it looks like we are live.
And welcome to the full press coverage fantasy kick off this week 11.
My name is Kyle Center.
Happy ones here.
Happy We're here.
Uh, lot of there's a dude.
There will be a lot of interesting decisions today for sure.
Far too many to kind of really right out.
Focus on it Is the fantasy season deep in the fantasy season every year, you know, let's start, sit decisions get more important And the yeah, checking players who are active and active also, uh, very important as well eso we're gonna get toe all those things.
A few starts it decisions that I'm really struggling with today.
Kind of walk through how I'm trying to figure it out.
Hopefully, it helps people, of course.
Uh, anyone listening? If you have any questions, feel free to ask.
I've already had a couple of questions sent in, so we'll get to some of those.
Um, so Yeah, actually, I might as well start there, I suppose, with viewer listener questions.
Someone who It is someone who's watched before.
So maybe I'll wait till I see if they come onto SportsCastr before, uh, getting to that in big detail.
I know for myself.
So you know the big question for I think a lot of fantasy people is what's gonna happen with Saints offense.
We know Drew Brees is out.
At least there's some clarity and cer*****y there.
But what we're not sure with is what's the quarterback situation gonna be like? We assume that I guess we don't know.
Thean initial assumption anyway, was Jameis Winston was gonna be the The quarterback is going to get most of staff is gonna play the quarterback role in Taysom Hill would continue his role that he has been.
You know, uh, there's gonna be snaps here and there, but, uh, you know, for the most part, it's it's the other signal caller that is there the other quarterback, that is the true signal caller that is gonna be one running the offense.
So I think the assumption on full press fancy pod we all talked about we we assumed it was gonna be Jamis. Winston.
There's some talk that you know, taste of hills, getting the start or they're unsure.
It very well could be a mix of both.
So it does make it tricky and interesting.
I know, uh, deciding between Alex Smith and Jameis Winston.
That's one thing I'm having to decide right now, knowing that Alex Smith gets a pretty decent matchup against the Bengals, we know he's going to be the quarterback all the way through.
Unless he gets hurt.
We really hope he doesn't get hurt.
Hope nobody gets hurt, but he's one, especially.
Where is Winston? No way, no his propensity to make poor decisions and throw interceptions.
You got to think, if they're already not, if there is a sense that they're already on the fence of him not being the full fledged starter yet, if he throws a pick, you gotta think he's done and they're just gonna roll with with Hill on.
Even if that limits their offense a little bit of that, they'd rather not turn it over.
Certainly, against the division opponent has won a few games in a row.
Even if they don't, you know, don't look like to be a playoff team in the record isn't the greatest, but, you know, on a roll.
So you got to think that they're not, you know, the Saints aren't gonna take chances.
But if Winston's producing better than Hill, you gotta think that they're also gonna think, well, he gives you the best chance to win and get in there.
So it's risk reward because you're great.
Matchup against the Falcons.
Although I was looking at football outsiders D v o A.
And they actually have it.
Is the Bengals being slightly worse defense than the Falcons? Both They're allowing above average production again in the DVD defense.
Adjusted value over averages, the D v o a metric.
But the Bengals are higher up so actually higher than the Jets.
So my my thinking is with Smith in the good matchup, I know that it could very well be one where they, you know, just run for a lot of touchdowns and he gets none.
And he thought he could throw for a lot of yards.
Um, I do get the sense, though.
I mean, he's got Terry McLaurin.
I don't know that the Bengals really have ah great weapon there.
I like him in fantasy. Even in DFS.
Decent price on different sites.
Draftkings, Yahoo specifically.
Yeah, he's got a really good price.
I expect him to do well, so I do.
You know, seeing Alex Smith last weekend, I think, was the 390 yards passing without going to touch down.
I don't know that necessarily is gonna happen against the Bengals.
I think if he throws that many yards, someone's bound to score through the air.
I'm going with Smith for the security of knowing that he again, he's not gonna get benched.
I'm not gonna get pulled because of play.
And if he does, do you know? And it sets up is a really good match up.
I think you know, the overall Vegas game script does favor the state's Falcons game is a higher score game than Washington Cincinnati, but actually the over under is only a difference of two.
I mean, the difference between Smith and Winston is that it really there isn't.
There isn't much of a difference.
Actually, Um, have your favorites.
I think that's all it is.
The Saints or have your favorites than more so than Washington is, but not a huge difference.
So I'm going with Alex Smith just to kind of answer that quickly there, Um, so this is interesting.
So Mike Poll on Twitter at Paul Mike Uh, P O H L M I k.
I think I don't know this film like, but, um Crowder Myers Godwin arch arc in PPR Needing to, um, initially, my my thinking with Crowder is he's getting so many targets that he has to be started every week.
I think, uh, I'm not the biggest fan I know.
I wasn't even even if the lower draft price I wasn't crazy about getting him.
But truthfully, though he's been producing, it's it's been healthwise getting on the field.
Uh, you know, Joe Flacco seems tohave.
Ah, good rhythm going to.
I like Crowder impairment to a certain extent with Flacco.
So I think Crowder is for sure, one of them.
I'm really tempted to go with Myers for the same reason.
Uh, he's been getting a lot of targets lately, and this is a vulnerable text in secondary and played a little better of late.
But it's still a T where I think they'll be able to beat them through the air a bit more.
Maybe Cam Newton runs in a run heavy fashion, but Myers has seems to be his favorite target seems to be the one he's connecting with the most.
So, uh, you know, I don't know if Mike was placed them in that order, particularly because the way the question is asked Crowder, Myers, Godwin, Shark, I think I'd almost order them that way.
