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Podcast

The Fighter & The Analyst

A Combat Sports Betting Podcast

The Fight Analyst@TheFightAnalyst

GK The Fight Analyst and "The Joker" Peter Petties breaks down and previews UFC fight cards from an analytical and betting standpoint. They also give out betting advice for you all to make a TON of money!

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Description

GK The Fight Analyst and "The Joker" Peter Petties recap UFC Vegas 18, break down and preview UFC 258 from a betting standpoint to make you all a TON of money!

Transcript

00:00:01
Welcome back to another episode of the fighter and the ****yst.
00:00:05
I'm your host, g k the fight ****yst.
00:00:07
And this here is my man, the Joker himself.
00:00:09
Peter Pettis.
00:00:11
What's up, man? How's it going? Life is good. I cannot complain.
00:00:15
Can't complain it off.
00:00:17
Yes, sir.
00:00:18
I mean, we were talking before.
00:00:21
You are eating so **** clean.
00:00:24
Um, I wanna know how that journey is going.
00:00:28
What's new? How's How's the fighting life, man? Oh, my life is good, man.
00:00:34
You know, I am on George lockers.
00:00:36
Diet full fledge.
00:00:38
I did this cleanse.
00:00:40
Not even claims I want to say.
00:00:42
I always said when I turned 30 January 1st back in December that I would get clean.
00:00:48
It just so happened that I got fat because of quarantine in surgery, right before turning 30.
00:00:53
So I made a big marker at January 1st.
00:00:56
That look I'm gonna clean up my diet and not no longer be fueled off the Taco Bell at these training sessions and really see what happens.
00:01:04
And it has paid dividends.
00:01:05
Um, if any of you guys follow me, you'll see my transformation Onley after 30 days.
00:01:11
Wait until I posted 60 days is actually very scary.
00:01:15
Um, yeah.
00:01:16
No, George Locker. It's planned. I knew Israel.
00:01:18
I really only would use it when it's time to cut. Wait for Frank.
00:01:22
And But I made a full fledge.
00:01:24
I'm gonna eat healthy and just see what happens.
00:01:26
And I feel like, man, I feel like I feel like I'm on steroids just eating clean, which is very scary.
00:01:32
Um, my body's been responding really well.
00:01:34
Not ex store in the morning, but yeah, I'm giving free publicity toe, George, but no.
00:01:40
Right now, I'm actually in the concept of working George building my own site the They'll be able to manage people and help people with their diets just cause I got so much positive feedback on my post.
00:01:52
So yeah, that's in the works.
00:01:53
Fight wise, just twiddling their phones and constantly checking my phone for any urgent text.
00:02:00
But, you know, right now the way I've been my cardio is great. I've inspiring.
00:02:05
Um, I'm really at that point and just dialed in like I could get a call to fight. Tomorrow.
00:02:11
I'll hop on a plane as long as they as long as it's possible, I could hop on a plane weigh in tomorrow too.
00:02:16
So, you know, I'm just saying, locked in.
00:02:18
I know a lot of sometimes, you know, opportunities come left and right.
00:02:22
But I'm ready for it.
00:02:23
If Dana was the call tomorrow or LF a was the call tomorrow for next week, I could make weight, and I'll beat the **** out of somebody.
00:02:30
And I'm ready to go for 25 minutes, but not a 15 minute 25.
00:02:35
So that's just how locked in I am right now.
00:02:37
But, yeah, it's been a good good for me.
00:02:40
So 2020 Great man, that's crazy that you're in such amazing shape.
00:02:45
They're ready to go for a 25 men to fight when you have even fought.
00:02:50
You know, since you're beautiful time, you know, being in surgery, you know and all.
00:02:55
And during Cove it all that **** going on.
00:02:58
So that's that's just insane.
00:03:01
Looking forward to when you actually get back in there, you're talking about maybe possibly taking even a step further down the weight, the weight class line and maybe going a little bit lower.
00:03:16
Could you talk about that? May be happening.
00:03:19
Eso normally, like I said, when I was on a crappy die, but walk pretty high for the 45 limit.
00:03:27
However, after cleaning up my diet, it's been my body's been responding to it really well.
00:03:33
So I'm walking a 1 65 now, as opposed to walking at 1 80 just eating clean and cutting out all the PS.
00:03:40
So you know, the way I look at it is if I continue to gradually dropped just eating, not really doing any cuts or anything, but gradually, jocks was eating clean.
00:03:50
Why not test the waters at 1 35? Cut the 1 35? I think I'll be.
00:03:55
Actually, I don't think I know I would be on the upper echelon off body size wise.
00:04:01
And, you know, I think right now the one thing I was trying to tell people is whenever you're fighting, especially as a professional fighter, all of these fights are against world class opponents.
00:04:12
And I'm not saying like even on the regional saying, But each one is to get to that title.
00:04:17
And, you know, um, there's only 1%.
00:04:20
I would say maybe it's less than 1% that taste the major organization molds and what I mean, by that bell it or, you know, pfl, UFC um is there one of one? Well, im one into their also, this only 1% of the professional m m.
00:04:38
A fighter that ever touches one of those belts.
00:04:41
So, you know, as a professional and having high standards for myself, I always believe you gotta push your body if you only have a limited time to chase this dream before it's over.
00:04:51
So if you're not pushing yourself to the maximum potential, then what are you doing? So if I could make 35 healthy, um, clean and I feel good, then you know that's one of those things I'm gonna push for.
00:05:04
Possibly a swell, but we'll see how my body reacts on.
00:05:06
We'll see on a check it in March how I look and how I feel.
00:05:11
I want to see that man that's just a month away.
00:05:14
So I'm excited to see the transformation and, uh, you know, see where you're at.
00:05:18
That would be kind of dope to see go down in 1 35 cause I know you'll be cracking some draws.
00:05:23
You were cracking Jaws at 1.
00:05:24
45 I can only imagine the kind of power you can possess at £135.
00:05:29
So that's gonna be a ah, sight to see.
00:05:32
And I know people aren't gonna wanna just fight you at any given moment at £135.
00:05:39
So that's gonna be it's gonna be interesting Journey.
00:05:41
And I'm looking forward to see what happens in the future.
00:05:44
And you can finally get a **** fight.
00:05:46
You know, we dope if you could get a fight down here and we can chop it up, get actual live podcast going on.
00:05:55
But when it comes, it comes.
00:05:58
But let's recap UFC Vegas 18 Let's start at the top.
00:06:05
The main event.
00:06:06
Call that perfectly, absolutely, perfectly Alexander Volkov Absolutely getting Alistair Overeem.
00:06:17
And it sucks because I didn't want to see you know over him go out like that.
00:06:20
But, you know, that's exactly what I saw happening.
00:06:23
I mean, I don't see how people thought that over him was gonna come in there where the Grapple heavy game plan and when the fight.
00:06:31
I mean, that's just not overcomes game and invoke all goes in there and, uh, does quick work like It was quick.
00:06:39
It was in within two rounds.
00:06:41
He could've finished in the first round.
00:06:42
But, uh, now what do you think about that one? No, I think we're both on Boko.
00:06:47
Heavy.
00:06:48
As I said before having knowledge there in the fight against the Brazilian.
00:06:52
I knew, though he won that I was like, whoever he fights next I am fading.
00:06:58
And e, I was like, Yes, this is the bet Too big.
00:07:04
Um, you hate to see anyone like that.
00:07:06
My coach is one of my weight.
00:07:08
I coaches tomorrow.
00:07:09
He has, like, a very insight.
00:07:11
Um, he breaks down a lot of fights.
00:07:13
The one thing that he said about is Alistair over him.
00:07:16
He's one of those.
00:07:17
He looked like a guy who was trying to remember what he used to dio and what I mean by that it's kind of like sharpening the sword.
00:07:24
We have this ****ogy where you always want to keep sharpen your sword.
