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00:00:22
good Friday, everybody.
00:00:23
This is taking sides show, and I'm the host Hal Walsh were brought to you by us.
00:00:28
Odd dot com Make sure you go to us dash shots, check out all the great videos that in content that we got out there this week for all the different NFL games, of course.
00:00:40
Got some MLB going on this week, too.
00:00:43
So definitely gonna be a great show.
00:00:44
I will be doing this one solo because no holy parlays today, but that's the right.
00:00:50
The band must go on a Z intended so really looking forward to this one today.
00:00:56
Tons of NFL this week.
00:00:58
Obviously, the big news coming out of Kansas City is That's where Levian Bell will be taking his brand new act all the way out to Arrowhead Stadium on, you know, sort of a ring chasing situation right there.
00:01:12
So, you know, you look at what Andy Reid's been able to do in the past with pass catching running backs, and this is just absolutely, uh, stuff.
00:01:21
Fantastic move.
00:01:22
On the Wednesday show, Paul and I, we discussed this and possible landing spots and where he could possibly go.
00:01:29
Kansas City, I believe was probably the the third or fourth probably most likely destination for for ballot this point.
00:01:38
Uh, you know, and this is just a wealth of riches.
00:01:44
Now for the Kansas City Chiefs, you talk about a team that already has Tyreek Hill.
00:01:49
Travis, Kelsey, you know, now you add, obviously, Clyde Edwards Hilaire there in the draft, and now we're putting love John Bell.
00:01:59
I had a buddy of mine shout out to Danny ***ton.
00:02:02
What's up there? Uh, and he kind of had a question today about, you know, what do I do with this guy and fantasy Can Can I get a trade for him now? You know, maybe a little well, asking too much.
00:02:15
He was trying to go for Zeke Elliot right there.
00:02:17
But this is sort of a situation now where it'll be like the Cleveland backfield, where you're gonna have Kareem Hunt.
00:02:24
You know, I should say the Cleveland backfield when you had Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
00:02:29
But, you know, I think that both of these guys were gonna be very productive once that time comes Now it is worth noting, of course, that you know, Levian bells.
00:02:40
I think the earliest the earliest that he can join the team is Wednesday, and that's gonna be a chooser.
00:02:48
Uh, you know, they're gonna be taking on the bills this week.
00:02:51
And, you know, obviously you'd love tohave bell in the line up there, but you know, not the case.
00:02:57
New NFL rules have habit is where you have.
00:03:01
If you're switching teams, you need to perform five Negative Cove. It test.
00:03:07
So that alone right there is You know, I don't think it's gonna be hard for Bell to do that, But, you know, when we talk about you know what it means to the team? Yeah, of course.
00:03:17
The Chiefs, they're gonna be souped up that they got love Ian Bell coming in the mix.
00:03:21
But you wonder, will that be a distraction going into the Monday late afternoon game against the Buffalo Bills? Which, you know, we could probably bring up a little later.
00:03:30
But, uh, this is this is just a great situation here for the Kansas City Chiefs.
00:03:35
And I'm very excited, You know that that love Bell's gonna gonna have a great chance here to do some some ring chasing.
00:03:42
So, uh, you know, definitely definitely kicks off what it intends to be a great week.
00:03:48
Six of the NFL season, By the way, since I'm here solo tryingto share everything I'm doing at the beginning for us to do the ad read.
00:03:56
But make sure you guys go to bet 3 65 use the promo code US odds 100 for 100% deposit.
00:04:02
Match that right there.
00:04:05
Bet 3 65.
00:04:07
Also stay tuned.
00:04:08
We got some or offers later coming up in the show.
00:04:10
So you definitely want to take advantage of these A.
00:04:14
Z always.
00:04:15
You know, check on the bottom There.
00:04:16
You can follow us on Twitter at taking underscore sides on.
00:04:19
You can follow me as well at 14 a dot Walsh.
00:04:22
Alright, so you know, I intended Thio just go kind of game by game breakdown.
00:04:28
What's most important here, and that's exactly what we're gonna dio.
00:04:31
However, the order got switched up a little bit because as of Friday morning, there was, ah, huge outbreak there at the Indianapolis Colts facility.
00:04:42
And you know now this week's game is certainly in question against the Cincinnati Bengals.
00:04:47
Now, you know, as we know in the owner Jim Marks a kind of, ah, loose cannon where he thinks that this game is is gonna be, uh, go on as scheduled.
00:04:59
And I just I have no idea how that's gonna happen.
00:05:01
Uh, you know, especially this close toe game day on Sunday.
00:05:05
And this isn't just a couple, you know, pause that they doug believe Rotoworld claimed it as a, uh, as more of a an outbreak, if you will.
00:05:15
So, yeah, it's upsetting because there were actually two plays that I really liked a lot in this game.
00:05:20
And, you know, look, we're going to start with this game anyway.
00:05:23
Hopefully, uh, you know, the game goes on a schedule because I really think that these air to great money making opportunities here and, you know, that's kind of where I'm at looking at this game.
00:05:35
Of course, I'm absolutely loving the Colts in this matchup.
00:05:39
You know, we take a look at the line play in this.
00:05:42
I don't know how Cincinnati would be able to handle, uh, the Indianapolis defensive line.
00:05:48
Uh, you know, we don't know exactly who was tested positive yet, but of course, if any of those guys were out, then it's gonna be a tough situation, but indeed, this whole season has just really struggled toe get big plays.
00:05:59
I know in that that Thursday night game in week two against the Browns, they were able to to move the ball well, but that's just that.
00:06:06
That's kind of their style.
00:06:07
And that's how they roll in that regard.
00:06:09
So I'm you know, I have no confidence here.
00:06:12
I know.
00:06:13
Indianapolis kind of got shredded up last week by the Browns, but this is a spot where the Bangles we're certainly going to struggle.
00:06:20
It pains me to say that as a Joe Mixon fantasy owner, but, uh, you know, obviously we're trying to win money here in one week where I'm sorry.
00:06:28
Well, yeah, we tryto anybody what we hear.
00:06:31
And, you know, we don't worry about that that fantasy stuff in that regard.
00:06:34
So I know that the culture eight point favorites in this game to me I think they're gonna absolutely run away with this one.
00:06:41
Uh, not even gonna be closer against the Bangles.
00:06:44
But the place that I really like is the under.
00:06:46
And to get into this, of course, it all starts with Philip Rivers because You know, I've said this a million times.
00:06:52
This guy just cannot throw the football anymore.
00:06:54
It's embarrassing, but he's that he's even still out on the field.
00:06:57
Guys got so many **** kids, it should be home taking care of them.
00:07:00
But you know him playing out there is not any good, right? And you know, if we know anything about Cincinnati, you can run the football against these guys.
00:07:08
Uh, you know, and I just It's not going.
00:07:12
It hasn't been going as well for Indianapolis this season.
00:07:15
Jonathan Taylor.
00:07:16
You know, taking over the Bell Cal role in terms of rushing the football.
00:07:20
Now you know Heinz in there a little bit with receiving out of the backfield.
00:07:26
But this is just not in India offense that is designed to make big plays down the field.
00:07:30
So when we look at the total here, it 46 I would absolutely love maybe by that Apple point Goto, 47.
00:07:36
But you know, it's funny.
00:07:38
I know nobody wants to take.
00:07:40
Nobody wants to take any of these unders on NFL games right now, but this is absolutely the one that you need to be doing it Uh and yeah, you know, if this game does go on, I mean, I I absolutely see no way that it happens on Sunday.
00:07:54
Hopefully, they were able to move it toe Monday or Tuesday, You know, kind of what they did with the Bills Titans game this week and so many others throughout the season.
00:08:02
Uh, this is this is really a **** good spot for both, you know, the Colts and the under in this one.
00:08:09
I know if some of your books out there take that action on those reverses where you could put both on there.
00:08:14
That's certainly something that I'm loving.
00:08:16
And, uh, yeah, that's that's going to be the number one play of the week, assuming that this game goes down.
00:08:23
So once again, colts minus eight with the under, uh, 46 hopefully 47.
00:08:29
If we can get it there.
00:08:30
All right, now, I'm done sharing toe all the different outlets.
00:08:34
Now, you guys got my undivided attention here.
00:08:37
Of course, you know we'll break down that first game where everybody have to be played, But now we are ready to go, folks.
00:08:43
The Cleveland Browns of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:08:46
It is an interesting one here because, you know, we we see this open up a 3.
00:08:51
5.
00:08:52
We saw it go.
00:08:53
And now I'm sorry.
00:08:54
3.
00:08:55
5 in favor of the Steelers, and we saw it go down to three.
00:08:56
Now, on Wednesday's show, I did say, You know, let's let's wait on some of these games And luckily, this is one that actually went in the favor.
00:09:04
Some of the other ones I was talking about were weren't so kind to us, but here I really like the Cleveland Browns A to 3.5.
00:09:11
This is Paul and eyes, uh, take Assad pick of the week.
00:09:15
And you know, now that we're getting it at four.
00:09:18
I mean, how could you not love that now, A couple factors at play here, of course.
00:09:22
Uh, Pittsburgh is getting 83% of the money.
00:09:25
While you know, we're seeing the bets that a 50 50 that's typically not a good a good sign.
00:09:31
But, you know, I'm in NFL this season.
00:09:34
These numbers have been, uh, they haven't been that telling as they are, and you know, whether you're betting basketball or baseball or something like that.
00:09:42
But, um, again, one of the things that I heard today I didn't even think about it.
00:09:46
But this is gonna be the first time that Myles Garrett is facing the Pittsburgh Steelers Since the infamous you know, helmet, uh, you know, over over the head thing with Mason Rudolph.
00:09:55
And, uh, you know, a lot of a lot of claims were made there by by Myles Garrett.
00:10:00
And, you know, some people will say, You know what? You waited so **** long to come out with this Obviously, uh, claiming that Rudolph called them.
00:10:09
Ah, no, no word that we never talk about.
00:10:11
And, you know, like, if that was the case, why why wouldn't you come out with it sooner? So a lot of people are kind of, you know, calling calling bluff here on Garrett with that, but nevertheless, I mean, this man, he got himself a hefty contract in the off season.
00:10:26
This is a game that he certainly wants toe, you know, make his presence known. Obviously.
00:10:30
So that's a nice port.
00:10:32
That's a nice part. So look at this one.
00:10:34
Uh, you know, as we talked about on Wednesday, both of these teams you know you're not going to run the football against them, That it's just it hasn't happened.
00:10:42
Miles Sanders broke a huge play last week on sort of an all out blitz play from the Steelers.
00:10:48
And you know that attributed Thio huge yardage day from them.
00:10:51
But typically, this is not, you know, the team that you do that again.
00:10:54
So, um, if you take a look on us dash odds dot com and you could see on the bottom of the screen Um, you know, I put its, um, profits up for quarterbacks this week, and you know, I've got both Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield for over over on the touchdown number.
00:11:11
Now Ben Roethlisberger does have ah, 1.
00:11:14
5 number in this game with a very exotic minus 1 70 on the juice.
00:11:20
So that kind of sucks.
00:11:21
But I will say that this is definitely the game that you take a chance like that.
00:11:25
Uh, Now, on the other hand, with Baker Mayfield, I was looking at the odds on William Hill.
00:11:30
They didn't have those up for Baker just yet, but again, he's thrown two touchdowns in the last four games, so This is certainly a definitely a good spot for him. Siegel.
00:11:40
Thank you very much for the donation right there.
00:11:43
That will certainly go into the good good funds.
00:11:45
So definitely, definitely looking forward to spending somebody on that at the end of the season.
00:11:49
But yeah.
00:11:51
I mean, look, Brown's plus four.
00:11:52
This is the This is the time that you make the move on that don't even wait for this opportunity to go back down to 3 to 3.
00:11:59
5 or three. Whatever.
00:12:01
You get four right there.
00:12:02
Pretty good number. Andi.
00:12:04
Look, I don't know if money lines the way to go.
00:12:06
One of the highest bets this week, that is that is gaining a lot of traction in terms of money coming in.
00:12:12
That is the Steelers money line.
00:12:14
And, you know, and Paul talked about it on Wednesday to that's that's the play that he actually likes in that game.
00:12:19
But for the battle or for the sense of taking aside, you know, we we are on opposite sides.
00:12:26
That, of course, with me on the brands of him on the Steelers, uh, again, you wanna go with the Steelers? I think money line is certainly the way to go in this one.
00:12:34
Another game out here that that is getting comes. Attraction.
00:12:37
Ah, lot of money pouring in on this team is gonna be the Chicago Bears Carolina Panthers.
00:12:42
We saw this open up as the Panthers favored by 2.
00:12:45
5, and now it's all the way down to one in favor of Carolina.
00:12:49
Moneyline changed quite drastically to Bears.
00:12:52
Went from plus 1 25 to even money.
00:12:54
Panthers from minus 1 41 toe minus 1 14.
00:12:58
So very interesting thing to note in this one.
00:13:01
When the lines came out earlier in the season, the Bears were actually 2.
00:13:04
5 point favorites right now, this before any games were played in the NFL this season.
00:13:08
But has enough really changed in this in this matchup? To say, you know, the Panthers are worthy of being favored by 2.
00:13:16
5? I certainly don't think so.
00:13:18
The Sharps out there certainly don't think so.
00:13:21
You know, with this line moving all the way down a one right now, so I'm not.
00:13:25
This is not a thing.
00:13:26
I'm falling into some trap or anything like that.
00:13:29
the fact, you know, and I talked about this lot to when you're the home team and you're not getting at least three points in that game.
00:13:36
Uh, I'm sorry or you're not giving three points in that situation.
00:13:41
That is a recipe for disaster in my eyes.
00:13:44
And a lot of people already snuffed this one out.
00:13:46
A zai mentioned 79%.
00:13:49
Let's just call it 4/5 for good measure.
00:13:51
4/5 of the money is going out there to Chicago Bears.
00:13:55
While the bets are right around 50 50.
00:13:57
I can't.
00:14:00
There's no way I can conceivably think about taking the Panthers, and this one couple notes that we should absolutely take advantage of again.
00:14:08
I wrote up.
00:14:09
So this week on us odds, I wrote up profits for, um, for the quarterback position, the, um, the running back position and wide receivers.
00:14:21
So ah, lot of a lot of bears love in that one.
00:14:24
Of course, I've got David Montgomery and Alan Robinson both as guys that could hit overs on a couple of profits there, so I would definitely take a look there.
00:14:34
Uh, you know, Carolina is allowing the second most rushing yards per carry.
00:14:41
This season.
00:14:42
They are at five, almost 5.
00:14:44
5.
00:14:45
Here, you take a look at the defensive line and what they're doing against the past.
00:14:48
Not much.
00:14:49
They only have five sacks this season.
00:14:50
In five games.
00:14:51
They're 13.5%.
00:14:53
Pressure rate is second worst in the NFL this season, and so is the five sacks that they got to kind of go hand in hand there.