I think I'd probably prefer Charco over Godwin.
Rams Defense is pretty difficult.
Um, don't expect a ton of points from that game.
Actually, Don't know how much, uh, total fantasy upside is not a game I'm not necessarily gonna want to get into.
Whereas I think with the Jets is you know, we expect the charges to be up so it will force the Jets.
If they wanna win a game to pass, they're going to need Thio win through the air.
Uh, throw enough attempts that Crowder should get enough targets.
And then again, I think the Patriots and Texans game that could be That could be a good shooter.
It's indoors, too.
You know, conditions for aerial attacks.
Not too much wind, no wind.
Didn't really indoors.
Doesn't seem like there's ah, whole lot of crazy winds like we saw last week, and it really any games.
So it's not as important to be inside this week, is it? Maybe was last week or a couple weeks ago, but I still think I go after those conditions.
Uh, and then, yeah, Godwin chart.
Ah, you know, I think the Steelers have been vulnerable toe wide receivers.
Wide receivers have been producing against them, but you still, I think, you know there's a certain talent base for the whole t like it's one of those things where if Jacksonville can't get anything going, no one's gonna produce, no matter how talented receivers are.
Uh, I think two is to look at the over under on all these games, So Steelers, Steelers Jags 46 a half Jets Chargers 47 a half, uh, Patriots Texans 49 48 for Rams box.
So they're all in that same range.
Uh, Texans, Patriots the highest, though Kind of I'm saying, like I think neither defense has been that great.
Another TV away really doesn't favor the Patriots at all.
They're one of the, I think the worst, actually an overall Devi away, according to football outsiders.
So interesting to see that the patriots there so I think the conditions, you know, the game situations of the Patriots and the Jets needing Thio throw the football lot, especially for the Patriots having a lot of success there.
I'm gonna go with Crowder and Jacoby Meyers for that.
So, again, this is, you know, and and benching Chris Godwin and, uh, and D J H Arc.
What, uh, s a couple more questions that were asked both from Chris Blacky, Who does part of part of full press coverage? Uh, he does the the big bad, the big bad Bruins podcast for us.
Also part of Boston Sports splits.
You can follow Chris on Twitter at Chris Underscore Blacky at Boston Sports Splits and at big bad Bruins pod for for those, uh, his podcasts.
So anyway, he I know he's in our full press radio league with myself.
I believe he kicked my butt a couple weeks ago.
So, uh, kudos to Chris for that.
Um, so two questions.
PPR assuming the same league got Kalen Delage or name Heinz and then John New Smith and Dallas Goddard.
I have the lodge, and Smith hired my ranking, so, you know, gravitate towards them.
Um tough on both instances.
I think, you know, obviously, if Naim Heinz gets the majority that carries like he did last week, it gets to page Packer's defense that, you know, does allow a lot of production of running backs.
Whether it's on the ground or through the air, he's probably gonna score quite a lot.
But again, you like the game script with the lodge and that there's more cer*****y that, But knowing that the lodge is probably gonna get most of the running back touches, seems like Joshua Kelly is being more and more phased out.
And, you know, with Austin, we're not back to Austin Jackson gone.
It seems like, you know, again.
And if the charges are up by a lot, it's believed that the second heaviest favorites this week, even though there are to win team, which really me.
Well, I wonder there.
But if that game script does hold true, Balad should see ah, lot of work and, yeah, the matchup run defense matchup wise, It's not as good as with Heinz, but a lot has also been involved in the passing game, too, and I think that the cer*****y of the role I would lean but lodge because I do believe Jonathan Taylor will have a good bounce back game.
The Packers have been notoriously susceptible to short yardage.
It's, uh, you know, runners goal line.
They've had games where they've really stopped the run really well, but they still can't stop a one yard run.
Eso and I know what Jonathan Taylor didn't get much work last week, but most of his work that he got did come in the red zone.
You gotta carry inside the five.
Although I think everyone on the Colts last week got to carry inside the five Jacoby were sat e believe it's his first touch of the year.
Gotta carry inside the five.
So, uh, which includes Heinz, right? So he you know, I would say I would say the higher upside is with Heinz and the better the safer floors with collage and from a running back perspective, I usually go with the safety there on Ben, you know, tight ends wise, I would say he's got John Smith and Dallas Goddard again.
I have John Smith ranked higher on, you know, uh, just, you know, messaging Chris and and he did kind of seemed hesitant on my recommendation of of Smith over Goddard.
Just because, you know, with all these receivers coming back now, what's God? It's target share.
Gonna look like that's really difficult. Thio.
No, um, I think with John you Smith, it's truthfully, you know, again, we were there. They're the underdogs.
So expecting Baltimore to be up? If that's the case, they're gonna have to throw enough.
And it seems like Smiths at least been the number three target for them.
Uh, tough matchups all around, though.
It's so it's not as if a J.
Brown or Corey Davis have good wide receiver matchups and the Browns have been susceptible to tight ends.
Um, so, to be honest, what probably makes the most sense is to pair ah, floor, play it running back with blah in Malaj with the ceiling play in Goddard.
Um, yeah, I guess that that combination makes sense if it's the same league that way, you know, you're the tight end position is the one where you probably gonna chase upside more than safety.
Anyway, it's not really a safe position between Smith and got it.
You probably look upside more than anything, so yeah, I think, actually, that's a Z Muchas.
My initial reaction was to go Balash Smith.
I think talking through it, realizing that, you know, opted to optimize the line if you want a good balance of floor and ceiling and again blogged being the safer floor.