00:07:28
You always want to get sharp whether you're in training camp, where no matter where you are, never stopped doing the basics.
00:07:33
And I like to just look like he when he went to Jackson's You can see his moist eyes.
00:07:38
Kickboxing started s so the point where you know, credentials not do **** if you know, if you're not, um, constantly working on him.
00:07:49
You know, though, those basics go out the window.
00:07:51
And that's what he looked like.
00:07:52
You know, he was winging over hands, didn't have no riel technical set up.
00:07:57
He wasn't looking like he was trying to set up the body kick or anything.
00:08:01
It was You hate to see someone who is such a practitioner at that point.
00:08:07
I understand.
00:08:08
And it's the m m. A math.
00:08:10
It's hard, man, because you have to train so much to be at high level that if you switch your training camps so many times, Alex Street, um, you just become a hodgepodge of E you just become a m m a fighter.
00:08:25
You know what I mean? I think the classify it like that, but what I mean by M m a fighter is the guy who is not really good at anything, who's just kind of **** yet striking or I should say, kind of okay, striking, kind of Okay, Grappling kind of okay everywhere.
00:08:42
But he's not rates anywhere, you know, and that's that's what I feel like we got with Alistair and you hate to see it.
00:08:48
You know, it's just one of those things where he wanted to learn the game so much that he got away from what his bread and butter looks.
00:08:55
And you could see it in that fight for sure.
00:08:58
It was crazy because I've never seen over room just go like this and not I've never seen just total up when someone's don't get him, like at all.
00:09:07
That was the most bizarre thing I've seen yet out of him.
00:09:11
I mean, he was a world class kickboxer, K one champion, and his striking just fell off.
00:09:20
And I was I was telling people that I'm like he's not the same fighter he was.
00:09:24
I mean, arguably, he's like, 40 42 years old.
00:09:27
That's gonna happen.
00:09:28
But I mean, like, his striking, just like doesn't look anything remotely close to what it used to look like. Like at all.
00:09:34
Like I've never seen him strike like that.
00:09:36
I've never seen Turtle up when someone strong punches straight at him.
00:09:40
He wasn't firing back.
00:09:42
Vocal was just literally able to do whatever he wanted to do any given point in that fight and try to tell.
00:09:50
We try to tell everybody not to, not to take the bait on over him and not to fall for, you know, his 44 winds and five fights because he hasn't look, he did not look good in either of those winds.
00:10:04
Let's be honest, but you know, Win's a win.
00:10:07
But you know, then he faces someone like Volkov and absolutely get starched.
00:10:11
But And then we come to the co main event when we come to Cory San Hagen and Frankie Egger Whole Lee ****.
00:10:22
Yeah.
00:10:23
Ah, 32nd flying knee starch ing.
00:10:27
That was incredible.
00:10:30
And then from what I just read today, Frankie had no idea what happened after that fight.
00:10:35
He didn't even know where he was.
00:10:38
He said he didn't know he was fighting.
00:10:41
He didn't know who he fought.
00:10:43
He didn't know that.
00:10:44
He didn't know how long he trained for this for that fight.
00:10:47
It would.
00:10:48
That's how bad of a knockout that was.
00:10:51
I mean, you don't want to see that happen to anybody, especially a Hall of Famer and somebody that I was been a fan of for years and years of watching the sport to go face plant the way he did it was it was frightening to see, you know, grateful Corey San Hagen.
00:11:08
The dudes next up for the title shot.
00:11:09
I don't care who wins, whether it's Al Joe or or yon, He deserves a title shot, but yeah, yeah.
00:11:18
Do you think about that one e Because I know you wanna Frankie there? Yeah.
00:11:24
You hate to see a legend go out like that.
00:11:26
I was on Frankie, but I didn't go.
00:11:28
Just engage you crazy.
00:11:30
I should say I did not go.
00:11:32
Uh, I just put a small little $10 bet on my man franking, but outside of that, you hate to see it.
00:11:40
I thought he presented some challenges in the worst part about it is he still does.
00:11:45
I still would take that bet any day because at that point, you just got caught.
00:11:50
Like if you say it's almost like Jorge and been asked.
00:11:56
Right? Right, right.
00:11:57
You just gotta talk it up.
00:11:59
Like what? Would you How do you stop that in that moment? You know what I mean? So at that point in Frankie's game, he dips down.
00:12:09
I just did it to early man.
00:12:10
You got to give it from a m. M.
00:12:12
A standpoint.
00:12:13
You gotta get some faints, you know? And it just looked like Frankie went San Hagen just jumped and boom, You can't script it much better shout out different sand, Hagen, You know you.
00:12:23
He's looking like he's next in line.
00:12:25
Hopefully has improved his wrestling.
00:12:27
Like he said, he wanted to show it, but hey, you walk off their gautrain.
00:12:31
Hopefully is eating good right now.
00:12:33
Just what? Ready to watch the title fight, you know? Yeah, he's actually down here, uh, cornering Mohammed Nemov for his head.
00:12:43
The weight championship at Titan.
00:12:44
So I'm sure he is still getting in work with his guys, you know, Cursed Blade.
00:12:50
Still in training camp.
00:12:51
Nemov was in training camp for this fight.
00:12:53
So, um, judo uber has a fight coming up a swell.
00:12:58
So they got a lot of killers, you know, with fights coming up some, um I'm assuming he's helping them out.
00:13:06
So keep it in shape, wrestling and that.
00:13:08
But Sky's the limit for him, and I really want to see him get ah, title shot next because I think he deserves it.
00:13:16
I mean, we all we saw such little of him against Al Joe.
00:13:20
I think it would be a completely different fight if they were to fight again.
00:13:24
Um, especially on the feet.
00:13:26
It's I want to see that fight again or against yon. Either one.
00:13:30
I don't care. I want to see him fight.
00:13:32
Either one of those two on bit's gonna be a good fight.
00:13:35
But let's get to this breakdown, because I know it's a little late over here on the East Coast, so let's just jump right into the to the breakdown for this weekend's card.
00:13:45
Uh, let me get to it.
00:13:48
I gotta get I gotta pull up the lines and all that good stuff, okay? Don't mind me.
00:13:58
All right? So our our first fight up is a fight in a woman's flyweight division between Julian Robertson and Miranda Maverick, and the line is worth, uh, okay, e don't have all this.
00:14:14
I set up my bed.
00:14:15
All right, everybody All right.
00:14:17
So the line is set at minus 1 45 favorite for Maverick and Robertson's A plus 1 35.
00:14:26
Underdog, what you got So This is one of those fights where it's very tough.
00:14:33
Miranda is a local from here.
00:14:35
I met her a few times.
00:14:36
Um, impressed with her. You have to debut.
00:14:40
Um, she does a good job of applying her elbows, knees and quench.
00:14:44
She's a big girl.
00:14:46
I feel like for that weight classes.
00:14:47
Well, um, however, Julian, I mean, it's one of those that I feel like it's really realistically the old school stylistic grapple Everest a striker.
00:14:58
Um, Gillian striking isn't horrible, though.
00:15:00
So it then gets the point where it is.
00:15:05
Julian gonna be able to get Miranda down? I think so.
00:15:08
Is Gillian gonna be able to hold her now? I believe so.
00:15:11
And we're getting Julian out of underdogs.
00:15:13
So, you know, I'm pretty sure I'm on Julian in this one.
00:15:18
Um I still think it's a toss up, right? It could go either way.
00:15:22
I'm may honestly wait for the live that on this just to see how the first round goes.
00:15:28
But I am leaning towards Gillian just off Miranda's past performances.
00:15:34
I wasn't impressed with her pre UFC game, but she's looked good and, um, during their stints in the UFC.
00:15:41
So You know, it's one of those things I know.
00:15:43
Jillions of gamer.
00:15:45
Um, even her last fight, she fought all three rounds through, um, some ****, You know what I mean? But I don't think Miranda is gonna have that same type of game.