00:15:00
So you know this is gonna give Nick Nick Foles plenty of time to throw the football.
00:15:05
They could get the running game going with David Montgomery, who's kind of like God's.
00:15:09
He's kind of been a disappointment this season.
00:15:11
Now that Tariq Owens out of the mix, we're starting to see him get more targets.
00:15:15
So you fantasy owners or certainly loving that, and you know, part of the reason I guess Montgomery's numbers look even worse than they do.
00:15:22
You take a look at their last two opponents they faced.
00:15:25
Indianapolis Colts were as a team.
00:15:27
They were only gaining yard and a half per carry against the Bucks on Thursday night last week.
00:15:32
They're only getting 2.
00:15:33
5 yards per carry against all other teams, they're getting almost five yards per carry.
00:15:37
So again, this is just a fantastic matchup for David Montgomery, all your fantasy owners or your profit owners or you bears.
00:15:43
Ah, betters better favors, whatever.
00:15:46
Uh, this is certainly the game to take advantage job.
00:15:49
And let's keep in mind to bears.
00:15:50
They got the three extra days of preparation going into this game.
00:15:53
So I'm absolutely love in Chicago here, and this is going to be a nice, easy victory for them on the road.
00:15:59
So no Mazz.
00:16:01
All right, let's go to be Atlanta Minnesota game.
00:16:06
Little, little, uh, titling on myself here When I actually wrote the Prophet articles earlier, I actually thought Atlanta was the home team in this game.
00:16:14
But luckily we got that fixed.
00:16:16
Nobody called it out, and we will be playing this one in Minnesota.
00:16:19
So, uh, well, obviously you know the first and foremost thing here, this will be the first game of the post.
00:16:26
Dan Quinn era Atlanta making the move.
00:16:28
They even got rid of their g m. Thomas Dimitroff.
00:16:31
So, uh, you know, typically, we've seen this in years previous, where a team fires a coach you know, early late, whatever in this season, and that team comes out firing on all cylinders.
00:16:43
I just don't have that sort of feeling right now for the Atlanta Falcons.
00:16:47
You know, we saw the Vikings play very well on Sunday night football in Seattle.
00:16:51
**** near came away with that money line victory would have been for May would have been, you know, great.
00:16:57
Uh, you know, since I I remember that was the game where I took the Vikings plus 8.
00:17:01
5, and I even took him on the money.
00:17:03
Lana's Well, so you know, I I made a little bit of a profit there, but not as much as I really would have loved Thio.
00:17:09
Uh, this, You know, every time we talk about the falcons, we got to talk about the running backs that air, that air going against him.
00:17:16
So But also, I completely forgot to mention, But, you know, I believe it was the Falcons that had some positive tests, but Cove, in going into the week Friday was a clean slate, no positive tests or anything like that.
00:17:30
So, again, this game should be played on Sunday as scheduled.
00:17:34
If not.
00:17:35
I would expect this one to at least be a Monday, if absolutely necessary Tuesday.
00:17:39
But I do think that this one will get in.
00:17:41
Unlike the cold scheme.
00:17:43
I think that's, uh, that's kind of a that's gonna be awash there.
00:17:46
So, um, in in, in looking at this match up again, running backs against the Falcons are straight up money in the bank.
00:17:54
When we look at, you know which aspect, of course, toe.
00:17:58
Go in here.
00:17:59
It's obviously the received in part, right? So when we look at this in total this season, now keep in mind.
00:18:06
This is five games and five different running backs have done somewhat significant damage to them.
00:18:11
Tariq Owen was really the one leg behind in Week three.
00:18:16
He only had three receptions on six targets for 20 yards.
00:18:19
But looking at as a whole, uh, this season running backs against the Falcons, 37 receptions on 42 targets for 323 yards and four touchdowns.
00:18:31
Reason why this happened so much.
00:18:33
The Falcons.
00:18:34
They love to play this sort of umbrella like defense, where they'll essentially put all their guys maybe 5, 10 yards.
00:18:42
You know towards the first down marker, as opposed to right there at the line of scrimmage.
00:18:46
So you know it allows thes teams toe, have short passes and gain gain yardage on Atlanta.
00:18:52
That way, this is a team that also really sucks against the tight end.
00:18:56
So it could be a nice day for urge Smith Naval Kyle Rudolph in the mix.
00:19:00
But, you know, I just think in general, since the Vikings are at home, you know, they they haven't really played that well this season.
00:19:07
Everybody kind of, you know, hiked them up coming into the season.
00:19:10
But let's be honest, that a lot of injuries, just a lot of a lot of guys put in positions that really weren't ready.
00:19:16
I'm really shocked at how Adam Dealings been playing on offense.
00:19:19
I thought he was heading towards the back nine of his career, but he's really stepped it up earlier this season.
00:19:24
Him and Justin Jefferson both have some fantastic matchups as well This weekend, Uh, great number I saw on Jefferson.
00:19:32
Eight receptions on 10 deep targets already.
00:19:34
Now he's only had a max of five targets in a game this season, so I would start as a Justin Jefferson fantasy owner, driver of the Justin Jefferson bus.
00:19:46
You know, I I need to see more production out of my man, but I think that this could definitely be a week to do so.
00:19:51
Um, you know another interesting note here to every single quarterback toe to face.
00:19:57
Well, I should say four of the five star four of the five starting quarterbacks to face the Atlanta Falcons this season have all thrown for over 300 yards.
00:20:06
And the only team that didn't do it was Chicago Bears.
00:20:10
Now here's where it gets interesting.
00:20:13
So Travis Key starts that game.
00:20:14
I believe he went for like, 1 30 through the air before getting replaced by Nick Foles, who made that miraculously come back against the Falcons, You know, so he throws for, I think, 1 80 in that game.
00:20:25
But, you know, all in all, the two of them combined to throw for over 300 yards.
00:20:30
So what we can say in that matchup is that you know all five teams to face the Atlanta Falcons this season have thrown for over 300 yards.
00:20:38
You could also check that out on us out dot com and the quarterback section.
00:20:42
I rode up a nice little blurb there for Kirk cousins to get over 300 yards passing this week.
00:20:47
And, you know, you're only getting minus 1 15 on the juice through William Hills.
00:20:51
That is certainly, uh I'm sorry.
00:20:53
I believe the proper there is that to 87 a half.
00:20:56
So, you know, you don't even have to get the full 300.
00:20:58
But again, this is just, you know, speaking of what kind of a matchup this is for the Vikings offense against the Falcons.
00:21:04
Needless to say, folks, I absolutely love the Vikings in this game.
00:21:09
They are minus four currently, but you know, you want to get a little razzle dazzle, Lee, and kind of, you know, bring this down to a field goal.
00:21:17
I certainly would not falter there, um, you know, and again to I kind of like the over in this one.
00:21:23
You know, when we look at everything that goes into this game, you know, less preparation, maybe from the falcons with, uh, you know, just, you know, being being weary that they might not get the game in due to Cove it.
00:21:36
You also look at, you know, maybe we get some trick plays with, you know, new coaching going on for the Falcons.
00:21:42
Like again? This is kind of what I'm talking about.
00:21:44
When you get a new coach in there, they wanna bring some new life into the office, just to the team in general.
00:21:49
So, uh, you know, I think that, you know, the optimism is definitely lending itself to the over in this game.
00:21:54
It sits at 54 a half, but again, you know, may you know, Paul, we like toe diddle with the numbers and get him or into our favor.
00:22:01
So, uh, especially what Paulie doing parlays.
00:22:04
You know that That's absolutely the right way to go with that.
00:22:07
So, uh, definitely take a look into this game.
00:22:09
And, of course, all the prospects for the Minnesota Vikings players on us.
00:22:14
Uh, dash well us dash dot dot com.
00:22:19
All right. First water breaking the deck.
00:22:21
So next game we're going to we're going to Philly.
00:22:24
And, of course, I had to rep the buoy baysox had today.
00:22:28
No, it's not for the Baltimore Ravens, but it's ah, little odes.
00:22:32
My mad Adam Wagner out there.
00:22:34
By the way, You catch me on his show this Sunday, 11. 30 Eastern.
00:22:38
I'll post all the stuff on my Twitter.
00:22:40
I ain't going through all the stuff right now, but break down some of the best NFL bets throughout the week.
00:22:45
Uh, you know Z is in there too.
00:22:47
Just great guys over there at the wagon wire.
00:22:49
So definitely make sure you check them out.
00:22:51
And who on this Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles game, Uh, spread open at 7.
00:22:57
7.
00:22:58
5.
00:22:59
Some places were all the way up to eight right now.
00:23:00
And I think a lot of people are starting to see what I'm seeing on that.
00:23:03
This could be very well be a huge day for Lamar Jackson.
00:23:06
So, uh, we've talked about this a lot on this show before, But, you know, typically teams don't want to run at the Philadelphia Eagles.
00:23:13
They're usually very good at stopping.
00:23:14
The run has been the case.
00:23:16
This is not that they're terrible, but, you know, they're sort of right around league average.
00:23:20
However, instead of, you know, running the football here, there are plenty of guys that that could get some touches today.
00:23:28
Now, when I mean that, we mean, of course, marquees Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews, now Baltimore In terms of their targets, they really don't spread it out a lot.
00:23:38
They really don't, you know.
00:23:39
And this could very well be a tough matchup for Marqise Brown.
00:23:43
Uh, you know, going there with very Slaten, their dairy sleigh.
00:23:46
But, you know, this is this good, very well be huge game for Andrews, looking at tight ends against Eagles this season, they have a total of 323 yards and five touchdowns in those five matchup.
00:23:57
So again, I think that this could be a day where you know, I didn't write him up this week for the profits, but you know, Lamar Jackson could definitely get off on some runs this week.
00:24:07
You know, again, when we talk about running the football against Philly, we're talking in the traditional sense of up the middle and, you know, through the tackles and whatnot are through the guards and whatnot.
00:24:16
But, you know, I look Lamar is second best quarterback to patch from homes in this league.
00:24:22
Ah, he's definitely going to get off on his with with the numbers this week on, you know, furthermore, Baltimore Russian for 5.
00:24:29
6 yards per carry that is best in the NFL.
00:24:32
So again, you know, this is typically a D that you don't want to run against.
00:24:37
But again, if we start getting some of those nice Lamar Jackson runs, that's gonna open it up for the play action.
00:24:42
And again you d efs, folks, If I don't see Mark Andrews in your lineup this week, I'm no, I'm coming to your house and I'm putting them in for you, grabbing your **** cell phone and putting them in myself.
00:24:52
But, yeah, obviously, that one.
00:24:54
You know, we're not getting not getting too crazy on that one.
00:24:58
Baltimore minus the eight.
00:25:00
Not a bad bet.
00:25:01
I, you know, if you want to throw Baltimore money line a couple parlays.
00:25:04
I think that's probably the way to go as well.
00:25:05
All right, Next game on the jacket.
00:25:08
We got the Houston Texans at the Tennessee Titans, and I think it's going to surprise a lot of people to know that I love the Texans in this matchup.
00:25:14
Now, one thing that we've got to keep in mind Tennessee.
00:25:17
They had the short week coming into this game.
00:25:20
So that is, uh, you know, the Tuesday game that they played there and again when looking at it.
00:25:26
They're three and 11 straight up on short week game since 2000 and 13 again Texans, they had their best performance of the season.
00:25:34
Uh, in in week five against Jacksonville.
00:25:37
Uh, you know, when we learned to Shawn Watson, I think you know a lot of us coming into the season.
00:25:41
We said, How is he going to get this done without D hop? I don't know how he's doing the folks, I mean, obviously spreading the ball around a lot more, But he's still on pace for career highs and yours and touchdowns.
00:25:51
Uh, you know, the, you know, Bill O'Brien out of the mix there now in Houston.
00:25:56
I'm sure that's only gonna do good things for him and the rest of the team as well.
00:26:00
So, uh, this is definitely a matchup that I want to take a look at.
00:26:04
And yeah, I was just talking about Mark and Jews as a nice DFS play this week.
00:26:08
Well, let's take a look at the Shawn Watson because he could actually, you know, really help you out in terms of low ownership in great production.
00:26:15
In 15 road games as an underdog throughout his career, DeShaun Watson is averaging just under 24 draftkings points.
00:26:23
It would also help you to know that he's got five games of over 30 draftkings points in that span is Well, uh, if you thought my Grabel and his defense was gonna be good against to show Watson, you're mistaking there to my friends, Uh, he's averaging 25 draftkings points in three meetings against the rebel lead Titans, you know, since he's taken over.
00:26:46
So I again finding out the stats I'm a sucker for, and I love digging through and everything and finding this all out.
00:26:53
But, um, it's really gonna bode well for him this week.
00:26:56
Also to another thing that we really didn't touch on Tennessee, ranked 27th in the NFL and an explosive pass rate allowed toe wide receivers.
00:27:06
Does that mean that just means you know, 2020 plus yard plays? Tennessee is giving up a ton of them this season.
00:27:13
On the flip side of this.
00:27:14
Now again, I do like Houston plus 3.5.
00:27:17
I would not mind buying up at half point to make it a nice four, But, uh, you know Derrick Henry, of course.
00:27:23
You know, we know this guy is one of the best in the league.
00:27:25
Houston's run defense has been awful.
00:27:27
Uh, they're in the bottom third of D d o a and yards per carry a 4.
00:27:32
7 some.
00:27:34
You know, I think that this could eventually be, uh, you know ah, pretty good scoring game.
00:27:40
The total is that 53 points.
00:27:42
The way I'm looking at this is live again.
00:27:45
Well, I do like the Texans in this match up with the point.
00:27:48
I do think that look, we could probably see a little bit of a slow start from the Titans.
00:27:53
Keep in mind, keeping in mind, knowing that they're three and 11 on these short week game since 2013.
00:27:59
And, of course, you know, playing on Tuesday night, there's a lot going against them early.
00:28:02
So again, I'm not necessarily loving the over right away, but I think that there is a nice spot in this game for the Titans to kind of claw back late and maybe win this game by a field goal.
00:28:16
But I absolutely love the Texans.
00:28:18
That plus four.
00:28:19
If we could get him there this week, Uh, one game that I'm sure everybody's just absolutely excited about.
00:28:27
With the Washington football team at the New York Giants this week looking at the spread on this one, I believe the Giants are still too and ahead.
00:28:36
Yes, they are.
00:28:37
They are 2.5 point favorites in this one. Moneyline.
00:28:39
They're at my small 40 eight Redskins plus 1 30 on the money line.
00:28:43
I think that this is probably one of the more interesting bets of the week.
00:28:47
So look, I think everybody is thinking of themselves.
00:28:51
Oh, yeah, it's time for for the Giants.
00:28:53
They got their first win of the season, man in the words off.
00:28:57
Jesus, Brent Musburger Key.
00:28:59
Jackson, Help! Somebody help me out here.
00:29:01
But not so fast.
00:29:02
My father.
00:29:03
Oh, no, Lee Corso.