Probably better to go with the higher stealing a tight end, which is again, looks like it's tight ends facing Cleveland rather than a tight end facing Baltimore.
So chase the matchup with Goddard.
Just overall player.
I'd prefer to start Smith over.
Got it almost every week.
I believe in one thing.
I didn't last week and came to regret that maybe that clouding that decision.
But, um, so many melted feeds in Philly and I could see something is going wrong.
Uh, so it just wanting toe answer things s Oh, yes.
So do you keep the questions coming into anyone who who does have any starts of questions? You're happy Thio go through them.
Uh, the other thing, too, is I know, uh, one of my hardest decision it's also involves Kalumba Lodge s o.
You know, I feel like that's gonna be something a lot of people are trying to deal with figuring out his workload.
How exactly is, you know, he set up Thio succeed with a Chargers team, you know? Is he going to be the guy? By all accounts, it does appear so over the last two weeks.
It seems like he's really gained that role.
I know the snap counts really gone up in his favor and getting targets out of the backfield.
And it's only been with the team really two weeks and he's already ascended, So it seems like they're probably not gonna go away with it unless he's really not performing, which could always be a risk.
Um, so yeah, so I guess, yeah, I'll get to that decision.
So I looked through it.
So it's a just a point per reception league.
Kalumba Lodge, Todd Gurley, Ronald Jones Find a final flex spot really wanna put a running back in there again for those guaranteed touches.
So one thing I again went through my process of which I talk about a lot of weeks and you know one thing, things to look at player, you know, uh, floor and ceiling production through the year.
Look at offensive line.
Look at the matchup and also the game and the game script, and how the matchup fits into that.
Look at Red Zone work, right Weekly Red Zone Report for full press, uh, coverage.
So again, more detailed Red Zone talk in there, all the players getting the most opportunities and whether it's carries targets, special attention paid toe carries inside.
The five especially really, like knowing who gets the carries really close to goal line.
You look at projections, look at some stats.
You know, it was a few Peter Howard stats that I really like Thio to look at for every player expected.
Points a game, which is again depending on on scoring settings, of course.
But then there's also two stats that Erica, just independent of fantasy football, really, It's really looking at the players in relation to their own teams, average yards per team attempt and yards per team attempts per game.
Usually they end up being pretty close, but it's so it may be double counting a little bit, having both of them, but just knowing that that context as well, um, so yeah, so I'll walk through how I made the decision here again, this is looking at Caleb Lodge, Todd Gurley and Ronald Jones.
So you have a lodge, gets the Jets at home, Todd Gurley in New Orleans and Ronald Jones, uh, at home against the Rams.
So in terms of what these players have produced, so you look at floor and this even right off the bat.
This is a tricky concept of floor, because callable Lodges worst game this year that he played in was 3.
1 points was with the Jets with the Chargers, though he's put up 15 16 points at Write it down.
I should have done that, but remember, it's double digits in both.
So if actually this is, ah, full press radio leagues, we usually go check their I don't believe in Plain Black is what you think a plate of a couple weeks ago.
So they didn't help No, too much to beat me, although I don't think, uh, I think he's got He's got a really good team in that league, so he doesn't need my help.
Um, it is nice toe, get questions and so appreciate it, but I'll stop the tangent.
So with Blodget's tricky okay, do you consider his his floor with the Jets or just his floor with the Chargers.
I'm more inclined to say, Just look at okay, What has he done just with the Chargers, which obviously gives him the floor? Because, like, you know, Todd Gurley and Jones of both produced single digit games, so it gives blockage the higher floor.
But Girly and Jones have the higher ceiling, Uh, because Bella's got best game, 16.
4 points where his Todd Gurley, 25 points and Ronald Jones believes his last week.
So while the lodge has done well, he hasn't got up to that ultimate ceiling of with it in the 20 point range.
Maybe it's the week against the Jets.
Who knows? Offensive line eso again we're looking at because they're all three are running backs looking just at adjusted line yards.
Um, Buccaneers Air ranked 11th.
So Jones has the highest Chargers 18th, and then the Falcons 20th, so again favoring Jones.
They're not by much by enough, though, but, you know, it seems like they have the best offensive line matchups, though that's absurd.
So we're not not really e think the matchup does actually favor one player.
So how much of the Joneses favoring the offensive line? Will that be nullified in this matchup? Because the Rams, between the Rams, the Saints and the Jets, they have the worst Devi away for opposing offenses minus 22.
Uh, that puts them.
I believe there were number one or number two right up there, then Steelers, Um, so, you know, incredibly difficult matchup.
Actually, I might have.
Sorry. That's the Buccaneers.
We are looking for the Buccaneers.
I might have put that wrong.
So let me go check that real quick.
Although I do believe the Rams are also up there DD away.
So maybe it's not wrong.
Um, anyway, so we got the saints.
Uh, there d be ways minus 17.3.
So really tough matchup for Todd Gurley.
Remember, we're talking about the Bengals at 11.
4 falcons at seven.
5 above that averages Pretty significant, so yeah, let me just quickly check this out.
Also nice to just do this so I could review it.
Yeah, that is the Steeler.
That is the Buccaneers, which is the highest Rams or minus 7.4.
So it's tricky, but it's not as tricky.
It's not as difficult as the Saints matchup.
First, I was gonna say Yeah s Oh, yeah, my mistake there.
It doesn't really affect my decision.
Uh, so Kalumba lodged with the better matchup, though that's so that one thing is certain.
Eso better for a better matchup while Jones has the better stealing, better offensive line.
So through through just looking at the player production, the offensive line and just the D v o A s so far, I'm not liking Todd Gurley's chances.
