeah, and I think you highlighted it.
And I think it seems like every stream for last four weeks or so.
It's just There are offenses terrible in there, just recycling the ball, and they're not really pushing and attacking forward as they should with their weapons.
But sad, sad if you guys follow us for a while.
I had ****nal very high hopes, but Rex was on the other side so I could see him smiling as this topic was brought up.
Yeah, it's just where, I mean, it's kind of reminiscence of less last season where they started extremely poor or not.
I mean, not that this badly, but they definitely more.
They're barely top 10 team for a little bit of the season last year, so maybe they'll figure it out and put it together as the more goes along.
But, um from that's where just seeing how last season went and the players that they had, it's not like they had some young studs or a bunch throughout the pitch that are growing up.
And this was gonna be there next year.
They had a bunch of aging guys.
They're bringing William.
So that's where I think the media or maybe everyone just brought into the recency bias because we didn't see soccer for four months and then they're like, Oh, man, ****nal's fun again.
Let's pipe up this team.
But yeah, that over points total at 64.
5 is making me feel really good right now.
Um, because I got that on there and that's where this team they saw some strides to get.
Uh, not really sure it's going to be there.
The answer up top because, like Izzet and a Bomb, Yang aren't the youngest guys ever and A.
I know that bomb yang your Golden Boot winner, but mine isn't doing much better, so I can talk about that.
But yeah, you are so high on the ****nal hype.
I thought I was going to be proven wrong because I didn't see anyone else hating on the mess hard, so I take a lot of pride and being the first ****nal hate for no reason.
I just didn't think they're gonna be as good as everyone thought they were going to be.
Props to you for calling out the frauds of ****nal.
Who added the Burnley plus 5.
30 this weekend? I think, Uh, definitely something that Yeah, I think definitely.
I mean, throw up.
Taco will run on their plus 5 30 for Burnley! Burnley, I mean, is low as low can be.
I guess they got a result at Everton.
But man, like I wish there was a decent plus 1.
5 out there because I think that would be a good good peace even for a parley.
I don't see ****nal winning this game by two goals, but plus 5 30 Put five bucks on it.
I don't know. Do some with exit.
More often than not, that may come in.
That's a small Taco Bell running, at least for me, because $5 You know, I know it's cheap, but yeah, that's where Yeah, Maybe we'll talk about this game a little bit more.
Uh, it is our Premier Li preview time, so this is a good one to start at no official place here.
Maybe Joey B will lock it in, Uh, if he feels like it, and we'll tweet it out.
But the Burnley plus 5 30 is definitely a little enticing, but we gotta stay with United.
Let's talk about the Manchester Darby A.
J will kick it off and started with you.
Yeah, So United States City at home.
Um, I believe it is the Saturday afternoon slot, so you'll get it in before college football.
Or at least a little bit of it in.
Um, I think this story has been repeated over and over again.
Is when Ali has his back at the wall? United get results.
We see that time after time again.
Um, there's a lot of calls for him to be sacked.
Just cause the biggest match season.
You don't come through eso.
I do expect united to put up some fight.
Uh, they are missing Cavani and Marshall laptop.
So you'll see rash word.
Greenwood, Um, a top which didn't look as clean and Chris against Leipzig, but hopefully will be different against city.
Yeah, I think, uh, e don't know.
I think city had I mean, I guess first off, coming off a huge Champions League game.
The team you want to face is definitely not Man City.
So I think United's in a pretty tough spot, um, to start.
But I think Deborah and I got to rest Guerra's back.
Um, I would tend to lean with what A J said, but I think City may get all three points here in e Don't know if it will be.
I think it'll be a good game.
It will be more exciting than some of the big games we've seen recently that have ended 001 Nothing.
I think we definitely will see some fireworks here, but in terms of a side, I would definitely I think City will get all three points here.
But like I just said, when everyone doubts, man you when everyone doubts Ole, that seems to be when he gets a result.
So, um yeah, it will be.
I mean, I must watch game.
Probably one of the best of the weekend.
So definitely will tune in for that.
Quick, quick question for you both.
So you have the park of a drama? Um, he comes in midweek.
He makes a big difference.
What do you do with them.
Do you play them? Do you bench? Um What your thoughts.
Depends with what strategy? What and how they're gonna decide that they're going to attack city because that he's just going to possess the ball.
And Pogba Is he the best guy to go in for tackles? Is he the best guy to counter attack? And he is he one That's gonna be fine without the ball at his feet A lot.