00:15:55
And if Miranda tries to set up comfortably, I think Gillian sneaks in on a single, gets her down, stays on top, and it could be a gritty few rounds.
00:16:06
But I have thio.
00:16:07
I'm going with Gillian, and I made, Like I said, I don't know if I'm gonna go out, um, in the beginning.
00:16:13
But I may just wait for the live and then see how the first minute goes as soon as she scores a takedown book.
00:16:18
And so, you know, I got I got thio.
00:16:21
Yeah, That seems like a good, live betting scenario here.
00:16:25
Just I just have a salty taste in my mouth.
00:16:29
After that last performance by Gillian, her wrestling didn't look up to par whatsoever.
00:16:35
Her technique is I mean, against girls that air just stronger than her.
00:16:40
They will beat her, I think nine out of 10, because she can't muscle anybody down.
00:16:46
She's not strong enough to muscle anybody down.
00:16:48
We've seen it against Tyler Santos, that Santos.
00:16:52
She doesn't have great takedown defense.
00:16:53
She just was stronger.
00:16:55
She was just a bigger girl.
00:16:58
She was a bigger female, and she's just stronger.
00:17:01
Um, and Gillian really needs to use her strength in order to take the fights on the mat on.
00:17:09
If Miranda is stronger than her, which I think she is, they should be able to defend the take downs.
00:17:15
And And if she decides to take that, she went comfortably.
00:17:19
I mean, Chile has nothing on the feet for Miranda at all whatsoever.
00:17:24
I mean, her striking is next.
00:17:26
Thio like, so par at best.
00:17:29
And she's not gonna be Miranda and a striking match whatsoever.
00:17:32
Eso Gillian Legit needs to get this fight in Matt like she always does.
00:17:37
Uh, it's gonna be interested to see if she can get it there.
00:17:41
But you know, the odds makers are given, it's it's crazy that they're giving Miranda Maverick as a favorite.
00:17:49
They think very, very highly of her coming into her on the second UFC fight.
00:17:55
And I guess it's because she cashed in as a big favor in her last fight.
00:18:00
uh, in the first round, as with a t k o.
00:18:03
In.
00:18:06
So it's not a fight I wanna bet on because it's just just a really close fighting.
00:18:10
And I still don't know who's gonna implement.
00:18:13
They're getting playing the best, you know.
00:18:15
So live betting would be a good scenario here, but if I'm taking someone side wise, I would take Miranda Maverick just because I just don't think Gillian is just gonna be ableto muscle her down and keep her there, I think I think Miranda Mavericks grappling is good enough to keep it on the feet or to be able to get on top, because if she's able to land on top Gillian, she can't do anything from the bottom.
00:18:39
She's been overworked when she's on the bottom.
00:18:42
She goes for arm bars, and as long as you just defend the arm bars, you should easily beat Gillian on top.
00:18:50
That's pretty much how our ghost alright, so next up we have a fight at £170 between Gabe Green and Phil Roe.
00:18:59
Gabe Green is a minus 1 22 favorite, and the comeback on Phil Roe is a plus 1 12 underdog.
00:19:07
Who you got? Oh, man.
00:19:09
My boy filled room.
00:19:11
I honestly fresh prince.
00:19:14
That's what we call him.
00:19:15
You know, he actually used to go to school in West Virginia, and he would travel with Lloyds when he was an amateur.
00:19:22
Like, literally just put on, come down and take his likings man, he would take his licking.
00:19:28
I can say, if you ever follow him on Facebook.
00:19:31
He has one story about one of our professional fighters who just grappled and beat the crap out of him.
00:19:36
And I'm a man on how he just plans to punch him in the face.
00:19:40
God plans.
00:19:41
He dreams of getting him back.
00:19:43
I think I'm the dude has retired now.
00:19:45
But, man, no, Bill.
00:19:47
You know, it's one of those things where you love to see somebody stick to the grind, go through it, go through all the losses and just make it come out on top.
00:19:56
I thought he had a really good contender.
00:19:58
Serious fight against Sebastian's brother.
00:20:00
Um uh, he's a long guy, you know, I don't I don't know much about gave green, So I will put the Asterix that this is a personal bet, but if I have to break it down from knowing Phil and, um not knowing the other dude feels just physically huge for that weight class.
00:20:21
I think he might.
00:20:22
65 Hey, has a long reach.
00:20:26
Think he's close to John Jones? Reach at, like, 80 inches at 1 70 s.
00:20:31
Oh, he's just a physically big guy.
00:20:33
He's an athlete, used to play basketball.
00:20:35
Um, and one thing I think people forget is he trains that he moved and he trains down and excel.
00:20:42
Confusion, excel.
00:20:44
And it's a weird I always make a little joke because we're like, How the hell is still training with adult with the air? E.
00:20:51
I mean, like, randomly and then, you know, you think about when Mike Perry was on his winning streak.
00:20:55
He was down there with him at Fusion.
00:20:58
Exhale.
00:20:59
I think there's one coach operate to chop it.
00:21:00
Raised ****ing there.
00:21:02
You're like, how the **** does this small gym have so many black? You know, just random as good grapplers.
00:21:07
Andi.
00:21:08
Yeah, I think, um, still has the length wise.
00:21:12
And I could say if it gets into the ground, gave greens on getting up, man s so I think you got a nice little dog.
00:21:19
Hair doesn't hurt to play the dog I don't know much about gave green, so I like I said, I'm giving you guys the aspirate, But think Phil Rose a good player.
00:21:27
Yeah, I'm I'm actually leaning towards Rodas.
00:21:31
Well, um, obviously has a massive height and reach advantage.
00:21:36
He's, I think, 55 inches taller with, like, I think about eight inch reach advantage as well.
00:21:44
He's 63 gave greens five for 10.
00:21:47
I forgot the reach of the actual reaches, but I know he's got, like, a like an 80 inch reach advantage.
00:21:53
He's massively huge, gave greens a former lightweight.
00:21:58
That's now, you know, a welterweight.
00:22:01
But Gabourey looked really, really good on short notice against Daniel Rodriguez.
00:22:06
He went tooth and nail for 15 minutes against the Rod.
00:22:10
It was very, very impressive.
00:22:12
He's got some really, really hard leg kicks, so he's gonna hit the lead leg of Phil Roe extensively in this fight.
00:22:22
Definitely, uh, he's got some power in his punches on he's really quick and has been movement on the feet.
00:22:29
He landed.
00:22:31
I don't know.
00:22:32
I think about over 130 strikes against De Rada's Well, so they kind of just went to war.
00:22:36
So, dude, super tough.
00:22:38
But I do think Phil role will be able to use his reach advantage.
00:22:43
I do think he'll be able Thio use his grappling advantage here, and I do think he'll be able to land the take downs.
00:22:49
And I do think he might get the submission I plus 6 50.
00:22:52
I do think that's a viable away for him to win.
00:22:56
Um, I believe he took down lean Leon Shahbazi in and beat him up.
00:23:04
And if you could take down Shahbazi and who's, ah, pretty good? Uh, I m m a fighter and grappler much bigger than gave Green as well.
00:23:12
I think he could take down the smaller, gave Green and, uh, actually submit him.
00:23:17
And I know he's definitely the better wrestler.
00:23:19
Without a doubt, it's just whether or not he's actually going to use it.
00:23:22
I hope he does, because if he does, I think he wins.
00:23:24
Uh ah, lot easier than he would trying to out.
00:23:29
Strike gave Green, so I'm actually taking the dog here on Phil Road as well.
00:23:35
Things could be good fight.
00:23:36
I think it's definitely gonna be a good scrap.
00:23:38
Alright, so next up, we gotta fight.
00:23:41
Well, that's not the next fight, because that fights now on the main card.
00:23:46
So the next fight would be a fight at a catch weight of £140 between Andre You'll and Chris Gutierrez.
00:23:54
Gutierrez is a minus 1 32 favorite and they come back on Andre.