That's and then you look at the specifically fancy points allowed to the position.
Um, Saints gave up the fewest fantasy points to running backs in this form, and this is just straight PPR.
Nothing really added settings beyond that Rams, though uh, minus 7.
But it does seem like it's really reflecting the running backs.
Fourth fewest fancy points, a lot of money back.
So, uh, Kalumba Lodge, with the high defense, better match up here the 21st fewest, which would end up being the 10th most no sorry 12th most math.
Yes, the 12 most.
So you know, on the higher end of allowing fantasy points to running back.
So favoring Caleb Lodge so far.
Now we look at the game.
Vegas totals the individual totals.
Actually, the charges are the highest again.
They were favored by nine.
Believe against the Jets, so 28 implied total Buccaneers a 26 Falcons at 22.
75 So I got a favorite Caleb Lodge a little bit there, but it's not it za low game total.
But it's the what you want in low game totals are the running back favorite.
So even though it's a 46.
5 over under its the game script that you'd want, What you don't want is definitely what Todd Gurley has, which is the lowest game total on the running back.
That's not favored 22.
75 And so that's their 49.
No, they are the highest, but their individual total is the lowest.
So it's yes, it's a high game script, but not the not.
You don't always get full advantage of that on the running back that's on the underdog.
So, technically, that game script wise.
It favors Blockage and Jones probably equally, um, slightly higher for the Rams Bucks game at 48 46 a half for the Jets Chargers.
But again, they're both favorites.
So you want that in your running back.
So Game script wise, you know, basically split that one between Bella and Jones.
But again, Girl is not the answer.
The only place that girly really shines is red zone girl.
Todd Gurley is leading the league this year in total red zone opportunities 42.
Red Zone carries zero red zone targets, but it doesn't mean agreement hasn't mattered because he's getting somebody touchdowns on the ground, 12 carries from inside.
The five is only three off the lead lead lead, and I believe that puts him in the, you know, tied for third.
There's a few players with 12 Cam Newton's got 14 and physical.
It has 15, but you know, Zeke has slowed down on his pace that he has the start of the year.
So really outside of Cam Newton, there's probably not been a better red zone goal line back then.
You know, maybe Todd Gurley is right there with Dalvin, cook and Josh Jacobs.
So, uh, he's got the edge in that regard.
Caleb lodged, though in just two games with the Chargers, has 11 red zone rushing attempts and one red zone target.
So you do like those numbers.
Well, Jones has gotten a good amount of Red Zone carry as well, so all three of them do have good red zone work.
But is one area give the edge.
Projections on these players this week seem really close.
Looked at Peter Howard's projections.
Balash is the highest 12.
17 So definitely favoring block.
But hurting Jones, this case there expected points a game.
It's kind of a remainder of the season.
Blockage lower 10.
I do wonder if that's factoring in a return for Austin Heckler or not, and how much work for that is? Todd goes a 14.
3 Ronald Jones of 14.
27 so essentially really close.
Andi I mentioned those other stats.
The average yards per team attempted the average targets per game, our average yards per team attempt per game.
Uh, Ronald Jones is the favored in both categories, which again not surprising that, you know they're they're meant to be kinda viewed. Almost.
Is one just slightly different ways of expressing the idea.
Eso usually end up being pretty close.
Unless there's a mass about Liar well, and I think the comparison between two is to determine.
Okay, what teams are running so few plays that that that's where the players getting skewed.
But if both the stats air kind of lining up pretty closely, then you know it's pretty close.
I think the one the one.
It's funny cause it you might express it almost in in different ways.
Here, Todd Gurley is really close to go.
Eso the average yards per team attempt, 1.
1 yards per team attempt for game is 1.
8 Um, now with blah judge and with, uh, with Jones slightly bigger gap between the two and it's in opposite directions.
So Balash has the better average yards per team attempt, but the lower yards per team attempts per game.
Um, whereas with Jones he is the higher yards per team attempts per game.
But the lower average yards total team attempt now, So this is interesting.
How does this express And I think with the Lodge? It's also takes into account maybe some of his games of the Jets.
So that also kind of skews it.
Um, I think it's probably because, you know, the lodge has played so fewer games that all his attempts and taken into just a couple.
So that's why that number lowers every in either case.
Jones is the favorite in both categories, so it does seem like maybe gain a bigger role of what he gains yardage wise for the rest of his team.
I mean, that makes sense with girly, too, because his production really has come from touchdowns, not so much yards.
So naturally, the stat would favor guy like Jones over girly.
So what does this all mean? So yeah, I think basically, Dodd girly Onley leads in one category and he's lasted quite a few.
So I think right off the bat, my decision was bench girly.
And then it suddenly becomes okay, go back to between Kalen Belhadj and Jones, then you then you counted up so safer floor.
Technically, it goes to the lodge.
Um the higher ceiling goes to Jones.
So just we'll take away production because it's been and also, you know, skewed because has been lodged.
Produced his ceiling yet either.
Probably not, especially in this matchup.
He could definitely produce what he's done so far.
So, uh, ignore production.
Let's look at the other categories.
Offensive line is favoring Jones, but the D V Away favors blockage.
So we could again equal that out.
The fancy points allowed to position definitely favors.
Obliged to give him one edge.
He, uh, has the edge in, uh, implied total points.
But Jones has the edge in overall game total points.
So again, both our favorite.
So the game script does favorite both running backs because both are on teams that air favorite.
That's how you kind of look at running backs.
Um, so again tie their red zone.
Um, now on the season, Jones obviously has more red zone total opportunities than blockage, but in just a two game sample size.