Usually you see Pogba come off the bench in those games, try to provide that late spark when he has fresher legs.
So I think he comes off the bench.
But with that midfield rotating, you never know.
I think, uh, I know like you want to start your best players, but he seems like a guy who may do better off the bench, maybe get ah, little better use out of them, But bring him on a little early into the second half and you'll get a good run from him because I think starting he may like be a little complacent. Whatever.
If he comes off the bench, you may be going out trying to prove himself right away.
So what I see with this matches What? Something.
I believe you stated this in one of our previous episodes.
You know, I just think of home right now.
I don't know what it iss, um, and they laid the egg against Leipzig.
And then now you have your biggest match.
Your biggest rival.
What are you gonna do? Show me what you have.
So that's where everything points to the narrative of Back up against the wall.
Let's see what they can dio, um, cities listed at minus 1.
Road favorites there.
I'm not going to touch on the total just because you have a player, man and best bets.
But yeah, with the spread, you can get a half goal for United right now, plus money.
I think everyone's just gonna be pounding city.
So I think this line is definitely gonna move because I don't see a lot of people liking United this weekend, which is a great contrary.
Inside the play, I'd wait closer to match time because this line is just gonna move in city's favor so you could get a nicer line on United.
All right, Joey be Everton vs Chelsea Coming here Chelsea there are They're not as short as as I was hoping for them to be there at minus 1 30.
Everton's plus 3.
24 home dogs, Your total over three.
Here is a game where you think there could be a lot of goals just given the away favorite um, angle that I like to follow.
But with Everton and Chelsea's current defense other than DLC, who is confident that that can finish right now for them.
But Charleston isn't really doing it that well and with how clinical.
Chelsea's defense playing DLC is getting a lot of balls where he's latching onto and just dunking home.
So that's where is.
Is Chelsea going to give him those opportunities with Chelsea's up top? It's a lot like United.
You're not too sure who's gonna be in there.
Hopefully Pulis, which looks like he's finally back.
So it's great to see him play, but like it's took a nick in the last weekend.
So that sucks to see for him because I like seeing him there alongside Pulis at you and then they kind of play the same position.
It is what it is.
Um, but in this match, um, I definitely like the Chelsea side here at minus 1 30.
It's a nice play if you want to do it.
I don't like it because I think it's good.
According to an implied probability, it should be the the value slightly on Everton.
But given their recent form, I have no confidence in backing Everton here.
So I'm staying away.
Maybe play alive over if the first few minutes are, uh, if you could get, like a two or 2.
5 that b'more enticing.
But I don't think this game goes over three.
Yeah, I couldn't couldn't agree more total I don't have a say on, especially with the way Chelsea's defense is playing, and you never knew they could score forward again.
They may win this game one.
Nothing, um, but also agree Everton, besides being, uh, Fulham 22 games ago, they haven't won since they beat Brighton for 22 and that was October 3rd.
So they've been they've been 1234567 Besides the win at with again or win away to Fulham.
It's been eight games since they're gonna win, so I wouldn't bet on them to get a win here.
They may pull out a result.
Uh, just a hard thing again.
Same thing with Chelsea minus 1 25.
Not something I want to back, but something I noticed.
There's a kind of shortish favorites in the e p l this week.
Um, Southampton, Tottenham, Chelsea.
All kind of look enticing, but just waiting a little bit too much use for my liking.
And, uh, e p l kind of head to head, especially the way the season's gone.
Um, kind of ups and downs, but yeah, I think Chelsea, I think should get the wind.
Just a matter of how do you think they'll do it, I guess.
Everyone was high on everything to start the season, but obviously they've fallen off pretty hard.
Um, but I think Chelsea at minus I see them bought.
It's minus 1 25.
that's a short favorite and a good anchor.
If you're looking for some parlay action, Um, I'm in agreeance with both them.
I think Chelsea should roll here.
They played midweek, but they got good squad rotation.
So look for ah, full 11 for them.
So we're gonna skip to Syria, talk other than and jump into Serie B because Balotelli got signed by, uh, by a club.
They're happy for him to get back into the action.
Let's see if he can gain some traction there.
But we're gonna talk about La Liga.
We got a nice matchup this weekend, Joey B's rocking Sylvia Jersey.
So we're going to give a quick table recap and then jump into the mature Darby.
So, Joey B, what's the table looking like? Yeah, so pretty funky season, I think so far, especially because some teams have played 10 games.
Someone played 11. Someone played 12.
Um, and we got I just I'll start at the top of the table.