00:29:04
Like Corso, you know, when you do these shows solo, you're you're allowed a couple screwups What's asked them? But, you know, looking at this game like there's just a huge fundamental difference on, you know, the Redskins defensive line going against the Giants offensive line.
00:29:19
One matchup.
00:29:21
I'm really looking forward to hear Number two pick Chase Young going head to head against number four pick Andrew Thomas.
00:29:27
Giants fans, you know who remind them of the woods.
00:29:29
They know very well that Thomas has not played up to expectations this season.
00:29:33
Uh, you know, get him in the G m of the Giants.
00:29:36
He had his pick of all these stud offensive linemen.
00:29:39
And by the way, thank you for letting Tristan words drop all the way to the Tampa Bay Bucks.
00:29:43
Neither here nor there.
00:29:44
But, you know, he had his choice of what was a four or five linemen he could have picked.
00:29:49
Uh, not that did not go so well for him there at number four.
00:29:52
So, uh, that's gonna be good, Thomas.
00:29:55
By the way, he is struggling mightily out of 68 tackles in, you know, qualified pass protection.
00:30:02
He ranked 61st out of all their So chase young, you know, hopefully gonna be full strength for this one.
00:30:09
Ready to go with Danny dimes.
00:30:10
And I just think that, you know, a lot of people really aren't looking at the football team.
00:30:15
It's so weird to say.
00:30:16
Still, there they're not.
00:30:18
They're just not looking at this team as a capable team.
00:30:20
And keep in mind looking.
00:30:22
What happened last week, right? With the L.
00:30:24
A.
00:30:25
Rams just absolutely making Alex Smith their their ragdoll out there.
00:30:30
I I feel good.
00:30:31
You know, Kyle Allen is supposed to be back for this one for the football team.
00:30:35
And, you know, I think that they can absolutely, uh, lead, lead the lead, the team there to victory.
00:30:40
So one other aspect I wanna look at here the over 43.
00:30:44
So both teams here rank, uh, last the worst two teams in rushing in the NFL Giants, the one in dead last, and then the Redskins, their next.
00:30:53
Um, look, if if these teams suck it, rushing the football and you know yeah, sure, they do suck it throwing the football, too.
00:31:02
Let's not get that twisted, but there's gonna be a lot of clock stoppages, right? And we know Danny Dimes.
00:31:07
This guy turns the ball over with great regularity.
00:31:10
He's already got five interceptions this season.
00:31:12
Now, first speaking on the over, it's not great to say that he hasn't thrown a touchdown since week one.
00:31:18
However, you know the guy's got legs to he can get it done.
00:31:21
I was actually I was looking at a profit for this game with Danny Jones rushing.
00:31:26
Now you can get it 20.
00:31:28
5 over on William Hill minus 1 20.
00:31:31
I kind of like that number, you know, against the Redskins last season.
00:31:33
He compliant.
00:31:34
He could buy in tow, have Blues 40 I think 45 yards between the two games, their stuff.
00:31:40
He is capable of it.
00:31:41
One of those games, the first one, the one at home.
00:31:44
He rushed for 35 yards in that game.
00:31:46
So that's certainly a profit that we could take a look at this week.
00:31:50
And look, I just think turnovers could certainly be a factor here.
00:31:55
Huge matchup.
00:31:56
Bradbury going up against McLachlan there for for the Redskins.
00:32:00
So this is sort of an opportunity, I think, where you can catch Vegas slipping on this one.
00:32:05
But the one that I really do like more than anything, is certainly going to be the Washington money line there.
00:32:11
And minus 1 37 I'm sorry, plus 1.
00:32:14
30 so I will I'm definitely gonna throw that one in for Sunday.
00:32:18
One game that I wrote about heavily this week to lions at the Jags.
00:32:22
We've got the lion's as 3.
00:32:24
5 point favorite one minus 1 77 on the money line, with the total sitting at 54 a half.
00:32:31
So interesting note that I found here thanks to the action network for this one.
00:32:37
I found it on their website, but road favorites coming off a bye.
00:32:41
Since 2003 they have covered 69% of the games.
00:32:45
They are 62 28 2 in this one.
00:32:47
So again, Matt Patricia again, another guy that really hasn't lived up to expectations but good news form this week, you're gonna have the full complement of weapons there with, you know, Kenny Golladay, who's been absolutely fantastic in these two weeks since coming back to the lineup.
00:33:04
He you know, he missed the first three weeks, but just fantastic outputs against Arizona and New Orleans each those last two games, Uh, Marvin Jones Jr.
00:33:12
Of course, TJ Hawkinson.
00:33:13
You know he's having a pretty decent season.
00:33:17
I mean, I expect them to do a lot better.
00:33:19
But again, When? When you got that many weapons at your disposal.
00:33:22
You know, Matt Stafford kinda gotta pick and choose who was throwing the **** ball, too.
00:33:26
But, um, you know, this is this is a great opportunity for Stafford Thio do some damage.
00:33:32
And again for all your DFS folks out there, you definitely want to take a look at it because, you know Jacksonville, they're allowing the most passing yards per attempt at 8.7.
00:33:41
You know, obviously, league worst pass defense out there.
00:33:44
So when you have so many weapons at your disposal like Stafford does, this is gonna be fairly easy to move the ball.
00:33:51
Uh, kinda again.
00:33:52
Kind of like the over.
00:33:53
You know, we talked about a couple hundreds already, but this is another game where I kind of like the over a 54.5.
00:33:58
We look at that, too, because on one side, we've got the league's worst passing defense.
00:34:03
And on one side, we got the league's worst rushing defense.
00:34:06
So you definitely want to check out usada's dot com again.
00:34:10
I've got James Robinson written up in the running back section.
00:34:13
Great profit.
00:34:14
There on William Hill over 10 1.
00:34:16
5 rushing and receiving.
00:34:19
You know, total yards there again.
00:34:21
Juice. Juice.
00:34:22
Really. Not that bad.
00:34:23
So you could certainly take advantage of that one.
00:34:25
The one reason I will say this with, uh, you know, in regard to the lions doing well in this game Shark, You know, receiver for the jags.
00:34:36
Not going.
00:34:37
Probably not gonna play I again.
00:34:39
I haven't seen update just yet, but a zai saw earlier in the week.
00:34:44
He was quote unquote, very questionable to play in this ****.
00:34:47
So again men's shoes.
00:34:49
Worst game of the season was that we three game at home against Miami on Thursday night, where he did not have chart for that game.
00:34:55
So that is kind of telling, you know, if you know, if he's not gonna have his main weapon out there, obviously you're not gonna bode well for the team.
00:35:02
But in terms of the over and everything that you know I told you about with James Robinson, you know, that just means that we're gonna be able to move the ball a lot more, So I really like you know, Stafford in alliance to kind of get a get a early edge here, you know, with the lead.
00:35:17
Maybe jump out to touch down something like that, and then just have a dump office down James Robinson, get a couple of draws going, things like that.
00:35:25
And look, I think plenty of points are gonna be on the board today, but the one that I feel a lot more confident and is certainly Detroit minus 2 3.
00:35:31
5 with you already know I would buy down to three.
00:35:35
Ah, lot of these.
00:35:36
I hate the hook.
00:35:37
I absolutely hate it.
00:35:38
It's ridiculous.
00:35:40
But that's that's certainly where I'm leaning in that one, uh, Broncos at Patriots this week.
00:35:45
I don't have a lot to say about this game.
00:35:47
Cam Newton and stuff on Gilmore back.
00:35:49
If anything, maybe I go with the under 45.
00:35:52
It's kind of been awkward week for these teams getting down to business.
00:35:55
Obviously, the Patriots and that whole fiasco, uh, you know, trying trying toe avoid all these positive Kobe tests and whatnot.
00:36:03
Uh, Melvin Gordon got a d y during the week, the Broncos running back.
00:36:07
So, you know you don't know how that's gonna fair.
00:36:10
I just think both of these both of these teams right now, we're kind of, you know, football is not the first thing on their mind right now, So I'm not I'm not gonna really touch this game at all DFS or betting wise this week.
00:36:23
But I will tell you that.
00:36:25
You know, if you had a gun to my head right now, I'd probably be taken the under 45.
00:36:30
All right? That'll that'll do it for the one o'clock slate of games before we get into four o'clock Slate and the rest.
00:36:37
Let me tell you about the promo offer.
00:36:39
William Hill.
00:36:40
You check that out, use the promo code ts 500.
00:36:43
That ts for taking sides, folks.
00:36:45
And you get a bonus match deposit of up to $500.
00:36:48
What that means is you can deposit only up to $500.
00:36:52
You get $500 in return and site credit.
00:36:55
Now that I believe the same sort of situation.
00:36:57
If you deposit $250 they'll roll you over with $250 in sight credit there as well.
00:37:04
So, once again, that's William hill dot com.
00:37:07
Using promo code ts 500 for the bonus Max deposit of up to 500 data.
00:37:13
All right, let's get into these four o'clock and real quick, weird, weird scheduling by the NFL.
00:37:19
By the way, they only put 24 o'clock games.
00:37:21
But, you know, I guess they kind of wanted to showcase that Brady Rodgers matchup, which we'll get to next.
00:37:27
But let's get this one out of the way.
00:37:29
First New York Jets in Miami Dolphins.
00:37:32
We got a total of 47 a half year, and we saw the line open up at minus eight for the Miami Dolphins.
00:37:39
That has since shot up to 9.
00:37:41
5, tied for the highest increase of the week for any team.
00:37:44
So this is interesting because the Miami Dolphins are favored in a game for the first time in 21 Try.
00:37:53
Uh, it's also the first time that they're favored by over a touchdown since November of 2016 and it's also worth noting that they haven't won back to back games by double digits since 2015.
00:38:05
So what we have here is just a very opportunity time from the Dolphins to do some ass kicking on the New York Jets.
00:38:11
Now, you know, I've been duped twice by the Jets already this season, Week one against the Bills.
00:38:17
And then, of course, that I think it was Week four matchup on Thursday night against the job against the Broncos.
00:38:22
I will not be duped again here.
00:38:25
Uh, even even in the cove it era, I could see some of these thes Jets players get the Miami flu having them some fun down in South Beach before this game.
00:38:33
But again, these guys just do not wanna win for for Adam Gates right now and again, the roster is going to tell you that it's another start for Joe Flacco.
00:38:41
Uh, you know he's gonna be going in there for Sam.
00:38:43
Donald, I think the Jets kinda, you know, want to protect what they got left of the guy.
00:38:47
Maybe they could using this trade bait or something along those lines.
00:38:50
But by the way, Indianapolis Colts, I would definitely make that call on Sam Donald right there.
00:38:56
Because, you know, we know the Jets of tanking for Trevor at this point.
00:39:00
Are the guy the kid from Ohio State? So yeah, They ain't trying to do nothing big here.
00:39:05
But again, You know, all those numbers that I gave you there from Miami, The fact that there such, you know, huge favorites in this game even, you know, not having all that success historically, uh, you know, it just lends itself toe Ryan Fitzpatrick having a huge day.
00:39:20
I mean, the kid, the kid, the old man, he you know, he's got a fantastic situation here.
00:39:26
You know, Jets pass defense.
00:39:27
Absolutely terrible.
00:39:28
Appear to steer.
00:39:29
You know, we saw this guy get absolutely toasted in that Thursday night game against the, uh, against the Denver Broncos.
00:39:35
And, you know, like, What do you What are we thinking? Like Devante Parker is not gonna do that. Come on.
00:39:41
Uh, this is gonna be a nice, easy win here for the Dolphins.
00:39:44
Now, the one thing I will say there is some hope of optimism for the Jets offense in this game.
00:39:49
Jamison Crowder has got himself a fantastic matchup in this one.
00:39:54
Hate to be a broken record, but again, go to us odds and check out, uh, the article that I posted up there in there.
00:40:00
You will see that his matchup against Nick Need him is one of the best in the biz.
00:40:04
So need him is a second year backup in his career already, And, by the way, this is in limited action on 87 targets.
00:40:12
Over the course of his career, he's allowed 785 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
00:40:18
Folks, this is a backup.
00:40:19
Alright, this isn't even a guy that is playing all the time, But this is the matchup that Crowder is gonna draw this weekend.
00:40:25
And you know when? When we look at what's been going on against Dolphins this season, it's been the slot.
00:40:31
There has been absolutely crushing them.
00:40:32
All five opposing slot receivers, uh, you know, to face the Dolphins this season have seen at least six targets.
00:40:39
So again, Jamison Crowder will absolutely be in my draftkings lineup this week.
00:40:44
Uh, you know, again, this is this is a situation where the jets are all but likely going to be trying to come from behind.
00:40:51
So if you take a look at the prop it there on William Hill, you could get Jamison Crowder over 5.
00:40:57
5 catches there and I believe, minus 1 15.
00:41:01
Is the juice on that? It's not a lot, Um, you know, if I'm wrong, I'll correct myself, but I just I haven't I didn't see huge juice on that one.
00:41:08
It's insane.
00:41:09
You know, when we look at at Crowder stat line this season, let's go.
00:41:13
So he missed two games this season.
00:41:15
He's still crushing it.
00:41:16
Weak one at Buffalo, eight catches on 13 targets for a buck, 16 and a touchdown.
00:41:22
Week four against Denver.
00:41:24
Seven receptions on 10 targets for a buck 04 Week five against Arizona last week.
00:41:29
Eight receptions on 10 targets for a buck 16 and a touchdown.
00:41:33
Insanity folks, Joe Flacco.
00:41:35
You know he's gonna be looking for Crowder all day.
00:41:37
So again, Jets fans.
00:41:40
You don't want to take your team here with the plus 9.
00:41:43
5.
00:41:44
But you could certainly have some fun with Jamison Crowder getting busy in this one.
00:41:48
And don't forget Frank Gore revenge matchup.
00:41:51
They get him a touchdown.
00:41:52
Who knows? I doubt it, but yeah, let's let's just stick with the crowd for now.
00:41:56
All right, folks, for the main event, I can't wait for this one.
00:42:00
This is gonna be fantastic Green Bay Packers at my Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where we got to spread opened at two.
00:42:07
Currently.
00:42:08
Right now we are seeing it, uh, at one point, favorites for the Packers.
00:42:12
Moneyline's gonna be minuscule here.
00:42:15
Ah, you know, you're essentially getting 1 10 on both sides there.
00:42:19
So looking at this one again, another another prop section that I wrote up in this game for us odds.
00:42:26
But, you know, I'm all over these Brady Rodgers profits now, the reason why.
00:42:32
And it's gonna be interesting to note because, you know, my my boys, my books we lost video for the season.
00:42:39
Just a devastating broken leg injury.
00:42:42
Uh, that's a reason why Tampa Bay had the number one rush defense in the NFL for I don't know what last 23 years? Uh, this season they were allowing 2.
00:42:51
7 yards per carry.
00:42:53
The next best team those Pittsburgh Steelers that we talked about earlier, 3.
00:42:57
3 yards per carry.