But Balash has, uh, 20 Sorry, 12 carries and just 12 opportunities.
Six per game. That's pretty good with Jones.
He has 29 and he's played every game.
I believe eso we're talking 10, so we're only that's only 2.
9 per game, even if it's even if he's even.
If you missed a game somewhere and he's only played nine, that's still I mean, that's That's still just over slightly over three, right? At three point six, I guess not.
Nearly the six per game like blockage has so red zone.
Give Belhadj the advantage so far.
Two advantages for Village, both in, uh, fancy points allowed by the defense and red zone opportunities.
Uh, looking at again.
Peter Howard's projections have Caleb Lodge 12.
89 versus Jones, a 12.17.
You can look at amalgamation production wherever you get projections from So slight edge. Travelodge.
Um, now some other Peter Howard stats, though kind more towards Jones expected points per game obviously favors Jones, although again I do wonder how much that is taken to account.
Potential return of Boston heckler Eso does not really affect this week, Um, and then the average yards per team attempt in yards per team.
A temper game favor Ronald Jones, but I think with the matchup and with the red zone opportunity.
The smart play is to play callin Malaj Now my in my mind There's also one things that I like to play his, you know, market share on my teams, right? I wanna know.
How Maney, Where do I have this player and how many leagues? I only have one model Jones shares where his multiple Balash and girly shares.
He's being started everywhere else.
So the one thing that maybe leans me towards, um oh, before actually, yeah, before I get Thio may be making a fool of myself.
Chris Blackie did I asked about You know, the thing with Godard.
What about the weather? It doesn't look like there's much win this week and, yeah, it's going to rain the entire, uh um, there's also much risk.
Um, so rain rains.
Not great, but, you know, I don't know that it necessary favors the run game because then the ball becomes slippery, easier to fumble.
So what? What What really skews a team away from passing is the wind, So, yeah, I'm not as concerned with the weather this week.
I was a little bit early in the week, but looking at the winds, it doesn't seem to be that powerful.
Um, so I think we're only talking like 10 miles.
It is when he gets into the I believe the threshold.
They really look for us once it gets over 20 miles an hour winds.
That's when you start Thio Thio really get worried and get concerned.
So the numbers say Caleb Lodge.
And this is where my dilemma is because this is again the Onley Ronald Jones leak.
So the fear of missing out on it it is serious enough that where I I'd consider playing Jones over the lodge even if the numbers are saying it.
Part of it, though, is you know how you're massaging numbers, interpreting the numbers, because go back to that floor If I If I don't consider if I consider all of the largest games, including his games, the Jets into his production.
Suddenly Jones actually has the better floor and the better ceiling.
So then then we take the production into account, and suddenly Jones, in that case, looking at the numbers is actually the better play.
So there's, you know, this is where again that the judgment comes, you know, the numbers help that, you know.
And one thing the numbers really showed here was Todd Gurley wasn't the place.
So stop considering Girly.
Stop playing, distract and get to the rial point of the decision, which is Balash versus Jones.
And yeah, and sometimes I will use my other leagues to help make decisions.
And sometimes this is this is probably not the best way to do it.
Oh, I just don't have any stairs of this player.
This I govern another example of two other decisions or to other leagues needing to make decisions.
Um, and how I kind of used them to my advantage to really show which was the better way to lean.
Um, so a bit of similarity in both these leagues.
So we've got, uh, ones that a point per reception, Lee the other one is they're both point per reception leagues.
One just has a couple more bonuses for big plays.
Um, and so really similar in both.
I have DeMarcus Robinson in both.
Actually, I believe the news is that Sammy Watkins will not play.
We'll get to injury shortly.
Um, of course, if there are any questions, I'll get to those as well, eh? so feel free to ask any any sit start questions on Twitter at Center says I can also hear in SportsCastr.
So yes, so to PPR leagues.
DeMarcus Robinson and both Ravens running back in both.
One has Gus Edwards.
The other one is Mark Ingram.
So in the first league, it's the Canada Cup, Actually, big.
Well, it Z three different 14 team leagues.
So, uh, yeah, 42 different teams.
Well, playing for charity, all Canadian to s.
So it's really fun Connect with this, uh, great growing a Canadian fantasy community as well.
And the other one is my home league or one of my home leagues that I've been in.
It's it's actually my first thing I ever joined, Uh, which has now been about eight years ago.
So, uh, you know a lot of pride in that one, too.
A lot of good players in that, um so, uh, again, DeMarcus Robinson in both First what? In the Canada Cup? I've got a convention.
I also have Michael Gallup.
So looking at those three, uh, you know, again looking at Production Gallop and Robinson both scored zero in games where incomes played.
He's at least got something that makes sense of the running back does have the safety Florida the wide receiver.
So give him the edge there.
Terms of ceiling.
None of these players had a game this year of 20 or more fancy points, Gallup has, but not without Dak Prescott.
Without Dak, the best he's managed to get is 13.1.
So not much of a ceiling.
They're like, You know, you could get okay.
He managed to score, I think was like a 25 point week or close to it.
But again, that was with Dak.
So without Dak, it's, you know, the edge goes to Marcus Robinson.
His best is 16.3.
Mark Ingram is 15.
7 Offensive line again.
Edge to Robinson.
UH, adjusted sack rate, which is what we're looking at.
Wide receivers again from football outsiders.
He's their ranks.
Seventh Cowboys aren't bad, though.
11th, whereas the Ravens and because marking is the running back, you would look instead at adjusted line yards.
Their 19th so edge.
Thio Robinson slightly, although gallops pretty close.