Atletico Madrid kind of scene there already not running away with it, but have, ah, strong stranglehold up there they are ahead of So she had by a point Athletico of 26 So should have 25.
But athletic goes got two games in hand to most of the teams up there.
Um, they've been pretty, like in really good form.
I mentioned this on the show on Monday.
Um, they've allowed two goals over there.
10 games so far, which is pretty insane.
Thinking 900 minutes of soccer and only allowing two roles.
Um, but yeah, I think something I just looked up before on who scored is their top rated player was carrying trippy a played every minute in the while.
We get so far for them, it is their highest rated player, just ahead of Jack Felix and Marcos Laurant.
But, I mean, I think Suarez has done a great ad.
They haven't missed Thomas party.
He left for for ****nal.
Um, but their offense.
They have stuck with the someone, a ball, just playing defense.
But you in a Caracas Out and correra have been really good offensive players for them.
So I think just there sitting at the top, I looked there plus 100 toe take home the title at the end of the year, so not a great value on them.
But that just kind of shows how, like much of, ah, lead they have built up so far.
Um, yeah, I think like I said, such a dad second place team, they do have two games ahead of some of the other teams behind them.
But I was actually watching.
They were played in Europe for today, and from for most of the games today, they were going to lose to Napoli and not advance in Europa.
And I thought they kind of the same way.
Rex is satisfied that enter eyes, not advancing in any competition.
Such that may have been a little satisfied advancing or kind of getting knocked out in the group stage.
Kind of focus on their positioning.
They have such a good start.
Um, but they did advance.
So it'll be interesting to see and track how they did.
Um, how they will do coming up.
Kind of competing in both competitions.
Um, but I do think the signing of, um, Donald civil from Man City has been a really good edition.
They just have a bunch, a bunch of Attackers.
Really deep team.
They feel there's Attackers.
Um, can kind of keep playing.
Um, I know Madrid, I believe, sits in third.
They sent forth Villarreal's and third Madrid's and forth little touch on Madrid in the next section.
Um, I think then I'll move on to that.
We've got to shocks of the season one Barcelona sitting 1/10 are sitting in ninth.
Um, I don't know.
I don't have any good things to say about Barcelona.
Don't know whether they, uh can move up Aziz much.
I imagine I'll finish in a Champions League spot or else, and maybe a failure.
Uh, but besides that, they do have the advantage.
They've also only played 10 games.
Um, and something I thought was even worse value than Athletico Madrid when the title was Barcelona's plus 400.
They're sitting in ninth in their 12 points back of Political Madrid.
So a lot of ways ago, a really bad price to think for a team to win the title on the next last surprise.
Cody's pretty crazy.
They're sitting in fifth.
They got five wins, three draws, four losses.
Um, they're a bunch of players have never heard of before.
To be honest, most of them are over the age of 25.
So it's not like they're full of young, youthful, uh, players that have, like a bright future, just glancing with roster.
Most of their starters.
Um, but they have beaten Barcelona and Real Madrid in the 1st 12 games.
Both were, like, kind of plus 1000.
Um, money like underdogs, I believe.
Kind of around there. So pretty impressive for them.
They've been pretty consistent.
Obviously earned a lot of draws.
They did lose Osasuna.
Who's in the relegation zone right now? Um, and I'll just give you the three relegation.
Seems are Huesca.
Um they just got promoted.
So no surprise there.
Valladolid e think survived relegation by a little bit last year.
So not a ton of surprise.
And then, like I just mentioned those SUNA, um is down there in the middle of the table.
We got Granada Seville, uh, in a couple other Real Betis, some of those guys around.
So, yeah, we got a big game.
Madrid Derby, Athletico Madrid, Real Madrid.
Um, Madrid sits in fourth.
They played 11 games compared the Athletico Madrid's 10, But they're six points back.
So huge game in terms of points for the standings.
Lets you guys look at the odds or see anything that you found enticing the scheme.
Yeah, with Madrid, they sit at plus two of seven on the road or Athletico Madrid look to seven on the road rials, plus 1 40.
You could get the pick there.
The thing that caught my eye the most is, um, well, first of all, just historically when you're looking back at the head to head matchups, it's very rare that you see more than three goals, if not in any of these matchups, when they get into the friendlies in the Champions League, you see the total run up.
But when it's in league play, it stays relatively low.
Since 2015, when Real Madrid's, the home side hasn't gone over 2.
5 goals, so that that's one angle you can look at.
But then when you go and try to check the price that that minus 1 40 both of these guys have studs up top.
