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00:00:05
and good morning fantasy football fans.
00:00:08
My name is Gary a k a the I.
00:00:10
D p.
00:00:11
Tipster of gridiron ratings dot com senior ****yst and full.
00:00:16
And, uh, we have a new guys with us this morning.
00:00:20
Of course, you can see we go a little bit early is normal.
00:00:22
We usually go from 10 but we got a few guys gonna be checking in, so we got the jump on it and, uh, here, limited time this morning, so we wanted to make sure we got his good jet in.
00:00:35
Um, I'm gonna tell you now.
00:00:37
You might have some fan ity.
00:00:39
You might have some adults smoking cigarettes. Whatever.
00:00:42
We just disclaimer there.
00:00:44
I'm excited.
00:00:45
Uh, Thio invite Justin to the morning show.
00:00:51
I guess you could say, um, it's his first time on here.
00:00:55
I've talked to him.
00:00:56
We've been kind of hit and miss had some other topics come up in last week, he wouldn't be able to come up.
00:01:01
Wouldn't be ableto to make it.
00:01:03
But Justin, please introduce yourself to the viewers, and you just go ahead and just carry it, you know, right along, and we'll get we'll get started.
00:01:13
Yeah, my pleasure.
00:01:14
Gary, You guys air.
00:01:16
Ah, love.
00:01:17
Both of you guys work.
00:01:18
So this is a lot of fun.
00:01:19
Could be to hop on and talk to my DP.
00:01:21
Um, yeah, that's one of the things that I think is great about our little I.
00:01:25
D.
00:01:26
P community is you know how well we get along and help each other share information because there's there's not enough information getting out there to people who play I d p eso.
00:01:36
They'll have in their own minds like certain expectations for for what? They're what they're players are supposed to be doing.
00:01:42
And then they're confused about why that's not happening s Oh, I like that as a community, we kind of tend to band together and help each other out.
00:01:50
And that was, you know, when you asked me to come on and, you know, you mentioned a couple of topics.
00:01:54
That was one of the things that was on my mind is how often we get questions.
00:01:57
But hey, man, I'll come Player X on.
00:02:00
Lee got three tackles.
00:02:01
What happened? You know, on DSO digging through that stuff in trying to help our listeners and our viewers understand what's going on there.
00:02:10
You know, one of the topics that is interesting to me is snap counts.
00:02:14
You know, uh, you know, as you guys have, football is a time sports.
00:02:18
So there's a fairly solid expected range of the number of plays a team is going to run in the game.
00:02:24
Eso theatric number of snaps of defense base in the game usually hovers somewhere around 65.
00:02:31
You know, it might be in the high fifties one week.
00:02:34
It might be in the low seventies another week, but you know, we do have a range that we're expecting.
00:02:40
And when that range gets manipulated for one reason or another, it will adversely affect ah, players opportunities, right? I mean, the the simplest formula for for fantasy production is talent plus opportunity.
00:02:55
So mixing those two is really important to understand, you know, expectations.
00:02:59
So two things you know I'm looking at in terms of expected team snaps. Number one.
00:03:04
There's a team did a team in a particular week having abnormally low or high snap count that week, for example, a couple weeks ago that the Steelers defense they were only on the field for 47 snaps right.
00:03:17
And then there was that Chiefs overtime game where defenders were on on the field for like 93.
00:03:23
Snap as well, 47 2 93.
00:03:26
I mean, I mean one player played twice as play a whole other game that then some of the Steelers defense, right? And if that's not obvious, then you're going to see you know you're going to see ah, linebacker post five tackles when he would normally post eight or nine.
00:03:40
Or you see a linebacker post 14 tackles when they normally post eight or nine.
00:03:44
So looking for those kind of outliers from Week two week is important.
00:03:48
And then the other thing is, Does a defense, um, see fewer snaps per game than average, you know, and if so, why is that happening? And that's usually a couple of factors.
00:03:59
It's usually that either three offense they're playing is fairly inept, which means the offense can't stay on the field.