Um, so gallop in the Cowboys are playing the Vikings there d be way is minus 4.6.
They've really come come up as a really strong defensive unit.
So not a cakewalk for the Cowboys offensively and be tough for them.
I think, even though you know production through the air is is kind of a factor for Mark Ingram on the planet.
The Titans Titans are 8.9.
That's that's actually higher than the Falcons.
Not that far off of the Jets.
So the Titans, I've been allowing quite a lot of production.
The Raiders, 66 although their defense.
A lot of players may not play because of co vid, so you know either edge.
You give it to either Ingram or Robinson.
But clearly the bad matchup is against Gallup, even though wide receivers have been producing against Minnesota.
But the D V Away is saying, no, it's, you know, you know they've improved, though it's been noticeable as well.
Vegas totals Eso again, favoring, in this case the teams that are favorites.
So obviously you know, So Gallup is hurt by that as the underdogs and their Mass.
I think there's seven point underdogs which this week is about is think it's maybe the third highest this week.
There aren't a whole lot of big street.
I mean, we've been seeing, like, 20 point underdogs a couple weeks in a row, so, uh, you know, seeing the highest only 10.
5 you're like, okay.
Seems seems a not too not too intense, But yes.
So Vegas totals again. Favorite Robinson.
The Chiefs projected to score 32.
5 and again, that might even be higher.
Uh, line could keep going up.
28 for the Ravens.
75 for the Cowboys, For the game total is well, favors the Chiefs Raiders 57 over under, uh, the Ravens types of 50 and then the Cowboys Vikings at 48.5.
So a couple of just toe Robinson Red Zone.
Yes, the running back here is favored 10 red zone carries on the year, two of them inside the five, as well as to red zone targets.
Whereas five red zone targets apiece for Gallup in Robinson.
So edge to Mark Ingram, really the edges with Ingemar, the D.
V O a overall and red zone opportunity and as well as the floor.
So a few reasons to go with Mark Ingram, although I have mentioned quite a bit of DeMarcus Robinson projections this week.
I know Peter Howard to get Look at his predictions.
He loves Michael Gallup and he always projects.
UM has him as the highest, weakened by a significant margin, 10.
51 marking them at 5.
72 and DeMarcus Robinson, a 5.
96 Expected points per game. Again.
Michael Gallops favored UH, 9.
916 point 06 for Ingram, 5.
88 for Robinson, average yards per per team attempt and yards per team. Temper game.
It's close between Gallup and Ingram.
Um favors Gallup, especially the average yards per team attempts.
68 That's super close.
Roberts sits down 0.
370 point 38 So ah, few edges to gallop at the end, so recap so better floor for Ingram.
He also the better d d o a.
The better Red Zone opportunities and and yeah, so 33 instances of edging out there.
DeMarcus Robinson. Better ceiling.
Not counting gallops dealing with Dak on Lee County is stealing without Doc because he doesn't have Jack.
We can't assume much.
As good as Andy Dalton is the best gallops produced with Andy Dalton is 13.1.
So DeMarcus Robinson has the edge and sealing Thea edge with the offensive line.
The edge with the Vegas game script, you know? Well, not so much of the game script, because I guess you you prefer heavy favorites, the running backs.
But it's the, you know, the Chiefs.
You gotta think they're gonna they're gonna score enough points.
Enough of that would be through the air, but yes, the Vegas game total your favorite Robinson that ability to score that many points.
Suppose the game script you would give Thio Ingram technically, But still, you know, choose between a player in a 50 point over under 57 point over under, especially the rider series.
You do favor that, so I'll give the other edge there to Robinson eso.
He's got four instances where he's the best words. Gallup.
All of his winds come with the again.
Looking at Peter Howard's numbers.
The projections expected points per game, the average yards per team attempt yards per team and temper game.
Um, so for myself, I think Robinson's the answer, and so I looked at it at the high end.
Now who's who's the lowest in the most instances for floor again? Galloping Robinson, both zero.
So tie for them.
Gallup is the lowest ceiling so far, So one for Gallop worst offensive line goes toe Mark Ingram, though someone for him, The Devi away again Gallop is the lowest.
The Vegas total of the game total Gallup is the lowest, so you know it's four instances where he's the lowest red zone.
Work is a tie between Gallup and Robinson, both of 55 red zone targets.
So those are all the categories where he's the lowest.
And then you look at the projection This week, Mark Ingram is projected the lowest, well, Peter Howard's projections.
Um, but then Robinson lowest in three other categories.
The expected points per game, average yards per team attempt on average yards per team attempt per game.
So just in, just in many cases, he is.
The lowest is with Gallop Andi, just in case he's the highest as well.
All of this is saying to kind of lean towards the before, looking at Peter Howard's numbers.
Everything is saying Scream away from Gallup.
But he's is one of his players that his his methodology really likes on Peter Howard's a smart guy, so giving Cem thinking, you know, some consideration of Gallup here.
But ultimately I'm going with the Marcus Robinson.
And this almost got confirmed in the next week.
Again, again, talk with the other leading a big play bonus.
Gus Edwards, DeMarcus Robinson, Jamal Williams.
Safest floor. Jamal Williams.
Williams as well scored 28.
Does he each that stealing against the Colts, though I don't know how attainable it is.
Better offensive lines actually tied, UH, both. The Packers.
The Packers are ranked seventh in adjusted line yards.
Theme Chiefs are ranked seventh in adjusted sack rate Again.
Looking at running back and wide receiver, respectively, is how you determine that.
So it's a tie between those two there, Um, but the D v o.