So that's where do you really want to be playing a minus 1 48 on on their 2.
5? Uh, no, thank you for May.
So that's where if you want to think about the over at 2.
5 a plus 1 10, but then you think again, it's La Liga.
This does tend to go on there, especially when they have them juice.
So if you've got toe pointed here, I think you got to take the Real Madrid Moneyline.
There's not much value on either side here.
When you look at implied probability, you could get a little bit either way, if you talk your way one way or the other, But no play for me here.
Just gonna be a solid LA Liga match up.
Personally, I'm on the other side of Rex.
Uh, he likes Real Madrid, but I wouldn't talk you off Athletico Madrid at either Pickem or plus money line.
I just think Madrid have not been that good this season.
They're probably off of a high of advancing in the Champions League.
Um, I think Athletico Madrid could catch them sleeping in this Darby.
Yeah, I don't have a strong opinion.
I think I agree.
Both both sides look attractive.
Maybe look for both this team both teams to score angle, But even that you're asking for a while for sometimes with these La Liga teams.
Um, real Madrid team, they've been fairly inconsistent.
So like to start in La Liga, but kind of have found their stride recently.
Um, they always seem to turn up for big games and get points when they need, Um, it is.
I mean, they just were.
They still never played in Europa, so they just a team of prestige team of history, Um, a man if if Madrid get all three points here, I think the title made the kind of out of reach, but it's gonna be even more set in stone or starting to get kind of nailed in there.
But, um, it's just crazy to me how good athletic goes been in LA Liga so far.
All right, Now, that was your LA Liga talk.
We're gonna hit on the MLS real quick.
We got the finals.
I believe that Saturday night it's gonna be in Columbus.
They're hosting Seattle.
They've made the finals, I think, for the past five years, 13 of the five had a crazy comeback against Minnesota.
Riel rough for anyone who had a Minnesota ticket because it going on there in the road.
That was a nice Moneyline price you got there.
I think that was in the plus three hundreds.
But Seattle, they just went in the playoffs.
It's what they dio I think MLS couldn't be any happier because MLS's team is like Columbus.
They saved them and all that good stuff playing against the team that always gets there in Seattle.
It's a dream for everyone, except for the fans of the MLS who don't live in Columbus in Seattle because no one really likes these teams.
That's where I got no interest in it.
I believe you could get plus 1 50 plus 1 80 right out there.
Um, you're going to go with the team that's been there four of the five past years.
I think they're the underdogs here, plus 1 80.
So I mean, you couldn't talk me off that just that I believe Columbus should have fans there.
I don't think that's gonna affect it much.
If you gotta forced me to play, I'm gonna back the team with the pedigree.
Yeah, I'm in the same boat.
If you look at Columbus is home record, I think they haven't lost in like the last eight matches.
Eso they are pretty strong home team.
However, if I had to pick a side, I would be rolling with Seattle. Sanders.
Read is becoming one of my favorite players watching him.
Yeah, I just think I agree.
I think even taking Seattle toe lift the trophy of minus one of five.
Not a Not a bad look, um, or even take plus 2 15 for the draw and then maybe Sprinkle a little bit on one of the teams to win in a penalty shootout.
Um, if that goes that, I think that's typical.
Um, but yeah, just for fun.
Root for the PKK's intense.
And then you don't need toe worry about the winner, but yeah, not too much.
I did watch the Seattle Minnesota game, and I think at one point Seattle's money line was like plus 4000.
So who does to anyone who got in on that? Yes, sir.
Send us those tickets.
So time for everyone's favorite part.
We're always here every weekend.
You can always catch us wagering on the soccer action.
If you've got any best bets, hit us up with them.
Or if you have any place you want insights on, we could give you it off the riff.
If we haven't previewed it yet to see where we're thinking I wasn't here for the Champions League show.
J and Joey will recap that the last domestic weekend I was here, I went three and oh, for plus 3.
71 units, putting it at 61 wins.
Lost his five pushes for 21 plus units.
So happy with that? Yeah, A very good job.
Luckily, you missed the Champions League slate because, um, it was kind of a rough one for me personally.
Went, Oh, and one, I had Chelsea crossing door over three.
Um, it was 11 at halftime, so very surprised we couldn't get the push.
Um, I lean on that match was both teams to score.
However, second guess myself went for over three.
So this week, I'm firing on.
My guts will be ready for that.
Yeah, I felt bad once I saw that 11 scoreline in half.
I knew how this was gonna how the game was gonna end.
Um, for me at one play, man, you in Leipzig.