00:23:59
You'll plus 1 22 Underdog, who you got? I think this is a very weird fight because isn't Andre You'll once and he's supposed to originally be on the card He under you was supposed to fight Cody standing last weekend.
00:24:14
Uh, but he got a false positive result for his covert test.
00:24:20
Eso Now, here he is now at a catch weight.
00:24:22
Ah, £140 against Gutierrez.
00:24:25
Who's taking this fight on, I don't know.
00:24:27
Four or five days notice.
00:24:28
Yeah, so it's a tough one.
00:24:31
I think the weird thing about this cards I feel like there's a bunch of value.
00:24:35
If you could just pick the right guy.
00:24:38
You know, you could just you zone in on thes pics on, but I think that a lot of the fights are very evenly matched.
00:24:49
And with that said, it's like for me.
00:24:52
I really just wanna live.
00:24:54
Bet this whole hard Honestly, because I'm like, I'm like, the majority of this card.
00:24:59
I really am because a lot of it is like they're so evenly matched.
00:25:04
And there's so many variables that you're like, Alright, let me just see what this first round looks like.
00:25:10
And then you can almost kind of pick up when you see who is going to be able to implement their game.
00:25:15
I mean this matchup.
00:25:17
I've never really been a big fan of Andre you'll because all of his fights are so close for some reason and even some of the win, but he wins them.
00:25:27
Yeah, I know.
00:25:28
But even then I feel like the **** is gonna run out soon.
00:25:32
Because that's the question it will when I get a watch.
00:25:37
That Yeah, you know, it's one of those.
00:25:42
If I had to choose, I'm probably going critical, dear.
00:25:46
Just because, But yeah, I'm probably a lot of it in this one.
00:25:51
Yeah, I'm actually going to take a chance on Andre year old to win a decision at plus 2 40.
00:25:58
Just because he wins close fights, he wins.
00:26:02
He the judge is like the way he fights because he's come forward.
00:26:07
He throws head strikes.
00:26:09
He doesn't throw leg kicks.
00:26:10
So if those Gutierrez leg kicks calf kicks, don't buckle the knee of of you'll.
00:26:18
Those aren't going to really hold up well on the Judgesscorecards.
00:26:21
They're not going to give a ****.
00:26:23
They want to see you punched a dude in the face, and that's what you'll does.
00:26:27
He's got an eight inch reach advantage in this fight. Ondas.
00:26:32
Long as he keeps this fight within boxing range, and he comes forward and uses that jab, I think he should be able to win a decision, and it sounds like you'll doesn't face like cakes.
00:26:43
I mean, he faces a ton of leg kicks every single fight, at least on average, of 15 to 20 leg kicks, every single fight he faces.
00:26:51
Granted, Gutierrez so is about 30 or 40 but the dude does take a ton of damage on his leg, so he knows.
00:26:59
I think his legs are kind of condition that at this point, because they know he's tall, he's lanky.
00:27:04
Hey, uses a big wide stance.
00:27:07
So it's kick the lead leg and kick the lead leg so he cannot come forward anymore.
00:27:11
But, um plus, he had a full camp for this fight.
00:27:16
Haye was definitely getting ready to get to get to go against a much better fighter.
00:27:21
And Cody statement.
00:27:22
He doesn't have to worry about wrestling, and now he gets to go out there and strike with the guy that doesn't hasn't had any time to really prepare for him while he's just going to go in there and do his thing.
00:27:33
So I'm taking a shot, Andre, You'll, I think, is gonna be a close fight.
00:27:38
And Andre, you'll winds close fights.
00:27:40
He's won every single split decision in his UFC career, so I like a guy that wins split decisions.
00:27:47
That's really good.
00:27:48
I don't like guys that lose put decisions, so I'm taking.
00:27:52
I'm taking a shot on Andre.
00:27:54
You'll to win a decision that plus 2 40 it's not anything crazy.
00:27:58
I just think there's some value there, uh, to throw, ah, a couple of bucks on nothing, nothing outstanding.
00:28:05
All right, next up we have a fight and the woman's straw weight division between Malaury Martin and pulling on a Vienna um, Martin's of minus 1 35 favorite and Pollyanna is a plus 1 25 100 dog.
00:28:23
Who do you got? No, man.
00:28:25
It's another one of those reds.
00:28:27
Like, uh, I don't know which side. Toe Lynn.
00:28:30
I kind of favor of the dog a little bit.
00:28:34
And Pollyanna, just because And I only favorite just because I'm not really sold on Malaury Martin, Um, it's a tough one, man.
00:28:43
It's a coin foot.
00:28:44
But I'm gonna go with I had to play.
00:28:47
I'm going Polyana just, uh But it's another one of those where I'm gonna watch the fresh round and maybe live.
00:28:53
Bet you know, $5000.
00:28:55
A lot of betting tomorrow. I'll be great.
00:28:58
Yeah, I don't know.
00:28:59
I'm definitely gonna stay away from this fight like I've said on numerous, numerous occasions.
00:29:04
Stay away from low level women's fights just like the first fight on the card.
00:29:09
Um, that's a low level women's fight.
00:29:12
This is a low level women's fight.
00:29:14
But if I had to choose, I would probably take million Martin, because I just think she's a better grappler.
00:29:19
She definitely fights on the better camp and a team elevation.
00:29:22
So she's got the better cardio as well.
00:29:24
Uh, Pollyanna definitely might be the better striker.
00:29:28
You know, we've seen Martin get dropped by hand of Cyprus was just never a good sign, But she fought through the adversity.
00:29:35
She came back.
00:29:36
Got the submission around too.
00:29:38
Eso you know, he's She's tough.
00:29:40
She stuff his nails.
00:29:41
She's got good grappling training or elevation.
00:29:43
She's got cardio, so I'm just gonna take I'm siding with Martin here.
00:29:48
It's definitely not if I'm betting on, though.
00:29:51
All right, Next up, we have a fight at £185 between Adolfo Vieira and Anthony Hernandez.
00:29:58
Um, right now the line is set at get something crazy.
00:30:05
Minus 400 for Rodolfo And Hernandez is a plus.
00:30:09
3 25 100 dog.
00:30:11
God****.
00:30:12
Well, rightfully so, right? Yeah.
00:30:16
I was hoping at least minus 400 but it is nice.
00:30:21
400.
00:30:22
Oh, I thought you said minus 1200.
00:30:24
I don't know what.
00:30:25
No, no, it's minus 400. Okay.
00:30:27
Okay.
00:30:28
I thought I heard 1200 god**** heard those odds and made for a while.
00:30:32
E can't remember the last time maybe Valentina.
00:30:36
I think Valentina was the last time. Yeah, she was.
00:30:39
She was the last one that was like my 1st 1000, I think, or something crazy like that, man, But alright, minus 400.
00:30:45
I'm all on video.
00:30:48
E.
00:30:49
I don't think there's any other way, Ugo unless there.
00:30:53
But this is one of those fights where everybody is on her doll ful and Hernandez clips him and we're like, What the ****? But but the thing is, if he clips him, it's It's like no one could have saw that happening.
00:31:08
Reason like you can't you can't even like you can't even cap that.
00:31:12
The reason because I mean Hernandez on.
00:31:15
Lee has two knockouts in his entire Emery career, not just professionally and amateur.
00:31:21
He only has two knockouts, so he that's not high.
00:31:25
Winds fights majority of time.
00:31:26
He's winning fights, it's by guillotine chokes.
00:31:30
So it's like he going, he's going for submissions.
00:31:33
He's not getting knockout, so I don't see him having the power for, you know, to stop Adolfo just from coming forward and taking him down.
00:31:43
I mean, he's massively bigger than the dude looks like.
00:31:45
He should be fighting a 205 I don't know how he makes 1 85.
00:31:49
And then you look at the Hernandez versus Marcus Perez, right? That's the only fight.