Definitely favorite Robinson, although actually taking the favorites.
We've already mentioned um, close to 8.
6, but the defense rankings, the fancy points allowed by the Titans toe running backs actually the ninth fewest.
Seems like it's more towards wide receivers was the You know, the Raiders in middle of the pack, two wide receivers.
So edge to Robinson there.
So to toe to toe 11 for for Williams again.
Vegas, 32 a half and 57 point over under drywall Williams.
Actually, they're underdogs, So 25 is the lowest, although 51 a half combined is higher than with the Ravens.
Titans have. It's still in both instances.
Favorite DeMarcus Robinson.
Red Zone work does go to Jamal Williams on.
Then again, looking at Peter Howard's numbers.
Most of them actually, all of them.
Favorite Jamal Williams.
His projections. Highest.
Eight expected points per game.
99 average yards per team attempt, 1.
7 It's actually the same for average yards per team of temper game. It's kind of funny.
Um, he's more than tripling up Robinson's numbers in that regard.
So, again, the decision that was clear here was Bench Edwards then.
So you know, kind of work through elimination process and what I also did was OK compared um, I compared the two running backs there to compared across leagues Williams, two angry men and by far favored Williams, which said, Okay, the Williams Robinson one is closer than the Ingram Robinson decision.
So it you know what I did was I used the one league to kind of really say, Yeah, you know, in.
But in this instance, DeMarcus Robinson was clearly the best because it's other league.
He might still be the best.
It's against the better and against better running backs.
They're closer in this regard that, you know, Comparing across leagues, two running backs, Williams beat out Ingram Beetle Gallop, right? So then suddenly it made its okay.
In the first league, Robinson was clearly the choice.
But now I decide.
Between Robinson and Williams everything, though, about this league, the big play bonus really kind of skewed it towards me to basically make it say, I'm gonna play Robinson in both leagues.
So, you know, it's kind of how I I lean that way.
Eso that's and I think that's the better way to kind of use multiple leagues.
Thio gauge production again comparing.
Okay, well, I got Robinson in both these leagues, you know, preparing for these players and then, you know, kind of saying it's close in all regards and then you compare You take Robinson out the peril those players together and see Okay, Well, clearly, Williams is the best out of all of them.
So he's the one that should really be decide between Robinson between and automatic.
Start with Robinson the other leagues.
So that's kind of how that goes.
I've got a few minutes left.
So actually, let's get to the, you know, talking about some updated injury reports.
Active, inactive lists again.
There was gonna be always gonna be, um, the saints and how they do things we know breathes out.
But we don't I don't know that we're going to get any information in many more information right now.
Maybe find out who's who's actually starting.
But because that could be helpful, Who knows? Alright, I'm just gonna quickly look through the inactive to see if there's any fancy relevant players when you talk about.
Okay, well, here we go.
Teddy Bridgewater is inactive, so it looks like Yeah, not so much cer*****y there.
But we'll find out.
I don't know that it affects the players so much.
I feel like that the Panthers offense is always designed and has been the last couple years, Even without Matt Rule to just okay, we're gonna force feed just a few targets.
It's the main force, wherever the running back is and the three main receivers in D. J. Moore.
Curtis Samuel Now Robby Anderson.
I feel like it stay to say, maybe the upside for everyone goes down, but it's against the alliance.
Good enough matchup.
I'm not gonna be afraid to start Anderson or more.
You know, if I actually I'm definitely afraid to start Anderson because it seems like the Panthers have been using them in a certain way.
Like they're they're they're designing him to get open quickly and, you know, get open all around the field.
I feel like that's going to stay the same.
It's really Can d J.
Moore get the best passes to take advantage of defense is what we'll see, and same with Curtis Samuel.
So be slightly more hesitant there, but no fear.
With Robby Anderson, certainly, or Mike Davis, I still think they're both roles.
Maybe an overall upside decrease for everyone is really more more than anything else.
What needs to happen.
Um, Danny Amendola is an active Kenny Golladay is an active DeAndre, swifts and active, but it looks like Matt Stafford's plain.
So no worries there.
Um Leviticus Renault inactive again.
He's out this last week as well.
Although I returned from the Covad list is it active? So, uh, in there, Expect Birkhead Harris.
It seems that those have been kind of the main two and whites been there, but really as a clear number three.
So I still think Harrison Birkhead or decent starts against the Patriots if you need them.
Alright, Saints, nothing special.
I know Martial Latimores out helps the Falcons Josh hills out as well.
So I'm more tight end work for Trautman and Jared Cook.
I'm other inactives.
Adam Humphreys is inactive for the Titans, so I think that locks in, Um, that certainly locks in Johnny Smith, I think is the top three.
Um so maybe I'd actually go return to my initial thought.
My initial thought there was Smith.
I have him ranked.
So maybe trust that ranking and go with Smith.
Also, Brad Harvin at the rundown Be, uh hang on a second.
It's the at the rundown.
B h, I think, um, yeah, I'm taking forever to load. Thanks.
Yeah, at the rundown bh So, um yeah, Kayla's got a good question.
What's the scoring setting? So asking Justin Jefferson, Jacoby Meyers, Terry MacLaurin.
Oh, that's tricky.
My initial thought there is Terry McLaren's must start every week.
He's the number one target, and it's such a great matchup against the Bangles.
There's no way I'm benching MacLaurin.
So yeah, I think for scoring setting between Jefferson and Myers.
So I don't know that the scoring said it even matters much there, either.
Because, well, maybe maybe you think you know Jefferson Less targets in that offense overall would be better, the better option in a, you know, like a half point or even no point per reception.