Both teams to score in over 2.5.
Just took a man.
You goal at the end of hit.
So, um, kind of sweaty, but pretty certain menu is at least going to get one at the end.
So, um yeah, Looking forward to this weekend.
Alright, So I got three plays for you.
A J s got to and Joey be what you got to.
I got to in a whole lot of opinions, alright? Love your opinions.
Maybe we can hold it for, um the 23rd so we can have the airing of the grievances.
Maybe we'll have to do a special episode that day where we just strictly talk about Shockey West Brum A J.
You have to find a new team because we're not airing any grievances about Chelsea.
They proved me wrong, so I'll eat my words.
Alright, So jump into the first play here.
I got to in the Premier League, so we'll stick their, Um we're gonna go about a game that we were a touched on a little bit united her city.
I'm back on my bull****.
After taking the Champions League and last domestic weekend off, I'm back to betting on a united match That's just fits the over angle here with the away favorite, um united.
They have to show some fight here.
Their defense hasn't proven to me that they're going to keep a clean sheet.
So that's where I think United definitely.
Hopefully, they can get one there.
And I think there is a winner here.
I don't see a 11 draw, so I'm taking the over 110.
275 here at minus 1 20 the last time in, like the past six or seven games.
The only game that went under and United for the Premier League was that West Bram game.
So goals have been flowing for them so far.
Yeah, definitely a solid pick.
Both defense's or suspect.
Um, a lot of motivation on the United Side and Cities.
Attack is always pretty crisp and clean.
Um, I also have a play in that match.
Some might say it's a little biased, but I am taking United plus 0.
I hate buddy on my own team, but here we go.
Um, I mean, United backs against the wall, playing at home, which they haven't been as good as home form Azaz, I would like, but there are gonna be some fans this time around, so I think they'll make a difference.
Um, and yeah, after this crap midweek, I don't know how I could go out there and just get crushed by city.
So I looked for the United to pick up some type of points here.
Yeah, I think e don't know.
I think terms of Assad I lean towards city, but I don't see a lot of value there, so h m maybe, uh, hitting on the right side.
But for the over my initial thought on this game was both seems to scorn over to to to an apple.
So that would come in with Rex is over 2.
75 so, yeah, I think we'll see goals here.
I think both teams should score.
Cities tends to struggle with a team you can counterattack with a bunch of fast Attackers.
So, um, they may They may give up a goal here, there, but I like I said, it grows back to Brian.
Didn't play this week, so cities offense may be clicking.
Um, but for my first that gone thio Italy.
Um, just taking the Ottawa onto money line. They're playing Fiorentina.
Um, they're at home.
I know that this came off a pretty big game against Iraq's this past mid week in the Champions League.
Um, I think it minus 1 37.
This press should be if, based on implied probability, should be minus 1 50 minus 1 60.
So get a little bit of value there.
I do think that that line would close closer to that number by the time.
So um, yeah, I just think e mean Fiorentina have been off to a pretty bad start so far.
Um, they're even worse playing away from home.
Um, like I said, avalanches in a pretty big letdown spot.
But I think they're pretty pretty satisfied and happy with the result.
Um, also, I think with the Champions League being over, um, I think it will kind of turn their focus towards Syria, where they've been fairly inconsistent recently.
So hopefully they can kind of get their minds right in.
Uh, we don't see as big of a letdown spot here for these guys, but yeah, I think it might have 1 37 little juicy for the money line.
But I think I don't want to get it done against Fiorentina team who has just struggled to score and struggled to get results.
If you're a team has been a bottom of the table T c, bottom of the table team and the season where they're expecting to be competing for hopefully a Europa spot.
Definitely not the way it's going so far for Fiorentina.
Yeah, The tired legs is the only party you might have to worry about.
But on Toronto, they don't sit too well on the table right now or they're not where they want to be.
37 is a little juicy.
But if it wins, who cares? You paid a little bit of some more money and you got that one unit Still so it doesn't matter? Uh huh.
A J No thoughts on your beloved Syria there.
Um, I'm just gonna agree.
Is gonna get a w this weekend.
So next play here, Joey b.
I know you probably enjoyed this one a lot, so no, no, I wouldn't say it's going back to the well.
It's kind of just who line Breakers FC is or who I've just become.
Where there's two teams every weekend, it's circled Anytime they play a match, It's almost circled.
Who they're playing is their value.
On the other team, Hayden was bro.
So gotta back Newcastle here.
Newcastle is home, though, so West Brom's got to travel all the way up.
Newcastle does have a solid home field.