00:31:53
Or Hernandez had to defend to take down.
00:31:56
He got taken down, and then he got sucked.
00:31:58
That's the only that's only fight.
00:32:00
So the moment this fight hits the mat, he's getting subbed.
00:32:03
So I mean, I don't see how I mean, you know anything can happen.
00:32:07
It's mm, A.
00:32:08
But I'm all over the awful here. I'm on him.
00:32:11
Heavy, actually.
00:32:13
Yeah, I don't see.
00:32:14
I don't see what else we could really do there.
00:32:17
All right.
00:32:18
Next up, we have a fight at £170 between Balon Mohammed and Diego Lima.
00:32:23
Mohamed's a minus 4 75 favorite, and Lima is a plus for 20.
00:32:29
Underdog.
00:32:30
Who you got? That's my boy.
00:32:32
Blah Mohammed, man.
00:32:34
Heavy on him.
00:32:35
And that one, Um, he's just a workhorse man, you know.
00:32:38
Thanks for anyone who calls out.
00:32:41
I think it was probably one of the best boss moves I was on him before, But for anyone that calls outlining good and then gets the job done against him, You know, that's a big balls right there.
00:32:51
Uh, you know, Lining goods.
00:32:53
A physical specimen, not the one guy.
00:32:57
He had the bar fight anyone, and I mean, good sitting in there.
00:32:59
I don't think anybody would choose lying and good.
00:33:01
So go out there and then, you know, fighting three round decision again.
00:33:07
So I think he might have got opened up, you know, fought through that.
00:33:10
Got the job.
00:33:11
I think blah Muhammed has all the skill sets to go far in the weight class.
00:33:14
Um, once he puts it together on the right night, you know what I mean? And yeah, Big uncle on this one, it's one of my strongest fastest.
00:33:22
Yeah, absolutely.
00:33:23
I mean, I slammed below Mohammed at minus 3.
00:33:27
30 Monday morning.
00:33:29
The moment I heard that he's on this card.
00:33:32
I was looking.
00:33:33
I'm like I was scrambling looking for my book.
00:33:35
I'm like, which one has it? Which one hasn't None of them had it yet.
00:33:37
So then I just kept refreshing, refreshing, and finally popped up minus 3.
00:33:41
30.
00:33:42
I'm like, submit, submit, submit.
00:33:44
I mean, because I mean, this is arguably one of the easiest fights of his career.
00:33:49
This is massive, stepped down in competition, might I add, And I'm so befuddled as to why the hell he's fighting.
00:33:56
He's not finding someone in the top 15.
00:33:59
I mean, the dude is going to be a top 10 fighter eventually.
00:34:02
Eventually, he's It's just it's gonna happen.
00:34:05
He should already be there.
00:34:07
But you know, it is what it is.
00:34:09
He's got to get through Lima first, and then he'll finally get his crack in the top.
00:34:12
Top 10, Top 15.
00:34:14
But the dude is He's the real deal.
00:34:17
He's actually He's really, really good.
00:34:20
He's He fights extremely smart.
00:34:22
He knows his opponent's weaknesses.
00:34:24
That's that's the thing.
00:34:25
He knows where everybody's bad at.
00:34:28
Like he knows Lyman Good can't grapple.
00:34:30
He goes and grapples him.
00:34:32
He knows Takashi Sato can't grapple.
00:34:34
He goes and grapples him.
00:34:36
He's so so smart.
00:34:38
You know, not a lot of these guys really study their opponents like Bolado, so I think the sky's the limit for him.
00:34:45
I think he's going to be Ah potential threat at £170 because he's really strong and he's literally, really good everywhere.
00:34:54
He's a very, very well rounded fighter and uh, I really hope to see him just kind of surge from here because I don't wanna keep seeing him fight on rank fighters and get a minus 4 75 ****ing money line.
00:35:09
Because, uh, e don't like betting on so much juice like that, Man, I don't I can't.
00:35:17
I can't anymore for that **** juice. Alright.
00:35:21
What? What's the next way? The next fight up is a fight At £185.
00:35:27
It's the first fight on the main card between Julian Marquez and Maki Bartolo.
00:35:33
Right now, Marquez is a minus 1 65 favorite, and patrol is a plus 1 50 underdog, who you got? Well, uh, if this is another chance, right, Because it's not Julian Marquez.
00:35:49
I feel like his biggest win is fill halls in the contender.
00:35:53
Um, outside of that, he hasn't really done anything impressive on.
00:35:58
Then he got maki e Think it be Darren Stuart to Hey didn't be ****ed.
00:36:03
What was that before Darren Stewart's run? Yeah, that was before.
00:36:07
Like I don't want to say you gotta renew their in Stuart like, compare it to, but yeah, no.
00:36:14
And then Maki, I feel like is like hit or miss also.
00:36:18
So you got to kind of hit or miss guys, and this is another live betting situation.
00:36:23
But I'm leaning and I have to choose.
00:36:25
I'm going with Julian Market just off his grappling what he showed me graphing wise.
00:36:33
So it's in that, Yeah, this is definitely not if I wanna bet on.
00:36:38
Especially because market is coming off 2.
00:36:40
5 year layoff.
00:36:42
He's had multiple back surgeries and then, you know, uh, cove it and multiple fight cancelations.
00:36:49
It's just one thing after another after another and what we've seen when fighters coming off over two years later off Santiago ponds and video, he got absolutely starched in his fight.
00:37:01
I don't want to be on the wrong and of ring rust whatsoever, So I'm saying, clear this fight.
00:37:08
I do think Marquez is more talented fighter.
00:37:10
He's, uh, definitely more well rounded fighter.
00:37:13
He is a much bigger fighters, a four inch heights advantage and a three inch reach advantage as well.
00:37:19
He's an actual natural £185 fighter.
00:37:22
Where's Maki is really a £170 fighter that just kind of moved upto 1 85 because he didn't want to cut the weight anymore.
00:37:30
Um, it's kind of a low level fight.
00:37:33
I kind of want to stay away, maybe live.
00:37:35
Bet if I see, um, you know, if we get a good line and I see a clear, clear winner of the two, but yeah, it's definitely want to stay far, far away from this fight.
00:37:46
I do think Marquez should pull it out.
00:37:49
I think he's got Mawr tools in the and the chest right there.
00:37:53
All right, the next fight is canceled, which was a fight between Bobby Green and Jim Miller.
00:37:59
Bobby Green? Yeah, because Bobby Green passed out in the back after the way cut.
00:38:06
****.
00:38:07
Yeah, He happened a few hours, like hours ago before, when they were getting ready to face off, he just collapsed.
00:38:18
So he had a really, really hard wake up from what I've seen on the scale.
00:38:22
So kinda kind of saw it coming.
00:38:24
But then again, he always has a rough wake up.
00:38:26
He always cuts a ton of weight.
00:38:28
We've seen it time and time again, and that's why I kind of slows down as the fights kind of progress.
00:38:33
Um, but either way, that was gonna be a tough fight for him.
00:38:37
Because he Jamila is a He's a gamer.
00:38:41
And, uh, and you know what Baba Green does his fighter like he was like, next to nothing.
00:38:48
He he just fights so bad.
00:38:50
Hey, could be dominating the whole fight and just give it away for just being stupid.
00:38:55
There's just Yep.
00:38:56
And I think my mother was a dog.
00:38:58
Yeah, it was a big dogs.
00:39:00
Plus 2, 10.
00:39:01
Yeah, that was gonna be a one of my favorite plays on the card.
00:39:05
Yeah, and I wouldn't put it past you like cashing that one? Because, like I said, Bob Greene loves to lose split decision.
00:39:13
He loves who's a split decision.
00:39:15
He loves his decisions.
00:39:16
Thes judges just don't like the way he fights.
00:39:19
And I I don't know if it's because he showboats or or what it is, but I can't trust Bobby Green ever again with my money.
00:39:25
He burned me and that Tiago Moses fight.