00:04:06
There's too many three an ounce or it could be the an offense plays slowly right there, just their pace of play.
00:04:13
We contract pace of play and some offenses run.
00:04:16
Yeah, absolutely, yes.
00:04:18
Some offenses run like molasses and others are super quick aside.
00:04:23
DP guys used to love Chip.
00:04:25
Kelly's offense is because he ran so fast, you know.
00:04:28
So we got lots of tackle opportunity.
00:04:30
Um, so you know, when you're looking at all of that, then the next thing is to figure out how how productive are our i dp guys per on a per snap basis.
00:04:42
So you start looking at things like tackle percentage or tackle rate.
00:04:45
How Maney tackles does a player get per per snap and and you know, so one of the players I wanted to highlight and that was Darius littered a couple weeks ago, I I posted out on Twitter.
00:04:57
I was like, Don't panic on Darius Leonard.
00:04:59
He's played every snap.
00:05:01
He's had a high tackle percentage, but he was 54th overall in snaps per game.
00:05:08
He was playing about 52 snaps per game, which is just consistently lower than most people he was playing.
00:05:14
He played Mawr.
00:05:15
He played fewer snaps than Jelani Tavai and Josh Bynes, and these guys were part.
00:05:20
Yeah, they're part time players, but Leonard was posting about, you know, 13 to 15% tackle, right? So if you think about 13 to 15% tackle rate.
00:05:33
And you, you say Darius Leonard gets 1000 snaps.
00:05:36
Well, there's 130 160 tackles per year that you're expecting for Darius Leonard.
00:05:41
He's just a little bit off to a slow start now.
00:05:43
Obviously, you got injured.
00:05:45
That's a whole other thing.
00:05:46
But, you know, looking at those factors you know we want to see, Are they playing every snap or most of the snaps? And are they tackling or getting sacks at at at an elite rate? If so, then it's not the player's fault.
00:05:59
It's game script, and we try to look for that going forward.
00:06:02
Do we find fast offenses that they're gonna play prolific offenses that are going to keep a defense on the field for a while? So these were gonna be things we're gonna look carefully at for Darius Leonard.
00:06:12
Various letters.
00:06:13
My guy Johnny, I know you've got some thoughts on this, uh, you know, from a different angle.
00:06:19
Like, how are you seeing snap counts that is there a particular player that you see this being affected by this? Yeah, absolutely.
00:06:25
I love everything you said there.
00:06:27
It's so true.
00:06:28
And It's something that doesn't get looked at a lot, Um, great example of guys just taking people off the waiver wire because they see production.
00:06:36
But they're not seeing playing time.
00:06:38
LJ fort.
00:06:40
Right? I've been I've been warning people about LBJ Fort this week.
00:06:44
One.
00:06:45
What did L.
00:06:46
J Fort do for you this week? Nothing.
00:06:47
Because he's because he's barely playing and he's having these outlier performances.
00:06:52
So yes, that's that's a huge part of it.
00:06:54
But Devon White Devon, Wait is the guy.
00:06:56
People have been kind of freaking out about the past couple weeks, and I get it.
00:07:01
You know, weeks one and two, they had New Orleans and Carolina.
00:07:04
They lost time of possession significantly each week by at least a few minutes. Five minutes.
00:07:09
I think in Carolina in the last three weeks.
00:07:12
They're actually, you know, if you look at the last three a step for NFL time of possession, they're second in the league at 33 minutes a game that's abnormally high.
00:07:22
That's a minute less than the 2019 Ravens.
00:07:25
There were 34 minutes a game, which was just incredible.
00:07:28
Like they, their defense barely touched the field.
00:07:31
Therefore you know, their guys didn't have as many opportunities as most normal defense is. And that's huge.
00:07:38
That's something you gotta look at. Eso.
00:07:40
Yeah.
00:07:41
Darius Leonard.
00:07:42
Week one and two when they're up against a New Orleans offense, which was obviously really good then still had Michael Thomas at that point for at least a little bit of it.