00:42:58
So obviously a huge gap there between number one and two.
00:43:01
And you know, you just you look at it and on the surface, you know, you look at those numbers, you say all right, This could be a huge day for Erin Jones, but without the aid of a, uh oh, I'm sorry.
00:43:11
It could be a tough day front, Jones, but rushing the football, But with Vita they out.
00:43:15
I'm I'm very interested to see how how that goes.
00:43:18
Obviously, I want my boys to do well, I just I think that that's that's way too big of a Plug Thio to be missing from from your defense.
00:43:26
So I'm gonna change my tune a little bit on what I said earlier in the week and thinking that you know the box, you know, would stop the run and and, you know, really force Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball a lot more.
00:43:38
I think I think the Packers could probably be all right.
00:43:41
Um, you know, running the football, controlling the clock.
00:43:44
You know, looking at the Packers this year, I mean, their offense has been insane.
00:43:47
They the offense has a 93.
00:43:49
3 offensive efficiency rating, which is second best in NFL history through four weeks.
00:43:56
With the 2000 and eight, uh, Rams were actually the, uh, the ones toe have that at the best, So e mean this.
00:44:04
This is kind of what Aaron Rodgers is doing right now.
00:44:07
This year, you know? No, no picks this guy, you know? He's solid, man.
00:44:11
If you take, you take a look at the profit.
00:44:13
I even I threw this in.
00:44:14
There is kind of ah, like a goofy, like Go ahead and do it if you want.
00:44:18
But Aaron Rodgers to throw no interceptions on Sunday is minus 2 20.
00:44:23
Like, you gotta lay that massive to 20 in order to get yourself 100 bucks.
00:44:28
So, you know, this is how this is how efficient the guy's been all season.
00:44:32
Um, you know, in terms of the box, hopefully we could get Chris Godwin back this week. That would be fantastic.
00:44:39
You know, Certainly missed them here the last couple of weeks.
00:44:41
Especially in that game against the Bears.
00:44:43
I mean, you know, having Khalil Mack just absolutely ruined the game plan.
00:44:47
Uh, you know, definitely, definitely was not.
00:44:50
Not in the making there, but 11 thing to know.
00:44:54
And, you know, the sharp betters have already picked up on it, but the over in this one, So we initially saw the total open.
00:45:02
I think 54.
00:45:03
Now we're all the way up to 55 a half.
00:45:05
Don't Don't underestimate the power of time off my friends, because, you know, Green Bay had thereby.
00:45:11
Last week, Brady had three extra days to prepare for this game.
00:45:15
Thes air.
00:45:16
These are two of the best to do it.
00:45:17
My friends, you know, and, you know, believe me, these air not guys that go out there and just slinging around these air methodical sons of *****es out there.
00:45:25
So you give Aaron Rodgers seven extra days to prepare you give Tom Brady three extra days to prepare, they're gonna put points on the scoreboard without a doubt and again to, you know, Yeah, my mind kind of changes a little bit with the aid of a being out, but I just think that you're going to see a lot of passing in this game, you know, to the bus.
00:45:44
Uh, you know, I don't think we're going to see the Packers necessary playing.
00:45:47
Keep away from Tom Brady.
00:45:49
Maybe Brady and the Bucks do that.
00:45:51
But, uh, this is, you know, this is a game where they should have all the weapons back and plenty of time to prepare.
00:45:56
So 55 a half, I don't love it.
00:46:00
I kinda would rather get back down to that 54 range.
00:46:03
But so what? You know, you you go on draftkings and you buy a couple of points, you know, whatever.
00:46:07
Get yourself in a good position to win folks up there, Right? Ronald Jones could be interesting this week.
00:46:12
If wanna fernet Mrs um or is limited in any way for net has missed the last two games, So could it be interesting to see how the bucks kind of rotate him back? But, I mean, Ronald Jones has been doing just fine.
00:46:25
Two straight games with 100 yards rushing.
00:46:27
He's got nine catches on 14 targets, although they didn't go for a lot of yards in those last two weeks.
00:46:32
But again, let's you know, we got we gotta wait and see what the bucks are doing there.
00:46:36
But definitely if you're playing DFS this week, that could be an interesting way to go, especially with a lot of people probably, you know, drifting toward that that narrative of Brady verse Rogers.
00:46:47
Yes.
00:46:48
We need to have some of the pass catchers in the air yards in this game.
00:46:51
But you know Ronald Jones, Erin Jones Jones squared, baby.
00:46:55
That could be a nice where to go in this matchup, so definitely look into that.
00:46:59
All right, so I'm gonna I'm gonna wrap it up here on the show after this game.
00:47:03
Actually, no.
00:47:04
We're gonna get a little bit of baseball at this game, but the Sunday night game with the Rams of the 40 Niners, that's the last football game we're gonna talk about.
00:47:12
I want to try to get back on the air Monday and kind of discuss the NFL doubleheader.
00:47:16
I think we've got some, uh, nice hits going on with that.
00:47:19
So I'm gonna leave those two for that day.
00:47:22
Of course, I'm gonna have profit write ups for those games, too.
00:47:25
So make sure you go to us as again for that, But let's go.
00:47:30
Let's go out to San Francisco because it's an absolute disaster.
00:47:33
It's actually Santa Clara.
00:47:34
But let's you know, let's not get crazy.
00:47:36
Uh, Rams open history and a half point favorites there now, three point favorites.
00:47:42
We got the money line sitting at minus 1 75 for them.
00:47:45
Niners by the way, plus 1 50 on the money line as well.
00:47:49
What the hell is going on with the 40 Niners? I mean, yeah.
00:47:53
Go ahead, say injuries, injuries, air.
00:47:55
Absolutely huge part.
00:47:56
You miss a guy like both.
00:47:57
Of course, it's gonna hurt your bottom line D for not there, but they got enough capable guys.
00:48:04
They got capable guys that could beat the Eagles at home.
00:48:07
That could, I don't know.
00:48:09
They could be incapable guys.
00:48:12
That could be the Dolphins at home over in three.
00:48:15
So far, against the spread and straight up three.
00:48:18
Only two wins coming at MetLife Stadium for that back to back East Coast trip there for the Jets and the Giants.
00:48:23
But, well, this is an absolute disaster.
00:48:26
I told you guys earlier in the week that I really like the over in this game, and not much has changed in that regard.
00:48:32
Um, I I just I don't have any faith in this Niners defense right now.
00:48:38
Jared Goff has been an absolute gorgeous ******* this year.
00:48:43
70% completion rate in three straight road games for the man.
00:48:48
But if you were wondering if there's a franchise record, no Kurt Warner did it 55 straight times on the road before.
00:48:54
But, you know, you look at what's going on right now with the Rams.
00:48:58
They're gonna be able to run the football against the 40 Niners on when they're able to run the football.
00:49:02
They are absolutely the best at play action passes.
00:49:06
So again, if this Niners team isn't gonna get any pressure on on Jared Goff Goodnight, senorita.
00:49:14
And then on the other side, you look at it to the Rams.
00:49:16
Tied for the most sacks in the NFL right now with 20.
00:49:19
Meanwhile, the the 40 Niners offensive one is struggling quite a bit.
00:49:24
They've all had 18 sacks, which is tied for fourth most in the NFL.
00:49:27
Not a good matchup right there, right? Aaron? Donald? Yeah, Just hey, had an unbeliever.
00:49:33
He was ridiculous last week against the Redskins.
00:49:36
And you know, Paul and I were talking about that is like, yeah, but it was It was against the Redskins, and that was we're still human bodies that he just went straight through last week.
00:49:44
So I'm really looking forward to see what he does against the 40 Niners.
00:49:47
But in saying that you know, because I did say that I like tea over in this game.
00:49:52
I think that we could certainly look at some more turnovers.
00:49:55
Look at what happened last week against the Miami Dolphins.
00:49:58
You know, like granted it was Jimmy G in the lineup and, you know, you know, we might see a change.
00:50:03
Kyle Shanahan did say that he wanted Thio, you know, see how Grapples Ankle was doing there in game situations.
00:50:09
But I just think that this is one that the Rams going away within a very high scoring game for the last five Rams Niners game have totaled 49 or more points.
00:50:19
So that is certainly, uh that's certainly something that we gotta take into a camp, But yeah, I'm going.
00:50:25
I'm going rams and over in this one, Uh, not not really changing my mind on that.
00:50:31
All right, so we'll cap it off there with the football.
00:50:35
As I said, I'll try to get a Monday, show him on break down these two Monday games because they're absolutely fantastic.
00:50:42
There's nothing else you wanna be watching on TV, but we gotta end with some baseball and oh my God, the Dodgersbullpen last night.
00:50:51
Like, if if you absolutely trying to give me a **** aneurism last night.
00:50:58
So I had the under nine in that game.
00:51:00
The line opened it 9.
00:51:01
5 went all the way down to 8.
00:51:02
5, I I got it.
00:51:04
Luckily, on one of the sites where it was still kind of lingering around there at nine.
00:51:09
11 game going into the bottom of the sixth.
00:51:12
And then we get a little bit of playoff. Kershaw.
00:51:15
They didn't leave.
00:51:16
Dave Roberts didn't leave them in too long there.
00:51:18
But, um, you know, this is, uh yeah, this is where the dodgersbullpen certainly faltered in that one.
00:51:26
Uh, you know, ended up being E.
00:51:28
I forgot the **** final score of the game, but it was not good.
00:51:31
Tended to Sorry.
00:51:33
Uh, so again, Braves going, You know, we got to elimination games here today.
00:51:39
Once again, we're two teams could wind up getting themselves into the world.
00:51:44
Siri's, by the way.
00:51:45
As you know, I'm a Phillies fan.
00:51:47
My **** teams air all over the map.
00:51:50
I moved around so much as a kid, but if I see the Houston Astros, Atlanta world.
00:51:54
Syria.
00:51:55
I don't even know what I'm gonna do to myself.
00:51:56
Like as a Philly fan.
00:51:58
You know, obviously the Braves, they just irk me to death.
00:52:01
But as a human being, it's the Astros that irked me to death.
00:52:05
So I certainly will not be loving that.
00:52:09
Of course, I'm gonna watch the games because I'm probably gonna bet on them.
00:52:12
But it's a look.
00:52:13
If I watch the game, it doesn't mean I have to like it. Right.
00:52:16
So the first game today on the MLB docket, we have got the the Astros and the Rays.
00:52:23
Interesting to note here already the So the total is opened at eight.
00:52:27
Meanwhile, both team totals have dipped down a lot.
00:52:30
Now, if you know me from my writings with baseball, uh, I'll let the cat out of bed go to fantasy labs dot com.
00:52:38
They have the Vegas tab on there, and you can kind of see well, the different movements, whether it's money line totals, team totals, things like that.
00:52:46
It's enormously helpful to betting baseball, and again it's free.
00:52:50
That's the best part.
00:52:51
So I would I would obviously use that.
00:52:53
But when you look at these numbers.
00:52:55
You see both team totals dipping down below.
00:52:58
Now when both team totals dip.
00:53:00
Obviously, that's a good sign for the under.
00:53:02
When you see those team totals dip, you usually see the game total dip.
00:53:06
That hasn't happened yet.
00:53:07
So if you could still get this Astros rays game in, uh, under eight, I would certainly love to take that.
00:53:14
You know, again, I know everybody is, like, terrified of taking unders.
00:53:19
Uh, in this new covert era that we live in, It's like defense almost just doesn't exist anymore.
00:53:24
But luckily, Tampa Bay Rays.
00:53:27
We know that they play some of the best, if not the best baseball on defense.
00:53:30
Um, you know, we're gonna have a lovely pitching match up here in the Rays favor here today to, um, for the Astros.
00:53:39
It's gonna be free number of all days going up against Blake Snell.
00:53:42
Look, Snell, you know, he could have a hard time against this Astros lineup, but again, these are guys that could also strike out a ton.
00:53:48
Um, you know, with Snell on the mound, I don't even expect smell to go that deep into the game.
00:53:54
I think it probably get himself five innings and then turn it over to the bullpen.
00:53:57
But, you know, when you when you also to When you look at this game, it's, you know, the razor two games away from doing a 2004 Yankees where you know where they blow the three, nothing lead there.
00:54:11
So I think the Rays kinda clamp it down.
00:54:14
Today they get themselves back, back, focused and and end up winning this game.
00:54:19
But again, I'm really liking the the under eight there from Sam, what with those numbers there, uh, in the other game.
00:54:27
Interesting to note, Dodgers once again have that huge team total that we saw in game three.
00:54:34
I don't know if you guys remember, but we talked about it.
00:54:37
You know, the Dodgers had a a total that was about a run and a half mawr than any other team on the slate there.
00:54:46
So when we look at it today, I mean, you know, the closest team in total runs is to raise at four.
00:54:53
So there are over a brother and a half, you know, better in terms of the team total there.
00:54:58
That's usually a good sign.
00:55:00
I would not mind taking a shot here on the Dodgers run run and a half one.
00:55:05
When looking at that at that Siri's line yesterday, I found it baffling that the Dodgers were still minus 1 10.
00:55:15
Thio.
00:55:16
Take that, You know, to take the Siri's looking at them right now.
00:55:20
Plus there, plus 3 30 to win the Siri's, which is interesting, you know, considering the Astros or plus 3 60 to win their Siri's.
00:55:28
The Rays minus 500 the highest of any team to win their Siri's still, too.
00:55:32
So again, that bodes well for both sides there today.
00:55:35
But again, with the with the Dodgers having that 5.
00:55:37
7 run total.
00:55:39
I mean, how could you not love that right there? Uh, the Braves, as if I'm not mistaking they still haven't decided on the starter in the skin yet, either.
00:55:47
So that means probably a bullpen game.
00:55:49
And again, I am, uh, I'm pretty confident in the Dodgers and this one taking a look at the run line.
00:55:56
They don't even have a run line net, so just just keep an eye out for that.
00:56:00
But But right now, for the time being, get that under eight in for the Astros and the Rays game.
00:56:07
Oh, that'll do it for the show today.
00:56:09
Folks had a lot of fun speaking to everybody by myself.
00:56:13
It's a pig daunting task when you do this by yourself.
00:56:17
So hopefully you guys enjoyed the show there.
00:56:19
And, by the way, I'll give out both the promo codes once again.
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00:56:48
So once again, deposit 500 bucks, get 500 bucks back inside credit.
00:56:53
Also, don't forget to follow us the show on Twitter at taking underscore sides.
00:56:59
You follow Paul at game day facts, and you follow myself at 14 aids at walls for May Paul.
00:57:05
US size the rest of the universe.
00:57:08
Folks have a great weekend.
00:57:09
Hopefully we see on Monday.
00:57:11
Uh,
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Taking Sides w/ Al Walsh & Pauly Parlays @Taking_Sides

Transcript hideup

00:00:22
good Friday, everybody.
00:00:23
This is taking sides show, and I'm the host Hal Walsh were brought to you by us.