00:39:27
He's absolutely dominating on the feet.
00:39:29
And then he engages in grappling with with the jujitsu black belt.
00:39:32
Just ****.
00:39:33
It was just You want that? No, he definitely won the fight. He definitely won the fight.
00:39:37
But the thing is, he let Moyes's get control time when he didn't need to.
00:39:43
You need to engage in it in like he got reversed.
00:39:47
He took him down.
00:39:48
Why you taking him down? You're doubling up.
00:39:51
He doubled him up on streets in every single round.
00:39:54
Strikes, throwing and strikes landed.
00:39:56
Yeah, absolutely dominating on the feet.
00:39:59
And I don't I don't know.
00:40:00
I just can't place my bets on him anymore.
00:40:03
But the fight that took over that fight on the main car is a fight at a well, it's at £145 but these guys are normally Bandon weights between Ricky Simone and Brian Kelleher.
00:40:15
Right now, Simmons of Mice to 40 favorite.
00:40:18
And Kelleher is a plus 2 20 underdog.
00:40:21
I'm pretty sure I know who you're on because you know, you always been on this man.
00:40:26
But what do you got? Yes, sir.
00:40:29
I'm going, my boy.
00:40:31
The East Coast boy.
00:40:32
Brian Kelleher.
00:40:33
And that's what man I ride Kelleher.
00:40:36
I don't know why.
00:40:38
Maybe it's just East Coast vs West Coast all the time, but I am going Brian Kelleher to the moon and back.
00:40:46
Just somehow.
00:40:47
The oddsmakers don't like him, and I keep cashing on this.
00:40:51
So it has.
00:40:52
It did burn me a little bit on Steven's, right, But he stayed in there.
00:40:56
He was ready with him, You know what I mean? He fought his heart out, and we can I think we can agree on this one that Ricky Simone is not Cody Stamen.
00:41:03
Correct? Uh, yes, I do agree there.
00:41:07
I think Kurdistan was just, um how about a level? A little bit of a level above Simona at this given point of his career.
00:41:14
So, you know, for me, I like I like Kelly, man, he's a top dog dog.
00:41:19
You're never going to see him get dominated for three rounds.
00:41:23
I don't know if I don't trust Ricky Simmons.
00:41:26
Stand up enough.
00:41:27
I don't trust Ricky Simmons wrestling Enough.
00:41:29
I don't trust wrestling.
00:41:31
Why not? I mean, he's got So you got I trust you.
00:41:35
But Green Team man has that dynamite in his hands that I No, no, no.
00:41:42
He's got, He's got, He's got the power.
00:41:44
Definitely. Color has got the power he's got.
00:41:46
He's got the guillotine, but mean someone's got wrestling.
00:41:48
It's not like you can't trust the wrestling.
00:41:50
I'm not saying that.
00:41:51
What I'm saying is, if you're telling me you got Keller, who has to stand up advantage, I don't know about stand up advantage e.
00:42:02
He's got the power advantage.
00:42:05
Ricky Simmons stand up. Horrible.
00:42:07
No, it's not.
00:42:08
Come on, remember.
00:42:09
Please stand up is not horrible.
00:42:12
It's not horrible.
00:42:13
Just because just because he got clipped against your ire favorite doesn't mean it's horrible.
00:42:18
It was horrible before he got clipped by a favor, and I e is.
00:42:26
I called that on the right favor as well.
00:42:29
The dogs never here.
00:42:31
Uh, I'm just saying, Brian Color, if you guys want he is a dog tomorrow, I will.
00:42:39
I'm going right or die with this.
00:42:41
Actually, I'm not going to happy.
00:42:42
I'm just saying Brian Keller is my dog pick off tonight.
00:42:46
Tomorrow I feel if you take Kelleher, you might as well take him inside the distance because he's not a chance in hell.
00:42:53
He's winning.
00:42:54
A decision against work is alone, period, because Ricky Ricky Simone will be more active in the striking and he will be hunting for takedowns, and Kelleher has to be opportunistic, to knock him out or to smash that neck and submit him.
00:43:09
So if you're gonna bet on color, I feel you need to take him inside the distance because you're gonna get out much better line probably.
00:43:17
Plus, when is it actually let me see, Because if he if you take him to win inside the distance, it's got to be like, plus 400 inside the distance plus 3 75.
00:43:31
That's pretty **** good.
00:43:33
He wins majority of the time inside the distance.
00:43:36
Anyways, I don't remember the last time he won the decision.
00:43:38
Honestly, I don't remember.
00:43:40
Hey has a one in a decision in quite some time.
00:43:44
And like I said, a Simone is the more active striker.
00:43:47
He's the more active wrestler.
00:43:49
So if this does hit the judges, I do think Simone should edge it out over the course of 15 minute period.
00:43:55
Um, you know, im, But if I'm I'm not going to bet on the fight because I do like Ricky Simone.
00:44:02
But I don't like I don't like the line of minus 2 40.
00:44:05
If it was minus 1 80 where it was when it was first line.
00:44:09
When they were supposed to fight a few weeks ago, I definitely would have done it at minus 1 80 minus 24 He's a little bit of a steep jump.
00:44:17
I do like Simone by decision I minus 1 30 because that's normally the way he's gonna win.
00:44:21
He's not gonna think I submit color her like he did against the I forgot the dudes named the newcomer that he faced on Fight Island.
00:44:31
I don't I don't see that happening.
00:44:33
Um, I don't see him getting a knockout either.
00:44:35
So if he does win, it's going to be a decision, because Kelleher is super super tough.
00:44:39
So I got I got Simone to win a decision here.
00:44:42
But if you're betting on Kelleher, I do suggest taking him toe win inside the distance.
00:44:47
That plus 3 75.
00:44:48
I think that za great value on a guy that normally finishes his fights if he wins.
00:44:53
So, yeah, that's how I see it going.
00:44:57
All right, Next up, we have a fight at £185 between Ian hi Nish and Kelvin Gastelum.
00:45:08
Right now, Gasol, um is a minus 2 10 favorite and the comeback on Ian Highnesses plus 1 90 underdog.
00:45:14
Who do you got? I am all on Calvin gasoline on this one, man, really, I'm really interested to hear your take, because I really cannot.
00:45:24
I can't pick aside here.
00:45:25
I'm like, I'm really Tauron.
00:45:27
I don't know.
00:45:28
I don't know who's gonna win this fight.
00:45:29
Really? Why? I want to hear that because it's like Kevin got some just hasn't looked good.
00:45:38
And also you do like if you go down the resume of Calvin Gasam, he's beaten all over the hill, aged, not in their prime fighters.
00:45:50
He's not being a single fighter that's even remotely of the age of 18 Highness.
00:45:56
Sh.
00:45:57
Like every guy he's beaten, he's old like old, like they're not fighting the UFC anymore.
00:46:03
The only the only person that's like fighting the UFC is Jack Array Sousa, and that's it, like that's the only guy he's being like he's being, But I know he's a great competition, though, you know, he he he went tooth and nail Israel Adesanya.
00:46:18
He went 15 minutes with their until and then he fought like and then he fought like a dumb ass against Jack Hermanson.
00:46:24
e mean, but like, if you take that and then you go Ian Highness.
00:46:29
Yeah.
00:46:30
He has beaten anybody, either. Yeah, he has been anybody.
00:46:32
You compare those last three fights and you say arguably, you know, you take away that fifth round or so from Israel.
00:46:40
Arguably, Kelvin could be holding the title.
00:46:43
Um, you take You got a split decision against Darren.
00:46:47
Still that he lost.
00:46:48
I don't think that was a split that I think there were one of the judges.
00:46:52
I think that we can all three rounds of that fight.
00:46:54
I agree.
00:46:55
I'm just saying, In general, when we look at strength of schedule and his river and then, yeah, he felt like a dumb ass and gets Hill hooked by Jack Hermansen.