No, I won't called advantage, but they always tend to perform very well at home.
So Castle A plus 1 31.
It's strictly I don't need.
We've talked about it.
Why West Brom's not a good club.
We don't need to say it anymore.
Just, uh, just it's almost the auto of.
If I can get it at a good price, the books say Implied Probability says it should be shorter.
It's almost on auto play here.
So Newcastle money lineup plus 1 31.
Yeah, I think Rex had it spot on.
Newcastle's a tough place to play West Rome or a crap team, so you got to go with the value on that one.
Yeah, there could be guys out for Newcastle, but it doesn't matter.
It's West Broom.
Yeah, I think my initial I knew this game was almost canceled or was canceled at one point and then put back on the schedule that had covert issues through.
I think both teams or maybe wasn't just Newcastle, you Newcastle.
Yeah, so, I mean, if West from was home, that's a team, I think, uh, when West Brom's home I'm not.
I would never back then at home, but maybe both towards and under or something.
But since they're away and they just lost 51 of Crystal Palace last weekend or they had a red card, but just a little, I don't know, definitely, definitely good value there.
Um, we'll be curious to see if they can rebound from that 500 ft.
That's pretty tough to bounce back from.
So and there's been one profitable angle in college football.
No, it's a completely different sport for college basketball.
Not enough data points yet.
But do you fade? The Covitz team? It's been profitable where you wait for that line to go all the way up and then you play it.
I know I'm not waiting for it all the way to potentially go up.
I'm just getting it in now, But maybe you fade, steam retire.
It's one of Jordan's favorite phrases, so here there isn't a steam movement or I can't say there is, but I'm just back in Castle because it's West Brom's.
Yeah, I think something maybe even to look for is the lineups.
If Newcastle throws out a week, wind up still better on the money line.
You'll get him in a better price, I think, like, Rep said, No matter who they throw out there, I think you'll get a good I mean, even better value on them. Winning.
Yeah, I love that quote from the next play.
I'm going back to the under.
Well, I'm going.
Aston Villa Wolves under 2.
5 since at minus 1 30.
I think wolves defensively, we'll be able to keep asking me away.
And wolves without Raul Jimenez have been struggling up top.
So I looked this to be low scoring affair.
It is the 4:30 a.m. match on the West Coast.
I plan to sleep through this match.
Yeah, no better time than playing under than one where you have a legitimate excuse to sleep through it.
Hopefully, you could wake up and cash it with Wolf Side.
Joe and I have been harping on it.
Who's going to step up? Respondents does not instill any amount of faith in me that he's gonna be a Gold Square Hota up top would be really nice right now to be stepping into filling in.
So he's obviously playing for pool for Villa.
Uh, wolves just got thrashed, but they did play Liverpool.
So this is where Villa did thrash Liverpool.
So it could it be what they want by five.
So what? Nine. Nothing.
That can't be nine nothing game.
But I was just doing the math, how they beat each other.
But Villa's attack has gone quiet after that hot start, Um, maybe it wakes back up again against the Wolves team that they got to figure it out Band together, they already have the lowest goals, forced and like, goals against in the league.
And they set a comfortable spot, their games, they're going to keep looking like that.
So we're probably going to be a bunch of 2.
25 and too soon for the wolves.
So you're getting on early, So I like it.
Yeah, I think I initially looked both teams to score, but the more I thought about it, even taking both teams to score? No.
Maybe some sort of benefit.
Um, so not not a Not a huge opinion.
I think maybe a little valuables, money line, But again, Can't back him after just a couple games or just one game without Raul.
Really? Uh, fully there s Oh, yeah.
Tough, tough game to bet, in my opinion, But I think that under the right angle, So hopefully a J will wake up with a winner.
Um, my next bet taking a little bit of, ah, uh, plus price are a big plus plus price for me.
Not compared to Rex and some of his championship 100 dogs.
But, um, taking Lester Brian both teams to score in over 2.
I looked on the bodice plus 1 25 bed online Ukiah plus 1. 40.
I just think it's it's an interesting angle.
Brandon's been much better.
Um, their offense has been much better in away games.
Um, I think they may be a, uh, hungry dogs.
I couldn't think of it for this weekend.
I think they have maybe not pulled from upset.
Maybe draw double chance here for them.
I think they uh, in Brian's last three away games, it's hit or in this has hit in three of the brands last five away games.
Um, so I think they play differently away.
They kind of have a more fluid attack.
I know they just constantly create chances.
I think it may be in over we've mentioned or talked about before with this Brian team.