00:07:50
Um, and, you know, come on, has been great.
00:07:52
And then Carolina Week to who actually has, as of last week, the number eight passing offense, and Mike Davis ain't bad either.
00:08:00
Uh, you know, he had 11 combined tackles week 1 15 week to, uh they lost time of possession significantly both weeks that, you know, the defense was on the field.
00:08:10
20.
00:08:11
The opposing offenses were working well, and, uh, you know, sustaining drives.
00:08:16
That's that's what you need.
00:08:17
Friday P production Last three weeks.
00:08:19
Seven combined tackles, four combined tackles, three combined tackles and especially this last week.
00:08:24
The Bears.
00:08:26
14 rushing attempts.
00:08:27
That's it.
00:08:28
The entire game.
00:08:29
So without, you know, 2025 rushing attempts, something like that, that easy run stopping floor that we kind of just automatically count for guys like Kevin White and Lavonte.
00:08:42
David just isn't there? Eso I mean, I see people freaking out about this, and I don't I don't think you should.
00:08:49
Yeah, he's doing okay.
00:08:52
Yeah, he's doing good.
00:08:54
Yeah, but it is a veteran.
00:08:56
White.
00:08:58
Yeah, actually, is not doing bad.
00:09:02
No, no, he's doing good.
00:09:04
And that's the thing is, there's just not right.
00:09:07
There's not enough meat on the bone for both of them.
00:09:09
You know, the last three games anyway, I wouldn't I wouldn't worry, though, You know, like, if you're in a stupid, like, crazy, shallow lead.
00:09:16
Yeah, sure.
00:09:18
Look for something else.
00:09:19
But you know you right, right.
00:09:24
But if you got to start 34 linebackers a week, I think you just got to take it in and wait for a better offense to come around cause he'll be fine.
00:09:32
You know, the second they play a better offense, I think he's gonna be a OK.
00:09:36
But But you're right.
00:09:37
All these other factors play in.
00:09:40
And when when you know your average I d p.
00:09:43
Player is grabbing a guy off waivers.
00:09:46
Yeah, Look at very Carrie e.
00:09:56
Just wanna make sure something so mhm.
00:10:02
Yeah, There's no a Jenner Mm.
00:10:08
Um, yeah, but I know about yourself.
00:10:15
Uh huh.
00:10:16
Things stuff, or we do dead.
00:10:21
All right.
00:10:22
Your cut cutting out a little.
00:10:24
Is it clear? Yeah.
00:10:27
You're on you.
00:10:30
You're in.
00:10:31
No, You're cutting out a little.
00:10:34
Yeah.
00:10:36
Try.
00:10:37
Try going.
00:10:38
No video.
00:10:41
Ah, he's looking super frozen, Uh, waiting for forgetting to come back yet.
00:10:49
You're making a great point about about Devon White.
00:10:52
You know, he's and Labonte David.
00:10:54
And you know when when this happens to a wide receiver or running back, you know, the broadcast will say something like, Oh, they're They're just, you know, that they're not having that many rushing attempts, you know, or so it was not getting enough targets because they there in the ball more and then you know, the fantasy player homes like Okay, well, at least I know now why So and so doesn't have many targets.
00:11:17
Well, they're not saying that on the defense of side of the ball.
00:11:20
And so, you know, we you know, we just have we have, you know, fans and listeners that look at the box score in the same Wait a minute.
00:11:25
I only had four tackles and does He stink now, you know.
00:11:28
And so that makes it.
00:11:30
You know, this is why it's important that we we gather and and and help these listeners figure out like, No, there's nothing wrong with Devon White.
00:11:37
And trust me, if you if you throw them on the if you throw them out the waiver wire this week and he has 12 tackles in the sack next week, you're gonna you're gonna you're gonna beat yourself up, so just you have to ride those waves.