00:47:05
So I think those are three excuse losses, you know? So I'm all That's why I said I'm all on Kelvin.
00:47:13
And this one man, I think you take those three.
00:47:16
Are you telling me Ian Highness beats any of those three? No, exactly.
00:47:22
You let alone? Are you saying they had that he has better performances than Kelvin had against them? Are you saying his e like that against Israel, Ian Highness.
00:47:35
Israel goto war like that.
00:47:36
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
00:47:39
Not at all.
00:47:40
Not at all.
00:47:41
No, that's That's the only fight where, you know, Highness would get dented.
00:47:44
But I think he would have a better performance against Till and Hermansen than Kevin Gosselin did.
00:47:49
That's tough, man. It is.
00:47:51
I mean, as he did he look super flat in those two fights, but he looks traditional in that.
00:47:56
Is he fight? I agree.
00:47:58
I mean, but if I'm choosing, I'm going.
00:48:01
I'm not laying on Ian Highness in this.
00:48:04
No, I got you, but yeah, minus 2.
00:48:07
10 on Gasol.
00:48:09
Um, and, uh, plus 1 90 underdog on high nish. Yeah.
00:48:13
I mean, this is one of those I'm not like, Oh, Adolfo.
00:48:16
And the lower confident It's one of those room, like another live betting.
00:48:21
Maybe Highness has a great first round, and I'm, like, get in wallets even now, right? I'm just like from us from a technical standpoint.
00:48:32
How does Gasol, um, beat Highness? Um, you know, it's funny, because from a technical standpoint, I would never really impressed with Gasol.
00:48:44
E was never really impressed with me.
00:48:47
Just one of those guys where I was like Man, he just keeps winning somehow, you know, and that that's the hard part about this fight, though.
00:48:55
I'm really just bringing it down from strength of schedule.
00:48:57
So his performances on and his biggest fights, but at that point is a live bet for me.
00:49:04
I'm not saying that.
00:49:05
Lay the juice on him.
00:49:06
No, I guess you because, like I said, it's a It's a really hard fight for me to understand who's gonna win this fight because I really don't know, really.
00:49:16
It's a It's a tall so I really couldn't find ah, like, ah, winner of those two at all.
00:49:23
Like I'm just going over and going over and over over.
00:49:26
I'm like, **** who the **** wins this fight and I can't I couldn't figure it out.
00:49:31
I really I really can't.
00:49:32
I do like the over 2.
00:49:33
5 rounds, though I think it's that mind just like 2 45.
00:49:36
That's a decent uM, sometimes 2 50.
00:49:40
I don't think this fight gets finished.
00:49:42
I don't think any fire gets finished, but I don't know that's not I'm not even touching.
00:49:47
Let's just let's keep it moving to the co main event, which is, Ah, fight at Flyweight women's flyweight division between Alexa Grosso and Macy Barber.
00:49:57
Grasso is a minus 1 17 favorite and barbers a +107 Underdog.
00:50:03
Who do you got? We had another tough fight.
00:50:05
I think this is actually gonna be a really good one.
00:50:08
I think so, too.
00:50:10
I really like Macy.
00:50:12
Barbara.
00:50:13
I was on here pre UFC when I saw her in L f A.
00:50:17
And I was like, This girl is really good.
00:50:19
And, you know, I think the one thing that's gonna make this interesting is how she reacts.
00:50:25
Coming from the layoff in the surgery.
00:50:28
You know, um, that Roxanne loss.
00:50:30
And I think Alex, um, Alexa Grasso is going to be the girl that test that and is a good matchup.
00:50:36
This is like a really good match making fight.
00:50:39
Uh, from a standpoint, I'm heavy on Macy.
00:50:44
Barbara just because I really like her skill set.
00:50:48
Um, and I think she has the stand up to be any of those girls in that weight class.
00:50:54
She and I think she's just a really good, complete fighter.
00:50:57
She mixes up everything really well, but I think the big thing is going to be how she looks off that lay off off this surgery and, um, what Alexa is able to get away with.
00:51:09
But if I had toe take a bet, you're getting Macy Barbara at dog money.
00:51:13
I'm taking Macy Barbie, man.
00:51:17
I'm actually gonna take Alexa Grasso here.
00:51:20
I think she is the more technical striker, the better striker of the two.
00:51:26
Barber is definitely had them or heavy hands, but she's a brawler.
00:51:30
She's just coming forward and she's looking to knock your head off.
00:51:34
She also hasn't beaten anybody yet.
00:51:37
It's not a single person that she's beaten that looks across, so can't beat nothing like point blank.
00:51:43
Grasso has not lost a kickboxing mash just yet in her youth see career or her MME.
00:51:50
Career.
00:51:51
The only time she's ever lost the fight is when she's been taken down.
00:51:53
She got taken down by Philly's heroics.
00:51:55
She got taken down by Carlos Esparza, and I forgot the other girl's name.
00:52:02
Obviously, she's, uh, Tatiana Suarez.
00:52:04
Those air three losses, all of them took her down.
00:52:07
The recipes that she didn't get taken down, she won.
00:52:10
Oh, and even in the Carlos Faras the fight She was rocking us faras on the feet, rocking her.
00:52:17
She got she has some chicken legs at one point, um and you know, she actually did pretty well defending those takedowns from, for the most part.
00:52:26
But, you know, she you know, a Sfar direct ups, um, quality control time.
00:52:32
And they gave her the fight.
00:52:33
Uh, and cones Barber.
00:52:35
I don't know.
00:52:36
Barber is gonna If she were to go for the takedowns and land them, I think she could win.
00:52:41
But if she's gonna go in there and stand and strike with Alexa grow so I don't think she's gonna win this fight, I just don't.
00:52:47
I think Alexa Grasso is the more technical sound striker and should be able to out strike the less technical brawler in barber as long she doesn't get clipped on the feet.
00:52:59
I think I think she'd be She should have a field day striking at distance, but it's different and also had to take in the fact that a c l tear, the surgery, the layoff, the she's gonna be, you know, hesitant on the fee.
00:53:15
You know, the you don't know what's going on in her head during the fight on the The new repaired me.
00:53:22
So there's a lot of things to take into consideration.
00:53:26
And I know the public is definitely heavy on Barbara plus money.
00:53:29
So I don't like betting public underdogs, so we'll see how that goes.
00:53:34
E think it would be a great fight nonetheless, though.
00:53:39
All right, Next up is our main event of the evening, a fight that I've been waiting for between Camara Usman and Gilbert Burns for the welterweight championship of the world.
00:53:53
Right now, Usman's a minus 2 60 favor.
00:53:56
That's yes.
00:53:57
That means money has been coming in on burns and burns is a plus 2 40 $100.
00:54:02
What you got, man? Um, I think this site is one of those where you kind of want to just see who's able to implement their game.
00:54:12
Um, with that said I after careful deliberation, I am going with tomorrow's and then I'm going tomorrow.
00:54:22
This man and I think it's one of those set up fights where we're all like, Hey, Gilbert can submit him.
00:54:28
Gilbert can do this.
00:54:29
Gilbert can knock them out.
00:54:31
And at the end of the day, tomorrow and him have been training together for how many years? Tomorrow is the champ.
00:54:37
You have to give some.
00:54:38
Put some respect as much as you don't like his style.
00:54:41
I have to put some respect on tomorrow's name.
00:54:44
And, uh, you have a guy who, um, lost Thio. Dan Hooker.
00:54:48
You know that Finished by Dan Hooker was having a tough time at 55.
00:54:53
Yes, he comes up to 70 and a steamrolling certain guys, but some of it's just match up, man.
00:54:57
You know, I believe Gilbert.
00:54:59
Yes, technically, wise is good, but if you ever tell me, am I taking a high level wrestler or a high level? You did see a guy taking the high level rustler all day, every day, over the high level.
00:55:10
You did see a guy just because, as you saw in my previous right, going against jujitsu black Well, you know, honestly, I think wrestling is just way more applicable to the sport of mm a than you did too.