So I think this create chances.
Um, the only thing that scares me is lesser.
Seems to play a little bit like more.
Guess Cage here at home.
Um, but after they lost the fallen last week, they may kind of come out and try to prove a point.
So all I need is I do think, um, I say the value might be on Brandon.
I could see Western getting a win here.
Um, both seem to stores minus 1 45.
I think that may be a safer bet, but taking this plus 1 40 pretty good price s so I think just I think we see a +21 or two to final toe.
The either team win or we see a +22 draw, I think.
Is my my thoughts here? Yeah, but this game after sweating that list there over last weekend.
Team total over 1.5.
Not that I want to get back involved with it, but didn't have strong enough feelings.
Uh, they definitely have more chances to finish in that one, but they're actually only finish that, like one point for the last match.
They were on the road, so maybe back at home they put on their scoring boots and get you it over here.
But I know Brian has been a much better club than they then probably most of the pundits expected.
So just don't get a K G low scoring match.
But Leister just it at nice at top of the table.
They wanna get more points.
Increase that goal differential because Tottenham has a I think they have a 14 gold differential right now, and it's very substantial against other clubs and I do think old differential might come down in the Premier League or Syria this season to terminate.
Alright, final play A J sticking with like your wolves mantra, but the Italian version of it and we're gonna be back in Roma here on the money line at +104 Having gotten results in their past two games but doesn't scare me off it.
This Roma club was clicking before it went through A little bit of the rough patch here.
I think this is where they figure it out, coming up against Bologna.
So that's where e don't know.
They've rested all their deuces mid week.
They don't know today they arrested everybody today.
If you look at that line up, they had maybe two starters in there.
They know they need to get back on track.
In Syria, playing bologna sets more closer to the bottom of the table.
And you're giving me a even money line right up Plus one of four.
Pedro will be the only guy in there in the midfield will be out because you gotta read.
Not too concerning for May.
So this is where Roman Moneyline plus one of four Let's seize Echo.
No one substantial out other than Pedro for them, Lorenzi could be out.
I'm hoping he gets in there, so that's my only concern.
But one guy isn't gonna push.
Our Lorenzi isn't someone who's gonna push the line more than five cents so plus one of four like it here.
Yeah, a definite get right spot.
They lost the 31 today to like SK Sofia.
Bulgarian side. I believe so.
Definitely could get right spot with all their starters returning.
It's everyone's favorite Bulgarian team.
Yeah, Didn't you already locked up anyway? So that match meant absolutely nothing correct meant nothing.
Thio Yeah, like even Sophia is the worst in the group s O.
Um, yeah, I think you get arrested.
Team kind of turned their interest towards Syria.
Kind of like I, uh, backed Atalanta a little bit here.
So will be a good a good bet for sure.
Yep. Quick hit with the leans, Joey B.
So I, uh, the first thing I almost took was a Spezia drawn a bet They play.
I don't remember who they play.
Um, they played Yeah, Yeah, they put.
And I think, you know, just to fade especially has been a much stronger side.
Um, I think, but our attorneys home, I faded cartoon it enough this year that they've hit me in the butt kind of to start the season, so I don't know if I just think the price drawn about it, even money.
Price seems right, but I just think it's the right side in this match.
I don't know if I have the the, uh, riskiness to take the money line here.
Yeah, definitely in the right side.
But when I was when I was looking at this match, I love looking at the bottom table when the Syria teams play each other.
Thought about the over here.
But the value does say to be on Crotone.
So that's just where it's kind of evenly matched.
But it does say Crotone should be about like, 10 to 20 cents more in their favor.
Yes, second one, um, Cologne in minds taken over 2.
75 I think getting that 2.
75 in Germany is always a key number of sorts, I guess.
Um, the only thing that scares me away colognes the away team and they have averaged two goals over there.
Four away games.
Um, minds is eight and two to the over 2.
5, but five or no in away games.
But they're the home team here, so it makes them three and to over 2.
I don't know if you guys look at those home and away trends.
E think it does tell you a little bit of at least how, like I think Cologne does set up a little bit differently when they play away.
Um, and I know clones a great over team there, another team when they're at home, good over team the backs.
I think they have that, like, more attacking mentality, and it leaves them exposed to the back.
Where's, um when there are away, they kind of set up a little more cautiously.
I don't know if you guys take that into account, but I think, um, over 2.
75 pretty good bet here just specializes German and goals kind of tend to happen here.
Yeah, you're good angle here is both of the squad.