00:11:48
It happens on the offense and
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Monday Morning IDP Chalk Talk

14 Views
Justin Varnes @JustinVarnes

Transcript hideup

00:00:05
and good morning fantasy football fans.
00:00:08
My name is Gary a k a the I.
00:00:10
D p.
00:00:11
Tipster of gridiron ratings dot com senior ****yst and full.
00:00:16
And, uh, we have a new guys with us this morning.
00:00:20
Of course, you can see we go a little bit early is normal.
00:00:22
We usually go from 10 but we got a few guys gonna be checking in, so we got the jump on it and, uh, here, limited time this morning, so we wanted to make sure we got his good jet in.
00:00:35
Um, I'm gonna tell you now.
00:00:37
You might have some fan ity.
00:00:39
You might have some adults smoking cigarettes. Whatever.
00:00:42
We just disclaimer there.
00:00:44
I'm excited.
00:00:45
Uh, Thio invite Justin to the morning show.
00:00:51
I guess you could say, um, it's his first time on here.
00:00:55
I've talked to him.
00:00:56
We've been kind of hit and miss had some other topics come up in last week, he wouldn't be able to come up.
00:01:01
Wouldn't be ableto to make it.
00:01:03
But Justin, please introduce yourself to the viewers, and you just go ahead and just carry it, you know, right along, and we'll get we'll get started.
00:01:13
Yeah, my pleasure.
00:01:14
Gary, You guys air.
00:01:16
Ah, love.
00:01:17
Both of you guys work.
00:01:18
So this is a lot of fun.
00:01:19
Could be to hop on and talk to my DP.
00:01:21
Um, yeah, that's one of the things that I think is great about our little I.
00:01:25
D.
00:01:26
P community is you know how well we get along and help each other share information because there's there's not enough information getting out there to people who play I d p eso.
00:01:36
They'll have in their own minds like certain expectations for for what? They're what they're players are supposed to be doing.
00:01:42
And then they're confused about why that's not happening s Oh, I like that as a community, we kind of tend to band together and help each other out.
00:01:50
And that was, you know, when you asked me to come on and, you know, you mentioned a couple of topics.
00:01:54
That was one of the things that was on my mind is how often we get questions.
00:01:57
But hey, man, I'll come Player X on.
00:02:00
Lee got three tackles.
00:02:01
What happened? You know, on DSO digging through that stuff in trying to help our listeners and our viewers understand what's going on there.
00:02:10
You know, one of the topics that is interesting to me is snap counts.
00:02:14
You know, uh, you know, as you guys have, football is a time sports.
00:02:18
So there's a fairly solid expected range of the number of plays a team is going to run in the game.
00:02:24
Eso theatric number of snaps of defense base in the game usually hovers somewhere around 65.
00:02:31
You know, it might be in the high fifties one week.
00:02:34
It might be in the low seventies another week, but you know, we do have a range that we're expecting.
00:02:40
And when that range gets manipulated for one reason or another, it will adversely affect ah, players opportunities, right? I mean, the the simplest formula for for fantasy production is talent plus opportunity.
00:02:55
So mixing those two is really important to understand, you know, expectations.
00:02:59
So two things you know I'm looking at in terms of expected team snaps. Number one.
00:03:04
There's a team did a team in a particular week having abnormally low or high snap count that week, for example, a couple weeks ago that the Steelers defense they were only on the field for 47 snaps right.
00:03:17
And then there was that Chiefs overtime game where defenders were on on the field for like 93.
00:03:23
Snap as well, 47 2 93.
00:03:26
I mean, I mean one player played twice as play a whole other game that then some of the Steelers defense, right? And if that's not obvious, then you're going to see you know you're going to see ah, linebacker post five tackles when he would normally post eight or nine.
00:03:40
Or you see a linebacker post 14 tackles when they normally post eight or nine.
00:03:44
So looking for those kind of outliers from Week two week is important.
00:03:48
And then the other thing is, Does a defense, um, see fewer snaps per game than average, you know, and if so, why is that happening? And that's usually a couple of factors.