00:00:28
Odd dot com Make sure you go to us dash shots, check out all the great videos that in content that we got out there this week for all the different NFL games, of course.
00:00:40
Got some MLB going on this week, too.
00:00:43
So definitely gonna be a great show.
00:00:44
I will be doing this one solo because no holy parlays today, but that's the right.
00:00:50
The band must go on a Z intended so really looking forward to this one today.
00:00:56
Tons of NFL this week.
00:00:58
Obviously, the big news coming out of Kansas City is That's where Levian Bell will be taking his brand new act all the way out to Arrowhead Stadium on, you know, sort of a ring chasing situation right there.
00:01:12
So, you know, you look at what Andy Reid's been able to do in the past with pass catching running backs, and this is just absolutely, uh, stuff.
00:01:21
Fantastic move.
00:01:22
On the Wednesday show, Paul and I, we discussed this and possible landing spots and where he could possibly go.
00:01:29
Kansas City, I believe was probably the the third or fourth probably most likely destination for for ballot this point.
00:01:38
Uh, you know, and this is just a wealth of riches.
00:01:44
Now for the Kansas City Chiefs, you talk about a team that already has Tyreek Hill.
00:01:49
Travis, Kelsey, you know, now you add, obviously, Clyde Edwards Hilaire there in the draft, and now we're putting love John Bell.
00:01:59
I had a buddy of mine shout out to Danny ***ton.
00:02:02
What's up there? Uh, and he kind of had a question today about, you know, what do I do with this guy and fantasy Can Can I get a trade for him now? You know, maybe a little well, asking too much.
00:02:15
He was trying to go for Zeke Elliot right there.
00:02:17
But this is sort of a situation now where it'll be like the Cleveland backfield, where you're gonna have Kareem Hunt.
00:02:24
You know, I should say the Cleveland backfield when you had Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
00:02:29
But, you know, I think that both of these guys were gonna be very productive once that time comes Now it is worth noting, of course, that you know, Levian bells.
00:02:40
I think the earliest the earliest that he can join the team is Wednesday, and that's gonna be a chooser.
00:02:48
Uh, you know, they're gonna be taking on the bills this week.
00:02:51
And, you know, obviously you'd love tohave bell in the line up there, but you know, not the case.
00:02:57
New NFL rules have habit is where you have.
00:03:01
If you're switching teams, you need to perform five Negative Cove. It test.
00:03:07
So that alone right there is You know, I don't think it's gonna be hard for Bell to do that, But, you know, when we talk about you know what it means to the team? Yeah, of course.
00:03:17
The Chiefs, they're gonna be souped up that they got love Ian Bell coming in the mix.
00:03:21
But you wonder, will that be a distraction going into the Monday late afternoon game against the Buffalo Bills? Which, you know, we could probably bring up a little later.
00:03:30
But, uh, this is this is just a great situation here for the Kansas City Chiefs.
00:03:35
And I'm very excited, You know that that love Bell's gonna gonna have a great chance here to do some some ring chasing.
00:03:42
So, uh, you know, definitely definitely kicks off what it intends to be a great week.
00:03:48
Six of the NFL season, By the way, since I'm here solo tryingto share everything I'm doing at the beginning for us to do the ad read.
00:03:56
But make sure you guys go to bet 3 65 use the promo code US odds 100 for 100% deposit.
00:04:02
Match that right there.
00:04:05
Bet 3 65.
00:04:07
Also stay tuned.
00:04:08
We got some or offers later coming up in the show.
00:04:10
So you definitely want to take advantage of these A.
00:04:14
Z always.
00:04:15
You know, check on the bottom There.
00:04:16
You can follow us on Twitter at taking underscore sides on.
00:04:19
You can follow me as well at 14 a dot Walsh.
00:04:22
Alright, so you know, I intended Thio just go kind of game by game breakdown.
00:04:28
What's most important here, and that's exactly what we're gonna dio.
00:04:31
However, the order got switched up a little bit because as of Friday morning, there was, ah, huge outbreak there at the Indianapolis Colts facility.
00:04:42
And you know now this week's game is certainly in question against the Cincinnati Bengals.
00:04:47
Now, you know, as we know in the owner Jim Marks a kind of, ah, loose cannon where he thinks that this game is is gonna be, uh, go on as scheduled.
00:04:59
And I just I have no idea how that's gonna happen.
00:05:01
Uh, you know, especially this close toe game day on Sunday.
00:05:05
And this isn't just a couple, you know, pause that they doug believe Rotoworld claimed it as a, uh, as more of a an outbreak, if you will.
00:05:15
So, yeah, it's upsetting because there were actually two plays that I really liked a lot in this game.
00:05:20
And, you know, look, we're going to start with this game anyway.
00:05:23
Hopefully, uh, you know, the game goes on a schedule because I really think that these air to great money making opportunities here and, you know, that's kind of where I'm at looking at this game.
00:05:35
Of course, I'm absolutely loving the Colts in this matchup.
00:05:39
You know, we take a look at the line play in this.
00:05:42
I don't know how Cincinnati would be able to handle, uh, the Indianapolis defensive line.
00:05:48
Uh, you know, we don't know exactly who was tested positive yet, but of course, if any of those guys were out, then it's gonna be a tough situation, but indeed, this whole season has just really struggled toe get big plays.
00:05:59
I know in that that Thursday night game in week two against the Browns, they were able to to move the ball well, but that's just that.
00:06:06
That's kind of their style.
00:06:07
And that's how they roll in that regard.
00:06:09
So I'm you know, I have no confidence here.
00:06:12
I know.
00:06:13
Indianapolis kind of got shredded up last week by the Browns, but this is a spot where the Bangles we're certainly going to struggle.
00:06:20
It pains me to say that as a Joe Mixon fantasy owner, but, uh, you know, obviously we're trying to win money here in one week where I'm sorry.
00:06:28
Well, yeah, we tryto anybody what we hear.
00:06:31
And, you know, we don't worry about that that fantasy stuff in that regard.
00:06:34
So I know that the culture eight point favorites in this game to me I think they're gonna absolutely run away with this one.
00:06:41
Uh, not even gonna be closer against the Bangles.
00:06:44
But the place that I really like is the under.
00:06:46
And to get into this, of course, it all starts with Philip Rivers because You know, I've said this a million times.
00:06:52
This guy just cannot throw the football anymore.
00:06:54
It's embarrassing, but he's that he's even still out on the field.
00:06:57
Guys got so many **** kids, it should be home taking care of them.
00:07:00
But you know him playing out there is not any good, right? And you know, if we know anything about Cincinnati, you can run the football against these guys.
00:07:08
Uh, you know, and I just It's not going.
00:07:12
It hasn't been going as well for Indianapolis this season.
00:07:15
Jonathan Taylor.
00:07:16
You know, taking over the Bell Cal role in terms of rushing the football.
00:07:20
Now you know Heinz in there a little bit with receiving out of the backfield.
00:07:26
But this is just not in India offense that is designed to make big plays down the field.
00:07:30
So when we look at the total here, it 46 I would absolutely love maybe by that Apple point Goto, 47.
00:07:36
But you know, it's funny.
00:07:38
I know nobody wants to take.
00:07:40
Nobody wants to take any of these unders on NFL games right now, but this is absolutely the one that you need to be doing it Uh and yeah, you know, if this game does go on, I mean, I I absolutely see no way that it happens on Sunday.
00:07:54
Hopefully, they were able to move it toe Monday or Tuesday, You know, kind of what they did with the Bills Titans game this week and so many others throughout the season.
00:08:02
Uh, this is this is really a **** good spot for both, you know, the Colts and the under in this one.
00:08:09
I know if some of your books out there take that action on those reverses where you could put both on there.
00:08:14
That's certainly something that I'm loving.
00:08:16
And, uh, yeah, that's that's going to be the number one play of the week, assuming that this game goes down.
00:08:23
So once again, colts minus eight with the under, uh, 46 hopefully 47.
00:08:29
If we can get it there.
00:08:30
All right, now, I'm done sharing toe all the different outlets.
00:08:34
Now, you guys got my undivided attention here.
00:08:37
Of course, you know we'll break down that first game where everybody have to be played, But now we are ready to go, folks.
00:08:43
The Cleveland Browns of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:08:46
It is an interesting one here because, you know, we we see this open up a 3.
00:08:51
5.
00:08:52
We saw it go.
00:08:53
And now I'm sorry.
00:08:54
3.
00:08:55
5 in favor of the Steelers, and we saw it go down to three.
00:08:56
Now, on Wednesday's show, I did say, You know, let's let's wait on some of these games And luckily, this is one that actually went in the favor.
00:09:04
Some of the other ones I was talking about were weren't so kind to us, but here I really like the Cleveland Browns A to 3.5.
00:09:11
This is Paul and eyes, uh, take Assad pick of the week.
00:09:15
And you know, now that we're getting it at four.
00:09:18
I mean, how could you not love that now, A couple factors at play here, of course.
00:09:22
Uh, Pittsburgh is getting 83% of the money.
00:09:25
While you know, we're seeing the bets that a 50 50 that's typically not a good a good sign.
00:09:31
But, you know, I'm in NFL this season.
00:09:34
These numbers have been, uh, they haven't been that telling as they are, and you know, whether you're betting basketball or baseball or something like that.
00:09:42
But, um, again, one of the things that I heard today I didn't even think about it.
00:09:46
But this is gonna be the first time that Myles Garrett is facing the Pittsburgh Steelers Since the infamous you know, helmet, uh, you know, over over the head thing with Mason Rudolph.
00:09:55
And, uh, you know, a lot of a lot of claims were made there by by Myles Garrett.
00:10:00
And, you know, some people will say, You know what? You waited so **** long to come out with this Obviously, uh, claiming that Rudolph called them.
00:10:09
Ah, no, no word that we never talk about.
00:10:11
And, you know, like, if that was the case, why why wouldn't you come out with it sooner? So a lot of people are kind of, you know, calling calling bluff here on Garrett with that, but nevertheless, I mean, this man, he got himself a hefty contract in the off season.
00:10:26
This is a game that he certainly wants toe, you know, make his presence known. Obviously.
00:10:30
So that's a nice port.
00:10:32
That's a nice part. So look at this one.
00:10:34
Uh, you know, as we talked about on Wednesday, both of these teams you know you're not going to run the football against them, That it's just it hasn't happened.
00:10:42
Miles Sanders broke a huge play last week on sort of an all out blitz play from the Steelers.
00:10:48
And you know that attributed Thio huge yardage day from them.
00:10:51
But typically, this is not, you know, the team that you do that again.
00:10:54
So, um, if you take a look on us dash odds dot com and you could see on the bottom of the screen Um, you know, I put its, um, profits up for quarterbacks this week, and you know, I've got both Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield for over over on the touchdown number.
00:11:11
Now Ben Roethlisberger does have ah, 1.
00:11:14
5 number in this game with a very exotic minus 1 70 on the juice.
00:11:20
So that kind of sucks.
00:11:21
But I will say that this is definitely the game that you take a chance like that.
00:11:25
Uh, Now, on the other hand, with Baker Mayfield, I was looking at the odds on William Hill.
00:11:30
They didn't have those up for Baker just yet, but again, he's thrown two touchdowns in the last four games, so This is certainly a definitely a good spot for him. Siegel.
00:11:40
Thank you very much for the donation right there.
00:11:43
That will certainly go into the good good funds.
00:11:45
So definitely, definitely looking forward to spending somebody on that at the end of the season.
00:11:49
But yeah.
00:11:51
I mean, look, Brown's plus four.
00:11:52
This is the This is the time that you make the move on that don't even wait for this opportunity to go back down to 3 to 3.
00:11:59
5 or three. Whatever.
00:12:01
You get four right there.
00:12:02
Pretty good number. Andi.
00:12:04
Look, I don't know if money lines the way to go.
00:12:06
One of the highest bets this week, that is that is gaining a lot of traction in terms of money coming in.
00:12:12
That is the Steelers money line.
00:12:14
And, you know, and Paul talked about it on Wednesday to that's that's the play that he actually likes in that game.
00:12:19
But for the battle or for the sense of taking aside, you know, we we are on opposite sides.
00:12:26
That, of course, with me on the brands of him on the Steelers, uh, again, you wanna go with the Steelers? I think money line is certainly the way to go in this one.
00:12:34
Another game out here that that is getting comes. Attraction.
00:12:37
Ah, lot of money pouring in on this team is gonna be the Chicago Bears Carolina Panthers.
00:12:42
We saw this open up as the Panthers favored by 2.
00:12:45
5, and now it's all the way down to one in favor of Carolina.
00:12:49
Moneyline changed quite drastically to Bears.
00:12:52
Went from plus 1 25 to even money.
00:12:54
Panthers from minus 1 41 toe minus 1 14.
00:12:58
So very interesting thing to note in this one.
00:13:01
When the lines came out earlier in the season, the Bears were actually 2.
00:13:04
5 point favorites right now, this before any games were played in the NFL this season.
00:13:08
But has enough really changed in this in this matchup? To say, you know, the Panthers are worthy of being favored by 2.
00:13:16
5? I certainly don't think so.
00:13:18
The Sharps out there certainly don't think so.
00:13:21
You know, with this line moving all the way down a one right now, so I'm not.
00:13:25
This is not a thing.
00:13:26
I'm falling into some trap or anything like that.
00:13:29
the fact, you know, and I talked about this lot to when you're the home team and you're not getting at least three points in that game.
00:13:36
Uh, I'm sorry or you're not giving three points in that situation.
00:13:41
That is a recipe for disaster in my eyes.
00:13:44
And a lot of people already snuffed this one out.
00:13:46
A zai mentioned 79%.
00:13:49
Let's just call it 4/5 for good measure.
00:13:51
4/5 of the money is going out there to Chicago Bears.
00:13:55
While the bets are right around 50 50.
00:13:57
I can't.
00:14:00
There's no way I can conceivably think about taking the Panthers, and this one couple notes that we should absolutely take advantage of again.
00:14:08
I wrote up.
00:14:09
So this week on us odds, I wrote up profits for, um, for the quarterback position, the, um, the running back position and wide receivers.
00:14:21
So ah, lot of a lot of bears love in that one.
00:14:24
Of course, I've got David Montgomery and Alan Robinson both as guys that could hit overs on a couple of profits there, so I would definitely take a look there.
00:14:34
Uh, you know, Carolina is allowing the second most rushing yards per carry.
00:14:41
This season.
00:14:42
They are at five, almost 5.
00:14:44
5.
00:14:45
Here, you take a look at the defensive line and what they're doing against the past.
00:14:48
Not much.
00:14:49
They only have five sacks this season.
00:14:50
In five games.
00:14:51
They're 13.5%.
00:14:53
Pressure rate is second worst in the NFL this season, and so is the five sacks that they got to kind of go hand in hand there.
00:15:00
So you know this is gonna give Nick Nick Foles plenty of time to throw the football.
00:15:05
They could get the running game going with David Montgomery, who's kind of like God's.
00:15:09
He's kind of been a disappointment this season.