They're in the bottom, six of expected goals allowed.
So you like to see that they're ex G forces where it just gets a little bit more concerning.
But you gotta hope and teams are struggling and they're playing teams that air conceding at a rate because both clubs only scored 12 goals so far through 10.
So they're averaging 1.
2 goals per game.
So that's where you might get the 11 You just gotta hope they find the right side when they play the bad.
Other teams defensively.
And then, um, last one game German game tomorrow.
Maybe it's a game.
I tweet out, but I think both again if you watched any of them.
You know Frankfurt, both teams scoring over 2.
5 A bit of taking a couple of times so far this year.
And this is also just looking at the stats again.
Kind of close to no auto play in Frankfurt games.
Um, because it is pretty hard to shut them out.
And, um, Wolfsburg offense has been clicking, especially at home.
So both teams scoring over 2.5.
I think Wolfsburg may get the win, but Frankfurt may find the back of the net, so it's maybe a play.
I tweet out something I almost gave out on here.
So take that with a grain of salt, maybe Look forward on Twitter tomorrow.
They always got your eye for the big uglies when they're playing because they're over is do like to hit. But with Wolfsburg.
They do sit 5th, 5th in the table.
Right now, they've only allowed 10 goals this season, which has them tied for second best where, UH Byron Lever accusing and Leipzig both only allowed nine, so their defense is trending.
Well, they're extra is 13, so you could say they're slightly over performing.
But I would say it's kind of on par little over the top.
So that's where Um, Wolfsburg's defense has been pretty strong so far.
But going up against a good offense with Frankfurt, the only thing I saw Frankfurt I don't know if they got drubbed by one of the top clubs, but they have 15 goals forced and 17 goals against, so their club that usually does tend to stay around that mark.
But I was I didn't get time to dig into it to see if it's one game that over does that because now one big thing, what I look at, what the expected goals is, it does take seven matches for it to become predictive.
Depends how you use it is how it is predicted.
So that's where you do look it right there since we stolen 10 11, 12 matches.
And don't do look if there's one large outlier in that sample size.
Yeah, they lost five or nothing to buy away.
So that that definitely excuse their away numbers.
And I think without the Bayern game I think they're giving up like 2.
4 goals per away game.
But without the buyer game, they're still giving up like 1.
8 goals per game.
So that's why I think Wolfsburg, maybe a Wolf Wolfsburg team.
Total sense of the home team.
But I think Frankfurt really hard team to shut out.
Both seem to score maybe and throw that into ah parlay of some sorts.
I know it's probably minus 200 or around there, so I think Wolfsburg or sorry, Frankfurt Stuttgart in, uh, maybe that like I know those teams have been constantly look at both teams to score, but they love attacking.
But their defense, uh, not total totally there the whole time.
I look for him both those teams each week.
All right, let's wrap up our best bets real quick.
So I got three plays for you this weekend.
United City over 2.
75 at minus 1 20 Castle Moneyline plus 1 31 Fade West Brown.
Retire Rumor Money line +10 four.
Perfect I have to place for you guys.
I have United plus 40.
5 since that, plus 1 10 and Villa Wolves under 2.
56 a minus 1 30.
I do expect that to get to a 2.
25 So if you're looking to play it, get it in early.
Yeah, and I don't want to.
Moneyline minus 1 30 against Fiorentina on then lesser Brian, both teams scoring over 2.
5 goals plus 1 40.
Esos to place for me may tweet out another one.
And since I did a little bit of research in La Liga this week, I'll maybe look to get back into someplace and maybe tweet out some this week.
But be ready because the mid weekends off the the whole weekend to dive into some of those lines.
Yep, so we'll let it be a surprise if you'll see our faces on Monday because we do have domestic league matches next weekend, so make sure you check us out on Twitter, follow us there to see if we will be going there and check out our website at the breakdown sports dot com.
You can follow us on Twitter at b r k d w n underscore Sports tweet us about anything gambling related sports related fantasy content.
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You can see him retweeted on our Twitter.
You can follow me at our East underscore Easy with a Z uh, college basketball seasons here can't neglect soccer, but I can say it's had a little bit more of my attention, but always watching footy because it starts nice and early in the morning just where I like it.
Yeah, you can follow me on Twitter at a underscore v a d u k u l don't get it twisted guys, I still hate Chelsea.
Even though they are great this season, you can Follow me on a score. Joey B 23.
Maybe I'll throw it some west from hate once the new Newcastle.
So we'll see you guys.
At some point next weekend, May will double up again, but have a good one.