00:03:59
It's usually that either three offense they're playing is fairly inept, which means the offense can't stay on the field.
00:04:06
There's too many three an ounce or it could be the an offense plays slowly right there, just their pace of play.
00:04:13
We contract pace of play and some offenses run.
00:04:16
Yeah, absolutely, yes.
00:04:18
Some offenses run like molasses and others are super quick aside.
00:04:23
DP guys used to love Chip.
00:04:25
Kelly's offense is because he ran so fast, you know.
00:04:28
So we got lots of tackle opportunity.
00:04:30
Um, so you know, when you're looking at all of that, then the next thing is to figure out how how productive are our i dp guys per on a per snap basis.
00:04:42
So you start looking at things like tackle percentage or tackle rate.
00:04:45
How Maney tackles does a player get per per snap and and you know, so one of the players I wanted to highlight and that was Darius littered a couple weeks ago, I I posted out on Twitter.
00:04:57
I was like, Don't panic on Darius Leonard.
00:04:59
He's played every snap.
00:05:01
He's had a high tackle percentage, but he was 54th overall in snaps per game.
00:05:08
He was playing about 52 snaps per game, which is just consistently lower than most people he was playing.
00:05:14
He played Mawr.
00:05:15
He played fewer snaps than Jelani Tavai and Josh Bynes, and these guys were part.
00:05:20
Yeah, they're part time players, but Leonard was posting about, you know, 13 to 15% tackle, right? So if you think about 13 to 15% tackle rate.
00:05:33
And you, you say Darius Leonard gets 1000 snaps.
00:05:36
Well, there's 130 160 tackles per year that you're expecting for Darius Leonard.
00:05:41
He's just a little bit off to a slow start now.
00:05:43
Obviously, you got injured.
00:05:45
That's a whole other thing.
00:05:46
But, you know, looking at those factors you know we want to see, Are they playing every snap or most of the snaps? And are they tackling or getting sacks at at at an elite rate? If so, then it's not the player's fault.
00:05:59
It's game script, and we try to look for that going forward.
00:06:02
Do we find fast offenses that they're gonna play prolific offenses that are going to keep a defense on the field for a while? So these were gonna be things we're gonna look carefully at for Darius Leonard.
00:06:12
Various letters.
00:06:13
My guy Johnny, I know you've got some thoughts on this, uh, you know, from a different angle.
00:06:19
Like, how are you seeing snap counts that is there a particular player that you see this being affected by this? Yeah, absolutely.
00:06:25
I love everything you said there.
00:06:27
It's so true.
00:06:28
And It's something that doesn't get looked at a lot, Um, great example of guys just taking people off the waiver wire because they see production.
00:06:36
But they're not seeing playing time.
00:06:38
LJ fort.
00:06:40
Right? I've been I've been warning people about LBJ Fort this week.
00:06:44
One.
00:06:45
What did L.
00:06:46
J Fort do for you this week? Nothing.
00:06:47
Because he's because he's barely playing and he's having these outlier performances.
00:06:52
So yes, that's that's a huge part of it.
00:06:54
But Devon White Devon, Wait is the guy.
00:06:56
People have been kind of freaking out about the past couple weeks, and I get it.
00:07:01
You know, weeks one and two, they had New Orleans and Carolina.
00:07:04
They lost time of possession significantly each week by at least a few minutes. Five minutes.
00:07:09
I think in Carolina in the last three weeks.
00:07:12
They're actually, you know, if you look at the last three a step for NFL time of possession, they're second in the league at 33 minutes a game that's abnormally high.
00:07:22
That's a minute less than the 2019 Ravens.
00:07:25
There were 34 minutes a game, which was just incredible.
00:07:28
Like they, their defense barely touched the field.
00:07:31
Therefore you know, their guys didn't have as many opportunities as most normal defense is. And that's huge.
00:07:38
That's something you gotta look at. Eso.
00:07:40
Yeah.
00:07:41
Darius Leonard.