00:15:11
Now that Tariq Owens out of the mix, we're starting to see him get more targets.
00:15:15
So you fantasy owners or certainly loving that, and you know, part of the reason I guess Montgomery's numbers look even worse than they do.
00:15:22
You take a look at their last two opponents they faced.
00:15:25
Indianapolis Colts were as a team.
00:15:27
They were only gaining yard and a half per carry against the Bucks on Thursday night last week.
00:15:32
They're only getting 2.
00:15:33
5 yards per carry against all other teams, they're getting almost five yards per carry.
00:15:37
So again, this is just a fantastic matchup for David Montgomery, all your fantasy owners or your profit owners or you bears.
00:15:43
Ah, betters better favors, whatever.
00:15:46
Uh, this is certainly the game to take advantage job.
00:15:49
And let's keep in mind to bears.
00:15:50
They got the three extra days of preparation going into this game.
00:15:53
So I'm absolutely love in Chicago here, and this is going to be a nice, easy victory for them on the road.
00:15:59
So no Mazz.
00:16:01
All right, let's go to be Atlanta Minnesota game.
00:16:06
Little, little, uh, titling on myself here When I actually wrote the Prophet articles earlier, I actually thought Atlanta was the home team in this game.
00:16:14
But luckily we got that fixed.
00:16:16
Nobody called it out, and we will be playing this one in Minnesota.
00:16:19
So, uh, well, obviously you know the first and foremost thing here, this will be the first game of the post.
00:16:26
Dan Quinn era Atlanta making the move.
00:16:28
They even got rid of their g m. Thomas Dimitroff.
00:16:31
So, uh, you know, typically, we've seen this in years previous, where a team fires a coach you know, early late, whatever in this season, and that team comes out firing on all cylinders.
00:16:43
I just don't have that sort of feeling right now for the Atlanta Falcons.
00:16:47
You know, we saw the Vikings play very well on Sunday night football in Seattle.
00:16:51
**** near came away with that money line victory would have been for May would have been, you know, great.
00:16:57
Uh, you know, since I I remember that was the game where I took the Vikings plus 8.
00:17:01
5, and I even took him on the money.
00:17:03
Lana's Well, so you know, I I made a little bit of a profit there, but not as much as I really would have loved Thio.
00:17:09
Uh, this, You know, every time we talk about the falcons, we got to talk about the running backs that air, that air going against him.
00:17:16
So But also, I completely forgot to mention, But, you know, I believe it was the Falcons that had some positive tests, but Cove, in going into the week Friday was a clean slate, no positive tests or anything like that.
00:17:30
So, again, this game should be played on Sunday as scheduled.
00:17:34
If not.
00:17:35
I would expect this one to at least be a Monday, if absolutely necessary Tuesday.
00:17:39
But I do think that this one will get in.
00:17:41
Unlike the cold scheme.
00:17:43
I think that's, uh, that's kind of a that's gonna be awash there.
00:17:46
So, um, in in, in looking at this match up again, running backs against the Falcons are straight up money in the bank.
00:17:54
When we look at, you know which aspect, of course, toe.
00:17:58
Go in here.
00:17:59
It's obviously the received in part, right? So when we look at this in total this season, now keep in mind.
00:18:06
This is five games and five different running backs have done somewhat significant damage to them.
00:18:11
Tariq Owen was really the one leg behind in Week three.
00:18:16
He only had three receptions on six targets for 20 yards.
00:18:19
But looking at as a whole, uh, this season running backs against the Falcons, 37 receptions on 42 targets for 323 yards and four touchdowns.
00:18:31
Reason why this happened so much.
00:18:33
The Falcons.
00:18:34
They love to play this sort of umbrella like defense, where they'll essentially put all their guys maybe 5, 10 yards.
00:18:42
You know towards the first down marker, as opposed to right there at the line of scrimmage.
00:18:46
So you know it allows thes teams toe, have short passes and gain gain yardage on Atlanta.
00:18:52
That way, this is a team that also really sucks against the tight end.
00:18:56
So it could be a nice day for urge Smith Naval Kyle Rudolph in the mix.
00:19:00
But, you know, I just think in general, since the Vikings are at home, you know, they they haven't really played that well this season.
00:19:07
Everybody kind of, you know, hiked them up coming into the season.
00:19:10
But let's be honest, that a lot of injuries, just a lot of a lot of guys put in positions that really weren't ready.
00:19:16
I'm really shocked at how Adam Dealings been playing on offense.
00:19:19
I thought he was heading towards the back nine of his career, but he's really stepped it up earlier this season.
00:19:24
Him and Justin Jefferson both have some fantastic matchups as well This weekend, Uh, great number I saw on Jefferson.
00:19:32
Eight receptions on 10 deep targets already.
00:19:34
Now he's only had a max of five targets in a game this season, so I would start as a Justin Jefferson fantasy owner, driver of the Justin Jefferson bus.
00:19:46
You know, I I need to see more production out of my man, but I think that this could definitely be a week to do so.
00:19:51
Um, you know another interesting note here to every single quarterback toe to face.
00:19:57
Well, I should say four of the five star four of the five starting quarterbacks to face the Atlanta Falcons this season have all thrown for over 300 yards.
00:20:06
And the only team that didn't do it was Chicago Bears.
00:20:10
Now here's where it gets interesting.
00:20:13
So Travis Key starts that game.
00:20:14
I believe he went for like, 1 30 through the air before getting replaced by Nick Foles, who made that miraculously come back against the Falcons, You know, so he throws for, I think, 1 80 in that game.
00:20:25
But, you know, all in all, the two of them combined to throw for over 300 yards.
00:20:30
So what we can say in that matchup is that you know all five teams to face the Atlanta Falcons this season have thrown for over 300 yards.
00:20:38
You could also check that out on us out dot com and the quarterback section.
00:20:42
I rode up a nice little blurb there for Kirk cousins to get over 300 yards passing this week.
00:20:47
And, you know, you're only getting minus 1 15 on the juice through William Hills.
00:20:51
That is certainly, uh I'm sorry.
00:20:53
I believe the proper there is that to 87 a half.
00:20:56
So, you know, you don't even have to get the full 300.
00:20:58
But again, this is just, you know, speaking of what kind of a matchup this is for the Vikings offense against the Falcons.
00:21:04
Needless to say, folks, I absolutely love the Vikings in this game.
00:21:09
They are minus four currently, but you know, you want to get a little razzle dazzle, Lee, and kind of, you know, bring this down to a field goal.
00:21:17
I certainly would not falter there, um, you know, and again to I kind of like the over in this one.
00:21:23
You know, when we look at everything that goes into this game, you know, less preparation, maybe from the falcons with, uh, you know, just, you know, being being weary that they might not get the game in due to Cove it.
00:21:36
You also look at, you know, maybe we get some trick plays with, you know, new coaching going on for the Falcons.
00:21:42
Like again? This is kind of what I'm talking about.
00:21:44
When you get a new coach in there, they wanna bring some new life into the office, just to the team in general.
00:21:49
So, uh, you know, I think that, you know, the optimism is definitely lending itself to the over in this game.
00:21:54
It sits at 54 a half, but again, you know, may you know, Paul, we like toe diddle with the numbers and get him or into our favor.
00:22:01
So, uh, especially what Paulie doing parlays.
00:22:04
You know that That's absolutely the right way to go with that.
00:22:07
So, uh, definitely take a look into this game.
00:22:09
And, of course, all the prospects for the Minnesota Vikings players on us.
00:22:14
Uh, dash well us dash dot dot com.
00:22:19
All right. First water breaking the deck.
00:22:21
So next game we're going to we're going to Philly.
00:22:24
And, of course, I had to rep the buoy baysox had today.
00:22:28
No, it's not for the Baltimore Ravens, but it's ah, little odes.
00:22:32
My mad Adam Wagner out there.
00:22:34
By the way, You catch me on his show this Sunday, 11. 30 Eastern.
00:22:38
I'll post all the stuff on my Twitter.
00:22:40
I ain't going through all the stuff right now, but break down some of the best NFL bets throughout the week.
00:22:45
Uh, you know Z is in there too.
00:22:47
Just great guys over there at the wagon wire.
00:22:49
So definitely make sure you check them out.
00:22:51
And who on this Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles game, Uh, spread open at 7.
00:22:57
7.
00:22:58
5.
00:22:59
Some places were all the way up to eight right now.
00:23:00
And I think a lot of people are starting to see what I'm seeing on that.
00:23:03
This could be very well be a huge day for Lamar Jackson.
00:23:06
So, uh, we've talked about this a lot on this show before, But, you know, typically teams don't want to run at the Philadelphia Eagles.
00:23:13
They're usually very good at stopping.
00:23:14
The run has been the case.
00:23:16
This is not that they're terrible, but, you know, they're sort of right around league average.
00:23:20
However, instead of, you know, running the football here, there are plenty of guys that that could get some touches today.
00:23:28
Now, when I mean that, we mean, of course, marquees Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews, now Baltimore In terms of their targets, they really don't spread it out a lot.
00:23:38
They really don't, you know.
00:23:39
And this could very well be a tough matchup for Marqise Brown.
00:23:43
Uh, you know, going there with very Slaten, their dairy sleigh.
00:23:46
But, you know, this is this good, very well be huge game for Andrews, looking at tight ends against Eagles this season, they have a total of 323 yards and five touchdowns in those five matchup.
00:23:57
So again, I think that this could be a day where you know, I didn't write him up this week for the profits, but you know, Lamar Jackson could definitely get off on some runs this week.
00:24:07
You know, again, when we talk about running the football against Philly, we're talking in the traditional sense of up the middle and, you know, through the tackles and whatnot are through the guards and whatnot.
00:24:16
But, you know, I look Lamar is second best quarterback to patch from homes in this league.
00:24:22
Ah, he's definitely going to get off on his with with the numbers this week on, you know, furthermore, Baltimore Russian for 5.
00:24:29
6 yards per carry that is best in the NFL.
00:24:32
So again, you know, this is typically a D that you don't want to run against.
00:24:37
But again, if we start getting some of those nice Lamar Jackson runs, that's gonna open it up for the play action.
00:24:42
And again you d efs, folks, If I don't see Mark Andrews in your lineup this week, I'm no, I'm coming to your house and I'm putting them in for you, grabbing your **** cell phone and putting them in myself.
00:24:52
But, yeah, obviously, that one.
00:24:54
You know, we're not getting not getting too crazy on that one.
00:24:58
Baltimore minus the eight.
00:25:00
Not a bad bet.
00:25:01
I, you know, if you want to throw Baltimore money line a couple parlays.
00:25:04
I think that's probably the way to go as well.
00:25:05
All right, Next game on the jacket.
00:25:08
We got the Houston Texans at the Tennessee Titans, and I think it's going to surprise a lot of people to know that I love the Texans in this matchup.
00:25:14
Now, one thing that we've got to keep in mind Tennessee.
00:25:17
They had the short week coming into this game.
00:25:20
So that is, uh, you know, the Tuesday game that they played there and again when looking at it.
00:25:26
They're three and 11 straight up on short week game since 2000 and 13 again Texans, they had their best performance of the season.
00:25:34
Uh, in in week five against Jacksonville.
00:25:37
Uh, you know, when we learned to Shawn Watson, I think you know a lot of us coming into the season.
00:25:41
We said, How is he going to get this done without D hop? I don't know how he's doing the folks, I mean, obviously spreading the ball around a lot more, But he's still on pace for career highs and yours and touchdowns.
00:25:51
Uh, you know, the, you know, Bill O'Brien out of the mix there now in Houston.
00:25:56
I'm sure that's only gonna do good things for him and the rest of the team as well.
00:26:00
So, uh, this is definitely a matchup that I want to take a look at.
00:26:04
And yeah, I was just talking about Mark and Jews as a nice DFS play this week.
00:26:08
Well, let's take a look at the Shawn Watson because he could actually, you know, really help you out in terms of low ownership in great production.
00:26:15
In 15 road games as an underdog throughout his career, DeShaun Watson is averaging just under 24 draftkings points.
00:26:23
It would also help you to know that he's got five games of over 30 draftkings points in that span is Well, uh, if you thought my Grabel and his defense was gonna be good against to show Watson, you're mistaking there to my friends, Uh, he's averaging 25 draftkings points in three meetings against the rebel lead Titans, you know, since he's taken over.
00:26:46
So I again finding out the stats I'm a sucker for, and I love digging through and everything and finding this all out.
00:26:53
But, um, it's really gonna bode well for him this week.
00:26:56
Also to another thing that we really didn't touch on Tennessee, ranked 27th in the NFL and an explosive pass rate allowed toe wide receivers.
00:27:06
Does that mean that just means you know, 2020 plus yard plays? Tennessee is giving up a ton of them this season.
00:27:13
On the flip side of this.
00:27:14
Now again, I do like Houston plus 3.5.
00:27:17
I would not mind buying up at half point to make it a nice four, But, uh, you know Derrick Henry, of course.
00:27:23
You know, we know this guy is one of the best in the league.
00:27:25
Houston's run defense has been awful.
00:27:27
Uh, they're in the bottom third of D d o a and yards per carry a 4.
00:27:32
7 some.
00:27:34
You know, I think that this could eventually be, uh, you know ah, pretty good scoring game.
00:27:40
The total is that 53 points.
00:27:42
The way I'm looking at this is live again.
00:27:45
Well, I do like the Texans in this match up with the point.
00:27:48
I do think that look, we could probably see a little bit of a slow start from the Titans.
00:27:53
Keep in mind, keeping in mind, knowing that they're three and 11 on these short week game since 2013.
00:27:59
And, of course, you know, playing on Tuesday night, there's a lot going against them early.
00:28:02
So again, I'm not necessarily loving the over right away, but I think that there is a nice spot in this game for the Titans to kind of claw back late and maybe win this game by a field goal.
00:28:16
But I absolutely love the Texans.
00:28:18
That plus four.
00:28:19
If we could get him there this week, Uh, one game that I'm sure everybody's just absolutely excited about.
00:28:27
With the Washington football team at the New York Giants this week looking at the spread on this one, I believe the Giants are still too and ahead.
00:28:36
Yes, they are.
00:28:37
They are 2.5 point favorites in this one. Moneyline.
00:28:39
They're at my small 40 eight Redskins plus 1 30 on the money line.
00:28:43
I think that this is probably one of the more interesting bets of the week.
00:28:47
So look, I think everybody is thinking of themselves.
00:28:51
Oh, yeah, it's time for for the Giants.
00:28:53
They got their first win of the season, man in the words off.
00:28:57
Jesus, Brent Musburger Key.
00:28:59
Jackson, Help! Somebody help me out here.
00:29:01
But not so fast.
00:29:02
My father.
00:29:03
Oh, no, Lee Corso.
00:29:04
Like Corso, you know, when you do these shows solo, you're you're allowed a couple screwups What's asked them? But, you know, looking at this game like there's just a huge fundamental difference on, you know, the Redskins defensive line going against the Giants offensive line.