Uh, just looking at yardage totals That might be better as opposed to, you know what is expect to be ac***ulation of catches for Myers against the Texans.
So, yeah, maybe scoring saying does matter there.
But I'm leaning Myers either way, okay, I think even in a standard league, expect Myers to be able to score enough and I don't like the touchdown chances for Myers or Jefferson.
Um, either way, I Yeah.
So McLaurin Myers Jefferson.
I'm definitely saying McLaurin started to though.
Um, I would probably say Myers again, this is reflected in, you know, some of my DFS lineups where I'm running Dalvin Cook solo, not not stacking that game expecting It's gonna be a game where the Vikings are just gonna be able to run all over the Cowboys and in games where they can run over teams you know, without they will like.
That's That's how the Vikings wanna play.
If they don't need to throw the ball, they won't.
And so I just see it as being it's It's a game where Dalvin Cook's gonna run all over the Cowboys.
Ac***ulate maybe another 200 yards, get multiple touchdowns, and I know it's tough. Thio.
It's tough to know how much production they're gonna be needed for on the, you know, on the Vikings from the receiver stand point of view.
Now, I do wonder, um, I don't know, I guess the problem, you know, we could arise in both instances, but e because I suppose the Patriots could also go into that run heavy approach because you could almost argue they're kind of built that way, too.
If they can run the football, they will.
I don't know if they'll be able to run as easily.
Against the Texans, though, is the Vikings will be able to against the Cowboys.
Maybe, Maybe I'm wrong there.
I guess we also have to wonder.
The other thing, too, is I'm much more confident in.
You know, the Texans ability Thio, Thio either be in the lead or if the Patriots, who have lied to keep up with them and force the Patriots to continue to pass where? E note.
Andy Dalton's returning.
But you know, I still haven't quite seen that yet.
Who knows what he's gonna be like first came back.
Don't haven't quite seen upside yet with the Cowboys, to maybe think that they're gonna force the Vikings to throw the football.
You know, I'm saying McLaurin for sure, and then leaning Jacoby Meyers over Justin Jefferson.
So yeah, so I believe I went through.
I guess I didn't go through Washington's and actives, which are Jeff Benet and John Trail in minute wide receiver.
More for the Sims But obviously it still means everything goes through.
Uh, Terry MacLaurin.
So, yeah, I think that's it for here.
Yeah, trying to think.
I guess one thing to go through is the injuries for later and provision there.
So it's quickly.
All right, so yeah, I guess specifically, concert in the four o'clock game since everyone's kind of mentioned activate active.
So All right, Sam Dark Donald's doubtful, but he's already been announced.
Um, currently, Joey, both is coming back.
So doesn't necessarily help the the Jets.
Um, so for the Packers, Tyler Irving's been ruled out, but we still have Alan Lazar as questionable hours are very shepherd agreements Name Brown. They're all questionable.
Adam is doubtful.
Um, and I also believe Kevin King injured something he's not.
Kevin King isn't listed here, but he's also which I think helps.
Certainly the colts receivers, uh, the chair Alexander returns.
It does take away from that upside.
Um, there's nothing really there.
So really looking for fantasy players? I don't.
Sammy Watkins on on Sunday night.
Looks like he's questionable as well.
Which is tricky for some of those leagues from signing with Robinson.
Not sure what to Dio.
Um, I'm kind of taking it that I don't know if his well, Sara Watkins has had quite a history of taking a while to come back from injury.
So if if they're still not 100% confident, you wanna feel like even if he plays the chance of aggravation gonna be so strong that I'm playing Robinson, I think Still with confidence.
Um, so yeah, so it is interesting.
Thio Thio Ponder that.
I guess we are closing in on noon.
So let's get to their lineup.
So this is your last chance for questions again either in the SportsCastr chat or on Twitter at Sandra says, Hopefully you gotta going through the process of deciding lineup decisions, especially when there's multiple players involved for one spot.
You know, the process of elimination, right? Sometimes sometimes the most obvious thing is who not to play more than who to play, and that will help you kind of focusing on the decision.
Sometimes it's obvious sometimes one player really stands out like, uh, decision have the Canada Cup, where just like DeMarcus Robinson was really standing out again outside of the all the Peter Howard status.
They, you know, resoundingly say Go play Michael Gallup.
But I just have a hard time trusting it on offense in general.
Um, eso as always, you can follow me on Twitter at Sandra says, Follow the full press fantasy pod do weekly episodes in season.
Uh, just more content and the off season's Well, we never stop.
So, uh, you know, talking rankings trades and this week we really focused on injuries a lot.
How managers can kind of prepare themselves for injuries.
What to do in those instances.
Eso get at FBC Underscore Fantasy pod.
As always, download the full press coverage app.
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Also later today, after the afternoon games before something like football, we'll be back on SportsCastr.
I'll be joining me in Glendon as he hosts our Sunday night recap show.
Believe Brayden Holt check will be there as well.
Um, eso you're looking forward to that.
Come back at 7 p.
m. Eastern here on SportsCastr.
Um obviously could help with my shirt.
For those watching the video Packers fan, I'm hoping to be, uh, reacted celebrating and packers win, But we'll have to find out and quite an exciting game.
Quite a lot of exciting games of football.
And hopefully, um, you know, we've given I Hopefully I've given some good, um, no advice or are insight into process on how toe really make these decisions and come to conclusions.
And hopefully I wish you all the best of luck this week in fantasy.
Uh, this look to everyone.
And we'll see you all later for the full press coverage.
Sunday night reaction. So? So thank you all.
Once again, call center signing out.