00:07:42
Week one and two when they're up against a New Orleans offense, which was obviously really good then still had Michael Thomas at that point for at least a little bit of it.
00:07:50
Um, and, you know, come on, has been great.
00:07:52
And then Carolina Week to who actually has, as of last week, the number eight passing offense, and Mike Davis ain't bad either.
00:08:00
Uh, you know, he had 11 combined tackles week 1 15 week to, uh they lost time of possession significantly both weeks that, you know, the defense was on the field.
00:08:10
20.
00:08:11
The opposing offenses were working well, and, uh, you know, sustaining drives.
00:08:16
That's that's what you need.
00:08:17
Friday P production Last three weeks.
00:08:19
Seven combined tackles, four combined tackles, three combined tackles and especially this last week.
00:08:24
The Bears.
00:08:26
14 rushing attempts.
00:08:27
That's it.
00:08:28
The entire game.
00:08:29
So without, you know, 2025 rushing attempts, something like that, that easy run stopping floor that we kind of just automatically count for guys like Kevin White and Lavonte.
00:08:42
David just isn't there? Eso I mean, I see people freaking out about this, and I don't I don't think you should.
00:08:49
Yeah, he's doing okay.
00:08:52
Yeah, he's doing good.
00:08:54
Yeah, but it is a veteran.
00:08:56
White.
00:08:58
Yeah, actually, is not doing bad.
00:09:02
No, no, he's doing good.
00:09:04
And that's the thing is, there's just not right.
00:09:07
There's not enough meat on the bone for both of them.
00:09:09
You know, the last three games anyway, I wouldn't I wouldn't worry, though, You know, like, if you're in a stupid, like, crazy, shallow lead.
00:09:16
Yeah, sure.
00:09:18
Look for something else.
00:09:19
But you know you right, right.
00:09:24
But if you got to start 34 linebackers a week, I think you just got to take it in and wait for a better offense to come around cause he'll be fine.
00:09:32
You know, the second they play a better offense, I think he's gonna be a OK.
00:09:36
But But you're right.
00:09:37
All these other factors play in.
00:09:40
And when when you know your average I d p.
00:09:43
Player is grabbing a guy off waivers.
00:09:46
Yeah, Look at very Carrie e.
00:09:56
Just wanna make sure something so mhm.
00:10:02
Yeah, There's no a Jenner Mm.
00:10:08
Um, yeah, but I know about yourself.
00:10:15
Uh huh.
00:10:16
Things stuff, or we do dead.
00:10:21
All right.
00:10:22
Your cut cutting out a little.
00:10:24
Is it clear? Yeah.
00:10:27
You're on you.
00:10:30
You're in.
00:10:31
No, You're cutting out a little.
00:10:34
Yeah.
00:10:36
Try.
00:10:37
Try going.
00:10:38
No video.
00:10:41
Ah, he's looking super frozen, Uh, waiting for forgetting to come back yet.
00:10:49
You're making a great point about about Devon White.
00:10:52
You know, he's and Labonte David.
00:10:54
And you know when when this happens to a wide receiver or running back, you know, the broadcast will say something like, Oh, they're They're just, you know, that they're not having that many rushing attempts, you know, or so it was not getting enough targets because they there in the ball more and then you know, the fantasy player homes like Okay, well, at least I know now why So and so doesn't have many targets.
00:11:17
Well, they're not saying that on the defense of side of the ball.
00:11:20
And so, you know, we you know, we just have we have, you know, fans and listeners that look at the box score in the same Wait a minute.
00:11:25
I only had four tackles and does He stink now, you know.
00:11:28
And so that makes it.
00:11:30
You know, this is why it's important that we we gather and and and help these listeners figure out like, No, there's nothing wrong with Devon White.
00:11:37
And trust me, if you if you throw them on the if you throw them out the waiver wire this week and he has 12 tackles in the sack next week, you're gonna you're gonna you're gonna beat yourself up, so just you have to ride those waves.
00:11:48
It happens on the offense and

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