00:29:19
One matchup.
00:29:21
I'm really looking forward to hear Number two pick Chase Young going head to head against number four pick Andrew Thomas.
00:29:27
Giants fans, you know who remind them of the woods.
00:29:29
They know very well that Thomas has not played up to expectations this season.
00:29:33
Uh, you know, get him in the G m of the Giants.
00:29:36
He had his pick of all these stud offensive linemen.
00:29:39
And by the way, thank you for letting Tristan words drop all the way to the Tampa Bay Bucks.
00:29:43
Neither here nor there.
00:29:44
But, you know, he had his choice of what was a four or five linemen he could have picked.
00:29:49
Uh, not that did not go so well for him there at number four.
00:29:52
So, uh, that's gonna be good, Thomas.
00:29:55
By the way, he is struggling mightily out of 68 tackles in, you know, qualified pass protection.
00:30:02
He ranked 61st out of all their So chase young, you know, hopefully gonna be full strength for this one.
00:30:09
Ready to go with Danny dimes.
00:30:10
And I just think that, you know, a lot of people really aren't looking at the football team.
00:30:15
It's so weird to say.
00:30:16
Still, there they're not.
00:30:18
They're just not looking at this team as a capable team.
00:30:20
And keep in mind looking.
00:30:22
What happened last week, right? With the L.
00:30:24
A.
00:30:25
Rams just absolutely making Alex Smith their their ragdoll out there.
00:30:30
I I feel good.
00:30:31
You know, Kyle Allen is supposed to be back for this one for the football team.
00:30:35
And, you know, I think that they can absolutely, uh, lead, lead the lead, the team there to victory.
00:30:40
So one other aspect I wanna look at here the over 43.
00:30:44
So both teams here rank, uh, last the worst two teams in rushing in the NFL Giants, the one in dead last, and then the Redskins, their next.
00:30:53
Um, look, if if these teams suck it, rushing the football and you know yeah, sure, they do suck it throwing the football, too.
00:31:02
Let's not get that twisted, but there's gonna be a lot of clock stoppages, right? And we know Danny Dimes.
00:31:07
This guy turns the ball over with great regularity.
00:31:10
He's already got five interceptions this season.
00:31:12
Now, first speaking on the over, it's not great to say that he hasn't thrown a touchdown since week one.
00:31:18
However, you know the guy's got legs to he can get it done.
00:31:21
I was actually I was looking at a profit for this game with Danny Jones rushing.
00:31:26
Now you can get it 20.
00:31:28
5 over on William Hill minus 1 20.
00:31:31
I kind of like that number, you know, against the Redskins last season.
00:31:33
He compliant.
00:31:34
He could buy in tow, have Blues 40 I think 45 yards between the two games, their stuff.
00:31:40
He is capable of it.
00:31:41
One of those games, the first one, the one at home.
00:31:44
He rushed for 35 yards in that game.
00:31:46
So that's certainly a profit that we could take a look at this week.
00:31:50
And look, I just think turnovers could certainly be a factor here.
00:31:55
Huge matchup.
00:31:56
Bradbury going up against McLachlan there for for the Redskins.
00:32:00
So this is sort of an opportunity, I think, where you can catch Vegas slipping on this one.
00:32:05
But the one that I really do like more than anything, is certainly going to be the Washington money line there.
00:32:11
And minus 1 37 I'm sorry, plus 1.
00:32:14
30 so I will I'm definitely gonna throw that one in for Sunday.
00:32:18
One game that I wrote about heavily this week to lions at the Jags.
00:32:22
We've got the lion's as 3.
00:32:24
5 point favorite one minus 1 77 on the money line, with the total sitting at 54 a half.
00:32:31
So interesting note that I found here thanks to the action network for this one.
00:32:37
I found it on their website, but road favorites coming off a bye.
00:32:41
Since 2003 they have covered 69% of the games.
00:32:45
They are 62 28 2 in this one.
00:32:47
So again, Matt Patricia again, another guy that really hasn't lived up to expectations but good news form this week, you're gonna have the full complement of weapons there with, you know, Kenny Golladay, who's been absolutely fantastic in these two weeks since coming back to the lineup.
00:33:04
He you know, he missed the first three weeks, but just fantastic outputs against Arizona and New Orleans each those last two games, Uh, Marvin Jones Jr.
00:33:12
Of course, TJ Hawkinson.
00:33:13
You know he's having a pretty decent season.
00:33:17
I mean, I expect them to do a lot better.
00:33:19
But again, When? When you got that many weapons at your disposal.
00:33:22
You know, Matt Stafford kinda gotta pick and choose who was throwing the **** ball, too.
00:33:26
But, um, you know, this is this is a great opportunity for Stafford Thio do some damage.
00:33:32
And again for all your DFS folks out there, you definitely want to take a look at it because, you know Jacksonville, they're allowing the most passing yards per attempt at 8.7.
00:33:41
You know, obviously, league worst pass defense out there.
00:33:44
So when you have so many weapons at your disposal like Stafford does, this is gonna be fairly easy to move the ball.
00:33:51
Uh, kinda again.
00:33:52
Kind of like the over.
00:33:53
You know, we talked about a couple hundreds already, but this is another game where I kind of like the over a 54.5.
00:33:58
We look at that, too, because on one side, we've got the league's worst passing defense.
00:34:03
And on one side, we got the league's worst rushing defense.
00:34:06
So you definitely want to check out usada's dot com again.
00:34:10
I've got James Robinson written up in the running back section.
00:34:13
Great profit.
00:34:14
There on William Hill over 10 1.
00:34:16
5 rushing and receiving.
00:34:19
You know, total yards there again.
00:34:21
Juice. Juice.
00:34:22
Really. Not that bad.
00:34:23
So you could certainly take advantage of that one.
00:34:25
The one reason I will say this with, uh, you know, in regard to the lions doing well in this game Shark, You know, receiver for the jags.
00:34:36
Not going.
00:34:37
Probably not gonna play I again.
00:34:39
I haven't seen update just yet, but a zai saw earlier in the week.
00:34:44
He was quote unquote, very questionable to play in this ****.
00:34:47
So again men's shoes.
00:34:49
Worst game of the season was that we three game at home against Miami on Thursday night, where he did not have chart for that game.
00:34:55
So that is kind of telling, you know, if you know, if he's not gonna have his main weapon out there, obviously you're not gonna bode well for the team.
00:35:02
But in terms of the over and everything that you know I told you about with James Robinson, you know, that just means that we're gonna be able to move the ball a lot more, So I really like you know, Stafford in alliance to kind of get a get a early edge here, you know, with the lead.
00:35:17
Maybe jump out to touch down something like that, and then just have a dump office down James Robinson, get a couple of draws going, things like that.
00:35:25
And look, I think plenty of points are gonna be on the board today, but the one that I feel a lot more confident and is certainly Detroit minus 2 3.
00:35:31
5 with you already know I would buy down to three.
00:35:35
Ah, lot of these.
00:35:36
I hate the hook.
00:35:37
I absolutely hate it.
00:35:38
It's ridiculous.
00:35:40
But that's that's certainly where I'm leaning in that one, uh, Broncos at Patriots this week.
00:35:45
I don't have a lot to say about this game.
00:35:47
Cam Newton and stuff on Gilmore back.
00:35:49
If anything, maybe I go with the under 45.
00:35:52
It's kind of been awkward week for these teams getting down to business.
00:35:55
Obviously, the Patriots and that whole fiasco, uh, you know, trying trying toe avoid all these positive Kobe tests and whatnot.
00:36:03
Uh, Melvin Gordon got a d y during the week, the Broncos running back.
00:36:07
So, you know you don't know how that's gonna fair.
00:36:10
I just think both of these both of these teams right now, we're kind of, you know, football is not the first thing on their mind right now, So I'm not I'm not gonna really touch this game at all DFS or betting wise this week.
00:36:23
But I will tell you that.
00:36:25
You know, if you had a gun to my head right now, I'd probably be taken the under 45.
00:36:30
All right? That'll that'll do it for the one o'clock slate of games before we get into four o'clock Slate and the rest.
00:36:37
Let me tell you about the promo offer.
00:36:39
William Hill.
00:36:40
You check that out, use the promo code ts 500.
00:36:43
That ts for taking sides, folks.
00:36:45
And you get a bonus match deposit of up to $500.
00:36:48
What that means is you can deposit only up to $500.
00:36:52
You get $500 in return and site credit.
00:36:55
Now that I believe the same sort of situation.
00:36:57
If you deposit $250 they'll roll you over with $250 in sight credit there as well.
00:37:04
So, once again, that's William hill dot com.
00:37:07
Using promo code ts 500 for the bonus Max deposit of up to 500 data.
00:37:13
All right, let's get into these four o'clock and real quick, weird, weird scheduling by the NFL.
00:37:19
By the way, they only put 24 o'clock games.
00:37:21
But, you know, I guess they kind of wanted to showcase that Brady Rodgers matchup, which we'll get to next.
00:37:27
But let's get this one out of the way.
00:37:29
First New York Jets in Miami Dolphins.
00:37:32
We got a total of 47 a half year, and we saw the line open up at minus eight for the Miami Dolphins.
00:37:39
That has since shot up to 9.
00:37:41
5, tied for the highest increase of the week for any team.
00:37:44
So this is interesting because the Miami Dolphins are favored in a game for the first time in 21 Try.
00:37:53
Uh, it's also the first time that they're favored by over a touchdown since November of 2016 and it's also worth noting that they haven't won back to back games by double digits since 2015.
00:38:05
So what we have here is just a very opportunity time from the Dolphins to do some ass kicking on the New York Jets.
00:38:11
Now, you know, I've been duped twice by the Jets already this season, Week one against the Bills.
00:38:17
And then, of course, that I think it was Week four matchup on Thursday night against the job against the Broncos.
00:38:22
I will not be duped again here.
00:38:25
Uh, even even in the cove it era, I could see some of these thes Jets players get the Miami flu having them some fun down in South Beach before this game.
00:38:33
But again, these guys just do not wanna win for for Adam Gates right now and again, the roster is going to tell you that it's another start for Joe Flacco.
00:38:41
Uh, you know he's gonna be going in there for Sam.
00:38:43
Donald, I think the Jets kinda, you know, want to protect what they got left of the guy.
00:38:47
Maybe they could using this trade bait or something along those lines.
00:38:50
But by the way, Indianapolis Colts, I would definitely make that call on Sam Donald right there.
00:38:56
Because, you know, we know the Jets of tanking for Trevor at this point.
00:39:00
Are the guy the kid from Ohio State? So yeah, They ain't trying to do nothing big here.
00:39:05
But again, You know, all those numbers that I gave you there from Miami, The fact that there such, you know, huge favorites in this game even, you know, not having all that success historically, uh, you know, it just lends itself toe Ryan Fitzpatrick having a huge day.
00:39:20
I mean, the kid, the kid, the old man, he you know, he's got a fantastic situation here.
00:39:26
You know, Jets pass defense.
00:39:27
Absolutely terrible.
00:39:28
Appear to steer.
00:39:29
You know, we saw this guy get absolutely toasted in that Thursday night game against the, uh, against the Denver Broncos.
00:39:35
And, you know, like, What do you What are we thinking? Like Devante Parker is not gonna do that. Come on.
00:39:41
Uh, this is gonna be a nice, easy win here for the Dolphins.
00:39:44
Now, the one thing I will say there is some hope of optimism for the Jets offense in this game.
00:39:49
Jamison Crowder has got himself a fantastic matchup in this one.
00:39:54
Hate to be a broken record, but again, go to us odds and check out, uh, the article that I posted up there in there.
00:40:00
You will see that his matchup against Nick Need him is one of the best in the biz.
00:40:04
So need him is a second year backup in his career already, And, by the way, this is in limited action on 87 targets.
00:40:12
Over the course of his career, he's allowed 785 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
00:40:18
Folks, this is a backup.
00:40:19
Alright, this isn't even a guy that is playing all the time, But this is the matchup that Crowder is gonna draw this weekend.
00:40:25
And you know when? When we look at what's been going on against Dolphins this season, it's been the slot.
00:40:31
There has been absolutely crushing them.
00:40:32
All five opposing slot receivers, uh, you know, to face the Dolphins this season have seen at least six targets.
00:40:39
So again, Jamison Crowder will absolutely be in my draftkings lineup this week.
00:40:44
Uh, you know, again, this is this is a situation where the jets are all but likely going to be trying to come from behind.
00:40:51
So if you take a look at the prop it there on William Hill, you could get Jamison Crowder over 5.
00:40:57
5 catches there and I believe, minus 1 15.
00:41:01
Is the juice on that? It's not a lot, Um, you know, if I'm wrong, I'll correct myself, but I just I haven't I didn't see huge juice on that one.
00:41:08
It's insane.
00:41:09
You know, when we look at at Crowder stat line this season, let's go.
00:41:13
So he missed two games this season.
00:41:15
He's still crushing it.
00:41:16
Weak one at Buffalo, eight catches on 13 targets for a buck, 16 and a touchdown.
00:41:22
Week four against Denver.
00:41:24
Seven receptions on 10 targets for a buck 04 Week five against Arizona last week.
00:41:29
Eight receptions on 10 targets for a buck 16 and a touchdown.
00:41:33
Insanity folks, Joe Flacco.
00:41:35
You know he's gonna be looking for Crowder all day.
00:41:37
So again, Jets fans.
00:41:40
You don't want to take your team here with the plus 9.
00:41:43
5.
00:41:44
But you could certainly have some fun with Jamison Crowder getting busy in this one.
00:41:48
And don't forget Frank Gore revenge matchup.
00:41:51
They get him a touchdown.
00:41:52
Who knows? I doubt it, but yeah, let's let's just stick with the crowd for now.
00:41:56
All right, folks, for the main event, I can't wait for this one.
00:42:00
This is gonna be fantastic Green Bay Packers at my Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where we got to spread opened at two.
00:42:07
Currently.
00:42:08
Right now we are seeing it, uh, at one point, favorites for the Packers.
00:42:12
Moneyline's gonna be minuscule here.
00:42:15
Ah, you know, you're essentially getting 1 10 on both sides there.
00:42:19
So looking at this one again, another another prop section that I wrote up in this game for us odds.
00:42:26
But, you know, I'm all over these Brady Rodgers profits now, the reason why.
00:42:32
And it's gonna be interesting to note because, you know, my my boys, my books we lost video for the season.
00:42:39
Just a devastating broken leg injury.
00:42:42
Uh, that's a reason why Tampa Bay had the number one rush defense in the NFL for I don't know what last 23 years? Uh, this season they were allowing 2.
00:42:51
7 yards per carry.
00:42:53
The next best team those Pittsburgh Steelers that we talked about earlier, 3.
00:42:57
3 yards per carry.
00:42:58
So obviously a huge gap there between number one and two.
00:43:01
And you know, you just you look at it and on the surface, you know, you look at those numbers, you say all right, This could be a huge day for Erin Jones, but without the aid of a, uh oh, I'm sorry.