00:55:24
I'm not saying that wrestling will always trump digits.
00:55:27
You don't get me wrong.
00:55:28
What I'm saying is true.
00:55:29
Did Thio to really be applied? You need some type of clothing.
00:55:35
You know, that's what really makes a black belt and what makes things a little bit dangerous.
00:55:39
But if you take an average, a great black belt and Gilbert Burns and you're taking a great wrestler and tomorrow you know who's been in there with those guys and has trained with him So he knows his game, he knows what submission he's possibly looking for, and he's not going to give him that.
00:55:58
And I can probably almost guarantee you that, um, Gilbert hasn't developed any new submissions that he's like, I'm gonna catch tomorrow with this.
00:56:05
So, you know, I'm leaning.
00:56:07
I think this is a big set up line.
00:56:08
Ah, lot of people are gonna fall for the plus 2 50 on Gilbert.
00:56:12
Okay, if this dips to, like 200 maybe under 200 I might go.
00:56:18
Even I might break my my saying of discipline and add Camara went to a little parlay with had Alpha and below, so yeah, yeah, I mean, and it sucks because, like, my heart is with Gilbert because he's arguably one of my favorite fighters in the UFC.
00:56:37
Um, but I'm a betting man, and I have to take tomorrow.
00:56:43
Guzman here and he's gonna go down and was arguably one of the greatest welterweight fighters of all time.
00:56:49
On I said that long ago, I said that years ago.
00:56:54
I said it when he was on.
00:56:55
The ultimate fighter of the dude is the rial deal.
00:56:58
He's a monster at that weight class.
00:57:00
He's bigger than everybody else.
00:57:03
He's got the best wrestling in the entire division.
00:57:06
He's got very underrated striking.
00:57:10
He's long, his lanky.
00:57:12
He's got power and his fight i Q is top notch.
00:57:16
He's got cardio for days now.
00:57:19
He's training with Trevor Whitman, the absolute wizard coach over there.
00:57:24
Uh, he's got, um, or even more cardio training at altitude as well.
00:57:30
And then you look at uber Burns over time, right? Look at his career.
00:57:36
At 1 55 he was dominated by Michelle Pres heiress who just held him down on the mat and go but couldn't do anything about it.
00:57:46
I could see the same thing happening here.
00:57:48
I mean, tomorrow Usman has the second best control time in the entire UFC.
00:57:55
Next to could be.
00:57:57
I mean, he's that good.
00:57:58
And I know people don't like him because he's, you know, he may be boring at times, but he's dominant.
00:58:05
He's a dominant champion.
00:58:06
He's gonna be champion for a while, so you better get ****ing used to it.
00:58:11
The dude is really ****ing good.
00:58:13
He's really, really good.
00:58:15
And then I know people are saying that.
00:58:18
How Gilbert Burns could possibly get a submission off his back.
00:58:23
He hasn't had a submission off his back since 2015.
00:58:27
He's only got three submissions off his back in his UFC career.
00:58:32
He's not a best at B at Jiu Jitsu off his back.
00:58:38
He's best at your jitsu when he's on top.
00:58:41
So I think tomorrow pretty much dominates this fight from Bell the bell.
00:58:46
I think it's gonna be, um it's going to be a fire fight for the 1st 2.5 rounds.
00:58:52
And then I think, uh, Usman, just six into second gear in the later portions of 34 or five, just by grinding him out against the cage, picking them up, taking them down.
00:59:03
You know, rinse and repeat staying at distance, and what's gonna happen is kill what's gonna have toe damaged elite leg of Usman early and often on make him, uh, you know, switching stance because that's the only way he's really gonna beat Houston on the feet as well.
00:59:20
So I think Guzman takes his all day, retains the title.
00:59:23
Andi he's gonna face He's got a face off against Kobe Covington again, I think, because that Leon Edwards and, uh, comes out tomorrow.
00:59:33
Fight is off the card on March 13th and now the U S.
00:59:38
C.
00:59:39
Is looking to, um, put Leon Edwards against Kobe Covington in that fight like that base like that.
00:59:47
I still think Kobe coming to, like, rolls all day over Edwards, though.
00:59:52
Yeah, and I like the government.
00:59:54
And honestly, once you get past his gim****, he's a really good fighter.
00:59:59
No, he's a great fighting.
01:00:01
Once you get past the gim****, it's like I got to respect this guy.
01:00:05
No, he's a fantastic fight.
01:00:06
I mean, going into the fifth round, it was it was a stalemate.
01:00:11
I mean, two fighters had it 11 for Usman, one for Kobe and the other one didn't know who the **** that Who the **** was winning? Eso Yeah, I think a rematch is definitely in the Karzai.
01:00:26
I think they were gonna duke it out again, and I think is gonna be another great fight.
01:00:30
But yeah, that's our breakdown for you.
01:00:32
See, 2 58.
01:00:33
So it's Ah, it's almost 11 o'clock.
01:00:35
We got fights coming, named short couple hours, you know, 20 less than 24 hours away.
01:00:40
So let Z get this money this weekend, guys.
01:00:44
Ah, lot of money to be made.
01:00:45
Uh, I'm looking forward to it.
01:00:47
Before we go.
01:00:49
I need a shout out our sponsors guy's head over to may escape dot com and get the best male grooming products on the market.
01:00:56
Use promo code TFT a 20 for 20% off your order and free shipping.
01:01:02
And guys head over to MME.
01:01:04
Power our dot com.
01:01:05
You can check out my make our predictions.
01:01:08
We got a ton of great articles on there as well.
01:01:11
Great enemy content all around.
01:01:13
My man.
01:01:14
Peter working everybody finds you on social media.
01:01:18
All right? You guys confined me out.
01:01:19
Why so serious? Mm, a on Twitter on instagram Or follow me on Peter Pettis.
01:01:26
Also, you guys can now follow me on tick top.
01:01:29
Uh, event Thio create a tick tock.
01:01:33
But now it's actually been pretty cool.
01:01:36
I do.
01:01:37
Kind of like making the videos on there makes it a lot easier to move over Thio YouTube.
01:01:41
And I'm not YouTube to move over to Instagram and Facebook to come over a lot cleaner, but yeah, not follow me.
01:01:47
Also, if you guys want my picks, my official picks, I'm coming off a four and one, which includes hitting my parlay.
01:01:54
Um, that one is Edgar, unfortunately, but yeah, great.
01:01:59
Um, great card last week.
01:02:01
I'm looking forward to this one.
01:02:03
I could give you guys my free picks, which are definitely below and Adolfo, but definitely parlay those two.
01:02:10
And maybe if you're feeling good, I'm actually over here looking at the way in picture, and it makes me go tomorrow even more.
01:02:18
Uh, huge.
01:02:21
You're massive.
01:02:23
Yeah.
01:02:24
So even looking at this way in picture, it makes me become even more heavy on tomorrow.
01:02:29
Honestly, but yeah, those are my picks.
01:02:32
And hey, thanks for tuning in, peeps.
01:02:34
All right, you guys are gonna find me at fight ****yst on Twitter, the fight ****ysts on instagram and Facebook and guys head over to the fight ****yst dot com.
01:02:42
Get my picture right now.
01:02:44
It's only 25 bucks on.
01:02:46
We're gonna make a ton of money this weekend.
01:02:48
We made a ton of money last weekend.
01:02:50
I told everybody was getting their money back from ****ing January's **** of a month.
01:02:56
I told you I was getting it back.
01:02:57
We got it back, and then some were keeping the momentum going this weekend.
01:03:03
So let's get that money.
01:03:04
And we will see you all next weekend, next Friday as well.
01:03:09
Same time around the same time.
01:03:11
But we'll see you then.
01:03:12
You guys have a great night and we'll see you cashing out at the ticket window until next time.
01:03:18
Audio.
01:03:19
You got great, dude.

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