00:43:11
It could be a tough day front, Jones, but rushing the football, But with Vita they out.
00:43:15
I'm I'm very interested to see how how that goes.
00:43:18
Obviously, I want my boys to do well, I just I think that that's that's way too big of a Plug Thio to be missing from from your defense.
00:43:26
So I'm gonna change my tune a little bit on what I said earlier in the week and thinking that you know the box, you know, would stop the run and and, you know, really force Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball a lot more.
00:43:38
I think I think the Packers could probably be all right.
00:43:41
Um, you know, running the football, controlling the clock.
00:43:44
You know, looking at the Packers this year, I mean, their offense has been insane.
00:43:47
They the offense has a 93.
00:43:49
3 offensive efficiency rating, which is second best in NFL history through four weeks.
00:43:56
With the 2000 and eight, uh, Rams were actually the, uh, the ones toe have that at the best, So e mean this.
00:44:04
This is kind of what Aaron Rodgers is doing right now.
00:44:07
This year, you know? No, no picks this guy, you know? He's solid, man.
00:44:11
If you take, you take a look at the profit.
00:44:13
I even I threw this in.
00:44:14
There is kind of ah, like a goofy, like Go ahead and do it if you want.
00:44:18
But Aaron Rodgers to throw no interceptions on Sunday is minus 2 20.
00:44:23
Like, you gotta lay that massive to 20 in order to get yourself 100 bucks.
00:44:28
So, you know, this is how this is how efficient the guy's been all season.
00:44:32
Um, you know, in terms of the box, hopefully we could get Chris Godwin back this week. That would be fantastic.
00:44:39
You know, Certainly missed them here the last couple of weeks.
00:44:41
Especially in that game against the Bears.
00:44:43
I mean, you know, having Khalil Mack just absolutely ruined the game plan.
00:44:47
Uh, you know, definitely, definitely was not.
00:44:50
Not in the making there, but 11 thing to know.
00:44:54
And, you know, the sharp betters have already picked up on it, but the over in this one, So we initially saw the total open.
00:45:02
I think 54.
00:45:03
Now we're all the way up to 55 a half.
00:45:05
Don't Don't underestimate the power of time off my friends, because, you know, Green Bay had thereby.
00:45:11
Last week, Brady had three extra days to prepare for this game.
00:45:15
Thes air.
00:45:16
These are two of the best to do it.
00:45:17
My friends, you know, and, you know, believe me, these air not guys that go out there and just slinging around these air methodical sons of *****es out there.
00:45:25
So you give Aaron Rodgers seven extra days to prepare you give Tom Brady three extra days to prepare, they're gonna put points on the scoreboard without a doubt and again to, you know, Yeah, my mind kind of changes a little bit with the aid of a being out, but I just think that you're going to see a lot of passing in this game, you know, to the bus.
00:45:44
Uh, you know, I don't think we're going to see the Packers necessary playing.
00:45:47
Keep away from Tom Brady.
00:45:49
Maybe Brady and the Bucks do that.
00:45:51
But, uh, this is, you know, this is a game where they should have all the weapons back and plenty of time to prepare.
00:45:56
So 55 a half, I don't love it.
00:46:00
I kinda would rather get back down to that 54 range.
00:46:03
But so what? You know, you you go on draftkings and you buy a couple of points, you know, whatever.
00:46:07
Get yourself in a good position to win folks up there, Right? Ronald Jones could be interesting this week.
00:46:12
If wanna fernet Mrs um or is limited in any way for net has missed the last two games, So could it be interesting to see how the bucks kind of rotate him back? But, I mean, Ronald Jones has been doing just fine.
00:46:25
Two straight games with 100 yards rushing.
00:46:27
He's got nine catches on 14 targets, although they didn't go for a lot of yards in those last two weeks.
00:46:32
But again, let's you know, we got we gotta wait and see what the bucks are doing there.
00:46:36
But definitely if you're playing DFS this week, that could be an interesting way to go, especially with a lot of people probably, you know, drifting toward that that narrative of Brady verse Rogers.
00:46:47
Yes.
00:46:48
We need to have some of the pass catchers in the air yards in this game.
00:46:51
But you know Ronald Jones, Erin Jones Jones squared, baby.
00:46:55
That could be a nice where to go in this matchup, so definitely look into that.
00:46:59
All right, so I'm gonna I'm gonna wrap it up here on the show after this game.
00:47:03
Actually, no.
00:47:04
We're gonna get a little bit of baseball at this game, but the Sunday night game with the Rams of the 40 Niners, that's the last football game we're gonna talk about.
00:47:12
I want to try to get back on the air Monday and kind of discuss the NFL doubleheader.
00:47:16
I think we've got some, uh, nice hits going on with that.
00:47:19
So I'm gonna leave those two for that day.
00:47:22
Of course, I'm gonna have profit write ups for those games, too.
00:47:25
So make sure you go to us as again for that, But let's go.
00:47:30
Let's go out to San Francisco because it's an absolute disaster.
00:47:33
It's actually Santa Clara.
00:47:34
But let's you know, let's not get crazy.
00:47:36
Uh, Rams open history and a half point favorites there now, three point favorites.
00:47:42
We got the money line sitting at minus 1 75 for them.
00:47:45
Niners by the way, plus 1 50 on the money line as well.
00:47:49
What the hell is going on with the 40 Niners? I mean, yeah.
00:47:53
Go ahead, say injuries, injuries, air.
00:47:55
Absolutely huge part.
00:47:56
You miss a guy like both.
00:47:57
Of course, it's gonna hurt your bottom line D for not there, but they got enough capable guys.
00:48:04
They got capable guys that could beat the Eagles at home.
00:48:07
That could, I don't know.
00:48:09
They could be incapable guys.
00:48:12
That could be the Dolphins at home over in three.
00:48:15
So far, against the spread and straight up three.
00:48:18
Only two wins coming at MetLife Stadium for that back to back East Coast trip there for the Jets and the Giants.
00:48:23
But, well, this is an absolute disaster.
00:48:26
I told you guys earlier in the week that I really like the over in this game, and not much has changed in that regard.
00:48:32
Um, I I just I don't have any faith in this Niners defense right now.
00:48:38
Jared Goff has been an absolute gorgeous ******* this year.
00:48:43
70% completion rate in three straight road games for the man.
00:48:48
But if you were wondering if there's a franchise record, no Kurt Warner did it 55 straight times on the road before.
00:48:54
But, you know, you look at what's going on right now with the Rams.
00:48:58
They're gonna be able to run the football against the 40 Niners on when they're able to run the football.
00:49:02
They are absolutely the best at play action passes.
00:49:06
So again, if this Niners team isn't gonna get any pressure on on Jared Goff Goodnight, senorita.
00:49:14
And then on the other side, you look at it to the Rams.
00:49:16
Tied for the most sacks in the NFL right now with 20.
00:49:19
Meanwhile, the the 40 Niners offensive one is struggling quite a bit.
00:49:24
They've all had 18 sacks, which is tied for fourth most in the NFL.
00:49:27
Not a good matchup right there, right? Aaron? Donald? Yeah, Just hey, had an unbeliever.
00:49:33
He was ridiculous last week against the Redskins.
00:49:36
And you know, Paul and I were talking about that is like, yeah, but it was It was against the Redskins, and that was we're still human bodies that he just went straight through last week.
00:49:44
So I'm really looking forward to see what he does against the 40 Niners.
00:49:47
But in saying that you know, because I did say that I like tea over in this game.
00:49:52
I think that we could certainly look at some more turnovers.
00:49:55
Look at what happened last week against the Miami Dolphins.
00:49:58
You know, like granted it was Jimmy G in the lineup and, you know, you know, we might see a change.
00:50:03
Kyle Shanahan did say that he wanted Thio, you know, see how Grapples Ankle was doing there in game situations.
00:50:09
But I just think that this is one that the Rams going away within a very high scoring game for the last five Rams Niners game have totaled 49 or more points.
00:50:19
So that is certainly, uh that's certainly something that we gotta take into a camp, But yeah, I'm going.
00:50:25
I'm going rams and over in this one, Uh, not not really changing my mind on that.
00:50:31
All right, so we'll cap it off there with the football.
00:50:35
As I said, I'll try to get a Monday, show him on break down these two Monday games because they're absolutely fantastic.
00:50:42
There's nothing else you wanna be watching on TV, but we gotta end with some baseball and oh my God, the Dodgersbullpen last night.
00:50:51
Like, if if you absolutely trying to give me a **** aneurism last night.
00:50:58
So I had the under nine in that game.
00:51:00
The line opened it 9.
00:51:01
5 went all the way down to 8.
00:51:02
5, I I got it.
00:51:04
Luckily, on one of the sites where it was still kind of lingering around there at nine.
00:51:09
11 game going into the bottom of the sixth.
00:51:12
And then we get a little bit of playoff. Kershaw.
00:51:15
They didn't leave.
00:51:16
Dave Roberts didn't leave them in too long there.
00:51:18
But, um, you know, this is, uh yeah, this is where the dodgersbullpen certainly faltered in that one.
00:51:26
Uh, you know, ended up being E.
00:51:28
I forgot the **** final score of the game, but it was not good.
00:51:31
Tended to Sorry.
00:51:33
Uh, so again, Braves going, You know, we got to elimination games here today.
00:51:39
Once again, we're two teams could wind up getting themselves into the world.
00:51:44
Siri's, by the way.
00:51:45
As you know, I'm a Phillies fan.
00:51:47
My **** teams air all over the map.
00:51:50
I moved around so much as a kid, but if I see the Houston Astros, Atlanta world.
00:51:54
Syria.
00:51:55
I don't even know what I'm gonna do to myself.
00:51:56
Like as a Philly fan.
00:51:58
You know, obviously the Braves, they just irk me to death.
00:52:01
But as a human being, it's the Astros that irked me to death.
00:52:05
So I certainly will not be loving that.
00:52:09
Of course, I'm gonna watch the games because I'm probably gonna bet on them.
00:52:12
But it's a look.
00:52:13
If I watch the game, it doesn't mean I have to like it. Right.
00:52:16
So the first game today on the MLB docket, we have got the the Astros and the Rays.
00:52:23
Interesting to note here already the So the total is opened at eight.
00:52:27
Meanwhile, both team totals have dipped down a lot.
00:52:30
Now, if you know me from my writings with baseball, uh, I'll let the cat out of bed go to fantasy labs dot com.
00:52:38
They have the Vegas tab on there, and you can kind of see well, the different movements, whether it's money line totals, team totals, things like that.
00:52:46
It's enormously helpful to betting baseball, and again it's free.
00:52:50
That's the best part.
00:52:51
So I would I would obviously use that.
00:52:53
But when you look at these numbers.
00:52:55
You see both team totals dipping down below.
00:52:58
Now when both team totals dip.
00:53:00
Obviously, that's a good sign for the under.
00:53:02
When you see those team totals dip, you usually see the game total dip.
00:53:06
That hasn't happened yet.
00:53:07
So if you could still get this Astros rays game in, uh, under eight, I would certainly love to take that.
00:53:14
You know, again, I know everybody is, like, terrified of taking unders.
00:53:19
Uh, in this new covert era that we live in, It's like defense almost just doesn't exist anymore.
00:53:24
But luckily, Tampa Bay Rays.
00:53:27
We know that they play some of the best, if not the best baseball on defense.
00:53:30
Um, you know, we're gonna have a lovely pitching match up here in the Rays favor here today to, um, for the Astros.
00:53:39
It's gonna be free number of all days going up against Blake Snell.
00:53:42
Look, Snell, you know, he could have a hard time against this Astros lineup, but again, these are guys that could also strike out a ton.
00:53:48
Um, you know, with Snell on the mound, I don't even expect smell to go that deep into the game.
00:53:54
I think it probably get himself five innings and then turn it over to the bullpen.
00:53:57
But, you know, when you when you also to When you look at this game, it's, you know, the razor two games away from doing a 2004 Yankees where you know where they blow the three, nothing lead there.
00:54:11
So I think the Rays kinda clamp it down.
00:54:14
Today they get themselves back, back, focused and and end up winning this game.
00:54:19
But again, I'm really liking the the under eight there from Sam, what with those numbers there, uh, in the other game.
00:54:27
Interesting to note, Dodgers once again have that huge team total that we saw in game three.
00:54:34
I don't know if you guys remember, but we talked about it.
00:54:37
You know, the Dodgers had a a total that was about a run and a half mawr than any other team on the slate there.
00:54:46
So when we look at it today, I mean, you know, the closest team in total runs is to raise at four.
00:54:53
So there are over a brother and a half, you know, better in terms of the team total there.
00:54:58
That's usually a good sign.
00:55:00
I would not mind taking a shot here on the Dodgers run run and a half one.
00:55:05
When looking at that at that Siri's line yesterday, I found it baffling that the Dodgers were still minus 1 10.
00:55:15
Thio.
00:55:16
Take that, You know, to take the Siri's looking at them right now.
00:55:20
Plus there, plus 3 30 to win the Siri's, which is interesting, you know, considering the Astros or plus 3 60 to win their Siri's.
00:55:28
The Rays minus 500 the highest of any team to win their Siri's still, too.
00:55:32
So again, that bodes well for both sides there today.
00:55:35
But again, with the with the Dodgers having that 5.
00:55:37
7 run total.
00:55:39
I mean, how could you not love that right there? Uh, the Braves, as if I'm not mistaking they still haven't decided on the starter in the skin yet, either.
00:55:47
So that means probably a bullpen game.
00:55:49
And again, I am, uh, I'm pretty confident in the Dodgers and this one taking a look at the run line.
00:55:56
They don't even have a run line net, so just just keep an eye out for that.
00:56:00
But But right now, for the time being, get that under eight in for the Astros and the Rays game.
00:56:07
Oh, that'll do it for the show today.
00:56:09
Folks had a lot of fun speaking to everybody by myself.
00:56:13
It's a pig daunting task when you do this by yourself.
00:56:17
So hopefully you guys enjoyed the show there.
00:56:19
And, by the way, I'll give out both the promo codes once again.
00:56:24
Goto bet 3 65.
00:56:26
If you deposit 100 you get 100 back in sight credits.
00:56:29
It's very simple.
00:56:30
Just use the promo code us odd 100.
00:56:33
And then again for William Hill.
00:56:34
A little bit of a bigger offer.
00:56:36
But, you know, if you're not a big better, maybe don't take full advantage of it.
00:56:39
Goto William hill dot com Use that promo code t s 500 you will get a bonus deposit back up to $500.
00:56:48
So once again, deposit 500 bucks, get 500 bucks back inside credit.
00:56:53
Also, don't forget to follow us the show on Twitter at taking underscore sides.
00:56:59
You follow Paul at game day facts, and you follow myself at 14 aids at walls for May Paul.
00:57:05
US size the rest of the universe.
00:57:08
Folks have a great weekend.
00:57:09
Hopefully we see on Monday.
00:57:11
Uh,

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